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TLT Trade of the Year and What Is Next!

We just closed out our TLT position, which opened up 20.07% from our entry price, amazing. Who said bonds are dull and boring? haha

Only three times since 2008 have I seen bonds rally more than 20% from a new swing trade entry. Each time the move was short-lived, and the price collapsed after it within a few weeks. My goal is not to try and time tops and bottoms for the best entry and exit level. That is a gambler/losing strategy. Sure it pays big if you luck out and nail the timing, but they are few and far between, and the losses from trying will eat up any previous gain.

What I do is follow the price using my proven technical trading experience and tools, which I have acquired since 1997 and then apply position management to limit risk. I then use my trading systems for statistical analysis, so I know the odds for trade are favorable to win and also to pinpoint profit taking levels just like today’s TLT position closure.

Sure, TLT could pop and rally another 5-10%, but its highly unlikely, and it’s fear/volatility driven, so any spike higher from here is likely to drop straight back down shortly after. We got the low-risk easy money portion of the trade, and we are back in cash while everyone today is freaking out and losing money and piling into bonds because of fear, which is likely a top for the price of bonds for a while.

The bottom line, we avoided the stock market crash. We will not be trading inverse ETFs on the stock market until we enter a bear market. Until then, we avoid market corrections by moving to cash, then into bonds just like we have done with TLT. The SP500 is down 14% from the high a few weeks ago, and our TLT bond position is up 20% as of today.

We also made some good money on GDXJ for those who follow our trading strategy and position management. The last couple of weeks has been a tremendous learning experience, in my opinion. The recent price action amplifies how critical position management is (targets, stops) are for our long term trading success. No one knows where the price will ultimately move to or reverse, but through the use of technical analysis and our trading systems, we can consistently pull money out of the market each year.

Yes, we will have small losing trades from time to time like SSO, and UNG but when we do take a loss, they don’t cause much damage to our overall account because of our position sizing and stop levels. I was once told by my trading mentor in 2001 that you should be proud of yourself for taking a loss.

Taking a loss (closing a losing trade) means you are following rules, managing risk, and that you can accept your timing for the trade was wrong. That has stuck with me and pops into my head every time I have to bite the bullet and close out a losing trade.

The stock market is down 9.5% for the year as of today, our account is positive and making money, not many can say that right now. The Power of Technical Analysis!

Remember, successful trading is not about having a bunch of positions you have open, and thinking you always need to own something. It’s about limiting/avoided risk when the odds are unfavorable, and getting back into the market when they do become favorable. Cash is a position and sometimes its the best and only position to be in like right now.

Thanks, everyone, for the kind and uplifting emails, it really is amazing to navigate the market like this with all of you.

HAPPY MEMBERS MAKING MONEY!

Hi Chris, Many thanks for your sterling work. The beauty of your work is that you cover all asset classes to identify setups. One key lesson we learnt is to trust the bond market more than the equities market when the trend between the two asset classes diverges. 
Regards, Yusuf

Hi Chris,
I just wanted to send a quick note to tell you how impressed I am with your service and your trading system.  I’ve followed/subscribed to several folks over the past several years and have never seen anything like what you provide. Your timely and accurate technical analysis of the major markets is incredible and perfectly aligns with my preferred swing trading approach. My favorite part of the day is watching (and learning from) your morning videos. And to know that my account is steadily increasing in the face of utter market panic is invaluable.

Thanks so much for all you do!
Ryan M.

If you want to become part of an exquisite trading newsletter where you can learn to reach the charts, spot trades, profit targets, stops, and be force-fed winning trades like this TLT trade, and our GDXJ trade then join my Wealth Building Trading Newsletter Today!

Click Here: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/#pricing  

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
Technical Traders Ltd.

Inverse Energy ETF Nearing Profit Taking – Could Rally Further

Following up on an exciting article we shared with friends and followers on January 17, 2020, it appears ERY has reached the first stage for profit taking with a fairly strong potential we may see this rally continue even higher.  Please review the following repost of our original research and analysis of ERY back in early January.

January 17, 2020: ENERGY CONTINUES BASING SETUP – BREAKOUT EXPECTED NEAR JANUARY 24TH

ERY BEAR ENERGY ETF – WEEKLY CHART

At the time we authored this ERY article, our team of dedicated researchers believed that Oil would retrace from recent highs near $65 and continue to move lower – targeting the low $50 to mid $40 price level.  Our expectations were that a move in ERY from near $39~$42 to an initial target level near $55~$57 would be an excellent opportunity if Oil broke lower.  You can see the CYAN Fibonacci projected target level that aligns with our original target price level on this chart below.

ERY BEAR ENERGY ETF – DAILY CHART

Currently, we believe this current target level has been successful and urge any friends and followers to pull at least 50% of your profits at this current level.  If you decide to allow the rest of your position to continue, stops should be moved to levels near or below $52.  We believe the continued upside potential for this trade is still valid with a secondary target above $67~$75.  Trail your stop with every new weekly high and look to start exiting this trade on any price tick above $67 or $72.

ERY BEAR ENERGY ETF – WEEKLY CHART

Some resistance may be seen between $56 and $61.  There are historical price peaks near these levels that may act as a price boundary throughout this rally.  Once the $64 to $65 level is breached, ERY should continue to rally higher is Oil and Natural Gas continue to weaken.  Remember, trail your protective stop higher with each new Weekly high.

We are pleased to deliver another incredible trade setup found by our team of dedicated researchers.  Nothing like finding a trade that rallied from $40.50 to 57.33 (+41%) and may continue much higher.

Please take a minute to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn about our dedicated services for skilled traders and how we can help you find and execute better trades.  2020 is certain to be filled with extreme volatility and price rotation.  You might as well take advantage of our research and services to create greater opportunities for profits and trades.

Chris Vermeulen
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

How To Use Price Cycles And Profit As A Swing Trader – SPX, Bonds, Gold, Nat Gas

News does drive certain market events and we understand how certain traders rely on news or interest rates to bias their positions and trades.  As technical analysis purists, so to say, we believe the price operates within pure constructs of price rotation theory, trend theory, technical indicator theory, and price cycles.  We’ve found that technical analysis distills many news items into pure technical trading signals that we can use to profit from market swings.

Price is the ultimate indicator in our view.  Price determines current trends, support/resistance levels/channels, past price peaks and troughs and much more.  When we apply our proprietary price modeling and price cycle tools, we can gain a very clear picture of what price may attempt to do in the near future and even as far as a few months into the future.  Price, as the ultimate indicator, truly is the mathematical core element of all future price activity, trends, and reversions. Before you continue reading make sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.

We have been using cycles since 2011 and have developed multiple proprietary price modeling tools over the past 5+ years that assist us in finding and timing great trades.  Most of what we have learned over the past 8+ years is refined into “experience and skill”.  When you follow the markets every day – every hour, for the past 8+ years and see various types of price and technical indicator setups and reactions, you learn to hone into certain setups that have proven to be highly accurate trading triggers.

Our research team had dedicated thousands of hours to develop the tremendous skills and experience to be able to produce accurate cycles, and to also interpret them, which is what we specialize in doing. Determining which cycles to trade may look simple, yet they are far from easy to trade without the setups and price rotation signals.

We use a blend of the top 4 active price cycles in the market which updates daily. This data allows us to know where future price is likely to move over the next few days and weeks.  Within this article, we’ll show you some of our proprietary price cycles and modeling tools to show you how we run some of our specialized trading tools.

SP500 DAILY CHART – PREDICTED PRICE MOVEMENT

This SPY chart highlights the short-term price cycle modeling system where you can see how price reacted in alignment with our proprietary cycle tool.  If you look into the future, you can see that our proprietary price cycle tool is predicting the SPY may cycle into a potential double-top type of formation before cycling lower approximately 8+ days into the future.  One thing to remember is these cycle levels do not predict price target levels.  Don’t look at this chart and the cycle tool lines as price objectives – they are just trending bias levels scaled from 0 to 100 – just like a SINE WAVE.  Ideally, in order to identify price targets, we must fall back to technical price theory and Fibonacci price theory in order to identify target price objectives for the top formation and the potential downside price trend in the future.

BONDS DAILY CHART – PREDICTED PRICE MOVEMENT

This BOND Daily chart highlights a different type of price cycle – a momentum base/bottom type of setup.  You can see from our proprietary cycle tool lines on the chart how price movement has aligned almost perfectly with the cycle forecast.  Also, please notice how the price has moved beyond cycle highs and lows at times.  This relates to the fact that we discussed above – that cycles do not predict price objectives.  On this chart, a longer-term momentum base/bottom setup appears to be forming over the next 8+ days where the Bonds may begin a new upside price trend after the base/bottom forms.  This would indicate that we should be looking for opportunities and price triggers that set up after the bottom has setup – not before.  If we time our entry properly, we may negate any real risk for a trade with Bonds.

GOLD MINERS DAILY CHART – PREDICTED PRICE MOVEMENT

This Daily GDXJ chart almost perfectly highlights how the cycles do not align with real price objectives.  Throughout most of this chart, you can see the cycle levels rotate higher and lower near the extremes while price rotated in a much more narrow range.  Still, pay attention to how our proprietary cycle tool nailed nearly every rotation in price.  The range of the cycle lines is indicative of the scale and scope of the total cycle event.  Bigger cycle ranges suggest deeper, more volatile price trending events.

Notice how the current cycle ranges are much more narrow than the previous cycle ranges?  This suggests the current price cycle event may be more muted and smaller in volatility than previous price cycle ranges.

Our proprietary price cycle tool is suggesting that GDXJ will rotate lower to setup a moderate-term price bottom before attempting to move higher over the next 8 to 10+ days.  The upside price cycle may be rather muted as well – possibly only targeting recent price peaks near $40~42.

NATURAL GAS DAILY CHART – PREDICTED PRICE MOVEMENT

As you can see our past cycle analysis has been extremely accurate. In, fact natural gas can provide some of the largest and quickest gains out of all asset classes we cover. In August we traded natural gas for a quick 24% profit, and in October we have already locked in 15% again.  Our remaining position in Natural Gas is up even more after this incredible upside move predicted by our cycle tool.

This chart presents a very good example of how our proprietary cycle tool can align with price perfectly at times.  In this example, the expected cycle ranges, which highlight the intensity and potential volatility of the price trends, aligned almost perfectly with the real price action.  Currently, the cycle tool is predicting a moderate price rotation in Natural Gas before a further upside price move hits.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these super-cycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Opportunities are all around us.  Using the right tools to identify the true technical cycles, price cycles, and trading setup can help to eliminate risks and hone into more profitable trades.  It is almost impossible to time market tops and bottoms accurately, yet, as you can see from our work above, we have tools that can help us see into the future and help to predict when major price peaks and valleys may form.  Using a tool like this to help you determine when the real opportunity exists and when to time your trades will only improve your market insights and trading results….

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Up over 24.16% in Gains this month and its only Aug 8th Sent Thursday, August 8, 2019

I hope this weeks sell-off and rally whipsaw didn’t catch you off guard? Subscribers of TheTechnicalTraders Wealth Building Newsletter pocketed a whopping 24.16% return this week with three positions (SDS, UGLD & SIL).
Anyways, on Wednesday I sent you a reminder that I will be adding my short term trading signal software signals to my newsletter like the ones listed above and once I add these I will be raising the newsletter price. My ETF Trading Newsletter is available with up to a 30% discount plus I am giving away a free silver or gold bars for select membership levels which could be worth a lot of money a year or two from now and pay for most of the newsletter. I just wanted to let you know this lower rate and offer will end soon so this will be your LAST CHANCE to get on board and test drive an ETF trading service that truly makes money for its subscribers and teaches you at the same time! Summer is coming to an end which means it’s time to prepare for a strong fourth quarter in trading. The Wealth Building ETF trading and education program has been navigating its members through the market with precision for many years.

In fact, we just broke the 100% return on our entire portfolio since Jan 2018.

The focus is on US-based exchange traded funds but if you live in Canada or overseas you can use our trades one similar ETFs for your own exchanges and make similar returns! In case you don’t know who I am, my name is Chris Vermeulen the founder and editor of the Wealth Building Newsletter to make navigating the financial market as easy as it gets. I provide simple low-risk ETF trading analysis sharing all of my trades ideas with the subscribers. You start the day knowing exactly what type of volatility to expect in the coming session and where the key support and resistance levels are for the key underlying asset type being the Dollar, Oil, Gold, Silver, Bonds and S&P 500. If you have a smaller trading account this is the perfect service for you because of the scalability which ETF’s provide. Be sure to check out my website www.TheTechnicalTraders.com because he has a killer offer to become an exclusive member before this Friday. As we head towards the fourth quarter I have a few great trade ideas queued up. Overall it looks like 2019 will continue to be another banner year for the newsletter!

JOIN NOW TO SAVE, START MAKING MONEY, AND LEARN TO TRADE!