, ,

The Big, Bold and Ugly

Since July of 2014 the big cap stocks have continued to make new highs as investors dump more and more money into the stock market. Overall bullishness on the stock market is now at extremely high levels which typically happen before a major stock market correction and sometimes start a full blown bear market.

While the average investor continues to become more and more bullish, the market breadth/health has been rapidly deteriorating. Unless you are market savvy you would not know how weak the market actually is and this always leads to strong losses and drawdowns for the uninformed investor.

What we know and most do not about this rising market, is that the big cap stocks in the SP500 index appear to be holding the overall market up and masking the weakness. So as investors become more bullish at these lofty levels putting more money into generic funds that push the SP500 higher, we see strong selling and unwinding of the more leveraged position like small cap stocks.

Over the past couple years the SP500 has formed a series of bullish corrections and running corrections. But the current formation is that of a bearish mega phone pattern and these typically point to lower prices.

SP500 BIG CAP STOCKS:

spy1

 

THE BOLD STOCKS:

I have always liked to follow the NYSE index because its a basket of 1900 stocks with 1500 of them being U.S companies. Its breadth/strength makes it a much better indicator of the market performance than the more narrow indexes with less stocks.

While this index remains in a bull market, it only looks as though it’s a few months away from a possible reversal and confirmation of a new bear market.

nyse

 

THE UGLY:

If you have ever read Stan Weinstein’s book then you know he followed GM share price closely. He believed that what GM did, the stock market would follow, to some extent. GM was/is an early leader of the US economy and stock prices in general.

The chart below paints a clear picture of the Stage 1 Accumulation in 2011- 2012, and also of the Stage 3 Distribution phase in 2013 – 2014. GM shares have traded down literally from the first week of the year and have now broken below critical support. Things could get interesting…

GM1

 

MY TRADING CONCLUSION:

In short, I remain bullish on the stock market with both my short term and investing outlook but I am very cautious and have closed out several large positions recently. Cash is king and I plan to protect, rather than invest my nest egg when risk is higher than normal.

Short term trading where trades only last 3-10 days is the way to go at this stage of the game. Some recent winning ETF trades with my ETF newsletter www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com have been in SCO, a quick bounce trade in UCO, REM, and our current trade as of last week EEM.

The majority of my investment capital is traded with my automated trading system. It trades the S&P500 index directly in my brokerage account catching these 3-10 day swings in the market saving me time while reducing my emotional attachment to the market.

blackfriday1

Chris Vermeulen

, , , ,

Bonds-the fourth quarter trade of 2014

If you have been paying close attention to the stock market, market internals/breadth, and bonds for the past three months, you’ve likely come to the same conclusion that I have.

The US stock market is showing signs of severe weakness with the market breadth and leading indicators pointing to a sharp correction for stock prices.

With fewer stocks trading above their 50 and 200 day moving averages each week, while the broad market S&P 500 index continues to rising, this bearish divergence is a red flag for long term investors.

When a handful of large-cap stocks are the only things propelling the stock market higher while the majority of small-cap stocks are falling you should keep new position sizes smaller than normal and start moving your protective stops up to lock in gains/reduce losses in case the market rolls over sooner than later.

Small cap stocks are typically a leading indicator of the broad market. The Russell 2000 index is what investors should keep a close eye on because it’s the index of small-cap stocks. Since March of this year, the Russell 2000 been trading sideways and actually making new lows. This tells us that big-money speculative traders are rotating out of the stock market and into other investments like high dividend paying stocks, blue chips, and likely bonds.

Looking at the chart below I have overlaid the S&P 500 index and the price of bonds. History has a way of repeating itself; although it may never feel the same and the economy may be different, price action of investments have the tendency to repeat.

In 2011 we saw the stock market and bonds form specific patterns. These patterns clearly show that money was rotating out of the stock market and into bonds. During times of uncertainty in the stocks market money has the tendency to move into bonds, as they are known as a safe haven. Bonds tend to reverse before the stock market does, so if you have never tracked the price chart of bonds before, then you should start.

SPXvsBONDS

From late 2013 until now bonds and the stock market have repeated the same price patterns from 2011. If history is going to repeat itself, which the technical and statistical analysis is also favoring, we should see the stock market correct 18% to 30% in the near future. If this happens bonds will rally to new highs.

It’s important to realize the chart above is weekly. Each candle represents five trading days, and four candles represents one month. So while this chart points to an imminent selloff from a visual standpoint, keep in mind this could take 2 to 3 months to unfold or longer. The market always has a way of dragging things out. If the market can’t shake you out, it will wait you out.

So if you are short the market or planning to short the market be very cautious as it could be choppy for the next several weeks and possibly months before price truly breaks down and we see price freefall.

To get my pre-market video analysis each day, and trade alerts visit: www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen

, ,

Solar Energy Sector ETF Breaking Out – How to Trade It

During the past couple months several indexes, sectors and commodities have sold off more than 10 – 20%. But now some are looking like new buying opportunities. Over the next week I will bring a few of these trades to your attention as they start to unfold.

Today we are looking at the TAN solar ETF. This sector recently had a 23% hair cut in price. A 20-25% correction in price is a typical intermediate correction for a fast moving sector. The price correction has pulled the sector down to its 150 and 200 simple day moving averages. These levels tend to act as long term support for investors, a buying point.

Many of the individual stocks within this sector are starting to pop and breakout of bullish price patterns. These individual stock prices point to higher prices for TAN going forward.

Be aware of crude oil…. I do think that as long as the price of crude oil stays up solar stocks will continue to rise overall. But if oil starts to roll over and break down, TAN will struggle.

My Technical Take on The Chart:

Big picture analysis shows a powerful uptrend with bullish consolidation.

Intermediate analysis shows a falling bullish wedge, test of moving averages, and a reversal breakout pattern.

tan

Short term analysis shows we are at a resistance level and we will likely see a pause of pullback over the next few days before it goes higher.

TANshortterm

TAN Trading Conclusion:

If price closed back below the $39.00 I would consider this bounce/rally failed.

Get My Trade Ideas Delivered To Your Inbox FREE: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen

Disclaimer: I do not own shares of TAN as this point, but may buy some in the near future.

, ,

How to make money from uncertainty

If you have been struggling with your trading the past few months with most of your stocks losing value as the broad market continues to make new highs, you are not alone. There is a common reason why your individual stocks have been up so hard the past two months and I will tell you why in the next educational trading video I send you next week.
 
In the mean time subscribers of TheGoldAndOilGuy Newsletter pocketed 6.3% on our EDV bond ETF last week. We still hold a core position but the easy money in that asset class has now been made.
 
See Chart Below:

 
Become a more educated and consistent trader with my trade alert newsletter: www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Sincerely,
Chris Vermeulen
www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com
www.AlgoTrades.net

, ,

ETF Trading Newsletter: Nasdaq Shorting Opportunity

It looks as though the Nasdaq is about ready for another leg lower. Watch these key resistance levels for a short trade this week.

Get These Trade Alerts Every Week with my ETF Trading Newsletter

,

ETF Trading Newsletter: Live Trade of the Month – It’s a bit Corny

ETF Trading Newsletter: In early February I started watching the CORN ETF very closely for a possible new bull market starting and a long entry point. Many of the other commodities had already posted strong rallies while corn sat on the side lines.

The Corn ETF is designed to follow the price of the continuous corn futures contracts. This commodity looked as though it was forming a base (launch pad) for the new rally and possible major bull market to start.

This post walks you through each step of the way from entering the Corn ETF trade, adding to a winning position, tightening our stops, locking in partial profits at our first price target etc.. In fact myself and subscribers are still long the Corn ETF as of today with my ETF trading newsletter.

________________________________________

 

ETF Trading Newsletter – CORN ALERT #1

We have been watching the commodities index rally for a few weeks now with natural gas, coffee, sugar, gold, silver and several others jump in price. We have been watching the GCC ETF which is a basket of several commodities to get a feel for the commodities market as a whole.

While most of the commodities have posted some solid gains, CORN has yet to pop in price. Corn looks to be forming a stage 1 basing pattern and the volume/money flowing into this fund suggest new money is moving into corn because it looks as though it will be the last to pop and rally in price.

This is similar to how we entered the silver trade a few weeks back. Everything else in the precious metals sector popped and silver lagged giving us a high probability setup.

Both the short and long term the charts of corn look bullish. As usual I will lock in some gains if we get a pop in the commodity, then let the balance ride with a break even stop. If corn is entering a new bull market phase (Stage 2) I want to hold some long term. There is potential for a 19%-30% rise in value.

Corn Trade Information:

Buy CORN etf, Stop $29.90, Downside Risk 6%, Portfolio Size 6%

ETF Trading Newsletter - Corn

 

________________________________________

 

ETF Trading Newsletter – CORN ALERT #2

New CORN Trade Order Pending

During the past couple weeks we have seen the CORN ETF trade sideways with fading volume. Recently we have seen a couple strong buying days in CORN which I call GET-READY spikes. These typically indicate some big money (insiders) are accumulating a position ahead of good news.

We are currently long CORN already and in the money, which is why I like this second setup even more. Because we already have a profit buffer, making the risk here is lower than normal. If you have ready some of the market wizard books you will also pickup on how the most successful traders pyramid up (average up) in winning trades.

My Plan Of Attack: I only want to buy on strength here focusing on entering the trade once is breaks a previous pivot high which in this case is: $34.06

Trade Setup:

Place a Buy-Stop order at $34.06, GTC (Good Till Canceled), 8% of portfolio position size

This type of order will enter you into the trade if price rallies and breaks that price point so you do not need to sit around and watch the charts. If you do not know this type of order just Google it only or call your broker. It is a very simple and basic order type.

 

 

________________________________________

 

ETF Trading Newsletter – CORN ALERT #3

CORN Position Added

This afternoon our CORN trade order was executed. Yesterday we set a Buy-Stop order so we get entered the commodity if price starts to breakout to the upside. These types of order are just like a stop order in respect that you just enter it and the market and broker do all the work after that.

This is why trading with a plan/strategy is much easier and less stressful. If you have a plan, do the leg work and execute it, things do not seem difficult or stressful. Problem is most traders don’t have a plan and even if they do, most times they don’t follow it. The result is a confused, stressed out trader/investor second guessing their every move.

I have updated the portfolio in the member’s area so you can review positions and protective stops.

 

________________________________________

 

ETF Trading Newsletter – CORN ALERT #4

CORN Position Adjustment – Locking in Gains

CORN has been moving in our favor for about a month now. Today’s pop in price has reached my short term measured move using fibonacci extensions and I feel it is time to lock in some gains and move our protective stop to breakeven.

We entered this position twice and your average price per share should be around $32.96.

I am moving my stop to breakeven and selling half of my position today. Current price is $35.10, as we are up 6.5%.

See chart below for a visual:

ETF Trade Newsletter

________________________________________

 

Why You Need My ETF Trading Newsletter as a Self-Directed Trader

You know it and I know it, trading is extremely difficult, time consuming and can be expensive if not done properly. What I have shown you above is verbatim of what subscribers to my ETF Trading Newsletter received thus far for the corn trade.

I do updated and show the charts live each day in my daily video forecast which members have access to but that is just to keep everyone up to speed on the trade to help manage their emotions and prepare for what it to happen before it happens.

Consider joining my group of happy traders today at www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Corn ETF Trading Newsletter

Consider joining my group of happy traders today at www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen

 

,

Gold Forecast & Fresh Good News!!

Watch here to learn more about my improved gold forecast and etf newsletter…

 

Also You may want to see these three new long term investment plays:
http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/next-three-bull-markets-starting/

 

And my unique way to gauge the market strength:
http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/gm-gs-xom-broad-market-trading-strategy/

 

JOIN ME WHILE I TRADE FOR CONSISTENT LONG TERM GROWTH – Click Here

, , ,

The Next Three Bull Markets Are Starting

As we all know, there is always a bull market somewhere…

In this video report I will share with you the next three big investments for 2014 which are unfolding as we you read this. And Precious metals (gold, silver & miners) are only one of the bull markets…

You have not heard anything about these sectors on CNBC, radio, and no one is writing about them. Because of this, it has me really excited because the more people that are caught off guard with a move the bigger upside potential there is.

All you have to do is watch the video to find out…

Watch Video Now:

Get All My Trades and Investments with my ETF Trading Newsletter

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

, , ,

What GM, GS and XOM Do, So Does the Broad Market – Trading Strategy

Over the years working with professional traders I found it interesting how each individual has their bellwether stock they follow to gauge the stock markets trend and identify reversals before they take place.

About 10 years ago I traded with a floor trader who swore that whatever GS (Goldman Sachs) did the market followed. Another said he only used XOM (Exxon Mobile), while Stan Weinstein says GM (General Motors) was the stock to follow.

While each of these traders have been highly successful with their bellwether stock, I wanted to cover these in more detail and show you have to get the best of each of their strategies working for you. This will help you properly time the market, identify the overall market health and at which point you should be getting long or short stocks in your portfolio.

Watch this quick video below:

If you would like to successfully trade both bull and bear markets then join my trading and investing newsletter today and catch the next hot sectors for 2014 using my ETF Trading Strategies.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

,

My #1 Money Making Chart Pattern

Over the years Chris Vermeulen has identified a price pattern that consistently makes me money time and time again. This pattern is not found in books, nor is it talked about in any trading course or by any elite traders.

What Is It And Why Doesn’t Anyone Talk About It?

Well that is a good question and he thinks the main reason is because no one knows about it. He has mentioned it to a lot of traders and many of them are professional traders yet it completely goes over their head or they are dismissing it because they don’t want others to find out about it.

The other reason could be because traders don’t know what to call it. He gave it a simple name as he just named it what it is, so it is self-explanatory.

While he sees and trade this secret price pattern on all time frames (it does not work on tick charts), the longer the time frame in which it forms the better. If the pattern forms a weekly chart then you are looking at a major investing opportunity that has an average return of 57% return within a few weeks. The daily chart pattern tends to provide 10- 20% return within a few days of this pattern forming.

Subscribers of hisETF Portfolio Newsletter profited twice in February from it locking in 10% and 21.9% trading simple ETFs.

He also mentioned this pattern does not form on baskets of investments like a sector or index. It only takes please on individual investments like stocks and commodities.

Here is what a fellow subscriber said:
Chris, Over the years, I’ve learned so much from your videos.  One of the set ups I love most, because it has been very profitable is the must be a paid subscriber pattern.  I believe subscribe  is now forming the last part of this pattern.

So if you want to be making these trades with Chris join his ETF Trading Newsletter todayETF Newsletter
Chris Vermeulen