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Currencies Show A Shift to Safety And Maturity – What Does It Mean?

Recent rotation in multiple foreign currencies hints at the fact that a new stage of the “Capital Shift” process is taking place and that skilled technical investors need to pay very close attention to how these currencies continue to react over the next 3 to 6+ months.  In the recent past, most of the world’s foreign currencies were declining in value while the US Dollar continued to strengthen.  In fact, we authored many research articles about these trends and how weakness in foreign currencies will drive new foreign investment into the US stock markets for two simple reasons; strength and security.

Now that a few of the world’s most mature economies, and some that may surprise you, are starting to change directions, we may be beginning a new stage of the “capital shift” process that may open up multiple new opportunities for skilled technical traders.  As the old saying goes, “follow the money”.  At this point, if our research team is correct about these price trend changes, following the money may mean opening our eyes to new investment opportunities across the Pacific and Atlantic – as well as very near to the US.

Before we continue, we suggest reading the following research post to understand a bit about the history of our research and be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.

September 10, 2019: METALS & THE US DOLLAR: HOW IT ALL RELATES – PART I

The first thing we want to highlight is our belief that the US Dollar and US stock market should continue to provide price strength and upward price opportunity – even throughout any price correction or contraction that our researchers may identify.  Our predictive modeling systems have shown us what we believe to be an incredibly accurate prediction of future price activity over the next 3 to 5+ years.

Even though we are not going to share that research with you today, the one thing we want all of our followers to understand is that the US stock market, and likely the US Dollar, are poised to continue to see longer-term upward price growth over the next 3+ years.  Yes, there may be a few price rotations/declines throughout this process and we need to be aware that price naturally attempts these types of rotations in an effort to provide future price support, price exploration and future price trends.  The price must always attempt to establish new highs or lows throughout a trending process.

US DOLLAR

The US Dollar has been trending higher since early 2018.  We believe the US Dollar will continue to push higher within the price channels we’ve drawn on this chart and, eventually, attempt to move to levels above 100 near the end of 2020 (or slightly after this date).  We don’t believe anything will disrupt the continued strength of the US Dollar unless some major economic/credit crisis completely destroys the support of the global economic markets and takes everything down with it.

Our researchers believe the new shift in the “capital shift” process of global investing is centered around the concept that certain global currencies, as well as their associated stock markets and strategic stock sectors, may have reached a point where price is exceedingly below fair value and when one considers the fundamental economic strengths related to maturity, economic capabilities, geopolitical or proximity economic factors and future leadership/opportunity factors – investors are suddenly viewing these currencies and stock markets as “uniquely positioned for potential upside growth”.  Thus, this change in perspective could drive a new upside price trend throughout a number of undervalued currencies as well as present a very real possibility that skilled technical traders may find real value and real opportunity by expanding their search criteria into assets related to these currencies.

One of the most basic elements of investing is understanding how supply-demand economic functions work and where the current “equilibrium” is at.  The easiest way for us to try to explain this concept is to think of a very sought-after product (let us assume one ounce of gold) and the price of that gold as a measure of the price level in relation to demand.  When the price of gold is very low, buyers rush into the market to buy up as much as they can afford because the perception is that gold prices should be higher (thus gold is undervalued).  This means the equilibrium level is higher than the current price level of gold.  When the price of gold is very high, buyers stay away from purchasing (or can’t purchase because it is too high) and the price will eventually begin to fall lower because demand is very low.  This means the equilibrium level is lower than the current high price of gold.

Price always moves from above or below the equilibrium level to price levels on the opposite side of the equilibrium level.  Think of the equilibrium level as the optimal price level where demand meets supply and where future expectations of price are minimized.  This equilibrium level is where the price would be if we removed all the hype, fear, greed and speculation out of the market.  The equilibrium level fluctuates as true fundamentals and true price exploration takes place across the supply-demand curve.  Almost like the average temperature fluctuates throughout the seasons of the year.

When a shift in investor sentiment happens, much like a shift in seasons, price changes direction begins to rally of decline and this shift in trend changes the supply-demand equilibrium level as investors pile into or pull out of a market.  Thus, if our researchers are correct and this change in the longer-term opportunity for selected currencies is a true longer-term capital shift, it may be a very early opportunity for investors to begin focusing on the opportunities that will become present in the near future.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

The first currency we want to focus on is the Australian Dollar.  Historically, the Australian Dollar has continued to trend lower over the past 18+ months and currently shows very little strength or opportunity to form a bottom.  The lows near 0.67 may prove to become a future bottom in price, but the trend has not confirmed this yet and because of that, we believe weakness is still prevalent in price.

CANADIAN DOLLAR

The Canadian Dollar, on the other hand, has set up an intermediate price bottom in early 2019 and has continued to strengthen moderately over the past 10+ months.  One thing that we want to point out about our research is that we believe currencies and nations that have strong economic ties and proximity advantages (being close to the US and having strong economic ties with the US) are very likely to perform well or begin to strengthen in the near future.  Canada has a number of factors that may prove to be advantageous going forward.  Strong economic ties with the US, a booming cannabis and resource market, strong agriculture exports and a very mature economy compared to other nations.

EURO

The Euro price chart continues to illustrate price weakness as future expectations of economic strength is very far off.  The interesting facet related to the Euro is that a weakening Euro will eventually present a very clear opportunity for investors the instant the European-union enters any type of economic recovery or strength.  Until that happens, we believe the continued price weakness will potentially drive the Euro lower – eventually attempting true parity with the US Dollar.

BRITISH POUND

The British Pound has recently rebounded to the upside with some level of ferocity.  Of course, this 6+ week upside price rally does not make a new longer-term price trend yet – but we believe this upside price move may be related to the future BREXIT deal and renewed economic ties/trade with the US.  In other words, investors may be shifting expectations and price levels into acceptance that the British Pound may become a very solid future investment assuming the BREXIT deal creates a renewed economic cooperation between Great Britain and the US.

MEXICAN PESO

Lastly, the Mexican Peso has recently started to base near 0.049 and may possibly attempt to move above longer-term resistance near 0.053 on renewed expectations of a stronger economy, stronger economic ties with the US and a post-US 2020 Presidential election rally.  Currently, the bottom in the Peso occurred in 2017 near 0.04785.  We believe the Peso could rally above 0.061 over the next 18+ months – resulting in an 18%+ upside price rally related to stronger US economic growth and stronger economic ties between the US and Mexico.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

These changed in direction in the Mexican Peso, Canadian Dollar and British Pound suggest that global investors may begin shifting capital into the strongest sectors and/or the value sectors of these countries attempting to capture a late 2020 price rally that may carry forward into the 2021 and beyond economic recovery that we expect to take place after the 2020 US Presidential elections.

Please keep in mind that quite a bit hinges of the outcome of the US Presidential elections in 2020.  Just like we saw on election night in November 2016, global investors and global corporate leaders will react to any fear or opportunity related to who is expected to win the US elections in 2020.  More taxes, more regulation, more uncertainty will immediately derail any attempted economic recovery that sets up over the next 10+ months.  We need to watch how these currencies strengthen before the election, then become very cautious 2 to 3 weeks before the election takes place in 2020.

I urge you visit my ETF Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Bar!

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.  Visit our web site (www.thetechnicaltraders.com) to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

Negative Yields Tell A Story Of Shifting Economic Leadership

Negative yields are becoming common for many of the world’s most mature economies.  The process of extending negative yields within these economies suggests that safety is more important than returns and that central banks realize that growth and increases in GDP are more important than positive returns on capital.  In the current economic environment, this suggests that global capital investors are seeking out alternative solutions to adequately develop longer-term opportunities and to develop native growth prospects that don’t currently exist. Our research team has been researching this phenomenon and how it relates to the continued “capital shift” that is taking place throughout the globe.  We believe we have some answers for anyone interested in our opinions.  We also believe the longer-term answers will depend on what happens over the next 5 to 7 years throughout the globe and how economic expectations shift as well as how global debt is dealt with. We urge all of our followers to read all of the segments of this research post about how the global central banks are pushing the envelope and have been for many years : Aug 14, 2019: GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS MOVE TO KEEP THE PARTY ROLLING
Throughout our research, we referenced a number of current articles to determine our own outcomes and expectations.  Some of the articles we used as reference are listed below. Sources for some of our research: Each of these resources helped to create a bigger picture of what we believe will likely happen and how the process may unfold.  We’ll start by attempting to understand the core elements of the negative yield perspective and how/when it may change. Negative yields are a result of expected economic malaise rooted in the understanding that GDP growth and economic output are relatively flat and not expected to rise.  It comes down to the fact that if investors identified true growth opportunities in the major global economies, the yields for the debt instruments would reflect investor optimism (resulting in higher yields).  Thus, the core element of the current global economic malaise is that the planet is transitioning from a very fragile 19th-century economic model into something new – we call it the 21st-century economic model. This process will likely take an additional 10+ years to really begin to complete and may require many false starts as the world begins to understand exactly what is required to make this transition.  Debt, as a process of engaging in economic activity, is something that is essential for some level of inflation, income, and the creation of future growth.  Debt becomes a major issue when growth declines over extended periods of time resulting in a default risk for some nations/countries.  Yet, as the human population continues to expand and global central banks continue to attempt to find the spark that will launch the new economic growth model, debt is essential to avoid economic contraction. As we’ve hinted to, above, we believe the true answer is the transition away from 19th century economic structures that have resulted in massive risk factors (like unfunded pensions, unfunded state, and federal liabilities and massive global bank, investment banking and industrial level economic “black holes”) and to move towards true new world economic model.  What that looks like is something we are considering at the moment and have a few ideas of. Currently, there are a few new industries that show promise across the globe in terms of the new 21st-century economy and fledgling new industries. _  Cannabis industry _  Human Care Services Industry _  Alternate housing Solutions _  Eco-Sustainability Solutions _  Fintech Wealth Creation Solutions _  Social/Infrastructure Restoration Solutions We believe the next 10+ years will become very fluid as traditional economic models are replaced with newer, more alternative, types of economic solutions that spark real growth industries and opportunities.  We hope this process of transition initiates fairly quickly before any extended failure process takes place to start the reduction of capacity and resources that will be required for the rebuilding of the new 21st-century economy.  Time will tell. What this means for the rest of us is that we need to stay very focused on the fact that transitional asset shifts are very likely over the next 10+ years.  The only time in history that we believe was similar to the current global economic environment was shortly after WWII.  Global debts had skyrocketed and economic expectations throughout the planet were mild at best.  Germany and most of Europe was beginning a rebuilding process while most of SE Asia and Japan were also attempting to rebuild and restructure after a brutal series of global wars.  Much of the outside world was still in some form of an undeveloped economic structure at that time.  For most of the developed world, the process of rebuilding and identifying real economic growth came nearly 20 years after the end of WWII – near the late 1950s and early 1960s as a type of Renaissance Era. Given today’s world and how quickly things progress, we believe the process may take about 7 to 14 years to complete this time – depending on how quickly we are able to transition the global away from risks and systematic failures that are a result of clinging to failed 19th-century components. It is our opinion that wild price rotations in a variety of global assets will plague the global markets over the next 7+ years as pools of capital are moved into and out of opportunities for returns and gains.  We believe all of the world’s global markets are at risk for these very volatile rotations in price levels and that individual segments of the global markets will become targets for price declines and advances as capital attempts to force a “price discovery” process that seeks to identify true price values. The process of true price discovery is convoluted with the steps of shaking off old expectations, risks, liabilities, falsehoods, and processes while attempting to identify real future value and executing the steps to transition these resources into renewed future expectations.  It is almost like tearing down a structure in order to build something better and more efficient from the usable pieces of the old structure. Our opinion is that skilled technical traders need to stay very fluid right now and to understand that broader risk factors are at play throughout the globe.  Every major and minor economy on the planet will likely feel some aspect of the transition that is taking place within the global economy.  We’ve highlighted a few charts, below, to show variations of risk as related to the trends that have taken place over the past 8+ years.  Two of these charts shows a Pitchfork type of price channel.  Once price breaks below these price channels, we enter a new territory of downward price trends that will begin the price discovery process. This chart of the German DAX suggests the lower price trend channel is currently near $9300.  As time progresses, that channel continues to rise.  We would expect the $10,000 level to be a critical psychological level going forward.
This chart of the FSTE 100 shows a similar pattern where the lower price channel is near $5450 currently.  As we progress further in time, that level continues to rise.  We would suggest the $6000 will become critical for price support in the FTSE going forward.

The SPY sets up a similar pattern but shows more of our cycle and other research elements.  The lower BLUE price channel, near $240, is our current price channel providing longer-term support.  Below that level, we would fall back to the 2016 lows near $209.40.

Pay attention to what happens in the global markets over the next 6 to 18 months.  The US Presidential election, Brexit and a host of other global issues are still playing out.  We believe we are just starting this transition process and we believe now is the time for all skilled technical traders to fully understand that risks, price rotation, and true price discovery are very likely outcomes that may drive very wild price moves for many years into the future. We urge all of our followers to read all of the segments of this research post about how the global central banks are pushing the envelope and have been for many years : Aug 14, 2019: GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS MOVE TO KEEP THE PARTY ROLLING

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In closing, sit back and think about all the opportunities that will be created over the next 7+ years if you are skilled enough to trade these massive price swings.  Think about how the world will transition away from risk factors that continue to plague our future and towards something that will usher in a 50+ year run of opportunity and gains.  If you are young enough to enjoy this run, now is the time you will want to find a solid team of people that can help you navigate this process and find success. We are only halfway into August and we have already closed out 24.16% in gains from the falling SP500 using SDS, and the pop in gold using UGLD, and from the oversold bounce and rally in silver miners SIL. We urge all of our followers to pay attention to our research, consider your options very closely and prepare for this next move by pulling some of your active portfolio away from risks and into more protective measures.  This Crazy Ivan event is just 10 days away and we really want to urge all of our followers to not under-estimate this event cycle.

WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here. I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here. On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis. More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

BECOME A TECHNICAL TRADER AND PROFIT CLICK HERE

Chris Vermeulen

Index Prediction System Is Telling Us A Very Different Story

On this day, celebrating fathers and all they do for families and their children, we thought we would share some really interesting research regarding the next six months trading expectations in the NASDAQ and what it means for your trading account.  One element of our research involves data mining and searching for historical price correlation models.  These types of elements help us identify when the price is acting normally or abnormally. We like to focus on the NQ (NASDAQ) because its tech-heavy and is where a lot of the Capital Shift (money from other countries is flowing into as a safe/best asset class at this time). Below, We are going to Geek-Out a little and sharing raw data values from one of our data mining utilities highlighting each month’s historical activity in the NQ. Pay close attention to the “Total Monthly Sum” and the monthly NEG (negative) and POS (positive) values.  These values show the range of price activity over the past 20 years normalized for each month. Obviously, we can’t expect the markets to adhere to these normalized values, but we can gain insight from the data retrieved by this data mining tool.
To help you understand this data we’ll focus some brief analysis on the month of June, below. June has a total monthly NEG value of -1009 and a total monthly POS value of 1410.  Additionally, the NEG value is comprised of 9 months of data and the POS value is composed of 11 months of data.  Therefore, the relationship between NEG and POS months is roughly 1:1 – or about equal. Overall, the positive months outweigh the negative months by 401 points. The largest monthly positive and negative values are 492 and -189. This suggests the positive price aspect of these mined data points is about 2.3:1 respectively. The conclusion we derive from this date is that June is moderately more positive based on historical price data then negative.  This data is derived from the NQ. Therefore the expectations of a positive 300 to 400 point move in the NQ for June would be in line with historical expectations.  Anything beyond that range should be considered a price anomaly. These types of price anomalies to happen fairly often but are difficult to predict. As of today, the NQ has already moved upward by over 400 points since the end of May. This price advance equaling our expected data range would suggest that the upward price move in the NQ may be very close to ending. =====[ June Monthly Analysis ]======================== – Largest Monthly POS : 492 NEG -189.25 – Total Monthly NEG : -1009 across 9 bars – Avg = -112.11 – Total Monthly POS : 1410 across 11 bars – Avg = 128.18 ——————————————– – Total Monthly Sum : 401 across 20 bars Analysis for the month = 6 =================================================== As you scan through the rest of these data mining results, pay very close attention to the largest monthly ranges as well as the overall price bias described by the total monthly NEG and POS values.  For example, in July the monthly values are more narrow in range. Yet the total monthly NEG and POS values depict a broader range for price. Additionally, the POS bars (13) compared to the NEG bars (6) describes a vastly different historical price relevance.  The possibility of an upside price bias in July is much stronger than what we determined four June.  The 13:6 ratio of upside to downside price bars in July converts into a nearly 2:1 upside price expectation versus a 1:1 ratio in June.  Because of this, we can determine that July will likely result in a positive upside price move of at least 150 to 250 points in the NQ before exhausting. =====[ July Monthly Analysis ]======================== – Largest Monthly POS : 319.75 NEG -200 – Total Monthly NEG : -656 across 6 bars – Avg = -109.33 – Total Monthly POS : 1654 across 13 bars – Avg = 127.23 ——————————————– – Total Monthly Sum : 998 across 19 bars Analysis for the month = 7 =================================================== Our data mining tool suggests that August may be much more volatile than July. The larger monthly total sum suggests a possible breakout move to the upside. The increases in total monthly values suggest volatility will also increase. Overall the combined July and August data points suggest rotation may end with a big move to the upside sometime in late August before a correction. =====[ August Monthly Analysis ]======================== – Largest Monthly POS : 477 NEG -313.25 – Total Monthly NEG : -835.5 across 8 bars – Avg = -104.44 – Total Monthly POS : 1702.5 across 12 bars – Avg = 141.88 ——————————————– – Total Monthly Sum : 867 across 20 bars Analysis for the month = 8 =================================================== September data points show an immediate reversal to the upside price bias. The data reporting from our data mining tool flips to the negative side fairly strong. Overall expectations are roughly 1:1 that a downside price move will dominate for September. Our data mining utility suggests a downside price move of between -450 and -550 points.  If you’ve been following our research, you already know that we are predicting a moderately large downside reversal beginning in late August or September. It is our belief that the US stock markets will rotate downwards after a peak in price in August. We believe this downside move could last well into November, much like the downside move in 2018. =====[ September Monthly Analysis ]======================== – Largest Monthly POS : 229 NEG -473 – Total Monthly NEG : -1460.25 across 10 bars – Avg = -146.03 – Total Monthly POS : 903.5 across 10 bars – Avg = 90.35 ——————————————– – Total Monthly Sum : -556.75 across 20 bars Analysis for the month = 9 =================================================== Should our expectations play out in the market, the downside price move in September, October and possibly November, would result in a unique price anomaly setup near this price bottom. As you can see from the data mining results, below, the last quarter (3 months) of the year typically results in upside price bias. Therefore, any deep downside price move after our expected peak in August will set up a very unique price anomaly pattern where skilled traders should be able to capture an incredible upside price run near the end of 2019. =====[ October Monthly Analysis ]======================== – Largest Monthly POS : 480.25 NEG -679.75 – Total Monthly NEG : -1564.5 across 7 bars – Avg = -223.50 – Total Monthly POS : 2320.25 across 13 bars – Avg = 178.48 ——————————————– – Total Monthly Sum : 755.75 across 20 bars Analysis for the month = 10 =================================================== =====[ November Monthly Analysis ]======================== – Largest Monthly POS : 316.5 NEG -768 – Total Monthly NEG : -1169 across 6 bars – Avg = -194.83 – Total Monthly POS : 1509 across 14 bars – Avg = 107.79 ——————————————– – Total Monthly Sum : 340 across 20 bars Analysis for the month = 11 =================================================== Pay very close attention to the fact that December can be fairly mixed in terms of overall price bias and upside or downside price expectation.  With a 1:1 (equal price weighting) for both positive and negative price results and a monthly sum of only about 100 points, we would expect December to be moderately congested and flat. =====[ December Monthly Analysis ]======================== – Largest Monthly POS : 782 NEG -616.25 – Total Monthly NEG : -1179.5 across 10 bars – Avg = -117.95 – Total Monthly POS : 1291.5 across 10 bars – Avg = 129.15 ——————————————– – Total Monthly Sum : 112 across 20 bars Analysis for the month = 12 =================================================== And there you have it, our Father’s Day gift to all of you. These results from our proprietary data mining utility are providing you with a detailed map of what to expect in the NQ going forward through December 2019. This is only one aspect of our research team’s resources and unique capabilities that assist us in understanding what price will be doing in the future. There are many other utilities and trading indicator tools that we use to help confirm and validate our analysis. We’ve included a chart of the S&P E-mini futures contract with a yellow line drawn across our predicted price modeling expectations starting from the end of 2017 until now. Pay very close attention to our expected price levels and the market price levels as time progressed forward. As you become more skilled in understanding how this data can be used to benefit your trading and deliver results, you’ll learn why our research team relies on our proprietary modeling tools and software so heavily.
We thought we might share a bit of specialized data with you on this Father’s Day so that you could use some of our proprietary information in your own research and analysis going forward. Please remember, price action dictates everything. Even though we can model and data mine incredible information months or years into the future, everything comes down to what price is doing right now. If it confirms our analysis, then fantastic – our research may be right on the money.  If the price moves beyond our expectations and research, then we have to reevaluate our expectations in correlation with the data that we have to determine if we need to adjust our expectations going forward. My point is, yes we can forecast, yes we have been correctly more times than not, but you cannot just go out and place trades based on this analysis alone because our analysis will change with the market. To be blatantly honest, we don’t really care what the market does or when. We FOLLOW the market and trade on its coat tales, we don’t jump in front of it and guess/hope it will reverse as we are predicting. Some of our articles/forecasts we share simply don’t happen and we get lots of flack from free followers of these articles. But what most followers fail to understand is that even when our predictions are DEAD WRONG, we and our subscribers make money in most cases. Again, we don’t trade the forecasts we just let them help guide us, and we trade with the dominant trend. We have a good pulse on the major markets and can profit during times when most others can’t which is why you should join my Wealth Trading Newsletter for index, metals, and energy trade alerts. I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these super cycles are going to last years. These super cycles starting to take place will go into 2020 and beyond which we lay out in our new PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime I am going to give away and ship out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans listed below, and you will receive:
1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE (Could be worth hundreds of dollars) 2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE (Could be worth a lot in the future) SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS! Free Shipping! Happy Fathers Day Guys! Chris Vermeulen Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.