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US Stock Market Setting Up A Pennant Formation

As we’ve been warning over the past few weeks and months, the current price rotation in the US stock market is very much related to the strength of the US Dollar and the continued Capital Shift that is taking place as trade issues and currency valuations drive investors into the US equity and debt markets as protection against risk.  We talk about some of these new Super-Cycles starting and how we can take advantage of them in this new guide.

The US Dollar stalled today after a recent price decline from just above $98 to a current level near $96.60.  Over the past 15+ months, the US Dollar has risen from lows near $88 to highs near $98 – an 11.2% price rally.  Meanwhile, many other foreign currencies have collapsed over this same span of time.

We believe the continued Capital Shift is driving further investment in the US stock market and debt market as a way to avoid the risks of further currency valuation declines and as a means of protecting wealth.  Until this currency dynamic changes, we expect the strength of the US economy and US Dollar to continue to push investors into the US equity markets.

This being said, a very interesting dynamic is starting to set up.  Gold and Silver have started to move higher while Oil, Natural Gas and other commodities are pushing lower.  This type of activity in the commodity markets suggests some increased fear is driving investors away from speculating on increased global economic activities and pushing capital into expectations of a market top or deeper correction.

We’ve read recently where institutional traders have started initiating heavy short positions in the US markets and we believe these investors have jumped the gun a bit.  We don’t see how or where a massive US market collapse is likely given the current strength in the US Dollar and the US economy.  Yes, at some point this dynamic may shift and at some point, we may see a fairly deep correction of 12% to 18%.  We believe that a top may happen in August or September 2019 – after the US stock market (DOW) reaches new all-time highs above $30k.

Right now, we believe the first rotation of our expected Pennant/Flag formation is starting to set up and we look for early signs in the DOW and TRAN charts.

This TRAN chart shows price rotation near the CYAN resistance level originating from the late April peak and spanning the early May price high.  We believe this resistance level may play a key role in understanding how and when the next upside price leg begins to advance.  We expect a downside price rotation to take place pushing the TRAN towards the $9600 level over the next few days/weeks.

This YM chart highlights a similar price pattern, but clearly illustrates one key difference – the New Price High.  This fundamental element of Fibonacci price theory is that any attempt to break a past critical price high which results in a “new price high” designates the current trend as Bullish.  Within Fibonacci price theory, price is always seeking to establish new price highs or new price lows – AT ALL TIMES.  Therefore, a new price high or new price low is very significant.

The TRAN chart may continue to consolidate below the CYAN resistance level whereas the YM chart may attempt to push higher, with a bullish bias, setting up a Pennant/Flag formation as we expect.  This would indicate that even though economic and transportation expectations are waning, the bullish bias in the YM suggests the Capital Shift factor is still pushing the US stock market upward.

Pay close attention to that big blue ellipse near the top of the chart.  We drew that in place many months ago as an indicator of where we believe critical resistance is should the markets attempt to push higher and attempt new all-time highs.

We still believe this resistance is valid and as price rotates into the Pennant/Flag formation, we’ll extend this resistance forward – carrying the same slope and angle forward.  If the YM is going to attempt a move to above $30k before our expected August/September 2019 top setup, it will have to push well above this resistance zone to accomplish this move.

Watch Gold and Silver over the next 3 to 4 weeks as any perceived weakness will push the precious metals higher still.  We believe Gold will reach $1450 this summer and possibly higher before August as smart money rotates into the safe havens in anticipation of a bear market.

If you wanna become a technical trader with use and trade ETFs then be sure to join our Wealth Building Newsletter today and get our daily video analysis and swing trade alerts. In the past 17 months, our newsletter trade signals have generated 91% ROI for its subscribers, be sure to join before the markets start making new big moves and profit with us!

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

This weeks Gold, Silver, Oil, and SPX Price Forecast

In fact, there are several super cycles starting to take place as we head into 2020 and beyond which Brad Matheny and layout in our new book: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

If you wanna become a technical trader with use and trade ETFs then be sure to join our Wealth Building Newsletter today and get our daily video analysis and swing trade alerts. In the past 17 months, our newsletter trade signals have generated 91% ROI for its subscribers, be sure to join before the markets start making new big moves and profit with us!

Chris Vermeulen www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

US Markets Rally Hard – Could Another Big Upside Leg Begin?

Closing out the first week in June 2019, the US stock market rallied hard from recent lows and prompted many traders/investors to rethink their future plans.  At the same time, Gold and Silver began a decent price rally of their own while Oil found support just above $50.  It certainly has been an interesting week for traders.  One that was full of incredible opportunity as many symbols rotated 6 to 12% or more over the past 10+ days.

The fact that Oil is finding support above $50 while Gold and Silver continue to rally suggests that fear may be entering the metals market while Oil may have found a temporary price bottom near $50 to $51.  Weakness in the US Dollar is also helping both Oil and Metals to push higher.  Our recent research suggests that the US Dollar will find support near $95 indicates the US Dollar may fall a bit further – pushing Oil and Metals a bit higher.

The strength in the US stock market near the end of the week suggests fear of any US collapse or future economic concerns appears to be abated.  It is very unlikely the US major indexes would rally as they have on any extreme fear of any major US calamity or economic concerns.  A slightly weakening US Dollar and moderately strong US economic data continues to suggest the US stock market may continue to be the repository of funds for foreign investors for many years to come – or until something dramatic changes in the US.

It is rather simple to understand the capital process that is at work in the global economy at the moment; until foreign market valuations and expectations appear to be opportunistic for future returns, the US Dollar and the US stock market are the most likely targets for foreign investment and safety.  Weakening currencies, weakening global economies and weakening commodity prices will push capital away from foreign markets and into safety.  Safety will be found in the US markets, precious metals and possibly Crypto currencies.  Anything that avoids deflationary risks and credit/debt risks.

This YM Weekly chart highlighting our Fibonacci price modeling system shows how dramatic the upside price reversal was by the end of last week.  The closing candles created an Engulfing Bullish candlestick pattern which is typically quite bullish.  The fact that price closed above the GREEN Fibonacci trigger level is further indication that a renewed price rally may begin soon.  Support near $24,000 appears to be quite strong and any further downside price risk must first break this level.  As long as support holds and price continues an upside bias, there is a very strong potential for a move to above $28,000 in the works.

This NQ chart highlights a similar price pattern and suggests the NQ needs to climb above $7600 before a true rally can begin.  Ultimately, the upside targets for this move are near $8500 or higher based on current price rotation.  Support near $6800 is critical – so price must stay above this level for any future rally to continue.

We authored a VIX/Volatility article just a few days ago that highlighted our believe that the VIX would trade lower, within a sideways price channel till near the end of July or August 2019 – then begin another VIX Spike move upward.  This coincides with the current research we are seeing where the US stock market will likely continue to push higher, very possibly setting new all-time highs again, before any real risk of any downside price collapse happens.

Follow our research and don’t miss these opportunities.  We’ve been warning our followers for months that 2019 and 2020 are going to be incredible years for skilled traders.  These recent 10 to 20% moves in Gold, Silver, Oil and many ETFs are just the beginning.  Our research team and trading team are ready to help you find and execute for better success.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

ADL Predictive Modeling Suggests A Big Move In Silver

Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is suggesting that Silver is currently well below the projected ADL price level.  We believe the current pricing pressure in Silver is related to global central banks attempt to regulate precious metals prices over the past 24+ months.  We believe the upside move in Gold will eventually roll into Silver and the ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting Silver is currently 34% undervalued.

Our ADL predictive modeling system is capable of identifying highly probable price outcomes in the future by tracking and mapping historically accurate similar price DNA patterns.  The chart below shows exactly why we believe Silver is setting up an ADL price anomaly where a big upside price reversion should take place over the next 30 to 90 days.

It is difficult to attain an exact date for the reversion move, yet we know that the ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting Silver should be trading above $17 right now.  Over the next 4+ weeks, the ADL suggests price should be above $18.  The current price, near $13.95, is well below these ADL predicted levels.  Thus, we believe a price reversion process will take place to drive the price of Silver upward toward the ADL predicted levels.

Now, if you take a look at our Silver Cycle Momentum chart below you can see that the current price of silver is just starting what looks like a new uptrend.

We believe the current upside price move in Silver is just the beginning.  This may, very well, be the last time we’ll see sub $14 levels for quite a while in Silver.  We believe skilled traders should be taking advantage of these historically low levels right away to prepare for the upside price move. Keep in mind the market does not move straight up and while I am bullish this me not be the exact time to by silver.

Become a technical trader by watching my daily analysis video each and every morning before the opening bell, and take the same trades I do with my trade alerts at the Wealth Building Newsletter.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

When you contemplate negative interest rates, I would rather own Gold…

With global equities taking the plunge, bond market turmoil, talk of negative interest rates and a bullish COT Silver Report, the future for Gold and precious metals just keeps getting brighter.

Add to that the threat of Mexican tariffs and the push for a Gold-backed currency in Malaysia and you have the makings of an exciting Weekly Wrap Up.

Eric cheers on the Raptors, chimes in on Gold and answers some of your questions this week on the Sprott Money Weekly Wrap Up.

Get Chris Vermeulen’s Gold Swing and Investing Trade Signals

Is Silver The Sleeper Rally Setup Of A Lifetime?

Our research team believes Silver could be the Sleeper Rally setup of a lifetime for investors if the global economic cards continue to get scattered and crumpled over the next 10+ years.  The recent rally in Gold got a lot of attention last Friday (the end of May 2019).  We had been warning about this move for the past 8+ months and generated an incredible research post in early October 2018 that clearly highlighted our belief that Gold would peak above $1300 early in 2019, then stall and move toward $1270 near April/May 2019, then begin an incredible upside price rally in June/July/Aug 2019.  We couldn’t have been more clear about this prediction and we posted it publically in October 2018. See This Previous Gold Forecast Snapshot

Now, our research team is going to share with you some incredible insights into what may become the most incredible trade setup we’ve seen in the past 12+ years – the Sleeper Silver Setup.

Going all the way back to the early 1970s, when the Hunt Brothers ran most of the metals markets, we can see the incredible price rally in Silver from $1.28 per ounce to nearly $41.50 in late 1979.  This move setup with a very simple pattern – a high price breakout in 1973 that broke a sideways price channel and initiated a nearly 6+ year rally resulting in an incredible 3142% price increase from the lows.

Could it happen again?

Well, after this incredible price peak, the price of Silver languished and moved lower, eventually bottoming in 1991 near $3.50.  After that bottom setup, the price of Silver setup another sideways price channel and traded within this range until a 2004 High Price Breakout happened AGAIN.  It seemed inconsequential at the time – a rogue high price near $8.50.  Maybe that was it and maybe price would just rotate lower back to near the $4.00 range??

This High Price Breakout setup an incredible price rally that resulted in a continue price advance over the same 6+ year span of time.  This rally was not as big as the 1974 to 1979 price rally in percentage terms, but it was much bigger in terms of price valuation.  The 1979 price peak ended at $41.50 and resulted in a $40.25 price increase whereas the 2011 price peak resulted in a $46.32 price increase.

Will it happen again in our lifetime?

As incredible as it might seem, we believe Silver is setting up another High Price Breakout pattern that should conclude within the next 2 to 4 months with a price high near $22.50 to $24.00 (see our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling projections below).  After this peak is reached, hold on to your hat because we believe the upside price rally could mimic past rallies and attempt to immediately move the price of Silver to well above $85 per ounce.  Ultimately, we can only guess as to where the top of this move may end – but we can safely estimate it will likely top somewhere between $90 and $550. This, of course, will require some type of major bear market is other asset classes and possibly some global crisis but we believe it is very possible in due time.  Our predictive modeling systems will help us determine where the actual price peak will be as this unfolds over time.

And there you have it – one of the most incredible trade setups you’ll ever see in your lifetime.  Yes, it may happen twice in your life or more, but we believe this setup in Silver is just weeks or months from initiating the next upside price leg (the High Price Breakout) and we are alerting you now to be prepared.

UNIQUE PHYSICAL SILVER OPPORTUNITY:

We should start to see money flow into the safe-haven assets like the Utility sector, bonds, and most importantly precious metals. I anticipated this and our XLU utilities ETF taken with members was a quick 3.11% winner. Our VIX ETF trade also hit our 25% profit target within a few days of entry.

Now, I have a few silver rounds here at my desk I am going to give away and ship out to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans listed below, and you will receive:

1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)

2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)

I only have few silver rounds I’m giving away
so upgrade or join now before its too late!

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!

Chris Vermeulen

Gold, Silver, Oil, Cryptos

UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY: First, we typically see stocks sell-off and as the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” which is what has been happening.

So what does this mean? It means we should start to see money flow into the safe-haven assets like the Utility sector, bonds, and most importantly precious metals. I anticipated this and our XLU utilities ETF taken with members has already hit our first profit target, and our VIX ETF trade also hit out 15% profit target and we the balance of it is still up 25% as of yesterday.

Second, my birthday was this month, and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.

For May I am going to give away and ship out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans listed below, and you will receive:

1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)

2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)

I only have few silver rounds I’m giving away
so upgrade or join now before its too late!

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!

Chris Vermeulen

US Memorial Day Weekend Market Analysis

The US Memorial Day weekend is set up to become a very interesting time for investors.  The EU voting is complete and the change in EU leadership may move the markets a bit.  China appears to be playing a waiting game – attempting to hold the US/Trump at bay until after the 2020 US elections.  This week is certain to be very interesting for traders/investors.

The European stocks moved higher in trading on Monday as the relief from the EU election event and support for auto shares pushed the markets higher. The transition in the EU over the next few months will solidify into a political and social agenda.  The EU leadership must acknowledge these future objectives of all parties in order to maintain some level of calm.  It is evident that many EU nations are relatively satisfied with the current leadership while others are transitioning into more centrist leadership.  The next 4+ years will be full of further transition in the EU.

China is another global issue that is relatively unsettled.  We’ve been doing some research with regards to China and the potential future political and economic pathways that may become evident in the near-term future.  Our biggest concern is that China has been inflating their economic levels for decades and the true scope of the Chinese economy may be much weaker than everyone expects.  If our suspicions are correct and China has been inflating economic levels for many years, then the transition to a consumer/services-driven economy may be dramatically over-inflated and the US/China trade issues could be biting much harder than the Chinese want to admit.

The “Sell in May and go away” market saying may become absolute truth in 2019.  Our expectations are still suggesting that an attempt at new market highs may take place before August 2019, but the current market rotation (lower) is setting up a very strong potential for further downside price action at the moment.  Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting the $7294 level in the NQ is key support.  Below this level, the NQ could break much lower and potentially target $6850 or lower.

 

The YM is setting up a similar price pattern with resistance near 25,840.  We believe this resistance will push prices lower as we move further into early June.  The potential for some type of surprise economic data or Fed/Global market move after this weekend is somewhat higher than expected.  There is a lot of shifting taking place throughout the globe and we believe this turbulence will reflect in the US market soon enough.

 

As of right now, our expectations are that a brief upside price rally will take place over the next 4~7+ days before a continued downside price trend may become evident.  Pay attention to the news cycles for key elements that could drive the US stock market lower.  We will continue to update you with regards to our proprietary research and expectations.  The next 7+ days will likely be nothing but sideways price rotation within a Pennant/Flag formation.

Read our research to understand how this setup coincides with the GOLD price setup and why it is important to understand why July 2019 is so important.  Please take a minute to review these recent research posts that focus more on the US Dollar and Gold, and also the July turning point for US Stocks.

4 DAYS LEFT TO GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS WITH SUBSCRIPTION!

We continue to see money flow into the safe-haven assets like the Utility sector, bonds, and most importantly precious metals. I anticipated this and our XLU utilities ETF taken with members for 4.4% already, and our VIX ETF trade we closed for a 25% last week.

For May I am going to give away and ship out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans listed below, and you will receive:

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!

Chris Vermeulen

Eye Opening Currency Charts – Why Metals Are Falling

The incredible strength of the US Dollar over the past 12+ months has put downward pricing pressure on Gold and Silver.  I believe this downward pricing pressure could be muting any upside price advanced in Gold and Silver by as much as 20% to 30% or more.

The US Dollar has turned into the global “safe-haven” for international investors and foreign governments.  Over the past 6 to 12 months, or more, the US Dollar has been the only fiat currency to see any strength and upward trend.  All the other major global currency levels have fallen – some dramatically lower.

The EUR, GBP, AUD, CAD, and CHF have all fallen sharply over the past 6 to 12 months as the strength of the US Dollar and US Economy continued to surprise many.  We’ve been calling this a “capital shift” that started back in 2015~2016 – when the 2016 US Election cycle began and China began to implement capital controls.  At the same time, foreign nations such as Brazil and Venezuela began to shift into an economic abyss while the UK dealt with BREXIT negotiations.  All of these external factors created an environment where the US Dollar became a global safe-haven for global investors – all of which were seeking US equities and US Dollars to hedge weakening foreign currencies and weak foreign stock market performance.

 

I think that the US Dollar strength, in combination with the continued foreign Gold acquisitions has amounted to a resolved “reversion” in Gold prices that could reflect a 10% to 20% price anomaly.  In other words, the strength of the US Dollar has muted the advancing price of Gold by our estimates of 2x to 2.5x the strength of the US Dollar.  Over the past 12 months, the US Dollar rallied from 89.42 (April 2018) to 97.92 (May 2019: current price).  This reflects a 9.60% increase in the value of the US Dollar.

If my research is correct, the price of Gold should have rallied by about 18% to 26% from the April 2018 levels IF the US Dollar had not appreciated in value as it has.  Therefore, the true price of Gold should be somewhere near $1600 (18% above April 2018 levels) to $1700 (26% above April 2018 levels) if we attempted to eliminate the “reversion effect” of the US Dollar strength.

We come to this conclusion by statistically analyzing the US Dollar strength after April 2018 and how Gold reacted to this strength – by falling over 12.5% from near $1350 to a level near $1170.  That range of time reflected an 8% price advance in the US Dollar.  Thus, a ratio of 1.5 to 1 has clearly been established within that move.  More recently, from August 2018 till now, the US Dollar has rallied 1.47% while the price of Gold has rallied 8.87%.  The current price of Gold is -5.60% below the April 2018 price level.

If we were to assume that the rally in the US Dollar deflated the price appreciation of Gold by nearly equal ratios, then we take the April 2018 price of Gold ($1350) and add the related price variances of Gold over this span (essentially reverting the price of Gold to April 2018 US Dollar levels : $1350 * 1.27) and we end up with $1714.50.  This reflects a greater than 30% price anomaly from the current price of Gold.

Gold Futures – Goldchart by TradingView

We need to ask ourselves one simple question, what would it take for Precious Metals and the global stock markets to revert back to these expected price levels?  Would it be a move away from the US Dollar?  Would it be some shift in foreign currency valuations?  Would it be a combination of factors that drive greater fear into the markets and reflect a US Dollar valuation decline?  In the second part of this article, I will explore some possibilities and explain why I believe we are just days or weeks away from finding out exactly what will cause this price anomaly to revert along with my proprietary gold price cycle forecast.

I just highlighted the strength of the US Dollar in comparison to other foreign currencies and suggested this US Dollar strength may have created a “price anomaly” setup in Precious Metals – specifically Gold.  I believe a very unique setup is happening in the global markets right now and that the price of Gold is substantially undervalued compared to risks that are present throughout the global economies.  I believe the strength of the US Dollar has muted the upside potential of Gold by at least 20% to 30% over the past 12+ months and I believe a shift is taking place where Gold is starting to break these pricing constraints.

If the analysis is correct, I believe traders only have about 3~6+ weeks before we’ll find out why and what will cause this price anomaly to revert back to what I believe is “price normalcy”.  The strength of the US Dollar, as well as the continued global “capital shift” where foreign investors are piling into the US stock market and US Dollar related investments, have continued to put incredible pricing pressures on Precious Metals.  We believe this “shift” may be about to revert back to some levels of normalcy in term of Precious Metals pricing.

I believe a major Pennant/Flag formation is setting up in Gold where this price anomaly event will be resolved.  This type of price anomaly reset, or reversion will prompt a massive upside price advance in Gold and Silver that will attempt to restore proper pricing levels to the Precious Metals commodities.  I believe we are just weeks away from the completion of this Pennant/Flag apex/breakout event and believe the upside price targets identified align with a series of key events that are likely to unfold over the Summer months of 2019.  Take a few minutes to read the recent three-part research post regarding these events and how they relate to the global stock/commodity markets here.

 

Our predictive modeling systems have been warning that a price advance in Gold and Silver will take place between April/May of 2019 and Aug/Sept or 2019.  We are calling this the “initial upside price leg” because we believe this upside price move will be just the beginning of a much larger move higher for Precious Metals.  We’ve highlighted some of the biggest concerns we currently have related to the global stock market price appreciation levels and the concerns related to the US Presidential Election cycle in precious articles – Please read them here :

We believe it is imperative to alert all investors/traders of this event and to attempt to allow all investors/traders to plan for what may become one of the biggest global stock market swings in recent history as well as one of the biggest moves in Precious Metals in history.

My proprietary cycle analysis and trade signals are suggesting a mild price recovery in Gold will prompt moderate upside pricing pressure over the next 10~20+ days.  This aligns perfectly with our Pennant/Flag formation, see the previous chart.  It would be expected that Gold prices would form a moderate price support level near $1270 before moving back up to the upper Pennant price channel, near $1295.  Then, price should set up the “Apex Breakout” move – which will likely be a “washout-low” price rotation (somewhere near or below $1270) with a very quick reversal to the upside – breaking $1330 and rallying much higher.  This type of rotation is very common and often prompts traders to jump into short positions on the “washout-low” formation before getting clobbered on the reversal/rally.  Be prepared.

 

Lastly, we want to alert everyone to a chart we’ve been following that could become a determining factor for the future of the global stock market levels, the US Dollar and Precious Metals.  The one thing we don’t want to see is a massive decline in yield in the 2 Year Treasuries.  This would indicate failed growth expectations throughout the globe and, in particular, reflect concerns that the US markets could contract/decline in-line with further global market devaluations.

We’ve already been trying to warn investors that the US Presidential Election cycle will likely create a stalling price pattern in the US stock market.  We’ve been warning, for the past 18 months, that Gold is setting up a massive bottom/breakout formation.  We’ve recently highlighted the global concerns (Europe, China, US, and others) that may combine to create something like a “perfect storm” for currencies and the global equities markets.  If that translates into “yield weakness” in the US Treasuries, think about how that would translate into the Precious Metals “reversion” that we are suggesting is only a few weeks away?

Chart courtesy of www.crescat.net

 

We strongly urge investors to pay very close attention to our research and prepare for this event.  Yes, the Capital Shift event is still taking place and as long as nothing disrupts this shift, capital will continue to flow into the US Dollar and US Equities.  Our concern is that the charts are telling us we are very near to the end of this event cycle and we are alerting all of our followers so they can prepare for this move.  It may start out mildly – it may not.  We do know that our predictive modeling systems are suggesting that July/August 2019 are on our radar for a major price rotation/event.

UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY

First, we typically see stocks sell-off and as the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” which is what has been happening.

So what does this mean? It means we should start to see money flow into the safe-haven assets like the Utility sector, bonds, and most importantly precious metals. I anticipated this and our XLU utilities ETF taken with members has already hit our first profit target, and our VIX ETF trade also hit out 15% profit target and we the balance of it is still up 25% as of yesterday.

Second, my birthday was this month, and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.

For May I am going to give away and ship out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans listed below, and you will receive:

1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)

2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)

I only have 25 silver rounds I’m giving away
so upgrade or join now before its too late!

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!

Happy May Everyone!

Chris Vermeulen

 

Markets Rally Hard – Is The Volatility Move Over?

Many traders are watching the recent 3-day rally thinking “this is the end of the downside price move” and targeting new entry positions for the eventual upside price breakout.  We’re here to warn you that our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting we could see more volatility over the next 45+ days before a price breakout sets up.

Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is something we like to keep away from public view for the most part.  It is not something we share with the public often because it tends to show quite a bit of information about the future to skilled eyes.  Today, you are going to get a glimpse of the ADL system on Weekly and Monthly TRAN charts to help you understand what to expect over the next 45+ days.

The ADL predictive modeling system is capable of learning from past price action and modeling “price DNA markers” based on a custom inference engine we created for this utility.  That means it is capable of learning from any chart, any interval, any price data and any type of price activity while mapping the price data, technical data and corresponding future price activity into what we call and DNA price chain.  After that mapping process is complete, we are able to ask it to show us what it has found and how current price bars align with the DNA mapping to show us what is likely for the future.

This Monthly TRAN ADL chart shows two ADL DNA Marker data points.  The first data point, April 2018, consisted of 12 unique ADL price instances and suggests a moderate upside price bias may continue until near the end of July or early August 2019.  August 2019 appears to be a “price anomaly” setup with a target price level near 10,000 for that month.  Thus, August 2019, or any time +/- 30 days from that month, could be very volatile.  The second data point originates from June 2018 and consists of 4 unique ADL price instances.  The lack of ADL price instances (4 vs 12) is not as important as the predicted outcome of this DNA marker.  ADL instances with small numbers of matching instances tend to be unique price data – something that is not seen in price that often and somewhat rare.  This ADL data point is predicting a moderate upside price bias until June/July 2019, then the DNA marker is telling us that a downward price bias should start and that these future predictions do not have a strong probable outcome.  This means August through November 2019 could be very volatile and result in unexpected price actions.

 

This next chart is a Weekly TRAN ADL chart that suggests 2 or 3 more weeks of moderate upside price bias before a big decline in prices headed into June 2019.  If we follow the DASH lines on this chart and count the weeks going forward, it appears June 2019 will result in a moderate price decline toward the recent lows – possibly a bit lower.  Then it appears the TRAN will stall near 10,200 – possibly moving a bit higher near the middle/end of July.  After that, the ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting that the TRAN will break down below the 10,200 level and potentially head much lower – towards the 9,600.

The timing of this is interesting because it suggests the current US/China trade issues will not result in more price decline for the next 30+ days.  Yes, we’ll like to see more price rotation, but the potential for a massive price decline over this span of time is rather muted.  We may see a retest of the 10,200 level near Mid-June, but price should find support at that time and recover towards the 10,400 to 10,500 level near early July.  Mid to End July looks very weak – where price may break aggressively lower, below 10,200 and attempt to target the 9,600 level.

This next chart is a Weekly TRAN chart showing our Adaptive Fibonacci price modeling system.  The Fibonacci price modeling system is one of our standard analysis tools.  This utility is suggesting that price weakness may set up a Descending Flag formation over the next few weeks/months.  This type of pattern suggests that a breakout move will result after the apex is reached.  The YELLOW trend line on this chart may become a downside price target if our ADL predictions are correct and the TRAN price breaks down toward the 9,600 level or lower.

 

Take another look at the end of the first, Monthly ADL chart.  See those YELLOW upside ADL arrows on the right side of the chart?  Those are the current ADL predictions for October, November, December 2019.  This prediction suggests that the Apex Breakout move at the end of the Descending Flag formation will be an upside price breakout sometime near the end of 2019.

Be prepared for another increase in volatility in Early June and Early/Mid July.  Our predictive modeling systems are suggesting a breakdown in price will happen near these dates and this downside move should result in increased VIX/Volatility when the breakdown happens.

This does not appear to be the BIG CRASH that everyone is talking about.  It appears to be a normal price pattern setup as weakness settles in and the TRAN appears to retest the 10,000 level (support) with the potential of moving slightly below this level.

We’ve just highlighted what our predictive modeling system is currently proposing will happen over the next 6+ months in the TRAN.  If you know anything about the TRAN, you should be able to translate this into a trading road-map for the next 6+ months in the US markets.  What is the value of having something like the ADL – being able to look into the future and see what is likely to happen 4 to 6+ months into the future?  Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we deploy these proprietary tools for our members to help them find and execute better trades.

This is proving to be an incredible trading year for traders who follow our trade alerts newsletter.

For active swing traders, you are going to love our daily trading analysis. On May 1st we talked about the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” and that is exactly what is happening now right on queue. In fact, we closed out our SDS position on Thursday for a quick 3.9% profit and our other new trade started Thursday is up 20% already.

Second, my birthday is only three days away and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.

Right now I am going to give away and shipping out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. I only have a few left as they are going fast so be sure to upgrade your membership to a longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans, and you will receive:

1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)

2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)

I only have a few more silver rounds I’m giving away
so upgrade or join now before its too late!

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!

Happy May Everyone!

Chris Vermeulen