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Mid-August Is A Critical Turning Point For US Stocks

Our cycle and predictive modeling solutions have been suggesting that Mid-August 2019 will likely prompt a major inflection point in the US stock markets and we have been attempting to warn our followers about this for months.  Our continued efforts to identify this big breakdown price move in term of timing and expected range have led us to believe the outcome could be at least a -10% to -13% downside price collapse – possibly larger.

Post 1: NEXT BULL AND BEAR MARKETS ARE NOW SET UP

Post 2: TECHNICALS SHOWS AUG/SEPT MARKET TOP PATTERN SHOULD FORM

Our research team now believes that August 19 (+/- 5 days) will likely be the critical price inflection point/price apex that we have been searching for.  Our cycle and other predictive modeling tools are suggesting that this date will become critical for the markets future price trends and current support/resistance levels.  We believe that some type of new event or price event will take place sometime between August 14 and August 19 and that this event will lead to a new bearish price trend setup to break current support levels as well as begin a downside price move that should attempt a minim of -10% to -13% before attempting to find support.

Volatility Index Signaling Selloff

This VIX Weekly chart highlights our expectations with regards future VIX activity and the initiation of the VIX SPIKE that will coincide with our expectations of a price collapse in the US stock market.  We believe the VIX level will continue to move moderately higher over the next two to three weeks before the August 19 date – possibly as high as 16 to 18.  We believe the VIX will begin the spike move from levels near 14 to 16 (just before August 19).

Transportation Index Underperforming = Bear Market

This TRAN weekly chart clearly shows the Pennant formation (BLUE LINES) and the critical price support channel (Upward sloping RED LINE) that we believe are critical to the future outcome of this breakdown price move setup happening on August 19, 2019.

First, the price must attempt to reach the Apex of the Pennant formation, then attempt a breakout/breakdown move.  We believe the breakdown move is the higher probability outcome of this Pennant formation based on technical and price pattern details.

Once the breakdown move begins, price support near the price channel (RED LINE) will become critical as a future support level.  If that level is broken, then we believe the TRAN may attempt to fall to levels near the middle of the Standard Deviation price channel range – near $4000.

Dow Jones Industrial Average At Inflection Point

This DIA Weekly chart shows a similar price pattern, although the Pennant formation is a bit harder to see.  The Pennant formation on this DIA chart is set up across the Double Top price level, near $269.50, and the upward sloping price channel line (RED LINE).  The 2018 deep price low sets up “leg 1” and we believe we have completed “leg 4” of this Pennant formation already.  This leads us to believe the Double Top formation in conjunction with our other research components suggests the markets are currently setting up for a sideways/rounded top formation over the next 20 to 30+ days before beginning a moderate breakdown price move headed into August 19, 2019.

We believe there is a strong possibility that the key psychological levels ($300 SPY, $3000 ES and $30k INDU) are likely to be breached throughout this Q2 earnings season.  We believe that key psychological price level may be the “trigger point” for an immediate price reversal and the beginning of the setup for our expected August 19 price collapse.

Trend and Trading Conclusion:

We urge traders to understand the risks that are currently prevalent in the markets as prices continue to trade near all-time highs.  Our suggestion would be to pull 40% to 60% off the top right now (or at least before early August) in preparation for this next price rotation.

Watch the US Dollar, Gold, Oil and the Transportation Index for signs of weakness that may erode price support before the August 19th date.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months – most traders/investors have simply not been looking for it.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar Shipped To You Free.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

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Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Summer is Breaking Out—and so is Gold – Weekly Wrap-Up

Summer is Breaking Out—and so is Gold - Weekly Wrap-Up (June 21, 2019)

Today marks the summer solstice: the official first day of summer and the longest day of the year. And as gold continues its breakout, it could be a long day indeed for bankers.

On this edition of the Wrap-Up, Eric Sprott gives you all the gold and silver news you need, including:

• Why top of range targets aren’t as crazy as they might seem

• How the breakout will affect the mining shares

• Plus: Why the U.S. price will catch up fast

“I love going back to the call we had three weeks ago, when I said I’d read an article that I really believed in that suggested gold would have a rally for 5-7 weeks… We’ve had three of them now! This rally started at $1275. We’re at $1400. That gentleman, Chris Vermeulen, and I’ve got to give him credit for being prescient… The first target was $1450, but he actually thought it was going to go to $1650. And I want the listeners to think about that: $1650! What would happen?”

 

Chris Vermeulen Comments:

We have a good pulse on the major markets and can profit during times when most others can’t which is why you should join my Wealth Trading Newsletter for index, metals, and energy trade alerts.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these super cycles are going to last years. These super cycles starting to take place will go into 2020 and beyond which we lay out in our new PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

I am going to give away and ship out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans listed below, and you will receive:

1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)

2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND 
GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!
Free Shipping!

Chris Vermeulen
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

When you contemplate negative interest rates, I would rather own Gold…

With global equities taking the plunge, bond market turmoil, talk of negative interest rates and a bullish COT Silver Report, the future for Gold and precious metals just keeps getting brighter.

Add to that the threat of Mexican tariffs and the push for a Gold-backed currency in Malaysia and you have the makings of an exciting Weekly Wrap Up.

Eric cheers on the Raptors, chimes in on Gold and answers some of your questions this week on the Sprott Money Weekly Wrap Up.

Get Chris Vermeulen’s Gold Swing and Investing Trade Signals

How Chinese Trade Issues Will Drive Market Trends

It is becoming evident that the US/Chinese trade issues are going to become a point of contention for the markets going forward.  We’ve been review as much news as possible in an attempt to build a consensus for the future of the US markets and global markets.  As of last week, it appears any potential trade deal with China has reset back to square one.  The news we are reading suggests that China wants to reset their commitments with the US, remove all tariffs and wants the US to commit to buying certain levels of Chinese goods in the future.  Additionally, China has yet to commit to stopping the IP/Technology theft from US companies – which is a very big contention for the US.

This suggests the past 6+ months of trade talks have completely broken down and that this trade issue will likely become a market driver over the next 12+ months.  The global markets had anticipated a deal to be reached by the end of March 2019.  At that time, Trump announced that he was extending talks with China without installing any new tariffs.  The intent was to show commitment with China to reach a deal at that time – quickly.

It appears that China had different plans – the intention to delay and ignore US requests.  It is very likely that China has worked to secure some type of “plan B” type of scenario over the past 6+ months and they may feel they are negotiating from a position of power at this time.  Our assumption is that both the US and China feel their interests are best served by holding their cards close to their chests while pushing the other side to breakdown through prolonged negotiations.

Our observations are that an economic shift is continuing to take place throughout the globe that may see these US/China trade issues become the forefront issue over the next 12 to 24 months – possibly lasting well past the November 2020 US Presidential election cycle.  It seems obvious that China is digging in for a prolonged negotiation process while attempting to hold off another round of tariffs from the US.  Additionally, China is dealing with an internal process of trying to shift away from “shadow banking” to eliminate the risks associated with unreported corporate and private debt issues.

The limited, yet still valid, resources we have from within China are suggesting that layoffs are very common right now and that companies are not hiring as they were just a few months ago. One of our friends/sources suggested the company he worked for has been laying off employees for over 30 days now and he just found out he was laid-off last week.  He works in the financial field.

We believe the long term complications resulting from a prolonged US/China trade war may create a foundational shift within the global markets over the next 16 to 24+ months headed into the November 2020 US Elections.  We’ve already authored articles about how the prior 24 months headed into major US elections tend to be filled with price rotation while an initial downside price move is common within about 16+ months of a major US election event.  This year may turn out to prompt an even bigger price rotation.

US Stock Market volatility just spiked to levels well above 20 – levels not seen since October/November 2018, when the markets fell nearly 20% before the end of 2018.  The potential for increased price volatility over the next 12+ months seems rather high with all of the foreign positioning and expectations that are milling around.  It seems like the next 16+ months could be filled with incredibly high volatility, price rotation and opportunity for skilled traders.

Our primary concern is that the continued trade war between the US and China spills over into other global markets as a constricted price range based trading environment.  Most of the rest of the world is still trying to spark some increased levels of economic growth after the 2008-09 market crisis.  The current market environment does not settle well for investor confidence, growth, and future success.  The combination of a highly contested US Presidential election, US/China trade issues, a struggling general foreign market, currency fluctuations attempting to mitigate capital risks and other issues, it seems the global stock markets are poised for a very big increase in volatility and price rotation over the next 2 years or so.

Our first focus is on the Hang Seng Index.  This Weekly chart shows just how dramatic the current price rotation has been over the past few weeks and how a defined price channel could be setting up in the HSI to prompt a much larger downside objective.  Should continue trade issues persist and should China, through the course of negotiating with the US, expose any element of risk perceived by the rest of the world, the potential for further price contraction is very real.  China is walking a very fine line right now as Trump is pushing issues (trade issues and IP/Technology issues) to the forefront of the trade negotiations.  In our opinion, the very last thing China wants is their dirty laundry, shady deals and political leadership strewn across the global news cycles over the next 24+ months.

 

The DAX Weekly Index is showing a similar price pattern.  A very clear upper price trend channel which translates into a very clear downside price objective is price continues lower.  Although the DAX is not related directly to the US/China trade negotiations, the global markets are far more interconnected now than ever before.  Any rotation lower in China will likely result in a moderate price decrease in many of the major global market indexes.

 

As we’ve suggested within our earlier research posts, US election cycles tend to prompt massive price rotations when the election cycles are intense. In our next post PART II of this report, we talk about what happened in the past election cycles reviewing the monthly charts and weekly SP500 index charts which are very telling in what could be about to happen next for the stock market from an investors standpoint.

For active swing traders, you are going to love our daily trading analysis. On May 1st we talked about the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” and that is excactly what is happening now right on queue. In fact, we closed out our SDS position on Thursday for a quick 3.9% profit and our other new trade started Thursday is up 18% already.

Second, my birthday is only three days away and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.

Right now I am going to give away and shipping out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. I only have 7 left as they are going fast so be sure to upgrade your membership to a longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans, and you will receive:

1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)

2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)

I only have 13 more silver rounds I’m giving away
so upgrade or join now before its too late!

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!

Happy May Everyone!

Chris Vermeulen

 

 

Stay tuned for PART II next!