Our research team wanted to share this chart with our friends and followers. This dramatic breakdown in price over the past 4+ days has resulted in a very clear bearish trigger which was confirmed by our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system. We believe this downside move will target the $251 level on the SPY over the next few weeks and months.
Clearly, we were well ahead of this correction and issued multiple warnings to our friends and followers. This week we locked in 9.48% on GDXJ at the open on Monday, and today we are writing to suggest that $251 on the SPY is real support (see the magenta/purple area/line on this chart) and pay attention to the real risks at play in the markets.
This would suggest that the major markets will wipe out about 25% of the valuations in the major averages (ES, NQ, and YM), before finding any real support. Obviously, there is a level near $208 that appears in RED on this chart. If $251 fails to hold as support, then we immediately start to look at that $208 level for ultimate support.
This is the time when you want skilled researchers and traders backing you up and sourcing real solid trade opportunities for you. We’ve been warning about this move for many months, suggesting that 2020 was going to be an incredible year for skilled traders and warning that a large downside price rotation was likely after August 2019.
In fact, one of our researchers predicted this move back in February/March 2019. Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you stay ahead of these massive trends and find real opportunities in the markets.
As our research team continues to pour over the charts and look for any signs of direction regarding tomorrow’s Fed news, we put together a couple the charts that may highlight some expectations and in at what the markets may do the rest of the week.
The expectations that the US Federal Reserve may maintain rates at current levels or potentially drop rates by a quarter percent leaves an open interpretation as to how the global markets will digest this news. Obviously, leaving rates unchanged would be the most benign action the Fed could take. Often though, the markets interpret this as a sign of weakness. Whereas a quarter percent decrease in the US fed rates would suggest that the Fed is preparing for future economic weakness in the US and potential global economy, yet investors may consider this as a very bullish reaction to the Fed.
Our belief is that the Fed will leave rates unchanged and possibly hint at adjusting rates lower later this year or early next year in preparation for the US presidential elections. The US economy is still moderately strong and the recent trade deal with Mexico as well as policy advancement in DC leads us to believe the Fed has no reason to adjust rates right now. Of course, a quarter percent decrease would allow the Fed to spur additional economic growth and potentially jump-start the waning housing market in the US.
This first chart of the YM, the Dow E-mini futures, highlights key price technical support and resistance that will likely come into play over the next 3 to 10 weeks. We ask you to pay special attention to the dual resistance levels above 26,500. These double resistance levels act as a double ceiling in regards to price advancement. In other words, some type of strong price advance of 27,000 would have to take place in order for the price to move beyond these resistance areas.
Should the Fed surprised the market and the market interpreted this move as strongly bullish, there is a moderate chance that the YM could advance beyond 27,000 before the end of this week or early next week. We believe the Fed news tomorrow will be interpreted as a protectionist stance and the market made move lower from current highs. Any big rotation lower after the Fed announcement tomorrow could prompt a new downside trend to retest our pennant/flag formation base near 25,000. Either way, our automated technical analysis prediction software will keep or get on the right side of the market.
Additionally, after the Fed announcement tomorrow, it is very likely that the US dollar may, under some pricing pressure and that precious metals could rocket hire and continue their advance towards $1450. Any market reaction to the downside in the US stock market and/or the US dollar would likely push precious metals well above recent highs. It all depends on how the market reacts to the US Fed announcement tomorrow, June 19.
We believe we have positioned our gold trades appropriately for the Fed news tomorrow. Either way, we believe gold, precious metals, and the miners will advance after the Fed news tomorrow. A close above $1375 in gold will prompt a very quick rallied towards $1440.
We’ll continue to watch how the markets react to the Fed news tomorrow with the knowledge that precious metals and gold should advance either way as fear and greed drive the metals higher. We’ll look for new trades near the end of next week after the Fed news shakes out the short term traders. There is nothing wrong with being on the right side of a profitable trade in precious metals and miners.
If you want to trade profitably with us and fellow traders from in 87 other countries be sure to join our Wealth Building Newsletters Today!
Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/20-1.png340691adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-06-18 18:28:482019-06-18 18:28:48Fed May Trigger Wild Swing In Index and Metals
Now that the April 21 ~ 24 Gold “momentum base” prediction that we’ve been discussing for the past 4+ months has past and appears to be accurate, we think it is time to start warning of increased market volatility and the potential for a market “shake-out” to happen. Last week was a key component to our future price predictions and market projections. We believed our proprietary price modeling systems were accurate and had latched onto a key component of the markets – the “momentum base” call in Gold for April 21 ~ 24 of this year. Remember, this original research post was made in September 2018 – over 7 months ago. We kept refining our research over the past 4+ months and warned, repeatedly, that this base in Gold would likely prompt a market shake-out over the next 30~60+ days.
The moves in the major markets, over the past few weeks, have been very telling. With the SPY and NASDAQ pushing to new all-time highs, strong earnings (overall) and the global markets setting up for another shoe to drop (at some point in the future), it leaves many questions for skilled traders. What’s going to happen next and what should we expect from price?
Well, we have a few simple answers for you regarding the next few weeks expectations as well as some bigger future predictions.
First, Crude Oil rotated dramatically lower on Friday. This was a big downward price rotation considering the Trump/Iran deal stance early on in the week. A disruption in the supply of Oil is often a driver of bigger market swings. I learned a long time ago to watch Gold and Oil all the time. These are often the leading commodities that reflect fear/greed in the markets and potential global unrest.
With Crude Oil slipping below a key Fibonacci trigger level (at $65.25) and another key Fibonacci trigger level sitting at $61.60, it seems rather obvious that Oil may slip back below $60 on deeper price rotation over the next few weeks which could lead to a bigger “shake-out” in the markets. We recently posted an article about how Oil could rotate lower and retest the sub $55 level (https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/oil-may-be-setup-for-a-move-back-50/ ). At this point, a breakdown of oil prices below the $61.60 level would indicate the very strong potential for further downside price.
Precious metals have setup our momentum base/bottom on the dates we predicted over 4+ months ago (April 21 ~24). It is incredible that our ADL price modeling system can be so accurate so far into the future. Our proprietary price modeling systems provide us with an incredible advantage over most other research firms. The ADL and Fibonacci price modeling systems are predicting an upside price advance of at least 12% to 20% over the next few weeks. Read one of our original research posts here: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/45-days-until-a-multi-year-breakout-for-precious-metals/
The upside price potential in precious metals should not be overlooked. Additionally, the implication that some other global market malaise could unfold between now and the end of 2019 to drive precious metals prices even higher is fairly strong. We’ve been warning that Europe, China, and even the US markets could come under some pricing pressure or increased volatility as the US markets establish new price highs. It makes sense that traders would be preparing for another deep price rotation as prices near previous peak levels.
The Transportation Index rotated downward near the end of the week quite hard. Thursday, April 25, saw the Transportation Index fall over -250 pts (over -2.25%) after briefly breaching a key resistance level near $11,050. As we’ve been suggesting, the Transportation Index typically leads the markets by a few week/months and we follow it as a means of understanding future trends, risks and price rotations. Right now, the Transportation Index is suggesting increase price rotation and price volatility is likely to “shake-out” the markets for a while.
Lastly, the YM (Dow Futures), is setting up in a very narrow price channel below the recent all-time high established in early October 2018 (at $26,966). This decreased price volatility suggests that the US major indexes are setting up for a price breakout move. Congesting price channels suggest that price is stuck within a defined price range/channel and the ultimate breakout move will likely be a big breakout move to one side or the other. We have our suspicion as to which direction the move will likely be and we’ll share it with you now. Our longer-term analysis suggests that price will continue to push higher while attempting new all-time price highs. Our expectations that price volatility will increase throughout the rest of 2019 suggest we could see some very big price swings over the next 7+ months. But for right now, we believe this YM price channel will result in a brief upside price breakout that will push the YM price to new all-time highs (briefly) before retracing to form another extended sideways price channel near $27,000. Stocks, in general, are doing well as all our positions rallied last week with one stock jumping over 11% in one session.
Below, we have included a Daily YM chart that highlights this current price channel in MAGENTA. Pay very close attention to this channel as we near the eventual price breakout that will end this congestion. Weakness may prompt a “false breakout” to the downside, suckering in shorts, before a continued upside rally pushes prices over the $27,000 market, then stalling to set up the next Pennant/Flag formation. We’ve seen this type of price action many times in the past. Any downside “false breakdown” would prompt a big increase in volatility. This aligns with our broader market analysis. The push to the upside to establishing new all-time highs also aligns with our broader market analysis. Thus, we expect a pretty big series of price events to unfold over the next 2~5+ weeks.
If you like our research and want to learn how we can help you find and execute great trades, please visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com. Get ready for the next big moves and learn how our team of skilled researchers and traders can help you stay ahead of these market moves.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/chart29.png387700adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-04-29 09:50:002019-04-29 09:50:00Markets Are Setting Up A Shake-Out – Be Prepared
