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Right on the Gold Bull Market

 


Chris Vermeulen had been calling for a gold breakout for a number of months. Some FSN Members snarkily doubted his call. However, they’re not doubting him any longer, what with gold breaking resistance and now hovering near $1400 the ounce. Chris oil call was also remarkably on the money, with oil crashing to the low $50’s from the mid $60’s. Chris is calling for silver to soon join the fun and then it will be off to the races.

Click Here to Listen to the Audio

PART III – Debt Crisis To Be Reborn In 2020

This final portion of our multiple part research post regarding the future of a crisis-like price revaluation event will focus on two components that we want to highlight for every trader, investor, and reader.  It does not matter if you are invested in anything at this point – you need to read this last portion of our research because you need to plan for and prepare for this next event.

On March 31, 2019, we published this research post regarding our cycle analysis predictions and the belief that a major price cycle top would likely form in July 2019.

On June 11, 2019, we updated our research and published this post regarding our belief that current cycle forecasting suggested the top in the market would now be set up for some time in late August or early September 2019.

This SPY chart highlights what our research team believes to be the current outcome of the US stock market given our predictive modeling systems, price rotation modeling and other proprietary utilities we use to conduct our research.  We believe the current upside price rally is a push to establish price levels above $300 on this SPY chart, just as we suggested in the June 11 article, and that this attempt a major psychological price level ($300) will likely become an exhaustion rally point where price immediately rotates lower – attempting to find support.  We believe temporary price support will be found near $287 to $298 where the price will briefly stall and move slightly higher into August 2019.

It is at this point that our cycle research becomes critical for technical traders.  This price rotation will set up a final leg to a larger Pennant/Flag formation with the potential for that last upside price leg, in August, to become a “washout high” price move.  This happens when price fakes a price move/trend, causing investors to believe a breakout or breakdown more is taking place and JUMP IN, then price immediately reverses direction.

It is extremely important for all technical traders to understand our original price predictions, from March 31, 2019, and our current price predictions, from June 11, 2019, align with this current article in certain aspects.  Price is going to target the psychological $300 level in the SPY.  Price is going to continue forming into a Pennant/Flag formation.  And the price will likely peak in late August or early September – just as we have predicted.

We expect this price rotation, or price revaluation event, to attempt to find support as we have highlighted on this chart.  If these levels fail to hold as price support, then we could be in for a much deeper price revaluation event.  We don’t believe that will be the case as the US elections and other factors should prevent the price from falling too far below the $245 level.

Expect some increased price volatility over the next 30+ days.  Expect Gold and Silver to properly reflect the FEAR and GREED that is prevalent within the global markets.  Expect many traders will be caught off guard when this $300 level on the SPY is breached as many will be thinking “we are off to the races – time to pile into the LONG SIDE”.  We believe this is the wrong action to take.

We’ll keep you informed as this plays out with Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar!

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these super cycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

PART II – Is The Debt Crisis About To Be Reborn In 2020?

There are some key elements of political and economic Super-Cycles that all traders must stay aware of listed below. But if you have not yet read PART I do so now.

_  Very often, 12+ months before a major US political election cycle, the US stock market typically enters a Bearish trend phase that lasts until 8+ month before the actual election date.

_   The Transportation Index has not recovered to levels from the September 2018 peak.  This lower price rotation in the Transportation Index suggests the global economy is not expecting growth in the near future.

_   Other than Precious Metals, the Commodities sector has rebounded off of recent lows but has yet to see any real price advancement – suggesting that demand for raw commodities is rather weak.

_   The Real Estate sector in the US is starting to falter near a current high price level.  We are seeing price decreases hit the markets as sellers are desperate to attract buyers.  This could be a warning that a price revaluation event is about to unfold in the US.

_   Super-Cycles suggest a moderately sized price rotation between now and early 2020 (likely greater than 20% in size).  This rotation, should it happen, will become a price revaluation event that could attempt to “shake loose” some of the sector pricing and forward expectations we’ve mentioned (above).

Our bigger concern is the localized state and federal pension and retirement issues that continue to respond with higher levels of financial commitments and greater levels of annual budgets as related to ongoing capacity and operational activities in the US.

If an unwinding event was to unfold in or near 2020, it is our belief that a pricing revaluation event related to any of the core economic factors above (particularly with Real Estate, Economic Cycles, the US Presidential Elections, and a soft/weakening US economy) could result in a much larger price revaluation event taking place.  This would create extended pressures on local State and Federal expenses and highlight debt issues that can often be hidden behind “creative accounting” tricks.

State and Local Government Debt Securities and Loan Liability levels have stayed elevated, yet somewhat flat over the past 10+ years.  It is very likely that these debt levels have been contained because of the US easy money policies of the past 10+ years.  When the US Dollar is cheap and easy to repay, these debt levels don’t look so difficult.

Pension and retirement systems/fund are a completely different story for State and Local government agencies.  Asset flows have dramatically increased in volatility after 2000.  Additionally, the depth and magnitude of asset outflows have become quite dangerous while price revaluation events were unfolding (2000 to 2004 and 2008 to 2015).  Outflows in state and federal pension and retirement funds create large forward operational pressures and shortfalls in expected funding levels.  These decreases in funding should be made whole by the State or City – but they are rarely ever repaid in full.

As these “wholes” in the pension and retirement systems continue to fester (resulting in decreased funds for pensioners and decrease fund to be deployed as investment assets), the problems begin to compound over time.  More and more retirees and pensioners start drawing benefits while the system continues to take in less and less – never actually catching up in total value.

One big revaluation event, or possibly two, from now and we believe the entire system will create a multiple Trillion Dollar debt crisis within the US and possibly throughout the modern world.  We believe the under-estimated state and federal pension/retirement funding issue is the next shoe to drop and that it will take a price revaluation event to expose the risks that are evident within this failed “Ponzi” scheme.  Read the recent news about Chicago and Illinois to learn just how dangerous these entitlement contraptions really are.

Let’s assume that a revaluation event does take place within the next 5 to 10+ years – this would be something like a Real Estate price correction or some type of stock market, asset market price correction related to local or global economic issues.  Could these massive asset funds handle an extended DRAWDOWN from their funds while Cities, States, and Federal agencies attempt to deal with declining revenues?  How much time would it take for these pension and retirement funds to fall into crisis or insolvency?

By our estimates, the current asset levels in the US retirement/pension system have just started to breach the lower asset level channel originating from 1970 to 1999 attribution levels.  It has taken 20+ years of  US Fed and global Central Bank market manipulation, as well as President Trump’s incredible US economic and stock market rally, to recover to these levels.

Overall, skilled technical traders must be aware of the risks that are ever-present for another crisis event or what we are calling a “price revaluation event” that could create havoc on anyone’s retirement accounts, trading portfolios and/or simple family life/future.  We’re trying to help to highlight what we believe will be the future 16 to 24 months of pricing activity within the US Stock market based on our research tools and our experience/knowledge.

I urge you visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar!

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these super cycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Is The Debt Crisis About To Be Reborn In 2020?

We have been focused on the upside price move in Gold and Precious Metals, we’ve been engaged in multiple private conversations with members and friends about the potential for a renewed debt crisis between now and the end of 2020.

This research post should help to put some perspective into what we believe the next 16+ months of trading and what the US economy should look like for our followers.

First, we want to talk about one of our most favorite topics of the past 24+ months – the “capital shift” phenomenon.  We first identified this facet of global economic dynamics back in 2015 or so.

As the global economy shifts focus on risks and opportunities, capital shifts with these expectations and moves away from risks and into investments that are seen as opportunistic and safer.  This dynamic is still very much at play within the global markets.

Second, we want to discuss global Central Banks and their attempts to spark growth after the 2008-09 credit crisis event.  Even though Global Central banks have continued to spark some type of fundamental economic growth over the past 9+ years, these QE activities have also produced a very high level of debt arising from extended government spending, consumer spending and lack of real savings initiatives.  While governments and central banks were chasing the “gold ring” of inflation, they lost focus on the fundamental elements of the economy which are debt levels, price valuation levels and future operational capabilities with regards to debt vs. income.

Recently, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) issues a scathing annual report suggesting the global Central Banks have been negligent in properly managing debt levels, QE functions, and fundamental economic policies in an attempt to continually chase growth and inflation. BIS Review by Bloomberg.

Third, Gold and precious metals have started to rally from levels near historical low points.  This increased upside price activity is a very clear sign that FEAR and GREED have re-entered the global markets and that global investors/traders are starting to react to unknown and unseen potential risk factors.  Are they reacting to future trade issues, future debt issues, future growth issues??  What is it?

The reality is, we never really know until the event is complete as the hind site is 20/20. What really matters is understanding that this type of money flow is happening and that we have a way to track and forecast these levels of fear and greed.

The gold chart below shows our expected price of gold forecast from October of 2018. As you can see, we identified the bottom and rally, then the more recent bottom in April/May, and today we are experiencing the extended rally (fear/greed) driven rally.

Not only can we accurately forecast gold long term moves but we can also pinpoint short term bottoms and tops using our intraday cycle and fear/greed tools as shown here.

Forth, the breakout economy in the world, the US, is not something that happened by chance.  After the 2008-09 global economic crisis, the US entered a period of extended QE throughout President Obama’s term.  The US QE functions didn’t really end until just before the 2016 Presidential Elections.  Thus, from roughly 2009 till 2015, the US was engaging in some form of QE measures which supported the global Central Banks by allowing for cheap US Dollars.  The continued US QE efforts allowed foreign nations, governments, and enterprises to take advantage of a very unique extended cheap US Dollar event that has now GONE AWAY.

It is our belief that this fundamental change in the US Federal Reserve, wanting to attempt to normalize rates, while President Trump’s attempt to restructure and settle more suitable trade deals with China, Europe, Mexico, Canada, and others has disrupted the apple cart – so to say.

The easy access to the US Dollar is gone.  Easy trade and special deals for China and others are gone.  The US economy is strengthening because of fundamental economic strength – size, capabilities, pricing valuations and the attraction of foreign capital investments.

We talked about this in great detail including how we expected the SP500 to reach 3000 and beyond months ago.

All of these points raise some very interesting questions – primarily “what is the unwinding event going to look like?”

Global Central banks will do everything within their power to push off any signs of crisis events and to foster some level of economic growth for as long as possible.  We all know this to be true.

The spark all these Central Banks have been waiting for is economic growth.  What happens if that growth initiates at the same time that Inflation initiates at a 2x or 3x rate?  Economic growth would support increased demand for commodities and other items.  This increased demand will likely prompt moderate inflation – making these items even more expensive to purchase much beyond the pricing we see now.

A combination of moderate growth and increased inflation in the US could prompt the US to raise rates even further in an effort to contain inflation.  A spike in rates, at this point, could completely destroy support for current asset levels, Real Estate, Debt and other operational components of our already stressed local state and federal governments.  Yikes.

We believe we know what the unwinding event will eventually become once the trigger event initiates the move.  We believe it will become a price “revaluation” event where assets and commodities prices attempt to identify an “equilibrium” based on historic and current supply/demand expectations.  The one caveat to this whole presumption is DEBT – what about all the DEBT?

In Part II of this multi-part research post, we’ll share our current understanding of the market cycle and what the next 16 to 24 months will likely bring for investors/traders.

I urge you visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar!

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these super cycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Gold Forecast: Gold Is Going Parabolic And Which Way Up Or Down?

As a technical analyst since 1997 for Technical Traders Ltd., I believe gold is entering the final leg of an advanced upside price wave formation that will ultimately target $1650 to $1750 in the coming months BUT…

READ FULL ARTICLE HERE

The Long and Short Plays For Gold Traders

The last few weeks for gold trader has been really exciting. Let face it, metals are starting to outperform us Equities late in a US stock bull market and we all know what that means. If you don’t know what I mean check out these charts!

Recently I posted an exclusive gold analysis article on Gold-Eagle.com talking about the next big moves and timing for the price of gold. Things are about to get much more exciting and life changing for those involved on the right side of the move.

In fact, in the next week, I will be sharing the absolute best way to take advantage of the gold move and it is most likely the exact opposite of what you are doing/plan to do. Recently Eric Sprott (Canadian billionaire, precious metals specialist) talked about my analysis and he touched on this gold trading strategy as well.

Ok, let’s jump into some really exciting charts showing where gold should move next based on the dollar price and my gold cycles.

USD Dollar Controls The Price Of Gold

The daily chart of the US Dollar index below shows where I think it should move in the next week. If the dollar rises it will keep the price of gold contained and possibly force it lower, which is what my gold cycle analysis system is confirming as well.

The big question is if the dollar just had this bounce and rolls over, or if the dollar continues to rise after this upside target is reached. This will control what the price of gold does in the near future.

My Price of Gold Cycle Prediction System

My custom gold cycle analysis which takes the most active cycles in the market and blends them into one line paints a clear picture of where the price of gold should move in the next few days.

While the red forecast shows a strong sell-off, keep in mind this is just the trend bias, price does not move to the levels of the cycles, but rather if the cycle is moving lower expect the price to trade sideways or lower as well during that time frame. It’s a trend guide only, not to be used for price targets.

This awesome indicator is just one of the trading tools I developed, which I use for oil, the SP500 and many other assets is what I use and share with subscribers of my trade alert newsletter.

Gold Trade Signals Made Simple

So how do we trade cycles and time the price of gold? There are infinite ways, but I have honed in two key strategies/tools I created to make things visual and simple to follow.

Below is what I currently call V9 (Velocity-9 from the show Flash I watch with my son), or maybe because of its Version 9 (It’s 9 years in the making)? Does not really matter, the point is it’s designed to identify trading signals for gold, silver, miners, indexes, etc… and it does this remarkably well.

The chart I think is self-explanatory but in short, it tells us the market trend, when to be long, short, or in cash. It further goes on to provide high probability trade trigger and price targets for both quick momentum trades and swing trades.

To take things one step further, by knowing the trend and when it’s starting to change the direction you can simply buy and hold high beta stocks or leveraged ETF’s with the market trend as an active trader/investor.

This system focuses to pull 1.2% – 2.5% out of any market it’s trading, and if you use a 2x or 3x ETF you can generate 5% – 7.5% return quickly and with little downside risk.

Food for thought, only fifteen 5% winners = 100+% return!

If you want to see this tool used on the SP500 take a look at these charts here.

Concluding Thoughts:

In short, I’m bullish on gold as mentioned in my recent Gold-Eagle.com article but in the near term, we could be in for a little choppy price action.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, but stocks, and currencies. Some of these super cycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I urge you to visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Palladium Sets Up Another Double Top Pattern

Is this Double-Top setup in Palladium another warning of a potential downside price move?  Back in April 2018, we issued a Double-Top pattern warning in Palladium which preceded a downside price move of nearly 28%.  We believe this new Double-Top pattern may prompt a downside price move of nearly 20% – targeting the $1240 level.

April 18, 2018: PALLADIUM RALLY DRIVING OTHER METALS TO MOVE?

This Weekly Palladium chart highlights the YELLOW Double-Top pattern formation that we believe may prompt a new downside price move.  Our expectations are that any new price weakness in Palladium will push prices down to the BLUE Fibonacci projected target level near $1240.  Additionally, should price break through the $1240 level, the next target levels are $1000 and $1060.

Palladium is a component that is related to industrial output and economic output for many industries; Automotive, Technology, Medical Devices and Equipment, and many others.  A decrease in demand for Palladium would indicate a decreased demand for a broad swath of global industry leaders.

This would likely result in a decreasing or weakening global economic outlook and, potentially, be an early warning sign that the global stock markets are about to enter a period of extended price weakness.

Pay very close attention to the $1450 to $1475 level in Palladium.  These levels are the most recent support levels from previous triggers.  Price weakness below these levels would be a strong indication that Palladium may continue to move lower targeting the $1240 level or lower.

Look at my trend analysis chart for Palladium. Yes, it is in an uptrend but as of the last trading session it is now trading at an extreme overbought level which typically means sellers should step into the market at any time.

See my current trend and trade signals for the SP500 index here.

Now is the time to plan and prepare for these incredible price swings in the global markets.  The next 18-24 months are certain to present technical traders with countless opportunities for success with these bigger price moves.

Our recent calls in the markets have resulted in over 42% in total gains over the past 60 days.  Isn’t it time you learned how www.TheTechnicalTraders.com can help you find and time better trades?

Become a Technical Trader and Profit with Us

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

Part II – Are Real Estate ETF’s The Next Big Trade?

In part I of this research post, we highlighted how the shifting landscape of the US real estate market may be setting up an incredible trading opportunity for technical traders.  It is our belief that the continued capital shift which has been driving foreign investment into US assets, real estate, and other investments may be shifting away from US real estate as tell-tale signs of stress are starting to show.  Foreclosures and price drops are one of the first signs that stress exists in the markets and we believe the real estate segment could be setting up for an incredible trade opportunity.

SRS, the Proshares Ultrashort Real Estate EFT has recently completed a unique “washout low” price bottom that we believe may become an incredible trading opportunity for technical traders.  If the US Fed pushes the market into a panic mode, sellers will become even more desperate to offload their homes and buyers will become even more discerning in terms of selecting what and when to buy.

Our opinion is that the recent “washout low” price bottom in SRS is very likely to be a unique “scouting party” low/bottom that may set up a very big move to the upside over the next 4 to 12+ months.  If our research is correct, the continued forward navigation for the US Fed, global central banks and the average consumers buying and selling homes is about to become very volatile.

If SRS moves above the $25.50 level, our first upside Fibonacci price target and clears the $24.25 previous peak set in April 2019, it would be a very clear indication that a risk trade in Real Estate is back in play.  Ideally, price holding above the $21.65 level would provide a very clear level of support negating any future price weakness below $21.50.

This weekly SRS chart highlights what we believe to be the optimal BUY ZONE and the upside price targets near $28 to $29.  Since the bottom in 2009-10, after the credit market crisis, we have not seen any substantial risk in the Real Estate market for over 8+ years.  Now, though, it is our opinion that this risk trade is very real and that technical trader should be aware of this potential move and what it means to protect assets and wealth.

If our research proves to be accurate and any future move by the US Fed will prompt a “rush to the exits” by home sellers, then there is really only one course of action left for us to consider.  Either the Fed will reduce rates, buying some at-risk sellers a bit of time before a rush to sell overwhelms the markets and prices begin a fast decline in an attempt to secure quick buyers; or the Fed will leave rates at current levels where at-risk sellers will continue to attempt to offload their homes to any willing buyers before declining prices and panicked sellers start the “race to the bottom” in terms of pricing.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Real Estate has already run through the price advance cycle and the price maturity cycle.  There is really only one cycle left to unfold at this point – the “price revaluation cycle”.  This is where the opportunity lies with our suggested SRS trade setup.

We believe this bottom in SRS will result in a few more weeks of trading near price support (above $20 and below $22.50) where traders will be able to acquire their positions.  The bigger move will happen as risk becomes more evident – very similar to what has recently happened in Gold. Once that risk is visible to traders/investors, the upside potentials ($28+ to $42+) won’t seem so illogical any longer.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these super cycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I urge you to visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Precious Metals Breakout Rally or Reversal Time?

We have a good pulse on the major markets and can profit during times when most others can’t which is why you should join my Wealth Trading Newsletter for index, metals, and energy trade alerts.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these super cycles are going to last years. These super cycles starting to take place will go into 2020 and beyond which we lay out in our new PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

I am going to give away and ship out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans listed below, and you will receive:

1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)

2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND 
GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!
Free Shipping!

Chris Vermeulen
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.