Everyone I know who is not involved in the stock market or has little knowledge about it is calling me and asking what stocks, indexes, and commodities to buy because everything is so cheap and dividends are juicy again.
Just look at the market sentiment chart, and price cycles that the stock market goes through, and listen to my talk below while reviewing these to images. It’s not rocket science, but the lack of education on the financial markets coupled with the force of greed to make money and miss out on the next big bull market has everyone getting suckered into this dead-cat bounce, also known as a bear trap, bear market rally.
If you want to see something else really exciting/nerve-wracking/ and real check out this post on the Stock Market Top.
A subscriber to my market video analysis and ETF trading newsletter said it perfectly:
“Always intrigues me how many amateur surfers get to the north shore beaches in Hawaii, take one look at monster waves and conclude it’s way too dangerous. Yet the amateur trader looks at treacherous markets like these and wants to dive right in!!”Richard P.
I have to toot my own horn here a little because subscribers and I had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark for our accounts. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way.
As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is going to be an incredible year for skilled traders. Don’t miss all the incredible moves and trade setups.
I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts. These simple to follow ETF swing trades have our trading accounts sitting at new high water marks yet again this week, not many traders can say that this year. Visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.
We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.
If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.
Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/120.jpg834573adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2020-04-15 14:38:332020-04-15 14:38:33Could This Be a “Suckers” Rally?
As the global markets enter the Q1 earnings season where a host of new data and expectations will flood the markets over the next 30+ days, skilled traders should put these three symbols on their watch-list over the next few days and weeks.
We’ve been writing about how we believe the downside risks within the US and global stock markets are still very real. Many industry analysts believe the bottom has set up in the US stock market already – we don’t believe this is the case. Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system continues to suggest a deeper downside move is in the works and we believe this potential retest of recent lows will setup another incredible opportunity for skilled traders.
Recently, we’ve posted a number of research articles to help you understand what is really taking place in the global markets. The COVID-19 virus has set-off a consumer demand contraction event that will ripple across all sectors of the global economy. There is no other way to interpret the data right now – if consumers don’t come back into the economy at levels near the late 2019 engagement levels, then the global economy will continue to contract. Consumers make up over 85% of GDP values.
HERE ARE SOME OF OUR MOST RECENT ARTICLES TO ASSIST YOU…
Now, onto the three symbols setting up an incredible upside opportunity if the global markets rotate lower as our predictive modeling is suggesting…
FAZ – DIREXON INVERSE FINANCIAL SECTOR ETF
The first symbol is FAZ. This ETF moves higher as the financial sector stocks move lower. These include banks, financial institutions, and other financial services companies. The reason we believe FAZ has a potential to move higher is that we believe the lack of consumer engagement in retail, restaurants, leisure shopping and other types of normal spending activities will put incredible pressure on business loans, consumer loans, commercial and residential real estate, business credit lines and many other aspects of the financial sector. Simply put, it would be foolish to think that some level of default and/or extended risks would not come from any type of consumer disengagement from the economy. Again, consumers make up over 85% of the total GDP levels. If we take away even 20% to 30% of these consumers, we could see a dramatic collapse in certain sectors of the economy.
Thus, we believe the Financial sector is poised for another downside price move which will prompt a rise in FAZ from current levels to near $50~$60. This represents 65% to 85%+ upside potential.
The MidCap sector is uniquely vulnerable to any economic contraction related to consumer activity. Many of the Midcap companies are uniquely consumer-based and/or consumer sector related. Thus, should another market downtrend attempt to retest recent lows or attempt to set up a deeper price bottom, the Midcap 400 ETF may see an incredible upside price move. Upside price targets are near $29 to $30 – which is 55% to 65% higher than the current price level. Ultimately, any deeper price lows set up because of a deeper price bottom setting up in the US and global markets could push MZZ well above $35.
QID – PROSHARES ULTRASHORT QQQ ETF
The last symbol we believe could see a big upside move related to increased future risk in the US and global markets is QID – the NASDAQ Inverted ETF. The reason we believe risks in the US and global major markets may bleed over into this ETF is that the NASDAQ has been a major component of US & foreign investment over the past 24+ months. Global investors continue to believe that technology firms will out-perform the general market – thus, more capital has poured into this sector of the market over the past 20+ months than many other sectors.
This capital influx also creates an opportunity for contrarian traders if the markets fail to recover – as many people believe will happen. This capital that has recently poured into the NASDAQ may become “at-risk” if another deeper downside price move takes place. Investors may have hard stops in place and forced selling may take place if the markets attempt to establish a deeper price bottom in the near future.
Conservatively, an upside price move in QID to levels near $27 (45%) is the first Fibonacci target. Further upside target levels near $30.50, $42.50 and $44.25 also exist. Of course, these higher target levels would be the result of a much deeper global market collapse where a deeper bottom in price is established.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
We believe these three symbols present very real opportunities for skilled technical traders. Wait for the right setup and confirmation before jumping into these trades. If the US and global markets begin to move lower on poor earnings or economic data, jump over to these charts to see how they are reacting to price weakness. There is a very real opportunity for 20~40+% profits in each of these charts with the right setup in place.
As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is going to be an incredible year for skilled traders. Don’t miss all the incredible moves and trade setups.
I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts. These simple to follow ETF swing trades have our trading accounts sitting at new high water marks yet again this week, not many traders can say that this year. Visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.
We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.
If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.
Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/111.png601850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2020-04-15 14:29:002020-04-15 14:29:00Downside Opportunities Everywhere – Watch These Symbols
Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system incorporates an intelligent “Inference Engine” into internal decision-making and future analysis. This type of “Adaptive Learning” is one of the core elements of Artificial Intelligence – the ability to read inputs, adapting to price structures and setups and infer expected outcomes/results based on a complex decision-making process. Today, we are alerting you that our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting $26 is the next target level for Silver (which is currently trading near $15.65).
Learning how to interpret the data presented by our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is simple – it does the internal analysis automatically and presents future target levels and trigger levels on the charts as lines and blocks. Trigger levels are set up as both GREEN and RED lines for current Bullish and Bearish Trends. Each of these trends also has target BLOCKS drawn out into the future representing where the Adaptive Fibonacci system believes the next price target will be located. These target levels are determined by the Adaptive Learning Inference Engine and represent the best outcome of the true Fibonacci price structure we can deliver.
WEEKLY SILVER CHART
This Weekly Silver chart highlights the incredible +66% upside opportunity setting up based on our research. Silver continues to underperform compared to Gold and it continues to be overlooked as a safe-haven metal. Back in September 2019, we authored this article suggesting Silver would become the “Super-Hero” of precious metals. That research is still very valid today.
This Weekly Silver chart highlights our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system’s results and clearly shows you the upside price target near $26. We believe the US and Global stock markets may continue to weaken as earnings and forward guidance continue to rattle investors’ expectations. This uncertainty will translate into a continued upside price rally in Metals. Gold will obviously lead the way higher, yet we believe the sleeper metal is Silver. Once silver clears recent highs near $19.75, be prepared for an incredible parabolic upside move.
DAILY GOLD CHART
The other aspect of this move is that Gold will continue to move higher as well. The next upside target for gold is $1840, followed by a brief pause in price, then a continued rally to levels near $2000. If you think the metals rally it sputtering out right now, we urge you to reconsider your thinking.
Precious metals will likely continue to rally higher and higher, eventually entering a parabolic upside price rally, as global concerns reach a peak. After the US and Global stock markets set up a real price bottom, metals will continue to rally for 8 to 12+ months after that bottom has setup. Metals are about to become one of the fastest-growing assets on the planet and may not stop until well into 2021 or 2022.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
Do yourself a favor and take a minute to review some of our most recent market research and really prepare for the rally in metals. That last Weekly Gold chart highlights what we believe will be the initial upside price rally (in YELLOW) and shows how Gold will target $2000, then briefly pause, then attempt another upside move to levels above $2300. Our real upside price target for the long-term Fibonacci peak in Gold is near $3750 – that should tell you something really important.
As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is going to be an incredible year for skilled traders. Don’t miss all the incredible moves and trade setups.
I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts. These simple to follow ETF swing trades have our trading accounts sitting at new high water marks yet again this week, not many traders can say that this year. Visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.
We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.
If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.
Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/102.png601850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2020-04-15 13:33:032020-04-15 13:33:03AI Fibonacci Modeling Predicts $26 As Next Silver Target
As we’ve attempted to illustrate the intuitive nature of the Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system we as one of the tools to help us understand the markets and price setups, we now want to more clearly illustrate other components of the current global economic environment. We want to illustrate just how deep the current price move resonates against historical price norms.
In Part I of this article, we highlighted the Fibonacci system running on the ES (S&P 500) charts. The point of this example was to show that a new price low had already been established and a recent new price high (the all-time high peak) was now acting as a critical price peak. This suggests we are in the process of establishing a much deeper price low (bottom) that may come over the next few weeks as price attempts to “revalue” current economic expectations.
In Part II of this article, we highlighted the Fibonacci Price Theory concepts and attempted to teach you how to identify major and minor Fibonacci price pivot points. This was done to help you understand what we are attempting to share with you and to help you learn to use these techniques in the future. The conclusion of that, Part II, shared our expectations that a new, deeper low, would likely set up in the ES and NQ markets as price attempts to establish a future bottom setup.
In Part III of this article, we shared with you the NQ (Nasdaq) Fibonacci price analysis which was similar to the ES charts. We are attempting to share with you the reality that price will setup intermediate high and low price pivots over time. But we are really trying to explain how the major price pivots have now set up as a massive warning that a deeper low may be targeted as long as price fails to recover to levels near the all-time highs. As “obvious” as that may seem to you now, many traders are already entering the markets expecting a recovery similar to May 2018 or January 2019 to begin. We urge you to reconsider the scope of this disruption of the global economy.
The first chart we want to share with you is a Weekly chart of our Custom Smart Cash Index. This chart clearly illustrates just how destructive the recent collapse in the global economy has been. Previous downside price rotations (Feb 2018 & October~December 2018) prompted downside price moves that stayed within the upward sloping price channel established from the 2015~2016 price range setup.
We believe this new downside price cycle will establish a new support channel for future price growth that may include a transition away from traditional economic measures. Essentially, a “new normal” related to debt and economic expectations.
We believe this COVID-19 virus event may be unwinding a large portion of capital appreciation that originated back in 2000~2002 – after the DOT COM and 9/11 Terrorist attacks in NY. Since that time, the US Fed and global central banks have engaged in a series of QE experiments designed to spark economic activity. We believe the core element of the current COVID-19 economic contagion is not related to the central bank’s inability to print more money to throw at the problems in the markets. The problem exists that a healthy market must remove risky debt/credit issues and unhealthy deficits in order to sustain real forward growth opportunities. See this ZeroHedge article for a clear example of what we are attempting to explain: www.zerohedge.com
Looking at some of the charts from the ZeroHedge article, it becomes clear that real economic growth (in relation to proper debt expansion and economic function) likely completed a transitional cycle end near 1999~2002. This came after the US Fed reached peak interest rate levels in the early 1980s and began a deficit spending binge that continues till today. As credit/debt became the new norm, we can see how the expansion of credit created a broader expansion of capital valuation levels (global stock market prices) and provided for an expansion of derivatives and global shadow banking operations. Debt begot more debt/credit – which begot more debt/credit. And the cycle continues until it breaks.
We believe the unwinding process of the global credit market is really just beginning. The COVID-19 virus event was just the catalyst for this event. The virus event prompted a collapse in the global economy because of the global economic shutdown that took place to prevent the spread of the virus. This shutdown strained the global economic/credit market and continues to do so today, by exposing many at-risk companies and business enterprises that were operating on the “fringe” – that space where lack of consumer engagement creates a void in income while debt levels continue to plague future operations. We believe this process of UN-leveraging debt will continue until the markets decide a suitable amount of risk has been removed from the markets. This is when global economic expansion and growth will begin to take hold.
WEEKLY CUSTOM VOLATILITY INDEX – DELEVERAGING IS THE NEW NORMAL
This Weekly Custom Volatility Index highlights the potential for a “new normal” range as the recent deep low levels on this chart suggests a “deleveraging” process is currently taking place. Even as the US Fed and global central banks pour trillions into the markets, this Custom Volatility Index continues to suggest deleveraging is still ongoing throughout the global markets. Our research team believes the US Fed and global central banks are simply sucking up the immediate risk “froth” in the global markets while the “real meat” of the issue still persists.
PRECIOUS METALS ANALYSIS POINTS TO HIGHER PRICES LONG TERM
This analysis leads us to Precious Metals – yes, we know, everyone is talking about Gold and Silver right now. Yet, the real reason we are talking about Gold and Silver is because we believe the current economic environment will present an incredible (once in a lifetime) opportunity for skilled traders. Once you truly understand the process that is taking place throughout the globe and how debt/credit expansion over the past 45+ years has propelled the capital markets to massive highs while the metals market has been ignored.
Recently, Gold has rallied to a 6+ year high and Silver is still trading near multi-year lows. The reality is that the global stock market is about to experience a credit/debt revaluation event that is unlike anything we’ve seen since 1929 and/or WWII. Precious metals are about to enter a phase that has never been experienced in recent history. What happens to safe-havens throughout the process of a global market credit/debt crisis event? What happens to metals as the global economy attempts to wash-away excessive debt, derivatives and shadow banking risks that have built up over the past 40+ years?
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
If we are correct and our Fibonacci price modeling systems are correct, a deeper price low in the global markets is about to set up that will attempt to force a “wash-out” event in the global credit/debt markets. This process will likely send precious metals skyrocketing higher. The unknowns of this process are the same unknowns that happened after 1929 & WWII – what will the new financial functions and societal structure be composed of? Until that side of the future becomes more clear, expect a number of unknown factors to continue to drive excessive volatility and risk in the global markets.
As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is going to be an incredible year for skilled traders. Don’t miss all the incredible moves and trade setups.
I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts. These simple to follow ETF swing trades have our trading accounts sitting at new high water marks yet again this week, not many traders can say that this year. Visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.
We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.
If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.
Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/81.png927850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2020-04-15 13:03:592020-04-15 13:03:59AI Trading System Using Fibonacci Theory Forecasts Future Gold, Silver & Stock prices – Part IV
Larry Jacobs owner and editor of TradersWorld magazine published a free special report with his top article and market forecast to his readers yesterday.
What is really exciting is that this forecast for all assets has played out exactly as expected from the stock market crash within his time window to the gold rally, and sharp sell-off. These forecasts have just gotten started the recent moves were only the first part of his price forecasts.
There is only one article in this special supplement, click on the image or link below to download and read it today!
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/210.png657467adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2020-04-02 13:34:092020-04-02 13:34:09Founder of TradersWorld Magazine Issued Special Report for Free
Yesterday I had a great call with Moe Ansari, who has over 40 years of experience trading and investing. We talked about the market and some technical analysis as to what we think about everything happening right now.
Moe and I share a comment thought which is:
IT IS NOT WHAT YOU MAKE, IT IS
WHAT YOU KEEP THAT COUNTS.
I have been pounding on the table for weeks since we closed out last trade in TLT for 20.07% profit on Feb 23rd, that cash is king, and it is more important to avoid uncertainty than it is to try and trade the random and volatile price action.
Subscribers of my ETF trading newsletter love the fact that our trading portfolio is at a NEW HIGH WATERMARK, and we completely sidestepped this market correction, which turned into a full out market crash.
I won’t lie. I knew a market correction was starting, which is why I adjusted our trailing stops to protect us if things began to turn south. But I did not expect a market collapse that would start a new bear market.
The good news is that because I strictly use technical analysis, position-sizing, and management of positions for profit-taking and trailing stops. We will never be caught on the wrong side of the market for more than a few days. So when a market collapse happens like what we are experiencing now, it does not affect our financial outlook.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for short-term swing traders.
Visit my ETF Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/120.png149336adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2020-03-25 14:55:112020-03-25 14:55:11Market Wrap Technical Take with Moe & Chris – Audio
Has the selloff ended? When will it end? What will the bottom look like and am I at risk of taking further losses? What should I do?
Do you want to take a guess at how many of our friends and family members are calling us over the past week or so asking these questions? Personally, I get bombarded with dozens of emails every day from friends and other family members asking “where’s the bottom? What should I do?”.
This post is going to help you understand the structure of the markets and what is really happening. Price always attempts to seek out new price highs or new price lows. In this case, we are seeking out new price lows with a downside price rotation. Price structure, which is normally discussed in Elliot Wave structures is the process of setting up new higher high or lower low waves as price rotates in a defined wave structure. Keep in mind the broader wave structure that is currently unfolding.
Over the past 16+ months, we’ve suggested that the price rotation in 2018 was a Wave 4 downside price rotation of a Wave C upside price structure. If our analysis is correct, the last rally we just experienced (ending near February 1, 2020) was the end of a Wave 5 upside price move that completed the Wave C upside price structure. This would indicate a very real possibility that the current downside price trend is a Wave 4 downside price move.
For readers that are not familiar with the Elliot Wave process/structure, each major wave (1 through 5 or A through C) can consist of various types of minor wave structures (as you can see from the middle chart in the example above. The major wave 1 could consist of a 5 wave minor wave structure (as shown). The major wave 2 could consist of a 3 wave minor wave structure (as shown) or even a downside 5 wave structure.
Going even further, each of these minor wave structure could consist of even smaller price wave structures. These types of price rotations often populate in 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 13 and 21 wave structures. Unlocking the major wave count and minor wave count can help us unlock swing trading and day trading opportunities.
So, to put into context what we are attempting to convey to you is that we believe the peak in early February 2020 was the end of a major wave 3 and the start of a major wave 4 (to the downside). Because the upside price wave 3 originated after the 2009-10 price bottom, we believe true support in the markets is likely the midpoint of the 2018 price rotation range or near the low price levels of 2018. These price levels represent a very clear support level and low price target level that continues to follow the price structure rules of Fibonacci and Elliot Wave. If the 2018 lows are breached and the markets continue to push lower, then we fall back to the 2016 price lows and midpoint level.
WEEKLY YM CHART – DOW JONES
This Weekly YM chart highlights the two lower MAGENTA lines that we believe represent clear price support for the Dow Jones (24,000 & 21,450). At this point, the YM has already moved below the 24,000 level and closed trading on Monday, March 9, near 23,900. Although this price level has breached the 24,000 level, we do not consider “support” a hard level (like concrete). It is like water in many cases and it matters what price does when it reaches this level. If price finds support near this level, it will begin to bottom out and potentially trade sideways before attempting to move higher. If not, the price may stall near this 24,000 level before breaking down to the 21,450 level (or lower).
We do believe the INDU/YM will put in a bottom before the ES and NQ do. Thus, we believe support will be found in the INDU/YM well before support is found in the other major US stock market indexes.
SPY WEEKLY CHART – S&P 500
This SPY Weekly chart highlights the same setup with the two MAGENTA lines we’ve drawn. The first level of support for SPY is $261~$262. We believe this midpoint of 2018 high to the low trading range will offer a fairly strong support level for the SPY to attempt to set up a price bottom. Below that, the $234 level (the lower range of the 2018 trading year) would provide very clear support for the SPY.
The same type of price theory and expectations are at play on this chart as with the YM chart above. The YM has already reached our first level of support, yet the SPY is still $12 away from this first support level. This would suggest the YM may begin to set up some type of price support while the SPY may continue to trail a bit lower over time.
If this first level of support does not hold, then we would be looking for the 2018 price low levels (near $234) to become the next target for support. Ultimately, the price must either continue to attempt to break previous low price points as it attempts to establish “new price lows” or, at some point, it will fail to break past lows and that is where it will find support. The midpoint, often called the “belt line” (a Japanese Candlestick term) is used by technicians for two reasons: first, it represents 50% of a defined price range and, second, Japanese Candlestick theory teaches us the BeltLine is “the center of control” or price. Once price breaks this level, then further trending may continue.
NQ WEEKLY CHART – NASDAQ
Lastly, this NQ Weekly chart with the three MAGENTA lines drawn on it. The top line is the 2018 price peak level. The middle line is the midpoint of the 2018 trading range. The lower line is the bottom of the 2018 trading range.
The NQ has been the high-flying sector in the US stock market for many months. You can see the massive rally that took place near the end of 2019 pushing the NQ up to nearly 10,000 before the recent correction. Compared to the YM and SPY charts, it is easy to see the NQ rallied much stronger than the others. This is why we believe the downside price move in the NQ could also be far greater in scope than the YM or SPY.
If the NQ falls to our midpoint level (near 6795), the NQ must call another -1100 points to reach this level. Whereas the YM has already reached this critical price level and the SPY is only about $12 away from that same level. Therefore, the NQ, in our opinion, could continue to trend broadly lower throughout Q1 and possibly into Q2 before finding any real support.
The low price range of 2018 puts final support for the NQ near 5,832. From current levels, if price falls to this support level, it would total an additional -2066 point decline (-26.11%). It would also represent a massive -40% selloff from the peak set in February 2020 (near 9763).
Where’s the bottom? What’s next? Our advice would be NOT to chase this selloff and NOT to attempt to bottom pick this move. We believe the Covid-19 virus event will last well past April/May 2020 and we believe both Q1 and Q2 results will be far below expectations. Therefore, we don’t believe any real bottom will setup before May, June or July of 2020 – after Q2 earnings are announced and contingent on the virus event subsiding and earnings starting to recover. Otherwise, we could be “searching for a bottom” for quite a while yet.
Still, massive price rotations are taking place in the major markets and various sectors. If you are a skilled trader and are able to manage risk properly, you should be able to identify multiple opportunities over the next 90+ days for incredible trades. We know we certainly are finding them.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for short-term swing traders.
Visit my ETF Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
Our research team caught a very interesting price pattern that correlates with the Put/Call ratio. We are alerting our friends and followers with this research post of this exciting, yet unconfirmed, set up today.
In late 2017, the US stock market rallied from July through December with moderately low volatility throughout this span of time. Near the end of 2017, the US stock market price activity stalled, then began a renewed price rally in early 2018 (see the first BLUE & YELLOW BOX on the chart below). Then, in January 2018, a very broad market reversion event took place which ultimately resulted in a very broad market correction in October through December 2018 of just over 20%.
The current price rally ending 2019 and starting 2020 is strangely similar to the price setup that occurred in 2017 and 2018. We’ve seen a broad “melt-up” price pattern over the last 5+ months of 2019 with moderately low volatility. We experienced a moderate price “stall” near the end of 2019 and experienced a broader renewed upside price rally in early 2020 (see the second BLUE and YELLOW BOX on the chart below). We believe this could be a setup for a potential price reversion event in the near future – all we need is confirmation of the downside price rotation to take place.
A deeper price reversion event at this price level that equals the previous reversion event would push the SPY price towards the $265 price level – a 68 point price drop. If such an event took place, we would be looking at a -15% to -25% potential price correction from current levels.
Let’s take a look at other charts and data that may confirm our research…
WEEKLY SPY (S&P 500) INDEX CHART – JAN 2018 AND JAN 2020
WEEKLY VIX CHART
This Weekly VIX chart highlights the consolidation of volatility that set up in late 2017 and late 2019. Pay special attention to how broadly the VIX spiked in early 2018. This spike happened because of the consolidation of volatility near lower extremes over the past 16+ months. Given the recent volatility throughout 2018 and 2018, a downside price move of a similar range would likely propel the VIX to levels above 40~45. Price would need to collapse below our expected range in order for VIX to spike above 50. A move of this nature would suggest a downside price move beyond 25% to 30% – pushing the SPY below $240.
Again, our research team believes this is an unconfirmed price pattern setup. We want you to be aware of what we are seeing in the chart and be prepared if it confirms in the future.
DAILY PUT/CALL RATIO CHART
Another interesting aspect of this setup is the correlation to the PUT/CALL ratio on the chart below. Every instance of the Put/Call ratio that fell below 0.80 for an extended period of time (2014, 2018 and now), prompted a downside price reversion of -10% to -15%. Additionally, each instance of this setup (2014 and 2018) prompted an extended period of price volatility and rotation.
In 2014, the initial downside price reversion prompted a -13% to -15% price correction followed by nearly 8 to 10 months of extended price rotation before finally entering a new bullish price trend in late 2016. Additionally, in 2018, the initial downside price reversion event wiped out nearly 12% of the value on the initial downside price move from this event. Subsequently, over the next 12+ months, a second downside price move wiped out over 20% of the value from the SPY.
The current setup suggests any potential downside price reversion resulting from this setup we are alerting you to could easily target -12% to -15% on an initial reversion event. Ultimately, the rest of 2020 could result in a very volatile year of price rotation if history teaches us anything.
Remember, this is not a confirmed trading trigger. This is a warning that a price and technical setup is occurring in the markets that may become of real value to you in the immediate future. The combination of these three charts, the SPY, the VIX and the PUT/CALL ratio, should be enough for you to understand there are real risks of a price reversion event setting up in the markets right now. All we need to confirm this setup would be for a broader market breakdown event to begin to take place. Then, we would watch what happens to the SPY near the $295 to $300 level.
Please pay attention to this setup as our researchers believe this could be a much bigger event than many people believe. Our research team believes a price reversion event is essential for the US stock market to continue to climb higher in 2020. Thus, some type of downside price move MUST happen before we can attempt any further upside price advancement.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997 I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles, I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
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NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research. It is provided for educational purposes only. Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed. Visit our web site (www.thetechnicaltraders.com) to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.
Chris Vermeulen joins me today to shares his trading strategy for 4 different markets. While most of these markets are not correlated he has reasons for why he is long in each. Pick and choose where you want to deploy your capital.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/audio-image-1.jpg10001000adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2020-01-23 12:12:152020-01-23 12:12:15Trading Strategies For GDXJ, SPY, Bonds, And Natural Gas
One of our most interesting predictive modeling system is the Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) price modeling system. It is capable of learning from past price data, building price DNA chains and attempting to predict future price activity with a fairly high degree of accuracy. The one thing we’ve learned about the ADL system is that when price mirrors the ADL predictive modeling over a period of time, then there is often a high probability that price will continue to mirror the ADL price predictions.
One of our more infamous ADL predictions was our October 2018 Gold ADL prediction chart (below). This chart launched a number of very interesting discussions with industry professionals about predictive modeling and our capabilities regarding Adaptive Learning. Eric Sprott, of Sprott Money, highlighted some of our analyses related to the ADL predictive modeling system in June and July 2019. Our ADL predictive modeling system suggested a bottom would form in Gold near April/May 2019 and then Gold would rally up toward $1600 by September 2019, then rotate a bit lower near $1550 levels.
LISTEN TO WHAT ERIC SPROTT SAID ABOUT OUR ANALYSIS
OCTOBER 2018 GOLD FORECAST
CURRENT 2020 GOLD FORECAST
This next chart shows what really happened with Gold prices compared to the ADL predictions above. It is really hard to argue that the ADL predictions from October 2018 were not DEAD ON accurate in terms of calling and predicting the future price move in Gold. Will the ADL predictions for the NQ play out equally as accurate in predicting a downward price rotation of 1000pts or more?
CURRENT 2020 NASDAQ FORECAST
This NQ Weekly chart shares out ADL Predictive Modeling systems results originating on September 23, 2019. The Price DNA markers for this analysis consist of 15 unique price bars suggesting the future resulting price expectations are highly probable outcomes (95% to 99.95%). This analysis suggests the end of 2019 resulting in a broad market push higher in early 2020 may come to an immediate end with a downward price move of 800 to 1000+ pts before January 20~27, 2020. The ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting price will be trading near 8000 by January 20th or so.
Only time will tell in regards to the future outcome of these ADL predictions, but given the current news of the US missile attack in Iraq and the uncertainty this presents, it would not surprise us to see the NQ fall below the 8000 level as this euphoric price rally rotates to find support before moving forward in developing a new price trend.
Pay attention to what happens early next week with regards to price and understand the 8000 level will likely be strong support unless something breaks the support in the markets over the next 30+ days. Ultimate support near 7200 is also a possibility if a deeper downside move persists.
As we’ve been warning for many months, 2020 is going to be a fantastic year for skilled technical traders. You won’t want to miss these opportunities in precious metals, stocks, ETFs and others.
I am going to give away and ship out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans listed below, and you will receive:
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/10.png540999adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2020-01-06 12:49:492020-01-06 12:49:49NASDAQ Set to Fall 1000pts In Early 2020, and What it Means for Gold
