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Surprise decision in the UK to thwart a No-Deal Brexit changed the dynamics of the markets.

Our August 19th prediction of a market breakdown, as well as our continued research suggesting a breakdown in price was the most likely outcome, is a combination of technical analysis, predictive modeling and our understanding of the market dynamics at play throughout the world.  But, when news like this hits (global economic news, surprise news announcements or any type of positive or negative massive news event) the dynamics of the global markets can shift quite suddenly which we want to explain here. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter so stay on top of these market moves.

Just a few days ago, it appeared that the US/China trade deal was still 30+ days away from any type of continued discussion and the UK Brexit was likely to take place this week and next.  With US earnings season setting up in September, headed into the holiday season throughout the globe, we believed the downside price move probability was far greater than the upside.  Then, out of almost nowhere, the No-Deal Brexit deal is sidetracked and the British Pound rallies dramatically on the news.

This Three-Hour British Pound Chart highlights the dramatic price reversal that took place late yesterday (after markets) and resulted in a news-driven price move that was unexpected.  The way these types of new events can come out of nowhere to dramatically alter price direction and trend is something that all traders have to deal with.  For a technical trader, these events, thankfully, don’t happen all that often.  But when they do happen, we have to readjust our understanding of the markets and dynamics that are taking place throughout the global financial environment and follow the money and potentially new trends against our current analysis.

With the news that the BREXIT is on hold right now and is being blocked by a certain segment in the UK Parliament, how will that result in new dynamics and opportunities for us to take advantage of and profit from? Obviously, currencies will continue to move until price levels settle near proper expectations – same thing with the global stock markets.  It is very likely that the US Indexes (ES, NQ, YM, and others) may attempt to move back towards recent highs if the fear and uncertainty of the BREXIT deal warranted that much pricing pressures in the markets?

Overall, when events like this happen, it is often the best decision not to try to chase them right away.  These are reactionary price moves related to news events – almost like a shock-wave which I explain this breakout on the chart is this video analysis.  They are here now, they move the market and they appear dramatic, but they are typically over as fast as they started.

This US Dollar chart highlights the downward price rotation that was likely prompted by the BREXIT news last night and may continue as the markets revalue “fear and uncertainty” over the next few days.  It is very likely that true price levels will be established over the next 7 to 10 days as the continued repositioning of assets results because of the change in BREXIT expectations from within the UK.

We need to stay dynamic in how we address these types of market moves and the risks that are persistent.  We can’t know what is going to happen in the governments and governing bodies of the world.  As technical traders, our job is to use our tools and resources to find the best opportunities and to take advantage of them when risks are manageable. We flip directions as the markets flip directions.  All we want the markets to move up or down because this provides opportunities for us to profit.

This Dow Jones Industrial Daily Chart highlights just how dramatic the upside move is today and how price is still below the recent highs set near 27,400.  Our August 19th Breakdown prediction is currently invalid based on this upside price move.  We did see a big move lower in early August, but we never saw the continued downside move that we expected.  The cycles were predicting this move would happen, but the global market dynamics (news and other items) have altered the current market perspective.  Must like QE events and other major global events, just because technical analysis or cycles suggest one thing will happen, if there is enough pressure from outside forces to move the markets one direction, then markets will typically relent to that pressure and move into the “path of least resistance”.  Right now, that path is upward.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

We took a series of great profitable trades over the past 4+ weeks while the stock market traded sideways. This week we closed out three winning trades 3%, 6.5%, and 9.88% while most others lost money. As technical traders, our only objective is to protect our assets, find great trades, generate profits and avoid unwanted risks.  We are doing exactly that by managing our position sizes, executing smart trades, creating profits for our members and continuing to seek out the best opportunities in the future.

Let this news event play out over the next few days.  Let the markets figure out where price wants to go after all the dust settles.  There will be lots of opportunities for more great trades in the future.

We believe our super-cycle research and other proprietary modeling systems are suggesting that price weakness will dominate the markets for the next few months. Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis and recession.

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

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Chris Vermeulen – *

Earnings may surprise the stock market – Watch Out!

I believe the outcome of the past 6+ months with regards to global trade, currency devaluations, and consumer sentiment will result in weaker US earnings in Q2 than at any time over the past 3+ years.  We believe US stocks, after recently breaching key psychological price levels ($300 SPY and $3000 ES) are poised to set up a sideways Pennant price pattern formation headed into a key price breakdown near the middle of August 2019.

Our cycle indicator tools and predictive modeling suggests that August 19, 2019, is the date to watch out for and after that date, we believe the US and global stock markets may begin a new downward price phase that could lead to a dramatic price decline. Read our August 19 Top warning here

This week I will share a report showing some really interesting charts rm a very different point of view that signal a larger correction is coming based on some leading sectors and proprietary analysis. You can get this report by joining my free newsletter located at the bottom of my Current Index Trade Signal Page here.

Earning Season Expectations For This Week

Early this week, July 15 through July 19, a total of 173 companies will be reporting earnings – including a number of very large firms such as Bank Of America (BAC), Alcoa (AA), US Bancorp (USB), IBM, Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK), E-Bay (EBAY), Netflix (NFLX), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Citigroup (C), United Airlines (UAL), JP Morgan Chase & Co (JPM), Wells Fargo & Co (WFC) and others.  The mix of reporting firms this week includes financial, consumer, basic materials, healthcare, home builders and many others.

If anything has disrupted these industries over the past 3+ months it has been the shock to the markets related to the October 2018 to December 2018 US stock market price collapse and the continuing trade wars/issues with China.  It is our opinion that these trade wars and pricing disruptions have resulted in a much more difficult environment for certain US and foreign nations to achieve Q2 expectations.  Thus, we are planning for a few interesting surprises over the next 10 to 15+ days.

Next week, July 22 through July 26, a total of 659 companies will be reporting earnings. We believe the bulk of these earnings reports will provide increased US and global market price volatility and could actually present a number of surprise results (both positive and negative).

The Nasdaq website reported this article on June 17, 2019, which we found interesting.

Expectations for Q2 2019, and to be quite honest – the rest of 2019, is overall quite negative from this article.  We believe the US markets will still be the top-performing global stock market because of the strength of the US economy and dynamic foundation of growth and opportunity going forward 2 to 4+ years.  But we are very concerned that the second half of 2019 stock market correction is about to hit and shock traders with a -15% to -20% (or more) price collapse initiated by the recent psychological price levels being breached and the Q2 earnings data that could shock the global markets.

From the Nasdaq article, Zacks Sector analysis for Q2 vs. Q1 2019 shows concern in a number of sectors while Consumer Discretionary and Retail/Wholesale shows Revenues increase and Margins fall.  Overall, it is quite distressing to see these expectations when one considers the strong economic data being released recently.

(Source)

The computer and technology sector seems uniquely poised for a very rough year based on Zachs expectations.  Overall, Q1 2019 earnings expectations were -6.7%, Q2 2019 earnings expectations are -11.5% and Q3 earnings expectations are -11.5%.  This does not look like a very positive set of data for the rest of this year and we believe this is where the real risk of a US stock market price collapse resides.

(Source)

Our Index Prediction Looking Forward

Months ago, we warned that a July 2019 market top is setting up and that we believed the US stock market would rotate much lower after a peak in July setup.  About 45 days ago, we adjusted our expectations to suggest that this top would likely form in August or early September based on our predictive modeling system output and our cycle tools.  We’ve honed the date down to August 19, 2019 (+/- 5 days) as the date that we believe the US stock market will TOP and/or initiate a new downside price move from this date.

You can see from the chart, below, that we believe the current price top may actually be near the highest point reached over the next 30+ days.  We believe earnings data will change the dynamics of price activity and increase volatility over the next 2 to 3 weeks.  Setting up a sideways Pennant price formation as the global markets and investors digest this new economic data.  Ultimately, a price breakdown is likely (a price revaluation event) that will allow for continued upside price growth in the future.

This Daily DJI chart highlights our expectations and highlights our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs that suggest the true price top formation will happen sometime near August 19, 2019.  We believe this date is critical and that price could begin a very quick and dramatic downside price move near this date based on the data we are expecting to see from Q2 earnings.

In previous articles, we’ve suggested a simple trade setup technique we use to identify entry and exit points – the 100% Fibonacci Extension Move.

Earnings and Prediction Conclusion:

We urge traders to plan and prepare for this potential setup by reducing risk in long positions and preparing for a potential downside price move that could be related to global market concerns, Q2 earnings data and continued global trade/economic issues.

Overall, once this price revaluation event is completed, much like the event in Oct~Dec 2018 and the event in May 2019, the US stock market will very likely resume the upward price bias/trend and continue to attempt to establish new all-time price highs into 2020 and beyond.

Price rotations, like the one we are suggesting, may happen after August 19, 2019, are very healthy for the markets.  These types of moves allow price to establish support and resistance levels, revalue assets, shake out certain biases and provide for future price moves/trends.

Be prepared.  The data may result in a very big increase in volatility over the next 10~15+ days and this could result in a very dramatic price correction setting up as we’ve suggested.  Learn how our research team can help you stay ahead of these bigger market moves and find incredible trading opportunities as these big moves take place.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these supercycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I urge you to visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.