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Our Long-Anticipated Gold Momentum Rally Begins

Over the past 6+ months, we’ve been covering the price rotations in precious metals very closely.  We’ve issued a number of amazing calls regarding Gold and Silver over the past few months.  Two of the biggest calls we’ve made were the late 2018 research post that suggested Gold would rally to above $1300, then stall.  The other amazing call was our research team’s suggestion that April 21~24 would see Gold setup an Ultimate Base, or what we were calling a “Momentum Base”, near $1250 to $1275.

We issued both of these markets calls many months in advance of these dates/price levels targeting these moves.  In both cases, we issued these market calls well over 60 days prior to the move actually taking place.  The accuracy of these calls can be attributed to our proprietary price modeling solutions as well as the skill and techniques of our research team.  Don’t mind us while we take a few seconds to take credit for some truly amazing precious metals calls over the past 6+ months.

This Weekly Gold chart highlights just about everything we have been suggesting would happen over the past 12+ months.  The rally in Gold from below $1200 to almost $1350 setup an upside price leg that we believe is still just beginning.  The rotation lower, after the February 2019 highs, setup the Momentum Base near April 24 – RIGHT ON TARGET.  Now, the upside price advance that we’ve been predicting should launch Gold well above the $1400 price level appears to be setting up.

Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning price modeling system, as well as our Adaptive Fibonacci Price modeling system, have been key elements to unlocking these early calls.  You can read more about our earlier Gold and Silver calls by reading this article: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/adl-predictions-for-price-of-gold/

The next leg higher for Gold will see a price peak near $1450 before another brief sideways/stalling pattern sets up.  After that, our research suggests a rally will quickly drive Gold prices above $1550 (or much higher).

 

As we’ve been suggesting, Silver will likely lag behind Gold by about 20+ days.  We believe Silver is going to see an incredible upside price move – even bigger than Gold in percentage terms.  Our belief is that Silver will be trading above $26 to $28 per ounce – almost DOUBLE the recent low price level, when Gold will be trading just above $2000 per ounce.  The reason for this is the relationship between the Gold/Silver/US Dollar pricing levels – called the Gold/Silver Ratio.  The chart is below

When the ratio is above 0.80, we consider this to be a “Moderate Peak” zone for Gold.  Where the price of Gold (per ounce) represents more than 80 ounces of Silver.  The ratio of the price of Gold to the price of Silver is a fairly common measure to determine when Silver is very undervalued compared to Gold.  When the ratio typically falls above 0.80, then the price of Silver is very cheap compared to the price of Gold.  When this ration move above 0.90, these levels are Extreme Peaks in the disparity of pricing between Gold and Silver.  These are the areas where both Gold and Silver rally back to restore a ratio level closer to 0.60 or 0.65 (or lower).

This would indicate that the price of Silver will rally much faster than the price of Gold and in order for this ratio to move back to the 0.06 level, Silver would have to rally at a rate of 1.35:1 or 1.45:1 compared to Gold.

Custom Index – chart by TradingView

 

This Weekly Silver chart highlights the levels we are watching for the upside breakout in Silver to begin – $15.40 or higher and we believe the upside price move in Silver till accelerate well above $18 per ounce very quickly.  Again, the move in Silver will likely lag behind Gold by at least 20+ days.  So now if the time to buy Silver in physical form (or any form) as we prepare for this move.  Once it starts, we can promise you that the rally will be impressive and quick.

 

Watch how Gold and Oil react over the next few weeks as Fear re-enters the global markets.  Our belief is that Oil will fall while Gold initiates the first leg higher, towards $1400 to $1450 before stalling.  Once this happens, we can be certain a new upside price advance is beginning in Gold and this could be a fairly strong indicator that the markets are weakening and there is increased global fear.

This is proving to be an incredible trading year for traders who follow our trade alerts newsletter.

For active swing traders, you are going to love our daily trading analysis. On May 1st we talked about the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” and that is exactly what is happening now right on queue. In fact, we closed out our SDS position on Thursday for a quick 3.9% profit and our other new trade started Thursday is up 18% already.

Second, my birthday is only three days away and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.

Right now I am going to give away and shipping out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. I only have 4 left as they are going fast so be sure to upgrade your membership to a longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans, and you will receive:

1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)

2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)

I only have 4 more silver rounds I’m giving away
so upgrade or join now before its too late!

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!

Happy May Everyone!

Chris Vermeulen

Trade Issues Will Drive Market Trends – PART II

In PART I of this report we talked about and showed you the charts of the Hang Seng and DAX index charts and what is likely to unfold. In today’s report here we touch on the US markets. As we’ve suggested within our earlier research posts this year, US election cycles tend to prompt massive price rotations when the election cycles are intense.  For example, the 2000 election of George W. Bush prompted a very mild price rotation in 1999~2000.  This was likely because the transition from Clinton to Bush II was not overly contentious.  The 2008 election of Barrack Obama was a moderately contested election cycle and happened at the time of the biggest credit market collapse in modern history – thus, the markets were well on their way lower 12+ months before the elections.  The 2012 election cycle showed moderate price rotation as it was a highly contested election event in the US.  The 2015-16 election event was highly contested as well and the price rotation near this time appears longer and deeper than the 2012 event.

Now, in 2020, we have one of the biggest, most highly contested US election cycles in recent history unfolding and we have already begun to see a price range /rotation over the past 12+ months that suggests we could see even bigger price rotation.  If we add into this mix the US/China trade issues, global market concerns, US political rhetoric, and other issues, we have a recipe for A BIG MOVE setting up.

 

Our analysis still suggests that we are poised for an attempt at fresh new all-time highs before any massive price rotation takes place (near the upper trend line).  Yet, we believe the downside price rotation is an eventual component of the next 16+ months of the US election cycle and the future price advance that should take place in the near future.  In other words, we believe the markets are setting up for a bigger shake-out throughout this election cycle/trade issue event that will prompt lower prices before the end of 2019.  We do believe the markets will settle and resume an upward trend bias after this downside price rotation – yet we don’t know exactly when that will happen.

 

To the best of our ability to predict the future, we can state this at the moment.  It appears the end of 2019 will be filled with large price rotation – likely to the downside as trade issues and election/political issues cause a “shock-wave” in the markets.  We believe early 2020 will see a relief rally that may setup a bigger price move throughout the remainder of 2020.  Right now, traders need to be prepared for an incredible increase in volatility and price rotation.  It is very likely that we will see a VIX level above 40 at some point before the end of 2019.  This is a time for skilled traders to get in, get profits and get out.  Position trading over the next 12+ months will be very difficult.

For active swing traders, you are going to love our daily trading analysis. On May 1st we talked about the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” and that is exactly what is happening now right on queue. In fact, we closed out our SDS position on Thursday for a quick 3.9% profit and our other new trade started Thursday is up 18% already.

Second, my birthday is only three days away and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.

Right now I am going to give away and shipping out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. I only have 5 left as they are going fast so be sure to upgrade your membership to a longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans, and you will receive:

1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)

2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)

I only have 5 more silver rounds I’m giving away
so upgrade or join now before its too late!

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!

Happy May Everyone!

Chris Vermeulen

How To Trade The Current Market Volatility/Crash/Recovery

This is a delayed video sample of what I share with members to my Wealth Trading Newsletter each and every morning
before the market opens. Learn, Be Alerted, and Profit!

http://www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

How Chinese Trade Issues Will Drive Market Trends

It is becoming evident that the US/Chinese trade issues are going to become a point of contention for the markets going forward.  We’ve been review as much news as possible in an attempt to build a consensus for the future of the US markets and global markets.  As of last week, it appears any potential trade deal with China has reset back to square one.  The news we are reading suggests that China wants to reset their commitments with the US, remove all tariffs and wants the US to commit to buying certain levels of Chinese goods in the future.  Additionally, China has yet to commit to stopping the IP/Technology theft from US companies – which is a very big contention for the US.

This suggests the past 6+ months of trade talks have completely broken down and that this trade issue will likely become a market driver over the next 12+ months.  The global markets had anticipated a deal to be reached by the end of March 2019.  At that time, Trump announced that he was extending talks with China without installing any new tariffs.  The intent was to show commitment with China to reach a deal at that time – quickly.

It appears that China had different plans – the intention to delay and ignore US requests.  It is very likely that China has worked to secure some type of “plan B” type of scenario over the past 6+ months and they may feel they are negotiating from a position of power at this time.  Our assumption is that both the US and China feel their interests are best served by holding their cards close to their chests while pushing the other side to breakdown through prolonged negotiations.

Our observations are that an economic shift is continuing to take place throughout the globe that may see these US/China trade issues become the forefront issue over the next 12 to 24 months – possibly lasting well past the November 2020 US Presidential election cycle.  It seems obvious that China is digging in for a prolonged negotiation process while attempting to hold off another round of tariffs from the US.  Additionally, China is dealing with an internal process of trying to shift away from “shadow banking” to eliminate the risks associated with unreported corporate and private debt issues.

The limited, yet still valid, resources we have from within China are suggesting that layoffs are very common right now and that companies are not hiring as they were just a few months ago. One of our friends/sources suggested the company he worked for has been laying off employees for over 30 days now and he just found out he was laid-off last week.  He works in the financial field.

We believe the long term complications resulting from a prolonged US/China trade war may create a foundational shift within the global markets over the next 16 to 24+ months headed into the November 2020 US Elections.  We’ve already authored articles about how the prior 24 months headed into major US elections tend to be filled with price rotation while an initial downside price move is common within about 16+ months of a major US election event.  This year may turn out to prompt an even bigger price rotation.

US Stock Market volatility just spiked to levels well above 20 – levels not seen since October/November 2018, when the markets fell nearly 20% before the end of 2018.  The potential for increased price volatility over the next 12+ months seems rather high with all of the foreign positioning and expectations that are milling around.  It seems like the next 16+ months could be filled with incredibly high volatility, price rotation and opportunity for skilled traders.

Our primary concern is that the continued trade war between the US and China spills over into other global markets as a constricted price range based trading environment.  Most of the rest of the world is still trying to spark some increased levels of economic growth after the 2008-09 market crisis.  The current market environment does not settle well for investor confidence, growth, and future success.  The combination of a highly contested US Presidential election, US/China trade issues, a struggling general foreign market, currency fluctuations attempting to mitigate capital risks and other issues, it seems the global stock markets are poised for a very big increase in volatility and price rotation over the next 2 years or so.

Our first focus is on the Hang Seng Index.  This Weekly chart shows just how dramatic the current price rotation has been over the past few weeks and how a defined price channel could be setting up in the HSI to prompt a much larger downside objective.  Should continue trade issues persist and should China, through the course of negotiating with the US, expose any element of risk perceived by the rest of the world, the potential for further price contraction is very real.  China is walking a very fine line right now as Trump is pushing issues (trade issues and IP/Technology issues) to the forefront of the trade negotiations.  In our opinion, the very last thing China wants is their dirty laundry, shady deals and political leadership strewn across the global news cycles over the next 24+ months.

 

The DAX Weekly Index is showing a similar price pattern.  A very clear upper price trend channel which translates into a very clear downside price objective is price continues lower.  Although the DAX is not related directly to the US/China trade negotiations, the global markets are far more interconnected now than ever before.  Any rotation lower in China will likely result in a moderate price decrease in many of the major global market indexes.

 

As we’ve suggested within our earlier research posts, US election cycles tend to prompt massive price rotations when the election cycles are intense. In our next post PART II of this report, we talk about what happened in the past election cycles reviewing the monthly charts and weekly SP500 index charts which are very telling in what could be about to happen next for the stock market from an investors standpoint.

For active swing traders, you are going to love our daily trading analysis. On May 1st we talked about the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” and that is excactly what is happening now right on queue. In fact, we closed out our SDS position on Thursday for a quick 3.9% profit and our other new trade started Thursday is up 18% already.

Second, my birthday is only three days away and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.

Right now I am going to give away and shipping out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. I only have 7 left as they are going fast so be sure to upgrade your membership to a longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans, and you will receive:

1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)

2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)

I only have 13 more silver rounds I’m giving away
so upgrade or join now before its too late!

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!

Happy May Everyone!

Chris Vermeulen

 

 

Stay tuned for PART II next!

 

US Increases Trade Tariffs Against China – Markets, Gold, and Silver

Today, the US increased tariffs on $200B of Chinese goods as the US/China trade deal breaks down.  China has vowed to retaliate for the move.  The past week has seen the global markets shocked by two items: Iran sanctions and US/China trade breakdown.  The markets had been expecting a US/China trade deal to be reached and optimism was quite high – hence the rally in the Chinese stock market and the rally in the US stock market.  What next?

Well, we believe this news, as well as future news that will likely hit the markets over the next 3+ months, will continue to prompt the Shake-Out we have been warning about.  Depending on how severe these news events are, the rotation in the markets could be quite severe as well.

Our recent analysis suggests that recent lows in the US stock market may be near-term support and that the US stock market may attempt to form a bottom near these lows.  Our research shows the Transportation Index is leading this move.  We believe the ORANGE Moving Average level, as well as the RED and GREY Fibonacci projection points, will act as a temporary price floor this week and next.  The YM could move lower by 100 to 200 points today, retesting these low levels, before recovering near the end of the day.

 

Gold is showing signs of a potential upside price leg in the early stages, just as we had been suggesting.  Our April 21~24 momentum base call from months ago appears to be incredibly accurate.  At this point, we are just waiting for the upside price swing to begin.  When it starts, the momentum behind this upside move will increase as it will catch the attention of many gold traders and solidify the “fear” aspect of this move.

 

Silver is still lagging behind Gold – as usual.  We continue to believe the real opportunity for a great trade lies in Silver.  The potential for a $22 o ~$28 upside price swing on a market breakdown or fear play is still very solid.  Headed into the 2020 US election cycle and with all the uncertainty in the global markets, we believe this is the “sleeper trade” of the next 16+ months.  When Gold begins to breakout to the upside, Silver should follow about 20 days later.

 

These new US trade tariffs puts pressure on China to come to the table and develop and honest deal.  This is not the old way of slow negotiations with no real consequences.  For China, the lack of access to the US market could be devastating in both the short and long run.  Skilled traders should not be overly optimistic throughout this weekend.  Protect your longs and prepare for more news over the next few weeks.  This is the type of market that will make or break many traders.

UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY ONLY IN MAY

On May 1st we talked about the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” and that is excactly what is happening now right on queue. In fact, we closed out our SDS position on Thursday for a quick 3.9% profit and our other new trade started Thursday is up 18% already.

Second, my birthday is only a few days away and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.

Right now I am going to give away and shipping out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. I only have 11 left as they are going fast so be sure to upgrade your membership to a longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans, and you will receive:

1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)

2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)

I only have 13 more silver rounds I’m giving away
so upgrade or join now before its too late!

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!

Happy May Everyone!

Chris Vermeulen

US/China Trade Issues Create SHOCKWAVE Around The Globe

Unless you were following our research, see below, and were already aware of the many warning signs we’ve been posting in our continued efforts to help traders and to help educate skilled investors, you were probably caught completely off guard by the news of near trade tariffs last Sunday, May 5th.  Let’s face it, the short position in the VIX was an indication that institutional and retail investors had gone “all in” on this rally and had failed to even consider anything disrupting the narrow range price rally that had been in place over the past 45+ days.  Well, all of that changed on Sunday night and many traders woke up Monday morning to the INDU down nearly -500 points.

The most incredible facet of this rotation was that the markets had already discounted the trade tariff news and began to rally almost immediately after the opening bell on Monday.  Sure, we are not out of the woods at this time with the potential for continued price volatility and price rotation, but the fact that the US stock market was capable of rallying back from a very deep opening price shows just how resilient the US stock market and the economy really are.  The issue this time, we feel, will be felt in the global market and in foreign currency rates. We’ll get into that more as we continue.

In case you missed our most recent research posts, we suggest you take a few minutes to review the following posts to bring you up to speed with our analysis/research.  Reviewing these posts may help you to better understand the rest of this article and our expectations for the next 60 to 90 days.

 

March 31, 2019: Proprietary Cycles Predict July Turning Point for Stock Market
https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/proprietary-cycles-predict-july-turning-point-for-stock-market/

 

April 10, 2019: Intra-Day Fibonacci Modeling Shows Volatility Is About To Spike
https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/intra-day-fibonacci-modeling-shows-volatility-is-about-to-spike/

 

April 17, 2019: US Stock Markets Setting Up For Increased Volatility
https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/us-stock-markets-setting-up-for-increased-volatility/

 

April 22, 2019: Prepare For Unknown Price Action As New Highs Are Reached
https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/prepare-for-unknown-price-action-as-new-highs-are-reached/

 

April 28, 2019: Markets Are Setting Up a SHAKE-OUT – Be Prepared
https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/markets-are-setting-up-a-shake-out-be-prepared/

 

Now that we’ve covered a bit of our past research, allow me to attempt to summarize things a bit.

_ First, we continue to expect new high prices to be established over the next 30+ days.  Yes, volatility will be larger than it was 30 days ago, but we believe the “Shake-out” is just starting and we believe the US stock market will continue to push higher – at least for the next 3+ weeks.

_ Second, we are very cautious of the July/August 2019 Cycle Predictions, see above.  We believe these cycles could be a warning of a major price trend change that prompts some type of “dynamic shift” in the global markets.  Right now, it appears a “Shake-out” in China/Asia may be in play.  But we believe a bigger “Shake-out” may be brewing somewhere else in the world.

_ Lastly, we believe any top formation in the US Stock market will result in a Pennant/Flag formation, rotational top formation, that will give traders ample time to reposition their trades and reduce risks.

Just a few days ago, we posted this research to help traders understand just how close the markets are to topping and what to expect – see below.  We continue to believe this “Shake-out” is more about disrupting low volatility expectations and less about a major market top in the US stock market

 

April 30: How Close Are The Markets From Topping?
https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/how-close-are-the-markets-from-topping/

 

The Chinese stock markets will likely continue to drop as new expectations are suddenly realized and trade issues, especially IP and future IP partnerships, become a major contention moving forward.  Every step China takes, right now, is very fragile in terms of US expectations and the ability to show the world China is willing to become a responsible player in the technology field.  If China fails to realize this, the world will clearly see that China’s intention is to take as much as they can from global technology leaders while stuffing their pockets full of foreign cash – it will not end well.

The Shockwave that has just started to unfold across the global stock market/financial world is that trade, economic expectations, and currency valuations will continue to “revalue” to address these ongoing concerns until some formal resolution works itself into place.  In the meantime, any new issues that become present could further complicate these “revaluation” efforts.  The concert just started, folks.  We have a long way to go before this is all over with.

This Weekly YM chart showing our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting we have a “long way to go” before we could consider any downside price rotation a major risk.  The recent price highs in this YM chart have prompted a Bearish Fibonacci Trigger Price near the December 2018 lows (see the RED line near the $21,450 level).  You might be asking, “why so low?”.  This “learning modeling system” attempts to learn from price and attempts to identify where key price levels are that MUST be reached for a confirmed trend change.  As price has continued to rotate within a very wide range over the past 7+ months, the Fibonacci modeling system is suggesting that price could fall all the way back to near the December lows WITHOUT triggering a new “long term” bearish price trend.

In other words, the current price range that would constitute “normal price volatility” is anywhere between $21,450 and $26,950.  When we said to expect increased volatility, we really meant it.  This is a $5,500 range in the YM that could become a “normal volatility zone”.

 

The NQ Weekly chart, on the other hand, is providing us a much clearer Bearish Fibonacci Trigger level, near $7,393.  Once the price is able to close below this level, then we would consider the NQ entering a new Bearish trend as long as price stays below the $7,393 level.  If it was to rally back above this level, then the trigger is negated as long as it stays above the trigger level.

Pay very close attention to the YELLOW price channels that originate back in early 2018.  Those levels are likely to play a very important role in going forward as price attempts to establish new price ranges/channels throughout this expected price rotation and volatility.

 

Lastly, we’ve been warning that the Financial Sector could come under some intense pressures over the next 5 to 16+ months as all of this “Shockwave” plays out.  The reason we believe the Financial sector is vulnerable to this crazy volatility is that the exposure to multiple levels of capital risk could complicate the long-term earnings capabilities of this sector.  Almost all of these firms are involved in Personal, Corporate/Business, Real Estate, Trade, Global financing, Currency, and Bond related business ventures.  These firms are not remotely immune to any “Shockwave” – they are located right in the Bullseye/Target zone.

We believe the XLF may come under increased pressure over the next 3~6+ weeks as the Shockwave event continues to unfold.  We believe issues with Personal/Consumer credit will be the first sign of a Shockwave event and further pressures from Corporate/Business/Global/Currencies would likely be the second shoe to drop over the next 8+ months.  We believe a rotation in the XLF to near $25 is very likely over the next 3~6 months and that this move could be the result of extended risk factors originating from the “Shockwave event” we’ve been suggesting is currently unfolding.

Skilled traders should be watching technology stocks, the NASDAQ, the INDU, the Financial Sector and commodity prices over the next 4+ months for any signs that the Shockwave event is increasing in amplitude.  Additionally, pay very close attention to how currencies are moving and where the US Dollar is moving in relation to other currencies.  Gold and Silver should also be on your radar over the next few months as well.  Lastly, prepare for the major cycle event in July/August 2019.

The past four tradings sessions with volatility has kept us busy check out our most recent index trades on the SP500

 

Our advice continues to be to look for opportunities as the volatility increases and continue to expect an upside price bias in the US stock market – at least until we have any strong evidence that price trend has changed.  Don’t buy into the doom-sayers just yet.  In our opinion, this US upside price move is not over yet.

If you want to become a technical trader and pull money from the markets during times when most others cannot be sure to join the Wealth Trading Newsletter today. Plus, for a few days only I’m giving away and shipping Free Silver Rounds to subscribers who join our select membership levels.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com