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Natural Gas Sets Up Bottom Pattern

In less than two weeks, our prediction that Natural Gas would move lower into our “basing zone”, between $2.00 and $2.20, has come true.  Natural Gas has fallen into our expected basing/bottoming zone and traders should be looking to target low price entries as the extended setup of this base takes place.

You can read our original research post regarding our Natural Gas analysis from June 10, 2019: NATURAL GAS MOVES INTO BASING ZONE

It is our belief that anytime Natural Gas falls below $2.20, or lower, traders should consider jumping into NG related ETFs or NG future as this bottoming zone will likely push NG back above $2.35~$2.40 fairly quickly.  Historically, any price move to levels closer to $2.00 have been very strong support for Natural Gas and this early basing pattern is setting up for an incredible opportunity for traders.

Ideally, we are expecting an upside the month of July to represent continue basing/bottoming in NG where we expect NG prices to rotate between $2.00 and $2.75.  There is a moderate change that NG prices may attempt a move above $2.75 after July 20.

We believe August will result in a sideways downward sloping price pattern that may last only through the first 10 to 15+ days of August.  The month of August is typically relatively muted in terms of price trend but includes greater price volatility – bigger price bar ranges.

The big breakout move will likely begin to happen in late August or early September.  September, October, and November are all historically strong months for NG.  September is the strongest month historically, October represents about half the upside strength of September and November represents, again, about half the upside strength of October.

Overall, this basing/bottoming pattern in NG is something skilled traders do not want to lose focus of.  The opportunity at these sub $2.25 levels is incredible if traders are able to time their entries and plan for the August/September upside price launch.  Looking back at historical price patterns, we could begin an upside price bias (a slower moving upside price trend) in early July.  After NG hammers our a bottom near this $2.00 level and settles near support, the new trend should become evident as an upside price bias before the August/September liftoff.

This Daily NG chart shows the RED and CYAN Fibonacci projection levels (near $2.18 and $2.28).  These levels will act as both a floor and ceiling for the future price as the basing pattern continues.  Any breakdown in price below $2.18 would be a great entry level for skilled traders.  There is a potential that price could drift a bit lower, possibly down to near $2.00 over the next few weeks, but we believe the basing/bottoming setup is beginning and support will be found above $2.00.

This Weekly NG chart shows a BLUE rectangle that highlights the support level identified by our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system.  Right now, this support level is between $2.10 and $2.30.  These Fibonacci downward price projection points on the Weekly chart represent expected levels/targets for downward price SUPPORT to form.  In other words, from the last price peak, price should move lower and target these Fibonacci projected targets where they will likely stall, bottom or attempt to find support – potentially setting up a new price “trough”.

We believe the next upside price move will happen between now and July 25th where NG will move from the $2.15 level to somewhere near $2.55 to $2.65.  After that move, we expect the price of NG to stall briefly before beginning another leg higher towards $3.00 or higher.  Our expectations of that last leg are that it may begin near mid-August and really begin to accelerate as we get closer/into September.

Remember, this is a very early set up – we still have 40+ days of expected basing/bottoming before any real upside potential is likely.  Now is the time to trade this as short term 4~8% price objectives taking very skilled trades near the low price levels and targeting quick profits.  As we enter July and move into August, we suggest traders switch from the short-term scalping mode and begin to consider the September, October & November historical price patterns to truly understand the upside potential.

Take a look at that huge move in 2018 over those same three months (September, October, November) in the chart above.  That move started from the $2.65 level and ran all the way up to near $5.00.  The same thing could happen again this year with price originating from a $2.00 basing level.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in the energy sector but in metals, and stock indexes and some of these super cycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand guide and charts. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, Nat Gas is oversold and showing signs of a bounce.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997 I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles, I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Take a look at my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Technical Analysis Shows Aug/Sept Market Top Pattern Should Form

We have been pouring over the data and currently believe our earlier prediction of a July/August 2019 market top should be revised to an Aug/Sept 2019 expected market top pattern.  The following research posts we authored recently suggested a top may form in July/Aug 2019 and believe this critical top formation would form at new all-time highs.  We still believe this is possible regarding the price predictions, yet we believe the price top will now form near the end of August or early September after an extended Pennant/Flag formation is completed.

Please review the following research posts by our team…

June 5, 2019: Fear Drives market Expectations: HERE

May 14, 2019: Trade Issues Will Drive Market Trends, Part II: HERE

March 31, 2019: Proprietary Cycles Predict July Turning Point For Stock Market: HERE

Using our proprietary price modeling tools and systems, believe the critical price peak in the US stock market will now happen between August 26 and September 20 (see the chart below).  A number of key factors are lining up to extend this topping pattern into August/September and the key component is the formation of the Pennant/Flag formation and the fact that this price pattern must complete before a breakout/breakdown move is possible.

An upside price bias will continue throughout the formation of the Pennant/Flag formation leading to a moderate price breakout where the S&P will briefly break through the $3000 price level, then stall – forming the Top pattern/rotation we are expecting.

A continued Capital Shift will drive prices higher over the next 45 to 60+ days where foreign capital will continue to chase the strong US Dollar and the strength of the US stock market.  The true critical price move, where our analysis will become even more important, happens after September 1, 2019 – where the Pennant Apex and a critical inflection point are set.

On June 5, 2019, we posted this VIX chart in the article listed above.  The US stock market will rotate higher in an upward price bias over the next 45+ days.  This will project the Pennant/Flag formation and set up the critical top pattern that we are expecting in late August or early September.  When you look at this chart of the VIX, below, consider that the upside price move in the VIX may be delayed by about 10 to 15 days based on our newest analysis.  We still believe the VIX expansion will happen as we are suggesting, we are altering the timeline of these predictions to support our newest research.

As we move closer to these critical dates, we’ll keep you informed of our expectations and what new information our predictive modeling systems are suggesting.  In the meantime, get ready to play some moderate price swings.  Don’t get caught on the short side of this move just yet.  We have no real confirmation that a large downside move will take place over the next 60+ days and these early shorts are going to feel a lot of pressure over the next 45 to 60+ days if the market moves higher.

This is one scenario of how the stock market may play out, we have a few others we are following with subscribers to our Wealth Building Newsletter with much more detail. Each day we share a pre-market video and show you where all the major markets are headed for the day, week and month ahead. The analysis is done on the futures market but we focus on trading ETFs for the indexes and commodities.

In fact, there are several super cycles starting to take place as we head into 2020 and beyond which Brad Matheny and layout in our new book: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com