Posts

Crude Oil Collapses Overnight On Supply Glut And Fractal Analysis Say $7 is Support

Crude Oil continues to be a big mover as the supply glut has really pushed global capacity to its limits. Dozens of full tanker ships are anchored off the California and Singapore coastlines waiting for demand to pick up.  As long as the Virus shutdown persists globally, the supply gut will continue to wreak havoc on oil price levels into Summer.  As of early Monday morning, Crude Oil is lower by -17% to $14.10 as I type.

What most readers of our articles here don’t fully grasp is just how accurate our long-term predictions truly are and its why we link to past research posts that clearly prove our analysis can be deadly accurate.

You may remember our incredible research post from July 2019 which suggested Crude Oil would collapse in early 2020 calling out a potential $14 price target.

You may also like to review our warning from January 2019 related to Oil and Energy. We also predicted the gold bullion breakout and bull market to happen last year in April, May, or June, which is it, and we called that six months prior. Eric Sprott talked about our gold prediction and how much he liked out analysis on his podcast back then.

Our Adaptive Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting a support zone near $9 to $18 may become a new sideways trading zone for Crude Oil.  We believe the downside risk to price levels is still excessive, but we also believe that true price valuation levels will keep Oil above $4 ppb as global demand will eventually recover.  Thus, we believe Oil will likely settle into a sideways price range between $9 and $18 as this virus event continues.  It may attempt brief moves outside these ranges but eventually, settle back into this range until true demand begins to accelerate higher.

Before we continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

DAILY CRUDE OIL CHART
ADAPTIVE FIBONACCI PRICE MODELING

This Daily Crude Oil Chart highlights our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system’s results and clearly shows the Support Zone.  We believe this Zone will become a new sideways price channel for Crude oil.

WEEKLY CRUDE OIL PRICE CHART – SUPPORT ZONE

This Weekly Crude Oil Price chart also highlights the Support Zone.  The potential for Crude prices to retest the $7 to $8 price range based on this massive supply glut is not out of the question.  We believe Crude Oil will settle into the Support Zone while attempting to establish a price bottom near $7 or $8 over the next 90+ days.  It may become an extended sideways bottom/flag formation as the bottom forms.

Our suggestion is to expect a more sideways bottom formation in Crude Oil over the next 60 to 90+ days.  The supply-side glut is really pushing price levels down to extreme levels.  Nothing will change that aspect of the market dynamic until we exit this Virus shut-down and demand starts to skyrocket higher.  That may come in August or later in the year.

We do believe Oil will attempt to find support above $7 to $8 ppb as we believe the supply glut will push oil prices to a “core value level” where global buyers will attempt to say “we can’t sell oil at anything less than $x.xx”.  We believe that level is $7 to $8 ppb overall.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is an incredible year for traders and investors.  Don’t miss all the incredible trends and trade setups.

We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Subscribers of my ETF trading newsletter had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over in February, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way with TLT bonds for a 20% gain. This week we closed out SPY ETF trade taking advantage of this bounce and entered a new trade with our account is at another all-time high value.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others watch most of their retirement funds drop 35-65% during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

ADL Predicts Oil Prices Will Fall Below $40

There are times when our research team interprets our advanced predictive modeling systems so well that we call a move in the markets 3 to 10+ months in advance of the move actually happening.  It has happened for our team of research so often lately that we are somewhat used to the accolades we receive from our followers and members.  Our October 2018 Gold price predictions are still playing out  accurately and continue to amaze people – even though we made these predictions over 12 months ago.

Today, we wanted to highlight our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling systems expectations for Crude Oil, but before we get into the details be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter. The research post we made on July 10, 2019 (see below).  At that time, we warned that Crude Oil was about to head much lower and that our ADL modeling system was suggesting that Oil prices would rotate between $47 and $64 before breaking much lower in November 2019.  Ultimately, Oil prices will fall below $40 ppb following our timeline and could begin a broader downside move before the end of October 2019.  Read our full prediction/research report from the link below.

SOURCE: July 10, 2019: PREDICTIVE MODELING SUGGEST OIL HEADED MUCH LOWER

We believe the support level near $50.50 will act as a temporary support level over the next 3 to 10+ days before a moderate price breakdown below this level begins.  Our expectations for November 2019 are that oil prices may fall to levels below $45 ppb on a deeper downward price move, yet will recover to levels near $47 near December 2019/January 2020.

We do believe the ultimate target for Crude Oil prices are to levels below $40 ppb and that price may attempt to make a move towards these level as early as January 2020.  Our ADL predictive modeling system has shown us the path for oil prices and, so far, the real price has mirrored this expectation almost perfectly – even the high price in September aligned with our expected high price near $60.

Weakness should dominate in late October and early November – carrying all the way through most of November.  Pay attention to the ADL chart above and our July 10th predictions.  Oil will target levels below $40 by late December 2019 or early January 2020.

All it is going to take is for this $50.50 support level to be tested and breached for the next price move to begin.  Be prepared for the volatility that may hit oil prices near this critical support level and be prepared for the next move to levels near $44~47.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Be sure to ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar and SPECIAL OFFER – CLICK HERE

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. This quick and simple to understand guide on trading with technical analysis will allow you to follow the markets closely and trade with it. Never be caught on the wrong side of the market again and suffer big losses. PDF guide: Technical Trading Mastery

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

IS THE OTHER SHOE ABOUT TO DROP WITH FED NEWS?

We’ve been watching the markets today and over the past few days after the Saudi Arabia attack and are surprised with the real lack of volatility in the US major markets – excluding the incredible move higher, then lower in Oil.  The real news appears to be something completely different than Oil right now.  Might it be the Fed Meeting?

You might remember our August 19th prediction, based on Super-Cycle research and patterns, that a breakdown in the global markets was about to take place?  This failed to validate because of external factors (positive news related to the US China Trade talk and other factors).  This didn’t completely invalidate the super-cycle pattern – it may have just delayed it a bit.

That super-cycle pattern initiated in 2013-2015 and concludes in 2019/2020.  This is one of the reasons why we believed the August 19 date was so important.  It aligned with our price cycle analysis and our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs.  We believed this was the date that we would learn the future of the markets and possibly start a bigger price breakdown.

It now appears that the foreign and US credit markets are starting to “freak out” and we may find out that the US Federal Reserve is rushing in to rescue the global markets (again) from their own creation.  The Repo Markets appear to be setting up a massive crisis event as rates skyrocket overnight.  See the article below from ZeroHedge.

Source : Zerohedge.com : “Nobody Knows What’s Going On”: Repo Market Freezes As Overnight Rate Hits All Time High Of 10%

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nobody-knows-whats-going-repo-market-freezes-overnight-rate-hits-all-time-high-10

Many analysts have discussed the US Dollar shortage in foreign markets that relates to global credit functions, sustainable trade functions and much more.  If the US Dollar shortage is reaching a critical point where foreign markets are unable to function properly and where Repo Rates are reflecting this crisis, we may be on the verge of a much bigger credit crisis event that we have imagined.

In our opinion, the scope and scale of this event depends on the September 17/18 US Fed meeting outcome and the tone of their message afterward.  If the Fed softens and injects capital into the global markets, we may see a bit of a reprieve – even though we may still see concerns weighing on the global markets.  If the Fed allows the card to fall where the may, so to say, we may see a bigger crisis event unfolding over the next 2 to 4 weeks – possibly much longer.

We believe this event is related to the Capital Shift that we have been discussing with you for more than 2+ years.  Capital always seeks out the safest and most secure returns in times of crisis.  Capital will also seek out opportunity at times – only when opportunity is relatively safe compared to risk.  This may be a time when opportunity is limited and the potential for risks/crisis are very elevated.  At those times, capital rushes away from risk and into safety in Cash, Metals and the safest instruments in the global markets – we believe that would likely be the US, Canadian, Japanese, British and Swiss markets/banking systems.

DOW (YM) DAILY CHART

This YM Daily chart highlights recent price ranges and shows us what a 1.5x and 2.5x volatility explosion could look like (see the Yellow and Blue highlighted ranges on the right end of the chart).  We believe the event that is setting up, with the US Fed meeting/announcements pending, could prompt a large volatility event over the next few days/weeks/months that may target these expanded volatility ranges.

MIDCAP INDEX DAILY CHART

This MC, MidCap, Daily chart highlights the same range expansions (1.5x and 2.5x) related to the recent price ranges in the MidCap Index.  Traders must take a moment to understand how an extremely volatile pricing event within these ranges could create dramatic profit or loss risks.  Imagine what would happen is the MC was suddenly targeting 1775 or 1620 on some type of crisis event – a 20% to 30% price decline.

DAILY TRANSPORTATION INDEX CHART

This Daily TRAN, Transportation Index, chart provides a similar picture of the type of volatility event that we believe could be setting up currently.  From current levels, the Transportation Index could rotate within a  +/- 15~25% price range if a new credit crisis event were to roil the markets.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

What can you do about it and how can you protect your investments from this event?  Learn to protect your assets by taking advantage of current high prices, pulling some profits, protect long trades, scale back your active trading and learn to size your trades appropriately.  If you have not already done so, strongly consider a position in precious metals (Gold or Silver) and move a larger portion of your portfolio into CASH.

The risks of another global credit crisis event appear to be starting to show very clear signs right now.  This event will likely be focused on foreign markets – not necessarily focused on the US markets.  We’ve been warning our followers about this type of event for many months now and we are alerting you to the fact that the Repo Markets appear to be screaming a very clear warning that foreign credit many be entering a crisis mode.

I urge you visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar!

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

VIX To Begin A New Uptrend and What it Means

The news of the drone attack on Saudi Arabia over the weekend prompted a big upside move in Oil (over 10%) and a moderate downside rotation in the US major indexes/stock market.  Although prices had recovered slightly by the opening bell on Monday, September 16, the shock wave resulting from this disruption in oil supply is just now starting to play out.

The long term uncertainty in the markets, as well as the rotation in the US Dollar and other foreign currencies, could play a bigger role in the type of volatility and extent of the immediate price rotation that may result from this external news event.  Our VIX predictions and ADL predictive modeling system are suggesting volatility will become front and center over the next 60+ day before settling into a more narrow price range.

As we see it, this disruption in oil is an external factor related to the markets.  Yes, it will disrupt about 5% of the global oil supply.  Yes, some type of retaliation could take place over the next 30 to 60 days.  Yes, the global markets will continue to rotate until they have priced in the additional risk related to this current event and potential future events.  That means investors must understand the value and opportunity of proper position sizing and risk management.  The next few weeks may be full of surprises.

VIX INDEX FIBONACCI UPSIDE TARGETS CHART

Our VIX chart highlights what we expect in terms of the potential upside price volatility in the US stock market.  You can see we expected the VIX price to decline after the peak in early August 2019, then bottom near August 20~21 and attempt a move higher (related to our August 19 breakdown expectations).  This breakdown never happened as news events pushed the general markets higher – abating the spike in the VIX we were expecting.  Our further expectations were that VIX would cycle lower near the end of August 2019 and into very early September 2019 before setting up a bottom near 24 and extending higher.  Obviously, our expected levels were off by quite a bit, but the rotation in the VIX continues to align with our rotational cycles.

Therefore, we believe the potential for an upside price move in the VIX is still very valid, especially given the events of last weekend and the continued trade talks, market fragility and potential for major news events.  We believe the VIX may be starting an upward price cycle that could push it well past 21~24 should the US stock markets rotate lower or contract.

 

SP500 INDEX WEEKLY ADAPTIVE DYNAMIC LEARNING (ADL) CHART

Our ES Weekly Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) chart highlights why we believe an extended volatility range exists over the next 60+ days and why we believe a rotation of 8 to 12% is a real possibility in the US stock market/major indexes.  Our ADL predictive modeling system is very useful because it highlights where price may attempt to target out into the future based on a proprietary price mapping/data mining solution.  The purpose of this tool is to map historical price activity by unique price pattern, technical data and categories, learn from the past and attempt to use this data to predict the future.  We’ve found it to be extremely valuable in our research.

This ES Weekly ADL chart suggests an 8 to 12% price range is set up in the US stock markets over the next 60+ days.  This suggests that and price weakness or external news event could send the US stock market much lower before finding any real support.  Any absence of this breakdown event or crisis-type news event would suggest that prices will attempt to drift moderately higher over the next 60+ days.

In other words, there is a very real potential for a potentially big downside price rotation currently set up in the markets.  That potential vanishes in early November 2019 as the ADL predictive modeling system suggests a more narrow target range for the price with an upside price bias driving markets to potentially new all-time highs.

 

CONCLUDING THOUGHT:

Get ready for some really great trading opportunities over the next 4+ months.  Any downside price rotation will present a very clear buying opportunity for skilled technical traders and members of our ETF Wealth Building Newsletter as we lead into the November/December market rally (Christmas Rally).  This means we must continue to be cautious of extended volatility and play these price rotations with a strong focus on managing risk before the November/December rally sets up to close out 2019.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

So, if you believe in technical analysis, then this is the newsletter and market condition for you to really shine.

Be prepared for these price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH SUBSCRIPTION!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

WHAT ARE THE REAL UPSIDE TARGETS FOR OIL POST DRONE ATTACK?

After the news of the drone attack on the Saudi Arabia oil refinery, traders knew this week would be full of bigger price moves, reversals and some real opportunity for profits.  We were also well aware of the risks of engaging in these market moves prior to fully understanding the dynamics of this event.  We heard from many of our friends in the industry about open positions that were not properly scaled to deal with risk – and we know some of our friends took a hit early today.

The real questions before skilled technical traders are:

What will happen with Oil and where will price find the first level of resistance?

What will happen to the US and foreign major markets related to this supply disruption?

How will future economic expectations react to this disruption?

How can I profit from these moves? First,  opt-in to our Free Trade Ideas Newsletter Here!

 

We can answer the first question fairly easily – where is the first level of resistance?  The shorter-term resistance resides at $64.41 ($64.50 to $66).  The longer-term resistance resides at $71.35 ($71.50 to $72.50).  This means the price of oil should run into some moderate resistance near $65.  If it breaks past that level, then the next level of resistance is near $72.

The second question is a bit more complicated to answer.  We believe the US markets will continue to benefit from the capital shift that has continued to take place over the past 4+ years and from deep US oil supply capabilities and reserve capabilities.  Foreign markets, particularly those that are dependent on oil imports, may experience a new impulse of economic weakness as oil costs rise.  Exporting countries will see new revenues to support ailing policies.  The answer is, the more mature economies will survive without much trouble – weaker, less mature, economies could experience some real pain from this move in Oil.

The third question is open to interpretation as foreign currencies continue to shift.  Initially, any country that is dependent on oil imports will experience some real future expectation economic pain.  Countries that are in a more stable position regarding Oil demands could still experience some pain as currencies shift valuations.  Overall, the length of this disruption and the possibility of any further supply disruption is really where these future expectations come unglued.  The opportunity for further disruptions or future changes in market dynamics is very real.  This is a very “fluid” process at the moment.

Profiting from these moves is really quite simple – patience, wait for the right setups, confine risks and make sure you already have your hard cash reserves and protection positions in precious metals.  These swings in the markets are going to get better and bigger as this continues to play out.  Skilled technical traders will have no shortage of great trade opportunities throughout the next 15+ months.

DAILY CRUDE OIL PRICE CHART

This Daily Oil chart highlights our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system and the key upside price target (resistance) near $64.50.  Ultimately, this is the upper resistance level that is the first level of major resistance for this upside price move in Oil.  Rotation within these three Fibonacci target ranges has already started to happen.  This suggests price volatility is massive in oil and should continue in the near future.

 

DAILY XOI OIL STOCK INDEX CHART

This Daily XOI chart highlights the Daily Fibonacci price targets and clearly shows how quickly price has rallied after the weekend.  The XOI price is already above the three Fibonacci price targets, thus we must revert to previous price PEAKS as new resistance levels.  Currently, the 1300 level is a key resistance level which would closely align with our $64.50 level in Crude.

 

WEEKLY XOI OIL STOCK INDEX CHART

This XOI Weekly chart provides a longer-term picture of the upside targets in XOI.  The upper targets near 1425 and 1475 would translate into a $69 to $71 price target in Crude Oil.  Therefore, any breakout above $66~67 could easily rally up to $69 to $71 before reaching any key resistance levels.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

If the XOI is unable to clear the $1302 level, then this upside move in Crude Oil may actually be over as fast as it started.  Failure to climb above $1302 in XOI would result in a complete “new price high” failure and would suggest a top is forming.

We love it when the markets move like this.  Quite honestly, these are the best conditions for skilled technical traders to find extremely profitable trade setups.  The most difficult part of trading in this type of market is protecting against risk and position sizing.  If you are ready to learn where new trade setups are forming like in gold miners, and metals and want to execute trades effectively within this volatile rotation then check out my ETF trading newsletter.

I urge you visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar!

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com