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Real Estate Stats Show Big Wave Of Refinancing Is Coming

Current data released for the May Real Estate and Consumer Spending activity suggests a wave of refinancing is taking place – and not much else.  Pending home sales slipped to 69.  That level is 7.4 points below the lowest level in 2010 – at the height of the 2008-09 credit crisis that collapsed the global Real Estate values.  How big is this new low level in Pending home sales?  It’s HUGE.

It suggests the rate of sales in the US for Real Estate has collapsed beyond levels that were seen at the worst possible time in recent history (July 2010).  In fact, over the past 20 years, there has never been a time when the pending home sales index has collapsed below 74 to 75 – until today.

2008-2011 PENDING HOME SALES DATA

The sudden collapse of Pending Home Sales as a result of the COVID-19 virus event should not have come as any surprise to skilled technical investors.  Don’t misread this data – there are still homes selling in the US market, buyers are just being far more selective and discerning in regards to their purchases and timing.

Anyone who understands Supply and Demand theory knows that when price levels are perceived to be excessive, consumers slow their purchases considerably as the supply is determined to be overvalued in price.  This slowing of purchasing results in a supply glut that will eventually push price levels lower (attempting to attract more buyers).

It is this process of shifting perceptions in the Supply and Demand relationship that is likely taking place right now in the Real Estate market.  Low rates in combination with the COVID-19 virus are not prompting more sales of Real Estate right now.  Consumers simply don’t have the confidence (perception) that future price appreciation in Real Estate will be substantially based on the current market environment.  Thus, the perception of the value of Real Estate changes from optimism to caution.

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2020 PENDING HOME SALES DATA

Source: https://www.investing.com

A large portion of the issue related to Real Estate is consumer confidence in their ability to earn real incomes and the stability of employment and opportunity related to their future.  The COVID-19 virus event has really disrupted a large portion of the US consumer market as well as the future expectations of consumers and spending habits.  This disruption is likely to take at least 12 to 24+ months to settle before any real bottom is likely to take place on a broad scale.

Real consumer spending has collapsed in April and May 2020.  Even though the US government has spent trillions attempting to support the US economy, the continued shutdown of cities and states has cut consumers’ jobs, incomes, and the need to go out and spend like normal.  Even though they may be saving some extra money throughout this time, the destruction to local and state economies/revenues is devastating.

MAY 2020 REAL CONSUMER SPENDING DATA

Source: https://www.investing.com

The one aspect of the low-interest rates that we do expect to peak soon is the refinance market.  Stronger homeowners with solid income opportunities are able to refinance at lower rates now and that activity seems to be spiking.  This is very similar to what happened in 2009-2011 where stronger consumers were able to take advantage of very low-interest rates and were able to shed the 5 to 7%+ mortgages and refinance at much lower levels.  Once these transactions peak, these homeowners will likely be settled in their homes for another 5 to 10+ years with new lower rates (unless something disrupts their financial/income situation).

MAY 2020 MORTGAGE REFINANCE INDEX

Source: https://www.investing.com

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Combining all of this data into a consensus analysis for technical traders, we come to the conclusion that a wave of refinancing has likely peaked and that consumers are now in the early stage of attempting to understand what the recovery will look like going forward over the next 6 to 12+ months.  Add into the mix that we have a US Presidential election taking place in 6 months and the potential policy and tax changes that could take place as a result of this election and we have a real “consumer abyss” setting up over the next 6+ months.

With the Fed doing all they can to support the markets, the COVID-19 virus still causing shutdowns and other issues and the consumer waiting for some clear skies and positive expectations, the US and global economy could be stuck in a mode of greatly decreased consumer activity over the next 6 to 12+ months – which translates into a shift in perspective related to business creation, optimism, income/earnings and much more.  A dramatic shift in consumer expectations over a longer period of time could result in far more damaging longer-term issues for assets, state and local governments, and more.

Once the wave of refinancing is completed, we’ll have to see how the housing market data relates to increased consumer optimism.  At this point, we don’t believe anything is likely to change consumer attitudes until after the November 2020 elections.  Skilled technical traders should prepare for some really big price swings over the next 12+ months. This is the time for technical traders to shine with the setups and data that is being presented right now as well as in the future.

You don’t have to spend days or weeks trying to learn my system.  You don’t have to try to learn to make these decisions on your own or follow the markets 24/7 – I do that for you.  All you have to do is follow my research and trading signals and start benefiting from my research and trades.  My new mobile app makes it simple – download the app, sign in and everything is delivered to your phone, tablet, or desktop.

I offer trading signals for active traders, long-term investors, and wealth/asset managers.  Each of these services is driven by my own experience and my proprietary trading systems and modeling systems.  I have a small team of dedicated researchers and developers that do nothing but research and find trading signals for my members.  Our objective is to help you protect and grow your wealth.

Please take a moment to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com/tti to learn more about our passive long term investing signals, Also, get our swing trading signals here www.TheTechnicalTraders.com/ttt.  I can’t say it any better than this…  I want to help you create success while helping you protect and preserve your wealth – it’s that simple.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
Founder of Technical Trader Ltd.

Real Estate Showing Signs Of Collateral Damage – Part IV

This final part of our multi-part Real Estate article should help you understand what will likely transpire over the next 6+ months and how the unknown collateral damage may result in a “Double-Dip” price event taking place before August/September 2020.  In the first three parts of this article, we’ve attempted to highlight how the current COVID-19 virus event is different than any of the previous two crisis events.

We’ve also highlighted how consumer psychology will change over the next 12+ months as this event continues to unfold.  Most importantly, we attempted to highlight how the disruption in income, one of the biggest factors we should consider, for businesses, individuals, states, and governments will likely present a very real contraction event over the next 24+ months.

It is difficult to really explain how so many people fail to see what we are seeing in terms of our research.  Yes, the COVID-19 virus event will end at some point and the economy will begin to engage at growing rates.  Yet, the process of getting to that stage is likely to be full of unknown economic events over the next 24+ months.

Before we continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
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We’ve published articles suggesting our Super-Cycles and generational cycle research suggests we have entered a 10 to 20 year period of “unraveling and crisis processes” before a rebuilding phase can begin to take place.  If our research is correct, this unraveling and crisis phase will end near 2025~26.  This suggests we have another 5+ years of unknown collateral damage and unknown economic events

On February 24, 2020, we published this article which is very important because it warned our followers to prepare for a crisis event and to protect your portfolios with what to expect in the yield curve.

Our suggestion is to plan to set up your portfolio so you have sufficient cash in reserve in the event of an unexpected market decline.  We also suggest proper protection/hedge investments, such as precious metals and metals miner ETFs.

The reality is that mortgage delinquencies have already begun to skyrocket higher.  It is obvious to anyone paying attention that the lack of real income opportunities for individuals and businesses will translate into major economic collateral damage processes (crisis events) playing out over the next 12+ months. Depending on how the COVID-19 virus lingers throughout the world and the extent of the global shutdowns, we could be on the cusp of experiencing one of the biggest “revaluation events” in history.

This Bloomberg article summarizes our research and thinking nicely. Despite government support, we believe a massive revaluation event related to Real Estate and other assets is just starting to unfold.  Skilled technical traders will stay keenly aware of this potential event and position their portfolios to protect assets in the event of a sudden change in trend.

Price trends have just started to move lower based on this data from Realtor.com up to March 2020.  We believe the April and May data will show a substantial collapse in pricing levels – particularly in areas that continue to experience high COVID-19 issues.  This suggests California, Washington, New York, New Jersey, Florida, and other areas could experience a sustained price decline lasting more than 12to 24 months.

Florida Real Estate Price Trends

Washington Real Estate Price Trends

Watch as more populated areas (cities and larger regional areas) see a shift in consumer sentiment related to Real Estate price levels over the next 6+ months.  Once the consumers start shifting away from seeing Real Estate as an opportunity at any price and begin to watch the price levels drop, their psychology changes in terms of “when will the bottom happen?”.  Once this happens, the markets change into a Bear market trend for real estate as at-risk homeowners are placed under severe pricing pressure and markets continue to implode.

What this means for skilled technical traders is that opportunities will be endless over the next 12+ months to target real gains through skilled technical trades.  As capital shifts from one sector to another – avoiding risk and attempting to capitalize on the opportunity, skilled technical traders will be able to ride these trends and waves to create substantial gains.

Protect your portfolios now.  Don’t fall for the overly optimistic “follow the NQ higher” trade as risks are still excessive.  Wait for the right setups and determine how much risk you can afford to take on each trade. This is not the time to bet the farm on one big trade – wait for the right setups and wait for the collateral damage to play out.

It doesn’t matter what type of trader or investor you are – the move in Gold and the major global markets over the next 12+ months is going to be incredible.  Gold rallying to $2100, $3000 or higher means the US and global markets will continue to stay under some degree of pricing pressure throughout the next 12 to 24 months.  This means there are inherent risks in the markets that many traders are simply ignoring.

I keep pounding my fists on the table hoping people can see what I am trying to warn them about, which is the next major market crash, much worse than what we saw in March. See this article and video for a super easy to understand the scenario that is playing out as we speak.

If you want to learn more about the Super-Cycles and Generational Cycles that are taking place in the markets right now, please take a minute to review our Change Your Thinking – Change Your Future book detailing our research into these super-cycles.  It is almost impossible to believe that our researchers called this move back in March 2019 in our book and reports.

If you have been following me for a while, then you know my analysis and trades are the real deal. You also would know that I made over $1.9 million from the financial markets during the 2008 crash and recover into 2010. I have been semi-retired since the age of 27.  I continue to follow, predict, and trade the markets because its the ultimate business and my passion.

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During the March Market crash, the BEST position was cash for short term trades. EVERY asset fell in value (stocks, bonds, gold, commodities) two months ago. Only one asset rallied, guess what it was? The USD dollar (CASH), moving to USD cash, gained a whopping 11% while most indexes and sectors fell 35-80+%. all you had to do was close all positions in your portfolio, and you would have looked like a hero, and that’s what I did with my account and members of my swing trading newsletter.

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As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is going to be an incredible year for skilled traders.  Don’t miss all the incredible moves and trade setups.

Subscribers of my ETF trading newsletter had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over in February, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way with TLT bonds for a 20% gain. This week we closed out SPY ETF trade taking advantage of this bounce and entered a new trade with our account is at another all-time high value.

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts. These simple to follow ETF swing trades have our trading accounts sitting at new high water marks yet again this week, not many traders can say that this year. Visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.

We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Signs Of Long Term Devaluation Real Estate

Continuing our research into the Real Estate market and our expectations over the next 6+ months or longer, we want to point out the disconnect between the current US stock market rally and the forward expectations related to the real economy.  Our researchers believe the current data from Realtor.com as well as forward expectations suggest a major shift related to “at-risk” real estate (both commercial and residential).

Unlike the 2008-09 credit crisis, the COVID-19 virus event is quickly disrupting consumer engagement within the global economy and disrupting spending activities.  Spending is shifting to online, fast food, and technology services for those that still have an income.  For those that have lost their jobs, spending is centered around surviving the COVID-19 virus event and hoping to see new opportunities and jobs when things open back up.

The coronavirus-fueled economic downturn is hitting homeowners hard. And the worst may be yet to come.

Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free-market trend signals
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2008-09 REAL ESTATE PRICE COLLAPSE CHART

The biggest difference between 2008-09 and now is that the Real Estate sector is not the driving force behind the economic collapse – it is part of the collateral damage of the COVID-19 virus event related to failed consumer businesses, loss of jobs, disruption to the consumer economy and the destruction of income for many.  Yes, for a while, some people will be able to keep things together and “hold on” while hoping the economy comes back to life quickly.  Others won’t be so lucky.

The one aspect of all of this that people seem to fail to understand is the shift in consumer mentality related to the shifting economic environment.  Right now, consumers are dealing with the shock of job losses, the virus crisis itself and what the future US and global economy may look like.  Many people fail to understand that we really don’t know what the recovery process will become or when it will start.  Yes, we are making progress in trying to contain the COVID-19 virus, but the process of rebuilding the global economy to anywhere near the early 2020 levels is still many months away and full of potential collateral damage events.

MULTI-SECTOR PRICE TREND CHART (DAILY)

To help illustrate how the markets are reacting to the optimism of capital being poured into the global economy vs. the reality of the Consumer and Financial sectors, this chart highlights the SPY (BLUE) current price activity vs the NASDAQ 100 Financial Sector (GREEN) and the Consumer Discretionary sector (GOLD).  The SPY recently disconnected from a very close correlation to the other sectors near mid-April – about 2 weeks after the US Fed initiated the stimulus program.  The S&P, NASDAQ, and DOW Industrials have benefited from this disconnect by attracting new investments while the Consumer and Financial sectors have really started to come under moderate pricing pressure.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

We believe this disconnect is related to the perceived reality of certain investors vs. other types of investors.  Institutional traders may be pouring capital into the US major market indexes while more conservative traders are waiting out the “unknowns” before jumping into the global markets.  We believe the extended volatility will create waves of opportunity as capital rotates between sectors attempting to find new opportunities for quick gains.

We also believe the unknown collateral damage processes will present very real risks over the next 6+ months as the markets seek out a real bottom.

A recent MarketWatch.com article suggests a new mortgage crisis in inevitable given the disruption to the US economy and consumer’s ability to earn income and service debt levels:

Pay attention.  These recent rallies in the US major indexes may not be painting a very clear picture of the risks still present in the US economy.  It is almost like speculation is driving prices higher while economic data suggest major collateral damage is still unknown.  We suggest reviewing this research article for more details:

If you want to improve your accuracy and opportunities for success, then we urge you to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how you can enjoy our research and our members-only trading triggers (see the first chart in this article).  If you are managing your retirement account or 401k, then we urge you to visit www.TheTechnicalInvestor.com to learn how to protect your assets and grow your wealth using our proprietary longer-term modeling systems.  Our goal is to help you find and create success – not to confuse you.

In closing, we would like to suggest that the next 5+ years are going to be incredible opportunities for skilled traders.  Remember, we’ve already mapped out price trends 10+ years into the future that we expect based on our advanced predictive modeling tools.  If our analysis is correct, skilled traders will be able to make a small fortune trading these trends and Metals will skyrocket.  The only way you’ll know which trades to take or not is to become a member.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Virus Curve, Market Crash, and Mortgage Massacre

In this last segment of our multi-part research article, we want to highlight our expectations of the Covid-19 virus event and how the next 6+ months of global market activity may play out.  We’ve covered some of the data points we believe are important and we’ve touched on the collateral damage that may be unknown at this time.  Today, we’ll try to put the bigger picture together for investors to help you understand what we believe may be the 12+ month outcome.

As the global central banks and US Fed attempt to come to the rescue, the reality is that monetary policy works better when consumers are able to actually go out and engage in spending and economic activity.  If the Covid-19 virus event contracts global consumer activity, as it has recently, for an extended period of time (4 to 6+ months), then we have a real issue with how QE efforts and consumer activity translate into any real recovery attempt.

The real risks to the global markets is an extended risk that the Covid-19 virus creates a contracting economic environment for many months/quarters and potentially fosters an environment where extensive collateral damage to corporations, consumer activity, credit/debt markets, and other massive financial risks boil over.

Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
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News is already starting to hit that QE is not helping the deteriorating situation in the Mortgage banking business.  Remember, this is the same segment of the financial industry that started the 2007-08 credit crisis event.  News that mortgage lenders and bankers are already starting to experience margin-calls and have attempted to contract their exposure to the risks in the markets (a bit late) are concerning.  This is a pretty big collateral damage risk for the global markets.

(Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mortgage-massacre-continues-mounting-margin-calls-spark-crisis-wall-street )

Additionally, as we expected, applications for new mortgages have collapsed to their lowest level since 2009.  Until consumers feel confident in their ability to get out, engage in real economic growth and take on home loans they know are relatively secure in their ability to repay – there is going to be a continued market contraction.  The next phase of this contraction is a price reduction, forced selling/foreclosures and a glut of assets waiting for a bottom.

“Home-purchase applications dropped by 14.6% while

refinancing applications plummeted 33.8%… “

(Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/mortgage-apps-crash-most-2009 )

I think the most important aspect of this global virus event is to remember that we will survive it (in some form) and we will live to rebuild after this event completes.  Yet, the reality is that we were not prepared for this event to happen and we don’t know the total scope of this Covid-19 virus event.  We simply don’t know how long it will take to remove the threat of the virus and for societies to reengage in normal economic activity – and that is the key to starting a real recovery.

(Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/no-country-has-exit-strategy-expert-warns-lockdowns-could-last-months-years )

Hong Kong has recently reported a “third wave” of Covid-19 infections.  I believe we should attempt to learn from places like Hong Kong, where news is moderately accurate and reported via social media and other resources.  If we want to learn what to expect in the US and how the process of containing this virus may play out, we need to start learning from other nations that are ahead of us in the curve.

It appears that any attempt to resume somewhat normal economic activities while the virus is still active spouts a new wave of infections.  This would suggest that the only way to attempt to reengage in any somewhat normal economic activity would be when a vaccine or true medical cure is in place to allow nations to attempt to eradicate the virus as these waves continue. (Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/third-wave-hong-kong-thought-it-had-a-handle-on-coronavirus-it-doesnt-2020-03-23 )

The price collapse in 2008-09 represented a -56% decline from top to bottom.  Currently, the S&P has fallen by just over 35%.  We don’t believe the bottom in the US stock market has setup just yet and we do believe there is a greater downside price risk ahead.  We don’t believe the housing market will be able to sustain any of the current price levels for much longer.  We believe the collateral damage of this event is just starting to be known and we believe a greater economic contraction is unfolding not only in the US but throughout the globe.

Skilled traders need to understand the total scope of this event.  We’ve attempted to highlight this risk in this article and in our “Crunching Numbers” research article (PART III).  An economic contraction, like the Covid-19 virus event, could contract global GDP by as much as 8 to 15% over an extended 16 to 36+ month span of time.  Are we concerned about the Real Estate market?  You Bet!  Are we concerned about global markets?  You Bet!  Are we prepared for this as traders? You Bet!  Are the central banks global nations prepared for this? We certainly hope so.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for short-term swing traders.

Visit my ETF Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Fed Too Late To Prevent A Housing Market Crash?

Real Estate is one of the biggest purchases anyone will make in their lifetime.  It can account for 30x to 300x one’s annual income and take over 30 years to pay off.  After you’re done paying for your property, now you have to keep paying to maintain it and to support the property taxes to keep it.  What has happened to the US Real Estate market since the 2008-09 global credit market collapse and is the US Fed behind the curve?

Case-Shiller Home Price Index

One of the most common indicators used to measure national housing affordability and price trend is the Case-Shiller Home Price Index.  In this chart, we are displaying the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index – including all markets in the US.  It is fairly easy to see that in last 2016, on a national level, the Case-Shiller index had reached the 2006 peak level.  After that, the new Trump economy pushed it even higher where we now near 210.  This is a very uncommon level for this index and because we are in uncharted territory with this 210 ranking, it should concern everyone that a reversion maybe somewhere in our future.

Fed Funds Rate data from early 1990 till now

The question we’ve been asking our research team is “Is the US Fed behind the curve in the markets and how will that translate into the US/Global equity markets?” When we consider the recent Fed rate increases (starting in 2016), our research team compared these levels to a modeling system we build back in 2013.  This modeling system suggests what the US Fed should have been doing based on certain GDP, Population and other factors.  The chart below is the Current Fed Funds Rate data from early 1990 till now.  The rise in valuation on the Case-Shiller index can almost be directly correlated to the amount of money available in the global markets and the US Fed rate levels.  More money and lower interest rates mean everyone was stampeding into housing expecting it to increase in value (which it did).  But what is next with the US Fed turning cautious recently?

US 30 Year Mortgage Rate

The US 30 Year Mortgage Rate has continued to rotate between 3.5% and 5% (on average).  We all know these rates vary depending on the borrower’s credit rating and other factors. Yet we believe any rates above 4% (on average) are dangerous for the markets and once lenders start to tighten requirements for loans while sellers start to aggressively decrease their asking price in order to attract buyers, we could see a massive shift in the market within a matter of months, not years.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

The global markets are setting up for some type of event.  Capital is being pulled out of the markets as investors/traders wait to see what happens with the US/China trade issues, the EU as well as the US Presidential election in November 2020.  Many economists and researchers believe a recession is fast approaching and are waiting for any signs that it is starting. Are the turmoils setting up in the global stock market about to fracture into the global real estate market as well?  As investors and consumers engage in risk aversion processes, how will that result in continued economic activity in certain sectors of the global market?  Could it be that we are about to experience an economic contraction/reversion event that many analysts have failed to comprehend? In part II of this article, we’ll show you our US Fed proprietary modeling system’s data and show you why we believe something big is going to unfold over the next 3 to 5+ years.  We’ll also highlight some very interesting data regarding the US real estate market that you should be preparing for right now. Real Estate has already run through the price advance cycle and the price maturity cycle.  There is really only one cycle left to unfold at this point – the “price revaluation cycle”.  This is where the opportunity lies with a select real estate ETF I am keeping my eye on. I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these super cycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly. I urge you to visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’. Chris Vermeulen www.TheTechnicalTraders.com