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Gapping Rotation in SPY and News Based Rallies Are A Warning

As holiday trading sets up in the global markets, the SPY is starting to show signs of volatility and warning of a potential top by gapping as price attempts to trade sideways.  This type of top formation, along with the fact that the overnight REPO facility continues to roil the markets, continues to draw our researchers to the conclusion that some type of debt or liquidity issue is just below the surface of the global markets.

We believe the topping formation in the SPY may be a sign that the holiday trading, normally spanning from just before Thanksgiving to sometime after January 10th or 15th, may prompt a very volatile price rotation in the global markets.  The lack of liquidity in the market at this time often leads to fairly narrow ranges in price.  Yet we are seeing volatility continue to stay somewhat high at this time and the REPO issue hangs over the heads of nearly every investor at this time.

One of our friends, an ex-Chicago floor trader, wrote to us just a few days ago suggesting he was receiving phone calls from many friends and associates in the US and overseas about the REPO issue.  We believe this issue is now taking root as a concern for global investors and could become a major issue for the markets going forward into 2020.  Our friend’s suggestion was to “buy gold and to pair back equity positions”.

This SPY Daily chart highlights the GAPS in price that has our research team concerned. A breakdown below $308 would qualify as a new Bearish Price Trend.  If the most recent gap is filled to the downside, the price may begin to accelerate lower, confirming our analysis.

On the flip side of that scenario, is a breakout above $315 that can hold for a couple of days or into the end of the week. That would trigger a new uptrend and possibly a Santa Rally.

This Weekly YM chart highlights the Hangman pattern set up last week with a very long lower wick.  This pattern set up at the price high is very indicative of a topping formation.  The fact that it set up just below the GREEN Bullish Price Trigger level near $28,175 suggests this level is acting as resistance.  A breakdown in price near this level could prompt a move to levels below 26,000.

Traders need to stay cautious over the next 5+ weeks as the lack of volatility in the market may prompt some very big price moves.  We believe the REPO issue may have some legs in the future and we believe a rotation may begin before Christmas 2019.

If liquidity continues to diminish, a flash crash type of event would not be uncommon.  We believe there are serious risks of a downward price rotation in the works and urge our followers and members to prepare for unknown risks over the next 5+ weeks.

Normal trading volume will not likely start to pick back up till after January 15th.  We have at least 4+ weeks of unknowns to contend with in a very illiquid market. We are going to trade with the short term market trends and be agile going into the new year.

S&P 500 & BOND TREND – DECEMBER 13

The stock market was setting up a topping pattern the past couple weeks but that has now been negated. The charts/technicals are bullish and so are we it’s that simple really.

Yesterday more chatter of tariffs and other news sparked a strong equities rally at the open bell which sent stocks sharply higher while bonds corrected. With yesterday’s S&P 500 hitting new highs after a fear-based correction two weeks ago the market is now back in rally mode and should have enough energy to sustain a rally into the year-end.

While we trade based on technical analysis, there will be days when news hitting the market and causes some large moves on the same day we have technical buy or sell signals. Like yesterday, for example, The past couple of trading sessions we have been talking about how the S&P 500 has to hie new highs to kick things back into a new uptrend after the previous week’s price correction. Yesterday, the SP500 broke to new highs, while bonds broke down triggering a new breakout rally in stocks. Sure there was news to help push price higher but none the less all our analysis has confirmed for the buy trigger.

We touch on other markets or news from time to time but we do not take any of the news into consideration for our trades. While there are many warning signs out there pointing to dark times ahead for the financial markets like the Repo market and many others, the reality is we follow the price, not the news. The market is climbing a wall of worry among educated traders and investors, and that’s what the market does best and we can’t fight it. Eventually, the price will turn down for a mega bear market and we will be there to profit from it, until then we ride the fearful rally higher.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Currencies Show A Shift to Safety And Maturity – What Does It Mean?

Recent rotation in multiple foreign currencies hints at the fact that a new stage of the “Capital Shift” process is taking place and that skilled technical investors need to pay very close attention to how these currencies continue to react over the next 3 to 6+ months.  In the recent past, most of the world’s foreign currencies were declining in value while the US Dollar continued to strengthen.  In fact, we authored many research articles about these trends and how weakness in foreign currencies will drive new foreign investment into the US stock markets for two simple reasons; strength and security.

Now that a few of the world’s most mature economies, and some that may surprise you, are starting to change directions, we may be beginning a new stage of the “capital shift” process that may open up multiple new opportunities for skilled technical traders.  As the old saying goes, “follow the money”.  At this point, if our research team is correct about these price trend changes, following the money may mean opening our eyes to new investment opportunities across the Pacific and Atlantic – as well as very near to the US.

Before we continue, we suggest reading the following research post to understand a bit about the history of our research and be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.

September 10, 2019: METALS & THE US DOLLAR: HOW IT ALL RELATES – PART I

The first thing we want to highlight is our belief that the US Dollar and US stock market should continue to provide price strength and upward price opportunity – even throughout any price correction or contraction that our researchers may identify.  Our predictive modeling systems have shown us what we believe to be an incredibly accurate prediction of future price activity over the next 3 to 5+ years.

Even though we are not going to share that research with you today, the one thing we want all of our followers to understand is that the US stock market, and likely the US Dollar, are poised to continue to see longer-term upward price growth over the next 3+ years.  Yes, there may be a few price rotations/declines throughout this process and we need to be aware that price naturally attempts these types of rotations in an effort to provide future price support, price exploration and future price trends.  The price must always attempt to establish new highs or lows throughout a trending process.

US DOLLAR

The US Dollar has been trending higher since early 2018.  We believe the US Dollar will continue to push higher within the price channels we’ve drawn on this chart and, eventually, attempt to move to levels above 100 near the end of 2020 (or slightly after this date).  We don’t believe anything will disrupt the continued strength of the US Dollar unless some major economic/credit crisis completely destroys the support of the global economic markets and takes everything down with it.

Our researchers believe the new shift in the “capital shift” process of global investing is centered around the concept that certain global currencies, as well as their associated stock markets and strategic stock sectors, may have reached a point where price is exceedingly below fair value and when one considers the fundamental economic strengths related to maturity, economic capabilities, geopolitical or proximity economic factors and future leadership/opportunity factors – investors are suddenly viewing these currencies and stock markets as “uniquely positioned for potential upside growth”.  Thus, this change in perspective could drive a new upside price trend throughout a number of undervalued currencies as well as present a very real possibility that skilled technical traders may find real value and real opportunity by expanding their search criteria into assets related to these currencies.

One of the most basic elements of investing is understanding how supply-demand economic functions work and where the current “equilibrium” is at.  The easiest way for us to try to explain this concept is to think of a very sought-after product (let us assume one ounce of gold) and the price of that gold as a measure of the price level in relation to demand.  When the price of gold is very low, buyers rush into the market to buy up as much as they can afford because the perception is that gold prices should be higher (thus gold is undervalued).  This means the equilibrium level is higher than the current price level of gold.  When the price of gold is very high, buyers stay away from purchasing (or can’t purchase because it is too high) and the price will eventually begin to fall lower because demand is very low.  This means the equilibrium level is lower than the current high price of gold.

Price always moves from above or below the equilibrium level to price levels on the opposite side of the equilibrium level.  Think of the equilibrium level as the optimal price level where demand meets supply and where future expectations of price are minimized.  This equilibrium level is where the price would be if we removed all the hype, fear, greed and speculation out of the market.  The equilibrium level fluctuates as true fundamentals and true price exploration takes place across the supply-demand curve.  Almost like the average temperature fluctuates throughout the seasons of the year.

When a shift in investor sentiment happens, much like a shift in seasons, price changes direction begins to rally of decline and this shift in trend changes the supply-demand equilibrium level as investors pile into or pull out of a market.  Thus, if our researchers are correct and this change in the longer-term opportunity for selected currencies is a true longer-term capital shift, it may be a very early opportunity for investors to begin focusing on the opportunities that will become present in the near future.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

The first currency we want to focus on is the Australian Dollar.  Historically, the Australian Dollar has continued to trend lower over the past 18+ months and currently shows very little strength or opportunity to form a bottom.  The lows near 0.67 may prove to become a future bottom in price, but the trend has not confirmed this yet and because of that, we believe weakness is still prevalent in price.

CANADIAN DOLLAR

The Canadian Dollar, on the other hand, has set up an intermediate price bottom in early 2019 and has continued to strengthen moderately over the past 10+ months.  One thing that we want to point out about our research is that we believe currencies and nations that have strong economic ties and proximity advantages (being close to the US and having strong economic ties with the US) are very likely to perform well or begin to strengthen in the near future.  Canada has a number of factors that may prove to be advantageous going forward.  Strong economic ties with the US, a booming cannabis and resource market, strong agriculture exports and a very mature economy compared to other nations.

EURO

The Euro price chart continues to illustrate price weakness as future expectations of economic strength is very far off.  The interesting facet related to the Euro is that a weakening Euro will eventually present a very clear opportunity for investors the instant the European-union enters any type of economic recovery or strength.  Until that happens, we believe the continued price weakness will potentially drive the Euro lower – eventually attempting true parity with the US Dollar.

BRITISH POUND

The British Pound has recently rebounded to the upside with some level of ferocity.  Of course, this 6+ week upside price rally does not make a new longer-term price trend yet – but we believe this upside price move may be related to the future BREXIT deal and renewed economic ties/trade with the US.  In other words, investors may be shifting expectations and price levels into acceptance that the British Pound may become a very solid future investment assuming the BREXIT deal creates a renewed economic cooperation between Great Britain and the US.

MEXICAN PESO

Lastly, the Mexican Peso has recently started to base near 0.049 and may possibly attempt to move above longer-term resistance near 0.053 on renewed expectations of a stronger economy, stronger economic ties with the US and a post-US 2020 Presidential election rally.  Currently, the bottom in the Peso occurred in 2017 near 0.04785.  We believe the Peso could rally above 0.061 over the next 18+ months – resulting in an 18%+ upside price rally related to stronger US economic growth and stronger economic ties between the US and Mexico.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

These changed in direction in the Mexican Peso, Canadian Dollar and British Pound suggest that global investors may begin shifting capital into the strongest sectors and/or the value sectors of these countries attempting to capture a late 2020 price rally that may carry forward into the 2021 and beyond economic recovery that we expect to take place after the 2020 US Presidential elections.

Please keep in mind that quite a bit hinges of the outcome of the US Presidential elections in 2020.  Just like we saw on election night in November 2016, global investors and global corporate leaders will react to any fear or opportunity related to who is expected to win the US elections in 2020.  More taxes, more regulation, more uncertainty will immediately derail any attempted economic recovery that sets up over the next 10+ months.  We need to watch how these currencies strengthen before the election, then become very cautious 2 to 3 weeks before the election takes place in 2020.

I urge you visit my ETF Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Bar!

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.  Visit our web site (www.thetechnicaltraders.com) to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

Gold Gifts Traders With Another Rotation Below $1500

Positive expectations related to the US/China trades negotiations on October 10th prompted a moderately strong upside move in the US major indexes and the stock market.

Additionally, the precious metals fell in correlation to the upside move in the US stock market and presented another opportunity for skilled technical traders to look for entries below $1500 in Gold and below $17.75 in Silver.

We can’t stress the importance of this critical $1500 price level in Gold as a key level for all traders to watch.  It has continued to provide key support for Gold since the price rally that initiated in late April 2019.  We believe this level will act as a relatively strong price “floor” going forward and any price activity below $1500 could represent a very opportunistic entry area for skilled traders.

Back in early September, we authored this research post highlighting what we believed would happen going forward 30 to 60+ days for Gold.  At that time, the price of Gold has just rallied above $1500 for the first time in 2019.

We alerted our followers that we believed Gold would stall near the $1550 level, move briefly towards the $1475 to $1500 level, set up a new momentum base near the $1500 price level and begin a new rally soon after this base was complete.  You can read this research post here: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/global-market-chaos-means-precious-metals-will-continue-to-rise/ .

GOLD WEEKLY CHART FROM OUR SEPTEMBER 2ND RESEARCH POST

This is a Gold Weekly chart from that September 2 research post.  We still believe our research from that post is accurate and we believe this new move below $1500 is an incredible opportunity for skilled traders that understand the real potential of the future of precious metals.

120 MINUTE GOLD CHART SHOWING PRICE CORRECTION WARNING BEFORE IT HAPPENED

This 120 Minute Gold chart showing the early price decline on October 10, 2019 and highlighting the $1500 price support zone in RED illustrates how price has continued to find this level acting as strong support and how price has, in the past, moved through this level and back above it to form the new “momentum base/bottom” near October 1, 2019.

We believe any move below $1500 (or more precisely – $1495) is a very strong entry point.  Obviously, a price move to lower levels would be even better.  Currently, as long as price stays above the Momentum Base level (near $1463), then we consider the October 1 price rotation the true momentum base “low”.

CURRENT DAILY CHART OF GOLD – SUPPORT ZONE, AND FORECAST

This Daily chart highlights the same $1500 price support zone and clearly illustrates why we believe any price move below $1500 is a very strong opportunity for skilled traders.  The next leg in Gold should push prices above $1700 (possibly higher).  Longer-term, we believe the fear and uncertainty in the global markets will not subside until well after the 2020 US Presidential election cycle completes.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Therefore, we have at least 12 to 16+ months of continued fear driving investor uncertainty in precious metals and as the US political chaos heats up, so will precious metals.  At this point, we believe Gold has just started to “lift-off” in terms of the ultimate upside potential over the longer term.  We’ve discussed the potential of Gold reaching above $3750 and we believe this target level is very valid.

Yesterday I talked about how to trade and where gold, silver and miners were within their bul/bear market cycle which may surprise you. Listen to my thoughts in this Podcast here.

Play these moves accordingly.  This may be the last time you see Gold trading below $1500 for quite a while.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Be sure to ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.  Visit our web site to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

Downside Price Rotation Dominates After Manufacturing Data

Our research team has been all over this longer-term Pennant/Flag setup and the potential for the breakdown in the US/Global markets.  The US manufacturing data released today confirmed what we believed would be the outcome of the extended trade issues between the US and China – a moderate slowdown in US manufacturing.  Couple that with a US Fed that is attempting to navigate very difficult economic developments, consumers headed into the Christmas season unsure of what lies ahead, the US political environment (almost complete chaos) and uncertainties with foreign markets and we have a perfect setup for “investor malaise”.

This is something we last saw after 9/11 and even earlier in 1990 when the US invaded Kuwait.  With each of these events, consumers and investors entered a phase of moderate indifference/malaise in terms of attention put towards global economics and investing as well as a general unwillingness to actively engage in anything related to investing and finance related.  It appeared that consumers and investors were just busy taking care of their lives, families, jobs and watching the “news cycle” as it seemed every evening something new hit the news-cycles to distract from the markets.

If this is the case with the new Impeachment proceedings, the US Presidential election event (2020) and geopolitical trade/finance issues in today’s markets, then we may be entering a period where capital will continue to shift into safe-havens, protective stocks (DOW and dividend-paying stocks) and attempt to shun the high-flying, high-risk technology, Biotech and heavy-equipment and other stocks that rely on a booming global economy.  We have about 13 months to go before the November 2020 US Presidential elections and it appears we have a dramatically changing economic environment ahead of us.

If this downward price move continues as we expect, capital will move away from risk factors and into safe-havens, bonds, and blue-chip stocks as a method of protecting against valuation risks.  The NASDAQ and technology stocks could get crushed while the VIX index rockets higher. The smart money index and the price reversion look to be starting now and we explained it much more detail in this article.

S&P 500 (ES) DAILY CHART

This ES Daily chart highlights the new lower low produced by the downside price move on October 1.  This new low confirms the bearish trend is currently dominating the direction and suggests price may attempt to target the 2880 level (first level of support) before possibly moving lower.  Our researchers believe the ES is likely to fall 5% to 12% over this total downside rotation based on our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system. If this happens then see what we think will happen to the price of the VIX. Thus, retesting August 2019 lows is really going to be a key setup to determine what happens next.

DOW JONES DAILY CHART

This YM Daily chart provides an even more dramatic example of the new price low set up that continues to suggest further downside price action is in our future.  Support near 26000 would be our first target level and ultimate support near 25000 would be our ultimate support level based on recent price rotation.  Ideally, we believe the YM will move towards the 26000 level and find support rather quickly.  Much more quickly than the ES and NQ – as we’ve recently detailed in our ADL predictive modeling research article.

NASDAQ DAILY CHART

Because we believe the NASDAQ and the S&P stocks are more likely to experience a broader price rotation than the Dow Jones stocks, we believe that capital will begin a very dramatic and dedicate shift away from risk over the next 2 to 3+ weeks.  This would suggest that certain S&P and Dow stocks/sectors could see some support setting up within a 3~5 week span – well before the NASDAQ stocks find any real support.  It also suggests that Metals and Miners are likely to begin another rally higher over the next few weeks/months.

Ultimately, this will result in the VIX rallying much higher, as we suggested near 30+ days ago, and possibly targeting levels above 25 (initially), then possibly 35 as the capital shift extends.  Once capital begins to pour out of risk and into safe-havens, the VIX could rally above 40 on a deep price downturn in the NASDAQ.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

If this downside rotation extended into the global stock market, we may see a much broader rotation of capital throughout the world as risk factors are heightened and credit/debt issues are pushed to the limits for certain foreign nations/corporations.  This is likely to be a “shake-out” moment if the downside price move extends deeply.

Right now, we need to watch how the foreign markets will react to this new and how consumers and corporations address this manufacturing slowdown.  Obviously, everything is not as rosy as one might think given the global trade and economic issues.  But we believe this rotation is very healthy for the markets and if our ADL predictive modeling is correct, the ES and YM will recover near mid-November for a moderate Christmas rally for 2019.  The NASDAQ/technology/Biotech sectors, though, may not be so lucky.

Be sure to ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar!

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. This quick and simple to understand guide on trading with technical analysis will allow you to follow the markets closely and trade with it. Never be caught on the wrong side of the market again and suffer big losses. PDF guide: Technical Trading Mastery

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.

Crude Oil Setting Up For A Downside Price Rotation

Crude Oil has been trading in a fairly narrow range since mid-August – between $52 and $57 ppb.  Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system suggested the downside price move in late July/early August was expected and the current support aligns very well with our ADL predictions of higher price rotation throughout most of September/October.  Please take a minute to review the original research post below :

July 10, 2019: PREDICTIVE MODELING SUGGEST OIL HEADED MUCH LOWER

CRUDE OIL MONTHLY CHART FORECAST

We believe the current price highs, near $59 to $60, will likely continue as strong price resistance over the next 25+ trading days before a bigger breakdown begins near Mid-October.  We expect the price to continue rotating within a fairly narrow range in alignment with our ADL predictions.  Our original article suggested a high price target area near $60 from our ADL research.  Now that Crude Oil has nearly reached this level, we believe the continued upside opportunity in Crude Oil is limited. Be sure to opt-in to our Free Trade Ideas Newsletter to get more updates.

DAILY CRUDE OIL CHART

This Daily Crude Oil Chart highlights what we believe will become resistance just below the $60 price level and suggests the $55 to $56 price level may be intermediate support.  Thus, we expect the price to rotate a bit lower, possibly into the $54 to $56 level, then stall and rotate further as we transition into the end of September.

WEEKLY CRUDE OIL CHART TREND DIRECTION

We don’t expect anything crazy to happen in Oil until later in September or into early October.  Our ADL predictive modeling suggests that Crude Oil will peak in October and begin a broader downside move towards levels just below $50.  Crude Oil may begin this move a bit earlier than our ADL system predicts because of news or some fundamental data related to oil demand/supply.  It is not uncommon for the price to move towards the ADL predicted levels many weeks before or after our Monthly ADL predictions.  When we create the Monthly ADL charts, the data represented is based on highly probable levels for the completed month.  So, we know that near the month of October or November, Oil should be targeting the sub-$50 level.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Ultimately, near the end of 2019 or into early 2020, Oil should be targeting the sub-$30 price level on a larger downside price move.  Sub-$30 Oil would likely mean that global supply/demand issues, as well as global economic concerns, would be top-tier issues.  We believe the future price moves in Crude Oil will present very clear opportunities for skilled technical traders.  Right now, we have to be patient as the price continues to rotate above $55 and below $60 before the real price moves begin to take place.

I have had a series of great trades this month. In fact, over the past 20 months, my ETF trading newsletter portfolio has generated over 100% return when compounded for members. And we locking in 5.1% profits on Tuesday with the Russell 2000 index, and also XLU for a quick 1.43% profit as well. So, if you believe in technical analysis, then this is the newsletter and market condition for you to really shine, especially with my trading indicators coming online.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Be prepared for these price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.

Join me with a subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Sector Rotation Giving Mixed Signals About The Future

It seemed the markets wanted to make a point to alert us that volatility may be here to stay very early in trading this week.  After a fairly flat overnight session with very little price volatility, the markets opened up to a moderately large price rotation (first downward, then back higher) before settling into a broader downside move in the early afternoon in New York.  The interesting facet of this move is that it seemed to be related to price valuations and expectations in certain sectors. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter so stay on top of these market moves.

As we’ve been suggesting for many weeks and months, we are not out of the woods quite yet.  The US markets may be subject to more price volatility than we have considered while the continued Capital Shift (foreign capital pouring into the US markets) may also be shifting.  One thing is certain, now is not the time to try to set up positional trades in the market expecting longer-term price trends to set up and run over the next few months.  This appears to be a traders market where skilled technical traders will shine by finding opportunities and executing very skilled and targeted trades for profits.

Many months ago we authored an article about the US Presidential election cycle and how that event plays into market uncertainty and price activity.  We are currently entering the prime span of time where price rotation and volatility because of this election event should take place.  This “price malaise” typically happens about 16 months before the election date.  As we move closer to the elections, the markets typically become much more volatile and enter a period where the price tends to consolidate near recent lows or establish moderate new lows as attention shifts away from the economy and towards the election news.

If you are serious about trading, this is when you want to pay very close attention to the various market sectors and understand that opportunities may be very short and sweet for profits.

Mid Cap Stock Index 30 Minute Chart Pattern

This first chart is the MC (S&P 400 Midcap) which shows how price strength in this sector moved against the overall price trend of the ES, YM, and others.  From the start of trading, the MC appeared to have a stronger upside price bias than the other US major market sectors.  This may mean that traders are finding real value in the Midcap sector and are stepping back into this sector thinking it may have some real opportunity for growth.

Transportation Index – 30 Minute Chart

Additionally, the Transportation Index moved higher in a similar structure.  The Transportation Index typically leads the US stock market by 3 to 6 months as an indicator of future price expectations related to the need for trucks, rail, shipping, and other economic-related activities.  More need for shipping/transportation solutions means a more active economy.  A more active economy means more buying and selling of goods, services, and other items.  Thus, if the Transportation Index can break recent high levels and begin a new upside price move, it would be a very clear sign that the US economy is strengthening and that the US major indexes may begin a new upside price move soon.

VIX – Volatility Index 30 Minute Chart

The VIX, on the other hand, is still showing us that price volatility has not vanished quite yet.  The VIX started moving higher early in trading and continues to push a bit higher right now.  If the VIX moves back above 18 or 19 quickly, the we are likely going to see increased volatility in certain sectors of the market which could present real problems for traders.  As long as the VIX stays below 18, then the volatility may stay a bit muted going forward.

Pay attention to the VIX and what happens to the major stock indexes over the next 2+ weeks.  Trade accordingly.  This is not your simple, safe trending market any longer.  This is larger volatility with increased risks.

If you are not a very skilled technical trader that understands risks and position sizing, then this market is probably not for you.  This is where you will likely chew through your account trying to run longer-term setups in a very choppy market environment.

Volatility is key.  Until the VIX settles back down below 12, we are going to continue to experience bigger, more volatile price rotations.  Some may be as large as 2% or 3% as news hits.  This is why we must understand the risks that are at play here and how to protect our assets from losses.  Remember, you don’t have to be in a trade all the time in order to profit from the markets.  Watch for the proper setups and wait for the proper entry point before this market chews you up and spits you out.

We believe our super-cycle research and other proprietary modeling systems are suggesting that price weakness will dominate the markets for the next few months. Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis and recession.

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

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Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Price Structure Still Suggests We Are Within Volatile Rotation

This shortened holiday week has been full of crazy price rotation, political intrigue, surprise news events and, we are certain, full of headaches for some traders.  Still, we managed to pull out four consistently profitable trades for our members by sticking to our proven trading systems and deploying effective position sizing techniques.  Not a bad week for us at all.

Today, we are writing this research post to highlight that price is still not “out of the woods” in terms of price structure and/or price rotation.  Yes, there was quite a bit of external news that drove prices higher on Thursday and Friday (BREXIT, Earnings, and China decreasing the lending rates as well as decreasing bank asset levels in an effort to prompt more lending).  These news items continue to drive price action and rotation.  The VIX has settled at 15.00 as of Friday – the lowest level seen since early August 2019.  Our opinion is that this is just a brief pause before more chaos hits the markets.

The BREXIT news was straight out of a suspense novel.  At the very last minute, a coalition of political interests changed direction in an effort to stop the NO-DEAL BREXIT that seemed to be almost a sure thing.  We don’t have any more information than what is printed in the news publications, but we believe the NO-DEAL BREXIT will happen this year.

Earnings were mixed with some interesting surprises.  Jobs data came in relatively strong on Friday with higher earnings and higher working hours, yet job creation levels fell a bit from expected levels.

China seems to be relaxing its bank restrictions in an effort to jump-start their local economy.  We read that current debt levels are 300% of GDP in China (and that only accounts for debt that is stated in official economic data).  If one were to include the shadow banking system and corporate debt/bonds, we believe it could be as high as $425% of GDP or higher.

Then we have multiple countries in crisis (risk of bankruptcy) where the IMF is likely to try to develop some type of “bailout” solution.  The most recent is Argentina.  Additionally, the IMF has introduced new Cryptocurrency regulations that may stifle some emerging market ICO and existing Crypto operations as the IMF attempt to get a handle on these unregulated threats to traditional currency policies.

And we are just scratching the surface so far…  What next – right?

Well, here is a Weekly ES chart highlighting the Fibonacci price structure that appears to be, very much, in need of establishing fresh new highs in order to confirm this continued bullish trend.  Right now, very similar to what happened in 2018, we are nearing an October date, near all-time highs, with fresh signs of weakness appearing throughout the global economy.  Trade issues continue, people are talking about recessions and Gold and Silver have started an incredible upside move.  Will the US stock market continue to rally from this point or rollover into a price correction?

It all depends on what happens over the next 2+ weeks and if the “capital shift” that we have continued to suggest is driving capital in the US stock market hasn’t broken rank yet.  If foreign capital is continuing to pour into the US stock market for safety, then we may very well see another attempt at new all-time highs.  If the recent weakness has spooked some investors out of the markets as Gold and Silver have caught their attention, then this capital shift may be much more muted at this time – meaning price volatility is much more of a concern.

SP500 Stock Index – Weekly Chart

The ES price will attempt to either move to new all-time highs or roll lower and take out the 2728 level.  We believe the key to this future direction lies in which news items play out over the next 2+ weeks and if the price is able to return back to a “true price exploration” mode (without the news events).

Weekly Transportation Sector Index Chart

This weekly TRAN, Transportation Index, highlights a broader picture of why our researchers are still concerned about a market correction.  The fact that the price peaks have continued to move lower as a series of lower high price peaks is very concerning.

This is indicative of a downward price trend or a trend that is consolidating lower.  The strength of support near 9695 is the only real strength we see in this TRAN chart in terms of “support for an upside move”.  The TRAN chart price must break this downward series of lower price peaks in order for the US markets to really enter a new bullish price trend.  Until that happens, we continue to stay worried that the foundation of the US markets may be crumbling below our feet while the party rages on in the US major indexes.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Our August 19th prediction of a breakdown event has obviously been invalidated by this recent upside price move.  Depending on which way price breaks out of pattern will either validate or invalidate our expected forecast. As of right now, it looks like our August 19th prediction has been invalidated and we were wrong thinking it would break down. With that said, we had three winning trades we closed out last week for solid profits and a new high water-mark for our trading portfolio.

Although, until the US stock market rotates higher to establish new all-time highs, we are not out of the woods yet.  This recent upside price move has not completely invalidated the chance of a breakdown because we have not already validated “new price highs” which are required in Fibonacci price theory.  Right now, we are in the midst of volatile price rotation and we are loving every minute of it.

This is the type of price action that is perfect for skilled technical traders.  Trade setups continue to pour into our systems.  As we stated near the top of this article, we had a series of great trades this week resulting in nearly +15% total profits for our members.  If you are a skilled technical trader, then this is the market for you to really shine.

Be prepared for these price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.

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Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

US Stock Market Setting Up A Pennant Formation

As we’ve been warning over the past few weeks and months, the current price rotation in the US stock market is very much related to the strength of the US Dollar and the continued Capital Shift that is taking place as trade issues and currency valuations drive investors into the US equity and debt markets as protection against risk.  We talk about some of these new Super-Cycles starting and how we can take advantage of them in this new guide.

The US Dollar stalled today after a recent price decline from just above $98 to a current level near $96.60.  Over the past 15+ months, the US Dollar has risen from lows near $88 to highs near $98 – an 11.2% price rally.  Meanwhile, many other foreign currencies have collapsed over this same span of time.

We believe the continued Capital Shift is driving further investment in the US stock market and debt market as a way to avoid the risks of further currency valuation declines and as a means of protecting wealth.  Until this currency dynamic changes, we expect the strength of the US economy and US Dollar to continue to push investors into the US equity markets.

This being said, a very interesting dynamic is starting to set up.  Gold and Silver have started to move higher while Oil, Natural Gas and other commodities are pushing lower.  This type of activity in the commodity markets suggests some increased fear is driving investors away from speculating on increased global economic activities and pushing capital into expectations of a market top or deeper correction.

We’ve read recently where institutional traders have started initiating heavy short positions in the US markets and we believe these investors have jumped the gun a bit.  We don’t see how or where a massive US market collapse is likely given the current strength in the US Dollar and the US economy.  Yes, at some point this dynamic may shift and at some point, we may see a fairly deep correction of 12% to 18%.  We believe that a top may happen in August or September 2019 – after the US stock market (DOW) reaches new all-time highs above $30k.

Right now, we believe the first rotation of our expected Pennant/Flag formation is starting to set up and we look for early signs in the DOW and TRAN charts.

This TRAN chart shows price rotation near the CYAN resistance level originating from the late April peak and spanning the early May price high.  We believe this resistance level may play a key role in understanding how and when the next upside price leg begins to advance.  We expect a downside price rotation to take place pushing the TRAN towards the $9600 level over the next few days/weeks.

This YM chart highlights a similar price pattern, but clearly illustrates one key difference – the New Price High.  This fundamental element of Fibonacci price theory is that any attempt to break a past critical price high which results in a “new price high” designates the current trend as Bullish.  Within Fibonacci price theory, price is always seeking to establish new price highs or new price lows – AT ALL TIMES.  Therefore, a new price high or new price low is very significant.

The TRAN chart may continue to consolidate below the CYAN resistance level whereas the YM chart may attempt to push higher, with a bullish bias, setting up a Pennant/Flag formation as we expect.  This would indicate that even though economic and transportation expectations are waning, the bullish bias in the YM suggests the Capital Shift factor is still pushing the US stock market upward.

Pay close attention to that big blue ellipse near the top of the chart.  We drew that in place many months ago as an indicator of where we believe critical resistance is should the markets attempt to push higher and attempt new all-time highs.

We still believe this resistance is valid and as price rotates into the Pennant/Flag formation, we’ll extend this resistance forward – carrying the same slope and angle forward.  If the YM is going to attempt a move to above $30k before our expected August/September 2019 top setup, it will have to push well above this resistance zone to accomplish this move.

Watch Gold and Silver over the next 3 to 4 weeks as any perceived weakness will push the precious metals higher still.  We believe Gold will reach $1450 this summer and possibly higher before August as smart money rotates into the safe havens in anticipation of a bear market.

If you wanna become a technical trader with use and trade ETFs then be sure to join our Wealth Building Newsletter today and get our daily video analysis and swing trade alerts. In the past 17 months, our newsletter trade signals have generated 91% ROI for its subscribers, be sure to join before the markets start making new big moves and profit with us!

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Adaptive Price Modeling Suggests Big Rotation In US Dow Stocks

I have been pouring over the longer term charts as we’ve started to see Oil and Gold move in directions that would indicate increased fear throughout the global markets while a contraction in economic activity/oil prices appears to be setting up for another big move.  The objective is to attempt to identify longer-term volatility expectations and price targets.  To accomplish this task, we use our Adaptive Fibonacci predictive modeling utility on 3 Week charts because they provide a unique look at price activity and are a bit more reactive to shorter-term price activity than Monthly price bars.

We found some very interesting components by reviewing these charts of the ES, NQ, YM, and CL.  We believe we are setting up a 2~4+ week sideways price rotation in the US stock market as price attempts to consolidate within this range before a broader breakout/breakdown move could happen.  Just as we predicted many months ago, the July 2019 price peak we suggested could form appears to be setting up with a sideways pennant/flag formation as investors digest the economic and global trade war news data.

Eventually, the price will make a move in an attempt to break this sideways price channel and our predictive modeling solutions can help us to understand how these price setups will playing out.  Let’s get into the charts and research.

As we start to pull apart the data from these charts, we urge you to pay attention to two things – the range of the current Bullish & Bearish Fibonacci Price Trigger levels and current price rotations of price peaks and troughs over the past 40 to 60 bars.  It is very important to understand and attempt to use the “new price high” and “new price low” Fibonacci price theory that we keep talking about in our articles.

This first chart is the ES 3-Week chart highlighting the range between the Fibonacci Bullish and Bearish Price Trigger Levels (highlighted in light-CYAN).  It is important to understand why the current bearish price trigger level is so far below current price levels.  The Adaptive Fibonacci modeling system adjusts trigger levels based on recent price activity and price volatility to attempt to identify when the price is congesting in a sideways price trend or trending upward or downward.  When price congests in a sideways form, the Adaptive Fibonacci modeling tool identifies this and determines that price would need to move to new levels in order to qualify for a new bullish or bearish price trigger.  In this case, it is suggesting that price would need to fall below $2014 before this 3-Week chart would qualify the move as a “new bearish trend”.

That is a big move from current levels.  It totals more than -750 points – a -27.5% price decline.

Currently, as long as the ES price stays above the $2633 level, the Fibonacci predictive modeling system is still suggesting the Bullish trend is intact and should continue.

 

This NQ 3-Week chart is setup in a similar manner to the ES chart. Although the Fibonacci volatility range on the NQ chart is much more narrow than the ES chart, the Fibonacci modeling system is still suggesting that the current trend is still Bullish and the key levels for the triggers are $6792 for the Bearish Trigger level and $6556 for the Bullish Trigger level.

Because of the narrow volatility range and because the Bearish trigger level is above the Bullish trigger level, we believe a price rotation where the price stays above $6800 is very likely over the next few weeks.  Obviously, should price break below the Bearish Trigger level, then we would begin to become concerned that a broader downside trend is being established and start to look at the Fibonacci downside price targets (near $5815 & $3900).  Until that happens, expect sideways price rotation with a 250 to 500 point range on average (about 2x the Fibonacci volatility range).

 

The YM is really the key to understanding just how the markets are going to play out over the next few weeks and months.  The extremely large Fibonacci volatility range on the YM chart highlights the potential for the wild sideways price rotation that we are expecting over the next few weeks and months.  Remember, our analysis from many months ago suggests a price peak will likely form in July/August 2019 and prompt a broader downside price move after this peak completes.  Our expectation that a current sideways price channel is setting up leads us to believe the apex of this sideways price channel may result in a very brief price rally (pushing prices back towards recent highs) before rolling over and starting a new downside price move to coincide with our July/Aug 2019 predictions.

One way or another, it appears the DOW/YM will be leading the way in terms of price volatility and rotation.  The wide range between the Bullish and Bearish Fibonacci Price Trigger Levels is suggesting that price volatility is increasing and that the YM would have to move to levels above $29,750 or to levels below $18,875 before establishing any new price trends.  The past Fibonacci trigger levels help us to understand key price levels as this future move takes place.

Past Fibonacci Trigger Price levels are $26,025 for a Bearish Price Trigger level and $24,770 for a Bullish Price Trigger Level.  This means if the price is below $26,025 – we should expect a bearish price trend to continue and if the price is above $24,770 – we should expect a bullish price trend to continue.  Yet, price is current BETWEEN both of these levels, so what should we expect right now?  When the price is in between these levels, like now, we typically look for the last price rotation (peak or valley) and for the last level that was crossed (in this case the $26,025 Bearish level) and would conclude:

The trend is currently Bearish and the $26,025 level is key to maintaining this bearish price direction.  Should price move back above this level and close above this Bearish Price Trigger Level, then we would consider the trend “moderately bullish” while we wait for a new Price Trigger Level Breach to setup.

 

Lastly, Crude Oil.  We’ve been writing to all of our followers that we felt Oil was setting up for a price rotation many weeks ago.  We warned that the $65 price level may be the end of the move and that the $55 to $50 levels are the likely downside targets.  The volatility range is somewhat narrow and the last Trigger Level that was breached was the Bearish Trigger Level near $68.75. Therefore, we believe the recent downside price move, below the $60 Bullish Trigger level, results in a new Bearish price trend with immediate targets near or below $50.  Ultimately, the $42.40 level may be the longer term downside price target – which would coincide with a broader commodities slowdown and global economic activity contraction.

 

So here is what you need to know to go into this weekend and for the next 4+ weeks.

Expect the US stock market to trade in a moderately volatile sideways price channel for the next 4+ weeks.

Expect the end of this price channel to result in a “false rally” move that may push prices towards recent highs before faltering and rotating back to the downside.

Expect this END of the sideways price channel to happen sometime near mid-July or early August 2019.

Expect Gold and Oil to continue to react as “fear measures” over the next few weeks/months as global traders reposition their assets throughout this rotation.

Expect a bigger price move near late July through September~October 2019 as this volatility move really begins to take root with equities.

Follow our research and learn how we can help you stay well ahead of these price moves.  We’ve just highlighted what is likely to happen over the next 30 to 60 days in this research post.  Want to know how we are going to trade these moves?  Join our other members to see how we create success and keep our members ahead of these big moves. Also, if you wanted me to ship you free silver rounds with a subscription to this Wealth Trading Newsletter you better join today as this offer expires June 1st.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Oil, Hot Stocks, and Currencies – Part III

In our continued effort to help skilled traders/investors understand the future risks associated with geopolitical market turmoil, the EU Elections next week and the continued US/China trade war, this Part III of our Sector Rotation article will highlight certain sectors that we believe may continue to perform over the next 12 to 24+ months and help traders/investors survive any extended price volatility/rotation over that same time. Read Part I, and Part II.

Currently, the US stock market has weathered a bit of a jolt in terms of price rotation.  After many stock indexes reached new all-time highs, the news of Iran Oil Sanctions, US/China trade talks failing and the political turmoil in DC as an incredible 2020 US Presidential election cycle heats up, investors are watching the markets for any signs of strength or weakness.  Meanwhile, the US Dollar continues to strengthen against other global currencies in an incredible show of “King Dollar” strength and dominance.  All of this plays into one of our favorite narratives that we started discussing over 30 months ago – the Global Capital Shift.

For those of you who remember our many articles about this global market phenomenon and the root causes of it, we’ll try to keep the following example/explanation of it fairly short.  For those of you that are new to our research, please allow us to try to explain the Capital Shift event and why it is important to understand.

The Capital Shift started after the 2008-09 global credit market collapse.  The US and many other nations created an easy money policy that was designed to spark investment and recovery across the globe.  This easy money, at first, supported failing companies and governments in order to maintain social order and structure.  After that process was completed, this capital went to work investing in under-valued global markets and assets.  As prices continued to rise and the easy money policies became rooted into the social structure, the hunt for greater returns rotated throughout the planet – diving into undervalued markets and opportunities, often with no regard for risk.

After 2014, things began to change in the US and throughout the planet.  The US entered a period of extended sideways trading that caused many investors to reconsider the “buy the dip” mentality.  In 2014-15, China initiated “capital controls” in an effort to prevent outflows of capital from a newly rich population and corporate structure.  Just before 2014, the Emerging Markets went through a period of pricing collapse which was associated with over-inflated expectations and $100+ oil.  All of that started changing in 2014~2016 as Oil prices collapsed – taking with it the expectations and promises of many Emerging Market investors and speculators.

This shifting of capital in search of “returns with a moderate degree of risk” is what we are calling the “Capital Shift Event”.  It is still taking place and it is our opinion that the US stock market will become the central focus of global capital investment over the next 4+ years.  We believe the strength of the US Dollar and the strength of the US Stock Market/US Economy will drive future capital investment into US and other US Associated major markets in an attempt to avoid risks associated with the foreign market and currency market valuations.  In other words, when the crap starts flying across the globe, cash will rush into the US and other safe-haven investments to protect real value.

 

Currently, the potential for another price decline in Crude Oil is rather strong with our research expecting a move back below $55 ppb over the next 4+ months.  We believe a further economic contraction across the globe with a very strong potential for increased price volatility will drive Oil prices back below $55 with a very strong potential for prices to settle near $46~48 before the downward trend is completed.

The potential for some type of price contraction over the next 12+ months will be related to how the global and localized economic concerns play out over the next 24+ months.  Yet, investors can prepare for these extended price rotations now by becoming aware of weakening price trends and the potential that certain sectors will likely be hit harder than others.  For example, the most recent price weakness in the US stock market appears to be focused in certain sectors:

Technology, Semiconductors, Scientific Instruments, Financials, Asset Management, Property Management, Banking (Generally all over the US), Consumer Goods – Electronics, Airlines, Mail Order Services, Industrial Goods, Aerospace/Defense, Farming and Farming Supply, Medical Laboratories, Medical Appliances, Oil & Gas and others.  This type of market contraction is fairly common in an early stage Commodity and Industrial economic slowdown.

 

The sectors that are improving over the past week are : Healthcare, Electric Utilities, Diversified Utilities, Gas Utilities, Consumer Personal Products, Consumer Confectioners, Cigarettes, Entertainment, Beverages and Soft Drinks, Meat Products, Specialty Eateries, REITS (almost all types), Credit Services, Telecom and Telecom/Communication Services.

All of these are protectionist rallies based on the US/China trade war and the market rotation away from Technology/manufacturing growth and into more consumer protectionist spending mode – where the consumer and larger firms focus on core items while expecting a mild recession within the economy.  All of this is very common at this time within the US Presidential Election cycle.  In fact, our researchers have shown that nearly 80% of the time when a major US presidential election is taking place, the US stock markets will decline within the 24 months prior to the election date.

The Monthly S&P heat map is not much different.  It is still showing weakness where we expect and strength in sectors that have been somewhat dormant over the past 4+ years.  The key to success for skilled traders is to be able to play this future price rotation very effectively as the different sectors continue to rotate headed into the 2020 US Presidential Elections and with all of the external foreign market factors taking place.

 

It is quite likely that the US Dollar will continue to push high, possibly well above $102, before finding any real resistance.  It is very likely that most of the US stock market will fair quite well over the next 24+ months – yet we do expect some extended price rotation over this time and we believe Technology, Financials, Real estate, and Industrial/Consumer related stock sectors could take a hit over the next 16 to 24 months.  These rotations are, again, common for this type of US Presidential Election cycle.  Skilled traders are already aware of this cycle and have begun to prepare for this event to unfold.  The unknowns of the current global market is China and the EU at present.

 

And with that last US Dollar chart, there you have it.  Our three-part article about how the Global Capital Shift is about to intensify and continue to drive a US Sector rotation that many traders have failed to consider.  The EU elections, the US/China trade wars, and the US Presidential Election event are all big factors in what we believe will drive in an increased level of uncertainty over the next 16~24 months.  Additionally, we are very concerned that China is very close to experiencing what we are calling a “broken backbone” over the next 12+ months.  We believe the pricing pressures in combination with a slowing economy and a consumer move into a protectionist stance could create a waterfall event in China/Asia.

Our advice for traders is to protect open long positions and to prepare for 16 to 36 months of “repositioning” of the global markets.  The US elections are certain to drive an incredible range of future expectations throughout the world.  Combine that with the EU elections, the BREXIT effort and the continued repositioning of US/China/Foreign market relations and we are setting up for a big shock-wave event in the near future.

Follow our research.  We’ve already mapped out the next 24 to 36 months of market price activity with our proprietary price modeling tools.  We believe we know what will happen over the next 24 to 36 months, we are just waiting for the price to confirm our analysis. Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn more.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.