Just as we predicted, precious metals are setting up another extended momentum base/bottom that appears to be aligning with our prediction of an early October 2019 new upside price leg.
Recent news of the US Fed decreasing the Fed Funds Rate by 25bp as well as strength in the US stock market and US Dollar as eased fears and concerns across the global markets. These concerns and fears are still very real as the overnight credit market has continue to illustrate. Yet, the precious metals have retraced from recent highs and begun to form a momentum base which will likely become the floor for the next move higher.
The one aspect that many traders don’t grasp just yet is that the US market could continue to push higher, just as they’ve done over the past few months, while precious metals continue to push higher, just as they’ve done over the past few months. The reality is the fear and greed driving the upside price move in metals is related to foreign market concerns (China/Asia, Europe/EU/BREXIT, Arab/Iran/Israel, and others). The true fear is that some type of war or economic event will start while the global markets are fragile. The recent news that the overnight Repo Market is seizing is another indication that the global credit market is very fragile. What will it take to launch metals higher? We believe the world is waiting for this next event to happen while this momentum base continues to set up.
GOLD DAILY CHART
This Gold Daily chart highlights the momentum base setup between $1480 and $1525. Any entry below $1500 is a relatively solid entry point for skilled technical traders. The next upside target based on our Fibonacci price modeling tool is $1795. Thus, the real upside move potential at this point is another +20% for Gold.
SILVER DAILY CHART
Silver is setting up a similar momentum base pattern after reaching levels just below $20 per ounce. We still believe the early October breakout date is relevant and we believe the next upside target will be between $21 to $24 in Silver. Any entry level below $17.60 is a solid area for skilled technical traders preparing for the next upside price leg.
There has been a lot of talk from analysts and researchers that Gold could rally well past $5,000 if the markets collapse. One analysis came out recently and suggest Gold could rally above $23,000. We are a bit more conservative with our initial upside target of $3,750.
The bottom line is you really don’t want to miss this opportunity in the precious metals markets once it forms a bottom and starts to rally. This recent price rotation is a gift for skilled technical traders. If you were to take a minute and really consider how precious metals would react to a foreign market credit collapse on top of the potential for a collapsing economic outlook resulting from the credit collapse, you’ll quickly understand that trillions of dollars will be seeking safety and security in the metals markets in due time.
My Wealth Building ETF Newsletter will hold your hand, and tell you what trades to take as these events unfold including the entry price, price targets, and most importantly stop prices. If you like what I offer ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar!
Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/30-2.png456850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-09-20 15:06:342019-09-20 15:06:34Precious Metals Setting Up Another Momentum Bottom
We’ve been watching the markets today and over the past few days after the Saudi Arabia attack and are surprised with the real lack of volatility in the US major markets – excluding the incredible move higher, then lower in Oil. The real news appears to be something completely different than Oil right now. Might it be the Fed Meeting?
You might remember our August 19th prediction, based on Super-Cycle research and patterns, that a breakdown in the global markets was about to take place? This failed to validate because of external factors (positive news related to the US China Trade talk and other factors). This didn’t completely invalidate the super-cycle pattern – it may have just delayed it a bit.
That super-cycle pattern initiated in 2013-2015 and concludes in 2019/2020. This is one of the reasons why we believed the August 19 date was so important. It aligned with our price cycle analysis and our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs. We believed this was the date that we would learn the future of the markets and possibly start a bigger price breakdown.
It now appears that the foreign and US credit markets are starting to “freak out” and we may find out that the US Federal Reserve is rushing in to rescue the global markets (again) from their own creation. The Repo Markets appear to be setting up a massive crisis event as rates skyrocket overnight. See the article below from ZeroHedge.
Source : Zerohedge.com : “Nobody Knows What’s Going On”: Repo Market Freezes As Overnight Rate Hits All Time High Of 10%
Many analysts have discussed the US Dollar shortage in foreign markets that relates to global credit functions, sustainable trade functions and much more. If the US Dollar shortage is reaching a critical point where foreign markets are unable to function properly and where Repo Rates are reflecting this crisis, we may be on the verge of a much bigger credit crisis event that we have imagined.
In our opinion, the scope and scale of this event depends on the September 17/18 US Fed meeting outcome and the tone of their message afterward. If the Fed softens and injects capital into the global markets, we may see a bit of a reprieve – even though we may still see concerns weighing on the global markets. If the Fed allows the card to fall where the may, so to say, we may see a bigger crisis event unfolding over the next 2 to 4 weeks – possibly much longer.
We believe this event is related to the Capital Shift that we have been discussing with you for more than 2+ years. Capital always seeks out the safest and most secure returns in times of crisis. Capital will also seek out opportunity at times – only when opportunity is relatively safe compared to risk. This may be a time when opportunity is limited and the potential for risks/crisis are very elevated. At those times, capital rushes away from risk and into safety in Cash, Metals and the safest instruments in the global markets – we believe that would likely be the US, Canadian, Japanese, British and Swiss markets/banking systems.
DOW (YM) DAILY CHART
This YM Daily chart highlights recent price ranges and shows us what a 1.5x and 2.5x volatility explosion could look like (see the Yellow and Blue highlighted ranges on the right end of the chart). We believe the event that is setting up, with the US Fed meeting/announcements pending, could prompt a large volatility event over the next few days/weeks/months that may target these expanded volatility ranges.
MIDCAP INDEX DAILY CHART
This MC, MidCap, Daily chart highlights the same range expansions (1.5x and 2.5x) related to the recent price ranges in the MidCap Index. Traders must take a moment to understand how an extremely volatile pricing event within these ranges could create dramatic profit or loss risks. Imagine what would happen is the MC was suddenly targeting 1775 or 1620 on some type of crisis event – a 20% to 30% price decline.
DAILY TRANSPORTATION INDEX CHART
This Daily TRAN, Transportation Index, chart provides a similar picture of the type of volatility event that we believe could be setting up currently. From current levels, the Transportation Index could rotate within a +/- 15~25% price range if a new credit crisis event were to roil the markets.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
What can you do about it and how can you protect your investments from this event? Learn to protect your assets by taking advantage of current high prices, pulling some profits, protect long trades, scale back your active trading and learn to size your trades appropriately. If you have not already done so, strongly consider a position in precious metals (Gold or Silver) and move a larger portion of your portfolio into CASH.
The risks of another global credit crisis event appear to be starting to show very clear signs right now. This event will likely be focused on foreign markets – not necessarily focused on the US markets. We’ve been warning our followers about this type of event for many months now and we are alerting you to the fact that the Repo Markets appear to be screaming a very clear warning that foreign credit many be entering a crisis mode.
I urge you visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar!
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/20.png456850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-09-18 16:53:122019-09-18 16:53:12IS THE OTHER SHOE ABOUT TO DROP WITH FED NEWS?
The news of the drone attack on Saudi Arabia over the weekend prompted a big upside move in Oil (over 10%) and a moderate downside rotation in the US major indexes/stock market. Although prices had recovered slightly by the opening bell on Monday, September 16, the shock wave resulting from this disruption in oil supply is just now starting to play out.
The long term uncertainty in the markets, as well as the rotation in the US Dollar and other foreign currencies, could play a bigger role in the type of volatility and extent of the immediate price rotation that may result from this external news event. Our VIX predictions and ADL predictive modeling system are suggesting volatility will become front and center over the next 60+ day before settling into a more narrow price range.
As we see it, this disruption in oil is an external factor related to the markets. Yes, it will disrupt about 5% of the global oil supply. Yes, some type of retaliation could take place over the next 30 to 60 days. Yes, the global markets will continue to rotate until they have priced in the additional risk related to this current event and potential future events. That means investors must understand the value and opportunity of proper position sizing and risk management. The next few weeks may be full of surprises.
VIX INDEX FIBONACCI UPSIDE TARGETS CHART
Our VIX chart highlights what we expect in terms of the potential upside price volatility in the US stock market. You can see we expected the VIX price to decline after the peak in early August 2019, then bottom near August 20~21 and attempt a move higher (related to our August 19 breakdown expectations). This breakdown never happened as news events pushed the general markets higher – abating the spike in the VIX we were expecting. Our further expectations were that VIX would cycle lower near the end of August 2019 and into very early September 2019 before setting up a bottom near 24 and extending higher. Obviously, our expected levels were off by quite a bit, but the rotation in the VIX continues to align with our rotational cycles.
Therefore, we believe the potential for an upside price move in the VIX is still very valid, especially given the events of last weekend and the continued trade talks, market fragility and potential for major news events. We believe the VIX may be starting an upward price cycle that could push it well past 21~24 should the US stock markets rotate lower or contract.
SP500 INDEX WEEKLY ADAPTIVE DYNAMIC LEARNING (ADL) CHART
Our ES Weekly Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) chart highlights why we believe an extended volatility range exists over the next 60+ days and why we believe a rotation of 8 to 12% is a real possibility in the US stock market/major indexes. Our ADL predictive modeling system is very useful because it highlights where price may attempt to target out into the future based on a proprietary price mapping/data mining solution. The purpose of this tool is to map historical price activity by unique price pattern, technical data and categories, learn from the past and attempt to use this data to predict the future. We’ve found it to be extremely valuable in our research.
This ES Weekly ADL chart suggests an 8 to 12% price range is set up in the US stock markets over the next 60+ days. This suggests that and price weakness or external news event could send the US stock market much lower before finding any real support. Any absence of this breakdown event or crisis-type news event would suggest that prices will attempt to drift moderately higher over the next 60+ days.
In other words, there is a very real potential for a potentially big downside price rotation currently set up in the markets. That potential vanishes in early November 2019 as the ADL predictive modeling system suggests a more narrow target range for the price with an upside price bias driving markets to potentially new all-time highs.
CONCLUDING THOUGHT:
Get ready for some really great trading opportunities over the next 4+ months. Any downside price rotation will present a very clear buying opportunity for skilled technical traders and members of our ETF Wealth Building Newsletteras we lead into the November/December market rally (Christmas Rally). This means we must continue to be cautious of extended volatility and play these price rotations with a strong focus on managing risk before the November/December rally sets up to close out 2019.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
So, if you believe in technical analysis, then this is the newsletter and market condition for you to really shine.
Be prepared for these price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.
Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/11.png516850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-09-17 13:15:422019-09-17 13:15:42VIX To Begin A New Uptrend and What it Means
It is absolutely amazing how the precious metals markets have followed our October 2018 predictions almost like clockwork. Our call for an April 21~24 momentum base below $1300 followed by an extensive rally to levels above $1550 has been playing out almost like we scripted these future price moves.
Now that the $1550 level has been reached, we are expecting a rotation to levels that may reach just below the $1490~1500 level before attempting to set up another momentum base/bottom formation. And just like clockwork, Gold has followed our predictions and price is falling as we expected. Just look at our October 2018 chart where we forecasted the price of gold rallies and corrections along the way.
Unfortunately, so many traders are highly emotional and fall in love with positions in shiny metals or gold miner stock positions. Yet we all know if you trade on emotions or fall in love with a position, you are most likely to lose a ton of money. Two weeks ago I got so much flack from traders when I said gold miners were on the verge of a violent drop in price, then the bottom fell out and the dropped huge. Then last Thursday morning when gold, silver, and miners are trading up huge in pre-market and at the opening bell I warned it looked like a big fakeout and price could collapse for yet a second leg down and the same response from those emotional traders who love their positions and won’t sell them when they should as active traders.
The downside rotation currently in Gold is likely not quite over yet and the gold mines will selloff the most. This new momentum base should setup and complete above $1455~1465 as a true Fibonacci price rotation completes. The next upside price leg should push Gold well above the $1760~1780 level – so get ready for another big rally of 20%+.
CAN YOU OUTPERFORM THE GDXJ?
If you like to trade in the precious metals sector then you most likely love to trade the gold miners ETF GDXJ. As you can see above GDXJ is only up 19.55% year to date. Sure, it’s a nice gain, but are you still holding your metals position knowing you just gave back most or all of your profits?
Being a technical analyst my focus is to only enter a position when the charts/analysis point to an immediate price advance or decline. I site in cash waiting for the next cycle top or bottom to form in an asset class like gold miners, gold, silver, or silver miners, and once the cycle starts I jump on the wave and ride it for the move until it shows signs that its weakening and will break. almost 50% of the year my portfolio is sitting in cash. And my average position only lasts around 12 days.
Take a look at all my precious metals related trades this year (2019) below. They are all winners, and total gain for subscribers of my Wealth Building Newsletter is 41.74% profit. More than double the return than if you were riding the GDXJ roller coaster for 9 months straight and all your money at risk.
My point here is that no matter how much you love metals (and I LOVE METALS), but you do not need to always be in a position in them. There are times to own, and times to watch with your money safely in cash.
GOLD EXPECTATIONS – DAILY CHART
The one aspect of all of this that all skilled technical traders need to keep in mind is that this initial upside price move in precious metals is very indicative of extended fear and greed in the global markets. We all need to understand how every upside move of $10 in Gold related to a new, high, extreme fear level related to the global markets. The bottom in Gold, near November 2016, was in relation to fear that the global markets would become, potentially, rattled by the new US president. The continued upside move in Gold is less of that extended fear as we are entering the new US 2020 presidential election cycle. At this point, it is related to the fear that the global markets have extended beyond means to sustain future growth expectations and that central banks may be losing control (and the ability to manipulate) the global financial markets.
The end result is that the fear and greed that is starting to show up in the precious metals markets may become an “unruly beast” if it continues to grow in strength and velocity.
SILVER EXPECTATIONS – DAILY CHART
Our expectations with Silver was that it would stall just below $17, rotate downward briefly and then begin another upside move – somewhat inline with Gold. What really happened is that Silver prices extended to levels just below $20 before weakening. This is partially due to the fact that metals suddenly became more “in focus” for global investors and also partially due to the fact that Silver suddenly became a “hot topic” because of the Gold/Silver ratio that continued to stay above 86~89. Once traders realized the incredible value that Silver really presented – it seemed everyone started piling into the silver trade and we believe this increased volume drove prices towards the $20 level.
Still, Silver has recently rotated lower again, moving to levels below $18 and following Gold into a momentum basing pattern. We do believe Silver and Gold may have a bit further to go to the downside before really finding support. Our researchers believe Silver may target the $17 price level before completing the momentum base. If this is the case, skilled traders should look for opportunities below $17.40 and get set up for the next upside price leg.
Keep reading our research because our proprietary tools have been nailing all of these price targets and moves many months in advance. The next bottom in metals should set up within the next 10~15+ days – then the next upside leg will begin. This time Gold should target $1800 and Silver should target $21 to $24. This will be an incredible move higher if it plays out as we suspect.
I urge you visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar!
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/0-1.png562894adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-09-17 12:05:552019-09-17 12:05:55METALS ARE FOLLOWING DOWNSIDE SELL OFF PREDICTION BEFORE THE NEXT RALLY
After the news of the drone attack on the Saudi Arabia oil refinery, traders knew this week would be full of bigger price moves, reversals and some real opportunity for profits. We were also well aware of the risks of engaging in these market moves prior to fully understanding the dynamics of this event. We heard from many of our friends in the industry about open positions that were not properly scaled to deal with risk – and we know some of our friends took a hit early today.
The real questions before skilled technical traders are:
What will happen with Oil and where will price find the first level of resistance?
What will happen to the US and foreign major markets related to this supply disruption?
How will future economic expectations react to this disruption?
We can answer the first question fairly easily – where is the first level of resistance? The shorter-term resistance resides at $64.41 ($64.50 to $66). The longer-term resistance resides at $71.35 ($71.50 to $72.50). This means the price of oil should run into some moderate resistance near $65. If it breaks past that level, then the next level of resistance is near $72.
The second question is a bit more complicated to answer. We believe the US markets will continue to benefit from the capital shift that has continued to take place over the past 4+ years and from deep US oil supply capabilities and reserve capabilities. Foreign markets, particularly those that are dependent on oil imports, may experience a new impulse of economic weakness as oil costs rise. Exporting countries will see new revenues to support ailing policies. The answer is, the more mature economies will survive without much trouble – weaker, less mature, economies could experience some real pain from this move in Oil.
The third question is open to interpretation as foreign currencies continue to shift. Initially, any country that is dependent on oil imports will experience some real future expectation economic pain. Countries that are in a more stable position regarding Oil demands could still experience some pain as currencies shift valuations. Overall, the length of this disruption and the possibility of any further supply disruption is really where these future expectations come unglued. The opportunity for further disruptions or future changes in market dynamics is very real. This is a very “fluid” process at the moment.
Profiting from these moves is really quite simple – patience, wait for the right setups, confine risks and make sure you already have your hard cash reserves and protection positions in precious metals. These swings in the markets are going to get better and bigger as this continues to play out. Skilled technical traders will have no shortage of great trade opportunities throughout the next 15+ months.
DAILY CRUDE OIL PRICE CHART
This Daily Oil chart highlights our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system and the key upside price target (resistance) near $64.50. Ultimately, this is the upper resistance level that is the first level of major resistance for this upside price move in Oil. Rotation within these three Fibonacci target ranges has already started to happen. This suggests price volatility is massive in oil and should continue in the near future.
DAILY XOI OIL STOCK INDEX CHART
This Daily XOI chart highlights the Daily Fibonacci price targets and clearly shows how quickly price has rallied after the weekend. The XOI price is already above the three Fibonacci price targets, thus we must revert to previous price PEAKS as new resistance levels. Currently, the 1300 level is a key resistance level which would closely align with our $64.50 level in Crude.
WEEKLY XOI OIL STOCK INDEX CHART
This XOI Weekly chart provides a longer-term picture of the upside targets in XOI. The upper targets near 1425 and 1475 would translate into a $69 to $71 price target in Crude Oil. Therefore, any breakout above $66~67 could easily rally up to $69 to $71 before reaching any key resistance levels.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
If the XOI is unable to clear the $1302 level, then this upside move in Crude Oil may actually be over as fast as it started. Failure to climb above $1302 in XOI would result in a complete “new price high” failure and would suggest a top is forming.
We love it when the markets move like this. Quite honestly, these are the best conditions for skilled technical traders to find extremely profitable trade setups. The most difficult part of trading in this type of market is protecting against risk and position sizing. If you are ready to learn where new trade setups are forming like in gold miners, and metals and want to execute trades effectively within this volatile rotation then check out my ETF trading newsletter.
I urge you visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar!
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/90-1.png456850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-09-17 11:23:052019-09-17 11:23:05WHAT ARE THE REAL UPSIDE TARGETS FOR OIL POST DRONE ATTACK?
This week ended with the S&P, Dow Industrials and Nasdaq stalling near recent highs. From a technical perspective, both Thursday and Friday setup small range price bars (Doji candles or small Spinning Top type bars) after the upside price move on Wednesday. These are indicative of price consolidation and indecision.
The news events that initiated this rally, nearly a week ago, continue to drive sentiment in the markets. Yet the news from the ECB that new stimulus efforts would begin with $20 Billion Euros monthly invested in assets until they decide it is not required any longer suggests the EU is desperate to support extended growth and some renewed inflation. This move by the EU pushed banks and the finance sector higher while the US stock market stalled near the end of the week.
At these lofty levels, almost all of our indicators and predictive modeling systems are suggesting the US stock markets are well within an overbought mode. Of course, the markets can continue in this mode for extended periods of time as central banks and external efforts to support the asset/stock market continues, at some point investors/traders will recognize the imbalance in price/demand/supply as a fear of a price contraction.
We are very cautious that the market is setting up a lofty peak at this time. It is important for traders and investors to understand the global situations that are setting up in the markets. With precious metals moving higher, it is important to understand that FEAR and GREED are very active in the markets right now. The continued capital shift that has been taking place where foreign investors are shifting assets into US and more mature economies trying to avoid risks and currency risks is still very active. Yet the lofty prices in certain segments of the US stock markets means that this capital shift may take place where investment capital is shifted away from more risky US assets (high multiple speculative stocks) and into something that may appear to be undervalued and capable of growth.
The shifting focus of the global markets, the EU and the continued need for stimulus at this time is somewhat concerning. Our view is to watch how the global markets play out and to maintain a cautious investment strategy. We shifted into an extremely cautious mode back in February/March as the US market completed the October/December 2018 breakdown and precious metals started a move higher. We continue to operate within this extremely cautious investment mode because we believe the foundation of the global markets are currently shifting and we don’t believe the stability of the markets is the same as it was after the February 2017 market collapse.
What do we believe is the result of this shift in our thinking? This is very simple. We are entering into the final 13+ months of the US presidential election cycle, the trade wars between the US and China continue to drag on with is muting economic activity, the EU continues to battle to find some growth/inflation while Great Britain attempts to work out a BREXIT deal as soon as possible. Meanwhile, we continue to try to find opportunities in the markets with these extreme issues still pending. We don’t believe any real clarity will happen until we near October/November 2020. Be sure to opt-in to our Free Trade Ideas Newsletter to get more updates.
This ES Weekly chart highlights the range-bound price rotation that currently dominates the US stock market. Overall, the US stock market and the economy are much stronger than any other economy on the planet. The risk factor is related to the fact that the capital shift which has been pushing asset prices higher as more and more capital flows in the US stock market may have reached a point of correction (headed into the US presidential election cycle). As long as price stays within this range, we believe continued extreme volatility will continue. Our Fibonacci system suggests price must close above 3178 to qualify as a new bullish trend and/or close below 2577 to confirm a new bearish trend.
This Transportation Index weekly chart shows a similar setup. Although the Fibonacci price trigger levels are vastly different. Price would have to climb above 11,475 to qualify for as a new bullish trend whereas it would only have to fall below 10,371 to qualify as a new bearish trend. Given the past rotation levels, it is much more probable that price may rotate into a bearish trend before attempting to reach anywhere near the bullish price trigger level.
Our Custom volatility index suggests price has rallied last week well into the upper “weakness zone”. This move suggests the upside price move may already be well into the overbought levels (again) and may begin to stall. Traders need to be cautious near these level. We continue to suggest that skilled technical traders should look to pull some profits from these lofty levels to protect cash/profits. Any extreme volatility and/or a bigger price rotation could be disastrous for unprepared traders.
We are excited to see what happens early next week. News will be a big factor – as it always is in this world. Pay attention to how the markets open early this week and keep your eyes open for any crisis events (wars, bombings or other geopolitical news). And get ready for some really big volatility to hit the global markets.
This is the time for skilled technical traders to really shine as these bigger moves roll on.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
So, if you believe in technical analysis, then this is the newsletter and market condition for you to really shine, especially with my trading indicators coming online.
Be prepared for these price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.
Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/80.png470850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-09-16 13:37:302019-09-16 13:37:30US Indexes Continue To Rally Within A Defined Range
Crude Oil has been trading in a fairly narrow range since mid-August – between $52 and $57 ppb. Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system suggested the downside price move in late July/early August was expected and the current support aligns very well with our ADL predictions of higher price rotation throughout most of September/October. Please take a minute to review the original research post below :
We believe the current price highs, near $59 to $60, will likely continue as strong price resistance over the next 25+ trading days before a bigger breakdown begins near Mid-October. We expect the price to continue rotating within a fairly narrow range in alignment with our ADL predictions. Our original article suggested a high price target area near $60 from our ADL research. Now that Crude Oil has nearly reached this level, we believe the continued upside opportunity in Crude Oil is limited. Be sure to opt-in to our Free Trade Ideas Newsletter to get more updates.
DAILY CRUDE OIL CHART
This Daily Crude Oil Chart highlights what we believe will become resistance just below the $60 price level and suggests the $55 to $56 price level may be intermediate support. Thus, we expect the price to rotate a bit lower, possibly into the $54 to $56 level, then stall and rotate further as we transition into the end of September.
WEEKLY CRUDE OIL CHART TREND DIRECTION
We don’t expect anything crazy to happen in Oil until later in September or into early October. Our ADL predictive modeling suggests that Crude Oil will peak in October and begin a broader downside move towards levels just below $50. Crude Oil may begin this move a bit earlier than our ADL system predicts because of news or some fundamental data related to oil demand/supply. It is not uncommon for the price to move towards the ADL predicted levels many weeks before or after our Monthly ADL predictions. When we create the Monthly ADL charts, the data represented is based on highly probable levels for the completed month. So, we know that near the month of October or November, Oil should be targeting the sub-$50 level.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
Ultimately, near the end of 2019 or into early 2020, Oil should be targeting the sub-$30 price level on a larger downside price move. Sub-$30 Oil would likely mean that global supply/demand issues, as well as global economic concerns, would be top-tier issues. We believe the future price moves in Crude Oil will present very clear opportunities for skilled technical traders. Right now, we have to be patient as the price continues to rotate above $55 and below $60 before the real price moves begin to take place.
I have had a series of great trades this month. In fact, over the past 20 months, my ETF trading newsletter portfolio has generated over 100% return when compounded for members. And we locking in 5.1% profits on Tuesday with the Russell 2000 index, and also XLU for a quick 1.43% profit as well. So, if you believe in technical analysis, then this is the newsletter and market condition for you to really shine, especially with my trading indicators coming online.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
Be prepared for these price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.
Join me with a subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/70-1.png516850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-09-13 11:57:012019-09-13 11:57:01Crude Oil Setting Up For A Downside Price Rotation
The Energy Sector ETF has been on fire recently with big price trends. We called a bottom/buy trigger in ERY in early July that resulted in a nearly +20% rally. Then, on August 29th, we called for ERY to rotate lower, targeting the $46 to $47 level – setting up another price momentum base before another attempt to move higher. You can read that research post here :
With Crude Oil pushing higher over the past few weeks and targeting levels just below the $59 price area, we believe the timing of this move in ERY is almost perfect. ERY rotated lower reaching the $44 price level on September 10. We believe this low price level will likely become the price bottom (or near a price bottom) for ERY and that a new upside price trend will set up over the next few days/weeks as a momentum base. It is very likely that an initial upside price move targeting $57 or $57 will conclude the first upside price leg (+20%). After that, the further upside target is another 18.5% higher near $65.25.
If you’ve been following our Crude Oil and Energy Sector research, you’ll already know the ERY trade setups have been very good in terms of price rotation, risk, and opportunity. We believe the momentum base setup will likely take 4 to 6+ days to complete – giving skilled traders a great opportunity to identify entry locations. Be sure to opt-in to our Free Trade Ideas Newsletter.
Ultimately, the next upside price move should settle just below $57 on the initial move higher, then rotate downward a bit, then move higher towards the $65 price level. Traders should consider any deeper price rotation below $46 as a solid entry price level for this next move. Crude Oil is already nearing price resistance and the energy sector may be poised for another big move higher.
A note of caution in regards to the ERY 3x ETF. Because this is a 3X ETF, skilled technical traders should be cautious in regards to risk factors. 3X ETFs can be fantastic for profits, but horrible for losses. If you are not prepared for volatility or don’t time your entry well, price rotation could result in some intermediate losses that may be tough to stomach. 3X ETFs are something that most novice traders should stay away from unless they fully understand the risks of these investments and how to properly size their trade positions.
Still, we believe the energy sector is setting up another great trade opportunity for skilled technical traders. Watch how this sets up below $46 and watch for deeper price moves below $45. Once the momentum base is set up, the upside price move should be very clean and fairly quick.
I have had a series of great trades this month. In fact, over the past 20 months, my ETF trading newsletter portfolio has generated over 100% return when compounded for members. And we locking in 5.1% profits on Tuesday with the Russell 2000 index, and also XLU for a quick 1.43% profit as well. So, if you believe in technical analysis, then this is the newsletter and market condition for you to really shine.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
Be prepared for these price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.
Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/60.png470850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-09-12 14:35:132019-09-12 14:35:13Energy Sector Reaches Key Low Point – Start Looking For The Next Move
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
I have had a series of great trades this month. In fact, over the past 20 months, my trading newsletter portfolio has generated over 100% return when compounded for members and most importantly we did this with very little portfolio risk. And we locking in more profits on Tuesday with the Russell 2000 index. So, if you believe in technical analysis, then this is the newsletter and market condition for you to really shine.
Be prepared for these price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.
Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
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This research post continues our effort to keep investors aware of the risks and shifting capital opportunities that are currently taking place in the global markets. We started in PART I of this article by attempting to highlight how shifting currency valuations have played a very big role in precious metals pricing and how these currency shifts may ultimately result in various risk factors going forward with regards to market volatility.
Simply put, currency pricing pressures are likely to isolate many foreign markets from investment activities as consumers, institutions and central governments may need more capital to support localized economies and policies while precious metals continue to get more and more expensive.
One of the primary reasons for this shift in the markets is the strength of the US Dollar and the US Stock Market (as well as the strength in other mature economies). The capital shift that began to take place in 2013-2014 was a shift away from risk and towards safer, more mature economic sources. This shift continues today – in an even more heightened environment. The volatility we are seeing in the US and foreign markets is related to this shift taking place as well as the currency valuation changes that continue to rattle the global markets.
US Dollar Index Weekly Chart
It is our opinion that, at some point, the support levels in foreign markets may collapse while the US and major mature global economies become safe-havens for assets. When this happens, we’ll see the US Dollar rally even further which will push many foreign currencies into further despair. The overall strength of the US Dollar is being supported by this continued capital shift and the way that global assets are seeking safety and security. The same thing is happening in precious metals.
We believe the current setup in the US markets is indicative of a breakout/breakdown FLAG/Pennant formation. We believe this current setup should prompt a very volatile price swing in the markets over the next 3 to 6+ months which may become the start of a broader event playing out in the foreign markets. How this relates to precious metals is simply – more fear, more greed, more uncertainty equals a very strong rally in precious metals over the next 12+ months.
Dow Jones Index Chart
This Dow Jones chart highlights what we believe is a very strong Resistance Channel that needs to be broken if the US stock market is going to attempt to push higher in the future. You can also see the BLUE lines we’ve drawn on this chart that sets up the FLAG/Pennant formation. Although price broke through the lows of the FLAG/Pennant formation, we still consider it valid because it confirms on other US major indexes. Should the Dow Jones fail to move above the previous price high, near early July 2019, then we believe the Resistance Channel will reject price near current levels and force it lower (filling a recent gap and targeting the $25,500 level or lower).
Custom Volatility Index Chart
Our Custom Volatility Index chart shows a similar type of setup. Price weakness is evident near the upper channel level of this chart. This chart is very helpful for our research team because it puts price peaks and troughs into perspective within a “channeling-type” of rotating range. You can see that previous major price peaks have always settled above 16 or 17 on this chart. And previous major price bottoms have always settled below 7 or 8 on this chart. The current price volatility level is just above 13 – just entering the weakness zone in an uptrend. If price were to fail near this level, a move toward 8 would not be out of the question. We just have to watch and see how price reacts over the next few weeks to determine if these weakness channels will push price lower.
Gold Monthly Chart
If our research is correct, the entire move higher in precious metals, originating near the bottom in December 2015, is a complex wave formation setting up a WAVE 1 upside move. This complex wave formation is likely to consist of a total of 5 price waves (as you can see from the chart below) and will likely end with Gold trading well above the $2000 price level near or before June 2020.
If this analysis is correct, we are about to enter a very big, volatile and potentially violent price move in the global markets that could rip your face off if you are not prepared.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS”
This BEAST of a market is about to explode as we’ve highlighted by this research and these charts. It may start ripping our faces off in less than 30 days or it could take longer. One thing is for sure, the global markets are set up for something big and precious metals are beating our foreheads saying “hey, look over here!! This is where risk is trailing into as the markets continue to set up for this volatile price move!!”.
If you are not ready for this move, then we suggest you visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you stay ahead of these big swings in the markets.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
I have had a series of great trades this month. In fact, over the past 20 months, my trading newsletter portfolio has generated over 100% return when compounded for members. And we locking in more profits on Tuesday with the Russell 2000 index. So, if you believe in technical analysis, then this is the newsletter and market condition for you to really shine.
Be prepared for these price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.
Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/51-1.png588850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-09-11 12:50:062019-09-11 12:50:06Metals & The US Dollar – How It All Relates – Part II
