Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive price modeling system is suggesting Crude Oil will likely continue to find resistance near $64 as a price ceiling and trend lower over the next 3 to 5 months – eventually breaking below the $40 price level near the end of 2019 or in early 2020.
Our research team believes this move could very well be contingent on a continued decline in global economic activity as well as our research suggesting that global currencies could be setting up for a breakdown event.
The USA and FED will do everything in their powers to keep the economy looking strong and to hold markets up like talking about rate cuts, but eventually the music will stop, but until then we need to be long and strong stocks and keep a close eye on leading indicators like small caps, oil, transportation and industrial sectors for early warning signs.
Please read the following research posts for more information:
Report #1: PART III – DEBT CRISIS TO BE REBORN IN 2020
Report #2: KING DOLLAR RIDES HIGHER CREATING PRESSURES ON FOREIGN ECONOMIES
Report #3: FEAR DRIVES MARKET EXPECTATIONS
We believe the breakdown in support for Crude Oil will coincide with a general perception of global economic weakness, foreign Central Bank posturing and the possibility that foreign currency weakness may push global demand for Oil much lower than current expectations.
The volatility increased suggested near the right side of this chart, in late 2019 and early 2020, are indicative of oil prices reaching a critical support level while attempting to re-balance supply/demand-side economic factors against historic price lows. This will likely become a period where global oil traders feel the need to try to push oil prices higher while supply/demand factors settle to establish a basis price level for future price trends.
IN CONCLUSION:
If our ADL predictive modeling is correct, we will see rotation between $47 and $64 over the next 3+ months before a breakdown in price hits in November 2019. This will be followed by two fairly narrow price range months (December 2019 and January 2020) where oil prices will tighten near $45 to $50. After that tightening, we believe an extremely volatile price move will happen in February through April 2020 that could see oil prices trade as low as $22 and as high as $51 over a two to three-month span.
As we’ve continued to state, 2019 and 2020 are going to include incredible opportunities for skilled technical traders and investors. Think about how a more like this in Oil and the global markets will reflect into the precious metals markets and the US Dollar?
Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter. You won’t want to miss this big move, folks. As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months – most traders/investors have simply not been looking for it.
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I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
I’M GIVING THIS GOLD BAR AWAY WITH 2-YEAR MEMBERSHIPSAND 1OZ SILVER ROUND TO 1 YEAR SUBSCRIBERS
On Tuesday, July 2, 2019, the price of Crude Oil fell over -4.5% on continued expectations of global economic weakness and supply gluts. We found this interview rather interesting because it attempts to suggest a narrative that ignores Iranian issues while pushing the supply side fundamental for the current price decline (Source: CNBC).
Back on May 21, 2019, we shared a post that is still very relevant today. The same price pattern is still in place and the same type of price action is working through the completion of an extended Pennant/Flag formation. We suggest all our follower read this May 21 post to catch up to current market levels.
May 21, 2019, Technical Analysis Post:
GLOBAL ECONOMIC TENSIONS TRANSLATE INTO OIL VOLATILITY
Our researchers believe the technical reason why Crude Oil will continue lower is that price rotation has continued to support a downside price trend (Bearish) and that recent price resistance near the upper price channel has been rejected. This is a near perfect example of how the Fibonacci price theory works in real markets. The price must always attempt to establish “new price highs” or “new price lows” AT ALL TIMES.
After the deep price bottom in December 2018 near $42.50, oil price began an upside price move reaching just above our $66 target in late April 2019. Since then, another downside price move, which we called in our May 21 article, has driven oil prices to the $50.60 level. The current upside price move has recently retested the $60 resistance level and has pulled back to where we are today around $56 per barrel.
The price rejection and subsequent collapse in price on July 2 represents a clear rotation from the $60 price level. This failure to achieve a “higher high” price level ($60 is lower than the previous peak near $66) is a very clear indication that price MUST move lower in an attempt to establish a new “lower low” – near or below $50.60. This is how the Fibonacci price theory works.
We believe the last level of support for Oil is currently near $54.50. If this level is breached, we should see a very clear and quick price move lower targeting the $50.60 to $52.50 level where historical support resides. If that level fails, then a move to deeper historical support, near $42 if very likely.
Everything hinges on what Oil will do near the $54.50 level as the price continues to push lower from the recent peak near $60. Technical traders should be prepared for a bit of volatility over the next few days, but we believe the $54.50 level will be breached and that oil prices will continue to fall back towards the previous low price level near $50.60. If price fails to find support there, it really has only one target left to reach – that is the $42 level.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
In a previous article, we’ve shown you when the bottom was in for oil and stocks using our simple trade setup technique we use to identify entry and exit points for SP500 and Crude Oil – the 100% Fibonacci Extension Move. Now a month later we are providing more insight about oils potential drop to $42 if support is broken.
If the price drops below $52 would also create selling pressure as the price will have fallen below the 200-period historical moving average level. This technical condition would suggest price weakness to the masses and could result in additional selling pressure from traders exiting the oil market and potentially even short selling pressure.
Technical traders should have all eyes focused on the $54.50 price level right now. That is the key price level for any future move in Crude Oil as it is oversold currently and near support. Either way, up or down, Crude Oil continues to be an incredible opportunity for skilled technical traders.
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in crude oil, but real estate, metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these super cycles are even going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
I urge you to visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.
Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/60.png470850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-07-03 10:18:192019-07-03 10:18:19Crude Oil Pummeled, Where Is It Going Next?
On this first full weekend of Summer, we thought we would revisit our June 3, 2019 research post regarding a price pattern we love to trade – the Fibonacci Extension Bounce. This pattern sets up fairly often and the key to understanding this pattern and where these trades present real opportunity is in understanding the price dynamics behind these extensions. There are many instances where a Fibonacci price extension level will fail to promote a price bounce or rebound – and the price will just keep trending higher or lower past the extension level.
You can read our original research post here that clearly shows the bottom and our price targets.
Pay very close attention to the price levels and setups of the charts within that June 3, 2019 post. These setups are based on what we term a “100% Fibonacci Extension” from a previous trend reversal (peak or valley). The concept of this trading pattern is that the initial “impulse” price move sets up the first leg of a move. The retracement price move sets up the entry trigger for the second price leg – the next 100% price leg. The bottom, in this case, of the second 100% price leg sets up the “end of the move” and the potential for a price rotation in the opposite direction (likely resulting in a 38% to 61%+ retracement move).
In both instances of our June 3 calls, Crude Oil and the ES followed-through exactly as we predicted.
This first chart of Crude Oil shows how price bottomed near $52 and has recently advanced to levels near $58 after reaching the 100% Fibonacci extension levels. As this move higher extends to levels near the ORANGE moving average line on this chart and/or beyond the $58 to $59 target level we originally drew on our June 3rd charts, we would consider the upside price move “completed” based on our expectations. Yes, these types of trend could extend even further beyond our expectations. But our objective, as skilled traders, is to target and profit from the highest probability objectives – which was the move from $52 to near current price levels.
Follow the MAGENTA lines on these charts to see the Fibonacci Extension Pattern Setup. They are not hard to see on the charts when your eyes are trained to identify them.
This ES Daily chart shows the incredible +230 point rally that took place after our June 3 research post and after the Fibonacci extension pattern completed. It is really hard to miss the opportunity with a move like this. Again, follow the MAGENTA lines on this chart to see the Fibonacci Extension pattern setup.
At this point on the ES chart, the upside price rally has resulted in a 161% (roughly) upside price advance of the previous Fibonacci Extension pattern (last leg). This upside price leg range, 161%, suggests the upside price move should be close to ending soon. There is a possibility that price could advance to levels near 200% of the previous price leg range, but traders would be chasing a 25% further upside advance that may only be a low probability outcome.
Our advice for skilled traders is to pare back existing open long trade positions near these new all-time highs. The price advance appears to have reached levels that suggest the upside advance may be nearing an end point for the US stock markets. After such a big upside price leg, we have to be cautious near these new all-time highs that further price rotation may become a concern.
Oil, on the other hand, could continue to rally because it has only advanced 61% of the last Fibonacci 100% price leg. The global concerns regarding Iran and the US, as well as global economic concerns, could push Oil back up to the $60 to $62 level before reaching a peak.
Over the past 21+ months, we’ve highlighted some of the best tools and techniques we use to find great trading signals. This one technique, the Fibonacci 100% Price Expansion Leg, is just one of the tools we use to find trades and targets for our trade alerts for members.
The more one understands how price works and how the markets operate as a Symphony of price actions, one can find opportunities for great trades almost all the time. Skill and experience make the difference when deciding when to trade and what to trade and that’s what we provide.
More eye opening charts on currencies and gold here
We’ve now shown you two different price setups using Fibonacci price theory and the only thing we have to do is wait for a technical price confirmation before finding our entry trade. We’ll see how this plays out over the next few days and weeks. Remember, we are not proposing these as “major price bottoms”. They are “upside pullback trades” (bounces) at this point. A bullish price pullback in a downtrend.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/5.png470850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-06-24 10:34:572019-06-24 10:34:57How To Time Market Tops and Bottoms
As we’ve been warning over the past few weeks and months, the current price rotation in the US stock market is very much related to the strength of the US Dollar and the continued Capital Shift that is taking place as trade issues and currency valuations drive investors into the US equity and debt markets as protection against risk. We talk about some of these new Super-Cycles starting and how we can take advantage of them in this new guide.
The US Dollar stalled today after a recent price decline from just above $98 to a current level near $96.60. Over the past 15+ months, the US Dollar has risen from lows near $88 to highs near $98 – an 11.2% price rally. Meanwhile, many other foreign currencies have collapsed over this same span of time.
We believe the continued Capital Shift is driving further investment in the US stock market and debt market as a way to avoid the risks of further currency valuation declines and as a means of protecting wealth. Until this currency dynamic changes, we expect the strength of the US economy and US Dollar to continue to push investors into the US equity markets.
This being said, a very interesting dynamic is starting to set up. Gold and Silver have started to move higher while Oil, Natural Gas and other commodities are pushing lower. This type of activity in the commodity markets suggests some increased fear is driving investors away from speculating on increased global economic activities and pushing capital into expectations of a market top or deeper correction.
We’ve read recently where institutional traders have started initiating heavy short positions in the US markets and we believe these investors have jumped the gun a bit. We don’t see how or where a massive US market collapse is likely given the current strength in the US Dollar and the US economy. Yes, at some point this dynamic may shift and at some point, we may see a fairly deep correction of 12% to 18%. We believe that a top may happen in August or September 2019 – after the US stock market (DOW) reaches new all-time highs above $30k.
Right now, we believe the first rotation of our expected Pennant/Flag formation is starting to set up and we look for early signs in the DOW and TRAN charts.
This TRAN chart shows price rotation near the CYAN resistance level originating from the late April peak and spanning the early May price high. We believe this resistance level may play a key role in understanding how and when the next upside price leg begins to advance. We expect a downside price rotation to take place pushing the TRAN towards the $9600 level over the next few days/weeks.
This YM chart highlights a similar price pattern, but clearly illustrates one key difference – the New Price High. This fundamental element of Fibonacci price theory is that any attempt to break a past critical price high which results in a “new price high” designates the current trend as Bullish. Within Fibonacci price theory, price is always seeking to establish new price highs or new price lows – AT ALL TIMES. Therefore, a new price high or new price low is very significant.
The TRAN chart may continue to consolidate below the CYAN resistance level whereas the YM chart may attempt to push higher, with a bullish bias, setting up a Pennant/Flag formation as we expect. This would indicate that even though economic and transportation expectations are waning, the bullish bias in the YM suggests the Capital Shift factor is still pushing the US stock market upward.
Pay close attention to that big blue ellipse near the top of the chart. We drew that in place many months ago as an indicator of where we believe critical resistance is should the markets attempt to push higher and attempt new all-time highs.
We still believe this resistance is valid and as price rotates into the Pennant/Flag formation, we’ll extend this resistance forward – carrying the same slope and angle forward. If the YM is going to attempt a move to above $30k before our expected August/September 2019 top setup, it will have to push well above this resistance zone to accomplish this move.
Watch Gold and Silver over the next 3 to 4 weeks as any perceived weakness will push the precious metals higher still. We believe Gold will reach $1450 this summer and possibly higher before August as smart money rotates into the safe havens in anticipation of a bear market.
If you wanna become a technical trader with use and trade ETFs then be sure to join our Wealth Building Newsletter today and get our daily video analysis and swing trade alerts. In the past 17 months, our newsletter trade signals have generated 91% ROI for its subscribers, be sure to join before the markets start making new big moves and profit with us!
Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/29.png387700adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-06-13 11:38:152019-06-13 11:38:15US Stock Market Setting Up A Pennant Formation
In fact, there are several super cycles starting to take place as we head into 2020 and beyond which Brad Matheny and layout in our new book: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
If you wanna become a technical trader with use and trade ETFs then be sure to join our Wealth Building Newsletter today and get our daily video analysis and swing trade alerts. In the past 17 months, our newsletter trade signals have generated 91% ROI for its subscribers, be sure to join before the markets start making new big moves and profit with us!
Chris Vermeulen www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Closing out the first week in June 2019, the US stock market rallied hard from recent lows and prompted many traders/investors to rethink their future plans. At the same time, Gold and Silver began a decent price rally of their own while Oil found support just above $50. It certainly has been an interesting week for traders. One that was full of incredible opportunity as many symbols rotated 6 to 12% or more over the past 10+ days.
The fact that Oil is finding support above $50 while Gold and Silver continue to rally suggests that fear may be entering the metals market while Oil may have found a temporary price bottom near $50 to $51. Weakness in the US Dollar is also helping both Oil and Metals to push higher. Our recent research suggests that the US Dollar will find support near $95 indicates the US Dollar may fall a bit further – pushing Oil and Metals a bit higher.
The strength in the US stock market near the end of the week suggests fear of any US collapse or future economic concerns appears to be abated. It is very unlikely the US major indexes would rally as they have on any extreme fear of any major US calamity or economic concerns. A slightly weakening US Dollar and moderately strong US economic data continues to suggest the US stock market may continue to be the repository of funds for foreign investors for many years to come – or until something dramatic changes in the US.
It is rather simple to understand the capital process that is at work in the global economy at the moment; until foreign market valuations and expectations appear to be opportunistic for future returns, the US Dollar and the US stock market are the most likely targets for foreign investment and safety. Weakening currencies, weakening global economies and weakening commodity prices will push capital away from foreign markets and into safety. Safety will be found in the US markets, precious metals and possibly Crypto currencies. Anything that avoids deflationary risks and credit/debt risks.
This YM Weekly chart highlighting our Fibonacci price modeling system shows how dramatic the upside price reversal was by the end of last week. The closing candles created an Engulfing Bullish candlestick pattern which is typically quite bullish. The fact that price closed above the GREEN Fibonacci trigger level is further indication that a renewed price rally may begin soon. Support near $24,000 appears to be quite strong and any further downside price risk must first break this level. As long as support holds and price continues an upside bias, there is a very strong potential for a move to above $28,000 in the works.
This NQ chart highlights a similar price pattern and suggests the NQ needs to climb above $7600 before a true rally can begin. Ultimately, the upside targets for this move are near $8500 or higher based on current price rotation. Support near $6800 is critical – so price must stay above this level for any future rally to continue.
We authored a VIX/Volatility article just a few days ago that highlighted our believe that the VIX would trade lower, within a sideways price channel till near the end of July or August 2019 – then begin another VIX Spike move upward. This coincides with the current research we are seeing where the US stock market will likely continue to push higher, very possibly setting new all-time highs again, before any real risk of any downside price collapse happens.
Follow our research and don’t miss these opportunities. We’ve been warning our followers for months that 2019 and 2020 are going to be incredible years for skilled traders. These recent 10 to 20% moves in Gold, Silver, Oil and many ETFs are just the beginning. Our research team and trading team are ready to help you find and execute for better success.
Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/21.png387700adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-06-10 10:26:172019-06-10 10:26:17US Markets Rally Hard – Could Another Big Upside Leg Begin?
We believe the current price rotation is just the beginning of something much bigger. Over the past 16+ months, we’ve been calling these tops and bottoms many months in advance. In February/March 2018, we called the bottom and initiated a call that the US stock market would rally to establish new all-time highs. Very few believed us at that time, but the markets did exactly what we predicted. In September 2018, we called for the markets to experience weakness, pause after a quick downturn, then establish an “ultimate bottom” near November 2018 before rallying back to near all-time highs again. At that time, everyone was betting the new market crash had taken over Wall Street and we were really the only ones suggesting the US stock market would rally back from the December 2018 lows. Guess what happened? The markets did exactly what we predicted and went on to hit new highs months later.
We’ve recently called the precious metals move perfectly with our originating research being done in October 2018. We called the Oil downturn in 2018 as well as the rally starting near December 2018. Now, we are going to share with you some incredible market insights and help you prepare for what will likely become the most frustrating next six months of trading for everyone.
Why is it going to be frustrating? Because everyone has already made up their minds as to what they expect to happen in the markets and WHY. We read a report today from an analyst that suggested he “moved into a defensive position and initiated positions in Inverse ETFs and Put Options”. Probably a smart move if he timed it right. What he’s going to do over the next 6 months will either make him a king or a pauper.
The fact is that the US stock market has initiated a very moderate downside price rotation recently and multiple levels of support must be breached before we could consider any of the recent downside pricing pressure as a “major trend reversal”. We believe many of these analysts are hyperventilating with regards to this move and seeing what they want to see from it – THE BEAR MARKET.
At this time, we do not agree with this narrative. Yes, the US stock market is under pricing pressure. The US/China trade deal is far from completed and the new US/Mexico tariffs are sure to roil the markets. Europe has just completed EU elections and must continue to navigate the hard questions of future management and opportunity with a BREXIT hanging over everyone’s heads. The Prime Minister of Malaysia is calling for a new “gold backed SE Asian currency” to help prevent the wild currency valuations as Malaysia saw in the mid-1990s. The US Presidential election cycle is just 15 months away and it is sure to be a blood-bath in some ways.
Could it be the start of the bear market?? Maybe, but our research suggests otherwise.
Our research suggests there is still another chance that the US stock market could bottom after these recent lows find support and rally back to near all-time highs again. Be cautious about how we stated this… “could bottom after these recent lows find support and rally back to near all-time highs again” does not mean “rally beyond recent highs” or “another leg to the upside will take place”. It means that we believe the current support will prompt a brief price rally back to “near all-time highs” before the end of August 2019.
This Weekly ES chart highlights the support levels we are watching and the peak zone near $2961. We believe the current support levels will attempt to provide a floor for price above $2630 and will prompt an upside price channel that will likely see price climb higher from recent lows.
The bottom line here for the broad stock market is that we should see bounce over the next couple weeks, then we follow the market higher with a big rally or short a collapse in price.
This chart is a little noisy with analysis and our custom indicator lines but it shows key analysis levels. The same type of setup is also taking place in the NQ – although we believe the NQ may have a bit further downside price risk than the ES or YM at the moment. We believe the support levels near $6800 and $6400 will act as a price floor and attempt to drive price moderately higher over the next 25 to 45 days. We believe the NQ will come under increased price pressure because of a capital rotation away from risk in Technology and future risk factors.
The YM is setting up very similar to the ES. Very clear support and the current price level is still relatively bullish compared to the two most recent bigger downside price moves. The idea that analysts could call this “The Big One” with little to know price confirmation is very confusing. We believe support above $23,400 will likely hold and price will begin a moderate upside price move (within a channel/pennant formation) over the next 25 to 40+ days in the YM.
One very clear exception to this analysis would be a very clear price breakdown below the lowest support level while attempting to target the December 2018 lows. Should this happen over the next 30 to 60 days without any sign of the support rotation and upward price channel we are expecting, then we would consider this analysis to have failed and we could be looking at a much bigger downside price move in the US stock markets. At this point, we don’t believe this will happen UNLESS some massive US or foreign crisis event unfolds over the next 30 to 60+ days.
We believe a shift in the “Capital Shift” process we have been discussing for the past 2+ years is still taking place. This is a “risk off” move prompted by a renewed FEAR level and currency price trends over the past 6+ months.
This currency chart clearly shows everyone is selling their currency and moving into what they believe is the safest currency which is the USD.
We believe Capital Shift process will go through a weakening process while fear drives investors out of high performing assets. This process will likely shift back towards searching for undervalued US equities as global investors seek new opportunities after these support levels prompt a base. The hunt to find returns will eventually lead everyone back into the US stock market as there is too much turmoil in the global markets currently.
If you missed this move, sit back and wait for these support levels to settle and then look for new trade opportunities. There will be lots of time to get into the BIG SHORT TRADE when it finally sets up and confirms.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/9.png5871003adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-06-04 12:20:202019-06-04 12:20:20Second Half of 2019 – Expect The Unexpected
We want to take a moment to point out that a Fibonacci 100% price move setup may prompt an upside price swing over the next few days and weeks. Many traders fail to identify this setup and get caught up in the current price trend. This happens because we lose focus on the fact that price always moves in segments or legs – from one peak or trough to another peak or trough. The process of creating these segments or legs is usually structured in these types of Fibonacci price increment, and Fib targets I have personally found to be the most accurate for spotting profit taking and turning points.
We provide two very clear examples of this type of setup and how it has worked in the past. We urge all traders to understand there are many examples of larger Fibonacci price expansion legs throughout history. These examples of the 100% Fibonacci price leg are unique instances of price movement and, after confirmation of a base/reversal, can become very valid trading signals.
This first example is the ES (E-Mini S&P Futures). You can see from this chart the earlier examples of the 100% Fibonacci price legs working in the October 2018 downward price move. The current downward price legs have set up a perfect 100% Fibonacci price expansion leg and we believe support may form near $2732.
We would normally wait for some type of price confirmation that this level is going to act as support – for example, a solid reversal bar or Japanese Candlestick price pattern. After confirmation is achieved, a price rotation equal to 60% to 95% of the last downward price leg can be expected.
This next example shows Crude Oil and the most recent downward two Fibonacci Price Legs. The first resulted in a very quick upside price rotation (highlighted by the green arrow near May 20). The second downside Fibonacci Price Leg just ended near $53.30.
It is our belief that Oil will find support near this $53.30 level and rally back above $56 from these lows. The only thing we are waiting for is some type of technical price confirmation of this bottom setup and we can expect a 4% to 8% upside price swing in Crude Oil.
Over the past 21+ months, we’ve highlighted some of the best tools and techniques we use to find great trading signals. This one technique, the Fibonacci 100% Price Expansion Leg, is just one of the tools we use to find trades and targets for our trade alerts for members.
The more one understands how price works and how the markets operate as a Symphony of price actions, one can find opportunities for great trades almost all the time. Skill and experience make the difference when deciding when to trade and what to trade and that’s what we provide.
More eye opening charts on currencies and gold here
We’ve now shown you two different price setups using Fibonacci price theory and the only thing we have to do is wait for a technical price confirmation before finding our entry trade. We’ll see how this plays out over the next few days and weeks. Remember, we are not proposing these as “major price bottoms”. They are “upside pullback trades” (bounces) at this point. A bullish price pullback in a downtrend.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/6.png623888adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-06-03 20:42:582019-06-03 20:47:25Fibonacci Support May Signal Bounce in Oil & Equities
I have been pouring over the longer term charts as we’ve started to see Oil and Gold move in directions that would indicate increased fear throughout the global markets while a contraction in economic activity/oil prices appears to be setting up for another big move. The objective is to attempt to identify longer-term volatility expectations and price targets. To accomplish this task, we use our Adaptive Fibonacci predictive modeling utility on 3 Week charts because they provide a unique look at price activity and are a bit more reactive to shorter-term price activity than Monthly price bars.
We found some very interesting components by reviewing these charts of the ES, NQ, YM, and CL. We believe we are setting up a 2~4+ week sideways price rotation in the US stock market as price attempts to consolidate within this range before a broader breakout/breakdown move could happen. Just as we predicted many months ago, the July 2019 price peak we suggested could form appears to be setting up with a sideways pennant/flag formation as investors digest the economic and global trade war news data.
Eventually, the price will make a move in an attempt to break this sideways price channel and our predictive modeling solutions can help us to understand how these price setups will playing out. Let’s get into the charts and research.
As we start to pull apart the data from these charts, we urge you to pay attention to two things – the range of the current Bullish & Bearish Fibonacci Price Trigger levels and current price rotations of price peaks and troughs over the past 40 to 60 bars. It is very important to understand and attempt to use the “new price high” and “new price low” Fibonacci price theory that we keep talking about in our articles.
This first chart is the ES 3-Week chart highlighting the range between the Fibonacci Bullish and Bearish Price Trigger Levels (highlighted in light-CYAN). It is important to understand why the current bearish price trigger level is so far below current price levels. The Adaptive Fibonacci modeling system adjusts trigger levels based on recent price activity and price volatility to attempt to identify when the price is congesting in a sideways price trend or trending upward or downward. When price congests in a sideways form, the Adaptive Fibonacci modeling tool identifies this and determines that price would need to move to new levels in order to qualify for a new bullish or bearish price trigger. In this case, it is suggesting that price would need to fall below $2014 before this 3-Week chart would qualify the move as a “new bearish trend”.
That is a big move from current levels. It totals more than -750 points – a -27.5% price decline.
Currently, as long as the ES price stays above the $2633 level, the Fibonacci predictive modeling system is still suggesting the Bullish trend is intact and should continue.
This NQ 3-Week chart is setup in a similar manner to the ES chart. Although the Fibonacci volatility range on the NQ chart is much more narrow than the ES chart, the Fibonacci modeling system is still suggesting that the current trend is still Bullish and the key levels for the triggers are $6792 for the Bearish Trigger level and $6556 for the Bullish Trigger level.
Because of the narrow volatility range and because the Bearish trigger level is above the Bullish trigger level, we believe a price rotation where the price stays above $6800 is very likely over the next few weeks. Obviously, should price break below the Bearish Trigger level, then we would begin to become concerned that a broader downside trend is being established and start to look at the Fibonacci downside price targets (near $5815 & $3900). Until that happens, expect sideways price rotation with a 250 to 500 point range on average (about 2x the Fibonacci volatility range).
The YM is really the key to understanding just how the markets are going to play out over the next few weeks and months. The extremely large Fibonacci volatility range on the YM chart highlights the potential for the wild sideways price rotation that we are expecting over the next few weeks and months. Remember, our analysis from many months ago suggests a price peak will likely form in July/August 2019 and prompt a broader downside price move after this peak completes. Our expectation that a current sideways price channel is setting up leads us to believe the apex of this sideways price channel may result in a very brief price rally (pushing prices back towards recent highs) before rolling over and starting a new downside price move to coincide with our July/Aug 2019 predictions.
One way or another, it appears the DOW/YM will be leading the way in terms of price volatility and rotation. The wide range between the Bullish and Bearish Fibonacci Price Trigger Levels is suggesting that price volatility is increasing and that the YM would have to move to levels above $29,750 or to levels below $18,875 before establishing any new price trends. The past Fibonacci trigger levels help us to understand key price levels as this future move takes place.
Past Fibonacci Trigger Price levels are $26,025 for a Bearish Price Trigger level and $24,770 for a Bullish Price Trigger Level. This means if the price is below $26,025 – we should expect a bearish price trend to continue and if the price is above $24,770 – we should expect a bullish price trend to continue. Yet, price is current BETWEEN both of these levels, so what should we expect right now? When the price is in between these levels, like now, we typically look for the last price rotation (peak or valley) and for the last level that was crossed (in this case the $26,025 Bearish level) and would conclude:
The trend is currently Bearish and the $26,025 level is key to maintaining this bearish price direction. Should price move back above this level and close above this Bearish Price Trigger Level, then we would consider the trend “moderately bullish” while we wait for a new Price Trigger Level Breach to setup.
Lastly, Crude Oil. We’ve been writing to all of our followers that we felt Oil was setting up for a price rotation many weeks ago. We warned that the $65 price level may be the end of the move and that the $55 to $50 levels are the likely downside targets. The volatility range is somewhat narrow and the last Trigger Level that was breached was the Bearish Trigger Level near $68.75. Therefore, we believe the recent downside price move, below the $60 Bullish Trigger level, results in a new Bearish price trend with immediate targets near or below $50. Ultimately, the $42.40 level may be the longer term downside price target – which would coincide with a broader commodities slowdown and global economic activity contraction.
So here is what you need to know to go into this weekend and for the next 4+ weeks.
Expect the US stock market to trade in a moderately volatile sideways price channel for the next 4+ weeks.
Expect the end of this price channel to result in a “false rally” move that may push prices towards recent highs before faltering and rotating back to the downside.
Expect this END of the sideways price channel to happen sometime near mid-July or early August 2019.
Expect Gold and Oil to continue to react as “fear measures” over the next few weeks/months as global traders reposition their assets throughout this rotation.
Expect a bigger price move near late July through September~October 2019 as this volatility move really begins to take root with equities.
Follow our research and learn how we can help you stay well ahead of these price moves. We’ve just highlighted what is likely to happen over the next 30 to 60 days in this research post. Want to know how we are going to trade these moves? Join our other members to see how we create success and keep our members ahead of these big moves. Also, if you wanted me to ship you free silver rounds with a subscription to this Wealth Trading Newsletter you better join today as this offer expires June 1st.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/33.png368700adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-05-31 23:47:412019-05-31 23:47:41Adaptive Price Modeling Suggests Big Rotation In US Dow Stocks
UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY: First, we typically see stocks sell-off and as the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” which is what has been happening.
So what does this mean? It means we should start to see money flow into the safe-haven assets like the Utility sector, bonds, and most importantly precious metals. I anticipated this and our XLU utilities ETF taken with members has already hit our first profit target, and our VIX ETF trade also hit out 15% profit target and we the balance of it is still up 25% as of yesterday.
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For May I am going to give away and ship out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans listed below, and you will receive:
1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
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I only have few silver rounds I’m giving away
so upgrade or join now before its too late!
