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Palladium Sets Up Another Double Top Pattern

Is this Double-Top setup in Palladium another warning of a potential downside price move?  Back in April 2018, we issued a Double-Top pattern warning in Palladium which preceded a downside price move of nearly 28%.  We believe this new Double-Top pattern may prompt a downside price move of nearly 20% – targeting the $1240 level.

April 18, 2018: PALLADIUM RALLY DRIVING OTHER METALS TO MOVE?

This Weekly Palladium chart highlights the YELLOW Double-Top pattern formation that we believe may prompt a new downside price move.  Our expectations are that any new price weakness in Palladium will push prices down to the BLUE Fibonacci projected target level near $1240.  Additionally, should price break through the $1240 level, the next target levels are $1000 and $1060.

Palladium is a component that is related to industrial output and economic output for many industries; Automotive, Technology, Medical Devices and Equipment, and many others.  A decrease in demand for Palladium would indicate a decreased demand for a broad swath of global industry leaders.

This would likely result in a decreasing or weakening global economic outlook and, potentially, be an early warning sign that the global stock markets are about to enter a period of extended price weakness.

Pay very close attention to the $1450 to $1475 level in Palladium.  These levels are the most recent support levels from previous triggers.  Price weakness below these levels would be a strong indication that Palladium may continue to move lower targeting the $1240 level or lower.

Look at my trend analysis chart for Palladium. Yes, it is in an uptrend but as of the last trading session it is now trading at an extreme overbought level which typically means sellers should step into the market at any time.

See my current trend and trade signals for the SP500 index here.

Now is the time to plan and prepare for these incredible price swings in the global markets.  The next 18-24 months are certain to present technical traders with countless opportunities for success with these bigger price moves.

Our recent calls in the markets have resulted in over 42% in total gains over the past 60 days.  Isn’t it time you learned how www.TheTechnicalTraders.com can help you find and time better trades?

Become a Technical Trader and Profit with Us

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

Crude Oil Pummeled, Where Is It Going Next?

On Tuesday, July 2, 2019, the price of Crude Oil fell over -4.5% on continued expectations of global economic weakness and supply gluts.  We found this interview rather interesting because it attempts to suggest a narrative that ignores Iranian issues while pushing the supply side fundamental for the current price decline (Source: CNBC).

Back on May 21, 2019, we shared a post that is still very relevant today.  The same price pattern is still in place and the same type of price action is working through the completion of an extended Pennant/Flag formation. We suggest all our follower read this May 21 post to catch up to current market levels.

May 21, 2019, Technical Analysis Post:
GLOBAL ECONOMIC TENSIONS TRANSLATE INTO OIL VOLATILITY

Our researchers believe the technical reason why Crude Oil will continue lower is that price rotation has continued to support a downside price trend (Bearish) and that recent price resistance near the upper price channel has been rejected.  This is a near perfect example of how the Fibonacci price theory works in real markets.  The price must always attempt to establish “new price highs” or “new price lows” AT ALL TIMES.

After the deep price bottom in December 2018 near $42.50, oil price began an upside price move reaching just above our $66 target in late April 2019.  Since then, another downside price move, which we called in our May 21 article, has driven oil prices to the $50.60 level. The current upside price move has recently retested the $60 resistance level and has pulled back to where we are today around $56 per barrel.

The price rejection and subsequent collapse in price on July 2 represents a clear rotation from the $60 price level.  This failure to achieve a “higher high” price level ($60 is lower than the previous peak near $66) is a very clear indication that price MUST move lower in an attempt to establish a new “lower low” – near or below $50.60.  This is how the Fibonacci price theory works.

We believe the last level of support for Oil is currently near $54.50. If this level is breached, we should see a very clear and quick price move lower targeting the $50.60 to $52.50 level where historical support resides.  If that level fails, then a move to deeper historical support, near $42 if very likely.

Everything hinges on what Oil will do near the $54.50 level as the price continues to push lower from the recent peak near $60.  Technical traders should be prepared for a bit of volatility over the next few days, but we believe the $54.50 level will be breached and that oil prices will continue to fall back towards the previous low price level near $50.60.  If price fails to find support there, it really has only one target left to reach – that is the $42 level.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In a previous article, we’ve shown you when the bottom was in for oil and stocks using our simple trade setup technique we use to identify entry and exit points for SP500 and Crude Oil  – the 100% Fibonacci Extension Move. Now a month later we are providing more insight about oils potential drop to $42 if support is broken.

If the price drops below $52 would also create selling pressure as the price will have fallen below the 200-period historical moving average level.  This technical condition would suggest price weakness to the masses and could result in additional selling pressure from traders exiting the oil market and potentially even short selling pressure.

Technical traders should have all eyes focused on the $54.50 price level right now.  That is the key price level for any future move in Crude Oil as it is oversold currently and near support. Either way, up or down, Crude Oil continues to be an incredible opportunity for skilled technical traders.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in crude oil, but real estate, metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these super cycles are even going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I urge you to visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

Part II – Are Real Estate ETF’s The Next Big Trade?

In part I of this research post, we highlighted how the shifting landscape of the US real estate market may be setting up an incredible trading opportunity for technical traders.  It is our belief that the continued capital shift which has been driving foreign investment into US assets, real estate, and other investments may be shifting away from US real estate as tell-tale signs of stress are starting to show.  Foreclosures and price drops are one of the first signs that stress exists in the markets and we believe the real estate segment could be setting up for an incredible trade opportunity.

SRS, the Proshares Ultrashort Real Estate EFT has recently completed a unique “washout low” price bottom that we believe may become an incredible trading opportunity for technical traders.  If the US Fed pushes the market into a panic mode, sellers will become even more desperate to offload their homes and buyers will become even more discerning in terms of selecting what and when to buy.

Our opinion is that the recent “washout low” price bottom in SRS is very likely to be a unique “scouting party” low/bottom that may set up a very big move to the upside over the next 4 to 12+ months.  If our research is correct, the continued forward navigation for the US Fed, global central banks and the average consumers buying and selling homes is about to become very volatile.

If SRS moves above the $25.50 level, our first upside Fibonacci price target and clears the $24.25 previous peak set in April 2019, it would be a very clear indication that a risk trade in Real Estate is back in play.  Ideally, price holding above the $21.65 level would provide a very clear level of support negating any future price weakness below $21.50.

This weekly SRS chart highlights what we believe to be the optimal BUY ZONE and the upside price targets near $28 to $29.  Since the bottom in 2009-10, after the credit market crisis, we have not seen any substantial risk in the Real Estate market for over 8+ years.  Now, though, it is our opinion that this risk trade is very real and that technical trader should be aware of this potential move and what it means to protect assets and wealth.

If our research proves to be accurate and any future move by the US Fed will prompt a “rush to the exits” by home sellers, then there is really only one course of action left for us to consider.  Either the Fed will reduce rates, buying some at-risk sellers a bit of time before a rush to sell overwhelms the markets and prices begin a fast decline in an attempt to secure quick buyers; or the Fed will leave rates at current levels where at-risk sellers will continue to attempt to offload their homes to any willing buyers before declining prices and panicked sellers start the “race to the bottom” in terms of pricing.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Real Estate has already run through the price advance cycle and the price maturity cycle.  There is really only one cycle left to unfold at this point – the “price revaluation cycle”.  This is where the opportunity lies with our suggested SRS trade setup.

We believe this bottom in SRS will result in a few more weeks of trading near price support (above $20 and below $22.50) where traders will be able to acquire their positions.  The bigger move will happen as risk becomes more evident – very similar to what has recently happened in Gold. Once that risk is visible to traders/investors, the upside potentials ($28+ to $42+) won’t seem so illogical any longer.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these super cycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I urge you to visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Are Real Estate ETF’s The Next Big Trade?

A subscriber recently mentioned getting into a real estate ETF so we started going over the data which may suggest the Real Estate sector could become the next big trade over the next 12+ months.  The news that the US Fed may decrease rates in an attempt to front-run global economic weakness and real estate market weakness may result in a waterfall event in local and regional real estate markets.  This type of event could become a fantastic trading opportunity for technical traders.

Recently we have been talking about the unit and very different opportunities in other physical assets like precious metals. Each metal is unique for market timing has its own personality. Our gold predictions are an eye-opener, why silver is awesome, and our most recent analysis on platinum is timely.

Overall, our research has been focused on one of the hottest markets anywhere in the US, California.  Los Angeles, Ventura County, Orange County, San Diego, and San Francisco make up the entire massive Southern California real estate market.  The California real estate market is a fairly strong indicator for weaker market segments because the number of transactions taking place across the 400+ miles spanning San Francisco to San Diego represent multiple trillions of dollars, vast segments of consumers and types of housing as well as an incredibly diverse economic landscape ranging from coastal regions, farming regions, cities, technology hubs, agriculture and dozens of others (source).

Our concern is that a rate decrease by the US Fed may be interpreted as a “move to attempt to abate fear” instead of a “move to support the markets”.  If this decrease in rates does happen and at-risk homeowners fear the Fed is trying to push buttons to adjust the consumer environment toward a “buying bias” and sellers become scared, then the race to sell faster (decreasing prices to attract buyers) may become the norm.  In other words, in an effort to support the markets, the Fed could take actions that remove the floor from the markets as sellers attempt to get the best price possible before buyers become aware of the “race to the bottom” in terms of pricing.

At-risk homeowners are under increasing pressures as pricing, income and other expenses seem to have wreaked havoc with what was a traditionally strong real estate market just three years ago.  It appears the Fed has raised rates just enough to start to show the cracks in the dam in Orange County and LA County, California.  The increasing number of blue dots, as well as the continue “price drops” in these areas, are a very clear sign that the “hot market” is now just “mildly warm and cooling fast”.  Prices are past the peak and are already starting to decline fairly rapidly.

Additionally, delinquency levels for commercial and industrial loans are starting to rise dramatically – much like what happened in 2007 – just months before the credit market crash in 2008.  Commercial and Industrial loan delinquencies rose sharply from 1.14 in Q2 2007 to 1.45 in Q1 2008 – eventually peaking at 447 in Q3 2009.  Currently, Delinquency levels are at 1.17 – up from 0.93 for Q4 2018.  If this trend continues past September, we could be looking at a very different real estate economic picture by the end of 2019 or early 2020 (Source).

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Our interpretation of the US housing market is that buyers are becoming more opportunistic as they are watching the markets and watching how sellers are dropping prices in an attempt to attract a sale.  Buyers have not seen this type of activity since early 2007-08 or so when sellers were getting desperate to get out of their homes near the top of the market.  At the same time, watching how sellers attempt to push their home into the hands of buyers creates a shifting dynamic in the Real Estate market.  All the sudden it went from a seller’s market and is now shifting into a buyers market.

The rates of delinquencies, consumer confidence, and levels of disposable income all factor into the market’s reactions to price and sales activity.  When buyers believe it is opportunistic to buy, they will move mountains to attempt to acquire a home or an asset.  When buyers believe it is not opportunistic to buy an asset, they will likely decide to wait for a more opportunistic time to make their purchase.

In part II of this article, we will share our research that highlights the incredible trade setup related to the Real Estate market and how technical traders can position their portfolios for this move.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these super cycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I urge you to visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Platinum Setting Up For A Big Price Anomaly

Our clients and followers have been following our incredible research and market calls regarding Gold and Silver with intense focus.  We issued a research post in October 2018 that suggested Gold would rocket higher from a base level below $1300 to an initial target near $1450 almost 9 months ago.

As of this week, Gold has reached a high of $1442.90 only $7.10 away from our predicted target level.  This has been an absolutely incredible move in Gold and we could not be more pleased with the outcome for our clients, followers, and anyone paying attention to our research posts.

Additionally, many of our clients have been asking us to share our predictive modeling research for Platinum, which has been basing near recent lows recently.  We decided to share our research with everyone regarding the information our proprietary predictive modeling tools are suggesting.

You can see from my precious metals comparison article which metal has the most upside potential looking going forward.

Also, be sure you read my exclusive Platinum prediction which is playing out exactly as expected thus far.

Todays Updated Platinum Analysis:
This first Platinum chart highlights our Fibonacci price modeling tool and provides some critical information we need to understand about Platinum right now.  The Volatility Zone, created by the range between the Bullish and Bearish Fibonacci Trigger Levels, is very large.  This is a very clear indication that implied volatility in Platinum is currently at levels near 26% of the current price.  To put that into perspective, an impulse move in Platinum could result in a $125 to $250 price breakout or breakdown, depending on price structure, before implied volatility may reduce back to normal levels.  Normal price volatility in Platinum is typically somewhere between 4.6% to 11.5%.

The next aspect of our research we want you to focus on is the rotation of the price peaks and troughs, highlighted by MAGENTA arcs we’ve drawn on this chart.  The rotation of price over the past 11+ months has been a very clear “higher price trend channel” where higher highs and higher lows have been forming.

This presents a very clear price picture for the current price levels, near the recent price lows ($765), are very likely to attempt a rally back towards levels that will attempt to set up another “new price high” – $925 or higher.  Although, we have to be very cautious of the extended volatility levels and the potential for a price breakdown into the BREAKDOWN ZONE (highlighted on the chart below).  Should price fail to attempt to move higher, then a very clear price breakdown will take, breaking the current trend channel and invalidating our bullish price predictions.

Currently, our researchers believe there is a very strong likelihood of an upside price move breaching the $818 level (highlighted by the WHITE LINE near the BLUE Fibonacci projection level) to begin the upside price move.  Once this level is breached, we would have technical confirmation that a key Fibonacci level has been tested, breached and a new upside price trend is beginning to form.  This would partially validate our upside price expectations and allow us to target a long objective near $865.

Obviously, technical traders would attempt to look for strategic entries below $805, if they present themselves.  The concept is to take advantage of the lowest risk trade entries the markets provide.  At the same time, there is plenty of room in the middle of this trade for decent profits as well.

This next chart shows our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system that maps out price bars, technical data, and comparative price data into a DNA chain for future reference.  In a way, this tool attempts to “infer knowledge” by digging deeper into the price and technical data than we can attempt to do visually – then project the expected price levels well into the future.

This ADL chart is presenting two very clear outcomes.  One with much higher prices and another with lower/stagnant pricing levels that tend to weaken over time.  This result is the output of two different, side-by-side, price bars and it shows how the ADL can highlight increased volatility and what we call a “price anomaly” pattern that is setting up.

Obviously, the current price is near these lower ADL predicted levels, thus we could assume the lower predicted levels may be more accurate.  Yet, both of the ADL bars predicted that price would move lower (below $840) throughout this time-span.  Where the ADL predictions diverge is THIS WEEK and into the future.  The analysis from April 29 is suggesting that the price of Platinum should be trading near $845 right now and will breakout to much higher levels (above $930) within the next 1 to 3+ weeks.  The analysis from May 6 is suggesting that the price of Platinum will languish near $760 to $800 for the next 5+ weeks while continuing to weaken.

This is the setup of a “Price Anomaly”.  Where price is actually “out of alignment” with one key element of the ADL predictive modeling system and setting up an incredible opportunity for skilled traders. We’ve learned that either one of two things will happen…  Either price WILL revert to much higher levels as suggested by the April 29 ADL prediction OR, the price will stall near recent lows as suggested by the May 6 ADL prediction.

As a skilled trader, our job is to understand where the opportunity lies within this ADL prediction and attempt to manage the risks.

As we stated earlier in this research post, the combination of the Fibonacci and ADL predictive modeling systems are suggesting a very clear action for traders – attempt to accumulate below $800 with the expectation that price may continue to consolidate near these levels for 3 to 10+ more days.  Eventually, as our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting, a breakout upside price move is likely to take place where the price will attempt to move dramatically higher – targeting $850 first, then possibly $935 or higher.  This is the “price anomaly reversion” trade that creates the opportunity for skilled traders.

The ADL predictive modeling system is great at suggesting where the price will attempt to target in the near future.  When it aligns with the current price, then we have some validation that price is acting normally.  When price moves against the suggestions of the ADL predictive modeling system, then we have a “price anomaly setup” and we typically wait for confirmation of the “trigger” to confirm this reversion will actually take place.  Our trigger is the WHITE LINE on the Fibonacci chart, above.  Once price closes above $818 to $820 on a fairly strong move, then we would have technical confirmation that price is attempting to establish “new price highs” and this should provide enough momentum to push the price anomaly reversion trade into a real opportunity for success.

I urge you visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these super cycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Silver Will Pause Before Going Higher

Silver will likely find resistance near $15.60 and move slightly lower before another upside price leg takes place.  Both gold and silver have begun incredible price rallies over the past 10+ days and we believe this is just the start of a much bigger price trend.

We believe Silver, to be one of the absolute best potential trades and investment. It will likely pause just below $15.75, near the First Resistance level, rotate a bit lower (possibly towards $15.15), then attempt another rally towards the $16.50 level.

Daily Silver Chart Analysis

The $15.60 to $15.75 resistance level can be seen on this chart by our RED highlighted price peaks. Additionally, the upper RESISTANCE ZONE between $16.15 and $16.78 is a big range that has historically been a key price channel.

My cycle and trend trading indicators are suggesting this move is far from over, yet we believe this move upward will happen in advancement legs and this first leg is nearing exhaustion.  This is why we are issuing this warning to all investors right now.  We believe a downward price rotation, a stalling price pattern, will set up where a technical trader will be able to acquire silver below $15.25 again very soon.  The next leg higher may start fairly quickly as we don’t expect this rotation to extend out for many weeks.

See Our Previous Silver Breakout Prediction Call on June 7th

Monthly Silver Chart

This Monthly Silver chart with our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system suggests upside targets of $17.00 (CYAN), $17.65 (GREEN), and $18.50 (DARK RED).  Our RESISTANCE ZONE level on the chart, above, aligns perfectly with these objectives because the price would first have to rally into the RESISTANCE ZONE and break through this level to push to any higher target levels.

Therefore, we believe this upside price move won’t run into any solid resistance until reaching above the $16.30 level and possibly as high as the $16.75 to $17.00 level.  At that point, the price of Silver should find real resistance, stall, and set up for the next breakout move higher.

At this point, if you have not been following our research and analysis of the precious metals sector and already positioned your trades for this move, you should get another chance to set up some long trades as this downside price rotation takes place.  Remember, wait for silver to fall close to or below $15.25 before targeting your new trade entry.  This bottom in silver may only last for a few short trading periods, so when it happens, be ready with your orders.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

The next upside leg in Silver should rally for a total of about +6% to +10% targeting the $16.25 to $17.00 price level – the RESISTANCE ZONE.  After that price level is reached and price consolidates to likely form another momentum base, another upside price leg should push the price of Silver towards our Monthly Fibonacci price targets – somewhere towards $18.00 to $18.50 before stalling again. !

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these super cycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I urge you visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Investors are confident, bullish and buying stocks, but…

The Technical Traders Ltd has identified a unique price to volatility relationship between the SP500 and VIX index.  The calculations required to compute the VIX index are composed of a number of factors. That final value of the VIX index is reported on an annualized basis. This means that VIX index as already internalized the past 12 months price volatility into the current VIX levels.

We believe this increased VIX volatility expectation could be muting future VIX spikes and trading systems focus on the VIX Index.  The fact that the VIX as likely to internalized that large October to December 2018 price rotation and will not move beyond this price range until well after April or May of 2020 creates a unique problem for VIX systems and analysts. In short, the VIX has normalized a 20% price volatility expectation, or more, and will not reduce this expectation until well after April or May of 2020.

Taking a look at this weekly VIX chart clearly highlights the large 472% increase in January and February 2018.  The reason why the VIX increased by this incredible amount is that the prior 12 months price volatility was extremely muted.  The price rotation in the SPX was -343, for a total of -12%. The second VIX Spike between October and December of 2018 resulted in a 227% increase while price rotated more than 600 points, -20.61%, in the SPX. Obviously, the larger price movement in October through December 2018 would have likely resulted in a large VIX move if prior volatility expectations had remained the same.

It is our belief that the January to February 2018 price volatility rotation increase the VIX volatility expectations by at least 30 to 40%. The second, much larger, price rotation during October to December 2018 pushed the VIX volatility expectations higher by at least 10 to 15%. Our researchers believe the normalized VIX levels representing current price volatility are likely to stay above 12 or 13 until well after November or December 2019 if price volatility and expectations stay rather muted. Any additional large price rotations, to the downside, will likely continue to normalize or internalize increased VIX level volatility expectations.

This SPX chart helps to compare the relative VIX price increases in relation to the true SPX price volatility. We’ve also drawn a 12-month price window, as a red box on this chart, to highlight how the VIX attempts to normalize the past 12 months volatility going forward. It is our belief that a move above 500 to 600 points in the SPX may only prompt a rally in the VIX to near 28 to 30. Whereas, the same price swing from October to December 2018 prompted a VIX move to about 36. We would need to see the SPX move at least 900 points before the VIX will spike above 25 again.  Remember after January or February of 2020 the VIX may begin to contract again as price volatility stays muted for the rest of this year.

We currently believe a large price rotation may be set up for near the end of 2019. Our proprietary cycle modeling systems and extended research are suggesting this downside move may begin sometime near August or September of 2019. Remember, this new VIX research suggests that any large price downswing may result in a very moderate VIX price increase at first. In other words, things could get very interesting towards the end of 2019 for traders.

Please take a minute to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com and see how we have been navigating, trading and profiting from the market over the past 17 months, I think you will be pleasantly surprised. Our research team believes the US stock market will likely form an extended pennant formation over the next 60+ days.  Now is the time for us to plan and prepare for what may become a very volatile second half of 2019 and early 2020.

Become A Technical Trader Today Using
Our Trade and Investing Signals
CLICK HERE

Chris Vermeulen

Technical Analysis Shows Aug/Sept Market Top Pattern Should Form

We have been pouring over the data and currently believe our earlier prediction of a July/August 2019 market top should be revised to an Aug/Sept 2019 expected market top pattern.  The following research posts we authored recently suggested a top may form in July/Aug 2019 and believe this critical top formation would form at new all-time highs.  We still believe this is possible regarding the price predictions, yet we believe the price top will now form near the end of August or early September after an extended Pennant/Flag formation is completed.

Please review the following research posts by our team…

June 5, 2019: Fear Drives market Expectations: HERE

May 14, 2019: Trade Issues Will Drive Market Trends, Part II: HERE

March 31, 2019: Proprietary Cycles Predict July Turning Point For Stock Market: HERE

Using our proprietary price modeling tools and systems, believe the critical price peak in the US stock market will now happen between August 26 and September 20 (see the chart below).  A number of key factors are lining up to extend this topping pattern into August/September and the key component is the formation of the Pennant/Flag formation and the fact that this price pattern must complete before a breakout/breakdown move is possible.

An upside price bias will continue throughout the formation of the Pennant/Flag formation leading to a moderate price breakout where the S&P will briefly break through the $3000 price level, then stall – forming the Top pattern/rotation we are expecting.

A continued Capital Shift will drive prices higher over the next 45 to 60+ days where foreign capital will continue to chase the strong US Dollar and the strength of the US stock market.  The true critical price move, where our analysis will become even more important, happens after September 1, 2019 – where the Pennant Apex and a critical inflection point are set.

On June 5, 2019, we posted this VIX chart in the article listed above.  The US stock market will rotate higher in an upward price bias over the next 45+ days.  This will project the Pennant/Flag formation and set up the critical top pattern that we are expecting in late August or early September.  When you look at this chart of the VIX, below, consider that the upside price move in the VIX may be delayed by about 10 to 15 days based on our newest analysis.  We still believe the VIX expansion will happen as we are suggesting, we are altering the timeline of these predictions to support our newest research.

As we move closer to these critical dates, we’ll keep you informed of our expectations and what new information our predictive modeling systems are suggesting.  In the meantime, get ready to play some moderate price swings.  Don’t get caught on the short side of this move just yet.  We have no real confirmation that a large downside move will take place over the next 60+ days and these early shorts are going to feel a lot of pressure over the next 45 to 60+ days if the market moves higher.

This is one scenario of how the stock market may play out, we have a few others we are following with subscribers to our Wealth Building Newsletter with much more detail. Each day we share a pre-market video and show you where all the major markets are headed for the day, week and month ahead. The analysis is done on the futures market but we focus on trading ETFs for the indexes and commodities.

In fact, there are several super cycles starting to take place as we head into 2020 and beyond which Brad Matheny and layout in our new book: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Could Gold Rally Above $3750 Before December 2019?

We asked our researchers a question recently, “Could Gold rally above $3750 before the end of 2019?”.  We wanted to see what type of research they would bring to the table that could support a move like this of nearly 200% from current levels.  We wanted to hear what they thought it would take for a move like this to happen and if they could support their conclusions with factual conjecture.

Now we ask you to review these findings and ask yourself the same question.  What would it take for Gold to rally above $3750 (over 200% from current levels) and why do you believe it is possible?

Our research team came to two primary conclusions in support of a Gold price move above $3750 :

A)   The US Presidential election cycle/political environment could prompt a vicious global economic contraction cycle of fear and protectionist consumer and corporate activity that propels the global economy into a deflationary (mini-crisis) event.

B)   The global trade wars could complicated item A (the US Presidential election cycle) and create an accelerating component to this global political event.  The result is the mini-crisis could turn into “
a bit more” than a mini-crisis if the global trade wars prompt further economic contraction and disrupt global economic activities further.

Our research team suggested the following as key elements to watch out for in terms of “setting up the perfect storm” in the global markets.

A)  The US Dollar falls below $94 and continues to push a bit lower.  This would show signs that the US Dollar is losing strength around the world

B)  The Transportation Index falls below $4350 and begins a bigger breakdown in price trend – targeting the $3000 level.  This would indicate that global trade and transportation is collapsing back to 2007-08 levels.

C)  Oil collapses below $45 would be a certain sign that global Oil demand has completely collapsed and the sub-$40 level would very quickly come into perspective as a target.

D)  Global Financial stability is threatened by Debt/Credit issues while any of the above are taking place.  Should any of the A, B or C items begin to take form over the next few weeks or months while some type of extended debt or credit crisis event is unfolding, it would add a tremendous increase of fear into the metals markets.

Our researchers believe the US Dollar is safe above the $91 level throughout the end of 2019 and that any downside risk to the US Dollar would come in brief price rotations as deflationary aspects of the global economy are identified. In other words, at this time, we don’t believe the US Dollar will come under any severe downside pricing pressures throughout the end of 2019.  We do believe a downside price move in the US Dollar may be setting up between now and early July 2019, but we strongly believe the $91 to $93 level is strong support for the long term.

The Gold Spot price / the US Dollar price chart highlights the incredible upside price move in Gold after 2001-02.  It was almost a perfect storm of events that took place after this time to prompt a move like this to the upside.  Not only did we have multiple US based economic crisis events, we also had a series of global economic “shifts” taking place where capital and assets were migrating all across the globe searching for superior returns.  Could this happen again??  Of course it could.  Although, we believe the next move in precious metals will be met with a completely different set of circumstances – very likely targeting foreign nations and not the US economy.

This SPDR GLD chart shows a moderately safer play for investors and traders.  The potential for a 20%+ upside price move over the next 60+ days is quite likely and our belief is that traders should be able to trade GLD throughout many of the upside and downside price rotations over the next few weeks and months.  Ultimately, if you are skilled enough to pick proper entries, a decent trader could focus on GLD and pick up 65% to 120% ROI over a 7 to 12 month span of time.

Our Last Gold Forecast From October 2018 Unfolding Perfectly

Pay attention to where the opportunities are for your level of skill and capital.  As we’ve been saying for many months, 2019 and 2020 will be fantastic years for active traders.  Stick with what you can execute and trade well because there will be dozens of trades available to most traders over the next 16+ months.

Overall, our research team believes that precious metals have just begun to move higher on a WAVE C impulse move.  We authored a research post suggesting that Gold and Silver were currently 20 to 30% undervalued back in late May 2019.  The current upside move in Gold and Silver may be just the beginning of a much bigger move.

Ideally, we believe this initial impulse move will end above $1650.  From these current levels, that reflects a 25% to 30% upside move in GLD.  If any of the fear-inducing items, listed above, begin to take shape over the next 12+ months, we could certainly see Gold above $2100 before too long.  $3750 may seem like “shooting for the stars”, but all it takes is a combination of fear and deflation/inflation to drive investors into a gold-hoarding mode just like we saw after 2003-2004 – and that move prompted a 500% price rally from the $300 base level. That same move today would put the current price of Gold near $7800.  It might seem like it could never happen – but it could.

Bottom line, we forecast the markets and share some extreme analysis like this to open your eyes to some potential opportunities. But, you cannot just jump into gold or miners after reading this and think you are set for success. The markets are never that simple. You must actively adjust and trade with the market and our daily video analysis is what will keep you on the right side of the market more times than not. This week, we locked in some profits on our long gold ETF, and gold miners ETF, why? because our analysis says both of these are at resistance and could pullback before heading higher. We don’t buy, hope and hold, we enter positions, lock-in profits, rinse, and repeat over and over again.

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Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com