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Treasuries Pause Near Resistance Before The Next Rally

Our research team believes the US Treasuries and the US Dollar will continue to strengthen over the next 2 to 6+ weeks as foreign market and emerging market credit and debt concerns outweigh any concerns originating from the US economy or political theater.  Overall, the major global economies will likely continue to see strength related to their currencies and debt instruments simply because the foreign market and emerging markets are dramatically more fragile than the more mature major global economies.

We believe the US Treasuries may surprise investors by rallying from current levels, near price resistance, to levels above $151 on the TLT chart.

Our belief is that further economic concerns related to trade, foreign economic metrics and data and the forward perspective of many emerging and foreign markets will continue to weaken much more dramatically than the US or other major global economies.  Thus, we believe capital will continue to pour into the US and more mature major global economic markets (Canada, Japan, Great Britain, Swiss) as a move to safety just as capital is moving into the precious metals markets.

When fear enters the global markets, capital seeks out the safest and most secure environments for investment.  If the rest of the world’s economies are becoming weaker and more fragile as trade and economic factors continue to hit the news wires, the more mature major economic countries are naturally going to benefit from their more robust and secure economic power and strength.  The flight to safety will result in capital moving away from risk and into the safety of these more mature economies simply because they provide a level of security and risk aversion that can’t be found elsewhere. Make sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.

DAILY TLT CHART

This Daily TLT chart highlights the resistance level that we believe is current constricting the current price advance from breaking higher.  We believe this resistance channel is causing the TLT price to pause below $147 and will continue to keep prices within this channel until some economic news event or positive US economic news item pushes the price higher.  The US and global markets are waiting for some type of news event before attempting to make another move.  We believe the future news will result in an upside technical breakout and a new rally towards the $152 to $155 level in TLT.

WEEKLY TLT CHART

This Weekly TLT chart highlights the extended bullish price rally that started back in late October 2018.  This upside price move has already rallied more than 40%, but we don’t believe it is over yet.  Our Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting $154 to $155 is the next upside price target.  To be a bit more conservative, we’ve targeted the $152 level for skilled traders to work with.  Once price achieves the $152 target level, look to cover any open long trades you may have.

If you are an active trader of gold, gold stocks, bonds, or the SP500 and would like to hear a trading style that reduces the amount of trades you take while making the same or better returns listen to this conversion with Adam Johnson who is an x-Bloomberg anchor, and now active trader.

Understanding how pricing and global market dynamics work throughout the stock market and the global market can be confusing at times.  How can one attempt to understand what will move in a certain direction, why it will move that way and how one can profit from these opportunities and be difficult for many people to grasp.  We do our best to try to help you by highlighting trade setups, explaining our thinking and research, sharing some of the charts with our proprietary trading tools and to help you identify strong opportunities for success.

Bonds are likely to continue to trade in a sideways price range before breaking higher near the end of 2019.  This aligns with our expectations that foreign markets may come under intense economic pressure while the US economy continues to provide safety for investors for the long term.  The support level above 157 is critical going forward.

DAILY PRICE CYCLE PREDICTED PRICE TREND

While cycle analysis helps us paint a clear picture of what to expect looking forward up to 45 days I still rely on my market trend charts to know when I should be buying or selling positions.

THE TECHNICAL TRADERS CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Right now, we believe the markets are waiting for some news events to make their next move.  This is the time to take very measured positions when trading.  This is NOT the time to go “all-in” on some trade.  Be prepared for a spike in volatility and a new price trend to establish within the next 3 to 10 trading days.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I urge you visit my ETF Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Today to Get a Free 1oz Silver Bar with a subscription – Offer Ends This Week!

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

US Major Indexes Retest Critical Price Channel Resistance

News, again, drives the US stock market and major indexes higher as optimism of a US/China trade agreement floods the news wires.  As we’ve been suggesting, the global markets continue to be news-driven and are seeking any positive news related to easing trade tensions and capital markets.  We believe any US/China trade deal would be received as very positive news by the global capital markets – yet we understand the process of achieving the components of the “deal” would likely still be 6 to 24 months away.

Still, with the strength of the US economy and the potential that some deal could be reached before the end of 2019 setting positive expectations, the US stock market and major indexes rallied last Thursday and Friday (October 10 and 11).  As the long holiday weekend sets up with no trading on Monday, it will be interesting to see what is potentially resolved between President Trump and the Chinese before the markets start to react on Sunday and Monday nights. Make sure up opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.

Our research team wanted to highlight some very key elements related to technical price theory and technical analysis.  These weekly charts highlight what we believe is “key resistance” in the US major indexes and share our research team’s concern that the markets may be reacting to news more than relying on fundamental economic and earnings valuations.  In past articles, we’ve highlighted how a “capital shift” is continuing to take place where foreign capital is actively seeking safety and security for future returns.  This leads to a shift in how capital is being deployed throughout the globe.

The current price channels in these Weekly charts highlight two key facets of the current market setup.  Either the US stock market will attempt to rally above this lower yellow price channel and attempt to regain strength between the two yellow price channels, or it will fail near the current price level and attempt to identify new support somewhere below the current price rotation ranges.

Just a few days ago, we posted this research article to alert traders of the Pennant/Flag formation that is setting up in the US markets …

October 7, 2019: US STOCK MARKETS TRADE SIDEWAYS – WAITING ON NEWS/GUIDANCE

NASDAQ WEEKLY CHART

With the holiday weekend upon us, we believe the news and economic data will continue to drive the market’s future moves and that volatility will continue to increase.

This Weekly ES chart highlights a similar setup, yet one key fact must be understood.  Price has already fallen away from the lower YELLOW price channel level and established a “lower high” price rotation recently.  Any price rally failure near this level may prompt a very big downside move.  The price must continue to rally above 3100 is price makes any attempt at further gains.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

We believe skilled technical traders have already digested and are well aware of the risks that are present in the current market environment.  We’ve been urging our followers to stay mostly in cash and to consider very strategic, expertly timed, investments when price trends are relatively secure.

This is not a speculative market any longer – this is a very volatile and uncertain market that is currently resting as major resistance levels.  Don’t get overly aggressive at this point.  It is better for the markets to tell us what it wants to do.  Lower risk, lower chance of disaster and live to trade another day – these should be hammered into the heads of traders at this stage of the markets.

Our morning coffee video analysis recap is the one thing… that single investment that’s going to turn into the greatest investment you’ve ever made for your trading.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Be sure to ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. My simple technical trading strategy using ETFs will allow you to follow the markets closely and trade with it so you never get caught on the wrong side of the market with big losses.

Chris Vermeulen
Subscribe Today – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.  Visit our web site to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

Silver Will Pause Before Going Higher

Silver will likely find resistance near $15.60 and move slightly lower before another upside price leg takes place.  Both gold and silver have begun incredible price rallies over the past 10+ days and we believe this is just the start of a much bigger price trend.

We believe Silver, to be one of the absolute best potential trades and investment. It will likely pause just below $15.75, near the First Resistance level, rotate a bit lower (possibly towards $15.15), then attempt another rally towards the $16.50 level.

Daily Silver Chart Analysis

The $15.60 to $15.75 resistance level can be seen on this chart by our RED highlighted price peaks. Additionally, the upper RESISTANCE ZONE between $16.15 and $16.78 is a big range that has historically been a key price channel.

My cycle and trend trading indicators are suggesting this move is far from over, yet we believe this move upward will happen in advancement legs and this first leg is nearing exhaustion.  This is why we are issuing this warning to all investors right now.  We believe a downward price rotation, a stalling price pattern, will set up where a technical trader will be able to acquire silver below $15.25 again very soon.  The next leg higher may start fairly quickly as we don’t expect this rotation to extend out for many weeks.

See Our Previous Silver Breakout Prediction Call on June 7th

Monthly Silver Chart

This Monthly Silver chart with our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system suggests upside targets of $17.00 (CYAN), $17.65 (GREEN), and $18.50 (DARK RED).  Our RESISTANCE ZONE level on the chart, above, aligns perfectly with these objectives because the price would first have to rally into the RESISTANCE ZONE and break through this level to push to any higher target levels.

Therefore, we believe this upside price move won’t run into any solid resistance until reaching above the $16.30 level and possibly as high as the $16.75 to $17.00 level.  At that point, the price of Silver should find real resistance, stall, and set up for the next breakout move higher.

At this point, if you have not been following our research and analysis of the precious metals sector and already positioned your trades for this move, you should get another chance to set up some long trades as this downside price rotation takes place.  Remember, wait for silver to fall close to or below $15.25 before targeting your new trade entry.  This bottom in silver may only last for a few short trading periods, so when it happens, be ready with your orders.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

The next upside leg in Silver should rally for a total of about +6% to +10% targeting the $16.25 to $17.00 price level – the RESISTANCE ZONE.  After that price level is reached and price consolidates to likely form another momentum base, another upside price leg should push the price of Silver towards our Monthly Fibonacci price targets – somewhere towards $18.00 to $18.50 before stalling again. !

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these super cycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I urge you visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Transportation Sector Is Testing Resistance

The DOW Transportation Index continues to test resistance near $10,050 as earnings drive the NQ well past historical all-time highs.  Our interest in the Transportation Index is because it acts as a fundamental indicator for the US and global economies in terms of future transportation/shipping expectations.  When the Transportation Index rises, it is a good sign that business and consumers have faith in the future economy and the continued demand for goods to be supplied to retailers and distribution centers.

The fact that the TRAN is back to near December 2018 highs means we have reached an expected economic expansion level that equals that level just before Christmas 2018.  A continued rally would push expectations even higher going into the Summer months.  With earnings hitting the market hard today driving a strong rally in almost all the major US stock indexes, we are surprised that the TRAN did not move a bit higher on the news.

Should the resistance level near $11,050 continue to operate as a ceiling for the TRAN, we’ll know soon enough as price should begin to move back below $11,000 and possibly attempt to retest $10,800.  A key Fibonacci trigger level currently rests near $10,800 that would indicate a potential for a new bearish trend if this level is broken.

This Weekly TRAN chart, below, highlights just how important the current resistance level really is.  This $11,050 level actually plays a key role in the 2018 price rotation and is the key resistance level for the December 2018 rotation peak.

As we’ve continually suggested, Fibonacci price theory suggests that price must always attempt to establish new price highs or new price lows.  If this new price high, above the $11,050 fails, then price should attempt to rotate lower and attempt to break the $10,000 low level created in early April 2019.

We suggest traders take a very cautious long-biased stance in the markets right now.  Weakness could come out of the shadows fairly quickly as earnings hit.  The Iran Oil news hit the markets quickly on Monday.  We could wake up to some dire earnings news this week that could send the markets lower and push some of these resistance levels into a topping formation.

Additionally, as you look at this Weekly chart, pay attention to the fact that we could be setting up a Right Shoulder of a Head-n-Shoulders pattern if new all-time highs are not reached.  There are many ways to attempt to read this chart and the TRAN should lead the markets if a price move does breakout.

Our research says we should continue to see an upward price bias for at least another 10~35+ days before any real sign of weakness shows up.  We are still urging traders to take a very cautious approach to their trading until we see the TRAN break to new highs.  We feel it is wise to trade this area very cautiously over the next 30+ days.

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Chris Vermeulen