Our researchers identified this critical Double-Top pattern in the Transportation Index after a very strong price rally on Friday, July 12. Double-Top patterns are very important in terms of Fibonacci price structure because they reflect a complete price rejection at a certain price level. In this case, the TRAN Double Top level is $10,655 and our research team believes weakness at this level will push a downward price swing which should attempt to break through the $10,250 level and possibly attempt to move much lower.
The Transportation Index reflects future expectations for shipping of goods and raw materials across the US and, of course, is somewhat related to global economic activity. If the Transportation Index falls in price, then future expectations are for weaker economic activity. If it rises, then investors expect the economy to continue to strengthen.
This Double-Top formation in the TRAN could set up to become a very ominous warning sign for traders and investors.
Recent news about the contraction of China’s economy and the fact that Q2 earnings are about to hit the US markets and global markets could become a key factor in the future for volatility and price. We believe the markets are already setting up a topping pattern after breaching key psychological levels last week.
MINERS ARE OUTPERFORMING US EQUITIES – TOP IS NEAR!
Last month I talked about how I have been waiting for gold miners to start outperforming the US stocks market. Once miners start outperforming in a big way (just like we saw in 2007), we know the stock market is topping out and something really bad is about to happen.
In the last couple of weeks, the gold miners index is up over 20% while the SP500 is up only 4%, this feels like the start-of-the-end if you know what I mean.
Gold miners and silver broke out today in a big way which could very well be the start of an epic rally for the precious metals sector as we heading into the end of the year.
Looks at the SP500 index in the chart below which is of the 2007 bull market top. Currently, the SP500 has formed a very similar pattern in 2019 and with the precious metals rocketing higher I think it almost lights out for the US equities.
TRANSPORTS, INDUSTRIALS, and SMALL-CAP STOCKS Confirm Market Is Topping
Based on the 2008 weekly chart below the US stock market could be literally 2-6 weeks away from collapsing. What makes this even scarier is that the market liquidity is the worst its been in my 23 years of trading. This means when the selling starts we will likely see some sort of flash crash as we saw in 2008, 2015, and 2018. Price drops so quickly that by the time you figure out what you want to do and get your money properly positioned most of the move is already finished. See 2008 and 2019 Comparison Charts here.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
Pay attention to our research because we feel the market could breakdown on weakness later this week or early next week. Our predictive modeling systems are suggesting an August 19th, 2019 breakdown date and we are only about 25 trading days away from that date.
In short, the bear market has been a long time coming, but finally, almost all the signs are showing that it’s about to start. As a technical analyst since 1997 having lost a fortune and making a fortune from bull and bear markets I have a good understanding of how to best attack the market during its various stages. Stay Tuned for My Cycle Analysis Article Next!
Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter. You won’t want to miss this big move, folks. As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months – most traders/investors have simply not been looking for it.
Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar Shipped To You Free.
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally also and some of these supercycles are going to last years. We go into great detail with this simple one of a kind and a real eye-opening financial market research booklet full of timely charts.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.
FREE GOLD or SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!
So kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get yourFREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through thenext metalsbull market and financial crisis!
Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/136.png590865adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-07-17 21:22:282019-07-17 21:22:28Double Top In Transportation and Metals Breakout Are Key Topping Signals
Everyone knows something bad is brewing not just in the USA but globally within the financial systems. Most countries are bankrupt, and almost all currencies have been losing value for the past year. Everyone is playing the game of musical chairs and getting creative with how they borrow, lend, create, and steal money in hopes the world does not catch on to just how corrupt and bad things really are.
It’s just a matter of time before we see another financial market meltdown and what I show you here today gives you an idea of just how close we could be to a market collapse.
The financial markets rarely repeat the same type of crisis, but most crisis’ cause the stock market to sell off and crash in the same way. Human nature and emotions do not change, and because traders and investors drive the price action of stocks we are able to profit from bear markets.
In fact, bear markets can be life-changing in a good way for those who know how to trade these market conditions. Because stocks fall 3-7 times faster than they rise, you can generate the same amount of returns someone who invested at the beginning of a 10-year bull market and sold at the top, but you can do this in 8-12 months because of how quickly prices fall.
Three Leading Sectors To Watch Transports, Industrials, Small-Cap Stocks
The transportation sector refers to the transportation of goods or customers using major and regional airlines, railroads, shipping firms, ocean freight haulers, trucking, etc… It is these companies that see a slow down in the economy before almost everyone else as less shipping is required when sales slow or the economy is tightening using less food, fuel, or buying things in general.
The second sector is industrials. This works much like the transportation sector.
Last but not least is the Russell 2ooo small-cap stock index. These small and volatile stocks are the first to show signs that traders and investors are tightening their risk-reward ratios because they feel the stock market is overpriced and that a bear market could be near, and the last type of stock you want to own during a bear market are small-cap stocks.
2016 – 2019 Custom Chart of Three SectorsTrans (IYT) + Industrials (XLI) + Russell (IWM) / 3
The chart below shows the recent and current day price action of these three leading sectors. Notice the long multi-year rally into the high of 2018 followed by the sharp distribution selling that warns the big money players unloaded their positions in these leading and leveraged sectors.
The 2019 rally has been strong but when you look at the big picture, the price is far from its 2018 highs and the price pattern is bearish (it points to lower prices) from a technical analysis standpoint.
2004 – 2008 Custom Chart of Three Sectors
The last bull market looks nearly identical in terms of the run-up in price, the top in 2007, and the distribution sell-off in these sectors. The 2008 rally was strong as well, but far from the 2007 highs as well.
What I want you to notice is the fact that these charts have moved nearly the same. Just like I mentioned earlier how bear markets price patterns repeat, so do bull market price patterns. The 2009 price action and 2019 price action are nearly identical and when you see the next chart you will see why the financial market is scary close to the next crisis/bear market.
Bases on the 2008 weekly chart below the US stock market could be literally 2-6 weeks away from collapsing. What makes this even scarier is that the market liquidity is the worst its been in my 23 years of trading meaning when the selling starts we will likely see some sort of flash crash as we saw in 2008, 2015, and 2018. Price drops so quickly by the time you figure out what you want to do and get your money properly positioned most of the move is already completed.
Eye Opening Gold Miners Charts and Analysis from 2008-09
There are several other really intriguing things happening that further confirm this analysis like how gold miners are outperforming US stocks, the gold : silver ratio above 85, the presidential cycle, the decade cycle and many more. It was actually all these other things that made me review these leading sectors here today. I’ll touch on these other topics in the next few articles later this week
The chart below shows you what the stock market and gold miners did just before the bull market topped and what they did after. Be aware, if you’re a gold bug you may not like this chart but you can’t argue with the truth of what miners did during the bear market and other bear markets for that matter.
See my updated chart showing where gold miners and the stock market is as of today within this cycle: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/next-bull-and-bear-markets-are-now-set-up/
Concluding Thoughts:
In short, the bear market has been a long time coming, but finally, almost all the signs are showing that it’s about to start. As a technical analyst since 1997 having lost a fortune and making a fortune from bull and bear markets I have a good understanding of how to best attack the market during its various stages. Stay Tuned for Part II
Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter. You won’t want to miss this big move, folks. As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months – most traders/investors have simply not been looking for it.
Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar Shipped To You Free.
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
I’M GIVING AWAY – FREE GOLD & SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIPS
So kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get yourFREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through thenext metalsbull market and financial crisis!
Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/130.png581931adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-07-16 19:11:232019-07-16 19:11:23Financial Crisis Bear Market Is Scary Close
With earnings data starting to hit the markets and recent news that China’s economic activity levels shrank to levels not seen in nearly 30 years, we believe our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is showing us a target level in the NASDAQ (NQ) that will likely be reached within the next 7 to 10 days. We believe once this target level is reached, the US stock market will immediately begin an extended topping formation with sideways price action and increased volatility) which will culminate in our August 19, 2019 setup date for a much deeper price correction.
At this time, traders should start to prepare for this topping event and prepare for price resistance to be found as the NQ nears this 8031 level – only 60 pts away. If you are sitting on a bunch of profitable long trades, our suggestion would be to scale back 50% to 60% of these open positions and prepare for a top setup to begin within 7 to 10 days. The volatility we expect to see over the next 30 days will likely be 2x or 3x current levels.
Nasdaq Daily Chart
This Daily NQ chart highlights the Fib Target Resistance level and shows our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system’s current downside price targets (7760, 7400 and 7265). These downside price target will change as the new price peak is established near the 8031 price level.
Nasdaq Weekly Chart
This NQ weekly chart highlights the same suggested resistance level (the YELLOW LINE drawn near the recent highs) and highlights deeper Weekly Fibonacci downside price targets near 6950, 6000 and 5950.
Our expectations are that economic weakness and price rotation will set up and begin a downside price move on or near August 19, 2019, based on our cycle research. We believe this move will initially target a -6 to -9% downside price move, then extend into a much deeper price decline ending near the start of 2020 or within Q1 of 2020.
Our researchers believe traders should be actively scaling back existing long positions in preparation for this top setup. Key psychological levels have already been reached and the minute the NQ breaks above 8000, the key Fibonacci target level and the key psychological level (8000) become critical elements for the market top formation.
Now is the time to plan and prepare for these incredible price swings in the markets. The next 18-24 months are certain to present technical traders with countless opportunities for success with these bigger price moves.
Our recent calls in the markets have resulted in over 42% in total gains over the past 60 days. Isn’t it time you learned how www.TheTechnicalTraders.com can help you find and time better trades?
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/125.png470850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-07-15 21:59:362019-07-15 21:59:36NQ Should Reach 8031 Before Topping
I believe the outcome of the past 6+ months with regards to global trade, currency devaluations, and consumer sentiment will result in weaker US earnings in Q2 than at any time over the past 3+ years. We believe US stocks, after recently breaching key psychological price levels ($300 SPY and $3000 ES) are poised to set up a sideways Pennant price pattern formation headed into a key price breakdown near the middle of August 2019.
Our cycle indicator tools and predictive modeling suggests that August 19, 2019, is the date to watch out for and after that date, we believe the US and global stock markets may begin a new downward price phase that could lead to a dramatic price decline. Read our August 19 Top warning here
This week I will share a report showing some really interesting charts rm a very different point of view that signal a larger correction is coming based on some leading sectors and proprietary analysis. You can get this report by joining my free newsletter located at the bottom of my Current Index Trade Signal Page here.
Earning Season Expectations For This Week
Early this week, July 15 through July 19, a total of 173 companies will be reporting earnings – including a number of very large firms such as Bank Of America (BAC), Alcoa (AA), US Bancorp (USB), IBM, Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK), E-Bay (EBAY), Netflix (NFLX), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Citigroup (C), United Airlines (UAL), JP Morgan Chase & Co (JPM), Wells Fargo & Co (WFC) and others. The mix of reporting firms this week includes financial, consumer, basic materials, healthcare, home builders and many others.
If anything has disrupted these industries over the past 3+ months it has been the shock to the markets related to the October 2018 to December 2018 US stock market price collapse and the continuing trade wars/issues with China. It is our opinion that these trade wars and pricing disruptions have resulted in a much more difficult environment for certain US and foreign nations to achieve Q2 expectations. Thus, we are planning for a few interesting surprises over the next 10 to 15+ days.
Next week, July 22 through July 26, a total of 659 companies will be reporting earnings. We believe the bulk of these earnings reports will provide increased US and global market price volatility and could actually present a number of surprise results (both positive and negative).
The Nasdaq website reported this article on June 17, 2019, which we found interesting.
Expectations for Q2 2019, and to be quite honest – the rest of 2019, is overall quite negative from this article. We believe the US markets will still be the top-performing global stock market because of the strength of the US economy and dynamic foundation of growth and opportunity going forward 2 to 4+ years. But we are very concerned that the second half of 2019 stock market correction is about to hit and shock traders with a -15% to -20% (or more) price collapse initiated by the recent psychological price levels being breached and the Q2 earnings data that could shock the global markets.
From the Nasdaq article, Zacks Sector analysis for Q2 vs. Q1 2019 shows concern in a number of sectors while Consumer Discretionary and Retail/Wholesale shows Revenues increase and Margins fall. Overall, it is quite distressing to see these expectations when one considers the strong economic data being released recently.
(Source)
The computer and technology sector seems uniquely poised for a very rough year based on Zachs expectations. Overall, Q1 2019 earnings expectations were -6.7%, Q2 2019 earnings expectations are -11.5% and Q3 earnings expectations are -11.5%. This does not look like a very positive set of data for the rest of this year and we believe this is where the real risk of a US stock market price collapse resides.
Months ago, we warned that a July 2019 market top is setting up and that we believed the US stock market would rotate much lower after a peak in July setup. About 45 days ago, we adjusted our expectations to suggest that this top would likely form in August or early September based on our predictive modeling system output and our cycle tools. We’ve honed the date down to August 19, 2019 (+/- 5 days) as the date that we believe the US stock market will TOP and/or initiate a new downside price move from this date.
You can see from the chart, below, that we believe the current price top may actually be near the highest point reached over the next 30+ days. We believe earnings data will change the dynamics of price activity and increase volatility over the next 2 to 3 weeks. Setting up a sideways Pennant price formation as the global markets and investors digest this new economic data. Ultimately, a price breakdown is likely (a price revaluation event) that will allow for continued upside price growth in the future.
This Daily DJI chart highlights our expectations and highlights our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs that suggest the true price top formation will happen sometime near August 19, 2019. We believe this date is critical and that price could begin a very quick and dramatic downside price move near this date based on the data we are expecting to see from Q2 earnings.
We urge traders to plan and prepare for this potential setup by reducing risk in long positions and preparing for a potential downside price move that could be related to global market concerns, Q2 earnings data and continued global trade/economic issues.
Overall, once this price revaluation event is completed, much like the event in Oct~Dec 2018 and the event in May 2019, the US stock market will very likely resume the upward price bias/trend and continue to attempt to establish new all-time price highs into 2020 and beyond.
Price rotations, like the one we are suggesting, may happen after August 19, 2019, are very healthy for the markets. These types of moves allow price to establish support and resistance levels, revalue assets, shake out certain biases and provide for future price moves/trends.
Be prepared. The data may result in a very big increase in volatility over the next 10~15+ days and this could result in a very dramatic price correction setting up as we’ve suggested. Learn how our research team can help you stay ahead of these bigger market moves and find incredible trading opportunities as these big moves take place.
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these supercycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
I urge you to visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.
Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/122.png543850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-07-15 21:22:192019-07-15 21:22:19Earnings may surprise the stock market – Watch Out!
Our cycle and predictive modeling solutions have been suggesting that Mid-August 2019 will likely prompt a major inflection point in the US stock markets and we have been attempting to warn our followers about this for months. Our continued efforts to identify this big breakdown price move in term of timing and expected range have led us to believe the outcome could be at least a -10% to -13% downside price collapse – possibly larger.
Post 1:NEXT BULL AND BEAR MARKETS ARE NOW SET UP Post 2: TECHNICALS SHOWS AUG/SEPT MARKET TOP PATTERN SHOULD FORM
Our research team now believes that August 19 (+/- 5 days) will likely be the critical price inflection point/price apex that we have been searching for. Our cycle and other predictive modeling tools are suggesting that this date will become critical for the markets future price trends and current support/resistance levels. We believe that some type of new event or price event will take place sometime between August 14 and August 19 and that this event will lead to a new bearish price trend setup to break current support levels as well as begin a downside price move that should attempt a minim of -10% to -13% before attempting to find support.
Volatility Index Signaling Selloff
This VIX Weekly chart highlights our expectations with regards future VIX activity and the initiation of the VIX SPIKE that will coincide with our expectations of a price collapse in the US stock market. We believe the VIX level will continue to move moderately higher over the next two to three weeks before the August 19 date – possibly as high as 16 to 18. We believe the VIX will begin the spike move from levels near 14 to 16 (just before August 19).
Transportation Index Underperforming = Bear Market
This TRAN weekly chart clearly shows the Pennant formation (BLUE LINES) and the critical price support channel (Upward sloping RED LINE) that we believe are critical to the future outcome of this breakdown price move setup happening on August 19, 2019.
First, the price must attempt to reach the Apex of the Pennant formation, then attempt a breakout/breakdown move. We believe the breakdown move is the higher probability outcome of this Pennant formation based on technical and price pattern details.
Once the breakdown move begins, price support near the price channel (RED LINE) will become critical as a future support level. If that level is broken, then we believe the TRAN may attempt to fall to levels near the middle of the Standard Deviation price channel range – near $4000.
Dow Jones Industrial Average At Inflection Point
This DIA Weekly chart shows a similar price pattern, although the Pennant formation is a bit harder to see. The Pennant formation on this DIA chart is set up across the Double Top price level, near $269.50, and the upward sloping price channel line (RED LINE). The 2018 deep price low sets up “leg 1” and we believe we have completed “leg 4” of this Pennant formation already. This leads us to believe the Double Top formation in conjunction with our other research components suggests the markets are currently setting up for a sideways/rounded top formation over the next 20 to 30+ days before beginning a moderate breakdown price move headed into August 19, 2019.
We believe there is a strong possibility that the key psychological levels ($300 SPY, $3000 ES and $30k INDU) are likely to be breached throughout this Q2 earnings season. We believe that key psychological price level may be the “trigger point” for an immediate price reversal and the beginning of the setup for our expected August 19 price collapse.
Trend and Trading Conclusion:
We urge traders to understand the risks that are currently prevalent in the markets as prices continue to trade near all-time highs. Our suggestion would be to pull 40% to 60% off the top right now (or at least before early August) in preparation for this next price rotation.
Watch the US Dollar, Gold, Oil and the Transportation Index for signs of weakness that may erode price support before the August 19th date.
Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter. You won’t want to miss this big move, folks. As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months – most traders/investors have simply not been looking for it.
Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar Shipped To You Free.
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
I’M GIVING AWAY – FREE GOLD & SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIPS
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/116.png521850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-07-15 16:58:272019-07-15 16:58:27Mid-August Is A Critical Turning Point For US Stocks
Chris Vermeulen had been calling for a gold breakout for a number of months. Some FSN Members snarkily doubted his call. However, they’re not doubting him any longer, what with gold breaking resistance and now hovering near $1400 the ounce. Chris oil call was also remarkably on the money, with oil crashing to the low $50’s from the mid $60’s. Chris is calling for silver to soon join the fun and then it will be off to the races.
Click Here to Listen to the Audio
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Kerry-Lutz.png277282adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-07-12 13:02:122019-07-12 13:02:12Right on the Gold Bull Market
Our researchers rely on a number of proprietary tools and cycle forecasting technology. Additionally, we use custom index charts to help measure price cycles, trends, support & resistance and many other aspects of the markets. Recently, we posted an article relating to the US Dollar and foreign currencies using custom index techniques. In the past, we’ve highlighted our Custom Price Cycle index that we use to gauge market sentiment, topping and bottoming setups. All of these tools are essential for our team of researchers while they attempt to identify trade setups and larger market events.
Currently, we are highlighting a number of our custom index chart that suggest a market top may only be 3 to 5 weeks away and the setup of this market top may surprise many traders. We posted a good forecast chart here also.
First, we’ll highlight our Smart Money Custom Index chart on a Monthly charting basis. As you can see since the ultimate price bottom in 2009, and using the price range from 2015 to 2016 (the rotation prior to the 2016 Presidential Elections) as the basis for the forward envelope, our Smart Money index shows the markets have rallied to levels just above the envelope in January 2018, then rotated lower to levels near the lower envelope levels in December 2018. This extended price rotation suggests the entire year of 2018 prompted a massive price rotation event that likely resulted in a price revaluation cycle.
Our researchers believe the strength of the US Dollar will continue to drive foreign investments into the US stock market and prompt a rally to levels near the middle of this price envelope before stalling and topping in August or September of 2019. This top formation should result in a price decline in the US stock market of at least 16% with a maximum decline level of somewhere between 24% to 28% overall. We’ll get into more detail about that later in this article.
We want our readers to understand this Custom Price Cycle chart highlights the level at which the price bottom will likely form, near the lower level of the current price envelope, and suggests the current price rally will likely attempt to breach key psychological price levels ($300: SPY, $3000: ES, $30k: INDU) before this new price top completes.
After these new price highs are reached above the key psychological price levels, we believe the new price top will immediately begin to form with a short period of sideways price action, then a price decline back below these psychological levels and likely initiating a downward price decline of at least 11 to 13%. It is our opinion that this downward price decline in the US stock market will align with increased global market weakness and currency devaluations that are likely to be much greater in scale and scope than the US stock market price decline.
We believe the US Dollar will continue to stay strong while staying above $95~96 throughout most of this price decline. We believe the strength in the US Dollar may be a catalyst for the future global market price declines and may also play out in future activities in precious metals and commodities.
The strength of the US Dollar, while foreign markets are contracting, would present a very ominous event as debt, credit and future operational standards of many foreign corporations, nations, governments, and consumers could come under severe pressures.
This Custom Price Cycle chart, below, highlights the current price setup of the US stock market in relation to previous high and low points. The closer we come to the upper price channel, the more likely we are to see price setup and seek out a price top formation. Although, history has shown that price can move up to these upper levels and continue to trend in an upward price channel for many weeks and months. So, at some point in the future, we would expect to see this Custom Price Cycle chart revert back to 2017 type price activity where price continually attempts to stay near the upper price channel levels with very mild price rotations.
Currently, though, we believe the US stock market is only 3 to 5 weeks away from a major price topping formation and that the downside price move will likely result in a, roughly, -16% to -25% downside price rotation before the end of 2019. We believe US earnings will push this Custom Price Cycle chart to levels near or above the upper price channel level and that will drive the US Dollar higher as well as a shift in capital deployment prior to the end of September. The shift will be away from technology and mid-caps and into the safety of cash, metals and large-cap equities.
This shift in capital investments will likely transpire over many weeks before a serious price breakdown begins. In other words, we expect a top formation to setup somewhere between August 15 and September 16. This top formation will likely result in 3~6 weeks of sideways downward pricing pressure before a larger price breakdown happens. We believe the larger price breakdown will coincide with some external economic event and result in a migration of capital away from risk and into cash/metals/safety. Right now, our estimate is that this external economic event may be a currency devaluation event (Asian currencies breaking down and putting pressure throughout Europe and the rest of the developing world).
It is very likely that some issue related to the US/China trade deal prompts this currency devaluation move or that some extended credit/debt crisis event becomes more evident to investors. We believe the Asian currencies are particularly at risk for this event and that European and development market currencies will likely collapse as a result of the Asian/European currency price declines.
The US technology sector could be uniquely vulnerable should this event unfold as we suspect. Foreign markets and investor are heavily invested in the US technology sector. Many of these investors have moved their capital into the US Technology sector to avoid risks related to their home country’s currencies and to take advantage of the US Dollar strength. A decline in the US stock market, of any level greater than 10%, could send a shock-wave through the global markets and cause investors to shift away from risk and into safety.
Expect to see the volatility index to start rising and for the price of options to jump as well. I posted this VIX chart and cycle analysis a couple of days ago and its good for another few weeks in terms of its direction.
IN CONCLUSION:
Our researchers believe we are only a few weeks away from this event and those Q2 US earnings will push the US stock market above these psychological price levels. It is this event, the push above the key psychological price levels ($ 300: SPY, $ 3000: ES, $ 30k: INDU) that will likely trigger the topping event and set off a chain reaction event that we have described.
Pay very close attention to how the foreign currency market reacts over this time-span and pay very close attention to Gold/Silver and the US Dollar. We believe this topping price formation is going to unfold just as we are suggesting and we believe this will be an incredible opportunity for skilled technical traders.
We’ll keep you informed as this plays out with Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar Shipped To You!
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
IM GIVING THEM AWAY WITH 2-YEAR MEMBERSHIPS
So kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for one or two years to get your FREE BULLION and enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!SUBSCRIBE -> GET FREE BULLION -> GET WINNING TRADES
Chris Vermeulen – Technical Traders Ltd
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/110.png508850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-07-11 12:38:022019-07-11 12:38:02Major Index Top In 3 to 5 Weeks?
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/HoweStreet.png251400adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-07-11 10:33:322019-07-11 10:33:32Gold, Platinum, Palladium – HoweStreet Radio Show
Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive price modeling system is suggesting Crude Oil will likely continue to find resistance near $64 as a price ceiling and trend lower over the next 3 to 5 months – eventually breaking below the $40 price level near the end of 2019 or in early 2020.
Our research team believes this move could very well be contingent on a continued decline in global economic activity as well as our research suggesting that global currencies could be setting up for a breakdown event.
The USA and FED will do everything in their powers to keep the economy looking strong and to hold markets up like talking about rate cuts, but eventually the music will stop, but until then we need to be long and strong stocks and keep a close eye on leading indicators like small caps, oil, transportation and industrial sectors for early warning signs.
Please read the following research posts for more information:
Report #1: PART III – DEBT CRISIS TO BE REBORN IN 2020
Report #2: KING DOLLAR RIDES HIGHER CREATING PRESSURES ON FOREIGN ECONOMIES
Report #3: FEAR DRIVES MARKET EXPECTATIONS
We believe the breakdown in support for Crude Oil will coincide with a general perception of global economic weakness, foreign Central Bank posturing and the possibility that foreign currency weakness may push global demand for Oil much lower than current expectations.
The volatility increased suggested near the right side of this chart, in late 2019 and early 2020, are indicative of oil prices reaching a critical support level while attempting to re-balance supply/demand-side economic factors against historic price lows. This will likely become a period where global oil traders feel the need to try to push oil prices higher while supply/demand factors settle to establish a basis price level for future price trends.
IN CONCLUSION:
If our ADL predictive modeling is correct, we will see rotation between $47 and $64 over the next 3+ months before a breakdown in price hits in November 2019. This will be followed by two fairly narrow price range months (December 2019 and January 2020) where oil prices will tighten near $45 to $50. After that tightening, we believe an extremely volatile price move will happen in February through April 2020 that could see oil prices trade as low as $22 and as high as $51 over a two to three-month span.
As we’ve continued to state, 2019 and 2020 are going to include incredible opportunities for skilled technical traders and investors. Think about how a more like this in Oil and the global markets will reflect into the precious metals markets and the US Dollar?
Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter. You won’t want to miss this big move, folks. As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months – most traders/investors have simply not been looking for it.
Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar Shipped To You Free.
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
I’M GIVING THIS GOLD BAR AWAY WITH 2-YEAR MEMBERSHIPSAND 1OZ SILVER ROUND TO 1 YEAR SUBSCRIBERS
Almost counter to current institutional thinking, the strength in the US Dollar will likely continue to push the US stock market higher over the next few weeks/months and act as a supporting price bias in any event of a short term global/us stock market price collapse. Many traders/investors fail to understand the capacity of the US Dollar to wreak havoc on foreign markets as well as to act as a support level for US equities and US investments.
The support level near $96 is currently acting as a solid price floor. Our researchers believe an attempt to breach the $99 level will happen soon and this continued strength will put further pressures on foreign currencies, commodities, metals and trade issues.
These shifting dynamics of the currency markets are presenting very clear evidence that investors believe stronger, more mature economies are going to continue to perform over the future months that weaker, more at-risk economies. The Japanese Yen, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and US Dollar are all performing quite well in this Year-To-Date comparison graph (below). The New Zealand Dollar, Euro, British Pound, and Australian Dollar are all dramatically weaker.
Our research team put this comparison chart together to further illustrate the weakness of Asian currencies in relation to the relative strength of the US and major global currencies. This chart attempt to compare currency strength by grouping relative currency pairs and comparing them as an Asian Currency Group vs a Global Major Currency Group. As price advances, the Asian Currency Group is relatively stronger overall. As price declines, the Asian Currency Group is weakening and the Global Major Currency Group is strengthening.
Currently, this chart shows the fragility of the Asian Currency Group. Any break of the lower price channel level and we enter a new downside price trend that may attempt to establish a much lower price support channel for Asian Currencies, Asian Stock Markets, and the overall global markets.
Our researchers believe the continued strength of the US Dollar and the US stock market are pushing historical normal price ranges beyond expected boundaries. As gold increases because of fear and greed, countries with larger gold reserves can attempt to offset certain losses from currency and economic weakness. Yet companies and governments that attempted to leverage the “Dollar Carry Trade” environment from years ago may find themselves in very dangerous territory as Asian currencies continue to weaken.
A stronger US Dollar will attempt to mute the upside price activity of Gold and Silver while pushing these currencies into deeper and deeper valuation declines. See our recent charts and short term dollar/gold forecast here. A continued shifting of capital away from “at-risk” economies/nations could push these currencies into a death spiral type of free-fall over time.
We believe the US Dollar will continue to move moderately higher over the next 4+ weeks and likely attempt to move towards the $99 price level. This move will somewhat mute the advance of Gold and Silver, yet we believe the weakness that is likely to unfold in the foreign currency markets will prompt renewed fear and greed – pushing Gold prices much higher – even as the US Dollar continues to strengthen.
Once the XAUUSD level breaks the $1440 level – it should rally up to the $1615 to $1625 level very quickly. This would likely be the breaking point for the Asian currencies as well. A move like that would likely push these Asian currencies below historical price envelopes and create a panic-type of a capital shift away from risk.
Our research team believes this move will likely happen sometime between Mid-August and early September 2019. This means we are only about 35 to 45 days away from an incredibly volatile price swing in the global markets. This is something that most traders/investors have failed to even begin to comprehend or consider.
What would happen if the Asian capital markets and currencies collapsed on broad weakness and a major credit/debt crisis event? An event where currencies devalue to a level that suggests forward operations are severely threatened, the rising price of Gold is not offsetting losses and commodity prices collapse pushing even further pressures on commodity/currency backed loans/debt?
Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter. You won’t want to miss this big move, folks. As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months – most traders/investors have simply not been looking for it.
Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar Shipped To You Free.
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
I’M GIVING THIS GOLD BAR AWAY WITH 2-YEAR MEMBERSHIPSAND 1OZ SILVER ROUND TO 1 YEAR SUBSCRIBERS
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/104.png508850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-07-09 12:05:442019-07-09 12:05:44US Dollar Strength Will Drive Markets Higher
