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VIX To Begin A New Uptrend and What it Means

The news of the drone attack on Saudi Arabia over the weekend prompted a big upside move in Oil (over 10%) and a moderate downside rotation in the US major indexes/stock market.  Although prices had recovered slightly by the opening bell on Monday, September 16, the shock wave resulting from this disruption in oil supply is just now starting to play out.

The long term uncertainty in the markets, as well as the rotation in the US Dollar and other foreign currencies, could play a bigger role in the type of volatility and extent of the immediate price rotation that may result from this external news event.  Our VIX predictions and ADL predictive modeling system are suggesting volatility will become front and center over the next 60+ day before settling into a more narrow price range.

As we see it, this disruption in oil is an external factor related to the markets.  Yes, it will disrupt about 5% of the global oil supply.  Yes, some type of retaliation could take place over the next 30 to 60 days.  Yes, the global markets will continue to rotate until they have priced in the additional risk related to this current event and potential future events.  That means investors must understand the value and opportunity of proper position sizing and risk management.  The next few weeks may be full of surprises.

VIX INDEX FIBONACCI UPSIDE TARGETS CHART

Our VIX chart highlights what we expect in terms of the potential upside price volatility in the US stock market.  You can see we expected the VIX price to decline after the peak in early August 2019, then bottom near August 20~21 and attempt a move higher (related to our August 19 breakdown expectations).  This breakdown never happened as news events pushed the general markets higher – abating the spike in the VIX we were expecting.  Our further expectations were that VIX would cycle lower near the end of August 2019 and into very early September 2019 before setting up a bottom near 24 and extending higher.  Obviously, our expected levels were off by quite a bit, but the rotation in the VIX continues to align with our rotational cycles.

Therefore, we believe the potential for an upside price move in the VIX is still very valid, especially given the events of last weekend and the continued trade talks, market fragility and potential for major news events.  We believe the VIX may be starting an upward price cycle that could push it well past 21~24 should the US stock markets rotate lower or contract.

 

SP500 INDEX WEEKLY ADAPTIVE DYNAMIC LEARNING (ADL) CHART

Our ES Weekly Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) chart highlights why we believe an extended volatility range exists over the next 60+ days and why we believe a rotation of 8 to 12% is a real possibility in the US stock market/major indexes.  Our ADL predictive modeling system is very useful because it highlights where price may attempt to target out into the future based on a proprietary price mapping/data mining solution.  The purpose of this tool is to map historical price activity by unique price pattern, technical data and categories, learn from the past and attempt to use this data to predict the future.  We’ve found it to be extremely valuable in our research.

This ES Weekly ADL chart suggests an 8 to 12% price range is set up in the US stock markets over the next 60+ days.  This suggests that and price weakness or external news event could send the US stock market much lower before finding any real support.  Any absence of this breakdown event or crisis-type news event would suggest that prices will attempt to drift moderately higher over the next 60+ days.

In other words, there is a very real potential for a potentially big downside price rotation currently set up in the markets.  That potential vanishes in early November 2019 as the ADL predictive modeling system suggests a more narrow target range for the price with an upside price bias driving markets to potentially new all-time highs.

 

CONCLUDING THOUGHT:

Get ready for some really great trading opportunities over the next 4+ months.  Any downside price rotation will present a very clear buying opportunity for skilled technical traders and members of our ETF Wealth Building Newsletter as we lead into the November/December market rally (Christmas Rally).  This means we must continue to be cautious of extended volatility and play these price rotations with a strong focus on managing risk before the November/December rally sets up to close out 2019.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

So, if you believe in technical analysis, then this is the newsletter and market condition for you to really shine.

Be prepared for these price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH SUBSCRIPTION!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

METALS ARE FOLLOWING DOWNSIDE SELL OFF PREDICTION BEFORE THE NEXT RALLY

It is absolutely amazing how the precious metals markets have followed our October 2018 predictions almost like clockwork.  Our call for an April 21~24 momentum base below $1300 followed by an extensive rally to levels above $1550 has been playing out almost like we scripted these future price moves.

Now that the $1550 level has been reached, we are expecting a rotation to levels that may reach just below the $1490~1500 level before attempting to set up another momentum base/bottom formation.  And just like clockwork, Gold has followed our predictions and price is falling as we expected. Just look at our October 2018 chart where we forecasted the price of gold rallies and corrections along the way.

GOLD FORECAST & IS THE DEBT CRISIS ABOUT TO BE REBORN IN 2020?
https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/is-the-debt-crisis-about-to-be-reborn-in-2020/

GOLD MINERS SELL OFF – DAILY CHART

Unfortunately, so many traders are highly emotional and fall in love with positions in shiny metals or gold miner stock positions. Yet we all know if you trade on emotions or fall in love with a position, you are most likely to lose a ton of money. Two weeks ago I got so much flack from traders when I said gold miners were on the verge of a violent drop in price, then the bottom fell out and the dropped huge. Then last Thursday morning when gold, silver, and miners are trading up huge in pre-market and at the opening bell I warned it looked like a big fakeout and price could collapse for yet a second leg down and the same response from those emotional traders who love their positions and won’t sell them when they should as active traders.

The downside rotation currently in Gold is likely not quite over yet and the gold mines will selloff the most.  This new momentum base should setup and complete above $1455~1465 as a true Fibonacci price rotation completes.  The next upside price leg should push Gold well above the $1760~1780 level – so get ready for another big rally of 20%+.

 

CAN YOU OUTPERFORM THE GDXJ?

If you like to trade in the precious metals sector then you most likely love to trade the gold miners ETF GDXJ. As you can see above GDXJ is only up 19.55% year to date. Sure, it’s a nice gain, but are you still holding your metals position knowing you just gave back most or all of your profits?

Being a technical analyst my focus is to only enter a position when the charts/analysis point to an immediate price advance or decline. I site in cash waiting for the next cycle top or bottom to form in an asset class like gold miners, gold, silver, or silver miners, and once the cycle starts I jump on the wave and ride it for the move until it shows signs that its weakening and will break. almost 50% of the year my portfolio is sitting in cash. And my average position only lasts around 12 days.

Take a look at all my precious metals related trades this year (2019) below. They are all winners, and total gain for subscribers of my Wealth Building Newsletter is 41.74% profit. More than double the return than if you were riding the GDXJ roller coaster for 9 months straight and all your money at risk.

My point here is that no matter how much you love metals (and I LOVE METALS), but you do not need to always be in a position in them. There are times to own, and times to watch with your money safely in cash.

 

 

GOLD EXPECTATIONS – DAILY CHART

The one aspect of all of this that all skilled technical traders need to keep in mind is that this initial upside price move in precious metals is very indicative of extended fear and greed in the global markets.  We all need to understand how every upside move of $10 in Gold related to a new, high, extreme fear level related to the global markets.  The bottom in Gold, near November 2016, was in relation to fear that the global markets would become, potentially, rattled by the new US president.  The continued upside move in Gold is less of that extended fear as we are entering the new US 2020 presidential election cycle.  At this point, it is related to the fear that the global markets have extended beyond means to sustain future growth expectations and that central banks may be losing control (and the ability to manipulate) the global financial markets.

The end result is that the fear and greed that is starting to show up in the precious metals markets may become an “unruly beast” if it continues to grow in strength and velocity.

 

SILVER EXPECTATIONS – DAILY CHART

Our expectations with Silver was that it would stall just below $17, rotate downward briefly and then begin another upside move – somewhat inline with Gold.  What really happened is that Silver prices extended to levels just below $20 before weakening.  This is partially due to the fact that metals suddenly became more “in focus” for global investors and also partially due to the fact that Silver suddenly became a “hot topic” because of the Gold/Silver ratio that continued to stay above 86~89.  Once traders realized the incredible value that Silver really presented – it seemed everyone started piling into the silver trade and we believe this increased volume drove prices towards the $20 level.

Still, Silver has recently rotated lower again, moving to levels below $18 and following Gold into a momentum basing pattern.  We do believe Silver and Gold may have a bit further to go to the downside before really finding support.  Our researchers believe Silver may target the $17 price level before completing the momentum base.  If this is the case, skilled traders should look for opportunities below $17.40 and get set up for the next upside price leg.

 

Keep reading our research because our proprietary tools have been nailing all of these price targets and moves many months in advance.  The next bottom in metals should set up within the next 10~15+ days – then the next upside leg will begin.  This time Gold should target $1800 and Silver should target $21 to $24.  This will be an incredible move higher if it plays out as we suspect.

I urge you visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar!

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Metals & The US Dollar: How It All Relates – Part I

The recent movement in the precious metals markets, an incredible 33% upside price move since August 2018, has reflected an increased level of fear and greed throughout the global markets.  Particularly, throughout the foreign markets.  Precious metals, specifically Gold, has skyrocketed to some of the highest levels in recent times as foreign currencies devalue against the US Dollar.  Still, consumers, institutions and central governments/banks are buying as much as they can right now.

12 Month Capital Shift Seen in Currencies

As we have been suggesting over the past 12+ months, a capital shift continues to play out in the global markets where capital is actively seeking the best, most secure locations for investment and we believe that will result in strength in mature global economies.  Take a look at this chart of various foreign currencies to understand how this capital shift process is really playing out across the globe. Be sure to opt-in to our Free Trade Ideas Newsletter.

Japan, Canada, Switzerland are all experiencing moderate price weakness against the US Dollar – yet these mature economies are fairing better than many others.  The relationship between the EUR and the GPB appears to be relatively stable as both currencies have dramatically weakened over the past 16+ months – almost in perfect alignment.  Comparatively, the other currencies within this display have experienced dramatic price weakness over the past 4+ years in relationship to the US Dollar and their associated PAIR currencies.

Gold Price Comparison In Other Currencies

The recent upside price move in precious metals exasperates the issue of localized consumption/acquisition of Gold/Silver as pricing pressures continue to push local pricing higher and higher.  We are still very early in the bullish price cycle for precious metals.  As increased fear and greed enter the markets over the next 15+ months, we believe the scramble to acquire physical metals and market positions will continue to increase even further.

These Gold Price Comparison charts, below, show just how dramatic the upward price move has been for foreign investors in local currencies.  In US Dollar terms, Gold has risen just over 33% (approx: $350 USD).  In Canadian Dollar terms, it has risen 30% over the past year (approx: $475 CAD).  In Australian Dollar terms, it has risen just over 34% (approx: $590 AUD).  In Chinese Yuan terms, it has risen just over 36% (approx: $$2,965 CNY).  In Indian Rupee terms, it has risen just over 29% (approx: $2,545 INR).  The reality is that precious metals have gotten very expensive for foreign investors in local currencies – and this is just starting to the metals rally.

The primary reason for this is the continued capital shift that has been taking place over the past 2 to 4+ years.  As the global markets entered a period where commodity prices started collapsing (2014 in Oil), the global markets started shifting away from emerging markets and risky assets/investments.  The hunt for more secure investment sources was on.

When Oil bottomed in early 2016, a reprieve in investor sentiment settled into the markets where expansion into more risky assets took place.  All of this changed with the top formation in the US stock market in early 2018 and the downside price rotation in Oil in October 2018.  Now, as precious metals start to rally and clearly illustrate that fear and greed are entering the markets, the continued hunt for secure, mature economic environments continue at a record pace.

In Part II of this research post, we’ll highlight why we believe the global markets are just starting a dramatic shift that will likely continue to unfold throughout the next 24+ months and why we believe it is important for all skilled technical traders to understand the risks that are present in the current global markets.  This is not your simple trending global market any longer (think pre-2014) – this is a BEAST.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I have had a series of great trades this month. In fact, over the past 20 months, my trading newsletter portfolio has generated over 100% return when compounded for members. And we locking in more profits on Tuesday with the Russell 2000 index. So, if you believe in technical analysis, then this is the newsletter and market condition for you to really shine.

Be prepared for these price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH SUBSCRIPTION!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Sector Rotation Giving Mixed Signals About The Future

It seemed the markets wanted to make a point to alert us that volatility may be here to stay very early in trading this week.  After a fairly flat overnight session with very little price volatility, the markets opened up to a moderately large price rotation (first downward, then back higher) before settling into a broader downside move in the early afternoon in New York.  The interesting facet of this move is that it seemed to be related to price valuations and expectations in certain sectors. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter so stay on top of these market moves.

As we’ve been suggesting for many weeks and months, we are not out of the woods quite yet.  The US markets may be subject to more price volatility than we have considered while the continued Capital Shift (foreign capital pouring into the US markets) may also be shifting.  One thing is certain, now is not the time to try to set up positional trades in the market expecting longer-term price trends to set up and run over the next few months.  This appears to be a traders market where skilled technical traders will shine by finding opportunities and executing very skilled and targeted trades for profits.

Many months ago we authored an article about the US Presidential election cycle and how that event plays into market uncertainty and price activity.  We are currently entering the prime span of time where price rotation and volatility because of this election event should take place.  This “price malaise” typically happens about 16 months before the election date.  As we move closer to the elections, the markets typically become much more volatile and enter a period where the price tends to consolidate near recent lows or establish moderate new lows as attention shifts away from the economy and towards the election news.

If you are serious about trading, this is when you want to pay very close attention to the various market sectors and understand that opportunities may be very short and sweet for profits.

Mid Cap Stock Index 30 Minute Chart Pattern

This first chart is the MC (S&P 400 Midcap) which shows how price strength in this sector moved against the overall price trend of the ES, YM, and others.  From the start of trading, the MC appeared to have a stronger upside price bias than the other US major market sectors.  This may mean that traders are finding real value in the Midcap sector and are stepping back into this sector thinking it may have some real opportunity for growth.

Transportation Index – 30 Minute Chart

Additionally, the Transportation Index moved higher in a similar structure.  The Transportation Index typically leads the US stock market by 3 to 6 months as an indicator of future price expectations related to the need for trucks, rail, shipping, and other economic-related activities.  More need for shipping/transportation solutions means a more active economy.  A more active economy means more buying and selling of goods, services, and other items.  Thus, if the Transportation Index can break recent high levels and begin a new upside price move, it would be a very clear sign that the US economy is strengthening and that the US major indexes may begin a new upside price move soon.

VIX – Volatility Index 30 Minute Chart

The VIX, on the other hand, is still showing us that price volatility has not vanished quite yet.  The VIX started moving higher early in trading and continues to push a bit higher right now.  If the VIX moves back above 18 or 19 quickly, the we are likely going to see increased volatility in certain sectors of the market which could present real problems for traders.  As long as the VIX stays below 18, then the volatility may stay a bit muted going forward.

Pay attention to the VIX and what happens to the major stock indexes over the next 2+ weeks.  Trade accordingly.  This is not your simple, safe trending market any longer.  This is larger volatility with increased risks.

If you are not a very skilled technical trader that understands risks and position sizing, then this market is probably not for you.  This is where you will likely chew through your account trying to run longer-term setups in a very choppy market environment.

Volatility is key.  Until the VIX settles back down below 12, we are going to continue to experience bigger, more volatile price rotations.  Some may be as large as 2% or 3% as news hits.  This is why we must understand the risks that are at play here and how to protect our assets from losses.  Remember, you don’t have to be in a trade all the time in order to profit from the markets.  Watch for the proper setups and wait for the proper entry point before this market chews you up and spits you out.

We believe our super-cycle research and other proprietary modeling systems are suggesting that price weakness will dominate the markets for the next few months. Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis and recession.

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH SUBSCRIPTION!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Precious Metals ADL Predictions Getting Ready For A Big Move

This weekend we thought we would share some really important data and charts with all of you precious metals bugs/traders (like us).  You probably remember our October 5th, 2018 call in Gold that has set off an incredible series of events for all of us.  We made a prediction that day that Gold would rotate higher from the $1200 level targeting the $1300 level, then stall and move lower to set up a “momentum base” near April 21~24 before accelerating much higher after June/July 2019.  Our original research chart is shown below. But first, be sure to opt-in to our free market forecast newsletter

This incredible research targeted the $1600+ level by September/November 2019.  We are only about $70 away from that level right now and we have new ADL research to share with all of our followers.

If you are a fan of our research or you can understand the value of the ADL predictive modeling system and what we have highlighted for our followers – you already know that any future ADL predictions for precious metals should be of particular interest to all of you.  What are metals going to do over the next few months and how can you prepare for this move, let us help you try to prepare for this next move.

Check out these exciting charts full of opportunities that we will be sharing.

This Gold Monthly chat highlighting the ADL predictive modeling system results shows why gold traders need to be patient and wait for the next setup.  That setup exists over the next 30 days as the ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting that Gold will attempt a downside price rotation to levels near $1490 before attempting another rally back above $1600.  This is the next proper price rotation setup that traders need to look for.  The second setup occurs in Jan/Feb 2020 where the price is expected to rotate from above $1600 to levels near $1540 before launching into another big rally to levels above $1870.

The Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is one of the most incredible price modeling tools we use in our research.  We’ve just shown you what our research tools believe Gold will do over the next 14+ months.  We believe we are helping more traders and investors by proving our incredible research tools work better than any other technology solutions available in the market right now and are proving it by posting these types of charts many months before price can attempt to prove or disprove our research.

Now, one of the biggest moves is going to be in Silver and we’ve all been waiting for the incredible reversion of the Gold/Silver ratio.  It is at that point when Silver begins to rally faster than Gold is rallying that we will see a true reversion in the Gold/Silver ratio.  That event will result in an incredible rally in silver that could push the price of silver above $35 to $40 per ounce – or higher.

Our ADL predictive modeling system running on a Quarterly Silver chart highlights the opportunity that still exists for metals traders.  Silver will continue to rally as Gold rolls higher.  Silver will continue to rally to levels just below $20 over the next 8+months.  The big breakout to the upside starts to take place Q3 2020.  That move will push Silver prices to levels above $20 where a brief rotation will take place.  By Q1 2021, the price of silver will be rallying extensively and the cat will be out of the bag in terms of what or why the metals are skyrocketing.

These moves in precious metals are going to be once of the most incredible opportunities for investors.  There will be other swings in market sectors and major global market indexes as well.  This is the time for all traders/investors to take advantage of the resources that are available to learn to take advantage of these setups.  Our research team continues to deliver some of the most incredible research and predictive modeling results anyone has ever seen.  If you can not see the value of being able to see 14 to 24 months into the future.

We urge you to consider finding resources and a team of researchers that can assist you over the next 12+ months as the moves in the global markets are going to be incredibly large and varied.  Now is the time to take advantage of these opportunities and to find the right partners to assist you in finding the right trades.

CRUCIAL WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

The August Stock market Breakdown Prediction and Analysis

Our August 19th breakdown prediction aligns with our other analysis tools and predictive modeling systems.  The key to understanding price action lies in two modes of operational aspects for analysts.  Either the analysis is going to be correct and the markets will break down as we have predicted or the analysis will be incorrect and the markets will break higher to rally to new highs.  We call this the “failure to fail” mode or the “failure to succeed” mode of compliance for price.  Either it will do what we expect or it won’t.

There are a few things that we, as analysts, must take into consideration with regards to future predictions of price action and direction.  First, sometimes we fail to make perfect predictions.  It is not easy or 100% guaranteed that our predictions will become valid or accurate on the day we suggest price should move in a certain direction.

We are going to show you the ADL charts that support our predictions and we are going to discuss why we believe the setup is still valid, but we are going to have to let price confirm our prediction and wait for it to move in a direction that either confirms our research or invalidates it.

As many of you know, we use advanced tools to help us understand and predictions regarding future price moves.  Many of our tools align with price cycles, predictive modeling, and other price modeling tools that we use to try to understand where and when the price may turn or continue to trend in a specific direction.

One of our most advanced tools is the Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling tool.  With it, we can ask the ADL tool to show us what price will attempt to do in the future based on a type of DNA candlestick mapping that attempts to isolate the highest probability outcomes.

Weekly NQ Futures Index Chart

Below, we’ve included a Weekly NQ ADL chart that shows you what our ADL predictive modeling system it expecting the NQ price to do over the next 10+ weeks.  You can see from this chart that price is expected to trail lower from current levels and to potentially reach a low point of 6500 by early October 2019.

One other aspect that we must consider is that price can sometimes react 2-5 weeks later than the ADL predictive price levels show.  We call these Price Anomalies.  This is where price sets up an unusual price formation that is actually moving against the ADL predictive price level (in this case, staying higher while the ADL predictive price level moves lower).

We determine these to be price anomalies because, in most cases, the price will eventually break toward the ADL predictive price level in a reversion move.  Therefore, these anomalies can sometimes be very good trading signals as price moves against the ADL predicted trend.

Be sure to opt-in to my free market research newsletter


VIX Weekly Chart

The ADL of the VIX Weekly chart shows a spike in the VIX levels over the next 3 to 7+ weeks.  This spike will likely coincide with a downward price move in the US markets that could begin as early as early September 2019.

The purpose of this ADL VIX Chart is to show you how our ADL modeling system is able to warn us of future price moves and how we can align certain analysis results with other charts to form a larger perspective of the markets in general.


Concluding Thoughts:

As of right now, the August 19th breakdown prediction we shared more than a month ago still stands as the price has yet to rally above 8050 on the NQ to present a new upside price trend.  Our ADL predictive modeling system is still suggesting that the price wants to move lower from current levels and attempt to target the 6500 price level.

Even though the exact August 19th date did not result in a price breakdown event, you must understand we were calling for a breakdown to happen “on or near August 19”.  That means sometime this week or next week most likely – possibly a bit later if the price anomaly of the stock indexes holding up at the upper end of our ADL price range.

If you’ve followed our research long enough you’ll understand that we can make these predictions about the future based on our advanced predictive modeling tools and research – yet we can’t be 100% accurate on the date/time of the event because we don’t have the ability to see that much detail or control what the global markets do in terms of price, trends, global central banks, and other factors.  We can only relate what we see in the markets using our modeling tools and attempt to help you understand what our predictive modeling systems are suggesting.

Right now, a price anomaly where the price is trading above our expected price prediction level appears to be set up which will likely result in a price breakdown in the near future (3 to 10+ days).  Time will tell.  If price rallies because of some external factor and breaks the 8050 highs on the NQ, then we would consider the ADL predictive analysis result to potentially be invalidated because of this new high.  Currently, that is not the case and we are waiting for the breakdown event to begin and will position our money accordingly when price confirms the move.

If you like this big-picture analysis and forecasts be sure to opt-in to my free market research newsletter or let me send you my low-risk index ETF trade signals plus my analysis with my Wealth Building Trading Newsletter.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

August 19 Turn Date is Tomorrow – Are You Ready?

Our August 19 breakdown prediction from months ago has really taken root with many of our followers and readers.  We’ve been getting emails and messages from hundreds of our followers asking for updates regarding this prediction.  Well, here is the last update before the August 19th date (tomorrow) and we hope you have been taking our research to heart.

First, we believe the August 19 breakdown date will be the start of something that could last for more than 5 to 12+ months.  So, please understand that our predicted date is not a make-or-break type of scenario for traders.  It means that we believe this date, based on our cycle research, will become a critical inflection point in price that may lead to bigger price swings, more volatility and some type of market breakdown event.  Thus, if you have already prepared for this event – perfect.  If this is the first time you are reading about our August 19 breakdown prediction, then we suggest you take a bit of time to review the following research posts.

August 12, 2019: AUGUST 19 (CRAZY IVAN) EVENT ONLY A FEW DAYS AWAY

August 7, 2019: OUR CUSTOM INDEX CHARTS SUGGEST THE MARKETS ARE IN FOR A WILD RIDE

July 30, 2019: AUGUST 19 PRICE PEAK PREDICTION IS CONFIRMED BY OUR ADL PREDICTIVE SYSTEM

July 13, 2019: MID-AUGUST IS A CRITICAL TURNING POINT FOR US STOCKS

Originally, our research team identified July 2019 as a market top potential back in April/May 2019.  Later, our research team updated our analysis to include the August 19 breakdown date prediction based on our advanced predictive modeling tools and cycle analysis tools.  This became a critical event in the minds of our research team because it aligned with much of our other predictive research and aligned perfectly with what we were seeing in the charts as we neared the Summer.

The top prediction for July 2019 by our research team became true as we entered early August.  This confirmation of our research and prediction back in April/May helped to solidify our belief that our August 19th breakdown prediction would likely become valid as well.  Whenever we make a prediction many months in advance, one has to understand that we are using our predictive analysis tools to suggest what price “wants” to try to do in the future.  External events can alter the price level by many factors to create what we call a “price anomaly”.  When the external events and price predictive outcomes align as they have been doing over the past 4+ months, it lends quite a bit of credibility to our earlier predictive research.

In other words, we couldn’t be happier that our research team has been able to deliver incredible insight and analysis regarding the global markets and how the price will react over the past 4+ months.  This is something no other investment research firm on the planet is capable of doing with any degree of accuracy right now.  In fact, it is amazing to us that we’ll read some research post by a multi-national investment firm that may suggest something now that we’ve alerted our followers to 90 days earlier.

Now, onto some new details about the August 19th breakdown event…

First, be very cautious about investing in Cryptos throughout this event.  The initial move, if our research continues to play out, maybe an upside rally in BitCoin based on fear as the global markets start a breakdown process.  But we believe this move in Cryptos will be very short-lived as our current research suggests central banks, governments, and other institutions are getting ready to pounce on unregulated Crypto Currencies.  It is our belief that the breakdown event will possibly push Bitcoin higher on a “move to safety” rotation.  But once Bitcoin investors understand that governments and institutions are targeting these digital currency exchanges as criminal enterprises that threaten central banks and that there is no real safety in putting capital into a digital enterprise that can be shut down in minutes, we believe a rush to the exits will begin to take place.

We believe the shift to real physical assets will take place as a shift in asset valuations continues to take place.  We believe the downside risk in Bitcoin is currently at least 30 to 40% from current values.  Our initial downside target is a level near $5570 for Bitcoin with potential for price support near $7900.

Daily Bitcoin Chart

This Daily Bitcoin chart highlights arrows that we drew in mid-July based on our expectations for future price rotation.  You can see that price, for the most part, followed our expectations and stayed within the Fibonacci price channel, near the lower price levels, while navigating the MAGENTA Fibonacci price amplitude arc (across the tops in price) as it moved towards our August 19th breakdown date.  It is critical to understand that price will attempt to either establish new price highs or new price lows based on Fibonacci price theory.  It is our belief that an upside rally towards the $11,300 level will be the “last rally” before a breakdown price trend pushes Bitcoin much lower.  This is likely the reaction of the “flight to safety” that we suggested earlier.

Weekly Bitcoin Chart

This Weekly Bitcoin chart provides a broader picture of the same event and how it will likely play out in the near future.  Remember, initially, global investors will attempt to pike into anything that is quick, easy and efficient to protect against perceived capital risks.  We are certain that some investors will attempt to pile into Cryptos as the breakdown event starts.  The question is, will this transition of capital stay safe long enough for investors to capitalize on the move?  We don’t believe so based on our research.

If the price of Cryptos breaks through that Magenta Fibonacci price amplitude arc and initiates a move to new higher highs, then we’ll have to rethink our analysis.  But for right now, we are sticking to our belief that Cryptos will see an impulse rally that will quickly be followed by a breakdown event (likely the result of some government intervention or broader risk event).

Weekly S&P 500 Chart

This Weekly S&P 500 chart highlights what we believe is the most likely immediate price trend related to the October 2018 price decline.  If a downside price move does initiate as we expect because of the August 19 breakdown inflection point, we believe the S&P will target immediate support above $2400.  If you’ve followed any of our research, you already understand we believe the move dynamic economies on the planet are uniquely situated to actually benefit from this downside price event.  Therefore, we must understand that a “price exploration event”, like this, is a mechanism for investors to seek out true value levels for global assets.  All major price corrections are, in essence, a process of seeking out price levels where investors believe “true value” exists.

NASDAQ Weekly Transportation Index

The NASDAQ Transportation Index paints a very clear picture for our research team.  In fact, we find the TRAN particularly useful in our research of the global and US markets.  Even though we follow dozens of symbols and instruments, one of our key objectives is to attempt to validate our analysis across multiple instruments/charts and to attempt to identify faults in our expected outcomes.

The recent downside price move in the TRAN aligns perfectly with our August 19 breakdown expectation.  It is very likely that some news or pricing event over the next 7+ days pushes the TRAN below the RED price channel and downward towards the middle Standard Deviation level near $3900.  Once the TRAN breaks the RED support level, you should expect the US and global markets to also begin a broader move lower.

Ideally, the $3500 level should operate as a moderately hard price floor for this downside move.  $3900 would be considered the initial target of the downside price move whereas $3500 would be considered the initial “hard floor” support level.  Given these expectations, we have to consider the potential for a -15% to -25% initial downside price move in TRAN which would translate into a -18% to -35% downside price move in the S&P or NASDAQ.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In closing, August 19th is tomorrow (Monday).  This is where we’ll find out if our prediction will be viewed in the future as accurate or not.  The one thing about making public predictions for many months in advance is that you can’t go back and try to lie to your followers/readers.  Either it works out as we suggested or it does not.  We believe in the skills of our research team and predictive modeling systems.  We’ve seen how accurate they have been in the past and we believe we’ve delivered top-tier analysis to all of our followers and readers.  In fact, we know you can’t find anything like this type of research from other investment or research firms.

Over the next 10 to 30+ days, we’ll be able to look back at our August 19th prediction and say “we were right” or “we were wrong” – that is part of trading, folks.  You use your best tools to make an educated assessment of current and future expectations, then act on it (if you want).  We’ll follow up on the other side of August 19th with all of you.

Stay fluid as this event plays out, and most importantly, know that we don’t blindly trade on predictions, we use our short-term technical analysis and current market trends to enter and exit trades. The reality is, no matter if the markets roll over and crash or rocket higher, we will follow and trade with the market. The best thing about being technical traders is we don’t care which way the markets go. We just analyze and trade with the current market trend and make money in both directions and at the drop of a hat!

If you want to trade and invest without the stress of a pending market collapse or missing out on another extended rally to new highs then join my Wealth Building Newsletter today and copy my proven technical trading setups and trade with me!

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

PART II – Silver, Transports, and Dow Jones Index At Targets – What Direct Next?

As you can probably imagine, we’ve received a ton of emails and questions about our recent predictions for precious metals and the August 19 breakdown date in the global markets.  It seems everyone is reading our research posts and is curious about how to prepare for these moves and how we came up with these predictions months in advance.  In this second part of our metals & Aug 19 update post, we’ll try to highlight our expectations going into the weekend prior to the Aug 19 breakdown date (Monday).

In the first part of this research post, we highlighted what we believe is the imminent completion of the MID Leg 1 upside move in precious metals.  Our research continues to suggest that we are still setting up a major LEG 1 upside move which should be considered a larger Elliot Wave structure.  Within this Wave (Leg) 1 formation, a typical 5 wave structure is likely to continue forming.  Currently, we are creating the Wave 3 of the total of 5 waves that will complete a finished upside Wave (Leg 1).

If our analysis is correct, the peak that ends Wave 1 could be well above $2000 for Gold and well above $24 to $28 for Silver.  Then, of course, we’ll set up for a corrective Wave #2 before another, BIGGER, upside wave #3 sets up in precious metals.

Taking a look at this Weekly Silver chart, you may be able to see the waves as we see them.

_  The upside price move from Dec 14, 2015, to July 4, 2016 sets up the initial upside Wave 1 leg.

_  The low in November 2018 sets up the end of corrective wave B from the initial bottom on December 14, 2015.

_  This setup suggests we are currently starting a Wave 3 upside move which is usually 1.5x larger (or more) than Wave 1.

_  Keep in mind that we believe all of these “minor wave” formations are part of a much larger 5 wave structure that is setting up.

As you look at the Fibonacci diagram, above, remember that within each of those waves (1 through 5), a typical complex price wave formation (1, 3, 5, or other more complex wave formation) will set up to complete the broader wave formation.  Therefore, as you review the chart below, keep in mind that we believe everything originating from the bottom on December 14, 2015, till now is still part of the WAVE 1 formation on that Elliot Wave chart.  We are just getting started with this move, folks.

Silver Weekly Chart with Wave 1

The YELLOW arrows we’ve drawn on this Silver chart are our expectations for Silver over the next 6+ weeks and will potentially complete the initial upside minor wave 3 formation/ Leg 1.  We do understand that Elliot Wave counting can be difficult to understand, but please allow use to preface this research by suggesting that every larger wave consists of smaller waves.  And those smaller waves, consist of sets of even smaller waves.  And so it continues all the way down to sub-one-minute charts. The point we’re trying to make is that the $21 endpoint on this chart is very likely just the end of Wave 1, subwave 3, impulse move C which may target a total of D moves before reaching the end of subwave 3.  To put it in more simple terms, we are only about 20% into this upside move right now based on our expectations.

Why is the move in precious metals so important for our August 19 breakdown date prediction?  Because we would expect precious metals to begin a massive price rally if the global stock markets were expecting some type of major downside rotational event.  A more into metals is a safety play for global investors.  If something is happening in the markets and fear becomes more evident, then precious metals should start to rally.  This sets up an expectation that some type of price revaluation event is likely to take place in the near future.

Thus, the upside price moves in Gold and Silver align perfectly with our August 19 breakdown expectation.  The key to this, in our opinion, is that Silver has really started to skyrocket on large volume.  This creates “confluence” in the metals group that fear is now driving investors into the lesser Silver market in preparation for a price reversion move soon.

Weekly Transportation Index chart

This Transportation Index chart highlights the fact that investors believe the future 3 to 6 months in the global economy will be moderately slower and that transportation activity and revenues will likely continue to diminish.  The Transportation Index is an excellent measure of future global economic expectations that can be used as a “general market indicator” for future expectations.

Dow Jones Weekly Chart

This YM Weekly chart highlights the key Fibonacci price trigger level that has setup near $26,170.  This is the critical price level for the YM to actually generate a confirmed Bearish price trend (end of week closing bar price level) which may be the initial downside price trigger.  As of the creation of this chart, the YM price was above this Fibonacci trigger level.  But as of right now, the YM price is already below the Fibonacci trigger level and if the YM closes the week below this level, then we would have a new confirmed Bearish Fibonacci price trend.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

The interesting fact behind all of this is that these predictions were made by our research team months before today.  Our Gold prediction was initiated near October 5, 2018.  Our August 19 breakdown date was initiated near May 2019 (originally as a July Topping pattern expectation and later revised to the August 19 breakdown date).  All of these predictions were created using our proprietary price modeling, predictive analysis tools, and advanced cycle analysis tools.

We find it absolutely incredible that we are able to make these types of predictions many months into the future and watch the markets do exactly what we suggested would happen.  Obviously, we hope you are finding value in our research posts and modeling systems as well?

If you have not already prepared for the August 19 breakdown date prediction, we would suggest that you consider how you would want to protect any open long positions at this time (headed into the weekend) and set up your portfolio for a broader market rotation and upside move in precious metals over the next 3+ months.  It is not too late to take action to protect your assets – even weeks past August 19, you can still act to take advantage of these bigger price moves.  We are simply urging you to plan and prepare for these moves as you read our research posts.

FORECASTED MOVES FOR GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND STOCK INDEXES

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused on gold miners and the SP 500 index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

JOIN ME AND TRADE WITH A PROVEN STRATEGY TODAY!

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

US Fed Set To Rattle Global Markets – Part II

Today is the day for the US Fed to announce their rate decision and we believe the 25 basis point rate cut is the only option they have at the moment that will attempt to settle foreign market fears and allow for a suitable “unwinding” of the credit/debt “setup” we highlighted in Part I of this research post.

We believe out August 19 expectation of a global market PEAK and the beginning of a price reversion move is related to multiple aspects of the timing of this Fed move and the current global economic outlook.  The unwinding of this debt/credit bubble will likely take many more years to unravel.  Yet, right now the US Fed is trapped in a scenario they never expected to find themselves in.  Either continue to run policy that supports the US economy (where rates would likely stay between 1.75 to 2.75) over the next 5+ years or yield to the global market and attempt to address a proper exit capability for this debt/credit “setup”.

We believe global investors are expecting a massive collapse in the US stock market as a reaction to this move by the Fed and because of the expectation that another bubble has set up in the US.  But we believe the actual bubble is set up in the foreign markets and not so much in the US.  Yes, the US markets have extended to near all-time highs and the US consumer is running somewhat lean.  It would be natural for the US economy to revert to lower price levels and for the US economy to rotate as “price exploration” attempts to find true market support.  Yet, our fear is that the foreign markets are much more fragile than anyone understands at the moment and that a reversion in the US markets will prompt a potential collapse in certain foreign markets.

Weekly SPY chart

This Weekly SPY chart highlights what we expect to transpire over the next 6 to 8+ months.  We believe the August 19 peak date that we predicted months ago will likely start a process that will be tied to the US election cycle event (2020) and the US Fed in combination with global market events.  We believe a reversion price process is about to unfold that could be prompted into action over the next 2+ weeks by the US Fed, trade issues and global central banks.

If the US Fed drops the FFR by 25pb, the fragility of the foreign market debt/credit issues is not really abated or resolved.  It just allows for a bit of breathing room that may allow these foreign debtors enough room to wiggle out of some of their problems.  The US Fed would have to decrease rates by at least 75 basis point before any real relief will materialize for these foreign debtors.

Asian Currency Custom Index

This Asian Currency Custom Index used by our research team highlights the weakness in the foreign markets.  The recovery in 2018 is related to the Chinese/Asian currency market recovery that initiated in Feb/Mar 2018.  The recent weakness in this custom index is related to strengthening major market currencies (USD, CAD, JPY, CHF) in relation to weakening Asian currencies.  Notice how the price channels have set up to warn us that any further downside move will initiate a new “price exploration” phase that could see a -20% to -25% decrease in currency valuations – possibly much deeper.

We believe this is the real reason the US Fed is opting to decrease the FFR rate now and is not taking a more stern position related to US economic performance.  We believe the US Fed is, again, donning the “Superman cape” and attempting to Save The World from their own debt/credit mess.

We are holding to our original predictions and expectations.  We believe the US stock market indexes will enter a reversion price phase over the next few weeks that will prompt a downside price reversion toward recent lows (2018 levels or deeper).  We believe this process will end in early 2020 and that the lows established by this move will represent incredible opportunities for skilled technical traders.

Weekly Dow Jones chart

This Weekly Dow Jones chart highlights our expectations.  We believe a mild price rotation will start this move over the next 2~4 weeks before the August 19, 2019 date prompts a breakdown move.  After that date, we believe an extended downside price leg will continue to reach a price bottom near the end of 2019 or in early 2020.

This Weekly Dow Jones chart highlights our expectations.  We believe a mild price rotation will start this move over the next 2~4 weeks before the August 19, 2019 date prompts a breakdown move.  After that date, we believe an extended downside price leg will continue to reach a price bottom near the end of 2019 or in early 2020.

Skilled traders understand how the global markets are setting up for incredible opportunities and how to identify where and when these opportunities are ripe for profits and this is where we can help you!

CRUCIAL WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where each commodity and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

US Fed Set To Rattle Global Markets – Part I

With less than 24 hours to go before the US Fed rate decision announcement, all eyes are watching how the US stock market is reacting to the possibility of a rate cut (25 basis point) that has been telegraphed by the US fed many weeks in advance. Almost as if the US stock market is moving against all odds, the S&P and NASDAQ have pushed higher into new all-time high territory while the Dow Jones index currently trades just below recent highs.  What should traders expect with the Fed announcement and beyond?

Probability of Rate Cut Percent

First, we need to understand the global markets have already priced a 25 basis point rate decrease into the markets based on expectations.  The CME Fed expectations data suggests the market is 78.1% confident that a 25 basis point rate decrease will happen.

Source (CME)

This suggests that global traders are already prepared for this move and we may not see much volatility if the US Fed does not surprise anyone with their language/future expectations.

We believe the US Fed is taking this rate decrease to ease the supply of US Dollars throughout the world.  Over the past 18+ months, the strength of the US Dollar has prompted a shift away from weaker global economies and into the US equities market, US Treasuries and the US Dollar.  We believe this shift is reaching a critical moment in time where the fragility of the foreign markets has reached a tipping point.

Weekly US Dollar chart

You can see from this Weekly US Dollar chart that the rally from the bottom in early 2018 has been tremendous – +11.25% and climbing.  While this US Dollar rally has taken place, many foreign currencies have continued to weaken while the global economy has recently slowed to a crawl.  As long as the US Dollar stays within the magenta price channel moving forward, we expect this trend to continue.

The shift in how capital is being deployed and the stress that continues throughout the globe with regards to economic activity and output is related to something that we believe took place back in 2007 through 2016 – the global effort to support a very weak global economy.

We highlighted some of our thoughts in this recent research post about the black hold in global banking.

Overall, we believe the actions by the global central banks and the US Fed from 2007 till 2016 created a “setup” in the global markets that very few people foresaw or understood.  This shift happened at a pace and fever that few people could comprehend and came to a head in November 2016 when President Trump was elected.  We believe it happened somewhat like this…

2004~2006: Greenspan raises rates on an unprecedented scale (over 450%) pushing the US/global banking/credit sector into crisis in 2007-08

2008~2010: As the biggest global banking/credit crisis unfolds, the US Fed and global central banks do everything possible to save the world from decades of economic malaise and destruction.  US Fed lowers interest rates to near ZERO creating a run on US dollar debt/credit.

The Current Market Setup

2011~2015: As foreign market engages in debt/credit expansion, infrastructure projects and an “easy money” rally mode, something begins to change in 2014~2015.  China realizes the nation’s wealth is being exported to the US and other markets as well as a US stock market rotation that shocked the global investors.

2016~2017: The US Elections (2016) took the focus away from the global markets for a period of 15+ months and allowed the easy US Dollar trading activities to continue into hyperspace.  This is when many foreign nations/companies took huge risks leveraging debt and success into future debt/risks based on a belief that “this success will never end”.

Then This Happened…

January 2017: President Trump is sworn in and the US Fed begins raising rates aggressively.  The disruption that resulted from this 2017 combination event resulting in one of the largest “global unwinding” processes we’ve seen in quite a while and it has really only just begun.

The downward rotation in the US Dollar in early 2017 as a result of uncertainty in US policy and perceived strength in foreign markets as US interest rates were still relatively low – under 1.4% most of that time.  After US FFR rates crossed above the 1.75% level, the easy US Dollar carry trade became much more difficult to maintain and foreign investors had already setup trillions in debts expecting the US Fed to maintain easy money policies for decades.


Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EFFR

What is the US Fed expected to do at this time?  Either they lower the FFR so that the global markets can continue to run their credit/debt functions and attempt to deleverage the “setup” over the next 5+ years or the US Fed risks creating a run-away train type of scenario where foreign central banks lack the ammo to support their own economies and the US Fed risks creating hyper-inflation by not acting accordingly.  In short, the US Fed to the global bankers rescues again.

Well, here we go with the US Fed setting the policy and expectations for the future as this incredible 1800% FFR rate increase has pushed the global markets into potential turmoil.  We’ll complete our research in the second half of this research post in a few hours stay tuned!

CRUCIAL WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, And S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where each commodity and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com