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Weekly SPX & Gold Price Cycle Report

Today I want to talk to you about the SP500 because it’s on the verge of making a very significant move. We could experience a 15% rally or a 15% decline and it could be just around the corner.

Let me recap on both the short-term top this month, and then a look at the bigger picture of what happened last October through December and if we are going to see that happen again. There is the possibility we get a massive rally if the market breaks to new highs. The market is loaded and ready for action. Whichever way it breaks will have a strong impact on precious metals and bonds. Make sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.

21 DAYS THEN A BREAKDOWN?

Let’s look at the SP500 for the last 6 months in the chart below. If we were to just draw support trendlines across the lows and a resistance trend line across the highs, you can see we still have some room for the SP500 to work itself higher and still be within the pattern.

Do you see the blue line that is on the chart? You will notice it follows price very closely and you’ll notice the purple line on the hard-right edge as well. This purple line is the forecasted projected cycle price that we are anticipating for the SP500 over the next 45 days.

I should note that as the market evolves and moves this price cycle forecast will change, but it gives us a good idea of current cycles in the market and where the price should go next.

Overall, we’re all you’re looking for SP500 to struggle to move higher because it acts as resistance. If resistance holds then it is likely the market breaks down and tests the August or September Low.

S&P 500 OCTOBER – DECEMBER MARKET CRASH TO REPEAT?

Let’s step back and look at last year’s price action. You can see that the cycle analysis is pointing to potentially another market crash down to those December low. If that is the case then it could be the start of something very significant like a new bear market.

So that’s where we’re at in terms of the SP500 and at this point, we’ve got another 21 days or so before the SP500 should start breaking below our white trendline support level.

While cycle analysis helps us paint a clear picture of what to expect looking forward up to 45 days I still rely on my market trend charts to know when I should be buying or selling positions.

BONDS – THE NATURAL INVESTOR SAFE HAVEN

The first safe haven investors flock to when they become scared are bonds. By looking at the chart we can see they should start to find a bottom based on our cycles.  Bond prices are stuck within a large sideways channel and should hold their ground until the SP500 starts collapse. If the SP500 breaks down then we’re going to see bonds move higher and should eventually break out and make new highs.

GOLD – THE SAFEST OF SAFE HAVENS

The true safe Haven is gold when it comes to a global store of value for all countries and individuals.

Take a look at the price of gold, as you can see it rallied in June and again in August when the cycles bottomed and started an uptrend. Right now the price is in a much larger consolidation (bull flag pattern) which is a positive sign. In fact, this multi-month pause makes gold even more bullish in my opinion. The longer a commodity trades sideway the more powerful the next move will be.

You can see based on our cycles analysis and forecasted price gold still has some potential weakness for a couple of weeks.

Understanding cycles and how to trade with them is much harder than most people think. If you do not understand cycle skew then you will struggle to turn a profit. I have been trading with cycles since 2001 and still, I find them very deceiving at times.

In laymen terms, cycle skew is when a cycle moves against the direction of the underlying asset’s trend. The chart below shows this clearly with the white lines. In short, gold is in an uptrend, and when the cycle moves down against the assets trend price will in most cases trade sideways. Do not try to short cycle tops when the trend is up, no matter how tempting it may be.

The key is to wait for cycles to bottom, then get back into position for the next upward move in the cycle and price.

I had a fantastic chat with Adam Johnson from BullsEyeBrief today and if you are interested in more juicy details on the SP500, Gold, and how I trades be sure to listen to the most recent podcast we did together at the top of his website https://bullseyebrief.com/podcast/

THE TECHNICAL TRADERS THOUGHTS:

In short, the stock market continues to keep the bull market alive, but investors have started to move into gold as a safe haven. The fear of a market downturn is growing which is why gold has rallied and started a new bull market. The money flow into gold is very strong and is warning us that US equities could enter a bear market in the next few months and that possibly something much larger globally could be at play as well.

Gold continues to just hold up well even with the current cycle forecast trending lower. Overall, we’re looking at about 20 days or so and we could see metals and equity prices make some incredible moves.

Keep reading our research because our proprietary tools have been nailing all of these price targets and move many months in advance.  The next bottom in metals should set up when our cycle bottoms – then the next upside leg will begin.  This time Gold should target $1800 and Silver should target $21 to $24.  This will be an incredible move higher if it plays out as we suspect.

I urge you visit my ETF Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Bar!

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Dow Jones May Have Already Bottomed But SP500 & Nasdaq Have Further To Go

Have you been following our research?  Were you prepared for this move like we were?  Did you profit from this incredibly quick and volatile downside price move in the US markets?  What is it going to do to the foreign markets and what next?

Our team of researchers has been all over this setup many months before it happened.  In fact, we issued a research article on September 30 suggesting our predictive modeling system was warning of a big price rotation in the NQ and ES.  On September 21, we authored another research article suggesting a “massive price reversion may be days or weeks away”.  On September 7th, we authored yet another article suggesting “US STOCK MARKET HASN’T CLEARED THE STORM YET”

In case you missed our research, read and follow our work below.  While others may have completely missed this week’s breakdown move, we called it more than 30+ days ago and provided very clear and concise information for all of our followers to know what was about to breakdown in the markets.  Our morning coffee video analysis recap is the one thing… that single investment that’s going to turn into the greatest investment you’ve every made for your trading and investments.

If you find that you get analysis paralysis from reading too many articles from various news and trading sites feel free to do your self a favor just skip reading 5- 10 articles a day and being confused about what to do next get our Daily 8 Minute Technical Analysis of all the major markets and commodities. Forget the news and follow the markets with our proven technical analysis methods.

September 30, 2019: PREDICTIVE MODELING SUGGESTS BROAD MARKET ROTATION IN THE NQ & ES.

September 25, 2019: DEMOCRATS LAUNCH FORMAL IMPEACHMENT – WHAT SHOULD TRADERS EXPECT?

September 24, 2019: IS SILVER ABOUT TO BECOME THE SUPER-HERO OF PRECIOUS METALS?

September 23, 2019: IS THE TECHNOLOGY SECTOR ABOUT TO BREAK LOWER?

September 21, 2019: MASSIVE PRICE REVERSION MAY BE DAYS OR WEEKS AWAY

September 17, 2019: VIX TO BEGIN A NEW UPTREND AND WHAT IT MEANS

September 7, 2019: US STOCK MARKET HASN’T CLEARED THE STORM YET

August 30, 2019: TRANSPORTATION INDEX POINTS TO STOCK MARKETS WEAKNESS

August 13, 2019: GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS MOVE TO KEEP THE PARTY ROLLING – PART III

DOW JONES DAILY PRICE CHART

Now for the really good stuff, the YM may have already reached its lowest point and may begin to form a bottom near the 26000 levels.  This is the predicted downside price target level from our ADL predictive modeling system and it only took two big down-days to reach this level.  We really need to pay attention to how the markets react at this point and the YM will be key to understanding if the rest of the ADL predictions about the ES and NQ are likely to play out as we suggested.

DAILY SP500 INDEX

This ES chart highlights the downside price move to the 2880 level, our projected price target, and initial support level.  At this point, the ES has fallen, just like the YM, to levels that may prompt some price support.  We do believe the ES will fall further, possibly targeting the 2800 price level, before finding any real support.

Read the research articles listed in today’s research post.  We’ve been well ahead of this move the entire time and we called this move perfectly using our predictive modeling systems, Fibonacci price modeling systems, and other tools.  Our researchers have the ability to see into the future sometimes without predictive modeling tools.

In fact, we already have an idea of what will happen over the next 3 to 5+ years, but the price is our ultimate tool of choice.  We allow price to dictate what it wants to do, then use our predictive modeling tools to align price movement with our technical and predictive analysis – that is our secret, and you can’t get it anywhere else on the planet.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Be sure to ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar and SPECIAL OFFER TODAY ONLY – CLICK HERE

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. This quick and simple to understand guide on trading with technical analysis will allow you to follow the markets closely and trade with it. Never be caught on the wrong side of the market again and suffer big losses. PDF guide: Technical Trading Mastery

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

S&P 500 and GDXJ Trend Signals Posted Today

I have just posted our most current trend charts for the stock market and gold miners. As you know money generally rotates between risk-on (stock market) to risk-off (metals, bonds) so it’s important to know when you should shift your money from one asset class to the next.   These trends and swing trade charts which will update daily on our website are second to none (in my opinion), and they are only getting better with time.

GDXJ GOLD MINERS TEND & SIGNALS – SEPT 30

2019 has been a good year for those buying and holding GDXJ which is up 19% year to date, but with these signals for ur entry and exit points in the precious metals sector we are up over 42% alone just for the precious metals plays alone this year.

S&P 500 INDEX TREND & TRADE SIGNALS – SEPT 30

My ETF trading newsletter (Wealth Building Newsletter) is the best of all worlds in terms of analysis, forecasts, swing trades, and trend signals. Think of this Wealth Building Newsletter as a combination of VantagePoints market price prediction software allowing you to know what to expect today/tomorrow ($10,000+ value), PLUS the power of having trend and trade signals similar to VectorVest premium with real-time alerts ($1500 value). The best part is you get all this delivered each morning in one email, and a short 8 minute video telling you JUST what you need to know to profit from the next market move.   No FluffNo Software to Install or LearnNo More Information Overload – Analysis Paralysis   Get my special service limited time offer for only $62 a month when you join our 2yr subscription plan.

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Chris Vermeulen – Technical Traders Ltd

Investors are confident, bullish and buying stocks, but…

The Technical Traders Ltd has identified a unique price to volatility relationship between the SP500 and VIX index.  The calculations required to compute the VIX index are composed of a number of factors. That final value of the VIX index is reported on an annualized basis. This means that VIX index as already internalized the past 12 months price volatility into the current VIX levels.

We believe this increased VIX volatility expectation could be muting future VIX spikes and trading systems focus on the VIX Index.  The fact that the VIX as likely to internalized that large October to December 2018 price rotation and will not move beyond this price range until well after April or May of 2020 creates a unique problem for VIX systems and analysts. In short, the VIX has normalized a 20% price volatility expectation, or more, and will not reduce this expectation until well after April or May of 2020.

Taking a look at this weekly VIX chart clearly highlights the large 472% increase in January and February 2018.  The reason why the VIX increased by this incredible amount is that the prior 12 months price volatility was extremely muted.  The price rotation in the SPX was -343, for a total of -12%. The second VIX Spike between October and December of 2018 resulted in a 227% increase while price rotated more than 600 points, -20.61%, in the SPX. Obviously, the larger price movement in October through December 2018 would have likely resulted in a large VIX move if prior volatility expectations had remained the same.

It is our belief that the January to February 2018 price volatility rotation increase the VIX volatility expectations by at least 30 to 40%. The second, much larger, price rotation during October to December 2018 pushed the VIX volatility expectations higher by at least 10 to 15%. Our researchers believe the normalized VIX levels representing current price volatility are likely to stay above 12 or 13 until well after November or December 2019 if price volatility and expectations stay rather muted. Any additional large price rotations, to the downside, will likely continue to normalize or internalize increased VIX level volatility expectations.

This SPX chart helps to compare the relative VIX price increases in relation to the true SPX price volatility. We’ve also drawn a 12-month price window, as a red box on this chart, to highlight how the VIX attempts to normalize the past 12 months volatility going forward. It is our belief that a move above 500 to 600 points in the SPX may only prompt a rally in the VIX to near 28 to 30. Whereas, the same price swing from October to December 2018 prompted a VIX move to about 36. We would need to see the SPX move at least 900 points before the VIX will spike above 25 again.  Remember after January or February of 2020 the VIX may begin to contract again as price volatility stays muted for the rest of this year.

We currently believe a large price rotation may be set up for near the end of 2019. Our proprietary cycle modeling systems and extended research are suggesting this downside move may begin sometime near August or September of 2019. Remember, this new VIX research suggests that any large price downswing may result in a very moderate VIX price increase at first. In other words, things could get very interesting towards the end of 2019 for traders.

Please take a minute to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com and see how we have been navigating, trading and profiting from the market over the past 17 months, I think you will be pleasantly surprised. Our research team believes the US stock market will likely form an extended pennant formation over the next 60+ days.  Now is the time for us to plan and prepare for what may become a very volatile second half of 2019 and early 2020.

Become A Technical Trader Today Using
Our Trade and Investing Signals
CLICK HERE

Chris Vermeulen

This weeks Gold, Silver, Oil, and SPX Price Forecast

In fact, there are several super cycles starting to take place as we head into 2020 and beyond which Brad Matheny and layout in our new book: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

If you wanna become a technical trader with use and trade ETFs then be sure to join our Wealth Building Newsletter today and get our daily video analysis and swing trade alerts. In the past 17 months, our newsletter trade signals have generated 91% ROI for its subscribers, be sure to join before the markets start making new big moves and profit with us!

Chris Vermeulen www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

What has been Pushing S&P 500 Higher?

Subscribe to TheGoldAndOilGuy.com ETF newsletter and profit!CLICK HERE

U.S. Bonds Bounce?

The Commercial Hedgers are considered the smart money. The Speculators are considered the dumb money.

The rise in yields corresponds with the decline in Treasury prices.  A bounce is ahead of us in 2017.

Commercial traders have built up their most bullish position since February of 2013.

Commercial traders are now long 50% more long than they are short. This is the most bullish COT Ratio reading since July of 2011.

The speculative side of this trade have built up their most concentrated short position since February of 2013 and their largest net short position since March of 2012. The speculators are usually wrong. They set their recent COT Ratio high two weeks before the market topped out. The concentration of their short position should give pause to new short sellers.

The technical picture suggests a bounce is due.

 

BOND RISK LEVELS

Latest Value(s):

  • Last Reading: 2.0 December 27th, 2016

Extreme Values:

  • Excessive Optimism: 8.0
  • Excessive Pessimism: 2.0

bb1

 

 

BOND OPTIX WEEKLY

Latest Value(s):

  • Last Reading: 33.0 December 23rd,, 2016

Extreme Values:

  • Excessive Optimism: 70.0
  • Excessive Pessimism: 40.0

bb2

 

 

The Treasury prices are oversold on the March 30-year Treasury Bond futures.

The evidence is displayed with the buyers of US Treasury Bonds. I side with the commercial traders. The dramatic imbalance in positions between the commercial and speculative traders suggests a bounce higher is imminent.

bb3

 

My Elliot Wave Of Bonds – TLT:

Elliott Wave 2 Theory

Elliott Wave (2) is the first correction against the new trend

Elliott Wave (2) corrects wave (1), but can never extend beyond the starting point of wave one. Typically, the news is still bad. As prices retest the prior low, bearish sentiment quickly builds, and “the crowd” haughtily reminds all that the bear market is still deeply ensconced. Still, some positive signs appear for those who are looking: volume should be lower during wave two

Elliott Wave 3 Theory

Elliott Wave (3) is usually the strongest and longest wave

Elliott Wave (3) is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend. The news is now positive and fundamental analysts start to raise earnings estimates. Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to “get in on a pullback” will likely miss the boat. Trading the Wave (3) is usually the most profitable.  This will be a muti-year rally!

bb4

 

In Conclusion:

The new year of 2017 will not be a good one for global economies.  There will be a big slowdown throughout the global economies. The equity markets, as well, will be extremely negative in 2017.  The next yearly closing should be at a low level. The low of 2016,1800 in SPX, may be breached. The analysis is trying to say yes!  Be prepared to exit your long stock positions at the midpoint of 2017 and enter “safe havens”. See my gold forecast – Click Here

Bonds should start to rise and hold up through 2017. But will only rally in a big way once there is a major global event/crisis or the later stages of a bear market in US equities. Either way, likely not going to happen till late 2017 or beyond.

Get my swing trades and long-term asset positions at www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen