Our August 19th breakdown prediction aligns with our other analysis tools and predictive modeling systems. The key to understanding price action lies in two modes of operational aspects for analysts. Either the analysis is going to be correct and the markets will break down as we have predicted or the analysis will be incorrect and the markets will break higher to rally to new highs. We call this the “failure to fail” mode or the “failure to succeed” mode of compliance for price. Either it will do what we expect or it won’t.
There are a few things that we, as analysts, must take into consideration with regards to future predictions of price action and direction. First, sometimes we fail to make perfect predictions. It is not easy or 100% guaranteed that our predictions will become valid or accurate on the day we suggest price should move in a certain direction.
We are going to show you the ADL charts that support our predictions and we are going to discuss why we believe the setup is still valid, but we are going to have to let price confirm our prediction and wait for it to move in a direction that either confirms our research or invalidates it.
As many of you know, we use advanced tools to help us understand and predictions regarding future price moves. Many of our tools align with price cycles, predictive modeling, and other price modeling tools that we use to try to understand where and when the price may turn or continue to trend in a specific direction.
One of our most advanced tools is the Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling tool. With it, we can ask the ADL tool to show us what price will attempt to do in the future based on a type of DNA candlestick mapping that attempts to isolate the highest probability outcomes.
Weekly NQ Futures Index Chart
Below, we’ve included a Weekly NQ ADL chart that shows you what our ADL predictive modeling system it expecting the NQ price to do over the next 10+ weeks. You can see from this chart that price is expected to trail lower from current levels and to potentially reach a low point of 6500 by early October 2019.
One other aspect that we must consider is that price can sometimes react 2-5 weeks later than the ADL predictive price levels show. We call these Price Anomalies. This is where price sets up an unusual price formation that is actually moving against the ADL predictive price level (in this case, staying higher while the ADL predictive price level moves lower).
We determine these to be price anomalies because, in most cases, the price will eventually break toward the ADL predictive price level in a reversion move. Therefore, these anomalies can sometimes be very good trading signals as price moves against the ADL predicted trend.
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VIX Weekly Chart
The ADL of the VIX Weekly chart shows a spike in the VIX levels over the next 3 to 7+ weeks. This spike will likely coincide with a downward price move in the US markets that could begin as early as early September 2019.
The purpose of this ADL VIX Chart is to show you how our ADL modeling system is able to warn us of future price moves and how we can align certain analysis results with other charts to form a larger perspective of the markets in general.
Concluding Thoughts:
As of right now, the August 19th breakdown prediction we shared more than a month ago still stands as the price has yet to rally above 8050 on the NQ to present a new upside price trend. Our ADL predictive modeling system is still suggesting that the price wants to move lower from current levels and attempt to target the 6500 price level.
Even though the exact August 19th date did not result in a price breakdown event, you must understand we were calling for a breakdown to happen “on or near August 19”. That means sometime this week or next week most likely – possibly a bit later if the price anomaly of the stock indexes holding up at the upper end of our ADL price range.
If you’ve followed our research long enough you’ll understand that we can make these predictions about the future based on our advanced predictive modeling tools and research – yet we can’t be 100% accurate on the date/time of the event because we don’t have the ability to see that much detail or control what the global markets do in terms of price, trends, global central banks, and other factors. We can only relate what we see in the markets using our modeling tools and attempt to help you understand what our predictive modeling systems are suggesting.
Right now, a price anomaly where the price is trading above our expected price prediction level appears to be set up which will likely result in a price breakdown in the near future (3 to 10+ days). Time will tell. If price rallies because of some external factor and breaks the 8050 highs on the NQ, then we would consider the ADL predictive analysis result to potentially be invalidated because of this new high. Currently, that is not the case and we are waiting for the breakdown event to begin and will position our money accordingly when price confirms the move.
If you like this big-picture analysis and forecasts be sure to opt-in to my free market research newsletter or let me send you my low-risk index ETF trade signals plus my analysis with my Wealth Building Trading Newsletter.
Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/102.png6071024adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-23 23:34:112019-08-23 23:34:11The August Stock market Breakdown Prediction and Analysis
So, the reality is that based on our modeling system and our research, there are only two ways that the US Fed (and likely the global central banks) can navigate out of this inflation killing debt glut that has sunk the global markets into a quicksand-like economic malaise; either A. reduce debts dramatically across the board (all nations) in an attempt to allow for some level of future growth/inflation opportunity, or B. find a way to push GDP out levels to 2x (or higher) that of current debt levels. A is much more difficult to negotiate and navigate – but it may be an option sometime in the future. B is the more likely option with a transition into some type of new 21st-century economic model that assists in advancing the build-it, sell-it model.
In the last, Part II, a section of our research, we showed you a chart of our US Fed modeling system and where we believe the US Fed should be targeting rates currently. The one thing that was a bit different than our original model, created in 2013, was the election of President Trump and the EU, US/China trade wars. This could complicate things a bit in the future, but overall the model continues to perform well.
Our research suggests that given current global market factors, we are looking at a very narrow pricing structure for US fed rates that are completely dependent on consumer activities (consumer optimism and activity, perception of the economic opportunities and supply/demand price equilibrium). Which is why we believe the next 15+ months could be very interesting for global traders and consumers.
We use a simple tool to track the levels and scope of the changing markets in various areas of the US and have noticed a dramatic increase in the numbers of Foreclosures and Pre-Foreclosures in various prime markets over the past 12+ months. Take a look at some of these maps.
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In each one of these maps, there are more than 500+ current active Foreclosures and/or Pre-Foreclosure listing. These are prime real estate areas like Los Angeles/Hollywood, CA, New York City, NY, San Francisco, CA, Phoenix, AZ, Chicago, IL and Newark, NJ. Either the market is changing or the consumer is changing because affordability is sky-high.
The law of supply and demand dictates that when the price gets too high and affordability is beyond the scope of the average buyer, then price MUST fall to levels that support healthy buyers and re-balance the marketplace. This type of price reversion has happened many times in the past, but this time we believe the US Fed may just let the dust settle and allow these foreclosures to funnel through the traditional channels (banks and financial institutions.
We do believe the US Fed is slightly behind the curve in terms of rate levels and actions. The Fed waited till 2016 to begin raising rates when our model suggested rates should have been raised in 2013. Additionally, the Fed raised rates above the 2.25% upper boundary of our modeling system. The Fed recently began to decrease rates from the 2.5% level which we agree with. The Fed target should be between 1.5% to 2.0% at this point and levels should fluctuate up and down within this range for the next 4+ years – gradually settling near 1.25% near 2024.
Again, there are only two outcomes that can dramatically alter the path without our modeling system – dramatic debt reduction or dramatic GDP increases. Possibly, we may see a combination of both of these over the next 10+ years, but our belief is that the US Fed is trapped in a low growth, mild inflationary mode waiting for GDP to increase while attempt to PRAY that no asset bubble pops. The reality is that bubble will pop and price levels will revert to find “true value” before any real GDP increases begin to take form.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
It’s going to be an interesting 10+ years, folks. Get ready for some really big price swings in almost all the global markets and various sectors.
Real Estate has already run through the price advance cycle and the price maturity cycle. There is really only one cycle left to unfold at this point which is the “price revaluation cycle”. This is where the opportunity lies with select real estate ETFs which we are keeping my eye on to profit from falling real estate prices.
I can tell you that huge moves are starting to folding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these supercycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
I urge you to visit my ETF Wealth Building Trading Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.
Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/90.png588850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-23 00:04:172019-08-23 00:04:17Part III – Is the Fed Too Late Prevent A Housing Market Decline?
Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders shares his thoughts on why this week is important for the US markets, gold, and oil. All of these are near strong support or resistance levels where if a break happens could result in an extended run. We breakdown the scenario for each market and level that are most important.
I can tell you that huge moves are starting to folding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these supercycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
I urge you to visit my ETF Wealth Building Trading Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.
Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Chris-and-Other-Guy.png220266adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-21 21:31:102019-08-21 21:31:10THIS IS A KEY WEEK FOR US MARKETS, GOLD, AND OIL
In Part I of this research, we highlighted the Case-Shiller index of home affordability and how it relates to the US real estate market and consumer economic activity going forward. We warned that once consumers start to shift away from an optimistic view of the economy, they typically shift into a protectionist stance where they attempt to protect wealth, assets and risk of loss while attempting to weather the economic storm.
We’ve seen this happen in 2008-09 as well as after the 9/11 attacks in the US in 2001. The process is always somewhat similar. Consumers start to react to pricing levels that are unaffordable and do so by trying to skimp on extraneous purchases like travel, new cars, credit card debt or other items that are not essential. The other thing that happens is that the lower tier borrowers (the “at-risk borrowers”) typically begin to become delinquent on debts and fall behind on their mortgage payments. This is how the process starts.
Once it starts, a shift takes place in the market that can be sudden or it can be transitional. The shift is often termed as a change from a “Seller’s Market” to a “Buyer’s Market”. This terminology is used to describe who is in control of the transaction and who has the advantage within the transaction. When it is a “Seller’s Market”, buyers are typically offering to pay MORE for an item/home and the seller does not have to stress about trying to sell their property/items. When it is a “Buyer’s Market”, the buyer is able to negotiate with the seller, demanding more concessions, lower prices, better deals and often has a wide variety of sellers wanting to court the buyer away from other property/items. See how this shift in market dynamics can really change the way a marketplace works.
Now, lets take a look at how the US consumer is doing, overall, and how it might reflect a change in the marketplace if certain fundamental change.
This chart of the delinquency rates for All Loans and Leases in the US shows an increase in the levels of delinquencies starting near the 2016 year. This aligns with the year that the US Fed began raising the Fed Funds Rate and is exactly 1 year after the Chinese initiated capital controls to attempt to prevent local currency (Chinese Yuan) from leaving the country and landing in other countries as foreign assets. In 2015, the delinquency rate for All Loans and Leases was near 2004~05 levels (below 30,000). Right now, the level is above the 2008 level near 36,000.
Consumer Credit Card Delinquencies are rising sharply. Since 2016, the increase in sub-prime credit card delinquencies has skyrocketed above the peak levels of 2008-09 and continues to stay above 5.5%.
Meanwhile, those nasty Mortgage Backed Securities held outright are still massively higher than in 2008/09 based on this Fred data. We are unsure why the data is reported as ZERO in 2008, but we can safely assume that a $1.55 Trillion risk factor in these MBS levels is not something that we would consider a minor risk factor.
Now, in the first part of this article, we promised to show you some data from our proprietary Fed modeling utility and to show you what we use to determine if the US Fed is ahead of the curve or behind it. Here you go..
Our original research model of the US economy and the Fed Rate levels into the future are shown below. You can see that our model suggests the US Fed, as of 2013, should have been raising rates towards the 1.5% level then gradually raising them further towards 2.0% to 2.25% before 2017. This type of increase would have slowed the advance of the real estate price levels and moderated the expansion of the debt levels that are currently associated within this sector. Instead, the US Fed was late in their efforts to raise rates – starting only in late 2016.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
Based on our model, current rates should be dropping toward levels near 1.25% to 1.75% as US debt, GDP and population levels continue to increase. In the 4 years after the 2020 election, rates should stay below 2% as the US Fed is somewhat trapped until GDP increases dramatically. Our modeling system suggests there are only two ways the US Fed can attempt to raise rates above 2.5% in the future; a. the US GDP increases dramatically (increasing to levels more than 1.5x total US debt annually), or b. US debt is dramatically reduced while GDP continues to grow at moderate rates.
In the last part of this 3 part article series, we’ll show you more data that will allow you to prepare for the future events that may unfold and show you how to watch for some of these trigger events yourself.
If you are like me and have friends who know nothing about real estate like cops and techie programmers building spec homes and thinking its easy money, then you know the market is or has already topped. In fact, take a look at home sales month over month in Canada.
House Values Declining Month Over Month
Real Estate has already run through the price advance cycle and the price maturity cycle. There is really only one cycle left to unfold at this point which is the “price revaluation cycle”. This is where the opportunity lies with a select real estate ETF I am keeping my eye on to profit from falling real estate prices.
I can tell you that huge moves are starting to folding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these supercycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
I urge you to visit my ETF Wealth Building Trading Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.
Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/15.png431889adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-21 11:45:372019-08-21 11:45:37PART II – Fed Too Late To Prevent A Housing Market Crash?
Real Estate is one of the biggest purchases anyone will make in their lifetime. It can account for 30x to 300x one’s annual income and take over 30 years to pay off. After you’re done paying for your property, now you have to keep paying to maintain it and to support the property taxes to keep it. What has happened to the US Real Estate market since the 2008-09 global credit market collapse and is the US Fed behind the curve?
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
One of the most common indicators used to measure national housing affordability and price trend is the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. In this chart, we are displaying the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index – including all markets in the US. It is fairly easy to see that in last 2016, on a national level, the Case-Shiller index had reached the 2006 peak level. After that, the new Trump economy pushed it even higher where we now near 210. This is a very uncommon level for this index and because we are in uncharted territory with this 210 ranking, it should concern everyone that a reversion maybe somewhere in our future.
Fed Funds Rate data from early 1990 till now
The question we’ve been asking our research team is “Is the US Fed behind the curve in the markets and how will that translate into the US/Global equity markets?”
When we consider the recent Fed rate increases (starting in 2016), our research team compared these levels to a modeling system we build back in 2013. This modeling system suggests what the US Fed should have been doing based on certain GDP, Population and other factors. The chart below is the Current Fed Funds Rate data from early 1990 till now. The rise in valuation on the Case-Shiller index can almost be directly correlated to the amount of money available in the global markets and the US Fed rate levels. More money and lower interest rates mean everyone was stampeding into housing expecting it to increase in value (which it did). But what is next with the US Fed turning cautious recently?
US 30 Year Mortgage Rate
The US 30 Year Mortgage Rate has continued to rotate between 3.5% and 5% (on average). We all know these rates vary depending on the borrower’s credit rating and other factors. Yet we believe any rates above 4% (on average) are dangerous for the markets and once lenders start to tighten requirements for loans while sellers start to aggressively decrease their asking price in order to attract buyers, we could see a massive shift in the market within a matter of months, not years.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
The global markets are setting up for some type of event. Capital is being pulled out of the markets as investors/traders wait to see what happens with the US/China trade issues, the EU as well as the US Presidential election in November 2020. Many economists and researchers believe a recession is fast approaching and are waiting for any signs that it is starting.
Are the turmoils setting up in the global stock market about to fracture into the global real estate market as well? As investors and consumers engage in risk aversion processes, how will that result in continued economic activity in certain sectors of the global market? Could it be that we are about to experience an economic contraction/reversion event that many analysts have failed to comprehend?
In part II of this article, we’ll show you our US Fed proprietary modeling system’s data and show you why we believe something big is going to unfold over the next 3 to 5+ years. We’ll also highlight some very interesting data regarding the US real estate market that you should be preparing for right now.
Real Estate has already run through the price advance cycle and the price maturity cycle. There is really only one cycle left to unfold at this point – the “price revaluation cycle”. This is where the opportunity lies with a select real estate ETF I am keeping my eye on.
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these super cycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
I urge you to visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.
Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/3.png3951024adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-21 10:00:452019-08-21 10:00:45Fed Too Late To Prevent A Housing Market Crash?
Negative yields are becoming common for many of the world’s most mature economies. The process of extending negative yields within these economies suggests that safety is more important than returns and that central banks realize that growth and increases in GDP are more important than positive returns on capital. In the current economic environment, this suggests that global capital investors are seeking out alternative solutions to adequately develop longer-term opportunities and to develop native growth prospects that don’t currently exist.
Our research team has been researching this phenomenon and how it relates to the continued “capital shift” that is taking place throughout the globe. We believe we have some answers for anyone interested in our opinions. We also believe the longer-term answers will depend on what happens over the next 5 to 7 years throughout the globe and how economic expectations shift as well as how global debt is dealt with.
We urge all of our followers to read all of the segments of this research post about how the global central banks are pushing the envelope and have been for many years :
Aug 14, 2019:GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS MOVE TO KEEP THE PARTY ROLLING
Throughout our research, we referenced a number of current articles to determine our own outcomes and expectations. Some of the articles we used as reference are listed below.
Sources for some of our research:
Each of these resources helped to create a bigger picture of what we believe will likely happen and how the process may unfold. We’ll start by attempting to understand the core elements of the negative yield perspective and how/when it may change.
Negative yields are a result of expected economic malaise rooted in the understanding that GDP growth and economic output are relatively flat and not expected to rise. It comes down to the fact that if investors identified true growth opportunities in the major global economies, the yields for the debt instruments would reflect investor optimism (resulting in higher yields). Thus, the core element of the current global economic malaise is that the planet is transitioning from a very fragile 19th-century economic model into something new – we call it the 21st-century economic model.
This process will likely take an additional 10+ years to really begin to complete and may require many false starts as the world begins to understand exactly what is required to make this transition. Debt, as a process of engaging in economic activity, is something that is essential for some level of inflation, income, and the creation of future growth. Debt becomes a major issue when growth declines over extended periods of time resulting in a default risk for some nations/countries. Yet, as the human population continues to expand and global central banks continue to attempt to find the spark that will launch the new economic growth model, debt is essential to avoid economic contraction.
As we’ve hinted to, above, we believe the true answer is the transition away from 19th century economic structures that have resulted in massive risk factors (like unfunded pensions, unfunded state, and federal liabilities and massive global bank, investment banking and industrial level economic “black holes”) and to move towards true new world economic model. What that looks like is something we are considering at the moment and have a few ideas of.
Currently, there are a few new industries that show promise across the globe in terms of the new 21st-century economy and fledgling new industries.
_ Cannabis industry
_ Human Care Services Industry
_ Alternate housing Solutions
_ Eco-Sustainability Solutions
_ Fintech Wealth Creation Solutions
_ Social/Infrastructure Restoration Solutions
We believe the next 10+ years will become very fluid as traditional economic models are replaced with newer, more alternative, types of economic solutions that spark real growth industries and opportunities. We hope this process of transition initiates fairly quickly before any extended failure process takes place to start the reduction of capacity and resources that will be required for the rebuilding of the new 21st-century economy. Time will tell.
What this means for the rest of us is that we need to stay very focused on the fact that transitional asset shifts are very likely over the next 10+ years. The only time in history that we believe was similar to the current global economic environment was shortly after WWII. Global debts had skyrocketed and economic expectations throughout the planet were mild at best. Germany and most of Europe was beginning a rebuilding process while most of SE Asia and Japan were also attempting to rebuild and restructure after a brutal series of global wars. Much of the outside world was still in some form of an undeveloped economic structure at that time. For most of the developed world, the process of rebuilding and identifying real economic growth came nearly 20 years after the end of WWII – near the late 1950s and early 1960s as a type of Renaissance Era.
Given today’s world and how quickly things progress, we believe the process may take about 7 to 14 years to complete this time – depending on how quickly we are able to transition the global away from risks and systematic failures that are a result of clinging to failed 19th-century components.
It is our opinion that wild price rotations in a variety of global assets will plague the global markets over the next 7+ years as pools of capital are moved into and out of opportunities for returns and gains. We believe all of the world’s global markets are at risk for these very volatile rotations in price levels and that individual segments of the global markets will become targets for price declines and advances as capital attempts to force a “price discovery” process that seeks to identify true price values.
The process of true price discovery is convoluted with the steps of shaking off old expectations, risks, liabilities, falsehoods, and processes while attempting to identify real future value and executing the steps to transition these resources into renewed future expectations. It is almost like tearing down a structure in order to build something better and more efficient from the usable pieces of the old structure.
Our opinion is that skilled technical traders need to stay very fluid right now and to understand that broader risk factors are at play throughout the globe. Every major and minor economy on the planet will likely feel some aspect of the transition that is taking place within the global economy. We’ve highlighted a few charts, below, to show variations of risk as related to the trends that have taken place over the past 8+ years. Two of these charts shows a Pitchfork type of price channel. Once price breaks below these price channels, we enter a new territory of downward price trends that will begin the price discovery process.
This chart of the German DAX suggests the lower price trend channel is currently near $9300. As time progresses, that channel continues to rise. We would expect the $10,000 level to be a critical psychological level going forward.
This chart of the FSTE 100 shows a similar pattern where the lower price channel is near $5450 currently. As we progress further in time, that level continues to rise. We would suggest the $6000 will become critical for price support in the FTSE going forward.
The SPY sets up a similar pattern but shows more of our cycle and other research elements. The lower BLUE price channel, near $240, is our current price channel providing longer-term support. Below that level, we would fall back to the 2016 lows near $209.40.
Pay attention to what happens in the global markets over the next 6 to 18 months. The US Presidential election, Brexit and a host of other global issues are still playing out. We believe we are just starting this transition process and we believe now is the time for all skilled technical traders to fully understand that risks, price rotation, and true price discovery are very likely outcomes that may drive very wild price moves for many years into the future.
We urge all of our followers to read all of the segments of this research post about how the global central banks are pushing the envelope and have been for many years :
Aug 14, 2019: GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS MOVE TO KEEP THE PARTY ROLLING
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
In closing, sit back and think about all the opportunities that will be created over the next 7+ years if you are skilled enough to trade these massive price swings. Think about how the world will transition away from risk factors that continue to plague our future and towards something that will usher in a 50+ year run of opportunity and gains. If you are young enough to enjoy this run, now is the time you will want to find a solid team of people that can help you navigate this process and find success.
We are only halfway into August and we have already closed out 24.16% in gains from the falling SP500 using SDS, and the pop in gold using UGLD, and from the oversold bounce and rally in silver miners SIL.
We urge all of our followers to pay attention to our research, consider your options very closely and prepare for this next move by pulling some of your active portfolio away from risks and into more protective measures. This Crazy Ivan event is just 10 days away and we really want to urge all of our followers to not under-estimate this event cycle.
WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500
In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.
I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.
On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.
More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.
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Good morning, Lots of great analysis including Bitcoin today.
Executive Summary:
– Stocks set to gap higher and at short-term resistance. We will see if sellers jump back into the market and drive prices lower to fill the gap. Its Friday so if we have a weak close in price near the lows then Monday could be another huge sell-off.
– Bonds are trading a major long term resistance trend channel on the monthly chart. I would expect bonds to stall and pullback over the next few months. The video shows this very clearly.
– Metals are giving mixed signals and gold hit our key price target and resistance area yesterday for a quick 22% profit.
– Oil and natural gas are still in downtrends but not giving much insight at this time.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/TTT-VIDEO-LOGO.png480640adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-16 11:53:572019-08-16 11:53:57Today’s Stock, Metal, and Energy Forecasts – Aug 16 2019
As you can probably imagine, we’ve received a ton of emails and questions about our recent predictions for precious metals and the August 19 breakdown date in the global markets. It seems everyone is reading our research posts and is curious about how to prepare for these moves and how we came up with these predictions months in advance. In this second part of our metals & Aug 19 update post, we’ll try to highlight our expectations going into the weekend prior to the Aug 19 breakdown date (Monday).
In the first part of this research post, we highlighted what we believe is the imminent completion of the MID Leg 1 upside move in precious metals. Our research continues to suggest that we are still setting up a major LEG 1 upside move which should be considered a larger Elliot Wave structure. Within this Wave (Leg) 1 formation, a typical 5 wave structure is likely to continue forming. Currently, we are creating the Wave 3 of the total of 5 waves that will complete a finished upside Wave (Leg 1).
If our analysis is correct, the peak that ends Wave 1 could be well above $2000 for Gold and well above $24 to $28 for Silver. Then, of course, we’ll set up for a corrective Wave #2 before another, BIGGER, upside wave #3 sets up in precious metals.
Taking a look at this Weekly Silver chart, you may be able to see the waves as we see them.
_ The upside price move from Dec 14, 2015, to July 4, 2016 sets up the initial upside Wave 1 leg.
_ The low in November 2018 sets up the end of corrective wave B from the initial bottom on December 14, 2015.
_ This setup suggests we are currently starting a Wave 3 upside move which is usually 1.5x larger (or more) than Wave 1.
_ Keep in mind that we believe all of these “minor wave” formations are part of a much larger 5 wave structure that is setting up.
As you look at the Fibonacci diagram, above, remember that within each of those waves (1 through 5), a typical complex price wave formation (1, 3, 5, or other more complex wave formation) will set up to complete the broader wave formation. Therefore, as you review the chart below, keep in mind that we believe everything originating from the bottom on December 14, 2015, till now is still part of the WAVE 1 formation on that Elliot Wave chart. We are just getting started with this move, folks.
Silver Weekly Chart with Wave 1
The YELLOW arrows we’ve drawn on this Silver chart are our expectations for Silver over the next 6+ weeks and will potentially complete the initial upside minor wave 3 formation/ Leg 1. We do understand that Elliot Wave counting can be difficult to understand, but please allow use to preface this research by suggesting that every larger wave consists of smaller waves. And those smaller waves, consist of sets of even smaller waves. And so it continues all the way down to sub-one-minute charts. The point we’re trying to make is that the $21 endpoint on this chart is very likely just the end of Wave 1, subwave 3, impulse move C which may target a total of D moves before reaching the end of subwave 3. To put it in more simple terms, we are only about 20% into this upside move right now based on our expectations.
Why is the move in precious metals so important for our August 19 breakdown date prediction? Because we would expect precious metals to begin a massive price rally if the global stock markets were expecting some type of major downside rotational event. A more into metals is a safety play for global investors. If something is happening in the markets and fear becomes more evident, then precious metals should start to rally. This sets up an expectation that some type of price revaluation event is likely to take place in the near future.
Thus, the upside price moves in Gold and Silver align perfectly with our August 19 breakdown expectation. The key to this, in our opinion, is that Silver has really started to skyrocket on large volume. This creates “confluence” in the metals group that fear is now driving investors into the lesser Silver market in preparation for a price reversion move soon.
Weekly Transportation Index chart
This Transportation Index chart highlights the fact that investors believe the future 3 to 6 months in the global economy will be moderately slower and that transportation activity and revenues will likely continue to diminish. The Transportation Index is an excellent measure of future global economic expectations that can be used as a “general market indicator” for future expectations.
Dow Jones Weekly Chart
This YM Weekly chart highlights the key Fibonacci price trigger level that has setup near $26,170. This is the critical price level for the YM to actually generate a confirmed Bearish price trend (end of week closing bar price level) which may be the initial downside price trigger. As of the creation of this chart, the YM price was above this Fibonacci trigger level. But as of right now, the YM price is already below the Fibonacci trigger level and if the YM closes the week below this level, then we would have a new confirmed Bearish Fibonacci price trend.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
The interesting fact behind all of this is that these predictions were made by our research team months before today. Our Gold prediction was initiated near October 5, 2018. Our August 19 breakdown date was initiated near May 2019 (originally as a July Topping pattern expectation and later revised to the August 19 breakdown date). All of these predictions were created using our proprietary price modeling, predictive analysis tools, and advanced cycle analysis tools.
We find it absolutely incredible that we are able to make these types of predictions many months into the future and watch the markets do exactly what we suggested would happen. Obviously, we hope you are finding value in our research posts and modeling systems as well?
If you have not already prepared for the August 19 breakdown date prediction, we would suggest that you consider how you would want to protect any open long positions at this time (headed into the weekend) and set up your portfolio for a broader market rotation and upside move in precious metals over the next 3+ months. It is not too late to take action to protect your assets – even weeks past August 19, you can still act to take advantage of these bigger price moves. We are simply urging you to plan and prepare for these moves as you read our research posts.
FORECASTED MOVES FOR GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND STOCK INDEXES
In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.
I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused on gold miners and the SP 500 index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.
On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.
More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/60.png588975adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-16 09:43:022019-08-16 09:43:02PART II – Silver, Transports, and Dow Jones Index At Targets – What Direct Next?
In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.
Detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused on gold miners and the SP 500 index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.
We posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.
I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.
In this last segment of our multi-part research post regarding the US Fed and the global central banks, it is becoming evident that the fear of a further market contraction is resulting in the decrease in rates and the push for additional QE functions. Our research has shown that the global economy has partially recovered from the 2008-09 credit market collapse, but the process of the recovery has resulted in a “blowout” type of event where shifting capital intents and the transition from the 19th century economic model towards a new 21st century economic model is setting up the global markets for a massive rotation event over the next 12 to 24 months – possibly longer.
It is our belief that capital is still doing what capital always does, seeking out the best opportunities for safety and returns. Right now, that location is easily found in only certain segments of the markets; volatility, precious metals, certain energy sectors, US Treasuries and CASH. The future events, including the massive rotational event that we believe is about to unfold in the global markets, will change the way capital is deployed for many years to come.
It is very likely that this rotation event will create incredible opportunities for skilled technical traders or subscribers to our trade signal newsletter over the next 12 to 36 months and will likely prompt a further shift towards the new 21st-century economic model that we believe will be the ultimate outcome.
Taking a brief look at our recent history highlights the fact that capital becomes fearful about 12 to 16 months before a major US election event. Additionally, certain other factors related to the global economy heighten this fear as US/China trade issues, global debt issues and economic output issues continue to plague the markets. The combination of these types of events set up a “perfect storm” type of economic cycle where skilled technical traders are just waiting for the impact event to hit before the markets begin a bigger rotational event.
These types of events, similar to the 2000 and 2008-09 market crash event, are a process where price rotates out of a normal range and attempts to explore lower price levels that act as price support. It is not uncommon for these types of events to happen, although the severity of these events is difficult to determine prior to their execution.
The US Fed and global central banks set up an easy money process over the past 9+ years that allowed for capital to be deployed as a process that has setup this current massive rotational event. At first, the intent was to support collapsing markets and institutions – we understand that. But the nature of capital is to always seek out suitable safety and returns, so capital did what is always does hunt out the best opportunities for profits. First, it rallied into the crashing real estate market and emerging markets – which had been crushed by the 2008-09 credit crisis event. Next, it piled into the Asian markets and healthcare/technology markets. At this time, it also started piling into the startup/VC markets throughout the world as well as certain commodities. The recovery seemed to have created a booming and cash-flush market for anyone with two dollars to rub together.
Then came the 2015-16 market contraction and the end of the US Fed QE processes. At this time, China realized the need to control capital outflows and the US/Global markets slowed to a crawl as the US Presidential election cycle ramped-up. It was just 12 months prior to this 2015-16 event that oil crashed from $114 to $46. Within 2015-16, Oil continued to crash to levels below $30. This was the equivalent of the blowout cycle for the global economy. Headed into the 2016 US elections, the global economy was running on only 5 of 8 cylinders and was limping along hoping to find some way out of this mess.
The November 2016 US elections were just what the global economy needed and everyone’s perceptions about the future changed almost overnight. I remember watching the price of Gold on election night; +$75 early in the evening as Clinton was expected to win, then it continued to fall back to +$0 fairly late in the evening, then it fell to -$75 as the news of a Trump win was solidified. This rotation equated to a nearly 10% rotation in less than 24 hours based on FEAR. Once fear was abated, global investors and capital went to work seeking out the safest environments and best returns – like normal.
This resurgence of capital into the markets set up of a new SOP (standard operating procedure) where capital began to be deployed in more risky environments and into broader and bigger investment structures. This is the SETUP I’m trying to highlight that was created by the US Fed and central banks. I don’t believe anyone thought, at that time in early 2017, that the current set of events would have transpired and I believe global governments, central banks, and global financial institutions thought, “Party on, dude! We’re back to 2010 all over again”. Boy, were they wrong.
This time, the global central banks, governments and state-run enterprises engaged in bigger and more complex credit/debt structures while attempting to run the same game they were running back in 2010 and 2011. The difference this time is that the US Fed started raising Fed Fund Rates and destroyed the US Dollar carry trade while putting increasing pressure on the global market, global debt and global trade. The continued rally of the US Dollar after the 2018 lows helped to solidify the advantages and risks in the markets. This upside rally in the US Dollar, after the 2014 to 2016 rally, really upset the balance of the global markets and setup an increasing pressure point for foreign markets.
It soon became very evident that risks in the foreign markets could be partially mitigated by investing in the US stock market and by moving capital away from risky currencies and into US Dollar based assets. Capital is always doing what it always does – seeking out the best environment for returns and protection from risk. Thus, we have the setup right now – only 15 months before the 2020 US Presidential elections. What happens now?
This setup is likely to prompt a rotation in the global markets as well as within the US stock market. It is very likely that a continued contraction in consumer and banking activity (think business, real estate, trade, commodities, and others) will prompt a contraction in global economics very similar to what happened in 2014~2016. This process will likely put extreme risk factors at play in some of the most fragile economies and state-run enterprises on the planet. Once the flooring begins to crack in some of these markets, we’ll see how this event will play out. Right now, our eye is watching Europe and Asia for early warning signs.
The US Fed will continue to manipulate the FFR levels in an attempt to help mitigate the risks associated with this contraction event. It is likely that the US Fed already sees what we see and it attempting to position themselves into a more responsive stance given the potential outcomes. Inadvertently, the US Fed and global central banks presented an offer that was too good for anyone to ignore – easy cash. What they didn’t expect is that the 2014 to 2019 rally in the US Dollar and US stock market would transition capital deployment within the global market in such a way that it has – setting up the current event cycle.
We believe a downside pricing event is very likely over the next 10 to 25+ days where the US stock market may fall 12 to 25%, targeting levels shown on this chart (or slightly lower) as this rotational event takes place. Ultimately, the US markets will recover much quicker than many foreign/global markets. Our estimates are that the recovery in the US markets will likely begin to take place near March or April 2020 and continue higher beyond this date.
This Custom Smart Cash Index chart highlights the type of capital shift activity we’ve been describing to our readers and followers. It is easy to see that capital moved out of risky investments within the downturns on this chart and into the most opportunistic equity markets within the uptrends on this chart. Remember, most opportunistic markets are sometimes outside of the scope of this Smart Cash index. For example, this chart does not relate strength in the Precious Metals markets or other commodities/currencies. All this chart is trying to highlight for followers is how capital is being deployed in viable global equity markets and when capital is exiting or entering these markets.
Given the current setup, we would expect a breakdown in this Smart Cash Index over the next 4+ months to set up a new lower price level establishing a base/bottom before attempting to move higher. We believe the 100 level, shown as historical support, is a proper target price level for this move initially.
Lastly, we believe capital is moving aggressively into the precious metals markets and we urge all skilled technical traders to pay attention to this chart of the Gold/Silver ratio. If our analysis is correct and a larger rotation price cycle is about to unfold in the global markets, which may last well into 2020 (or beyond) for certain global markets, then you really need to pay attention to the upside potential for this Gold/Silver ratio.
As we’ve drawn on this chart, if this ratio recovers to 50% of the 2011 peak levels as this rotation unloads on the global market, this would push Gold and Silver prices to levels potentially 60% to 140%+ higher than current levels. I understand how hard it is to understand these types of incredible price increases and how they could possibly be relative to current prices, but trust us in our research. Gold and Silver prices have been measurably depressed over the past 3 to 4 years. Unleashing the real valuation levels of these precious metals at a time when risk factors are excessive suggests that Gold could easily be trading above $3200 and Silver above $60 to $65 within 6 to 12 months.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
In closing, we want to urge all skilled technical traders to keep a very open perspective to the “Party on, Dude” mode of the global central banks and be aware that a very fragile floor is the only thing holding up the markets in another massive US presidential election cycle event. In our opinion, the writing is already on the wall and we are preparing for this rotational event and alerting our members on what to do to profit from these moves.
The Federal Reserve and global central banks will attempt to keep the party rolling for as long as possible because they know the downside event could be something they don’t want to have to deal with. So watch how these global central banks attempt to nudge public perception away from risks and towards the “party on” mode. Stay alert. Stay aware. When this breaks, it will break quickly and aggressively.
Using technical analysis and proven strategies we can follow the market trends and profit from them no matter which the market moves. We bet with the market (the house) and provide entry, target, and stops for all trades we initiate.
NEXT MOVES FOR GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500
In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.
Detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused on gold miners and the SP 500 index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.
We posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.
I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/52.png544850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-14 14:56:552019-08-14 14:56:55PART 4 – Global Central Banks Move To Keep The Party Rolling
