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Emergency Technical Traders Market Crash Update & Video Analysis

The US stock market opened Sunday, March 8, 2020, dramatically lower.  Oil collapsed 25% to near $30.  Gold shot higher to levels just above $1700.  All of the major US indexes were lower than 5%.  As of this morning, the US major indexes are lower by 6.40%, and oil down 23%. Bonds are set to open 7-8% higher at this time.

As mentioned in yesterday’s update, we could see metals and miners get hit with margin calls, and silver took a beating last night down over 5%, and miners are down 5% in pre-market, so things could get uglier yet.

The war on oil has officially started. To me, it’s a typical bully/bad guy move. When everyone is bleeding, and in trouble like the financial markets, everyone’s mental state, and our health, the true bullies and bad guys (sharks) come out of the woodwork. Russia is being difficult and will keep production high for oil; the Saudis are giving out hug discounts on oil and jacking up their production to flood the market with their oil and take as much of the market share possibly. When blood is in the water, the sharks attack.

This oil war is going to devastate the USA and Canadian oil sectors and businesses if the price of oil trades between $20-35 per barrel, which I think is what will happen and could last a few years.

The US futures for stock hit a circuit breaker and halted futures trading of the Indexes once a 5% drop took place, but ETF and regular stocks will continue to trade. The next round of circuit breakers are only during regular trading hours and was implemented after the May 10, 2010, flash crash.

This new set of circuit breakers have never been hit before which are:
A drop of 7% stock halt for 15 minutes.
A drop of 13% stocks halt for 15 minutes.
A drop of 20% stocks halt for the rest of the session.

This is a huge breakdown in the US markets and indicates much greater weakness within the global markets and further concern that the COVID-19 virus may continue to disrupt the US and European markets (as well as others).

The potential that multiple billion-dollar disruptions in the US and other foreign markets, including travel, leisure, autos, hospitality, and many others, may see a continued decline in sales and incomes over the next 6+ months.  We don’t believe we will truly understand the total scope of this COVID-19 virus event until possibly well after July 2020.

The crazy part is I’m in a little secluded town in Canada, and people are starting to panic and buy food and toilet paper for their bunker stash. Almost everyone I talked to this weekend while out snowboarding has been affected by manufacturing, trade show cancellations, travel restrictions, etc..  We are in a full out global crisis that seems to affect everyone in some way no matter their location, occupation, or business.

There will be some great opportunities to find and execute incredible trading opportunities – yet the risks are very high right now for volatility and price rotation.  Think of the markets like a body of water in a severe storm.  The waters are very choppy, unstable, and chaotic – just like the markets.

Unless you have the right information, skills, and vehicle to navigate these waters, there is a very high probability that a dangerous outcome could happen. I closed out our last position on Friday with our TLT bond trade for a 20.07% profit and we are 100% cash watching this market VS trying to survive it.

Right now, Cash is king.
Waiting for proper setups and understanding risks is critical.  Timing your entries and targets is critical.  Learning to stay away from excessive risk is essential.

We’ll scan the markets for you and find the best opportunities that set up over the next week.

We appreciate your loyalty and want to continue to deliver superior analysis and research.  Please be well aware that the current market environment is very dangerous for traders.  The VIX recently touched above 50.  We believe it could reach levels above 75~90 still.  These are incredible levels for the VIX.

WATCH VIDEO ANALYSIS

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watched then subscribe to the premium trading newsletter today and
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Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Lumber is about to rally and how to play it with this ETF

WOOD, one of the Ishares ETF symbols related to the Real Estate and Construction sectors may become the next hottest instrument for skilled technical traders.  Over the past three years, Wood has rallied over 110% between a $40 to $84 range and the trading volume of WOOD has been relatively consistent near an average of about 140k shares per week.  Let’s dig into the opportunities that may present themselves over the next 6 to 12+ months in WOOD.

First, you can get more information about this iShares ETF here.

Second, the WOOD ETF is relatively closely correlated to the US Real Estate and Construction sectors. Thus, when economic data is announced that supports growing Real Estate and Construction activity, traders can easily translate that into forward expectations in price in the WOOD ETF.  For the purposed of this article, we’ll stick with a simple example of New Private Housing Unit Building Permits data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve.

Before you continue, take a couple of seconds and join our free trend signals email list.

NEW HOUSING BUILDING PERMITS

As you can see from the chart below, since the bottom of the housing market crisis in 2009, an extended bottom to place between 2009 and 2011.  Early in 2012, the housing market began to uptick with an increase in housing permits.

This increase continued until a peak in 2015 rattled the markets (right before the 2016 Elections).  The post-2016 recovery and rotation in housing permits are very clear to see through the end of 2018 and we can see an uptick in new building permits in 2019 as the US Federal Reserve change focus fairly early in 2019 to reduce the Fed Funds Rate and ease economic concerns globally.

This uptick in the housing permit data presents a fairly clear picture that builders are expecting a moderate increase in activity over the next 12+ months related to new home sales, inventory, and activity.  How can you learn to profit from these trends?

WOOD WEEKLY PRICE CHART

This Weekly WOOD chart highlights the trends that correlate to the housing permit chart above.  Notice how the growth from 2013 to 2015 was more moderate compared to the growth between 2017 and 2018?  This reflects the investor sentiment related to real economic activity and expectations.

In the 2014/2015 period, housing prices were still recovering well, yet the US Fed was also starting to raise interest rates from extreme lows and the US was headed into a very contentious election cycle.

You can see how WOOD contracted in 2016 as rates crept higher and the US election took hold of the markets – causing uncertainty and fear in the consumer market.  This fear translated to a slowdown of activity and expectations in the housing market that reflected a price decline in WOOD in 2016.

The rally, after the November 2016 US presidential elections, clearly illustrates that investors and consumers believed the new US President would usher in an economic boom cycle – no matter what the US Fed did (for the most part).

Currently, WOOD has retraced from $84 to levels near $54.  The current uptick in housing permits suggests builders and construction are ramping up expecting a bump in housing activity over the next 12+ months.  It could be that builders are expecting the US Fed to continue easing or a more positive business/political climate for consumers and wages.  Either way, the uptick in building permits suggests forward expectations are positive at this time.  If WOOD breaks above the $67/68 level, a new price rally may continue towards the $76 level.

DAILY WOOD PRICE TARGET CHART

One of our favorite measures of price activity is the “100% Fibonacci Measured Move”.  This Fibonacci price theory suggests that price typically legs higher or lower in 100% (or near 100%) legs/moves.  By taking a look at a previous price advance/leg, we measure that move and apply that range to a recent pullback to determine where the next 100% Measured Move may target.

In this case, the $76.40 level becomes the new 100% Fibonacci Measure Move target if the upside breakout happens as we expect.  This represents a 15%+ upside price move potential for skilled technical traders.

If wood starts to collapse in price, it could be the start of the next real estate crash we explain here.

We’ve been warning our followers and members that 2019 and 2020 are going to be excellent environments for technical traders.  Price rotation, trends and volatility should continue throughout the next 12+ months and well past the 2020 US elections.

Following wood/lumber may be new to you and that’s great because its another angle to profit from an asset class, not many traders talk about. We will also go into more detail in a future article on how we use the wood to gold ratio to help predict stock market direction. This may sound strange but, but this ratio plays a powerful roll in knowing when the big and smart money is rotating into the risk on/off asset classes.

In fact, both WOOD and Gold have bullish price patterns and one of them will fail, the question is which one? A couple of days ago we posted our analysis about what is happening in gold right now.

In short, rotations in ETFs, such as this potential move in WOOD, will continue to set up and rotate throughout the 2020 election event and beyond we’ll keep you informed as this plays out with Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter. Join us with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar Shipped To You as a Bonus!

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Chris Vermeulen
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Can Oil Stay Above $50 To Support Producers Expectations?

Recent news suggests that oil producers are attempting to increase production levels after failing to attempt to push prices higher by cutting production levels.  Globally, oil producers want to see oil prices rise above $65 ppb in an effort to support profit and production cost expectations.  The real issue for the nation/states that rely on oil production/sales is that the global economy may not cooperate with their expectations over the next 24+ months. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter so stay on top of these market moves. On August 6th, 2019, we posted this article suggesting that Natural Gas and Crude Oil were setting up diverging trades. August 6th, 2019: NATURAL GAS AND CRUDE OIL – DIVERGING SETUPS FOR TECHNICAL TRADERS At that time, we wrote that we expected Crude oil to break lower from the $62 ppb level and target $55, then $49 based on our original Crude Oil research from May 21, 2019. Additionally, on July 29, 2019, we authored and posted this article suggesting that Crude Oil would begin a downside move from $55 to levels near $50 : All of this research was related to our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) research post from July 10, 2019: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/predictive-modeling-suggest-oil-headed-much-lower-by-early-2020/ This incredible predictive modeling research suggested that Oil would move dramatically lower towards the $50 level, then stall near $50 to $55+ through September and October.  Ultimately breaking lower in late October/November to levels near or below $40.

Crude Oil Daily Chart Analysis

Our researchers believe Crude Oil could become very volatile as price nears the apex of the Pennant/Flag formation that is setting up.  This Daily chart highlights the attempted “scouting party” price rotation above the price resistance channel.  The news over the past holiday weekend suggests the global economy may not see any real bump in activity over the next 12+ months and we believe this aligns with our longer-term research that Oil should target the sub $40 price level before the end of 2019 and potentially fall to levels below $30 in early 2020.

Crude Oil Weekly Chart Analysis

We believe the key to all of this price rotation is the $50.50 level and what price does over the next 30 to 60+ days.  There is a potential that price may attempt a brief upside move over this span of time, but the true intent of price is to move lower based on our ADL price modeling system.  Therefore, we believe the downside potential is the most opportunistic for traders.  The next price target based on our Fibonacci bearish price trigger level is the $45 price range.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

This move could take place quickly, over the next 2 to 3 weeks on a breakdown move, or over many months.  Watch the $50.50 level as that is the key.  If the price falls to any level below $50.50, then we could be moving towards the $45 level or even the $40 on a big move related to global economic expectations.  Otherwise, expect the price to move towards the $50.50 level over the next few weeks as this support level is key to all future moves. As we wait for the next leg to start to move prices lower, pay attention to any upside price activity as that may present a very clear entry point for skilled technical traders. We believe our super-cycle research and other proprietary modeling systems are suggesting that price weakness will dominate the markets for the next few months. Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis and recession. In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH SUBSCRIPTION!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Global market Chaos means Precious Metals will Continue to Rise

Reading the new today of the riots and protests in Hong Kong as well as the military action between Iran and Israel suggests to us that the metals markets are poised for a very big run this week and possibly much further into the future. This type of Chaos creates a level of uncertainty in the global markets that will prompt a massive surge in the precious metals markets as traders and investors continue to pour into precious metals as a means to hedge against fear and weakness in the global markets.  At this point, we believe a move in Gold could easily target $1640 or higher and Silver could target just under $21 over the next 5 to 10 days.  This type of move would represent a +7 to 10% rally in Gold and a +10 to 20% rally in Silver. Pay attention to how the ES, NQ, and YM react to trading as markets open on Sunday and Monday evening as well as the news events related to these issues.  Any escalation of tensions and fighting between parties throughout the world will likely shed shock waves throughout the global economy as well as prompt a contraction in price levels. We attempted to warn all of our followers that the August 19th breakdown super-cycle event would likely present a massive potential for a price correction to the downside.  These super-cycle events operate on a much broader scale and scope than most people realize.  A delay of 20 to 30 days for an event to begin is equal to a span of 10 seconds in the larger scope and perspective of these bigger events.  Pay attention as this move really begins to play out over the next 25+ days.

Weekly Gold Chart

This weekly gold chart has followed our expectations from April/May 2019 almost perfectly.  Our original target of just below $1600 has almost been reached.  Now, with the global chaos playing out in China, Hong Kong, and other locations, we believe Gold could rally well past the $1600 and possibly move as high as $1640 to $1675 before attempting to stall and rotate. What is interesting is that the price of gold is hitting new highs is most other currencies. This is something we will talk about in another article here shortly, so be sure to opt-in to our Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter

Weekly Silver Chart

Silver, which has continued to impress even the most passive traders. It has continued to outperform Gold over the past 30+ days.  Overall, our original target range of $18.75 – $21 is still valid, but we believe the true upside potential in silver is well past $34.  Right now, we believe Silver could rally well past $24 as the chaos in the foreign markets rattles global investors.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

If you followed our research over the past few months, you would have already known about these setups and trades.  If not, now is the time to pay attention.  The markets are going to react to this foreign market chaos by attempting to find true price valuation levels related to the fear and future economic expectations of the entire market.  Get ready for some really big moves over the next 8+ weeks. As we’ve been suggesting for more than 12 months, 2019 and 2020 are going to be fantastic years for skilled technical traders or subscribers of our Weal Building Newsletter.  The potential for big trades (20% or more), like our recent UGLD 24% trade, will continue to set up in different sectors and global markets.  All we need to do is stay on top of the opportunities to find ways to profit from these moves. We believe our super-cycle research and other proprietary modeling systems are suggesting that price weakness will dominate the markets for the next few months. Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis and recession. In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH SUBSCRIPTION!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Precious Metals: T-Minus 3 Seconds To Liftoff

We take great pride in our research team’s ability to make accurate predictions and calls in the markets.  In addition to the many predictions and calls we’ve made over the past few years, our Gold prediction from October 2018 continues to astound many industry professionals. We receive emails from people asking how we were able to make such an incredible call in Gold 6 to 8 months before these price moves?  We politely tell these people that our research team and our proprietary predictive modeling tools assist us in finding and making these incredible predictions.  The simple answer is it takes hard work, specialized tools and a lot of skill and research. Please take a minute to review some of our research from January 2019 that highlighted this incredible prediction for Gold and the supporting, more recent, research posts suggesting Silver is the real sleeper trade. January 28, 2019: MULTI YEAR BREAKOUT IN METALS June 7, 2019: ADL PREDICTIVE MODELING SUGGESTS A BIG MOVE IN SILVER : June 2, 2019: IS SILVER THE SLEEPER RALLY SETUP OF A LIFETIME? Today, we are highlighting what we believe is the momentum impulse move in Gold that will become the catalyst for the future move in Gold & Silver throughout the rest of this year and likely all of 2020.  The key element to launch Gold and Silver beyond current resistance levels is bound by two factors and could be boosted by a third.  The first two factors are “fear and greed”. Investors are continually searching for suitable investments with healthy returns and moderate risk.  As we have learned from the past, capital will flow into any investment, even instruments that include incredible long term risk factors, when the opportunity exists for gains and risk is mitigated.  The current upside price move in Gold is just such an event. The recent news items add additional fuel to the Precious Metals rally because they foster increased fear related to the global economy and potential military action or increased uncertainty.  This fear translates into the action of “protect my investments that may be exposed to greater risk and find an investment that reduces this risk and provides for greater returns/gains”.  That is the question Gold investors are asking themselves all over the world right now. The booster fuel, which would drive Gold and Silver into another galaxy is the US Dollar.  If the US Dollar were to weaken, even by 4% to 7%, while a global uncertainty event continued to unfold, we believe this valuation pressure would push Gold and Silver well above our current expectations. When we think about the current environment for precious metals, one has to understand that fear and greed don’t have to be tangible or overwhelming.  This process is almost like a perpetual motion machine.  Once the process gets started where investors pile into Gold because of the fear and greed factors, the price of gold rises.  Because the price of gold rises, traders start to pay closer attention to what is happening in gold and the greed factor starts to increase.  Once they are convinced this is a bigger opportunity and their fear levels are still valid, the conclusion is “I don’t want to miss this move in Gold, so I’ll get it now – before the big move happens”. It is as simple as that.  And this is why we are saying “T-Minus Three Seconds” before the big breakout move really takes shape.  That is our way of saying, it could happen any day now.  The breakout move and the momentum base appear to be ready to go. This Gold daily chart highlights the recent upward price move and shows just how quickly price can rally.  This resulted in a $75 price rally (+6%) in a matter of 10+ days.  Imagine what that will look like after Gold breaks above $1650 on the fear/greed move.
This Gold Weekly chart highlights what we expect to be the first upside leg – the move to $1450.  After that, we expect a brief pause in the rally (possibly 7 to 21+ days), then another big move higher where the price will rally above $1650.  That bigger move should solidify the focus of global investors and, much like the big move in Bitcoin, should attract a large number of investors not wanting to miss the rest of the upside move.
Silver is what we are calling the “sleeper trade” for precious metals bugs.  Sure, Gold has all the action right now because it is the leading metal to offset this fear/greed factor.  Silver always lags behind gold because it is the “little brother” to the bigger players in gold.  As our research has shown, when the move begins, Silver is actually a better trade than Gold because it will likely increase in price by a factor of 1.4 to 1.8 compared to the rally in gold prices. We believe the next move in Silver will target $18 to $20.  These price levels below $15 are a gift for anyone willing to take the trade.
This Monthly Silver chart shows what we believe will be the upside price waves as silver advances past $22.  Read the research posts, above, again to learn more about our more detailed expectations.  It is all right there for you to see and understand.
T-Minus Three And Counting.  We believe this setup is about to break to the upside and there is not much time left to see prices near these levels.  Below $1400 in gold and below $15 in silver are about to end.  When this really does begin to lift off as we’ve been predicting, we may never see these price levels again.  Well, at least in the foreseeable future. CONCLUSION AND UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY Its been an incredible year and a half for many reasons. We and our Subscribers portfolios are up over 91%. We called forecasted each and every move in gold 8 months before it all unfolded right down to the week for the low/bottom. This May we said it was a sell in May set up and we profited from the rally leading into May and traded and inverse ETF to profit from the correction. We then profited from the safe haven money flow into the utility sector which rallied while the stock market fell. And to top it off we shorted the vix spike for a quick 25% gain during a time when everyone else was panicking. So what does this all this mean? It means we have a good pulse on the major markets and can profit during times when most others can’t. I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these super cycles are going to last years. These super cycles starting to take place will go into 2020 and beyond which we lay out in our new book/guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime I am going to give away and ship out silver rounds to anyone who wants to trade and invest with me for the next 1-2 years through my Wealth Trading Newsletter. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans listed below, and you will receive:
1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE (Could be worth hundreds of dollars) 2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE (Could be worth a lot in the future) I only have 27 silver rounds I’m giving away so upgrade or join now before its too late! SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS TO GET YOUR FREE SILVER! Chris Vermeulen