On July 31, 2019, the US Federal Reserve decreased the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) by 25 basis points. We believe the US Fed was pushed to take this action for three reasons that are directly related to the fear and greed that is abundant in the global markets.
Reason #1 Fed Had To Cut Rates
First, the US Fed is very concerned that the US housing market has stagnated and weakened over the past 16+ months. The Fed has pushed the FFR towards our modeling system’s upper boundary (2.0 to 2.25) many months ago and this has pushed the housing market over a supply/demand precipice that may already be too far gone for a substantial recovery. The US Fed, attempting to prevent another housing market collapse, must attempt to ease lending in an attempt to spark new real estate activity.
Reason #2 Fed Had To Cut Rates
Second, the US Fed must attempt to ease the foreign market US Dollar carry trade liabilities and attempt to allow more US Dollar opportunity in the foreign economy. Over the past 2 to 3+ years, the supply of US Dollars within the foreign markets has diminished considerably while demand has increased. Because of this, a US Dollar shortage currently exists in much of the global economy. The US Fed is attempting to allow more US Dollar supply by lowering the FFR.
Reason #3 Fed Had To Cut Rates
Lastly, the US Fed, attempting to accommodate a more adaptable rates policy in order to more adequately facilitate the global economic turmoil that is persistent throughout the world. Even though the US economy is still very strong and showing only mild signs of weakness currently, the US Fed felt the need to become more accommodating to allow more flexibility for global central banks to navigate through the current trade and geopolitical issues.
Dollar Hits Resistance And Should Reverse Down
Metals reacted by moving lower as the US Dollar rallied after the Fed announcement. The US Dollar is currently near the upper price channel that we believe will prompt a weaker US Dollar over the next few weeks and will likely prompt a move lower over the next few weeks – allowing metals the ability to skyrocket higher over this same span of time.
Gold Set To Rock Higher
Gold is reacting to the US Dollar/Fed news by rotating within the black line and magenta arc levels that we highlighted weeks ago. These Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs highlight key price levels that are acting as resistance for Gold right now. Once price breaks these levels, Gold will skyrocket above $1550 and likely target $1650 or higher.
Silver Ready To Rally
As we’ve highlighted several times, Silver is likely the best trading opportunity set up on the planet right now. We’ve highlighted where we are currently (“We Are Here”) and where we believe the price will move to in the future on this chart. Using our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc levels and Fibonacci price ranges, we can “guess” where price may target in the future and where peaks and valleys may form. We believe silver is setting up for a move to levels above $21~$22 right now and will begin this move higher within the next 2 to 5 weeks.
Even though the US Fed is attempt to act as a savior for the global central banks and attempting to easy US monetary policy while the global markets attempt to address their political and economic issues, we believe the US economy is uniquely strong in relation to other global economies and we believe the fear/greed factors will continue to increase over the next 15+ months or longer.
Gold and Silver are setting up to become some of the best trades we’ve seen in a very long time for us, technical traders. We believe Silver could rally well above $30 over a very short period of time. Don’t worry about the rotation in the metals markets as a reaction to the US Fed. The real news is that the US Dollar has reached the upper price channel limit which should prompt a bigger upside move in the US metals.
CRUCIAL WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500
In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.
I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.
On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.
More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where each commodity and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.
Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter. You won’t want to miss this big move, folks. As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months.
Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.
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https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/H1.png438850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-02 10:00:192019-08-02 10:00:19Metals React To Fed Shockwaves – Ready For Next Move
Unless you were following our research, see below, and were already aware of the many warning signs we’ve been posting in our continued efforts to help traders and to help educate skilled investors, you were probably caught completely off guard by the news of near trade tariffs last Sunday, May 5th. Let’s face it, the short position in the VIX was an indication that institutional and retail investors had gone “all in” on this rally and had failed to even consider anything disrupting the narrow range price rally that had been in place over the past 45+ days. Well, all of that changed on Sunday night and many traders woke up Monday morning to the INDU down nearly -500 points.
The most incredible facet of this rotation was that the markets had already discounted the trade tariff news and began to rally almost immediately after the opening bell on Monday. Sure, we are not out of the woods at this time with the potential for continued price volatility and price rotation, but the fact that the US stock market was capable of rallying back from a very deep opening price shows just how resilient the US stock market and the economy really are. The issue this time, we feel, will be felt in the global market and in foreign currency rates. We’ll get into that more as we continue.
In case you missed our most recent research posts, we suggest you take a few minutes to review the following posts to bring you up to speed with our analysis/research. Reviewing these posts may help you to better understand the rest of this article and our expectations for the next 60 to 90 days.
Now that we’ve covered a bit of our past research, allow me to attempt to summarize things a bit.
_ First, we continue to expect new high prices to be established over the next 30+ days. Yes, volatility will be larger than it was 30 days ago, but we believe the “Shake-out” is just starting and we believe the US stock market will continue to push higher – at least for the next 3+ weeks.
_ Second, we are very cautious of the July/August 2019 Cycle Predictions, see above. We believe these cycles could be a warning of a major price trend change that prompts some type of “dynamic shift” in the global markets. Right now, it appears a “Shake-out” in China/Asia may be in play. But we believe a bigger “Shake-out” may be brewing somewhere else in the world.
_ Lastly, we believe any top formation in the US Stock market will result in a Pennant/Flag formation, rotational top formation, that will give traders ample time to reposition their trades and reduce risks.
Just a few days ago, we posted this research to help traders understand just how close the markets are to topping and what to expect – see below. We continue to believe this “Shake-out” is more about disrupting low volatility expectations and less about a major market top in the US stock market
The Chinese stock markets will likely continue to drop as new expectations are suddenly realized and trade issues, especially IP and future IP partnerships, become a major contention moving forward. Every step China takes, right now, is very fragile in terms of US expectations and the ability to show the world China is willing to become a responsible player in the technology field. If China fails to realize this, the world will clearly see that China’s intention is to take as much as they can from global technology leaders while stuffing their pockets full of foreign cash – it will not end well.
The Shockwave that has just started to unfold across the global stock market/financial world is that trade, economic expectations, and currency valuations will continue to “revalue” to address these ongoing concerns until some formal resolution works itself into place. In the meantime, any new issues that become present could further complicate these “revaluation” efforts. The concert just started, folks. We have a long way to go before this is all over with.
This Weekly YM chart showing our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting we have a “long way to go” before we could consider any downside price rotation a major risk. The recent price highs in this YM chart have prompted a Bearish Fibonacci Trigger Price near the December 2018 lows (see the RED line near the $21,450 level). You might be asking, “why so low?”. This “learning modeling system” attempts to learn from price and attempts to identify where key price levels are that MUST be reached for a confirmed trend change. As price has continued to rotate within a very wide range over the past 7+ months, the Fibonacci modeling system is suggesting that price could fall all the way back to near the December lows WITHOUT triggering a new “long term” bearish price trend.
In other words, the current price range that would constitute “normal price volatility” is anywhere between $21,450 and $26,950. When we said to expect increased volatility, we really meant it. This is a $5,500 range in the YM that could become a “normal volatility zone”.
The NQ Weekly chart, on the other hand, is providing us a much clearer Bearish Fibonacci Trigger level, near $7,393. Once the price is able to close below this level, then we would consider the NQ entering a new Bearish trend as long as price stays below the $7,393 level. If it was to rally back above this level, then the trigger is negated as long as it stays above the trigger level.
Pay very close attention to the YELLOW price channels that originate back in early 2018. Those levels are likely to play a very important role in going forward as price attempts to establish new price ranges/channels throughout this expected price rotation and volatility.
Lastly, we’ve been warning that the Financial Sector could come under some intense pressures over the next 5 to 16+ months as all of this “Shockwave” plays out. The reason we believe the Financial sector is vulnerable to this crazy volatility is that the exposure to multiple levels of capital risk could complicate the long-term earnings capabilities of this sector. Almost all of these firms are involved in Personal, Corporate/Business, Real Estate, Trade, Global financing, Currency, and Bond related business ventures. These firms are not remotely immune to any “Shockwave” – they are located right in the Bullseye/Target zone.
We believe the XLF may come under increased pressure over the next 3~6+ weeks as the Shockwave event continues to unfold. We believe issues with Personal/Consumer credit will be the first sign of a Shockwave event and further pressures from Corporate/Business/Global/Currencies would likely be the second shoe to drop over the next 8+ months. We believe a rotation in the XLF to near $25 is very likely over the next 3~6 months and that this move could be the result of extended risk factors originating from the “Shockwave event” we’ve been suggesting is currently unfolding.
Skilled traders should be watching technology stocks, the NASDAQ, the INDU, the Financial Sector and commodity prices over the next 4+ months for any signs that the Shockwave event is increasing in amplitude. Additionally, pay very close attention to how currencies are moving and where the US Dollar is moving in relation to other currencies. Gold and Silver should also be on your radar over the next few months as well. Lastly, prepare for the major cycle event in July/August 2019.
The past four tradings sessions with volatility has kept us busy check out our most recent index trades on the SP500
Our advice continues to be to look for opportunities as the volatility increases and continue to expect an upside price bias in the US stock market – at least until we have any strong evidence that price trend has changed. Don’t buy into the doom-sayers just yet. In our opinion, this US upside price move is not over yet.
If you want to become a technical trader and pull money from the markets during times when most others cannot be sure to join the Wealth Trading Newsletter today. Plus, for a few days only I’m giving away and shipping Free Silver Rounds to subscribers who join our select membership levels.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/chart14.png387700adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-05-07 22:31:392019-05-07 22:36:44US/China Trade Issues Create SHOCKWAVE Around The Globe
