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Bitcoin Price Collapse Continue For Many Months

The recent price collapse in Bitcoin may be the start of a much bigger price trend in the Cryptos.  The support level near $9000 has been breached and the current resistance arc, see the MAGENTA Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs on these charts, are clearly acting as a major contracting price resistance level.  Our research suggests price will find support near $7900, then $5571, then possibly just above $2000. But first, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter

The Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs are a proprietary modeling tool we use to measure and track how price may react based on previous price swings.  They are the visual deployment of two unique theories;  Fibonacci price theory and Tesla’s Mechanical Resonance theory.  The basis behind our thinking when we created this proprietary tool was that Fibonacci price theory suggests that all price movement is related and structured to previous price movements and that Tesla’s theory that everything we touch, see and know to exist is the result of ENERGY suggested to us that ENERGY may be one of the most important components in understanding price movement.

Energy is typically measured in Volts and Amps.  We adopted a different approach to this thinking, we used Sound structures and energy as the basis for our proprietary analysis: attack, intensity, decay, sustainability, amplitude, and frequency, as well as pressure and velocity.

“In Physics, sound energy is a form of energy.  Sound is a mechanical wave and as such consists physically in oscillatory elastic compression and in oscillatory displacement of fluid.  Therefore, the medium acts as a storage for both potential and kinetic energy.”

source : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sound_energy

Imagine trying to unlock the concept that Time and Price are a fluid environment where energy (price movement over time) creates a lasting and dynamic method of storing energy, displacing energy and developing kinetic energy that could interact and displace future price trends, rotations, swings?

How in the world would you attempt to identify or study these types of price energy waves to attempt to develop a system of successfully using these tools for trading and analysis?

You do exactly what we did – you try to apply your best researchers to the task and attempt to validate your research across various platforms, symbols, and sets of data.

With more than 54 years of experience in the markets and have studied almost all types of price theory, technical analysis, and other types of market price, technical, and fundamental analysis techniques.  We put our skills to the test every day in order to find and execute the best trades. If you want to see more of our trading indicators and tools click here.

BITCOIN FIBONACCI PRICE AMPLITUDE ARCS

These Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs, as we call them, are what we believe to be the hidden price energy wave that exists behind the linear constructs of the charts we are used to seeing.  They work by creating breakouts and channels that price must react to.  In this case, the Magenta price arc is acting as a contracting ceiling for the price (resistance) and price should continue to stay below the MAGENTA price arc until it reaches a point where enough energy exists to break through that arc.

WEEKLY BITCOIN CHART

This Weekly Bitcoin chart provides a better example of how our proprietary Fibonacci Price Amplitude arcs are deployed.  In this example, we can clearly see the bottom that formed in late 2018 and the peak that formed in late June 2019.  We can see two HEAVY Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs: one MAGENTA and the other one GREEN.  These are what we believe are the major amplitude arc levels.  The others are minor levels.

Each peak or valley on this chart sets up a new Price Amplitude energy pattern.  Some are more relevant than others in term of how price will react to them.  All of them are important to understand and to help us relate to how price may move in the future, yet we try to stick with the most important Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs when we share charts with our readers.  You’ve probably seen some of our other research charts with lots of arcs and lines drawn all over them – those are part of our research team’s work to dig into the hidden energy layer that exists behind price activity on every chart.

This Weekly Bitcoin chart suggests that price will continue to attempt to test various support levels while staying within the Magenta price arc.  We believe the $5571 level is the likely target at this time.

Don’t chase this move lower in Cryptos.  Wait for the bottom to setup and form before looking for the next move higher.  If price breaks below $5571, then we could see a target level near $2100 very quickly.  If price is unable to generate enough energy to break the Magenta price arc, time will eventually push price into the next arc series where a broader price range/rotation may be in the future.

5 OTHER CRUCIAL WARNING SIGNS ABOUT THE US MARKETS TOPPING AND THE GOLD AND SILVER BULL MARKET

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where stocks are headed along with precious metals for the next 8-24 months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Chris Vermeulen on Gold, Silver, Miners, Crude Oil, Bonds, and Bitcoin.


As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I have had a series of great trades this month. In fact, over the past 20 months, my trading newsletter portfolio has generated over 100% return when compounded for members and most importantly we did this with very little portfolio risk. And we locking in more profits on Tuesday with the Russell 2000 index. So, if you believe in technical analysis, then this is the newsletter and market condition for you to really shine.

Be prepared for these price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH SUBSCRIPTION – OFFER ENDS SOON!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

PART II – Fed Too Late To Prevent A Housing Market Crash?

In Part I of this research, we highlighted the Case-Shiller index of home affordability and how it relates to the US real estate market and consumer economic activity going forward.  We warned that once consumers start to shift away from an optimistic view of the economy, they typically shift into a protectionist stance where they attempt to protect wealth, assets and risk of loss while attempting to weather the economic storm.

We’ve seen this happen in 2008-09 as well as after the 9/11 attacks in the US in 2001.  The process is always somewhat similar.  Consumers start to react to pricing levels that are unaffordable and do so by trying to skimp on extraneous purchases like travel, new cars, credit card debt or other items that are not essential.  The other thing that happens is that the lower tier borrowers (the “at-risk borrowers”) typically begin to become delinquent on debts and fall behind on their mortgage payments.  This is how the process starts.

Once it starts, a shift takes place in the market that can be sudden or it can be transitional.  The shift is often termed as a change from a “Seller’s Market” to a “Buyer’s Market”.  This terminology is used to describe who is in control of the transaction and who has the advantage within the transaction.  When it is a “Seller’s Market”, buyers are typically offering to pay MORE for an item/home and the seller does not have to stress about trying to sell their property/items.  When it is a “Buyer’s Market”, the buyer is able to negotiate with the seller, demanding more concessions, lower prices, better deals and often has a wide variety of sellers wanting to court the buyer away from other property/items.  See how this shift in market dynamics can really change the way a marketplace works.

Now, lets take a look at how the US consumer is doing, overall, and how it might reflect a change in the marketplace if certain fundamental change.

This chart of the delinquency rates for All Loans and Leases in the US shows an increase in the levels of delinquencies starting near the 2016 year.  This aligns with the year that the US Fed began raising the Fed Funds Rate and is exactly 1 year after the Chinese initiated capital controls to attempt to prevent local currency (Chinese Yuan) from leaving the country and landing in other countries as foreign assets.  In 2015, the delinquency rate for All Loans and Leases was near 2004~05 levels (below  30,000).  Right now, the level is above the 2008 level near 36,000.

Consumer Credit Card Delinquencies are rising sharply.  Since 2016, the increase in sub-prime credit card delinquencies has skyrocketed above the peak levels of 2008-09 and continues to stay above 5.5%.

Meanwhile, those nasty Mortgage Backed Securities held outright are still massively higher than in 2008/09 based on this Fred data.  We are unsure why the data is reported as ZERO in 2008, but we can safely assume that a $1.55 Trillion risk factor in these MBS levels is not something that we would consider a minor risk factor.

Now, in the first part of this article, we promised to show you some data from our proprietary Fed modeling utility and to show you what we use to determine if the US Fed is ahead of the curve or behind it.  Here you go..

Our original research model of the US economy and the Fed Rate levels into the future are shown below.  You can see that our model suggests the US Fed, as of 2013, should have been raising rates towards the 1.5% level then gradually raising them further towards 2.0% to 2.25% before 2017.  This type of increase would have slowed the advance of the real estate price levels and moderated the expansion of the debt levels that are currently associated within this sector.  Instead, the US Fed was late in their efforts to raise rates – starting only in late 2016.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Based on our model, current rates should be dropping toward levels near 1.25% to 1.75% as US debt, GDP and population levels continue to increase.  In the 4 years after the 2020 election, rates should stay below 2% as the US Fed is somewhat trapped until GDP increases dramatically.  Our modeling system suggests there are only two ways the US Fed can attempt to raise rates above 2.5% in the future; a. the US GDP increases dramatically (increasing to levels more than 1.5x total US debt annually), or b. US debt is dramatically reduced while GDP continues to grow at moderate rates.

In the last part of this 3 part article series, we’ll show you more data that will allow you to prepare for the future events that may unfold and show you how to watch for some of these trigger events yourself.

If you are like me and have friends who know nothing about real estate like cops and techie programmers building spec homes and thinking its easy money, then you know the market is or has already topped. In fact, take a look at home sales month over month in Canada.

House Values Declining Month Over Month

Real Estate has already run through the price advance cycle and the price maturity cycle.  There is really only one cycle left to unfold at this point which is the “price revaluation cycle”.  This is where the opportunity lies with a select real estate ETF I am keeping my eye on to profit from falling real estate prices.

I can tell you that huge moves are starting to folding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these supercycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I urge you to visit my ETF Wealth Building Trading Newsletter  and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Fed Too Late To Prevent A Housing Market Crash?

Real Estate is one of the biggest purchases anyone will make in their lifetime.  It can account for 30x to 300x one’s annual income and take over 30 years to pay off.  After you’re done paying for your property, now you have to keep paying to maintain it and to support the property taxes to keep it.  What has happened to the US Real Estate market since the 2008-09 global credit market collapse and is the US Fed behind the curve?

Case-Shiller Home Price Index

One of the most common indicators used to measure national housing affordability and price trend is the Case-Shiller Home Price Index.  In this chart, we are displaying the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index – including all markets in the US.  It is fairly easy to see that in last 2016, on a national level, the Case-Shiller index had reached the 2006 peak level.  After that, the new Trump economy pushed it even higher where we now near 210.  This is a very uncommon level for this index and because we are in uncharted territory with this 210 ranking, it should concern everyone that a reversion maybe somewhere in our future.

Fed Funds Rate data from early 1990 till now

The question we’ve been asking our research team is “Is the US Fed behind the curve in the markets and how will that translate into the US/Global equity markets?”

When we consider the recent Fed rate increases (starting in 2016), our research team compared these levels to a modeling system we build back in 2013.  This modeling system suggests what the US Fed should have been doing based on certain GDP, Population and other factors.  The chart below is the Current Fed Funds Rate data from early 1990 till now.  The rise in valuation on the Case-Shiller index can almost be directly correlated to the amount of money available in the global markets and the US Fed rate levels.  More money and lower interest rates mean everyone was stampeding into housing expecting it to increase in value (which it did).  But what is next with the US Fed turning cautious recently?

US 30 Year Mortgage Rate

The US 30 Year Mortgage Rate has continued to rotate between 3.5% and 5% (on average).  We all know these rates vary depending on the borrower’s credit rating and other factors. Yet we believe any rates above 4% (on average) are dangerous for the markets and once lenders start to tighten requirements for loans while sellers start to aggressively decrease their asking price in order to attract buyers, we could see a massive shift in the market within a matter of months, not years.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

The global markets are setting up for some type of event.  Capital is being pulled out of the markets as investors/traders wait to see what happens with the US/China trade issues, the EU as well as the US Presidential election in November 2020.  Many economists and researchers believe a recession is fast approaching and are waiting for any signs that it is starting.

Are the turmoils setting up in the global stock market about to fracture into the global real estate market as well?  As investors and consumers engage in risk aversion processes, how will that result in continued economic activity in certain sectors of the global market?  Could it be that we are about to experience an economic contraction/reversion event that many analysts have failed to comprehend?

In part II of this article, we’ll show you our US Fed proprietary modeling system’s data and show you why we believe something big is going to unfold over the next 3 to 5+ years.  We’ll also highlight some very interesting data regarding the US real estate market that you should be preparing for right now.

Real Estate has already run through the price advance cycle and the price maturity cycle.  There is really only one cycle left to unfold at this point – the “price revaluation cycle”.  This is where the opportunity lies with a select real estate ETF I am keeping my eye on.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these super cycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I urge you to visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

PART 4 – Global Central Banks Move To Keep The Party Rolling

In this last segment of our multi-part research post regarding the US Fed and the global central banks, it is becoming evident that the fear of a further market contraction is resulting in the decrease in rates and the push for additional QE functions.  Our research has shown that the global economy has partially recovered from the 2008-09 credit market collapse, but the process of the recovery has resulted in a “blowout” type of event where shifting capital intents and the transition from the 19th century economic model towards a new 21st century economic model is setting up the global markets for a massive rotation event over the next 12 to 24 months – possibly longer.

PART 1 OF THIS ARTICLE

PART 2 OF THIS ARTICLE

PART 3 OF THIS ARTICLE

It is our belief that capital is still doing what capital always does, seeking out the best opportunities for safety and returns.  Right now, that location is easily found in only certain segments of the markets; volatility, precious metals, certain energy sectors, US Treasuries and CASH.  The future events, including the massive rotational event that we believe is about to unfold in the global markets, will change the way capital is deployed for many years to come.

It is very likely that this rotation event will create incredible opportunities for skilled technical traders or subscribers to our trade signal newsletter over the next 12 to 36 months and will likely prompt a further shift towards the new 21st-century economic model that we believe will be the ultimate outcome.

Taking a brief look at our recent history highlights the fact that capital becomes fearful about 12 to 16 months before a major US election event.  Additionally, certain other factors related to the global economy heighten this fear as US/China trade issues, global debt issues and economic output issues continue to plague the markets.  The combination of these types of events set up a “perfect storm” type of economic cycle where skilled technical traders are just waiting for the impact event to hit before the markets begin a bigger rotational event.

These types of events, similar to the 2000 and 2008-09 market crash event, are a process where price rotates out of a normal range and attempts to explore lower price levels that act as price support.  It is not uncommon for these types of events to happen, although the severity of these events is difficult to determine prior to their execution.

The US Fed and global central banks set up an easy money process over the past 9+ years that allowed for capital to be deployed as a process that has setup this current massive rotational event.  At first, the intent was to support collapsing markets and institutions – we understand that.  But the nature of capital is to always seek out suitable safety and returns, so capital did what is always does hunt out the best opportunities for profits.  First, it rallied into the crashing real estate market and emerging markets – which had been crushed by the 2008-09 credit crisis event.  Next, it piled into the Asian markets and healthcare/technology markets.  At this time, it also started piling into the startup/VC markets throughout the world as well as certain commodities.  The recovery seemed to have created a booming and cash-flush market for anyone with two dollars to rub together.

Then came the 2015-16 market contraction and the end of the US Fed QE processes.  At this time, China realized the need to control capital outflows and the US/Global markets slowed to a crawl as the US Presidential election cycle ramped-up.  It was just 12 months prior to this 2015-16 event that oil crashed from $114 to $46.  Within 2015-16, Oil continued to crash to levels below $30.  This was the equivalent of the blowout cycle for the global economy.  Headed into the 2016 US elections, the global economy was running on only 5 of 8 cylinders and was limping along hoping to find some way out of this mess.

The November 2016 US elections were just what the global economy needed and everyone’s perceptions about the future changed almost overnight.  I remember watching the price of Gold on election night; +$75 early in the evening as Clinton was expected to win, then it continued to fall back to +$0 fairly late in the evening, then it fell to -$75 as the news of a Trump win was solidified.  This rotation equated to a nearly 10% rotation in less than 24 hours based on FEAR.  Once fear was abated, global investors and capital went to work seeking out the safest environments and best returns – like normal.

This resurgence of capital into the markets set up of a new SOP (standard operating procedure) where capital began to be deployed in more risky environments and into broader and bigger investment structures.  This is the SETUP I’m trying to highlight that was created by the US Fed and central banks.  I don’t believe anyone thought, at that time in early 2017, that the current set of events would have transpired and I believe global governments, central banks, and global financial institutions thought, “Party on, dude!  We’re back to 2010 all over again”.  Boy, were they wrong.

This time, the global central banks, governments and state-run enterprises engaged in bigger and more complex credit/debt structures while attempting to run the same game they were running back in 2010 and 2011.  The difference this time is that the US Fed started raising Fed Fund Rates and destroyed the US Dollar carry trade while putting increasing pressure on the global market, global debt and global trade.  The continued rally of the US Dollar after the 2018 lows helped to solidify the advantages and risks in the markets.  This upside rally in the US Dollar, after the 2014 to 2016 rally, really upset the balance of the global markets and setup an increasing pressure point for foreign markets.

It soon became very evident that risks in the foreign markets could be partially mitigated by investing in the US stock market and by moving capital away from risky currencies and into US Dollar based assets.  Capital is always doing what it always does – seeking out the best environment for returns and protection from risk.  Thus, we have the setup right now – only 15 months before the 2020 US Presidential elections.  What happens now?

This setup is likely to prompt a rotation in the global markets as well as within the US stock market.  It is very likely that a continued contraction in consumer and banking activity (think business, real estate, trade, commodities, and others) will prompt a contraction in global economics very similar to what happened in 2014~2016.  This process will likely put extreme risk factors at play in some of the most fragile economies and state-run enterprises on the planet.  Once the flooring begins to crack in some of these markets, we’ll see how this event will play out.  Right now, our eye is watching Europe and Asia for early warning signs.

The US Fed will continue to manipulate the FFR levels in an attempt to help mitigate the risks associated with this contraction event.  It is likely that the US Fed already sees what we see and it attempting to position themselves into a more responsive stance given the potential outcomes.  Inadvertently, the US Fed and global central banks presented an offer that was too good for anyone to ignore – easy cash.  What they didn’t expect is that the 2014 to 2019 rally in the US Dollar and US stock market would transition capital deployment within the global market in such a way that it has – setting up the current event cycle.

We believe a downside pricing event is very likely over the next 10 to 25+ days where the US stock market may fall 12 to 25%, targeting levels shown on this chart (or slightly lower) as this rotational event takes place.  Ultimately, the US markets will recover much quicker than many foreign/global markets.  Our estimates are that the recovery in the US markets will likely begin to take place near March or April 2020 and continue higher beyond this date.

This Custom Smart Cash Index chart highlights the type of capital shift activity we’ve been describing to our readers and followers.  It is easy to see that capital moved out of risky investments within the downturns on this chart and into the most opportunistic equity markets within the uptrends on this chart.  Remember, most opportunistic markets are sometimes outside of the scope of this Smart Cash index.  For example, this chart does not relate strength in the Precious Metals markets or other commodities/currencies.  All this chart is trying to highlight for followers is how capital is being deployed in viable global equity markets and when capital is exiting or entering these markets.

Given the current setup, we would expect a breakdown in this Smart Cash Index over the next 4+ months to set up a new lower price level establishing a base/bottom before attempting to move higher.  We believe the 100 level, shown as historical support, is a proper target price level for this move initially.

Lastly, we believe capital is moving aggressively into the precious metals markets and we urge all skilled technical traders to pay attention to this chart of the Gold/Silver ratio.  If our analysis is correct and a larger rotation price cycle is about to unfold in the global markets, which may last well into 2020 (or beyond) for certain global markets, then you really need to pay attention to the upside potential for this Gold/Silver ratio.

As we’ve drawn on this chart, if this ratio recovers to 50% of the 2011 peak levels as this rotation unloads on the global market, this would push Gold and Silver prices to levels potentially 60% to 140%+ higher than current levels.  I understand how hard it is to understand these types of incredible price increases and how they could possibly be relative to current prices, but trust us in our research.  Gold and Silver prices have been measurably depressed over the past 3 to 4 years.  Unleashing the real valuation levels of these precious metals at a time when risk factors are excessive suggests that Gold could easily be trading above $3200 and Silver above $60 to $65 within 6 to 12 months.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In closing, we want to urge all skilled technical traders to keep a very open perspective to the “Party on, Dude” mode of the global central banks and be aware that a very fragile floor is the only thing holding up the markets in another massive US presidential election cycle event.  In our opinion, the writing is already on the wall and we are preparing for this rotational event and alerting our members on what to do to profit from these moves.

The Federal Reserve and global central banks will attempt to keep the party rolling for as long as possible because they know the downside event could be something they don’t want to have to deal with.  So watch how these global central banks attempt to nudge public perception away from risks and towards the “party on” mode.  Stay alert.  Stay aware.  When this breaks, it will break quickly and aggressively.

Using technical analysis and proven strategies we can follow the market trends and profit from them no matter which the market moves. We bet with the market (the house) and provide entry, target, and stops for all trades we initiate.

NEXT MOVES FOR GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

Detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused on gold miners and the SP 500 index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

We posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

JOIN ME AND TRADE WITH A PROVEN STRATEGY TODAY!

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Global Central Banks Move To Keep The Party Rolling – Part III

This section of our multi-part article regarding current and past central bank actions, we are going to attempt to look at key elements of the past and present to highlight what we believe may turn out to be an incredible “setup” in the global markets.

This setup is almost like a complex chess game where two skilled players battle for control and near the end of the game, one player is left with the King, a Rook, and a Pawn while the other player has a dramatic advantage with stronger chess pieces.  Yet, as the game continues, the weaker player is able to remove one or two of the stronger players key pieces and move his pawn to his opponent’s side to recover his Queen – thus altering the dynamic of the game and eventually winning.

This actually happened to me once playing against a friend of mine.  My friend was so wrapped up in trying to move my King into checkmate, he left his other pieces open for me to target and remove – while leaving my Pawn untouched.  After I had gained a clear advantage by removing his stronger pieces, I cornered his king within an area that allowed me to move my Pawn to his side of the board whereas I regained my Queen.  At that point, the game was nearly over for him – and he knew it.

Did the US Fed and global central banks set up a similar type of process in the global economy? We can rephrase this question as did the global central banks inadvertently set up a massive credit/debt problem by attempting to pour capital into the global markets to spark an economic recovery?  And did the acquisition of all of this debt/credit setup a “chase after the King” moment where foreign nations failed to understand the underlying risks associated with this move?  Have the dynamics of the global markets shifted away from the advantages that were present three to four+ years ago?

PART 1 of this article – Click Here

PART 2 of this article – Click Here

So, let’s investigate the data to see what we can find out about what is changing in the markets.

One change that is critical to the understanding of consumer sentiment is the savings rates for consumers.  Since the 2008-09 credit market crisis, Americans have started saving more of their income even though rates for savings have dramatically fallen.  This is a shift in consumer sentiment that suggests consumers are attempting to put more cash into savings in preparation for some future event.

The Fed expects economic growth rates in the US to run at far lower levels than in 2011 and 2012.  With all the capital that has been poured into the global markets, one would think growth rates would be moderately higher or climbing.  But we believe the global economy is stuck in a mode where capital is unable to be effectively deployed throughout the globe because of inherent economic failures and processes that prevent future growth.  We’ve discussed this in the previous article about how the US and global economies are stuck in a mostly 19th-century mode of operation while attempting to transition into a 21st-century mode of operation.  This transition may take another 10 to 20+ year, but it will eventually happen.

Until that transition is completed, expect further bumps in the road as traditional expectations for investment and returns are shattered – forcing a move towards a 21st-century economic revival.

The price of commodities is a perfect example of how the 19th-century economy is purging itself while the new 21st-century economy is searching for a foundation/footing to take root.  Oil is a prime example of the 19th-century economic foundation for growth and economic output.  Yet in today’s world of solar, green and various other energy sources, Oil has fallen to near $52 ppb recently and could fall as low as $35 to $38 ppb in the future months.  Considering Oil was recently above $120 bbp – what the heck happened?

This chart of the Index of All Commodities prices highlights the shift in capital and the shift in the economic mode of operation that is currently taking place.  What was an increasing commodities price market in 2005~07 and 2010~12 has now been replaced with a decreasing commodity pricing market. Is this indicative of a collapse in the global economy?  In some ways, yes.  But we believe this is more indicative of a transitional economic shift away from 19th-century processes and functions and towards a more dynamic 21st century economic model for the globe.

This process, though, will be full of very large price swings, failures, successes, and opportunities for those skilled technical traders that are able to catch the moves and setup as they happen.

Lastly, the US Consumer Price Index chart.  Notice how the GREEN highlighted area (from the early 1960s till 2000 were filled with positive CPI results?  Notice how that changed in 2000 and how after 2000 the CPI levels fluctuated from positive to negative quite regularly?  Now, pay attention to how the expansion of peaks immediately after the 2000 Dot Com bubble burst has been replaced with a contraction of peaks after the 2008-09 credit market crisis.  What is causing the CPI to contract in this manner?  Why is is that expansion of commodity pricing is unable to expand as it had been going for decades before 2008-09?

The key to understanding all of this is that the expansion prior to 2000 was an expansion fueled by rising wages, income, wealth creation and opportunity from a mature 19th-century economic model.  The 1990 to 2000 narrow range in the CPI was related to the “early shift” away from the 19th-century economic mode and into the Dot Com (internet) mode of economic activity (where this new economic model was taking away from brick-and-mortar shopping malls and replacing it with virtual commerce activities.  The recovery in 2005 was fueled by moderate quantitative easing in the US as well as a resurgence in more traditional economic functions related to the growth of economic opportunity in foreign nations, Europe and the push to expand digital technology throughout most of the developing world.

Then came the crisis of 2008-09, which was like blowing out 3 pistons of your V8 motor.  You may still be able to limp the car around and back home, but you probably have to keep pouring high-octane fuel into it to keep it running and hope it does not blow out another piston or two.

This Custom Smart Cash Index chart is a perfect example of how capital works in the markets.  It attempts to avoid risk by reducing exposure to risk events and attempts to pile into an opportunity as security and returns are setup for optimum outcomes.

Notice how in 2008 capital fled the global markets and how it slowly reentered the markets from 2011 to 2015.  Pay attention to the dips in this Smart Cash Index and you’ll notice how these dips align with the US Fed and global central bank QE functions.  Pay very close attention to the dip in 2015~2016.  Why would cash want to avoid risks setting up during this time and what caused the global markets to fear excessive risks then?  US Presidential elections – that’s what happened.  And what is happening in November 2020? Yup – you guessed it.

Why would risks become so heightened at these times and throughout collapse events and where does capital rush into when these types of events happen?

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In Part IV of this article, we’ll try to answer some of your bigger questions and we’ll explain why we believe an incredible opportunity is setting up for skilled technical traders over the next 24+ months.

Using technical analysis and proven strategies we can follow the market trends and profit from them no matter which the market moves. We bet with the market (the house) and provide entry, target, and stops for all trades we initiate.

NEXT MOVES FOR GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused on gold miners and the SP 500 index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

JOIN ME AND TRADE WITH A PROVEN STRATEGY TODAY!

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Part II – Global Central Banks Kick Can Down The Road Again

As we continue to explore the events of the past 10 to 20+ years and how the global central banks continue to attempt to navigate through these difficult times, we want to take a few minutes to try to understand and explain how the capital that has exploded into the global markets has been deployed and used to chase returns, risk and opportunity and may continue to be deployed more efficiently going forward.

Read Part I of this series here: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/global-central-banks-move-to-keep-the-party-rolling-onward/

The recent news that the global central banks may begin a new round of stimulus and easing got us thinking – “what next?”.  Over the past 10 to 20+ years, global central banks have attempted to prompt an economic recovery that seems to slip past economic planners and we believe that is because core functions of the global economy are weaker than many expect.  We’re going to try to explore some of these factors and prepare traders for what may come in the future months.

Much of the capital that was dumped into the markets was deployed into the global equity markets as investments in emerging markets, capital markets, and the US stock market.  As much as everyone wants to think this capital went into infrastructure and other essential investments, much of it went into the only thing that was capable of generating an easy return with limited risk – the global stock market.

At first, after 2008, we saw an immediate jump in emerging markets.  This sector of the global economy had been hard hit by the collapse in 2008-09 and an incredible opportunity existed because of a price anomaly that was created near the bottom in 2009.  Emerging markets were recipients of some capital when the central banks began to infuse money into the system, but their equity markets were uniquely positioned for advancements because of the pricing levels after the crash.

The SPEM chart below highlights the recovery in the emerging market that took place almost immediately after the bottom formed in 2009.  We can clearly see the immediate price advance and the resulting sideways price action after 2011.  Once this sector recovered up to previous 2007 levels, there was really nothing else to push it much higher.

Traders should also take notice of the rally in 2016 and 2017.  This rally was based on forward expectations that renewed interest in emerging markets would result in increased returns.  These aligned with expectations resulting from the US Presidential election (2016) as well.  This price advance consisted of a +86% price advance from $23 to $42.  Could it happen again?

We believe the next phase of the global market recovery will result in a similar type of price advance after new lows are established in emerging markets.  Skilled technical traders should continue to plan for and prepare for this type of setup once emerging markets complete a process of exploring lower lows to form a bottom.  This process should complete just before the 2020 US presidential elections and will likely result in another price anomaly setup where the price is well below expected asset levels (extreme pessimism) and will set up as an incredible +40% to +80% upside potential as renewed optimism and the continued transitional process of the global economy persists.  Traders just need to wait for the setup – then execute their trades.

The continued process of how capital rolls from one environment to another in search of returns is something we have attempted to explain in detail over the past months.  We call it the “capital shift” process.  Our belief is that capital (cash) is always hunting for suitable investments in various forms and continues to shift from one environment (market segment) to another as opportunities (ROI) and risks (healthy investment environments) change.  So, think of capital as a migratory asset that continues to shift into and out of various segments of the market as opportunities and risks present themselves.

One of the biggest benefactors of the quantitative easing and central bank policies of the past 10+ years has been the US equity market.  Take a look at this NAS100 chart to see what we mean.

When we take into consideration the post 9/11 market rally in this NAS100 chart (highlighted by the blue rectangle) we can see that, at that time, the capital was focused away from the US markets because other foreign markets were better positioned in terms of ROI and risk.  Even though the US was engaging in moderate QE processes to recover from a moderate economic crisis, a price advance in the NAS100 was muted – nothing like the right side of this chart.

The post-2009 advance in the NAS100 is a completely different story.  The technology sector in the US had shifted away from a heavy risk factor and into a “unicorn” mode by 2012/2013.  This shift in the investment environment meant that global traders saw the US technology market (NAS100) and an excellent opportunity for capital deployment.  As more and more cash poured into the NAS100 chasing these gains, prices continued to skyrocket higher.  What next?

Unless the dynamics of this market shift away from expected gains or the US Dollar weakens dramatically, we believe the US stock market will continue to experience some volatility and continued price advancement while capital waits to see what happens throughout the rest of the global market.

We do believe the increased volatility of the past 2 years highlights an extended risk for rotation over the next 2+ years and we believe a move lower may be something we have to prepare for as the 6000 level has already been established as support.  Therefore, we are not suggesting the NAS100 will go straight up from here.  We are suggesting that unless something dramatic happens to change the economic environment, the US markets will continue to be viewed as opportunistic by global investors and that dips in price, even big ones, will likely respond with a nearly immediate recovery in price – even if a dip were to happen well below the 6000 level.

Once the economic environment shifts away from opportunity in the US, then all bets are off in terms of downside risk – if this ever happens.

Another factor that everyone must be aware of is Real Estate.  Recently, US real estate has continued to rally as rates have continued to maintain some level of affordability throughout most of the US.  Certain areas have gotten very un-affordable and these markets are already experiencing a pricing reversion where prices are declining as sellers attempt to attract buyers at high prices.  Overall, though, the health of the US real estate market is still moderately strong.

One thing that we would be concerned about is a perceptional shift away from buying if the US Fed and global central banks engage in new stimulus processes.  Consumers may view this process as a warning that some concern is underlying the efforts of the central banks and hold off on buying real estate while they wait to see what happens after the US 2020 elections.  We believe this may already be happening right now.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

The REZ real estate ETF continues to push higher as pricing becomes an issue and sales levels continue to support a fairly active market.  We are concerned that a sharp change in perception could be taking place over the next 12+ months as fears of a change in US political leadership may thwart or diminish some forward expectations.  Investors need to pay attention to all aspects of the markets in order to prepare for future opportunities and price moves.

In Part III of this article, we’ll look into some of the fundamental elements of the US and global economies and how the past actions of the US Fed and global central banks may have set up the global markets for the bigger price rotations we are expecting over the next 12 to 24+ months.

Also, takes a look at today’s charts compared to the 2008 market top and I can’t warn enough that the next financial crisis (bear market) is scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH SUBSCRIPTION
TO PREMIUM TRADE SIGNALS!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Up over 24.16% in Gains this month and its only Aug 8th Sent Thursday, August 8, 2019

I hope this weeks sell-off and rally whipsaw didn’t catch you off guard? Subscribers of TheTechnicalTraders Wealth Building Newsletter pocketed a whopping 24.16% return this week with three positions (SDS, UGLD & SIL).

Anyways, on Wednesday I sent you a reminder that I will be adding my short term trading signal software signals to my newsletter like the ones listed above and once I add these I will be raising the newsletter price.

My ETF Trading Newsletter is available with up to a 30% discount plus I am giving away a free silver or gold bars for select membership levels which could be worth a lot of money a year or two from now and pay for most of the newsletter. I just wanted to let you know this lower rate and offer will end soon so this will be your LAST CHANCE to get on board and test drive an ETF trading service that truly makes money for its subscribers and teaches you at the same time!

Summer is coming to an end which means it’s time to prepare for a strong fourth quarter in trading. The Wealth Building ETF trading and education program has been navigating its members through the market with precision for many years.

In fact, we just broke the 100% return
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As we head towards the fourth quarter I have a few great trade ideas queued up. Overall it looks like 2019 will continue to be another banner year for the newsletter!

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Lead Story in TradersWorld Magazine – Free and A Must Read pg 7

Larry Jacobs the owner of TradersWorld magazine which is the best publication for technical analysis and technical trading featured a great article on the where the stock market is as of today, and how this exact setup in price is what we experienced in 2008 JUST before the big crash.

Download the magazine here free and skip to page 7 which is the first article and give it a quick read, it’s packed with incredible insight for what is next, not only for the US stock market but gold, silver and miners also.

US Fed Set To Rattle Global Markets – Part I

With less than 24 hours to go before the US Fed rate decision announcement, all eyes are watching how the US stock market is reacting to the possibility of a rate cut (25 basis point) that has been telegraphed by the US fed many weeks in advance. Almost as if the US stock market is moving against all odds, the S&P and NASDAQ have pushed higher into new all-time high territory while the Dow Jones index currently trades just below recent highs.  What should traders expect with the Fed announcement and beyond?

Probability of Rate Cut Percent

First, we need to understand the global markets have already priced a 25 basis point rate decrease into the markets based on expectations.  The CME Fed expectations data suggests the market is 78.1% confident that a 25 basis point rate decrease will happen.

Source (CME)

This suggests that global traders are already prepared for this move and we may not see much volatility if the US Fed does not surprise anyone with their language/future expectations.

We believe the US Fed is taking this rate decrease to ease the supply of US Dollars throughout the world.  Over the past 18+ months, the strength of the US Dollar has prompted a shift away from weaker global economies and into the US equities market, US Treasuries and the US Dollar.  We believe this shift is reaching a critical moment in time where the fragility of the foreign markets has reached a tipping point.

Weekly US Dollar chart

You can see from this Weekly US Dollar chart that the rally from the bottom in early 2018 has been tremendous – +11.25% and climbing.  While this US Dollar rally has taken place, many foreign currencies have continued to weaken while the global economy has recently slowed to a crawl.  As long as the US Dollar stays within the magenta price channel moving forward, we expect this trend to continue.

The shift in how capital is being deployed and the stress that continues throughout the globe with regards to economic activity and output is related to something that we believe took place back in 2007 through 2016 – the global effort to support a very weak global economy.

We highlighted some of our thoughts in this recent research post about the black hold in global banking.

Overall, we believe the actions by the global central banks and the US Fed from 2007 till 2016 created a “setup” in the global markets that very few people foresaw or understood.  This shift happened at a pace and fever that few people could comprehend and came to a head in November 2016 when President Trump was elected.  We believe it happened somewhat like this…

2004~2006: Greenspan raises rates on an unprecedented scale (over 450%) pushing the US/global banking/credit sector into crisis in 2007-08

2008~2010: As the biggest global banking/credit crisis unfolds, the US Fed and global central banks do everything possible to save the world from decades of economic malaise and destruction.  US Fed lowers interest rates to near ZERO creating a run on US dollar debt/credit.

The Current Market Setup

2011~2015: As foreign market engages in debt/credit expansion, infrastructure projects and an “easy money” rally mode, something begins to change in 2014~2015.  China realizes the nation’s wealth is being exported to the US and other markets as well as a US stock market rotation that shocked the global investors.

2016~2017: The US Elections (2016) took the focus away from the global markets for a period of 15+ months and allowed the easy US Dollar trading activities to continue into hyperspace.  This is when many foreign nations/companies took huge risks leveraging debt and success into future debt/risks based on a belief that “this success will never end”.

Then This Happened…

January 2017: President Trump is sworn in and the US Fed begins raising rates aggressively.  The disruption that resulted from this 2017 combination event resulting in one of the largest “global unwinding” processes we’ve seen in quite a while and it has really only just begun.

The downward rotation in the US Dollar in early 2017 as a result of uncertainty in US policy and perceived strength in foreign markets as US interest rates were still relatively low – under 1.4% most of that time.  After US FFR rates crossed above the 1.75% level, the easy US Dollar carry trade became much more difficult to maintain and foreign investors had already setup trillions in debts expecting the US Fed to maintain easy money policies for decades.


Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EFFR

What is the US Fed expected to do at this time?  Either they lower the FFR so that the global markets can continue to run their credit/debt functions and attempt to deleverage the “setup” over the next 5+ years or the US Fed risks creating a run-away train type of scenario where foreign central banks lack the ammo to support their own economies and the US Fed risks creating hyper-inflation by not acting accordingly.  In short, the US Fed to the global bankers rescues again.

Well, here we go with the US Fed setting the policy and expectations for the future as this incredible 1800% FFR rate increase has pushed the global markets into potential turmoil.  We’ll complete our research in the second half of this research post in a few hours stay tuned!

CRUCIAL WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, And S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where each commodity and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com