Posts

Could This Be a “Suckers” Rally?

Everyone I know who is not involved in the stock market or has little knowledge about it is calling me and asking what stocks, indexes, and commodities to buy because everything is so cheap and dividends are juicy again.

Just look at the market sentiment chart, and price cycles that the stock market goes through, and listen to my talk below while reviewing these to images. It’s not rocket science, but the lack of education on the financial markets coupled with the force of greed to make money and miss out on the next big bull market has everyone getting suckered into this dead-cat bounce, also known as a bear trap, bear market rally.

LISTEN TO MY TALK – CLICK HERE

If you want to see something else really exciting/nerve-wracking/ and real check out this post on the Stock Market Top.

A subscriber to my market video analysis and ETF trading newsletter said it perfectly:

“Always intrigues me how many amateur surfers get to the north shore beaches in Hawaii, take one look at monster waves and conclude it’s way too dangerous. Yet the amateur trader looks at treacherous markets like these and wants to dive right in!!” Richard P.

I have to toot my own horn here a little because subscribers and I had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark for our accounts. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is going to be an incredible year for skilled traders.  Don’t miss all the incredible moves and trade setups.

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts. These simple to follow ETF swing trades have our trading accounts sitting at new high water marks yet again this week, not many traders can say that this year. Visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.

We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Downside Opportunities Everywhere – Watch These Symbols

As the global markets enter the Q1 earnings season where a host of new data and expectations will flood the markets over the next 30+ days, skilled traders should put these three symbols on their watch-list over the next few days and weeks.

We’ve been writing about how we believe the downside risks within the US and global stock markets are still very real.  Many industry analysts believe the bottom has set up in the US stock market already – we don’t believe this is the case.  Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system continues to suggest a deeper downside move is in the works and we believe this potential retest of recent lows will setup another incredible opportunity for skilled traders.

Recently, we’ve posted a number of research articles to help you understand what is really taking place in the global markets.  The COVID-19 virus has set-off a consumer demand contraction event that will ripple across all sectors of the global economy.  There is no other way to interpret the data right now – if consumers don’t come back into the economy at levels near the late 2019 engagement levels, then the global economy will continue to contract.  Consumers make up over 85% of GDP values.

HERE ARE SOME OF OUR MOST RECENT ARTICLES TO ASSIST YOU…

Now, onto the three symbols setting up an incredible upside opportunity if the global markets rotate lower as our predictive modeling is suggesting…

FAZ – DIREXON INVERSE FINANCIAL SECTOR ETF

The first symbol is FAZ.  This ETF moves higher as the financial sector stocks move lower.  These include banks, financial institutions, and other financial services companies.  The reason we believe FAZ has a potential to move higher is that we believe the lack of consumer engagement in retail, restaurants, leisure shopping and other types of normal spending activities will put incredible pressure on business loans, consumer loans, commercial and residential real estate, business credit lines and many other aspects of the financial sector.  Simply put, it would be foolish to think that some level of default and/or extended risks would not come from any type of consumer disengagement from the economy.  Again, consumers make up over 85% of the total GDP levels.  If we take away even 20% to 30% of these consumers, we could see a dramatic collapse in certain sectors of the economy.

Thus, we believe the Financial sector is poised for another downside price move which will prompt a rise in FAZ from current levels to near $50~$60.  This represents 65% to 85%+ upside potential.

Before we continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

MZZ – PROSHARES ULTRASHORT MIDCAP 400 ETF.

The MidCap sector is uniquely vulnerable to any economic contraction related to consumer activity.  Many of the Midcap companies are uniquely consumer-based and/or consumer sector related.  Thus, should another market downtrend attempt to retest recent lows or attempt to set up a deeper price bottom, the Midcap 400 ETF may see an incredible upside price move.  Upside price targets are near $29 to $30 – which is 55% to 65% higher than the current price level. Ultimately, any deeper price lows set up because of a deeper price bottom setting up in the US and global markets could push MZZ well above $35.

QID – PROSHARES ULTRASHORT QQQ ETF

The last symbol we believe could see a big upside move related to increased future risk in the US and global markets is QID – the NASDAQ Inverted ETF.  The reason we believe risks in the US and global major markets may bleed over into this ETF is that the NASDAQ has been a major component of US & foreign investment over the past 24+ months.  Global investors continue to believe that technology firms will out-perform the general market – thus, more capital has poured into this sector of the market over the past 20+ months than many other sectors.

This capital influx also creates an opportunity for contrarian traders if the markets fail to recover – as many people believe will happen.  This capital that has recently poured into the NASDAQ may become “at-risk” if another deeper downside price move takes place.  Investors may have hard stops in place and forced selling may take place if the markets attempt to establish a deeper price bottom in the near future.

Conservatively, an upside price move in QID to levels near $27 (45%) is the first Fibonacci target. Further upside target levels near $30.50, $42.50 and $44.25 also exist. Of course, these higher target levels would be the result of a much deeper global market collapse where a deeper bottom in price is established.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

We believe these three symbols present very real opportunities for skilled technical traders.  Wait for the right setup and confirmation before jumping into these trades. If the US and global markets begin to move lower on poor earnings or economic data, jump over to these charts to see how they are reacting to price weakness.  There is a very real opportunity for 20~40+% profits in each of these charts with the right setup in place.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is going to be an incredible year for skilled traders.  Don’t miss all the incredible moves and trade setups.

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts. These simple to follow ETF swing trades have our trading accounts sitting at new high water marks yet again this week, not many traders can say that this year. Visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.

We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Finding the Great Opportunities in Tumultuous Markets

WATCH VIDEO BELOW

Chris discusses his unique trading methodology, which focuses primarily on price and not fundamentals. After studying the markets extensively, he found what works best for him is a very systematic logical process that ignores the news. Today he builds trading systems that follow this methodology.

Their long-term supercycle statistical analysis was indicating a severe downturn in the market in Q1 2020. Several cycles were coming together, along with various market sentiment indicators. Their software compares historical trends to the present, which can reveal the direction of the market.

They focus on utilities, commodities, and study where big money is flowing. This year they were able to completely side-step this market crash. Chris says, “Building out these systems makes life so much easier. It’s like the dashboard of an aircraft you can see all the gauges that tell you what is going on.”

Equities are in a dead-cat bounce, and there is further downside. He feels the stock market has the potential to go another 20% to 30% lower than the recent March lows. There are many opportunities in this market, but it’s not good for people as there will be blood in the streets.

If we get mass panic selling again, people will liquidate everything once more, clobbering everything again. Be careful trying to pick a bottom in a dead market. He recommends, “Leave silver and miners until they begin to break-out… They are not there yet.”

He expects there will be opportunities in oil long-term but cautions that waiting on the news can be tricky. Oil is still in a downtrend and may not have reached the bottom yet.

Talking Points From This Week’s Episode
• Trading methodologies and focusing on price.
• Supercycles and predicting downtrends.
• Bond performance in bear markets.
• Why equities have further to drop.
• Long-term opportunities with oil.

Chris Vermeulen has been involved in the markets since 1997 and is the CEO & Founder of Technical Traders Ltd. He is an internationally recognized technical analyst, trader, and author.

Years of research, trading, and helping individual traders around the world has taught him that many traders have great trading ideas, but they lack one thing. They struggle to execute trades systematically for consistent results. Chris helps educate traders, and his mission is to help his clients boost their trading performance while reducing market exposure and portfolio volatility.

He has also been on the cover of AmalgaTrader Magazine and featured in Futures Magazine, Gold-Eagle, Safe Haven, The Street, Kitco, Financial Sense, Dick Davis Investment Digest, and dozens of other financial websites.

Reality Check on Trading Equities & Precious Metals

As you may or may not know, the markets have a way of making it extremely difficult to trade in general almost all of the time if you do not have a trading plan.

One of the ways the market likes to pull money from traders is through morning opening gaps. For example, yesterday, the inflow of emails about gold, silver, and gold miners was insane. I keep trying to keep everyone in check with how to handle high-risk, high uncertainty, and volatile times, which, for our case right now, is a cash position for a few more days.

Unfortunately, big moves in price trigger emotions with some of you. It causes you to start trading just because you think you need to trade, which can be for many different reasons I won’t get into here. You should know my stance by now, which is cash is a position, and retaining our capital is more important than trading some times.

I know for a fact that all successful traders have a detailed trading plan, they can control their emotions, are logical, and they wait for opportunities vs. jumping at anything that moves more than normal.

Below is our portfolio equity curve, which we hit an all-time new high just days after the stock market started its crash. Maybe if you see what your portfolio growth curve would look like if you followed my trades, you will finally see the value in CASH.

I don’t trade a lot, and we are in cash when we don’t have any positions. Other times we will have 2 or 4 positions open, but it all depends on the market and volatility. You want trading to be simple, boring, and profitable, trust me on this.

PORTFOLIO GROWTH CHART

AVERAGE PORTFOLIO RESULTS THIS YEAR

Ok, enough of that rant, BACK TO MORING PRICE GAPS!
The stock market loves to do most of the day’s price range and profit potential in a way the average trader is not able to catch the move. Even more so, it is trying to get traders the worst entry or exit price.

New members over time will see and understand this when I talk about these gaps getting faded in my morning videos, which I will explain in a minute. For now, let’s take a look at the price of gold and the market sentiment from yesterday.

Yesterday gold traders were acting like a school of piranha’s. A big one day pop in price is like a drop of blood in the water, and it created a feeding frenzy. There was so much momentum going into the closing bell that the market makers will take advantage of this and walk the price up in pre-market trading the next day and try to reach the next resistance level before the opening bell.

This is what happened to gold, and miners this morning.  Market makers know there are still a ton of gold and miner stock buyers out there who are going to BUY as soon as the market opens, so what happens?

The general public pays the high price, way up at resistance, and the market makers get to sell any access shares they have for a huge profit. After that, the price generally fades (falls) back down, and the majority of buyers that day just bought at the high because of pure emotions and a lack of understanding. This happens for gaps to the downside as well in a similar manner.

Now, keep in mind, this is a very short term price action. The gap may fade down over the rest of the session or a few days, but it does not mean the uptrend is the price is finished longer term.

My point is, the market has a way to get you a bad fill MOST of the time if you do not understand how and why the price moves the way it does. Even if you know all this, sometimes we have no choice to pay the price depending on the trade setup if we want to get into a position. I just wanted to share this small tidbit on how the market moves with price gaps because almost all price gaps fill, fade back down to the previous days high for the stock indexes. Commodities gaps don’t always fill, because they are a very different asset class than equities.

MY CURRENT OUTLOOK AND THINKING FOR GOLD, SILVER, AND MINERS?

In short, gold is the only one in a bull market, and it’s been the definite leader time and time again for the past year almost. It remains in a bull market, and all the money printing/QE, and zero interest rate things are very bullish on metals long term. I like gold a lot, have for a while. I think it’s going higher still as I pointed out in yesterday’s afternoon video, $2600 is my primary target long term. If you didn’t watch yesterdays afternoon video be sure to do so here:

Members video: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/memberships/wbn/monday-afternoon-video-update/

As for gold miners and silver, well today is the same story as yesterday, everyone wants to own them and thinks they are missing the train. How you should see these charts and how to best trade them I tell you in yesterday’s afternoon video.

Trading now, in my opinion, is pure speculation and emotionally driven. Sure, you could be right, and this could be the bottom, but as technical traders using rules, logic, and a proven strategy, we are not cowboys trying to pick a bottom to be early. A broken clock is right two times a day. You may get lucky, but because bottom picking without any technical confirmation is a sucker’s (gamblers) game in the long run.

As our portfolio graph above speaks for its self, in that we do not need to catch every move, in fact, we just need to catch a couple of low-risk trades and slowly build our capital.  I was told by one of my mentor traders years ago, once trading becomes slow and boring to you, that’s when you finally understand the market and have a proven trading strategy.

I hope you find this helpful, and if you want this type of info every day, plus my videos, and winning trading strategy, become a member right now!

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
www.TheTechnicalTrader.com