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Adaptive Fibonacci Suggests A Deeper Bottom Will Setup

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system suggests a much deeper price move is in the works and the current price rally will likely end near resistance levels identified by the Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system.  We are posting this research post for friends and followers to help them understand the true structure of price and to allow them to prepare for what we believe will become a much deeper downside price move in the future.

Fibonacci Price Theory teaches us that price moves in waves within up and down price cycles.  The recent peak in price, near February 25, 2020, has resulted in a very deep -36% price collapse in the S&P 500 (ES) recently.  This downside move has been mostly straight down, excluding a brief retracement in early March.  The strength of this downside price move suggests a moderate upside price recovery will take place before the next downside leg sets up.

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S&P 500 WEEKLY CHART OF 2008-09 CREDIT CRISIS MARKET COLLAPSE

Throughout the 2008-09 Credit Crisis market collapse, prices staged multiple recovery attempts within the downward price trend.  The first, after the initial -20.88% selloff in late 2007, resulted in a +14.83% price recovery that lasted for over 15+ weeks.  The second recovery, near the end of July 2008, resulted in a +9.56% recovery after a nearly -17% price decline.  After this brief recovery in July 2008, the price collapsed by a massive -44% from August to November 2008.

DAILY S&P 500 CHART

This Daily ES chart highlights the first two levels of resistance at 2700 & 2870 that could stall the rally and prompt a downside price move in the future. Support is currently at 2450.  We believe the 2700 level will act as a soft ceiling in the ES where price may attempt to rally, briefly, above this level, which it did yesterday, then pull back and pause as selling pressure re-enters the market.  The 2870 level may act as a hard ceiling where price may attempt to reach this level, but immediately reverse back to the downside.

Overall, we believe continued selling as a result of forward global economic expectations is the most obvious outcome where a deeper price bottom will setup sometime later this spring or early summer.

WEEKLY S&P 500 CHART

This Weekly S&P 500 chart (ES) shows a possible outcome for price going forward if another downside move starts.  A new downside price move to levels near to, or just below, the 2015~16 low price range is not unreasonable. From this level, we believe a “Flag” formation will setup creating an extended price bottom pattern down at those extreme lows.  We believe this “Flag” formation will end near August~October 2020, just before the 2020 elections and prompt the beginning of a new upside price recovery in the US and global markets.

This is a large forward-looking projection and you may be rolling your eyes, but they are very possible. In fact, last year we predicted the months and price levels in which gold and oil would start new major trends, and we did this 8 months before they took place, similar to what we are proposing here.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

The rotation in price setup by this brief upside price move will set up a new Fibonacci downside and upside price target range.  We believe it is essential for price to continue this type of rotation as the eventual bottom sets up in the US and global markets.  We believe the true price bottom will happen only after the virus event has subsided and global economies begin to start functioning like normal again.

Currently, there is simply too much of a world-wide disruption to expect that the bottom has already set up near last year’s (2019) brief price lows.  The scale and scope of the current downside price collapse do not properly reflect the total scope of this global virus event yet – it is still a reactionary move in price that has yet to properly digest the total scope of the global economic disruptions. There is a chance for stronger bounce/rally in the next few weeks/months if the virus can start to be contained, and that will continue to mimic that of the 2000 tech bubble. Believe it or not, there is a big similarity to what happened then, to what is happening now in terms of price action and market sentiment. Read article and see these charts.

In other words, we believe more selling will be seen in the global markets and more economic contraction will take place until we are safely beyond this virus event.  The longer the global economic shutdown continues, the more likely we are to see a deeper price bottom in the future and the more likely we are to see more extensive economic collateral damage across the world. No matter which way the markets move we will follow and trade the price action and profit. That is the benefit of following price vs trying to trade prediction, fundamental data etc.

In Part II of this research article, we’ll dig deeper into the underlying components that support our research.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders.

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.

We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Silver Prepares For Next Leg Higher

Following up on some of our recent metals research, we wanted to alert our friends and followers to the incredible opportunity that still exists in Silver.  We’ve highlighted two of our more recent articles for reference and review, below.  Silver continues to be one of the most incredible opportunities for 2020 and Silver Miners (SIL) could explode to the upside as the price of Silver rallies to close the gap between the Gold to Silver ratio.

Our researchers believe Silver is currently undervalued, compared to Gold, by at least 240%.  Historically, the Gold to Silver ratio averages a 10+ year rotational range of between 63 to 67.  This means that through both peaks and troughs, ranging from the high 80s to mid-90s to the low 30s to mid-40s, on average the middle price range level for this ratio is near 65.  Currently, this Gold to Silver ratio is 88.4.

Gold is currently trading at $1590 – just below the recent peak near $1613.  We believe that Gold will continue to rally higher, breaking the $1613 level, and continue higher targeting the $1750 level over the next few months.  Eventually, within 2020, we believe Gold will continue to rally higher breaking the $2100 price level.

This continued upside price action in Gold, while Silver has really yet to see any massive upside price movement, continues to create a massive price disparity between Gold and Silver – which is highlighted in the Gold to Silver ratio.  As Gold rallies, Silver must begin to move dramatically higher in order to close this price disparity between the value of Gold to Silver.  Historically, we believe the rally in Silver will force the Gold to Silver Ratio to fall to near the 65 level.  This would represent a massive 70% to 120%+ rally in the price of silver – targeting $24.50 to 32.50.

GOLD AND SILVER RATIO WEEKLY CHART

If the Gold to Silver Ratio falls below the 65 level and targets lower ratios, as has happened in the past, then Silver may rally as high as $45 to $55 per ounce while Gold stays below $1800.  If Gold does rally above $2000, as we expect, the true potential for Silver experiencing a major price reversion event could be as high as $60+ per ounce.

Please take a minute to read some of our previous research posts regarding the metals markets here:

January 14, 2020: SILVER TRADERS BIG TREND ANALYSIS – PART II

December 30, 2019: METALS & MINERS PREPARE FOR AN EARLY 2020 LIFTOFF

DAILY PRICE OF SILVER CHART

This Daily Silver chart highlights what we believe will be the next move higher in Silver.  The next upside price advance should target the $21 to $23 level as Silver attempts to revalue compared to the price of Gold.  Near this $23 level, Silver should stall briefly before attempting to move much higher.  The reality is that once this revaluation event begins to take place in Silver, we believe it will prompt an extended price rally that could last well into 2023-2024.

PRICE OF SILVER WEEKLY CHART

This Weekly Silver chart highlights our research team’s expectations related to Silver over the next 6+ months.  At first, we believe the $21 to $23 level will become the target.  Then, a short period of price rotation will find support near $21 before another upside price leg pushes silver above $24.  Remember, if Gold continues to rally higher, these expectations could extend 5% to 10% in size and scale.

SILVER MINERS SECTOR ETF – WEEKLY CHART

Another key component of this move is the opportunity in Silver Miners.  This SIL Weekly chart highlights the real potential for a 20% to 30% upside price rally related to the expected price revaluation/reversion event we have been describing for Silver.  Miners are an excellent correlative component for skilled traders expecting a move like this in the metals market.

Learn how we can help you find and execute better trades and turn the extreme volatility into solid profits.  Read our research and see what our research team has been predicting over the past few months.  We dedicate our efforts to helping you find great trades and helping you protect your assets.

Join my ETF Trade Alert Newsletter – Wealth Building Newsletter if you like what you read here and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.  Visit our web site to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

How To Use Price Cycles And Profit As A Swing Trader – SPX, Bonds, Gold, Nat Gas

News does drive certain market events and we understand how certain traders rely on news or interest rates to bias their positions and trades.  As technical analysis purists, so to say, we believe the price operates within pure constructs of price rotation theory, trend theory, technical indicator theory, and price cycles.  We’ve found that technical analysis distills many news items into pure technical trading signals that we can use to profit from market swings.

Price is the ultimate indicator in our view.  Price determines current trends, support/resistance levels/channels, past price peaks and troughs and much more.  When we apply our proprietary price modeling and price cycle tools, we can gain a very clear picture of what price may attempt to do in the near future and even as far as a few months into the future.  Price, as the ultimate indicator, truly is the mathematical core element of all future price activity, trends, and reversions. Before you continue reading make sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.

We have been using cycles since 2011 and have developed multiple proprietary price modeling tools over the past 5+ years that assist us in finding and timing great trades.  Most of what we have learned over the past 8+ years is refined into “experience and skill”.  When you follow the markets every day – every hour, for the past 8+ years and see various types of price and technical indicator setups and reactions, you learn to hone into certain setups that have proven to be highly accurate trading triggers.

Our research team had dedicated thousands of hours to develop the tremendous skills and experience to be able to produce accurate cycles, and to also interpret them, which is what we specialize in doing. Determining which cycles to trade may look simple, yet they are far from easy to trade without the setups and price rotation signals.

We use a blend of the top 4 active price cycles in the market which updates daily. This data allows us to know where future price is likely to move over the next few days and weeks.  Within this article, we’ll show you some of our proprietary price cycles and modeling tools to show you how we run some of our specialized trading tools.

SP500 DAILY CHART – PREDICTED PRICE MOVEMENT

This SPY chart highlights the short-term price cycle modeling system where you can see how price reacted in alignment with our proprietary cycle tool.  If you look into the future, you can see that our proprietary price cycle tool is predicting the SPY may cycle into a potential double-top type of formation before cycling lower approximately 8+ days into the future.  One thing to remember is these cycle levels do not predict price target levels.  Don’t look at this chart and the cycle tool lines as price objectives – they are just trending bias levels scaled from 0 to 100 – just like a SINE WAVE.  Ideally, in order to identify price targets, we must fall back to technical price theory and Fibonacci price theory in order to identify target price objectives for the top formation and the potential downside price trend in the future.

BONDS DAILY CHART – PREDICTED PRICE MOVEMENT

This BOND Daily chart highlights a different type of price cycle – a momentum base/bottom type of setup.  You can see from our proprietary cycle tool lines on the chart how price movement has aligned almost perfectly with the cycle forecast.  Also, please notice how the price has moved beyond cycle highs and lows at times.  This relates to the fact that we discussed above – that cycles do not predict price objectives.  On this chart, a longer-term momentum base/bottom setup appears to be forming over the next 8+ days where the Bonds may begin a new upside price trend after the base/bottom forms.  This would indicate that we should be looking for opportunities and price triggers that set up after the bottom has setup – not before.  If we time our entry properly, we may negate any real risk for a trade with Bonds.

GOLD MINERS DAILY CHART – PREDICTED PRICE MOVEMENT

This Daily GDXJ chart almost perfectly highlights how the cycles do not align with real price objectives.  Throughout most of this chart, you can see the cycle levels rotate higher and lower near the extremes while price rotated in a much more narrow range.  Still, pay attention to how our proprietary cycle tool nailed nearly every rotation in price.  The range of the cycle lines is indicative of the scale and scope of the total cycle event.  Bigger cycle ranges suggest deeper, more volatile price trending events.

Notice how the current cycle ranges are much more narrow than the previous cycle ranges?  This suggests the current price cycle event may be more muted and smaller in volatility than previous price cycle ranges.

Our proprietary price cycle tool is suggesting that GDXJ will rotate lower to setup a moderate-term price bottom before attempting to move higher over the next 8 to 10+ days.  The upside price cycle may be rather muted as well – possibly only targeting recent price peaks near $40~42.

NATURAL GAS DAILY CHART – PREDICTED PRICE MOVEMENT

As you can see our past cycle analysis has been extremely accurate. In, fact natural gas can provide some of the largest and quickest gains out of all asset classes we cover. In August we traded natural gas for a quick 24% profit, and in October we have already locked in 15% again.  Our remaining position in Natural Gas is up even more after this incredible upside move predicted by our cycle tool.

This chart presents a very good example of how our proprietary cycle tool can align with price perfectly at times.  In this example, the expected cycle ranges, which highlight the intensity and potential volatility of the price trends, aligned almost perfectly with the real price action.  Currently, the cycle tool is predicting a moderate price rotation in Natural Gas before a further upside price move hits.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these super-cycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Opportunities are all around us.  Using the right tools to identify the true technical cycles, price cycles, and trading setup can help to eliminate risks and hone into more profitable trades.  It is almost impossible to time market tops and bottoms accurately, yet, as you can see from our work above, we have tools that can help us see into the future and help to predict when major price peaks and valleys may form.  Using a tool like this to help you determine when the real opportunity exists and when to time your trades will only improve your market insights and trading results….

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

US Major Indexes Retest Critical Price Channel Resistance

News, again, drives the US stock market and major indexes higher as optimism of a US/China trade agreement floods the news wires.  As we’ve been suggesting, the global markets continue to be news-driven and are seeking any positive news related to easing trade tensions and capital markets.  We believe any US/China trade deal would be received as very positive news by the global capital markets – yet we understand the process of achieving the components of the “deal” would likely still be 6 to 24 months away.

Still, with the strength of the US economy and the potential that some deal could be reached before the end of 2019 setting positive expectations, the US stock market and major indexes rallied last Thursday and Friday (October 10 and 11).  As the long holiday weekend sets up with no trading on Monday, it will be interesting to see what is potentially resolved between President Trump and the Chinese before the markets start to react on Sunday and Monday nights. Make sure up opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.

Our research team wanted to highlight some very key elements related to technical price theory and technical analysis.  These weekly charts highlight what we believe is “key resistance” in the US major indexes and share our research team’s concern that the markets may be reacting to news more than relying on fundamental economic and earnings valuations.  In past articles, we’ve highlighted how a “capital shift” is continuing to take place where foreign capital is actively seeking safety and security for future returns.  This leads to a shift in how capital is being deployed throughout the globe.

The current price channels in these Weekly charts highlight two key facets of the current market setup.  Either the US stock market will attempt to rally above this lower yellow price channel and attempt to regain strength between the two yellow price channels, or it will fail near the current price level and attempt to identify new support somewhere below the current price rotation ranges.

Just a few days ago, we posted this research article to alert traders of the Pennant/Flag formation that is setting up in the US markets …

October 7, 2019: US STOCK MARKETS TRADE SIDEWAYS – WAITING ON NEWS/GUIDANCE

NASDAQ WEEKLY CHART

With the holiday weekend upon us, we believe the news and economic data will continue to drive the market’s future moves and that volatility will continue to increase.

This Weekly ES chart highlights a similar setup, yet one key fact must be understood.  Price has already fallen away from the lower YELLOW price channel level and established a “lower high” price rotation recently.  Any price rally failure near this level may prompt a very big downside move.  The price must continue to rally above 3100 is price makes any attempt at further gains.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

We believe skilled technical traders have already digested and are well aware of the risks that are present in the current market environment.  We’ve been urging our followers to stay mostly in cash and to consider very strategic, expertly timed, investments when price trends are relatively secure.

This is not a speculative market any longer – this is a very volatile and uncertain market that is currently resting as major resistance levels.  Don’t get overly aggressive at this point.  It is better for the markets to tell us what it wants to do.  Lower risk, lower chance of disaster and live to trade another day – these should be hammered into the heads of traders at this stage of the markets.

Our morning coffee video analysis recap is the one thing… that single investment that’s going to turn into the greatest investment you’ve ever made for your trading.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Be sure to ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. My simple technical trading strategy using ETFs will allow you to follow the markets closely and trade with it so you never get caught on the wrong side of the market with big losses.

Chris Vermeulen
Subscribe Today – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.  Visit our web site to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

Natural Gas Reloads For Another Price Rally

As a technical trader, one has to really learn to appreciate when a trade “reloads” for another move higher.  Much like the Gold base/bottom in April 2019 below $1300 that we called back in October 2018.  When a trend confirms and we can see the potential for upside profits, but price performs a “deep pullback” withing that initial trend setup – it is almost like we’re dreaming.

After the downside rotation in Gold setup in April 2019, the next move higher pushed Gold prices up to $1550 from levels near $1275 – what a great move that was.  Now, imagine Natural Gas may give us another chance to get long below $2.30 with an upside target near $3.00 before mid-November?  Incredible – right?

Read our original research post here : https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/has-the-basing-setup-in-natural-gas-completed/

Here it is, folks.  After setting up a very deep price base in August 2019, Natural Gas has, again, moved back into the basing zone and our historical price research still suggests October and November will be strongly positive for Natural Gas.  We believe the upside potential in Natural Gas could target $3.00 fairly quickly – possibly before mid-November 2019.

THIS DATA IS QUOTED FROM OUR ORIGINAL RESEARCH POST…

“Our research tools suggest that September has a 65% probability of rallying more than 6x the historical range.  This would suggest a rally potential of more than $2 exists in September for Natural Gas.  Our tools also suggest that October has a 75% probability of rallying more than 3.2x the historical range.  This would suggest a potential rally of more than $1.20 in October. “

DAILY NATURAL GAS CHART

WEEKLY NATURAL GAS CHART

Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.

This Weekly Natural Gas chart highlights the “bump” in price that happened in September and how price has fallen back into the basing zone.  It is almost as if the market forgot what Natural Gas should be doing, historically, at this time of the year.  Well, who cares.  If the markets are going to give us another chance at a +30% price rally – we’re not going to miss the opportunity to buy within the basing zone.

Our opinion is that any opportunity to buy below $2.40 is an adequate entry level.  Ideally, try to wait for levels below $2.30 if possible.  This new basing zone pricing may not last very long, so try to take advantage of lower prices when possible.  Ideally, the upside potential for this move should be fairly easy to target given the historical price patterns that consistently drive Natural Gas higher in October and November.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

As skilled traders, we have to learn to take advantage of when the markets provide us with these extreme opportunities and setups.  We believe any upside move above $2.75 to $2.80 would be a suitable outcome for this extended basing pattern.  Gutsy traders could attempt to hold for levels above $3.00 – but we’re not confident that extreme price level will be reached quickly.

One thing most traders don’t understand is that the extreme winter weather that just hit the US and Canada last week could be a fairly strong indicator of early demand for heating oil, natural gas and other consumer energy products as an early winter may be setting up.  Either way, we believe this setup is a gift for skilled technical traders – don’t miss out.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Be sure to ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar and SPECIAL OFFER – CLICK HERE

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. This quick and simple to understand guide on trading with technical analysis will allow you to follow the markets closely and trade with it. Never be caught on the wrong side of the market again and suffer big losses. PDF guide: Technical Trading Mastery

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Downside Price Rotation Dominates After Manufacturing Data

Our research team has been all over this longer-term Pennant/Flag setup and the potential for the breakdown in the US/Global markets.  The US manufacturing data released today confirmed what we believed would be the outcome of the extended trade issues between the US and China – a moderate slowdown in US manufacturing.  Couple that with a US Fed that is attempting to navigate very difficult economic developments, consumers headed into the Christmas season unsure of what lies ahead, the US political environment (almost complete chaos) and uncertainties with foreign markets and we have a perfect setup for “investor malaise”.

This is something we last saw after 9/11 and even earlier in 1990 when the US invaded Kuwait.  With each of these events, consumers and investors entered a phase of moderate indifference/malaise in terms of attention put towards global economics and investing as well as a general unwillingness to actively engage in anything related to investing and finance related.  It appeared that consumers and investors were just busy taking care of their lives, families, jobs and watching the “news cycle” as it seemed every evening something new hit the news-cycles to distract from the markets.

If this is the case with the new Impeachment proceedings, the US Presidential election event (2020) and geopolitical trade/finance issues in today’s markets, then we may be entering a period where capital will continue to shift into safe-havens, protective stocks (DOW and dividend-paying stocks) and attempt to shun the high-flying, high-risk technology, Biotech and heavy-equipment and other stocks that rely on a booming global economy.  We have about 13 months to go before the November 2020 US Presidential elections and it appears we have a dramatically changing economic environment ahead of us.

If this downward price move continues as we expect, capital will move away from risk factors and into safe-havens, bonds, and blue-chip stocks as a method of protecting against valuation risks.  The NASDAQ and technology stocks could get crushed while the VIX index rockets higher. The smart money index and the price reversion look to be starting now and we explained it much more detail in this article.

S&P 500 (ES) DAILY CHART

This ES Daily chart highlights the new lower low produced by the downside price move on October 1.  This new low confirms the bearish trend is currently dominating the direction and suggests price may attempt to target the 2880 level (first level of support) before possibly moving lower.  Our researchers believe the ES is likely to fall 5% to 12% over this total downside rotation based on our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system. If this happens then see what we think will happen to the price of the VIX. Thus, retesting August 2019 lows is really going to be a key setup to determine what happens next.

DOW JONES DAILY CHART

This YM Daily chart provides an even more dramatic example of the new price low set up that continues to suggest further downside price action is in our future.  Support near 26000 would be our first target level and ultimate support near 25000 would be our ultimate support level based on recent price rotation.  Ideally, we believe the YM will move towards the 26000 level and find support rather quickly.  Much more quickly than the ES and NQ – as we’ve recently detailed in our ADL predictive modeling research article.

NASDAQ DAILY CHART

Because we believe the NASDAQ and the S&P stocks are more likely to experience a broader price rotation than the Dow Jones stocks, we believe that capital will begin a very dramatic and dedicate shift away from risk over the next 2 to 3+ weeks.  This would suggest that certain S&P and Dow stocks/sectors could see some support setting up within a 3~5 week span – well before the NASDAQ stocks find any real support.  It also suggests that Metals and Miners are likely to begin another rally higher over the next few weeks/months.

Ultimately, this will result in the VIX rallying much higher, as we suggested near 30+ days ago, and possibly targeting levels above 25 (initially), then possibly 35 as the capital shift extends.  Once capital begins to pour out of risk and into safe-havens, the VIX could rally above 40 on a deep price downturn in the NASDAQ.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

If this downside rotation extended into the global stock market, we may see a much broader rotation of capital throughout the world as risk factors are heightened and credit/debt issues are pushed to the limits for certain foreign nations/corporations.  This is likely to be a “shake-out” moment if the downside price move extends deeply.

Right now, we need to watch how the foreign markets will react to this new and how consumers and corporations address this manufacturing slowdown.  Obviously, everything is not as rosy as one might think given the global trade and economic issues.  But we believe this rotation is very healthy for the markets and if our ADL predictive modeling is correct, the ES and YM will recover near mid-November for a moderate Christmas rally for 2019.  The NASDAQ/technology/Biotech sectors, though, may not be so lucky.

Be sure to ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar!

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. This quick and simple to understand guide on trading with technical analysis will allow you to follow the markets closely and trade with it. Never be caught on the wrong side of the market again and suffer big losses. PDF guide: Technical Trading Mastery

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.

Fibonacci Predictive Modeling Suggests Price Volatility Will Continue

We believe price volatility may surprise many traders throughout the end of this year.  Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting that price must rotate dramatically higher or lower to establish any new confirmed price trends.  The Fibonacci price modeling system can be particularly useful in determining where and when price may attempt a major future price move.  Today, we are sharing both Daily and Weekly chart highlighting our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system for the ES and YM to help our readers and followers understand what’s in store for the US markets over the next few weeks and months. Before we get into the details be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter

Much like many of our other proprietary price and predictive modeling systems, the Fibonacci price modeling system adapts to price rotation, trends and volatility automatically by adjusting internal factoring levels and analysis functions to adapt to changes in price range and volatility.  The process of adapting in this manner provides us with some very insightful capabilities.  Today, we are going to focus on the Daily, the shorter term Fibonacci price analysis, and the Weekly, the longer term Fibonacci price analysis, modeling system results and attempt to share our current expectations with you.

This ES Daily Fibonacci chart prompts two initial analysis insights – first, the peaks near 3025 appear to have setup a double-top pattern that should be interpreted as major resistance.  Historical Fibonacci price trigger levels setup a range in price that has proven to be a key price channel (highlighted in LIGHT BLUE).  Current price rotation suggests continued price weakness may continue – at least until price attempts to rally above 3025 and attempts to establish a new price high.  Downside price targets are near 2900, 2695 and 2610.  Rotation within the price channel could continue for a while before a new price trend is established. If you want to see more of our trading indicators and tools click here.

This Weekly ES Fibonacci price chart highlights the very wide Fibonacci price trigger levels that suggest extreme price volatility could become a major factor going forward.  The interesting facet of this chart is that Bearish Fibonacci trigger levels have been crossed over the past 12+ months whereas Bullish Fibonacci trigger levels have stayed just outside of real price levels.  This suggests that the current upside price move, over the past 7+ months, could be a pullback in a bearish price trend.  As difficult as that may be for some traders to understand at this point, the process of the Fibonacci price modeling system that adapts to price trend and rotation is designed to allow for price to determine future outcomes.  Thus, the Bullish trigger levels being far outside the upside price peaks suggests that price may be moving higher within a defined downtrend cycle – a pullback within a bearish trend.

This Daily YM chart is setup very similar to the ES Daily chart with a defined price channel established by the current Fibonacci price trigger levels (highlighted in LIGHT BLUE on this chart).  The lower price peak recently, near September 11, suggests price was unable to rally back to near previous high levels.  Technical, this can be interpreted as a Double-top and can also be interpreted as a failure to attempt to rally above 27500.  We believe the current rotation is indicative of a channel consolidation before a breakout/breakdown move.

This Weekly YM chart highlights the extended range between the Fibonacci price trigger levels and suggests the YM is setting up a bigger move in the near future.  Just like the ES chart, the YM is showing that price is stuck within a channel and that the Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting a breakout or breakdown move is likely.  At these times, we would fall back to the Daily charts for the shorter term analysis which suggests sideways trading within a range and the potential that the bearish price trend is the more dominant bias.

We believe the US stock market could be setting up for a downside price rotation that may become very volatile over the next 2 to 3 months.  Price would have to break below recent price troughs before we could attempt to establish any new longer-term price trends.  The recent price rotation, higher highs, and higher lows, is indicative of a bullish price trend.  Although, we believe this trend may be a technical pullback of a bearish price trend.

Ultimately, price will dictate a new price trend and extended direction.  We believe any price rotation (downward) will be fairly short lived and setup a new upside price rally that will attempt to rally beyond recent price highs.  Skilled technical traders need to be prepared for extended volatility over the next 30 to 60+ days and be prepared for some big price trends.

MORE CRUCIAL WARNING SIGNS ABOUT THE US MARKETS TOPPING AND THE GOLD AND SILVER BULL MARKET

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where stocks are headed along with precious metals for the next 8-24 months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation, or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.  Visit our web site (www.thetechnicaltraders.com) to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

Massive Price Reversion May Be Days or Weeks Away

Our researcher team believes a massive global market price reversion/correction may be setting up and may only be a few days or weeks away from initiating.  Our team of dedicated researchers and market analysts have been studying the markets, precious metals, and most recently the topping formation in the ES (S&P 500 Index).  We believe the current price pattern formation is leading into a price correction/reversion event that could push the US major indexed lower by at least 12 to 15%.

Historically, these types of price reversion events are typically considered “price exploration”.  Over time, investors push a pricing/valuation bias into the markets because of expectations and perceptions related to future market valuations and outcomes.  What happens when these current valuation levels and future expectations shift perspective from optimistic to potentially overvalued is that a price reversion event takes place.  This happens when investors shift focus, determine value exists at a different price level and abandon previous valuation expectations.

The rotation in price is actually a very healthy process that must take place from time to time.  The structure of price waves (for example Elliot Wave, Fibonacci, Japanese Candlestick, Gann and other price theories) are based on this process of price rising to overbought levels, then retracing to oversold levels – again and again as price trends higher or lower.  This is the process of “price exploration” – just as we are describing.  In order for price to trend higher or lower over time, price must move in the wave like pattern to identify true value (retracement/reversion) and extended value (a rally or selloff) in a type of wave formation.

Here are examples of the typical price wave formations within an extended or intermediate-term price trend, but before you continue quickly opt-in to our Free Market Trend Newsletter.

These price formations/structure are inherent in all price activity/movement in every financial instrument traded throughout the world.  They are the underlying structural foundation of all price activity and the basis of Elliot Wave, Fibonacci, Japanese Candlestick and many other price theories.

WEEKLY CUSTOM VOLATILITY INDEX

Our Custom Volatility index is highlighting a very interesting pattern/setup currently that suggests a moderate price reversion may take place over the next few days/weeks.  We’ve highlighted these patterns on the chart below illustrating how our Custom Volatility index helps to identify these types of patterns.  They form after a moderately deep price decline, the first downside (RED) line shown in these examples, and are followed by a moderate price recovery.  Then, a deeper price decline sets up only 3 to 5 weeks after the initial price bottom resulting in what can sometimes be a very broad market decline.

For example, the decline in February 2018 resulted in a very moderate second price decline compared to the initial selloff.  The October 2018 price decline resulted in a similar pattern on our Custom Volatility index, but the second price decline was much deeper and more violent than the example in February 2018.  This is the type of price correction that we are expecting to see happen within the next 2 to 4 weeks.

The current price rotation on our Custom Volatility index mirrors the previous rotations almost perfectly and the new breakdown event should only be 3 to 10+ days away from starting.  The big question is “will this be a moderate price reversion event or a more violent price reversion event like we saw in November/December 2018?”

WEEKLY CUSTOM SMART CASH INDEX

Our Custom Smart Cash Index is suggesting weakness is dominating the global markets right now.  We would expect to see our Smart Cash index rise as investor expectations rally and as global stock markets rally.  Yet, this index has been steadily moving lower as weakness dominates investor sentiment.  We believe we may begin a new price reversion event (a price breakdown) on some news event or economic that could push the global stock market dramatically lower – possibly my 12%+ or more.  Our earlier, August 19th breakdown predictions, suggested a downside breakdown could result in a 16% to 24% market correction – these levels are still very valid.

WEEKLY DOW JONES INDEX

The Dow Jones Index is setting up a DUAL-FLAG (pennant) formation that has kept our researchers entranced over the past few months.  This very broad market patter strongly suggests a very violent and explosive price move is just days or weeks away.  We’ve highlighted the “Flag Apex Range” on this chart to show you where and when we expect this explosive move to begin.  Investors need to be very aware that these flag/pennant formations are extremely close to reaching the breakout/breakdown APEX and all of our other research tools are suggesting a move lower is the highest probability outcome given the current markets setup.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

As we’ve stated earlier, the global markets are very much “waiting on news events”.  It appears fundamentals and earnings are driving only 30~40% of the market movement recently.  NEWS is driving 60% to 70% of the global markets price rotation.  Geopolitical news, commodity supply news, war or any other aggression news is also very important in today’s world.  Pay attention to the news items that hit the markets as the global central banks attempt to navigate the undulating global market environment.

Our advice for skilled technical traders would be to protect everything from risks and prepare for some very extreme volatility over the next 3 to 15+ days.  We believe the APEX even is about to happen and it could become a massive price reversion event.

I urge you visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar!

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. This quick and simple to understand guide on trading with technical analysis will allow you to follow the markets closely and trade with it. Never be caught on the wrong sie of the market again and suffer big losses. PDF guide: Technical Trading Mastery

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.  Visit our web site (www.TheTechnicalTraders.com) to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

Is A Price Revaluation Event About To Happen?

Skilled technical traders must be aware that price is setting up for a breakout or breakdown event with recent Doji, Hammer and other narrow range price bars.  These types of Japanese Candlestick patterns are warnings that price is coiling into a tight range and the more we see them in a series, the more likely price is building up some type of explosive price breakout/breakdown move in the near future.  The ES (S&P 500 E-mini futures) chart is a perfect example of these types of price bars on the Daily chart (see below).

Tri-Star Tops, Three River Evening Star patterns, Hammers/Hangmen and Dojis are all very common near extreme price peaks and troughs.  The reason they form is that price is unable to rally or fall far enough within a normal trading day to project broader range types of Japanese Candlestick patterns and these rotational/top/bottom types of Japanese candlestick patterns are often found at or near key reversal points in price.  When they form in a series, like we are seeing currently, it is a very ominous warning that price will react in an explosive movement – either UP or DOWN. Be sure to opt-in to our Free Trade Ideas Newsletter.

Here are some examples of how these types of Japanese Candlesticks may appear in a chart.

Hammer type of patterns are similar to Doji pattern because the difference between the open/close price is very narrow.  Yet, instead of the Open/Close range forming near the middle of the price bar, Hammers form when this range forms near the high or low of the price bar.  They fall into the “umbrella” group of patterns and warrant a bit of extra consideration depending on where they form in price.  The can often create very clear warning signals just prior to a major price reversal.

SP500 (ES) DAILY CHART

This ES Daily chart highlights the sideways DOJI/HAMMER price channel that is setting up over the past 5+ trading days.  We believe this sideways, narrow price range, is going to prompt a massive price breakout or breakdown in the near future.  Historically, this current price level is strong resistance, thus, until we see any price move above 3035 on the ES, we must assume this resistance will continue to hold and a breakdown event may be the likely outcome.  The only way we can determine if price is capable of attempting to move higher is to wait for price to actually make a new high price above previous resistance.

MID CAP INDEX DAILY CHART

This MC, MidCap, Daily chart highlights the same period of time, but notice the range of the price bars on this MC chart are broader in range and scope.  We are not seeing Dojis bars like we are seeing on the ES chart.  This suggests that the real price action is taking place in the MidCap market, the Transportation Index and other trading instruments.  We would likely need to watch how the rest of the market is reacting to this sideways trading while attempting to understand that the S&P is setting up for a big breakout or breakdown event.

MID CAP INDEX WEEKLY CHART

This MC Weekly chart hSP500 (ES) Daily Chartelps us to understand the past 2+ years price rotation and why the current price levels, near 2000, are so important.  In January 2018, price collapsed from these levels.  In October 2018, price again collapsed from these levels – into a massive -24.85% downside move.  Currently, we’ve seen price test the 1995 level multiple times and fail.  Will it fail again and what is the potential for a broader downside price move?

As we stated earlier, until price is able to clear the 2000 price level, we must assume that resistance near 2000 will continue to hold and that price is more likely to move lower than higher at this time.  The only way we can determine if price is going to attempt to rally is to wait for it to attempt to reach a new high price from within recent price rotation.

Headed into this weekend, we would strongly suggest that all skilled technical traders plan for and prepare for some type of external new events, crisis events or anything that could drive price higher or lower.  It seems news is one of the biggest driving factors in the global markets recently.  Traders/investors are waiting for an impetus to drive trends.  The US Fed dropping rates really didn’t do much to improve investor sentiment.  It appears global traders want something BIGGER and BROADER to push prices higher at this time.  Improved global trade and economic ties would do it – but we don’t think that is going to happen within the next 3+ months.

Get ready for a wild ride and be sure to subscribe to my ETF trading newsletter so you don’t miss these opportunities www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

Crude Oil Setting Up For A Downside Price Rotation

Crude Oil has been trading in a fairly narrow range since mid-August – between $52 and $57 ppb.  Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system suggested the downside price move in late July/early August was expected and the current support aligns very well with our ADL predictions of higher price rotation throughout most of September/October.  Please take a minute to review the original research post below :

July 10, 2019: PREDICTIVE MODELING SUGGEST OIL HEADED MUCH LOWER

CRUDE OIL MONTHLY CHART FORECAST

We believe the current price highs, near $59 to $60, will likely continue as strong price resistance over the next 25+ trading days before a bigger breakdown begins near Mid-October.  We expect the price to continue rotating within a fairly narrow range in alignment with our ADL predictions.  Our original article suggested a high price target area near $60 from our ADL research.  Now that Crude Oil has nearly reached this level, we believe the continued upside opportunity in Crude Oil is limited. Be sure to opt-in to our Free Trade Ideas Newsletter to get more updates.

DAILY CRUDE OIL CHART

This Daily Crude Oil Chart highlights what we believe will become resistance just below the $60 price level and suggests the $55 to $56 price level may be intermediate support.  Thus, we expect the price to rotate a bit lower, possibly into the $54 to $56 level, then stall and rotate further as we transition into the end of September.

WEEKLY CRUDE OIL CHART TREND DIRECTION

We don’t expect anything crazy to happen in Oil until later in September or into early October.  Our ADL predictive modeling suggests that Crude Oil will peak in October and begin a broader downside move towards levels just below $50.  Crude Oil may begin this move a bit earlier than our ADL system predicts because of news or some fundamental data related to oil demand/supply.  It is not uncommon for the price to move towards the ADL predicted levels many weeks before or after our Monthly ADL predictions.  When we create the Monthly ADL charts, the data represented is based on highly probable levels for the completed month.  So, we know that near the month of October or November, Oil should be targeting the sub-$50 level.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Ultimately, near the end of 2019 or into early 2020, Oil should be targeting the sub-$30 price level on a larger downside price move.  Sub-$30 Oil would likely mean that global supply/demand issues, as well as global economic concerns, would be top-tier issues.  We believe the future price moves in Crude Oil will present very clear opportunities for skilled technical traders.  Right now, we have to be patient as the price continues to rotate above $55 and below $60 before the real price moves begin to take place.

I have had a series of great trades this month. In fact, over the past 20 months, my ETF trading newsletter portfolio has generated over 100% return when compounded for members. And we locking in 5.1% profits on Tuesday with the Russell 2000 index, and also XLU for a quick 1.43% profit as well. So, if you believe in technical analysis, then this is the newsletter and market condition for you to really shine, especially with my trading indicators coming online.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Be prepared for these price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.

Join me with a subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com