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Revisiting Our ADL Predictions for S&P 500

Our research team authored an article suggesting that our Adaptive Dynamic Learning Predictive Modeling system indicated the US major markets were 12% to 15% overvalued on May 23, 2020.  This was just before the last “euphoric” phase of the recent rally took began the week after our prediction.  From the date of May 23, 2020, to the recent peak in the markets, the SPY rallied another 9.72% above the price levels when we made the ADL prediction.  This suggests that the major markets rallied to levels near 21% to 24% overvalued near the recent peak.

Please take a moment to review our original ADL article here: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/predictive-modeling-suggests-us-markets-12-over-valued/

In keeping with our research team’s conclusions, the downside price move that initiated on Wednesday, June 10, 2020, after the US Fed statements, and really broke down on June 11, 2020, will likely continue resulting in the US major markets attempting to find support near our ADL predictive modeling system levels.  The downside price trend could extend below our ADL price target levels if the selling in the markets pushes into an extreme selling event.  It is not uncommon for the price to attempt to move through the ADL price levels attempting to find support and/or resistance.

Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
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ORIGINAL ES ADL PREDICTED TARGET LEVEL WEEKLY

This is the ES chart showing our ADL predictive modeling system results from the May 23, 2020 date.  You can see the ADL predicted price levels near 2520 on this chart and the fact that the markets rallied away from these levels in late May created what we call a “price anomaly”.  This is when price moves away from the ADL levels in a manner that is somewhat unreasonable.  The same thing happened during the peak price level in early February 2018 and the October peak in 2018.

SPY ADL PREDICTED TARGET LEVEL DAILY

Based on our ADL predictive modeling system and the targeted price levels, we believe the SPY will fall to levels close to or below $260 over the next 10 to 15+ days.  It makes perfect sense that the markets over-extended a speculative price rally based on the context that the US economy would rebound from the COVID-19 shutdown.

Now that the US Fed has deflated that expectation and the riots and other issues related to social and political events are pending, we believe a “sudden realization” within the markets could send the US stock market price levels much lower over the next 2+ weeks – eventually attempting to find support near recent lows.

We actually posted our technical forecast for the market crash, the 30% rally, and called this blow-off top and reversal 4 days before it happened in this video a while back.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Remember, developing a winning strategy is not about trading every trend and day-trading every move, it is about timing your trades and strategically positioning your portfolio to take advantage of the “best asset now”.  We’ve developed proprietary technology that assists us in determining the best assets to be invested in and our predictive modeling and other proprietary tools assist us in identifying confirmed trade triggers.  Our objective is to assist our clients in generating consistent profits – not hundreds of trades.

If you were caught on the wrong side of this move recently, please remember that we tried to warn you of our multiple research articles and clear content.  We’ve been warning that this upside rally was a speculative price move driven by foreign and US investors believing the V-shaped recovery was real.  The reality of the situation is that this recovery is going to be much more volatile than many people believe.  This is a global economic event – not just a Fed Blip or some other isolated panic volatility.

You better stay on top of these trends and risks in the markets to stay ahead of these bigger moves.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is an incredible year for traders and investors.  Don’t miss all the incredible trends and trade setups.

Subscribers of my Active ETF Swing Trading Newsletter had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over in February, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way with TLT bonds for a 20% gain. This week we closed out SPY ETF trade taking advantage of this bounce and entered a new trade with our account is at another all-time high value.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others watch most of their retirement funds drop another 35-65% during the rest of this financial crisis going into late 2020 and early 2021.

Just think of this for a minute. While most of us have active trading accounts, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during the next bear market, you could lose 25-50% or more of your net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how. One of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position but we do have a way for you or your advisor can take advantage of the market gyrations with our Technical Wealth Advisor investing signals.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Passive Long-Term ETF Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Critical Price Level Could Prompt A Big Move After Holiday

As technical traders and researchers, we’ve been paying very close attention to the GREEN ARC Fibonacci resistance level on the SPY as a key level for the US stock market and any hope of a continued upside price rally.  The SPY has traded near this level for the past three weeks and appears to be attempting a bit of an upside breakout right now.  Yet, we understand a long holiday weekend is upon us in the US, Memorial Day, and after a big upside GAP on Monday, the US stock market has stalled over the past few days.

Our researchers believe this GREEN ARC is still acting as critical price resistance and believe the SPY may sell off into the end of the week resulting in a failed attempt to breach this key resistance level.  If this happens, the failed attempt to break this resistance could prompt a change in price trend and initiate a new downside price trend.  If this resistance level is broken by the end of this week, then we have a pretty solid indicator that continued bullish price trending may continue.

Absent of any real news that may drive the market trend this holiday weekend and with most of the US still in shutdown mode, we believe the US stock market has continued to trade within this no man’s land area for many weeks now.  From the end of April till now, we’ve seen moderate upside price action in certain sectors, yet other sectors continue to show signs of weakness.

SPDR S&P500 ETF WEEKLY CHART

Before we continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

TRANSPORTATION INDEX WEEKLY CHART

This Transportation Index Weekly chart is a perfect example of the weakness that is evident away from the S&P500, NASDAQ, and Dow Industrials.  Compare the last 6+ weeks of trading on this TRAN chart to the SPY chart above.  Notice that the TRAN chart shows a very congested sideways price channel (highlighted in YELLOW) as well as a much deeper upside price move from the lows near March 20.  While the US major indexes have rallied substantially, the broader market indexes are not experiencing the upside price advance and continue to suggest overall weakness.

This disconnect in the markets suggests speculation is driving the US major indexes higher and not real fundamental appreciation based on earnings and revenues.  When this speculation ends, typically when speculators realize the price has been driven a bit too high compared to reality, then the trend can change in an instant.

ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 ETF WEEKLY CHART

This IWM Russell 2000 ETF Weekly chart highlights a similarly week upside price rally since the March 20th bottom.  The WHITE LINE on this chart represents a support/resistance level from early trading low price levels in 2017.  Our research team believes these levels represent a very important support/resistance level for the Russell 2000 ETF as this level coincides with the GAP in price that was generated within the recent selloff on March 9, 2020.  That GAP cleared this key support/resistance level with a very big downside price move.  We believe this level will act as intense resistance as price attempts to fill the GAP.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Overall, the US stock market has continued to trade within this no man’s land recently.  There have been some pretty decent upside price moves in certain sectors over the past few weeks.  Precious metals, certain travel/leisure stocks, and, of course, technology and services stocks.  Yet, we continue to warn our friends and followers to be very aware that the US stock market is far from immune to more downside price activity.  A deep selloff like we experienced will very often react with a “recovery move” – a dead cat bounce type of move.  While the NQ has been a big mover, these other sectors suggest we may be nearing a tipping point and we urge technical traders to stay very aware of the risks as we head into this long holiday weekend.

I’ve been trading since 1997 and I’ve lived through numerous market events.  The one thing I teach my members is that risk is always a big part of trading and that’s why I structure all of my research and trading signals around “finding profits while reducing overall risks”.  Sure, there are fast profits to be made in these wild market swings, but those types of trades are extremely risky for most people – and I don’t know of anyone that wants to risk 50 or 60% of their assets on a few wild trades.

You don’t have to spend days or weeks trying to learn my system.  You don’t have to try to learn to make these decisions on your own or follow the markets 24/7 – I do that for you.  All you have to do is follow my research and trading signals and start benefiting from my research and trades.  My new mobile app makes it simple – download the app, sign in and everything is delivered to your phone, tablet, or desktop.

Please take a moment to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn more.  I can’t say it any better than this…  I want to help you create success while helping you protect and preserve your wealth – it’s that simple.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Adaptive Fibonacci Suggests A Deeper Bottom Will Setup

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system suggests a much deeper price move is in the works and the current price rally will likely end near resistance levels identified by the Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system.  We are posting this research post for friends and followers to help them understand the true structure of price and to allow them to prepare for what we believe will become a much deeper downside price move in the future.

Fibonacci Price Theory teaches us that price moves in waves within up and down price cycles.  The recent peak in price, near February 25, 2020, has resulted in a very deep -36% price collapse in the S&P 500 (ES) recently.  This downside move has been mostly straight down, excluding a brief retracement in early March.  The strength of this downside price move suggests a moderate upside price recovery will take place before the next downside leg sets up.

Before we continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

S&P 500 WEEKLY CHART OF 2008-09 CREDIT CRISIS MARKET COLLAPSE

Throughout the 2008-09 Credit Crisis market collapse, prices staged multiple recovery attempts within the downward price trend.  The first, after the initial -20.88% selloff in late 2007, resulted in a +14.83% price recovery that lasted for over 15+ weeks.  The second recovery, near the end of July 2008, resulted in a +9.56% recovery after a nearly -17% price decline.  After this brief recovery in July 2008, the price collapsed by a massive -44% from August to November 2008.

DAILY S&P 500 CHART

This Daily ES chart highlights the first two levels of resistance at 2700 & 2870 that could stall the rally and prompt a downside price move in the future. Support is currently at 2450.  We believe the 2700 level will act as a soft ceiling in the ES where price may attempt to rally, briefly, above this level, which it did yesterday, then pull back and pause as selling pressure re-enters the market.  The 2870 level may act as a hard ceiling where price may attempt to reach this level, but immediately reverse back to the downside.

Overall, we believe continued selling as a result of forward global economic expectations is the most obvious outcome where a deeper price bottom will setup sometime later this spring or early summer.

WEEKLY S&P 500 CHART

This Weekly S&P 500 chart (ES) shows a possible outcome for price going forward if another downside move starts.  A new downside price move to levels near to, or just below, the 2015~16 low price range is not unreasonable. From this level, we believe a “Flag” formation will setup creating an extended price bottom pattern down at those extreme lows.  We believe this “Flag” formation will end near August~October 2020, just before the 2020 elections and prompt the beginning of a new upside price recovery in the US and global markets.

This is a large forward-looking projection and you may be rolling your eyes, but they are very possible. In fact, last year we predicted the months and price levels in which gold and oil would start new major trends, and we did this 8 months before they took place, similar to what we are proposing here.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

The rotation in price setup by this brief upside price move will set up a new Fibonacci downside and upside price target range.  We believe it is essential for price to continue this type of rotation as the eventual bottom sets up in the US and global markets.  We believe the true price bottom will happen only after the virus event has subsided and global economies begin to start functioning like normal again.

Currently, there is simply too much of a world-wide disruption to expect that the bottom has already set up near last year’s (2019) brief price lows.  The scale and scope of the current downside price collapse do not properly reflect the total scope of this global virus event yet – it is still a reactionary move in price that has yet to properly digest the total scope of the global economic disruptions. There is a chance for stronger bounce/rally in the next few weeks/months if the virus can start to be contained, and that will continue to mimic that of the 2000 tech bubble. Believe it or not, there is a big similarity to what happened then, to what is happening now in terms of price action and market sentiment. Read article and see these charts.

In other words, we believe more selling will be seen in the global markets and more economic contraction will take place until we are safely beyond this virus event.  The longer the global economic shutdown continues, the more likely we are to see a deeper price bottom in the future and the more likely we are to see more extensive economic collateral damage across the world. No matter which way the markets move we will follow and trade the price action and profit. That is the benefit of following price vs trying to trade prediction, fundamental data etc.

In Part II of this research article, we’ll dig deeper into the underlying components that support our research.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders.

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.

We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

The Selloff Structure Explained – Fibonacci On Deck

Many traders become very emotional when the markets turn Bearish and fail to properly understand that price structure is still driving market price movement.  This morning, I highlighted this structure to my subscribers attempting to alert them to the possibility that the markets could recover moderately over the next 3 to 5+ days attempting to set up the next “waterfall” downside price event.

On January 29, 2020, I posted a research article detailing my belief that a “waterfall” type of event was setting up in the markets.  This article was nearly 30 days prior to the peak in the markets.  It explained how events take place and how markets tend to develop a moderate recovery phase between selloff price declines.

January 29, 2020: ARE WE SETTING UP FOR A WATERFALL SELLOFF?

Skilled traders should notice the size and levels of each selloff event in the chart (above) and pay very close attention to how price initially collapsed from the peak, then recovered nearly 50% in early and late November before finally setting up a deeper waterfall price collapse in early December.

Our research team believes the US stock markets may attempt something similar over the next 3 to 5+ days as the Covid-19 economic outcome continues to process through the global markets.

The US and other Central Banks have taken broad steps to attempt to overcome the negative economic outcomes related to the Covid-19 global shutdown.  Their biggest concern is that consumer activity could diminish and banking/credit firms could come under severe pressures because of a consumer collapse.

There are over 35 million US low-wage jobs that may become at-risk because of the Covid-19 virus event.  We believe the true economic contagion of the global virus event may now be known until well into April or May 2020.  Yet we believe these at-risk, low-wage jobs are prevalent throughout the globe and foreign nations, such as Asia and Europe, may experience a similar consumer economic contagion over the next 6+ months.

Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

We believe the data related to the Covid-19 economic crisis will not fully be known until well into April or May 2020.  Because of this, we believe the US stock markets may recover to levels near the 50% Fibonacci Retracement levels on these charts before attempting a series of further downside price moves.  Skilled traders should not become overly emotional right now and pay attention to the structure of the price action as well as other technical conditions in play at the moment.  Our objective is to execute trades with a highly targets success rate – not to trade on emotions.

SPY DAILY CHART

This SPY Daily chart shows the SPY would only need to rally 18.70 points to reach the 50% Fibonacci retracement level on this chart.  This could happen very quickly given how close the price actually is to this key Fibonacci level.  If that were to happen over the next 3 to 5+ trading days, the downward sloping price channels from our TTCharger modeling system would move lower to meet price near 278 – which would set up a new resistance zone and possibly a new wave of selling.

INDU DAILY CHART

This INDU Daily chart shows the Dow Jones would have to rally about 2025 points (to levels near 23,886) to reach the 50% Fibonacci Retracement target.  If this were to happen, the sloping price channels on this chart would likely move lower to meet price near this 50% target level – presenting a very clear resistance zone for a new wave of selling to begin.

Remember, it is not about emotions or attempting to try to force the markets to adopt your “belief”.  Skilled traders attempt to identify risks, opportunities and realistic technical setups that allow them to objectively determine where and when the markets are providing a real opportunity for success.

We may be just a few days away from the next major wave of selling, yet any trader who jumped into an emotional trader over the past 5+ days expecting the markets to continue to break down is likely under a fair amount of stress right now.  Learn to read the charts and the structure of price more effectively and you’ll find the answers are already on the charts in front of you.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for short-term swing traders.

If you are a more active trader and swing trader visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter. If you are a long-term investor looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to look into my Long-Term Investing Signals.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Cash Is King, Not Gold, Not Bonds

Exactly one month ago, on February 20th, the SP500 made an all-time high and reversed its trend to the downside. What a wild ride the last month has been across virtually all asset classes.

Out of all the major indexes, commodities, and currencies, only one asset and trade moved higher. It’s no surprise given the title that cash or the US Dollar is the asset of choice having rallied over 9% while everything else fell with bonds down 22.75%, stocks 30%-40%, gold miners 58%, and crude down 62%.

My team and I have talked about this rotation to safety into USA/US Dollar) since the lows back in 2018. During the recent stock and commodity price crash, we have seen where investors are dumping their money. It’s not gold, it’s not bonds, but the US Currency. Stocks and commodities are being sold around the globe, and that money is buying up the US dollar.

US DOLLAR RISES ABOVE THE REST
PROOF THE GREENBACK IS STILL THE #1 CURRENCY WORLD WIDE

DAILY S&P 500 INDEX – SUPPORT, BOTTOMING SIGNAL, AND RESISTANCE

The 30+% correction in the ST&P 500 index has been an extraordinary event. Those who have proven trading strategies and abide strictly to position, and risk management rules have been able to not only avoid the market crash but profit and reach new account highs. While those who trade for the thrill, expect oversized gains regularly, and who don’t have a clear trading plan or position management are suffering from the recent selloff.

Last night I watched a great video talking about performance and the winning mindset that both traders and top athletes share. The different ways someone can trade profitably in the markets is fascinating. If you want to be inspired to be a better person and trader, take a look at this video by Real Vision with Dr. Gio Valiante.

Ok, so let us jump into the charts. As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a couple of bull/bear market cycles. I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for short-term swing traders and long-term investors.

As you will see from the chart below, I keep things easy for you to see visually and get the idea of what to expect moving forward. The green line is a very significant long term support level on the S&P 500 index. Knowing that price has fallen straight down to this level gives us a much higher chance of a bounce at a minimum.

Trade Tip: The faster the price moves to a critical support or resistance level, the higher the chance you will have a bounce back from that level for a candlestick or three.

The pink arrow on the chart points towards a candlestick pattern, which I call Tweezers. These should be seen as a possible reversal signal.

Lastly, is the red resistance zone. I know it’s a huge range, but at this point, it’s the area we will zero in on once/if price starts to near that level.

30 MINUTE S&P 500 TRADING CHART

This chart is the 30-minute chart of the index and only shows regular trading hours between 9:30 am ET and 4 pm ET. While this is only 1/3rd of the trading day for futures, it is when the majority of contracts/shares are traded, so that is my main focus for analysis.

Since 2001 I have been building and refining my trading strategies to make them somewhat automated. This chart below shows my trend colored chart, which is the basis of my trading for almost all asset classes. What the S&P 500 does directly relates to how I trade or avoid other asset classes.

Recently, we created a market gauge showing you visually where the market is within its 30-50 day price cycle.

When the trend changed, and the bars turned orange on Feb 25th subscribers, and I closed our equities position because they were now out of favor. This allowed us to avoid the market crash through trend analysis, and from our trailing stop order.

FIRST WAVE OF SAFETY WAS IN BONDS

The two charts below of bonds show the same trend and trades but share some different trading tips.

The first 30-minute chart shows a pink line, which was our trend trade. The strategy is to look for large patterns, wait for a trend change, and then take advantage of the new trend. This trade we entered mid-January.

The key points from this chart are to know when the price goes parabolic in any direction and with huge price gaps, know its time to start scaling out of a trade, or close it.

BONDS DAILY CHART – SPOT LARGE PATTERN, TRADE THE BREAKOUT

The second point is that you must have a trading plan and actively manage your trade by moving up protective stop orders, so when price corrects, you are taken out of the trade automatically.

This daily chart of bonds shows the large bullish chart pattern (bull flag). I waited for price to breakout, the trend to turn green, and then entered the trade using Fibonacci extensions for price targets, which I have found are the absolute best way to spot our price targets. If bonds were to rally to the 100% measured move, we would close the trade, and that is what happened exactly.

A few things took place at that price level, which has the charts screaming at me to sell. First, the 100% target was reached. The second was that price was going parabolic with a 10% gap higher above my target, and volume was extremely high, meaning everyone, including their grandmother, were buying bonds. If everyone is buying the same thing, its time to move on to a new chart.

GOLD AND GOLD MINERS AS A SAFE HAVEN

While subscribers of my ETF trading signals and I profited on GDXJ as an early safe-haven trade exiting our position at the high tick of the day before it reversed and fell 58%, most traders I know still hold their gold miner’s positions.

For most of us, it is tough to sell a winning trade, and it is even harder to sell a losing trade. And knowing most trades will turn into a losing trade if you hold them long enough, the odds are clearly stacked against you as a trader.

This pullback in metals and miners, which turned into something much larger than I ever expected, is a huge shock to most people. The reality is history shows during extreme volatility/fear both gold and bonds collapse, and it is nothing new or unexpected.

In fact, I posted a warning that both will fall two days before they topped and collapsed in this special report.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, we are experiencing some unprecedented price swings in the financial system, but other than extra-large market selloffs, and rallies the charts are still moving and telling us the same things for trading and investing.

There are times when the markets are untradable as a swing trader, which is has been the last 15 days because of how them market has been moving. It is a fantastic time for day traders, but with some sectors moving 10-25% a day back to back like the gold miners or crude oil, it is high-risk trading (gambling) right now.

With all that said, my inter-market analysis is pointing to some tradable price action potentially starting next week. The potential is larger than normal because price volatility remains elevated, meaning 10-20% moves over a week or two are expected.

Visit my ETF Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Is This A Bear Market When Stocks Crash 20% and Bonds Spike 30%

It is another blood bath in the markets with everything down, including TLT (bonds) and gold. Safe havens falling with stocks is not a good sign as people are not comfortable owning anything, even the safe havens, and this to me is a very bearish sign.

Now, with that said, this is one day one of this type of price action and one day does not constitute a new trend or change the game, but if we start seeing more of this happen, we could be on the verge of the bear market we have all been expecting to show it ugly face.

The SP500 (SPY) is down 19.5% from the all-time high we saw just three weeks ago, and the general bias for most people is once the market is down 20% that is a new bear market. I can’t entirely agree with that general rule. Still, a lot of damage is happening to the charts. If price lingers down here or trades sideways for a few months I will see it as a new bear market consolidation before it heads lower, and we start what could be very deep market selloff and test 2100 on the SP500 index (SPY $210) for the next leg down looking forward several months.

20% STOCK MARKET CORRECTION ARE NOT BEARISH

Just because the markets have a deep correction of 20% does not mean its game over for stocks. Just take a look at the chart below on what happened the last time the market corrected 20%. As you can see, they were the biggest and best investor opportunities over the past 12 years. Today, my friend called and said they heard on the news that we are now officially in a bear market, and what should he do?

20% CORRECTIONS CAN TURN INTO A BEAR MARKET – BE READY

The SP500 fell 20% in 2001 and again from the 2007 high its lows, then bounce 10% – 14 over the next few months before rolling over to start its first bear market leg. I feel something similar will happen this time, which would put us a few months before the price should test these lows again and breakdown to give us optimal time to reposition our long term portfolio.

Once we do start a bear market, you will notice price moves very differently from what we have experienced over the past 12 years. How you trade now likely will be a struggle to make money. If you try to trade bonds, they are relatively tricky because of how they move during a bear market. The stock market can fall for a year, and bonds are still trading at or below the price they were when the bear market started. This different price action is what happened in 2001-2002, and again in 2008.

BONDS GO BALLISTIC

Bonds also take on the price action similar to how the VIX trades with violent price spikes only to fade back down again quickly, and this generally happens near the end of a bear market, or extreme selloff like we are in now. Heck bonds (TLT) jumped 30% just in the past few weeks, we caught it, but most traders missed this move. You need to understanding market sentiment and how to trade bear market type price action because that is how the market is moving this week, and trading/chart patterns become more sentiment-driven than logical trading setups and trades become counterintuitive.

I also traded GDXJ for a 9.5% gain and closed that position at open for the high tick with my followers, and we didn’t follow my proven trading rules for price targets, trailing stops, and reading the market sentiment we could be down over 30% today which I know many traders are simply because they lack control of their trading (no defined rules, fall in love with positions). I’ll be doing a detailed gold and gold miners article so stay tuned!

Be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

I share this analysis, not to scare you, but let you know where we stand. The stock market is treading on thin ice, and if/when it breaks down, a new bear market will have started. Remember, we are still in a bull market, but the coronavirus is stopping businesses, which means earnings will be poor, and that is why stocks are falling. Investors know stocks are worth less money if they make less money; it is that simple.

The type of market condition I think we have entered could be here for a while, a year or three, and it’s going to be a traders market, which means you must have a trading strategy, plan your trades, and trade your plan. It’s amazing how simple a few trading rules are written down on paper can save you thousands of dollars a year from locking in gains, or cutting losses. I have this mini trading strategy mastery course if you want to take control of your trades and override your emotional issues. It’s easy to hold winners until they turn into losers, taking to large of a position, or maybe you have masted the art of buying high and selling low repeatedly? Yikes! It happens to most traders, and it can easily be overcome with a logical game plan I cover in the crash course, pun intended 🙂

Someone yesterday I spoke with said that in the USA alone already had 10,000 people die just from common influenza, yet here we are freaking out over 17 dead in the USA. Sure, its bad news, but the common sicknesses for older citizens makes coronavirus seems a little blown out of proportion. There are conspiracy theories out there and this could be bioweapon which is scary and I am no expert in this field but my sources are not concerned with the Conornavirus. I want to think a cure gets found soon, and if so, the markets will rebound with a vengeance, and we can relax.

In short, if you have lost money with your trading account this year, holding some big losing trades that were big winners just a couple of weeks ago, I think it’s worth joining my trading newsletter so you can stay on top of the markets. I take the loud, emotional, and complex market and deliver simple common sense commentary and a couple of winning trades each month.

My trading is nothing extreme or crazy exciting because I’m not an adrenaline trading junky. I only want to grow my entire portfolio 2-4% a month with a couple of conservative ETF trades and make a 22%-48% return on my capital without the stress of being caught up in this type of market and feeling like I always need to be in a trade.

Happy Trading!

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Have We Seen The Peak In The VIX?

The recent price breakdown in the US stock market (near the end of February 2020) prompted a very big spike in the VIX – could we see another HUGE spike with a deeper price selloff in the near future?

Our researchers believe this first downside price rotation in the US stock market may be just the first downside move in what may become a “waterfall” price event where price declines in a series of downside price waves reaching an ultimate support level.  The way the VIX works is to attempt to normalize implied volatility based on available options call and put data over a 30-day span.  The process of normalizing this data attempt to eradicate outlier data from the equation.  Thus, a VIX level of 40 has likely resulted in completed data that attempts to eliminate outlier data points that may have resulted in a much higher VIX value.

After this recent rally in the VIX level, the current normalization process will likely take the current range of the VIX (options data) into consideration for future VIX levels.  Thus, in order for the VIX to reach levels above 40 again, a much bigger downside price move would have to take place – possibly pushing the SPY to levels near $260 or lower.  A move like this would have to happen in an aggressive type of price decline in order for the VIX to rally back above 40.  Is this something we should expect in the near future?

Options Traders Be Aware: In our next post, we will touch one why trading options in this type of market condition is a major NO-NO.

Be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter before closing this page so you don’t miss our next special report!

Our researchers believe the likelihood of a price decline like this is greater than 60% at this time.  We believe a Waterfall type of price event is unfolding where the price will attempt to source out true support levels as global central banks position ahead of any economic fallout for Q1 and Q2 of 2020.  It is because of these expectations that we believe global traders and investors will suddenly pull capital away from risk, into CASH and safe-havens while the unknowns of the global economic situation play out.  This dramatic shift from just 30 days ago may push the VIX to levels above 50 or 60 if we experience another aggressive selloff.

Liquidity becomes a major problem as Algos begin to pull capital out of the markets – like the FLASH CRASH of years ago.  This type of activity is already happening as many of our Algos and those of some of our friends have already started identifying severe risk factors in the markets as ATR and VIX have skyrocketed.  This lack of liquidity in the global markets could prompt an extended FLASH CRASH type of price event over the next 30 to 60+ days – possibly multiple FLASH events.

DAILY VIX CHART

This Daily VIX chart highlights the scale of the second Waterfall price event that recently took place.  The first Waterfall price move took place in early February and was very minor – yet our researchers caught it.

WEEKLY VIX CHART

This Weekly VIX chart highlights what we believe to be a likely scenario where VIX normalizes to levels below 25 over the next 2~3 weeks before another downside Waterfall event takes place as Q1 earnings data is about to hit the markets (near the end of March or early April).  It makes perfect sense to us that revisions and announcements will begin to hit the news wires relating to missed earnings and profit expectations near the end of March 2020.  If the Coronavirus is still working its way through Europe, the Middle East, and North America, we could be set up for a shocking April 2020 as Q1 earnings are announced.  This is what we believe will send the VIX skyrocketing to levels above 45~50 potentially.

A 25 to 35 day period of relative calm (2~3+ weeks) before earnings data starts to funnel into the news cycle.  Come early April, if companies have not yet already adjusted guidance, we could be in for a series of surprises that shock the US stock market and send the VIX skyrocketing.

SMART CASH INDEX SHOW GLOBAL EQUITY TREND

Our Smart Cash Index has recently broken below historical support channels and may begin to move into a new downward price channel soon.  This would be the first time in over 8+ years that this lower price channel has been seriously threatened in this manner.  A new downward price channel setup could indicate some extended downside price moves are in our future.  These types of downside price moves could indicate a broader global move away from risk as trader attempt to move capital into the safety of CASH and other investments.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

As we’ve been warning for many months, 2020 is sure to be a very exciting year for skilled traders.  Don’t miss any of these incredible opportunities for broad sector swings and bigger moves in the US and Global stock markets.  These are the types of price swings that can make fortunes for skilled traders who are ahead of the bigger moves.

In fact, on Friday while traders and investors were down 15% with equities subscribers and I locked in 20.07% profit on our TLT trade and we avoided the equities collapse all together using my proven technical analysis strategies.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I urge you visit my ETF Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Bar!

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

SPY Breaks Below Fibonacci Bearish Trigger Level

Our research team wanted to share this chart with our friends and followers.  This dramatic breakdown in price over the past 4+ days has resulted in a very clear bearish trigger which was confirmed by our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system.  We believe this downside move will target the $251 level on the SPY over the next few weeks and months.

SOME RECENT HEADLINE ARTICLES WORTH READING:

On January 23, 2020, we issued a warning that the Put/Call ratio was warning of a potential Flash Crash

On January 24, 2020, we issued a research post related to the Wuhan Wipeout the markets

On January 26, 2020, we issued this research post about the start of a Black Swan event

On January 29, 2020, we issued this research post about a potential WaterFall selloff

Clearly, we were well ahead of this correction and issued multiple warnings to our friends and followers. This week we locked in 9.48% on GDXJ at the open on Monday, and today we are writing to suggest that $251 on the SPY is real support (see the magenta/purple area/line on this chart) and pay attention to the real risks at play in the markets.

This would suggest that the major markets will wipe out about 25% of the valuations in the major averages (ES, NQ, and YM), before finding any real support.  Obviously, there is a level near $208 that appears in RED on this chart.  If $251 fails to hold as support, then we immediately start to look at that $208 level for ultimate support.

This is the time when you want skilled researchers and traders backing you up and sourcing real solid trade opportunities for you.  We’ve been warning about this move for many months, suggesting that 2020 was going to be an incredible year for skilled traders and warning that a large downside price rotation was likely after August 2019.

In fact, one of our researchers predicted this move back in February/March 2019.  Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you stay ahead of these massive trends and find real opportunities in the markets.

Make sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter before closing this page so you don’t miss our next special report!

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

Trading Strategies For GDXJ, SPY, Bonds, And Natural Gas

Chris Vermeulen joins me today to shares his trading strategy for 4 different markets. While most of these markets are not correlated he has reasons for why he is long in each. Pick and choose where you want to deploy your capital.

Get Chris’ Trade Signals Today – Click Here

Q4 Earnings Setup The Rally To The Peak

Our research team believes the current Q4-2019 earnings season and expectations are prompting a “Rally To A Peak”.  We’ve been warning our followers and clients that we believe the US Stock Market has rallied to levels that constitute a “near peak enthusiasm” related to historical price volatility.

As you’ll see from these charts, below, we are not dismissing this current upside rally and the potential that it could last for many weeks or months longer – we’re just warning our followers and clients that we believe a very volatile period or price rotation is setting up within the next 10 to 25+ days as prices reach the historical upper boundary.

Our researchers believe that price channels are a very common form of technical analysis.  Price enters a channel when defined boundaries are established and when price continues to rotate within these boundaries.  Historically, when a price channel is broken or breached, a new price channel is quickly established.  You’ll see examples of this very clearly in the Custom US Stock Market Index and Custom Volatility charts below.

Within this research post, we want to highlight the rally levels across a number of our Custom Index charts because we believe the current US stock market rally is nearing a “peaking level/process” that may surprise many investors.  Even though the current price trend may be quite stable to the upside, price tends to rotate in up and down price cycles throughout shorter and longer-term trends.  We have termed this “true price exploration”.  It is the basis of the Elliot Wave theory and Fibonacci price theory.  The price must always attempt to establish new price highs or new price lows – at all times.

Put in more simple terms, the price will always rotate up and down within a trend – it will never go straight up or straight down.  There must be some rotation in price as support and resistance levels are established while true price exploration is taking place.  This process is the reason that we believe the global markets are setting up for a moderate price rotation/reversion in the near future.

This first chart, our Custom US Stock Market Index Weekly chart, highlights the recent upside price breakout that took place late in 2019.  We believe this rally is the result of a continued Capital Shift into the US stock market by foreign investors as well as continued fundamental economic data as a result of President Trump’s tax and deregulation policies.  The US/China trade deal, beginning to settle in November 2019, was also very good news for the markets overall.  As technical investors, these massive global concerns or positive events play a big role in understanding how the price will bias as it digests these positive or negative events.

The one aspect of this Custom US Stock Market Index chart we want to focus everyone onto is the Price Channel that we’ve drawn across the peaks and troughs of price over the past 2+ years.  The downside price rotation late in 2019 setup a defined price channel that we believe will act as critical price resistance in the very near future.  Should this price rally continue for another 2+ weeks, the price will very likely reach this resistance level – then what?

The current upside price rally technically confirms that price has already established a “new price high” and if this resistance level is a strong as we believe, based on the historical price channel structure, it may prompt a moderately large price correction/reversion event.  Once price rallies to near the upper price boundary, there is a very strong likelihood that price will experience hard resistance.  A potential rotation in price could prompt a move below 880 – the middle price channel level.

Our Custom Valuation Index Weekly chart highlights the amount of capital pouring into the markets and the fact that global investors continue to believe the upside price rally in the US stock market is likely to continue.  The past FLAG formation, from September 2019 till near November 2019, suggested that global investors were quite concerned about future valuation growth.  It would appear that global investors began to become very cautious in September 2019 – then started pouring capital back into the markets in late November/early December 2019.  It was likely foreign investors that began pouring capital into the US markets at that time.

Either way, the advance in the price of our Custom Valuation Index suggests that global investors believe the US stock market is, again, in rally mode into early 2020 and through Q4 2019 Earnings.

Now for the kicker. Our Custom Volatility Weekly chart is back into extreme overbought territory.  This indicator can stay in this range as price advances for many weeks – like what happened in late 2018.  Over the past 24+ months, every time the Volatility Index moved up into these extreme overbought levels, a moderate to severe price rotation/reversion took place.  This is important to understand for all traders.

Price could attempt to stay up in this overbought level for many weeks or months – yet the risk of a price correction/reversion would only gain strength the longer the Volatility Index stays above 19.  Be prepared for increased volatility over the next 60+ days and be prepared for a potential price reversion.  Our researchers believe we are very close to critical price resistance and an explosion in volatility.

As skilled technical traders, this is exactly what we want to see happen.  We want to be able to find and identify profitable price trends, prepare for price corrections and attempt to time our entries into various ETFs and sectors to be able to profit from these bigger swings.  As the rally continues to push higher, pay attention to the earnings data that is release and expect volatility to begin to move higher.  We believe a number of earning surprises are going to hit the markets.  These could prompt some 2% or greater price swings in the US markets.

This is the year you really want to find the right team to help you identify and trade these bigger trends.  Don’t let 2020 pass you by while these incredible setups continue to roll into bigger market trends.  Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades.

Join my Wealth Building Newsletter if you like what you read here and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.  Visit our web site (www.thetechnicaltraders.com) to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.