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Is The Coronavirus Bullish For Stocks?

Earnings volatility has certainly been big.  Tesla pushed the markets much higher early this week and the US stock markets have continued the upward momentum after the State Of The Union address and the acquittal of President Trump on Wednesday.  Still, we continue to believe this rally may be a “fake-out” rally with respect to the fallout from the Wuhan virus.  Certainly, foreign investors are continuing to pour capital into the US stock market as the strength of the US Dollar and the strong US economy is drawing investment from all areas of the globe.

We believe the scope of this parabolic rally in the US stock market should actually concern skilled traders.  Markets just don’t go straight up for very long.  The last time this happened was in the 1970s and 1980s.  Very minor volatility during that time prompted a big move higher in the US stock market that set up the eventual DOT COM collapse.

Oil, Shipping, Transportation, Consumer, Manufacturing, and Retail will all take a hit because of the Wuhan virus.  We’ve, personally, received notices from certain suppliers that factory closures in China will greatly delay the fulfillment of orders.  Our opinion is that nations may have to close all or a majority of their cities, ports, and activities in Asia for at least 90+ days in order to allow this virus event to peak and subside.  We don’t see any other way to contain this other than to shut down entire cities and nations.

The US Fed and Central Banks are doing everything possible to continue the economic growth and stability of global economics.  Yet, the reality may suddenly set in that without risking a global virus contagion, nations may be forced to actually shut down all non-essential activities for well over 90+ days (possibly even longer).  If you could stop and consider what it would be like for half of the world, and many of the major manufacturing and supply hubs, to shut down for more than 3 to 6 months while a deadly virus is spreading.

Repo lending continues to show that liquidity is a problem.  We believe this problem could get much worse.  Skilled traders need to be prepared for a sudden and potentially violent change in the direction of the global stock markets.

$TNX – 10 YEAR US TREASURE YIELD DAILY CHART

30 YEAR TREASURY BOND PRICE – DAILY CHART

There is now a solid wall of inversions in all the treasury notes and bills.  The 10-year yield is inverted with 6-month and shorter durations.  The 30-year long bond dipped below 2.0% for the third time and is just 6 basis points from a record low.

Prepare to capitalize on this “crowd behavior” in the near future.  Right now, the US stock market is pushing higher as Q4 earnings drive future expectations.  Yet, be prepared for the reality of the situation going forward.

This Wuhan virus may present a very real “black swan” event.  At the moment, the US stock market appears to want to rally as earnings and economic data continues to impress investors.  Overall, the real risk to the markets is a broader global economic contagion related to the Wuhan virus and the potential it may have on foreign and regional economies.

Next week is going to be critical for many things I feel. Virus contagion growth, factory closures, Oil breakdown follow through, equities breakout follow through, and the precious metals pending move.

We locked more gains this week with one of our positions as we rebalance our portfolio holdings for these new big trends to emerge. If you want to know where the markets are moving each day and follow my trades then join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Broad Market Sector Rotation Starts In 60+ Days – Part I

We have been writing about the strong potential for a deeper market rotation in the US and global markets for well over 60+ days.  In fact, our researchers predicted an August 2019 breakdown date based on Super-Cycle patterns that, eventually, pushed into 2020 as the US/China trade negotiations and other global news kept global markets in a low volatility bullish trend throughout the end of 2019.

We’ve highlighted some of our research posts over the past 30+ days to help illustrate the technical and price patterns that our research team has identified and shared.

December 20, 2019: WHO SAID TRADERS AND INVESTOR ARE EMOTIONAL RIGHT NOW?

December 16, 2019: CURRENT EQUITIES RALLY SIMILARITIES TO 1999

December 2, 2019: NEW PREDICTED TRENDS FOR SPX, GOLD, OIL NAT GAS

Technical Analysis is based on the premise that price reflects all news and expectations the instant that news or data is known.  A common term in Technical Analysis is “Bias”.  This is when the price trend is substantially more Bullish or Bearish by nature or expectation.  Bias occurs when investing conditions mostly eliminate risk (for the Bullish side) and opportunity (for the Bearish side).  When traders feel they can enter trades without any real risks (trading Long) or when they feel there is no opportunity for the markets to rally (trading Short), then a BIAS exists in the markets.

When the global markets rotate and volatility extends to much higher levels, the markets change from a “Biased Trend” to what Technical Analysts call “True Price Exploration”.  When this happens, price begins to operate under the price principles of Gann, Fibonacci and Elliot Wave theories where price attempts to rotate to new lows or highs in an attempt to “seek out” clear support and resistance levels before establishing a new longer-term “Biased trend”.

We believe the global markets are about to enter a very volatile period of sector rotation.  Certain sectors may see a much deeper price exploration than others.  For example, consumer product manufacturers focused on US and European markets may see very limited risks compared to the Industrial Supply sector where a global economic slowdown could really hurt their future expectations.

These two Market Sector Maps (source www.Finviz.com) highlight the change in the direction and scope of these changes over the past week and the past 30 days.

THIS FIRST SECTOR MAP IS A 1 WEEK SECTOR MAP

THIS SECOND SECTOR MAP IS A 1 MONTH SECTOR MAP

Pay very close attention to the sectors that were moderately or strongly weak in the 1-month chart and continue to weaken in the 1-week chart (Financial, Property, Telecommunications, Telecom Services, Healthcare, Biotech, Basic Materials, Industrial Goods, Lodging, Resorts, Travel, Hospitality, Food, Packaging, Textile.  The list is rather impressive and it suggests this Coronavirus has somewhat panicked the markets and consumers.  Yes, many of these consumers will continue to go out for food, entertainment, and other essentials – but what if 15% to 25% of them cut back on these activities and decide to stay home more often and watch movies or play games?

I remember in 1990 when Desert Storm started.  Just before this war started, the US economy was clicking right along.  I remember that within 10 days of the war starting, things started to change on the roadways and markets.  I also noticed a change in consumer spending with a friend’s computer gaming distribution company.  All of a sudden, consumers slowed their external purchasing activities and focused more on protectionist activities.  We believe this same type of event is going to quickly unfold within the US and other nations as this Corona Virus extends over the next 30+ days.

This is why I believe the volatility of price and market sector rotation will continue for at least 60+ days as the globe attempts to contain and eliminate the risks associated with this virus.  We understand the risks in the US and Canada are very small at the moment, but that has not stopped shoppers from emptying the shelves at the local hardware and pharmacy stores for “surgical masks” and supplies.  Trust us, people are already well into the protectionist-mode and are preparing for what may happen over the next 30+ days.

This creates an opportunity for technical investors and traders.  This potential for deeper price rotations and extended opportunities resulting from an end of bias volatile price exploration allows us to target very quick and exciting trades.

In part II of this research post, we’ll highlight three specific sectors we believe are poised for great trade setups as a result of the volatility and rotation in the global markets.  Join us in our quest to create incredible profits from these bigger trends – visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com today.

Chris Vermeulen

Corona Virus and Manufacturing Shutdowns Will Affect Companies

A technical trader talks about this week’s large price swings, Coronavirus, and how to trade this volatility.

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A Combination Topping Pattern Is Setting Up

Our research team has highlighted a number of technical and other factors that point to a very real potential of a major market top setting up across the global markets.  We’ve highlighted a number of research articles over the past 30 to 45 days that clearly illustrate our interpretation of the US and global markets.

Our research team believes the Coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan china will cripple economic expansion and consumer economic activity in China and much of SE Asia over the next few weeks and months.  If the virus spreads into India, it could quickly target large portions of India’s economic capabilities.  We are very early into this potential pandemic event.  The growth rates reported by China suggest only a 2~3% death rate, yet an almost exponential growth rate for the number of invested.  It started off below 100 about 10+ days ago and is now almost ready to break 10k.

Skilled traders must understand that the world is far more inter-connected economically and via transportation than it was even 50 years ago.  More people travel to various parts of the world more often than ever before.  More goods and services travel back and forth across oceans and continents than ever before.  This inter-connected world is actually quite small when you consider a student or vacationer can travel more than halfway around the planet in less than 35 hours, access two or three major transportation hubs (airports) and have direct contact to dozens of people and indirect contract to thousands of people within that span of time.

January 23, 2020: JANUARY 2018 STOCK MARKET REPEAT – YIKES!

December 20, 2019: WHO SAID TRADERS AND INVESTOR ARE EMOTIONAL RIGHT NOW?

December 16, 2019: CURRENT EQUITIES RALLY SIMILARITIES TO 1999

Our concern is, quite literally, that the growth of the number of infected people related to this Coronavirus is only just starting to explode.

One analyst we were watching on TV suggested waiting for a -5% price correction in high-value US equities before attempting to buy back into this weakness.  Knowing that any type of global pandemic even could continue to expand for many months, years of decades, we believe a large number of these analysts are failing to understand the total scope of this potential event.

Our research team believes the next 6 to 12 months will become very telling regarding the real economic contraction resulting from the Coronavirus spread.  We believe the initial measures governments and world organizations are taking will shrink economic opportunity by at least 10 to 20% for certain nations.  If the virus explodes into Africa, or the Middle East, or North America, then we have another set of problems to deal with.  At that point, the economic ramifications could result in a 30 to 50% contraction in certain segments of the US and Global economy.

Let us try to explain our thinking…

No, people will not stop buying toilet paper, toothpaste, food, and other essential supplies, but they will likely slow their purchases at Starbucks, Movie Theaters, Social Events, Traveling to unknown areas and shopping in large exposed areas (big box stores).  Anything that is perceived as a risk will be viewed as potentially dangerous and unwanted.

Consumers and Businesses are like flocks of birds or schools of fish, they all seem to turn to follow the others and move as a single group or “beast”.  If consumers start to pull back as this issue extends, we expect the “beast” will follow this trend until the risk is minimized.

Even though the US economic numbers from Q4 are still landing with very strong numbers – remember this data does not include any real data from the current quarter.  Everything looks really good if you ignore the threat of the Coronavirus going forward (which is rather foolish).  Q1 and Q2 2020 could become a completely different set of numbers.

January 29, 2020: ARE WE SETTING UP FOR A WATERFALL SELLOFF?

We believe the waterfall even that we highlighted earlier this week is still a very valid interpretation of the global market future reaction throughout most of Q1 and Q2 of this year.  We don’t see any real alternative other than price contraction as long as the Coronavirus continues to wreak havoc across the planet.  If the virus is suddenly contained and diminishing, or cured, then we believe the global perception will change back to positive very quickly.

We believe the first waterfall event is already taking place.  We believe the second waterfall event will produce a downside price move targeting recent support near $307 on the SPY.  We believe any further breakdown of the price below this support level will prompt a downside price move targeting the $260 level.  These rotations will come in waves or waterfall events and could target various sectors of the US and global markets.

Pay attention to what the Transportation Index is doing as this outbreak continues.  Slowing consumer activity means essential items will still be in high demand, but big-ticket items, cars, luxury, and vacations may see a dramatic slowing in sales and activity.  Even homes and apartments may slow in sales.  People tend to become very protective and secure in these economic modes.

The Transportation Index may initially fall to levels near 10,200 before finding any real support.  Then a further downside move may target longer-term support near 8,500.  Below that level..  well, let’s just say that below that level and we could be well into a very serious Bearish contraction phase of the global markets.

Take this time to reposition your assets and protect your value.  You can always redeploy your capital when you feel the time is right to jump back into the markets.  We believe the next 60 to 90 days will become very informative relating to the spread and capabilities of this virus and our ability to fight it.  Don’t let this volatility be something like 2009 when you look back and say “I should have known better”.

Join my ETF Trade Alert Newsletter – Wealth Building Newsletter if you like what you read here and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.  Visit our web site to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

The Black Swan Event Begins

As the Asian markets opened on late Sunday, traders expected a reactionary price move related to the threat of the Wuhan virus and the continued news of its spread.  The US Dow Jones futures markets opened close to -225 points lower on Sunday afternoon and were nearly -300 points lower within the first 25 minutes of trading.  Gold opened $10 higher and continued to rally to a level above $15 higher.

If this is early price activity, or a reactionary price move, related to fear of what may come, then the warnings signs are very clear that global traders and investors believe this virus outbreak may very well turn into a major Black Swan event.

Our research team believes a 5% to 8% rotation should be considered a normal reversion range where price may find immediate support and attempt to rally from these support levels.  Anything beyond 10% may set up a much bigger price reversion event, something akin to a Black Swan event.  Therefore, we are advising our friends and followers to take the necessary steps to protect your wealth and assets as this move continued to extend.

30-MINUTE YM FUTURES CHART

This 30-minute YM futures chart highlights the reactionary downside price move (GAP) taking place on the open of the Asian markets.  This GAP lower may be just the beginning of a much broader downside price move.  We are going to have to wait and see what happens related to the Wuhan virus over the next 14+ days.

30-MINUTE GOLD FUTURES CHART

Gold shot up nearly 1% in early trading on Sunday.  Fear is driving investors to pile into the precious metals markets.  As news of this virus continues to hit the news cycle, we expect metals will continue to push higher and higher – likely targeting the $1750 level in Gold.

If you want to see what the big money players own check out these gold charts and a very different interpretation of the gold COT Data here.

If you have not been following our research and if you have not already positioned your portfolio for this potential reversion event, then now would be a good time to start taking action.  Do some research on the 1855 Third Plague Event in China where more than 15 million people died (nearly 1.25% of the total global population at the time).  If those levels hold for this event, then possibly 60 to 80 million people may die over related to this event.

Oil is collapsing again and just his out downside target of $53. Our energy sector trade idea is up over 15% already.

Remember, all of this is speculation at this point.  Yet we urge traders to act now to take action to prevent further erosion of their wealth and retirement accounts.  Visit Technical Traders Ltd. to learn how we can help you plan for these events, protect your wealth, and find great trades.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997 I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles, I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Join my Wealth Building Newsletter if you like what you read here and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.  Visit our web site to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

Junior Gold Miners Setting Up For Another Rally

Our recent research suggests the US stock market may be entering a period of volatility that may include a broad market rotation/reversion event.  We believe this volatility event could begin to happen anytime over the next 10 to 30+ days.  The rally in the US stock market ending 2019 and carrying into 2020 appears to be setting up a “rally to a peak” type of price pattern. Please take a minute to review the following articles we’ve posted recently about this topic and how it relates to opportunities in Metals/Miners.

January 20, 2020: Q4 EARNINGS SETUP THE RALLY TO THE PEAK

January 15, 2020: SHIFTING UNDERCURRENTS IN THE US STOCK MARKET

The potential for a volatility spike resulting from a price peak formation (see the January 20, 2020 article above), could setup a moderately broad downside price reversion event that may prompt a 5% to 8%+ downside price correction.  If that happens, as we expect, over the next 5 to 10+ trading days, then precious metals and miners should explode to the upside as a “risk-on” trade moves capital into the metals market.

We believe the Miners (both Gold and Silver) are setting up for an explosive upside price move over the next 60+ days.  The reality of the global markets is that it appears to be setting up in a very similar manner to what happened in the late 1990s.  The rally in Rhodium, Palladium and Platinum are similar to the rally that took place in the late 1990s – just before the real explosion in Gold and Silver began in 2003-04.  The rally in Gold and Silver took place after a collapse event in 2000-2001 and setup a massive upside price event for Precious Metals and Miners.  You can read more of our research below.

January 16, 2020: PLATINUM BREAKS $1000 ON BIG RALLY AND WHAT IS NEXT

December 30, 2019: METALS & MINERS PREPARE FOR AN EARLY 2020 LIFTOFF

GDXJ 10 MINUTE CHART (1 MONTH DATA VIEW)

If we start with the shortest time frame analysis of the gold miners you can see a lot of measured moves based on technical analysis that has taken place in the last month of trading and it’s not far from over based on this chart.

DAILY GDXJ CHART

The setup in GDXJ is that Junior Gold Miners should move 15% to 25% higher over the next 30+ days on a price reversion event in the US stock market.  We believe the upside target for GDXJ is $46 to $51 from the current levels near $41.50.  After a brief pause near $50, GDXJ should attempt another rally to levels above $65 to $70 sometime near June~August 2020.

WEEKLY GDXJ CHART

This Weekly GDXJ chart highlights what we believe will happen over the next 6+ months.  The opportunity for skilled traders at this level is incredible.  Support near $35.50 has recently been retested and held.  Any entry below the $40 level is an incredible opportunity to catch this upside price move.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

We believe the US stock market will enter a period of volatility over the next 30~60+ days and that volatility will push metals and miners higher into this next wave of advancement.  Be prepared for Silver and Silver Miners to rally more than Gold/Gold Miners (potentially).  We’ve highlighted how Silver tends to rally a few months behind Gold when a Risk-On trade sets up.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997 I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles, I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

2020 is going to be full of incredible trading opportunities for skilled traders.  We’ve already set up a number of active trading triggers for our members to profit from the early moves in 2020.  This Gold Miners trade is an incredible opportunity for anyone skilled enough to take advantage of it. Visit Technical Traders Ltd. to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades in 2020.

Join my Wealth Building Newsletter if you like what you read here and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Q4 Earnings Setup The Rally To The Peak

Our research team believes the current Q4-2019 earnings season and expectations are prompting a “Rally To A Peak”.  We’ve been warning our followers and clients that we believe the US Stock Market has rallied to levels that constitute a “near peak enthusiasm” related to historical price volatility.

As you’ll see from these charts, below, we are not dismissing this current upside rally and the potential that it could last for many weeks or months longer – we’re just warning our followers and clients that we believe a very volatile period or price rotation is setting up within the next 10 to 25+ days as prices reach the historical upper boundary.

Our researchers believe that price channels are a very common form of technical analysis.  Price enters a channel when defined boundaries are established and when price continues to rotate within these boundaries.  Historically, when a price channel is broken or breached, a new price channel is quickly established.  You’ll see examples of this very clearly in the Custom US Stock Market Index and Custom Volatility charts below.

Within this research post, we want to highlight the rally levels across a number of our Custom Index charts because we believe the current US stock market rally is nearing a “peaking level/process” that may surprise many investors.  Even though the current price trend may be quite stable to the upside, price tends to rotate in up and down price cycles throughout shorter and longer-term trends.  We have termed this “true price exploration”.  It is the basis of the Elliot Wave theory and Fibonacci price theory.  The price must always attempt to establish new price highs or new price lows – at all times.

Put in more simple terms, the price will always rotate up and down within a trend – it will never go straight up or straight down.  There must be some rotation in price as support and resistance levels are established while true price exploration is taking place.  This process is the reason that we believe the global markets are setting up for a moderate price rotation/reversion in the near future.

This first chart, our Custom US Stock Market Index Weekly chart, highlights the recent upside price breakout that took place late in 2019.  We believe this rally is the result of a continued Capital Shift into the US stock market by foreign investors as well as continued fundamental economic data as a result of President Trump’s tax and deregulation policies.  The US/China trade deal, beginning to settle in November 2019, was also very good news for the markets overall.  As technical investors, these massive global concerns or positive events play a big role in understanding how the price will bias as it digests these positive or negative events.

The one aspect of this Custom US Stock Market Index chart we want to focus everyone onto is the Price Channel that we’ve drawn across the peaks and troughs of price over the past 2+ years.  The downside price rotation late in 2019 setup a defined price channel that we believe will act as critical price resistance in the very near future.  Should this price rally continue for another 2+ weeks, the price will very likely reach this resistance level – then what?

The current upside price rally technically confirms that price has already established a “new price high” and if this resistance level is a strong as we believe, based on the historical price channel structure, it may prompt a moderately large price correction/reversion event.  Once price rallies to near the upper price boundary, there is a very strong likelihood that price will experience hard resistance.  A potential rotation in price could prompt a move below 880 – the middle price channel level.

Our Custom Valuation Index Weekly chart highlights the amount of capital pouring into the markets and the fact that global investors continue to believe the upside price rally in the US stock market is likely to continue.  The past FLAG formation, from September 2019 till near November 2019, suggested that global investors were quite concerned about future valuation growth.  It would appear that global investors began to become very cautious in September 2019 – then started pouring capital back into the markets in late November/early December 2019.  It was likely foreign investors that began pouring capital into the US markets at that time.

Either way, the advance in the price of our Custom Valuation Index suggests that global investors believe the US stock market is, again, in rally mode into early 2020 and through Q4 2019 Earnings.

Now for the kicker. Our Custom Volatility Weekly chart is back into extreme overbought territory.  This indicator can stay in this range as price advances for many weeks – like what happened in late 2018.  Over the past 24+ months, every time the Volatility Index moved up into these extreme overbought levels, a moderate to severe price rotation/reversion took place.  This is important to understand for all traders.

Price could attempt to stay up in this overbought level for many weeks or months – yet the risk of a price correction/reversion would only gain strength the longer the Volatility Index stays above 19.  Be prepared for increased volatility over the next 60+ days and be prepared for a potential price reversion.  Our researchers believe we are very close to critical price resistance and an explosion in volatility.

As skilled technical traders, this is exactly what we want to see happen.  We want to be able to find and identify profitable price trends, prepare for price corrections and attempt to time our entries into various ETFs and sectors to be able to profit from these bigger swings.  As the rally continues to push higher, pay attention to the earnings data that is release and expect volatility to begin to move higher.  We believe a number of earning surprises are going to hit the markets.  These could prompt some 2% or greater price swings in the US markets.

This is the year you really want to find the right team to help you identify and trade these bigger trends.  Don’t let 2020 pass you by while these incredible setups continue to roll into bigger market trends.  Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades.

Join my Wealth Building Newsletter if you like what you read here and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.  Visit our web site (www.thetechnicaltraders.com) to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

Energy Continues Basing Setup – Breakout Expected Near January 24th

After watching Crude Oil fall from the $65 ppb level to the $58 ppb level (-10.7%) over the past few weeks, we still believe the energy sector is setting up for another great trade for skilled investors/traders.

We are all keenly aware that Winter is still here and that heating oil demands may continue to push certain energy prices higher.  Yet Winter is also a time when people don’t travel as much and, overall, energy prices tend to weaken throughout Winter.

Over the past 37 years, the historical monthly breakdown for Crude Oil is as follows:
December: Generally lower by -$0.33 to -$0.86.  Averages to the downside: -3.65 to +3.08
January: Generally lower by -$4.57 to -$6.72.  Averages to the downside: -2.68 to +2.27
February: Generally higher by +$8.41 to +13.73.  Averages to the upside +3.07 to -2.54
March: Generally higher by +7.33 to +$15.62.  Averages to the upside by +2.84 to -2.14

Over the past 25 years, the historical monthly breakdown for Natural Gas is as follows:
December: Generally lower by -$2.34 to -$5.26.  Averages to the downside: -0.81 to +0.69
January: Generally lower by -$5.14 to -$7.97.  Averages to the downside: -0.69 to +0.45
February: Generally lower by -$1.48 to -$3.62.  Averages to the downside -0.50 to +0.49
March: Generally higher by +0.63 to +$1.88.  Averages to the upside by +0.41 to -0.70

Over the past 35 years, the historical monthly breakdown for Heating Oil is as follows:
December: Generally lower by -$0.16 to -$0.37.  Averages to the downside: -0.14 to +0.09
January: Generally lower by -$0.52 to -$0.96.  Averages to the downside: -0.09 to +0.10
February: Generally higher by +$0.48 to +$1.06.  Averages to the upside +0.11 to -0.08
March: Generally higher by +0.03 to +$0.11.  Averages to the upside by +0.09 to -0.10

This data suggests an extended Winter in the US may prompt further contraction in certain segments of the energy sector that may prompt an exaggerated downside price move in Crude Oil and Natural Gas.  Heating Oil may rise a bit if the cold weather continues well past March/April 2019.

Conversely, if an early spring sets up in the US, then Crude Oil may begin to base a bit as people begin to traveling more, but Heating Oil and Natural Gas may decline as cold weather demands abate.

Heating Oil has almost mirrored Crude Oil in price action recently.  Our modeling systems are suggesting that Crude Oil may attempt to move below $40 ppb.  This move would be a result of a number of factors – mostly slowing global demand and a shift to electric vehicles.  We authored this research post early in January 2020 – please review it.

January 8, 2020: IS THE ENERGY SECTOR SETTING UP ANOTHER GREAT ENTRY?

We believe any price level below $40 in ERY is setting up for a very strong basing level going forward.  We have identified two “pullback zones”.  The first is what we call the “Deep Pullback Zone”.  The second is what we call the “Deeper Pullback Zone”.  Any upside price move from below $40 to recent upside target levels (above $50) would represent a 25%+ price rotation.

Historically, February is a very strong month for ERY.  The data going back over the past 12 years suggests February produces substantially higher upside price gains (+1899.30 to -394.28) – translating into a 4.8:1 upside price ratio over 12 years.  Both January and March reflect overall price weakness in ERY over the past 12 years.  Thus, the real opportunity is the setup of the “February price advance”.

We believe any opportunity to take advantage of this historical technical price pattern is advantageous for skilled traders/investors.

This is a pure technical pattern based on price bar data mining.  This is something you may not have ever considered unless you had the tools to search for historical price anomalies and rotation patterns.  We have created a suite of tools and price modeling systems we use to help our members find incredible opportunities – this being one of them.

Get ready, February will likely prompt a very nice rally in ERY if historical price triggers confirm future price activity.  The price pattern in February suggests a large upside price move is likely in ERY and we believe these low price basing patterns are an excellent opportunity for skilled traders.

Join my Wealth Building Newsletter if you like what you read here and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.  Visit our web site to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

Shifting Undercurrents In The US Stock Market

Even as we write this post, the US Stock Market continues to push higher as global traders and investors pour capital into the continued US rally.  The strong US Dollar continued to attract capital from around the globe and with fresh earning about to hit from Q4 2019, investors are expecting another round of solid income and earnings growth.

Yet, underlying all of this is the undercurrent of shifting capital into safe-havens like precious metals, Cryptos, and under-valued foreign markets.  This shift started to happen late in Q4 2019 and accelerated early in 2019.

HYG – HIGH YIELD CORPORATE BONDS DAILY CHART

One of our favorite measures of extreme bullishness is the scope of capital/trend pouring into High Yield Corporate Bonds.  This chart below highlights the scale of the rallies that take place before a price reversion event.  You’ll notice that each rally in HYG is nearly identical in size – and that each rally is followed by a fairly deep price reversion event.

The likelihood of some surprise earnings collapse from Q4 2019 is somewhat muted.  Other than the retail sector reporting some missed earnings expectations related to Christmas 2019, generally most market sectors should report earnings and growth near an average 2% to 3% growth expectation annually.

Still, with Rhodium, Platinum and Palladium rallying extensively and Gold and Silver recently setting up an upside breakout pattern (see our recent Gold and Silver research), we believe undercurrents are already at play in the markets where skilled traders are preparing for a price reversion event – attempting to mitigate risk.

Over the past 20 years, the DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL has been positive in January by a ratio of 1.2:1.  In other words, the odds of a positive January for the DOW is near 60%.  The average upside price advance in January for the DOW is a little over 600 points.  As of right now, the DOW has advanced a bit over 525 points since the end of 2019.  We believe the undercurrent trends may result in a moderate price reversion event if our analysis is correct.

We’ll wait to see what happens with earnings data and other news, yet our proprietary technical price modeling systems are suggesting a reversion/rotation event should happen fairly early in 2020.

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Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.  Visit our web site (www.thetechnicaltraders.com) to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

Crude Oil Reverses Lower Again After US Missile Attack

Normally, after tensions between Iran/Iraq and the US flare-up, Oil and Gold rally quite extensively but reversed sharply lower by the end of the session.

Yes, Gold is 1% higher today and was up over $35 overnight, but Crude Oil has actually moved lower today which is a fairly strong indication that disruptions in oil supply from the Middle East are not as concerning as they were 10+ years ago. Traders and investors don’t believe this isolated targeted missile attack will result in any extended aggression between the US and Iran.

When past conflicts in the Middle East happened, Oil would typically rally and Gold would spike higher as well.  Consider this a reflex action to uncertain oil supply issues and concerns that global market uncertainty could crash the markets.  Gold seems like an easy expectation related to this type of uncertainty as it continues to act as a hedge against many risks like missiles/war, financial uncertainties etc…

In my pre-market video report to subscribers today (Monday, Jan 6th) I pointed out how the price of crude oil was testing a critical resistance area form the last time there were missiles fired. Today’s reversal is not a huge surprise and in fact, it looks like an exhaustion top.

Oil, on the other hand, has experienced one of the longer price declines in recent history, from the peak price near $147 near July 2008 to levels currently near $63.  But we saw a low price for oil below $30 (near February 2016).

CRUDE OIL DAILY CHART

I believe a technical resistance channel may be pushing Oil prices lower today as the price has continued to rotate lower after moving into this extended Resistance Channel.  It may be that global traders don’t believe this conflict with Iran will result in any type of massive oil supply disruption or risk for the global markets right away.  The Resistance Channel, between $63 and $65.50, has continued to act as a price ceiling over the past 7+ months.

CRUDE OIL WEEKLY CHART

Our proprietary Fibonacci Price Modeling system is highlighting similar levels near $64 and $50.  This price modeling system maps and tracks price rotation using a proprietary adaptive Fibonacci price theory model.  These levels, highlighted on this chart, represent immediate price target levels for any upside move (CYAN, already reached) and any downside move (BLUE, suggesting a move back towards $50 may be in the works).

If Oil is not capable of breaking above this Resistance Channel, then Fibonacci Price Theory would suggest price must turn lower and attempt to establish a new LOW PRICE level that is below recent low price levels.

If this Resistance Channel continues to act as a solid price ceiling, Crude Oil may turn lower over the first few quarters of 2020 and attempt to target levels near or below $50 fairly soon.  Skilled traders should prepare for this type of move and identify opportunities for profits in the near future.

In fact, I also gave subscribers a head up that GDXJ and TLT were going to gap higher and likely be under pressure all session. Also, I showed how the SP500 was going to gap lower deep into oversold territory and likely rally strongly just like last Friday, all of these things happened perfectly today.

Pre-market GDXJ, SPY, TLT warning of price gaps into extreme territories beyond the small colored lines: Red (overbought level), and Green (oversold level)

PRE-MARKET CHART ANALYSIS

END OF DAY MARKET MOVEMENTS

My point is my team and I have a good pulse on the major markets and can profit during times when most others can’t which is why you should join my Wealth Trading Newsletter for index, metals, and energy trade alerts. Visit our website to learn how you can see what this research is telling us.

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Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com