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Natural Gas and Crude Oil – Diverging Setups For Technical Traders

Over the past few weeks and months, we’ve been alerting our followers to the incredible setups in Natural Gas and Crude Oil.  If you’ve been following our research, you already know on May 21st we called for Oil to break down from $62 level with a target of $55 then $49 price levels. We’ve been alerting that Natural Gas was setting up an incredible seasonal trade with a move that was likely to push lower into the $2.00 to $2.20 level – suggesting any move into this range would be a solid buying opportunity for the seasonal upside move.  Well, here we are about 35 days later and look at what happened.

Crude Oil Weekly Chart

The US/China trade issues and global economic turmoil is taking a toll on Crude Oil.  Price rotated downward very sharply last week with an incredible -8% downside move in one day.  Currently, price is resting just above the Moving Average and should soon breakdown below this level towards the $49 price level.  At that point, price should stall, briefly, before attempting to find support below $50. Our Fibonacci price modeling system suggests true support is found near $45 and $40.  Be prepared for a potential downside move of -20% to -25% from current levels.

Natural Gas Weekly Chart

Natural Gas has done exactly what we expected.  On this Weekly chart, you can see our shaded BLUE support range area and our GREEN and RED arrows from months ago highlighting what we expected to happen in price.  Yes, price is lower than we currently expected, but it has aligned with our expected price rotation almost perfectly. At this point, the sub $2.20 level is a perfect opportunity for skilled technical traders to prepare for the seasonal trend that will push Natural Gas back above the $2.65 to $3.15 level.  Allow us to go through our expectations with you so you understand how to plan for and trade this move. August is typically moderately bearish for NG.  So expect to try to pick your entry for this trade in August.  The ratio of bearish price activity in August is 1.2x the bullish price activity. September is STRONGLY BULLISH – with an upside ratio of 10x compared to historical downside price activity.  September is where we should see a big upside price move. October is still STRONGLY BULLISH – with an upside ratio of 3x compared to historical downside price activity. November is moderately bullish with a 1.3x upside ratio compared to downside price activity.

VIDEO – TODAYS MARKET ANALYSIS SPX, BONDS, GOLD, OIL, NAT GAS

If you want to get access to my trading indicators and market prediction tools checkout these charts here

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

This means two things.  First, Crude Oil should continue to breakdown and target the $49 price level over the next few days and weeks while Natural Gas sets up an incredible upside price setup below $2.25 for skilled technical traders.  Oil is moving lower because of lower demand related to the global economic slowdown and larger supply issues.  Natural Gas is setting up a seasonal pattern that could become a fantastic trading opportunity for traders that time their entries and understand the setup.  In late August or early September price should begin to rally well above $2.50 with an ultimate upside target of well above $3.00. In short, if you want to know what the market is going to nearly every day and get my trade alerts complete with entry, targets and stop prices join my Wealth Building Newsletter – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com Chris Vermeulen Technical Traders Ltd.

Where’s the Market bottom? Is This It?

Last Friday, August 2, 2019, we posted an article suggesting this current downside move in the US stock market may be setting up a “washout low” price rotation and we suggested all traders be very cautious over the weekend.  Obviously, with the US major indexes down -2 to -3% right now on extended selling after the Asian/Chinese stock market and currencies collapsed overnight, one has to ask the question “is this IT?  The big collapse everyone has been waiting for?” Our researchers believe this is the precursor to the move that everyone has been waiting for.  This move in the markets sets up a potential for a bigger collapse and we strongly believe this is a washout rotational low that is setting up – very similar to what happened in October 2018 when the US Fed initiated a downside price rotation in the markets.  Time will tell if we are correct or not, but we believe the August 19, 2019 peak/breakdown date that we’ve been predicting is still a valid target date and this current news sets up a price pattern that may result in an incredible future price rotation for skilled technical traders. At this time, if you have not been paying attention to our research and have not already scaled back your long trades in preparation for this type of volatility, you may get one more chance to reposition your portfolio before the move really breaks.  We believe the US markets are over-reacting to this US/China trade issue and the new tariffs with regards to this current downside price move.  We believe that once the news settles and reality returns, investors will suddenly realize the US economic outlook, as well as 4th quarter expectations, are much more opportunistic than current global trade issues. There are three critical aspects that we, as skilled technical traders, have to consider at this time. _  First, the 6 to 18-month pre-election price weakness cycle that should prompt a price decline sometime between now and May or June 2020.  Every major Presidential election cycle in the US has prompted this type of price weakness cycle as concerns regarding the future leadership in the US as well as a moderate economic stagnation in the US related to the election cycle create a pause/rotation in the US equity markets.  Is it starting early because of the US/China trade issues?  Take a minute to read this. _  Second, the global trade issues and Asia/China banking issues present a very interesting dynamic related to global expectations.  As we’re reported, Asia/China have attempted to take advantage of cheap US Dollar QE functions and extended this debt into all sorts of projects and banking instruments.  As the US Fed pushes interest rates higher while the Asian/Chinese economic outlook weakens, at some point the Asian/Chinese markets may enter a “death spiral” mode with a domino-effect type of collapse.  Once the Asian/Chinese economy turns from expansion/growth to contraction/fear, it is just a matter of time before panic sets in as consumers watch assets, markets, capital and opportunity contract into the abyss.  How much longer can China continue to keep their citizens immune from reality? Take a minute to read this. _  Third, the EU is starting to crumble under the weight of the lack of foreign investment and growth expectations.  Recent news suggests that Germany has entered a negative rate process with GDP and manufacturing shrinking considerably over the past 16+ months.  We believe this contraction in the EU is starting to take root and could be a much broader problem in the EU than anyone really wants to admit. Take a minute to read this.

ES Mini – SP500 Index Daily Chart

Using our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system, we’re going to attempt to highlight why we believe this move may be very close to being over (bottoming) and why traders need to pay attention to the rotation/reversion that may begin to unfold very shortly.  First, we’ll take a look at this ES Daily chart and we want all of our readers to pay attention to the deeper price low setup in June 2019.  Until the current price breaks below that low price level, near 2720, Fibonacci price theory teaches us that this downside rotation is nothing more than a bearish price rotation in a BULLISH trend.  Fibonacci price theory suggests that price will attempt to identify new price support (likely near the GREY and RED projected Fib price levels on the right side of the chart) and then attempt to rotate higher after support has been found. If our analysis is correct, then the price has already found support, near 2900, and is already exploring a “washout low” price level below this critical support level on the ES.  This would suggest that price may attempt a rebound upside price move (reversion) back to levels near 3000 fairly quickly once this downside pricing pressure (news) abates. Just like we saw back in May, we profited from the rally before the May sell-off, then we profited from the falling market using SDS just like we did again for the recent rally now this market crash/correction. Our Current SDS ETF is up over 8.5% in a couple of days during a time when everyone else is losing a lot of money.

Dow Jones Industrial Index Daily Chart

This INDU chart paints a similar picture where price has already broken lower, below the 26,000 GREY Fibonacci projected target level and is currently resting just 400 points above the ORANGE Moving Average support level.  If our analysis is correct and this is a washout low price rotation that will prompt a price reversion move, the upside potential in the INDU is +1000 to +1750 points higher.

NASDAQ Daily Chart

Lastly, this NASDAQ chart represents the most volatile of the three markets we are highlighting.  The NQ Fibonacci price modeling system suggests the downside price move has yet to reach the GREY or RED Fibonacci projected targets and that suggests the NQ could still see some price weakness over the next few days.  Overall, though, the ES and INDU are suggesting the bottom is likely already starting to form and we would not be surprised to see the NQ trading above 7800 before August 19, 2019 (+300 points).
The one thing we want to keep in mind is that the total global stock market matrix is not a single entity – it is a combination of various entities that make up a basket of trading instruments.  As the old saying goes, it is not a “stock market”, it is a “market of stocks”. Pay attention to how capital shifts play out as we get nearer to the US election date and what is happening throughout the world.  The German elections, BREXIT, Asian/Chinese market turmoil and commodity price deflation are all playing out to generate these huge swings in the global markets.  Our members have already seen incredible success from our calls and trades.  Isn’t it time for you to learn how TheTechnicalTraders.com can help you stay ahead of these incredible market moves? In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here. I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused on gold miners and the SP 500 index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here. On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis. More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

We believe this current downside price move is setting up to become an over-reaction price swing that will likely result in a very short-term buying opportunity for skilled technical traders. In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where stocks are headed for the next. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter. Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been set up for this move for many months. Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis! Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Palladium collapses After Our Double-Top From Early July 2019

It was almost like Palladium traders followed our research to the letter when the trend reversed on July 11, 2019.  Our research team issued a report indicating a Double-Top pattern was setting up in Palladium on July 3, 2019.  At that time, our proprietary cycle indicators and our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling systems suggested a large downside price swing was highly likely. January 24, 2018: HAVE YOU SEEN PALLADIUM’S TRADABLE PRICE PATTERN?
July 3, 2019: PALLADIUM SETS UP ANOTHER DOUBLE TOP PATTERN
Palladium is a very interesting metal that is used in various industry sectors as a component for automobile equipment/parts, medical equipment, and many other industrial sectors.  It is a great leading indicator to help gauge future expectations for various global industries and as a measure of consumer/industrial consumption and expectations.  When Palladium is rallying, it is a fairly solid sign that consumers are bullish on the global economy and are purchasing equipment, autos and other industrial elements to support future growth expectations.  When Palladium is falling, it is a fairly solid sign that consumers are reigning in their spending on new cars and other industrial items that are manufactured with Palladium. One of the biggest factors that are likely driving this move in Palladium is the renewed interest in Gold and Silver as the global market enters a very fragile period.  Palladium is a precious metal that is used in jewelry and other consumer products – like Gold and Silver.  Yet Palladium does not have the status in the precious metals world like Gold and Silver do.  When fear and greed enter the markets, Gold, Silver, and Platinum take center-stage.  Palladium, because of its more industrial use base, its not something that will rally like Gold and Silver will when a crisis hits. This Daily Palladium chart shows how the weakness in price started just after the price peak on July 11, 2019.  Over the past 3+ weeks, Palladium rotated downward towards the $1500 price level, then stalled.  Global traders were focused on earnings data, the US Fed announcement, and other data.

The recent breakdown is a result of three factors

_ US Fed rates decrease (expecting weaker global economic output) _ The rally in Gold and Silver (where global traders are starting to focus their attention) _ The fragility of global economic/trade functions that continue to plague the global markets These three factors will move the focus away from industrial use metals (Copper, Palladium, and Aluminum) and towards the more traditional Gold/Silver moves.
This Weekly Palladium chart highlights the Fibonacci price modeling system’s lower target levels.  Pay attention to the fact that $1315 and $1000 are key downside target levels in Palladium.  The Daily chart Fibonacci levels suggest that minor support may be found near $1400.  The Weekly Fibonacci chart suggests major support is really down near $1000.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

We believe once the $1475 level is breached to the downside, Palladium will quickly fall to levels near $1300 before briefly stalling and attempting to find support.  This move in Palladium aligns almost perfectly with our August 19 US market “Peak” prediction from months ago.  We believe the ultimate lower levels, near $1000, are a very strong possibility over the next 3+ months as we believe the global markets, and the US markets, are setting up for a fairly big price rotation after August 19, 2019. Don’t miss any of these big moves or our incredible research posts.  Find out how www.TheTechnicalTraders.com can help you find and execute better trades and prepare for these big price swings that are about to explode.

NEXT TRENDS FOR GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here. I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused on gold miners and the SP 500 index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here. On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis. More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts. In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where each commodity and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter. Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months. Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis! Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Small Caps Setup A Very Rare & Interesting Price Pattern

Our researchers have identified a very rare type of price pattern that is typically associated with explosive trend changes and trends.  We call this type of pattern a “Sandwich” pattern because of how price reacts within a range.  The IWM, Russell 2000 ETF, is illustrating a nearly perfect example of this pattern right now.

Daily IWM chart (Russell 2000 Small Cap Index)

This close up view of the Daily IWM chart highlights the Sandwich pattern over the most recent 5 trading days and how price enters this volatile period, rotates around within a range, then settles near the upper or lower end of the range before a price breakout occurs.  Notice the earlier Sandwich pattern setup and how price settled near the bottom of the range before a downside price leg pushed the price much lower. It is our belief that the IWM could be setting up for a significant reversal or breakout based on this Sandwich pattern os be ready for an extended move.

Longer-term View of the Daily IWM chart

Here is a longer-term Daily IWM chart that highlights previous Sandwich patterns for you to review. We go into more detail and a very interesting setup in the IWM and transportation index that took place in 2008, same set up we see now. See charts and report here.
One thing to understand about the Sandwich pattern is that it is an early warning sign that price has reached an inflection point and will likely attempt to break out or reverse down from the ranges set up within the Sandwich pattern. Also, you can see from the examples, above, that these patterns can take many bars to form and are sometimes somewhat convoluted in structure.  The most recent Sandwich pattern is unique because it is very defined over the past 5+ days.  We believe an upside price pop to the upside could turn into a “washout high” price setup. Compare this price activity to the SPY chart and you’ll see that the IWM, Small Caps, are operating as a leading price indicator for the potential breakout/breakdown move that may happen in the immediate future.  We see similar types of price rotation, but nothing as clear as we see on the IWM chart.
The fed news is shaking things up and our analysis stats this month could be the market top. We expect Aug 19th-ish… but this month is the window we feel it may happen. Stay tuned to our research – this is going to be fun to trade.

WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here. I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here. On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis. More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where each commodity and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter. Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months. Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis! Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Metals React To Fed Shockwaves – Ready For Next Move

On July 31, 2019, the US Federal Reserve decreased the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) by 25 basis points.  We believe the US Fed was pushed to take this action for three reasons that are directly related to the fear and greed that is abundant in the global markets.

Reason #1 Fed Had To Cut Rates

First, the US Fed is very concerned that the US housing market has stagnated and weakened over the past 16+ months.  The Fed has pushed the FFR towards our modeling system’s upper boundary (2.0 to 2.25) many months ago and this has pushed the housing market over a supply/demand precipice that may already be too far gone for a substantial recovery.  The US Fed, attempting to prevent another housing market collapse, must attempt to ease lending in an attempt to spark new real estate activity.

Reason #2 Fed Had To Cut Rates

Second, the US Fed must attempt to ease the foreign market US Dollar carry trade liabilities and attempt to allow more US Dollar opportunity in the foreign economy.  Over the past 2 to 3+ years, the supply of US Dollars within the foreign markets has diminished considerably while demand has increased.  Because of this, a US Dollar shortage currently exists in much of the global economy.  The US Fed is attempting to allow more US Dollar supply by lowering the FFR.

Reason #3 Fed Had To Cut Rates

Lastly, the US Fed, attempting to accommodate a more adaptable rates policy in order to more adequately facilitate the global economic turmoil that is persistent throughout the world.  Even though the US economy is still very strong and showing only mild signs of weakness currently, the US Fed felt the need to become more accommodating to allow more flexibility for global central banks to navigate through the current trade and geopolitical issues.

Dollar Hits Resistance And Should Reverse Down

Metals reacted by moving lower as the US Dollar rallied after the Fed announcement.  The US Dollar is currently near the upper price channel that we believe will prompt a weaker US Dollar over the next few weeks and will likely prompt a move lower over the next few weeks – allowing metals the ability to skyrocket higher over this same span of time.

Gold Set To Rock Higher

Gold is reacting to the US Dollar/Fed news by rotating within the black line and magenta arc levels that we highlighted weeks ago.  These Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs highlight key price levels that are acting as resistance for Gold right now.  Once price breaks these levels, Gold will skyrocket above $1550 and likely target $1650 or higher.

Silver Ready To Rally

As we’ve highlighted several times, Silver is likely the best trading opportunity set up on the planet right now.  We’ve highlighted where we are currently (“We Are Here”) and where we believe the price will move to in the future on this chart.  Using our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc levels and Fibonacci price ranges, we can “guess” where price may target in the future and where peaks and valleys may form.  We believe silver is setting up for a move to levels above $21~$22 right now and will begin this move higher within the next 2 to 5 weeks.
Even though the US Fed is attempt to act as a savior for the global central banks and attempting to easy US monetary policy while the global markets attempt to address their political and economic issues, we believe the US economy is uniquely strong in relation to other global economies and we believe the fear/greed factors will continue to increase over the next 15+ months or longer. Gold and Silver are setting up to become some of the best trades we’ve seen in a very long time for us, technical traders.  We believe Silver could rally well above $30 over a very short period of time.  Don’t worry about the rotation in the metals markets as a reaction to the US Fed.  The real news is that the US Dollar has reached the upper price channel limit which should prompt a bigger upside move in the US metals.

CRUCIAL WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here. I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here. On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis. More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where each commodity and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter. Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months. Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis! Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Energy Sets Up Two New Trades – Here They Are

Before we discuss these incredible trade setups in the Energy sector, we have to discuss the continued shifting global economy and how that relates to these setups.  Nearly three weeks ago, we posted a research article suggesting Crude Oil would call to levels near $50 over the next 30+ days, then stall for about 45 days before falling further and potentially attempting new lows near $40 ppb.  It is important to understand certain aspects of the global economy, economic demand and how it relates to seasonal patterns for Energy. We believe the move lower in Crude Oil is related to a supply glut that continues to plague the global markets while global economic trade, shipping, and activity continue to weaken.  Too much oil supply with weakening global economic activity means Crude Oil will likely waffle lower until this dynamic changes. Please read our recent research post to know where Crude Oil is likely to head next. Also this crude oil, prediction uses our oil price DNA algorithm to show us the future price range of oil. Other energy-related symbols, like Natural Gas and ERY, are set up for a different type of price move. The reality of the situation is that once Crude Oil reaches to levels near $50 ppb, it is very likely that a support level will push Crude back higher (as we suggest in our research) which will align with a seasonal pattern for Natural Gas and early Winter demand for heating oil.  September, October, and November are typically a ramp-up period for winter demand and end of year holiday travel.  People tend to take advantage of the last bit of Summer to seek out vacation spots, prepare for winter and push the cold back as long as possible. Future contracts may move higher, in preparation of this seasonal trend, many months before the season actually starts.  This is the reason we believe the energy sector is setting up some incredible opportunities for skilled technical traders.

The weekly chart of Natural Gas

This first Weekly chart of Natural Gas highlights a basing pattern that we’ve been following for months.  We believe any move below $2.30 is a strong bottoming/basing setup for skilled traders and our predictive modeling systems suggest we are just weeks (3 to 5+) away from a big upside move in NG. We believe natural gas will continue to fall and base. Once a bottom has been made the upside potential for NG over the next 60+ days is quite substantial.  We believe an in initial upside move after it bottoms will be to levels above $3.15 will take place before October 10 and that potential for an extreme breakout upside move above $4.00 is quite likely before the end of November 2019. Please read this article to learn more about our research into NG and the opportunities that are setting up now.  Also, this post we shared Natural Gas Moves Into Basing Zone.

ERY – Bear Energy Sector Chart

Keeping in mind that the setup within the energy sector is two-fold.  First, Oil and NG will continue to fall and base/bottom (moving slightly lower over the next few weeks).  This is why ERY is such a great setup right now.  Any breakdown in energy commodity prices over the next 3~5 weeks will push ERY 15% to 25% higher from current levels – which is exactly what we are expecting to happen. Then, as Crude Oil and Natural Gas base in their support zones, ERY will peak which is when we want to pull profits from ERY and watch other bullish energy ETFs for long side setups. From current levels, we believe ERY will target $50 to $52.50 fairly quickly as Crude Oil and NG continue to move lower and setup a momentum base within the basing zone/support range.  Remember Crude Oil should move to levels near $50 (a full 10% lower than current price levels) before basing.

Concluding Thoughts:

As we’ve been suggesting for months, 2019 and 2020 are setting up to be incredible years for skilled technical traders.  These moves in commodities, energy, and metals are providing us with trade after trade of 10%, 20% or more.  Almost every month, the markets are setting up 10 to 15+ incredible trading opportunities and all we have to do is time our entries and run these trades as we do any other trade. Not all trade setups are the kind we like and we only enter the ones that we think have the highest opportunity and lowest risk. Get ready because these incredible setups in Metals and Energy should keep you busy pulling the trigger to create profits over the next 5+ months or longer with my  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar Shipped To You Free. Follow our research and visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades. Chris Vermeulen Technical Traders Ltd.

US Fed Set To Rattle Global Markets – Part II

Today is the day for the US Fed to announce their rate decision and we believe the 25 basis point rate cut is the only option they have at the moment that will attempt to settle foreign market fears and allow for a suitable “unwinding” of the credit/debt “setup” we highlighted in Part I of this research post. We believe out August 19 expectation of a global market PEAK and the beginning of a price reversion move is related to multiple aspects of the timing of this Fed move and the current global economic outlook.  The unwinding of this debt/credit bubble will likely take many more years to unravel.  Yet, right now the US Fed is trapped in a scenario they never expected to find themselves in.  Either continue to run policy that supports the US economy (where rates would likely stay between 1.75 to 2.75) over the next 5+ years or yield to the global market and attempt to address a proper exit capability for this debt/credit “setup”. We believe global investors are expecting a massive collapse in the US stock market as a reaction to this move by the Fed and because of the expectation that another bubble has set up in the US.  But we believe the actual bubble is set up in the foreign markets and not so much in the US.  Yes, the US markets have extended to near all-time highs and the US consumer is running somewhat lean.  It would be natural for the US economy to revert to lower price levels and for the US economy to rotate as “price exploration” attempts to find true market support.  Yet, our fear is that the foreign markets are much more fragile than anyone understands at the moment and that a reversion in the US markets will prompt a potential collapse in certain foreign markets.

Weekly SPY chart

This Weekly SPY chart highlights what we expect to transpire over the next 6 to 8+ months.  We believe the August 19 peak date that we predicted months ago will likely start a process that will be tied to the US election cycle event (2020) and the US Fed in combination with global market events.  We believe a reversion price process is about to unfold that could be prompted into action over the next 2+ weeks by the US Fed, trade issues and global central banks.
If the US Fed drops the FFR by 25pb, the fragility of the foreign market debt/credit issues is not really abated or resolved.  It just allows for a bit of breathing room that may allow these foreign debtors enough room to wiggle out of some of their problems.  The US Fed would have to decrease rates by at least 75 basis point before any real relief will materialize for these foreign debtors.

Asian Currency Custom Index

This Asian Currency Custom Index used by our research team highlights the weakness in the foreign markets.  The recovery in 2018 is related to the Chinese/Asian currency market recovery that initiated in Feb/Mar 2018.  The recent weakness in this custom index is related to strengthening major market currencies (USD, CAD, JPY, CHF) in relation to weakening Asian currencies.  Notice how the price channels have set up to warn us that any further downside move will initiate a new “price exploration” phase that could see a -20% to -25% decrease in currency valuations – possibly much deeper.
We believe this is the real reason the US Fed is opting to decrease the FFR rate now and is not taking a more stern position related to US economic performance.  We believe the US Fed is, again, donning the “Superman cape” and attempting to Save The World from their own debt/credit mess. We are holding to our original predictions and expectations.  We believe the US stock market indexes will enter a reversion price phase over the next few weeks that will prompt a downside price reversion toward recent lows (2018 levels or deeper).  We believe this process will end in early 2020 and that the lows established by this move will represent incredible opportunities for skilled technical traders.

Weekly Dow Jones chart

This Weekly Dow Jones chart highlights our expectations.  We believe a mild price rotation will start this move over the next 2~4 weeks before the August 19, 2019 date prompts a breakdown move.  After that date, we believe an extended downside price leg will continue to reach a price bottom near the end of 2019 or in early 2020. This Weekly Dow Jones chart highlights our expectations.  We believe a mild price rotation will start this move over the next 2~4 weeks before the August 19, 2019 date prompts a breakdown move.  After that date, we believe an extended downside price leg will continue to reach a price bottom near the end of 2019 or in early 2020.
Skilled traders understand how the global markets are setting up for incredible opportunities and how to identify where and when these opportunities are ripe for profits and this is where we can help you!

CRUCIAL WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here. I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here. On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis. More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where each commodity and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter. Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months. Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis! Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

US Fed Set To Rattle Global Markets – Part I

With less than 24 hours to go before the US Fed rate decision announcement, all eyes are watching how the US stock market is reacting to the possibility of a rate cut (25 basis point) that has been telegraphed by the US fed many weeks in advance. Almost as if the US stock market is moving against all odds, the S&P and NASDAQ have pushed higher into new all-time high territory while the Dow Jones index currently trades just below recent highs.  What should traders expect with the Fed announcement and beyond?

Probability of Rate Cut Percent

First, we need to understand the global markets have already priced a 25 basis point rate decrease into the markets based on expectations.  The CME Fed expectations data suggests the market is 78.1% confident that a 25 basis point rate decrease will happen.
Source (CME) This suggests that global traders are already prepared for this move and we may not see much volatility if the US Fed does not surprise anyone with their language/future expectations. We believe the US Fed is taking this rate decrease to ease the supply of US Dollars throughout the world.  Over the past 18+ months, the strength of the US Dollar has prompted a shift away from weaker global economies and into the US equities market, US Treasuries and the US Dollar.  We believe this shift is reaching a critical moment in time where the fragility of the foreign markets has reached a tipping point.

Weekly US Dollar chart

You can see from this Weekly US Dollar chart that the rally from the bottom in early 2018 has been tremendous – +11.25% and climbing.  While this US Dollar rally has taken place, many foreign currencies have continued to weaken while the global economy has recently slowed to a crawl.  As long as the US Dollar stays within the magenta price channel moving forward, we expect this trend to continue.
The shift in how capital is being deployed and the stress that continues throughout the globe with regards to economic activity and output is related to something that we believe took place back in 2007 through 2016 – the global effort to support a very weak global economy. We highlighted some of our thoughts in this recent research post about the black hold in global banking. Overall, we believe the actions by the global central banks and the US Fed from 2007 till 2016 created a “setup” in the global markets that very few people foresaw or understood.  This shift happened at a pace and fever that few people could comprehend and came to a head in November 2016 when President Trump was elected.  We believe it happened somewhat like this… 2004~2006: Greenspan raises rates on an unprecedented scale (over 450%) pushing the US/global banking/credit sector into crisis in 2007-08 2008~2010: As the biggest global banking/credit crisis unfolds, the US Fed and global central banks do everything possible to save the world from decades of economic malaise and destruction.  US Fed lowers interest rates to near ZERO creating a run on US dollar debt/credit.

The Current Market Setup

2011~2015: As foreign market engages in debt/credit expansion, infrastructure projects and an “easy money” rally mode, something begins to change in 2014~2015.  China realizes the nation’s wealth is being exported to the US and other markets as well as a US stock market rotation that shocked the global investors. 2016~2017: The US Elections (2016) took the focus away from the global markets for a period of 15+ months and allowed the easy US Dollar trading activities to continue into hyperspace.  This is when many foreign nations/companies took huge risks leveraging debt and success into future debt/risks based on a belief that “this success will never end”.

Then This Happened…

January 2017: President Trump is sworn in and the US Fed begins raising rates aggressively.  The disruption that resulted from this 2017 combination event resulting in one of the largest “global unwinding” processes we’ve seen in quite a while and it has really only just begun. The downward rotation in the US Dollar in early 2017 as a result of uncertainty in US policy and perceived strength in foreign markets as US interest rates were still relatively low – under 1.4% most of that time.  After US FFR rates crossed above the 1.75% level, the easy US Dollar carry trade became much more difficult to maintain and foreign investors had already setup trillions in debts expecting the US Fed to maintain easy money policies for decades.
Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EFFR What is the US Fed expected to do at this time?  Either they lower the FFR so that the global markets can continue to run their credit/debt functions and attempt to deleverage the “setup” over the next 5+ years or the US Fed risks creating a run-away train type of scenario where foreign central banks lack the ammo to support their own economies and the US Fed risks creating hyper-inflation by not acting accordingly.  In short, the US Fed to the global bankers rescues again. Well, here we go with the US Fed setting the policy and expectations for the future as this incredible 1800% FFR rate increase has pushed the global markets into potential turmoil.  We’ll complete our research in the second half of this research post in a few hours stay tuned!

CRUCIAL WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, And S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here. I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here. On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis. More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where each commodity and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter. Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months. Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis! Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com