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Double Top In Transportation and Metals Breakout Are Key Topping Signals

Our researchers identified this critical Double-Top pattern in the Transportation Index after a very strong price rally on Friday, July 12.  Double-Top patterns are very important in terms of Fibonacci price structure because they reflect a complete price rejection at a certain price level.  In this case, the TRAN Double Top level is $10,655 and our research team believes weakness at this level will push a downward price swing which should attempt to break through the $10,250 level and possibly attempt to move much lower.

The Transportation Index reflects future expectations for shipping of goods and raw materials across the US and, of course, is somewhat related to global economic activity.  If the Transportation Index falls in price, then future expectations are for weaker economic activity.  If it rises, then investors expect the economy to continue to strengthen.

This Double-Top formation in the TRAN could set up to become a very ominous warning sign for traders and investors.

Recent news about the contraction of China’s economy and the fact that Q2 earnings are about to hit the US markets and global markets could become a key factor in the future for volatility and price.  We believe the markets are already setting up a topping pattern after breaching key psychological levels last week.

MINERS ARE OUTPERFORMING US EQUITIES – TOP IS NEAR!

Last month I talked about how I have been waiting for gold miners to start outperforming the US stocks market. Once miners start outperforming in a big way (just like we saw in 2007), we know the stock market is topping out and something really bad is about to happen.

In the last couple of weeks, the gold miners index is up over 20% while the SP500 is up only 4%, this feels like the start-of-the-end if you know what I mean.

Gold miners and silver broke out today in a big way which could very well be the start of an epic rally for the precious metals sector as we heading into the end of the year.

Looks at the SP500 index in the chart below which is of the 2007 bull market top. Currently, the SP500 has formed a very similar pattern in 2019 and with the precious metals rocketing higher I think it almost lights out for the US equities.

See my updated chart showing where gold miners and the stock market is today within this cycle:  https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/next-bull-and-bear-markets-are-now-set-up/

TRANSPORTS, INDUSTRIALS, and SMALL-CAP STOCKS Confirm Market Is Topping

Based on the 2008 weekly chart below the US stock market could be literally 2-6 weeks away from collapsing. What makes this even scarier is that the market liquidity is the worst its been in my 23 years of trading. This means when the selling starts we will likely see some sort of flash crash as we saw in 2008, 2015, and 2018. Price drops so quickly that by the time you figure out what you want to do and get your money properly positioned most of the move is already finished. See 2008 and 2019 Comparison Charts here.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Pay attention to our research because we feel the market could breakdown on weakness later this week or early next week.  Our predictive modeling systems are suggesting an August 19th, 2019 breakdown date and we are only about 25 trading days away from that date.

In short, the bear market has been a long time coming, but finally, almost all the signs are showing that it’s about to start. As a technical analyst since 1997 having lost a fortune and making a fortune from bull and bear markets I have a good understanding of how to best attack the market during its various stages. Stay Tuned for My Cycle Analysis Article Next! 

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months – most traders/investors have simply not been looking for it.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar Shipped To You Free.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally also and some of these supercycles are going to last years. We go into great detail with this simple one of a kind and a real eye-opening financial market research booklet full of timely charts.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

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Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

Major Index Top In 3 to 5 Weeks?

Our researchers rely on a number of proprietary tools and cycle forecasting technology.  Additionally, we use custom index charts to help measure price cycles, trends, support & resistance and many other aspects of the markets.  Recently, we posted an article relating to the US Dollar and foreign currencies using custom index techniques.  In the past, we’ve highlighted our Custom Price Cycle index that we use to gauge market sentiment, topping and bottoming setups.  All of these tools are essential for our team of researchers while they attempt to identify trade setups and larger market events.

Currently, we are highlighting a number of our custom index chart that suggest a market top may only be 3 to 5 weeks away and the setup of this market top may surprise many traders. We posted a good forecast chart here also.

First, we’ll highlight our Smart Money Custom Index chart on a Monthly charting basis.  As you can see since the ultimate price bottom in 2009, and using the price range from 2015 to 2016 (the rotation prior to the 2016 Presidential Elections) as the basis for the forward envelope, our Smart Money index shows the markets have rallied to levels just above the envelope in January 2018, then rotated lower to levels near the lower envelope levels in December 2018.  This extended price rotation suggests the entire year of 2018 prompted a massive price rotation event that likely resulted in a price revaluation cycle.

Our researchers believe the strength of the US Dollar will continue to drive foreign investments into the US stock market and prompt a rally to levels near the middle of this price envelope before stalling and topping in August or September of 2019.  This top formation should result in a price decline in the US stock market of at least 16% with a maximum decline level of somewhere between 24% to 28% overall.  We’ll get into more detail about that later in this article.

We want our readers to understand this Custom Price Cycle chart highlights the level at which the price bottom will likely form, near the lower level of the current price envelope, and suggests the current price rally will likely attempt to breach key psychological price levels ($300: SPY, $3000: ES, $30k: INDU) before this new price top completes.

After these new price highs are reached above the key psychological price levels, we believe the new price top will immediately begin to form with a short period of sideways price action, then a price decline back below these psychological levels and likely initiating a downward price decline of at least 11 to 13%.  It is our opinion that this downward price decline in the US stock market will align with increased global market weakness and currency devaluations that are likely to be much greater in scale and scope than the US stock market price decline.

We believe the US Dollar will continue to stay strong while staying above $95~96 throughout most of this price decline.  We believe the strength in the US Dollar may be a catalyst for the future global market price declines and may also play out in future activities in precious metals and commodities.

The strength of the US Dollar, while foreign markets are contracting, would present a very ominous event as debt, credit and future operational standards of many foreign corporations, nations, governments, and consumers could come under severe pressures.

This Custom Price Cycle chart, below, highlights the current price setup of the US stock market in relation to previous high and low points.  The closer we come to the upper price channel, the more likely we are to see price setup and seek out a price top formation.  Although, history has shown that price can move up to these upper levels and continue to trend in an upward price channel for many weeks and months.  So, at some point in the future, we would expect to see this Custom Price Cycle chart revert back to 2017 type price activity where price continually attempts to stay near the upper price channel levels with very mild price rotations.

Currently, though, we believe the US stock market is only 3 to 5 weeks away from a major price topping formation and that the downside price move will likely result in a, roughly, -16% to -25% downside price rotation before the end of 2019.  We believe US earnings will push this Custom Price Cycle chart to levels near or above the upper price channel level and that will drive the US Dollar higher as well as a shift in capital deployment prior to the end of September.  The shift will be away from technology and mid-caps and into the safety of cash, metals and large-cap equities.

This shift in capital investments will likely transpire over many weeks before a serious price breakdown begins.  In other words, we expect a top formation to setup somewhere between August 15 and September 16.  This top formation will likely result in 3~6 weeks of sideways downward pricing pressure before a larger price breakdown happens.  We believe the larger price breakdown will coincide with some external economic event and result in a migration of capital away from risk and into cash/metals/safety.  Right now, our estimate is that this external economic event may be a currency devaluation event (Asian currencies breaking down and putting pressure throughout Europe and the rest of the developing world).

It is very likely that some issue related to the US/China trade deal prompts this currency devaluation move or that some extended credit/debt crisis event becomes more evident to investors.  We believe the Asian currencies are particularly at risk for this event and that European and development market currencies will likely collapse as a result of the Asian/European currency price declines.

The US technology sector could be uniquely vulnerable should this event unfold as we suspect.  Foreign markets and investor are heavily invested in the US technology sector.  Many of these investors have moved their capital into the US Technology sector to avoid risks related to their home country’s currencies and to take advantage of the US Dollar strength.  A decline in the US stock market, of any level greater than 10%, could send a shock-wave through the global markets and cause investors to shift away from risk and into safety.

Expect to see the volatility index to start rising and for the price of options to jump as well. I posted this VIX chart and cycle analysis a couple of days ago and its good for another few weeks in terms of its direction.

IN CONCLUSION:

Our researchers believe we are only a few weeks away from this event and those Q2 US earnings will push the US stock market above these psychological price levels.  It is this event, the push above the key psychological price levels ($ 300: SPY, $ 3000: ES, $ 30k: INDU) that will likely trigger the topping event and set off a chain reaction event that we have described.

Pay very close attention to how the foreign currency market reacts over this time-span and pay very close attention to Gold/Silver and the US Dollar.  We believe this topping price formation is going to unfold just as we are suggesting and we believe this will be an incredible opportunity for skilled technical traders.

We’ll keep you informed as this plays out with Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar Shipped To You!

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

IM GIVING THEM AWAY WITH 2-YEAR MEMBERSHIPS

So kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for one or two years to get your FREE BULLION and enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

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Chris Vermeulen – Technical Traders Ltd

How To Time Market Tops and Bottoms

On this first full weekend of Summer, we thought we would revisit our June 3, 2019 research post regarding a price pattern we love to trade – the Fibonacci Extension Bounce.  This pattern sets up fairly often and the key to understanding this pattern and where these trades present real opportunity is in understanding the price dynamics behind these extensions.  There are many instances where a Fibonacci price extension level will fail to promote a price bounce or rebound – and the price will just keep trending higher or lower past the extension level.

You can read our original research post here that clearly shows the bottom and our price targets.

Pay very close attention to the price levels and setups of the charts within that June 3, 2019 post.  These setups are based on what we term a “100% Fibonacci Extension” from a previous trend reversal (peak or valley).  The concept of this trading pattern is that the initial “impulse” price move sets up the first leg of a move.  The retracement price move sets up the entry trigger for the second price leg – the next 100% price leg.  The bottom, in this case, of the second 100% price leg sets up the “end of the move” and the potential for a price rotation in the opposite direction (likely resulting in a 38% to 61%+ retracement move).

In both instances of our June 3 calls, Crude Oil and the ES followed-through exactly as we predicted.

This first chart of Crude Oil shows how price bottomed near $52 and has recently advanced to levels near $58 after reaching the 100% Fibonacci extension levels.  As this move higher extends to levels near the ORANGE moving average line on this chart and/or beyond the $58 to $59 target level we originally drew on our June 3rd charts, we would consider the upside price move “completed” based on our expectations.  Yes, these types of trend could extend even further beyond our expectations.  But our objective, as skilled traders, is to target and profit from the highest probability objectives – which was the move from $52 to near current price levels.

Follow the MAGENTA lines on these charts to see the Fibonacci Extension Pattern Setup.  They are not hard to see on the charts when your eyes are trained to identify them.

This ES Daily chart shows the incredible +230 point rally that took place after our June 3 research post and after the Fibonacci extension pattern completed.  It is really hard to miss the opportunity with a move like this.  Again, follow the MAGENTA lines on this chart to see the Fibonacci Extension pattern setup.

At this point on the ES chart, the upside price rally has resulted in a 161% (roughly) upside price advance of the previous Fibonacci Extension pattern (last leg).  This upside price leg range, 161%, suggests the upside price move should be close to ending soon.  There is a possibility that price could advance to levels near 200% of the previous price leg range, but traders would be chasing a 25% further upside advance that may only be a low probability outcome.

Our advice for skilled traders is to pare back existing open long trade positions near these new all-time highs.  The price advance appears to have reached levels that suggest the upside advance may be nearing an end point for the US stock markets.  After such a big upside price leg, we have to be cautious near these new all-time highs that further price rotation may become a concern.

Oil, on the other hand, could continue to rally because it has only advanced 61% of the last Fibonacci 100% price leg.  The global concerns regarding Iran and the US, as well as global economic concerns, could push Oil back up to the $60 to $62 level before reaching a peak.

Over the past 21+ months, we’ve highlighted some of the best tools and techniques we use to find great trading signals.  This one technique, the Fibonacci 100% Price Expansion Leg, is just one of the tools we use to find trades and targets for our trade alerts for members.

The more one understands how price works and how the markets operate as a Symphony of price actions, one can find opportunities for great trades almost all the time.  Skill and experience make the difference when deciding when to trade and what to trade and that’s what we provide.

More eye opening charts on currencies and gold here

We’ve now shown you two different price setups using Fibonacci price theory and the only thing we have to do is wait for a technical price confirmation before finding our entry trade.  We’ll see how this plays out over the next few days and weeks.  Remember, we are not proposing these as “major price bottoms”. They are “upside pullback trades” (bounces) at this point.  A bullish price pullback in a downtrend.

BECOME A TECHNICAL TRADER TODAY AND 
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Chris Vermeulen

US Dollar Rallies Off Support But Is This A Top Or Bottom?

The US dollar rallied nearly half a percent off recent support near $96.50.  This upside price move confirms the capital shift we have been talking about.  Foreign capital is pouring into US markets and US dollar as strength in the US economy continues to dominate.

This new upside move in the US dollar has established a new lower price channel that should continue to act as price support going forward. Fibonacci price structure dictates that a higher low and a higher high price rotation may follow. We would expect some resistance just below the $98 level and if the Fed lowers the rate the dollar will likely pullback and consolidate for a few weeks to digest the news, but investors will still see the USD as the strong currency and keep buying it longer term.

It is important to understand the strength in the US dollar and the US economy should continue unless something interrupts the growth and continued out what from the US. It is very likely capital will continue to seek out the best returns and the best safety which we believe is available only in the US right now. Eventually, things may change where foreign markets become more opportunistic for investors and capital begins to shift away from the US markets. Until that happens we believe the US markets will continue to drive higher and likely push towards new all-time highs.

The strength of the US dollar is muting the upside potential in precious metals as well as the US stock market. We believe the underlying strength and opportunities resulting from the capital shift, where capital is rushing into US markets, will eventually override the strength of the US dollar. In other words, investors will continue to pour money into US stocks and into precious metals as a protection mechanism against risk while the US dollar continues to rise.  If and when the US dollar does rate below the lower price channel, the US stock market may likely breakdown as well and precious metals should skyrocket higher. Until that time, we expect a moderate price advance to continue in the US stock market major and mid-cap sectors, the US dollar, and precious metals.

Gold will likely rally from the 1340 level to just below 1380 on the next leg. Then Gold will likely cause and rotate to near 1360, pause briefly, then rally to levels above 1400. We believe this rally may happen before July 12-15, 2019.

Follow our research to stay ahead of the market moves.  We’ve been warning our followers for months that 2019 and 2020 will include incredible opportunities for skilled traders. We’ve also been calling these major moves very accurately. With the US elections only 15 months away, we urge all traders and investors to pay very close attention to our research and insights.

We have recently suggested that a major price may set up in late August or early September 2019. Once we get to this date or closer to this inflection point, we’ll provide more insight as to what our modeling systems are suggesting.

UNIQUE PHYSICAL SILVER OPPORTUNITY:

I have taken advantage of the flow into the safe-haven assets like the Utility sector, and most importantly precious metals (GLD up 3.68%, GDXJ up 11.16%). I anticipated this and our XLU utilities ETF taken with members was a quick 3.11% winner. Our VIX ETF trade also hit our 25% profit target within a few days of entry.

Now, I have a few silver rounds here at my desk I am going to give away and ship out to anyone who joins me with a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to Wealth Trading Newsletter. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription if you a current subscriber or join one of these two exciting offers below, and you will receive:

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Chris Vermeulen

Technical Analysis Shows Aug/Sept Market Top Pattern Should Form

We have been pouring over the data and currently believe our earlier prediction of a July/August 2019 market top should be revised to an Aug/Sept 2019 expected market top pattern.  The following research posts we authored recently suggested a top may form in July/Aug 2019 and believe this critical top formation would form at new all-time highs.  We still believe this is possible regarding the price predictions, yet we believe the price top will now form near the end of August or early September after an extended Pennant/Flag formation is completed.

Please review the following research posts by our team…

June 5, 2019: Fear Drives market Expectations: HERE

May 14, 2019: Trade Issues Will Drive Market Trends, Part II: HERE

March 31, 2019: Proprietary Cycles Predict July Turning Point For Stock Market: HERE

Using our proprietary price modeling tools and systems, believe the critical price peak in the US stock market will now happen between August 26 and September 20 (see the chart below).  A number of key factors are lining up to extend this topping pattern into August/September and the key component is the formation of the Pennant/Flag formation and the fact that this price pattern must complete before a breakout/breakdown move is possible.

An upside price bias will continue throughout the formation of the Pennant/Flag formation leading to a moderate price breakout where the S&P will briefly break through the $3000 price level, then stall – forming the Top pattern/rotation we are expecting.

A continued Capital Shift will drive prices higher over the next 45 to 60+ days where foreign capital will continue to chase the strong US Dollar and the strength of the US stock market.  The true critical price move, where our analysis will become even more important, happens after September 1, 2019 – where the Pennant Apex and a critical inflection point are set.

On June 5, 2019, we posted this VIX chart in the article listed above.  The US stock market will rotate higher in an upward price bias over the next 45+ days.  This will project the Pennant/Flag formation and set up the critical top pattern that we are expecting in late August or early September.  When you look at this chart of the VIX, below, consider that the upside price move in the VIX may be delayed by about 10 to 15 days based on our newest analysis.  We still believe the VIX expansion will happen as we are suggesting, we are altering the timeline of these predictions to support our newest research.

As we move closer to these critical dates, we’ll keep you informed of our expectations and what new information our predictive modeling systems are suggesting.  In the meantime, get ready to play some moderate price swings.  Don’t get caught on the short side of this move just yet.  We have no real confirmation that a large downside move will take place over the next 60+ days and these early shorts are going to feel a lot of pressure over the next 45 to 60+ days if the market moves higher.

This is one scenario of how the stock market may play out, we have a few others we are following with subscribers to our Wealth Building Newsletter with much more detail. Each day we share a pre-market video and show you where all the major markets are headed for the day, week and month ahead. The analysis is done on the futures market but we focus on trading ETFs for the indexes and commodities.

In fact, there are several super cycles starting to take place as we head into 2020 and beyond which Brad Matheny and layout in our new book: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com