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Long-Term Predictive Software Suggests Volatility May Surge

Over the past few weeks and months, a number of key economic data has continued to rally the US major indexes towards new highs, hopes of a US/China trade deal, a continued shift of capital in the US markets for protection and safety, and moderately strong US economic indicators and an earning season that appears to be moderately strong for Q3 of 2019.  The interesting facet of this move higher is that it is happening while trading volume has diminished dramatically in the SPY.  The futures contracts, the ES, YM, and NQ, continue to show relatively strong volume activity though.

Additionally, the overnight Repo markets have risen to the attention of many skilled analysts.  The concern is that the continued US Fed support of the overnight Repo facility may be a band-aid attempt to support a gaping credit crisis that is brewing just outside of view.  We’ve been doing quite a bit of research over the past few weeks regarding this Repo market support by the US Fed and we believe there is more to it than many believe.  We believe certain institutional banking firms may be at extreme risks related to derivative investments, shadow banking activities and/or global commodity/stock/currency/asset risk exposure.  The only answer we have for the extended Repo facility at increasing levels is that the institutional banking system is starting to “fray around the edges”.  Thus, we believe some larger credit risk problems may be just around the corner.

Our longer-term analysis continues to suggest that “all is fine – until it is not”.  Our belief that a capital shift that has been taking place over the past 5+ years where foreign capital continues to pour into the US markets is driving US stock market prices higher.  There is evidence that the capital shift into the US has slowed over the past 5+ months, yet one would not notice this by looking at these longer-term charts.  The point we are trying to make today is that price peaks near current highs have, historically, been met with strong resistance and collapsed by 8 to 15% on average.

SP500 INDEX – 2 MONTH LONG TERM CHART

This ES 2 Month chart highlights the resistance channel initiated near the 2003 lows (the lower YELLOW price channel line) and how that level has continued to act as moderate price resistance throughout most of 2017, 2018 and 2019.  We believe that price, at current levels, must either rally above this level and be capable of sustaining higher price levels (which would be supported by stronger forward guidance, earnings, economic data and/or investments), or will attempt to rotate lower from these current highs because price is simply unable to support/sustain higher price levels given the current global economic data.

When we attempt to rationalize the potential for price given the Repo issues, the current global economic data/news, the uncertainty of a US Presidential election cycle only 12 months away, the BREXIT deal hanging out in the near future and recent currency rotations, we believe is transitional shift is taking place in the markets in preparation for some type of surge in volatility associated with a very strong potential for extended price rotation.

NASDAQ 2 WEEK CHART – ADAPTIVE DYNAMIC LEARNING (ADL)

Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) price modeling system on this NQ 2-Week chart highlights what the ADL system suggests as a moderate price rotation setting up over the next 2 to 8+ weeks.  This data originates on August 5, 2019, and the alignment of the future predicted price levels (the DASHES) on this chart shows how accurate the ADL future price predictions have been over the past 3+ months.  Currently, the ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting a price reversion is about to take place in the NQ where price may fall 10 to 15% over the next 2 to 6+ weeks.  Then, the price will attempt to set up a momentum base and begin to move higher near the end of 2019 or early into 2020.

DOW 2 WEEK CHART – ADAPTIVE DYNAMIC LEARNING (ADL)

This YM 2-Week chart showing the same type of ADL predicted price levels suggests the YM may also see some type of price reversion, yet the size of this reversion is much smaller than the NQ.  The ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting the YM may rotate to levels near 26,000 or lower before finding immediate support and attempting a renewed rally back to levels near 27,000.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

What this suggests is that the NASDAQ and S&P500 may become much more volatile than the Dow Jones index over the next 2 to 6+ weeks.  Volatility may surge on a reversion move in the ES and NQ over the next few months while the YM remains rather calm comparatively.  Skilled traders must understand that subtle risks are starting to show throughout the global markets.  Foreign markets are starting to show signs of extended contraction – China and Asia in particular.  The situation in Europe and with the Euro are open to interpretation.  Our opinion is that risk levels have already exceeded a comfort level in this arena.

Should some event take place where the global banking system and/or Repo market continue to attempt to take up the slack – traders will become even more concerned that “something is broken” and could pull massive amounts of capital out of the markets fairly quickly.  If this happens when volume and volatility are very low, we have a situation where simple price exploration could present a real problem (think FLASH CRASH).

Skilled traders need to stay very cautious near these new highs.  We may see a surge in volatility over the next few weeks unless the markets are able to settle the concerns raised by analysts and others.  Headed into the end of 2019, into a contentious US presidential election cycle and with obvious signs that something may be breaking in the global banking system, now is the time to protect and prepare for the unknown.  We can’t make this any clearer – consider this a warning alert from www.TheTechnicalTraders.com.

US Markets “Roll Over” On Earnings and Economic Data At Channel Highs

As we near the end of October 2019, a very interesting price setup is taking place across many of the US market sectors recently.  We only have a total of about seven trading days left in October 2019 and the Financial Sector ETF is rolling over with what appears to be an Engulfing Bearish price pattern near price channel highs.  Additionally, the tech-heavy NASDAQ (NQ) has been mostly weaker compared to the ES and YM.

On September 30, 2019, we published this research post that highlighted why our predictive modeling systems suggested the S&P 500 and NASDAQ market sectors would become much more volatile than the Dow Jones Industrials: MODELING SUGGESTS BROAD MARKET ROTATION IN THE NQ & ES.

We believe this research is still very valid given the current price rotation near these price channel highs and given the potential that the Dow Jones stocks may become relatively stronger alternatives than the S&P 500 and NASDAQ sector stocks.

We believe a downside price rotation is setting up in the US and global stock markets and we believe the potential for large price moves exists in at-risk sectors like the Financials, Technology, Biotech, Energy, Services and other sectors that do not directly relate to what we feel are “essential consumer staples”.  The Dow Jones Industrials Index is full of companies that traditionally perform better in a consumer-based economic contraction for investors – which is why we believe the YM will present a very unique opportunity going forward for skilled traders.

FAS DAILY CHART, THE DIREXION FINANCIAL BULL ETF

This first FAS Daily Chart, the Direxion Financial BULL ETF highlights the price channel in YELLOW and highlights the recent price rotation near the $80 price level which constitutes a potential “new lower high” price rotation.  Our longer-term cycle analysis tools predict a downside price move initiating over the next 7 to 10 trading days.  We believe this new downside price trend could push price levels below the lower price channel level if this move is associated with external news or economic data that panics the markets.

IWM, RUSSELL 2000 ETF, DAILY CHART

This IWM, Russell 2000 ETF, Daily chart highlights an “island Doji top” formation that is setting up as a very unique price formation.  When Doji type candles form with a gap above the previous bars, this is often considered an “island top” type of formation.  Doji candles represent indecision and uncertainty.  They are often found near-critical top and bottom formation.  In this current formation, we believe the island top formation is a very clear warning that a major price top is setting up in the Mid-Caps which would also be considered a “new failed price high” formation.  Ultimately, the $144.50 level becomes critical support if price falls.

SSO, PROSHARES ULTRA S&P 500 ETF, DAILY CHART

This SSO, ProShares Ultra S&P 500 ETF, Daily chart highlights a similar price range setup.  Notice how all of these sectors have rotated into these ranges over the past few months – very similar to what happened in 2015/16 prior to the 2016 elections.  We believe the uncertainty related to global trade, global economics and the US political “circus” will continue to put pricing pressure on the US stock market and global markets.  We believe the inability to achieve “new price highs” throughout many sectors is a very clear warning that a larger downside price move, a type of price reversion, maybe setting up and we have been trying to warn our followers to be very cautious in taking unnecessary risks at this time while trading.

If our cycle research and predictive modeling systems are correct, we could be setting up for a downside price move that may act as a “true price exploration/reversion event” and potentially target levels that may be below the June 2019 lows.  If this move is associated with some external news event or global crisis event, we may see prices fall to levels below the December 2018 low price levels.

Overall, we urge all skilled technical traders to stay very cautious over the next few months.  Target solid trades that present very clear opportunities and properly position your trades to attempt to mitigate unknown risks.  This is not the time to go “all-in” on anything as the markets are far more capable of being irrational than you are likely to be able to handle the risks that are associated with a crazy market move.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I urge you visit my ETF Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Bar!

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.  Visit our web site to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

The Russell and Transportation Tell A Completely Different Story

We’ve been writing about the broader US stock market for many months – highlighting the Pennant/Flag formations that have continued to set up since early 2018.  Sometimes, the keys to really understanding what is transpiring behind the scenes in the US markets is to pay attention to various market segments and to consider applying some “outside the box” thinking. Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.

Our research team would like to fall back into price analysis using the Russell 2000 and the Transportation Index as “additional measures” that mirror the US major stock market in terms of price, volatility and future price targets.  The interesting facet of this type of analysis is that we can study any symbols we want and apply the different techniques, patterns and insight we learn to the total scope of the broader US stock market.  Thus, we can attempt to identify how and when certain price actions may become more intense or volatile while comparing how our predictive modeling systems and other tools share unique outcomes.

The Russell 2000 and the Transportation Index should be on every skilled traders radar – along with the three major US stock market symbols (ES: S&P500, YM: Dow Jones, and NQ: NASDAQ).

Additionally, all traders should follow the US Dollar, Gold, Silver, Oil, VIX and a handful of other key market sectors.  The old saying is “it is not a stock market – it is a market of stocks” is very true.

After the two day selloff, many traders still have questions about what lies ahead for the US markets.  We’re reading some reports of a “collapse taking place in the US stock market” and others, like our research team, believe this move in the markets is related more closely to a “move away from risk and a capital shift into safety”.  So which is it?  A collapse in the making or a sideways shift of capital into various safe-havens?  Let’s look at the charts.

WEEKLY RUSSELL 2000 (IWM) CHART

This Weekly Russell 2000 (IWM) chart highlights the rotation that has been in place throughout much of 2019.  The MAGENTA support level near 144.25 has proven to be intermediate support through multiple downside price cycles.  Ultimate Support resides at 125.00.  The current downside price move is still above the intermediate support level, although that could be breached over the next few trading days if price weakness resumes.  Therefore, until the 144.25 level is breached, we would presume that price may attempt to find support or form an intermediate basing pattern near recent lows.  Our ADL predictive modeling system suggests the YM (Dow Jones) may have already bottomed.  Thus, any continued weakness in the US stock market may result in a “wash-out” price low point near Ultimate Support.

TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE (IYT) WEEKLY CHART

This Transportation Average (IYT) Weekly chart shares a similar price setup as the Russell chart.  Again, we can see the recent downturn in price has only really moved back towards intermediate support near 174.25 and has yet to really attempt to breach into “new low price” territory.  Because of this, we can assume the downside moves in the ES, NQ, and YM which did result in “new low” price formations can’t be completely confirmed until the IWM and IYT also break into “new low” price formations.  Ultimately, the MAGENTA support levels are key to understanding if this is a “collapse” or a “shift in capital” as we suggest.

CUSTOM WEEKLY MARKET VOLATILITY INDEX

One of our favorite tools for understanding market price volatility and potential is our Custom Volatility Index.  This Weekly Custom Volatility Index chart highlights the current downside price rotation in historically rational terms.  Much like the two charts above, this chart shows the current price levels are still well above the previous two base/bottoming price levels – thus, we have little confirmation of a breakdown or collapse in prices (yet).  If the price of our Custom Volatility Index were to move lower and close below 8.00 on an END OF WEEK basis, then we would see a new “closing price” low that would immediately send up warning flags of a possible price collapse in the US stock markets.

Ultimately, without this type of price move happening, we are well within the standard deviation ranges of normal price rotation and strongly believe this rotation to be a shift in capital away from risk and towards value, safety, and Blue Chips.  Think of it like this, traders and investors are shifting their investments away from what has been “high flying” and moving their capital into more traditional blue chip/dividend-paying assets.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Of course, time will tell if our analysis and predictions are correct or not.  We urge you to also read our recent ADL predictions research post suggesting the ES and NQ will see broader price rotation and volatility than the YM in this recent post here.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Be sure to ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar and SPECIAL OFFER – CLICK HERE

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. This quick and simple to understand guide on trading with technical analysis will allow you to follow the markets closely and trade with it. Never be caught on the wrong side of the market again and suffer big losses. PDF guide: Technical Trading Mastery

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Predictive Modeling Suggests Broad Market Rotation In The NQ And ES

We wanted to share some information that suggests the NQ (NASDAQ) and ES (S&P 500) may engage in some relatively broad market rotation over the next few weeks. Also, to share that the YM (Dow Industrials) may stay relatively flat throughout this span of time.  Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is showing somewhere between 8% to 18% or more in price movement.

The fact that our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting the ES and NQ may rotate lower over the next few weeks and that the YM may not share the same levels of price volatility suggests that the Dow Industrials (35 stocks) may be viewed as a more solid economic base than the tech-heavy NASDAQ (100 symbols) and the various symbols within the S&P 500 (500 symbols).

It is suggesting that volatility may come from high multiple stocks or stocks that may reflect greater future economic weakness over the next 60+ days.  Almost as if a transition is taking place in the markets where investors are shifting capital away from risk and into value and dividend stocks.

WEEKLY S&P 500 (ES) CHART

This Weekly S&P 500 (ES) chart highlights the ADL predictive modeling results showing the ES should attempt higher price rotation this week, the week ending the month of September, then move dramatically lower over the next 5+ weeks.  Eventually, the support level above 2775 should hold as a lower price channel throughout this rotation.  By the end of October, it appears the price level of the ES will setup a base near or below 2900, then begin another rally above 3050.

WEEKLY NASDAQ (NQ) ADL CHART

This Weekly NQ ADL chart highlights the broader price rotation we expect to see in the NASDAQ.  The ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting the NQ will breakdown to levels below 7000 over the next 4+ weeks, potentially finding a bottom somewhere near 6500 sometime in early November.  This breakdown in price would suggest the high multiple technology stocks may fall our of favor with investors as earnings and operations expectations are revalued.  One thing to pay close attention to is that the ES chart appears to recover in November where the NQ chart recovery process is shown to be much lower in price level.  This suggests the NQ may contract by as much as 12% to 18%, or more, throughout this rotation and that the ES may begin a recovery before the NQ attempts to find a bottom.

DOW JONES (YM) WEEKLY ADL CHART

This YM Weekly ADL chart shows that the Dow Jones Industrial sector should stay relatively immune from the type of rotation the ADL is predicting for the ES and NQ charts. The ADL system is predicting that the YM price will attempt a moderate price rally over the next 8+ days, then move lower to near the 26,000 level.  At that point, price will rotate near the 26,000 level for about 4 to 5 weeks before attempting to really back above 27,500 again.  This rotation constitutes only a 4% to 5% price rotation where the ES and NQ price rotations appear to be 2x to 4x that amount.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

When taken in total context, these ADL predictions suggest the ES and NQ will come under some extreme pricing pressures over the next 20 to 30+ days and that the NQ is the most likely to see a much deeper price correction throughout this span of time.

The ES will likely move lower throughout this expected price correction, but not as much as the NQ may fall.  The YM will likely rotate a bit lower as well, possibly below 26,000 for a brief period of time.  Yet the YM appears to be the most stable in terms of price volatility over the next 60 days and throughout this expected price rotation.

We believe this volatility is related to the Pennant/Flag formation that continues to setup within the broader markets.  This Apex event will initiate this price rotation if price starts reverse lower below support. The shift of capital away from technology/risk is a natural price rotation as the markets setup for another attempt at new highs.  The NQ may not recover to near highs before the end of 2019 based on our ADL price modeling system.  It may be that the run in technology is shifting into the hunt for value, dividends, and safety.

Find out what bull and bear funds to own as we enter the final quarter of the year. This is your chance to make back what you have lost or to close out the year with oversized returns. Visit my ETF trade alert newsletter at http://www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Chris Vermeulen

Is This The Start Of The Next Bear Market?

Over the past few days, we’ve received hundreds of emails from our followers and members asking if this is the big breakdown that everyone has been expecting in the markets.  Yes, we’ve warned that it will likely happen before the end of 2019, but we’ve also been very clear that we believe an August 19, 2019 price peak will setup this move and our recent research suggest the NQ will rally to levels above 8200 before this peak in the US market sets up.  So, in order to help our members and followers understand what we believe is actually happening in the markets, we’ve put together this research post to help everyone better prepare for the next few weeks and months.

First things first, the foundation of Fibonacci price theory is that price will always attempt to seek out new price highs or new price lows – ALWAYS.  Many of the US major indexes have recently established new price highs in early July 2019.  Think of this as a fundamental element in price structure when attempting to apply Fibonacci price theory.

When any chart establishes a new price high (a high price that is above the previous rotational peak level in price), the trend is established as BULLISH and we would immediately expect, at some future time, that price will rotate lower attempting to validate that new price high or attempt to reach a new price low.  At certain times, external news can create “price over-reaction” events within the scope of price volatility.  I’m certain many of you have experienced these types of expanded price ranges that turn into a “wash-out” type of wide-range rotations in the markets.

The combination of the US Fed and the US/China trade talk failures, as well as the rally in Gold, Silver and the US Dollar, are all acting to create a hyper-active rotation in the markets with larger volatility.

We suggest that everyone read these earlier research posts to better understand what is really happening in the markets right now :

July 30, 2019: August 19 Market Top Prediction

July 31, 2019: US Fed is rattling the global markets – Part II

It is our opinion that the US Fed announcement followed immediately by the US/China trade talk failure created a “hyper-active” price rotation event that will likely turn into a short-term buying opportunity.  Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is suggesting the NQ will attempt to target levels above 8200 before the August 19, 2019 peak sets up.  Therefore, it is still our belief that the markets are setting up a unique “price anomaly” with this current downside price rotation and that a move higher is in the works before the bigger downside price rotation actually begins.

This Daily NQ chart highlights the support level near 7600 that was set up by the June 2019 price rotation.  Yes, the price has moved lower into this zone, but we believe this zone will act as a moderate support level and that price will rotate higher early in the week of August 5, 2019.

This Weekly NQ chart highlights our Fibonacci price modeling system and shows the “Critical Support” level from the October 2018 highs as well as the Bullish/Bearish trigger levels (the RED/GREEN lines near the right edge of the chart) that constitute confirmed price rotations.  At this time, the current BEARISH trigger levels are near 7540 and the NQ is still 140 points above this level.

NEXT MOVES FOR GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused on gold miners and the SP 500 index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

We believe this current downside price move is setting up to become an over-reaction price swing that will likely result in a very short-term buying opportunity for skilled technical traders.  Failure to reach levels below 7400 on the NQ would be a very strong indication that this is a “failed new price low rotation” on the Weekly chart.  And, as Fibonacci price theory suggests, price must always attempt to establish a new price high or new price low – at all times.  Thus, a failure to establish a new price low on this weekly chart would mean it MUST rotate higher to attempt to establish a new price high.  8200+, here we come.

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where each commodity and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been set up for this move for many months.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

August 19 Price Peak Prediction Is Confirmed By Our ADL Predictive System

Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive price modeling system is one of the most unique and incredible predictive price utilities anyone has ever seen.

Over the past 24+ months, the ADL system has been able to call nearly every market rotation in the US major indexes (the ES, NQ, and YM) as well as our incredible call in Gold from October 2018 till now.  There is really nothing on the planet that can make accurate predictions for future price activity like our ADL predictive modeling tool.

Weekly chart of the NQ – NASDAQ

This Weekly chart of the NQ (NASDAQ futures) highlights the ADL predictive modeling systems results from a price peak in late April 2019.  The results consist of 52 unique price instances that make up the future predictive price levels.  This prediction suggested that price would fall to levels near $7200 by May 27, 2019, then rally from that date to a peak level near August 19, 2019.  This new August 19 peak level will likely be near $8500 – nearly +500 pts from the current price level.

Traders that have setup short positions may feel quite a bit of pressure over the next 4+ weeks as this move higher extends to align with our ADL predictive modeling system.  Overall, we believe a volatile price period in the markets may extend near this August 19 prediction where price volatility will increase and a potential for a downside price rotation may occur.

Additional ADL predictive results suggest a downside potential for price to levels near $7200 as volatility increases near August 19, 2019.  These predictions are suggesting that the key date, August 19, 2019, will likely be the peak in the price for a period of time.  The downside predictions where the price is suggested to reach $7200 indicates the range of potential volatility after the August 19 peak.

We have been suggesting that traders continue to scale back long positions before this peak is reached.  Ideally, we urge traders to pull some profits off the table and to prepare for this potential rotation in price as well as to prepare for increased volatility near or after August 19, 2019.  Our extended research suggests deeper support is found near $6700 and we believe a volatility increase could drive prices towards these levels in a reversion price rotation.

As of right now, the most logical expectation for the price is for a continued upside price bias lasting 3 to 4 more weeks reaching a price peak near August 19, 2019 – just as we originally predicted. The Fed rate cut we just talked about could be what spurs the market on for this final exhaustion rally. As we near that critical date, we expect to see increased volatility throughout the global stock market and we would expect the VIX to begin a spike move higher.

Currently, an ADL price anomaly is setting up that may prompt a quick downside move on or after the August 19 date.  It is because of this price anomaly setup that we are suggesting the bottom for the price could be anywhere between $6500 and $7200 (ADL predicted levels).  In other words, get ready for some increased volatility and a very strong potential for a price reversion to unfold.

We have seen some really strange price action in small-cap stocks this week which I will cover shortly as well, so stay tuned!

CRUCIAL WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where each commodity and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

(Part II) Us Stocks Seem To Be Following Our Predictions – Get Ready

In the first part of this multi-part technology sector research post, we highlighted our previous research and predictive modeling result that suggest the US and global stock markets are poised for a peak/roll-over within the next 30+ days.  Our predictive modeling systems and cycle analysis tools are pointing to August 19, 2019, critical inflection date that we believe will become the “breakdown date” for this next big move to the downside.

Part of our effort to help skilled technical traders is to provide research posts, like these, that highlight trade setups and allow our followers to understand the type of trading opportunities that are present for them to consider in the future.  We believe the next 30+ days will prove our predictions are accurate and that the US/Global stock markets will roll-over into a new bearish trend – likely breaking downward near August 19, 2019.

With this in mind, Part II will continue to explore trade setups and opportunities related to our belief that the NQ/Technology Sector will become one of the biggest rotations when this move happens.

NQ/TECS price prediction

Our downside NQ price prediction supports a hedging trade in TECS for skilled technical traders.  If our predictions are accurate, then the risk levels for a strategic trade in TECS are only about 10% to 15% from current price levels and the upside profit potential is 12% to 35% (or more).  We are actively seeking an entry price near recent lows in TECS (near $11 or lower) over the next 2+ weeks as we watch the US stock market continue to attempt to push to new highs.

TNA, Small Cap Bull ETF

The TNA, Small Cap Bull ETF, is often a leader for the US major markets.  This Weekly chart highlights the weakness that is found in the Small Caps compared to the NQ chart above.  While the NQ chart has continued to push higher, the TNA chart has rolled-over and has weakened substantially from the October to December 2018 rotation.  It is our belief that the continued price weakness in the Small Caps will provide a leading price confirmation of the US major markets price rotation downward over the next few weeks and months.

We also believe the Transportation Index (TRAN) will lead the markets lower over the next few weeks and months.  Skilled traders must learn to search for these market-leading triggers/signals to stay ahead of the next big price swings.

So, within this article, we’ve highlighted three incredible trading opportunities and setups for skilled technical traders.  Each one is aligned to a single event that may happen in the future and each one varies in the price level, scale, and scope for different skill levels of traders. The opportunities for these types of trades in 2019 and 2020 keep setting up over and over again.  We believe the next 2 to 3 years are going to continue to create incredible opportunities for us as technical traders. You can become a technical trader with us before Aug 1st if you ack now!

There are dozens of great trades setting up right now in preparation for the August 19 price peak/price rotation that we predicted months ago.  The markets are setting up for some really big swing trades and we urge all traders/investors to be prepared for these moves by joining my Wealth Building Newsletter

5 other crucial warning signs about the US markets topping and the pending gold and silver bull market

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where stocks are headed along with precious metals for the next 8-24 months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NQ Should Reach 8031 Before Topping

With earnings data starting to hit the markets and recent news that China’s economic activity levels shrank to levels not seen in nearly 30 years, we believe our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is showing us a target level in the NASDAQ (NQ) that will likely be reached within the next 7 to 10 days.  We believe once this target level is reached, the US stock market will immediately begin an extended topping formation with sideways price action and increased volatility) which will culminate in our August 19, 2019 setup date for a much deeper price correction.

At this time, traders should start to prepare for this topping event and prepare for price resistance to be found as the NQ nears this 8031 level – only 60 pts away.  If you are sitting on a bunch of profitable long trades, our suggestion would be to scale back 50% to 60% of these open positions and prepare for a top setup to begin within 7 to 10 days.  The volatility we expect to see over the next 30 days will likely be 2x or 3x current levels.

Nasdaq Daily Chart

This Daily NQ chart highlights the Fib Target Resistance level and shows our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system’s current downside price targets (7760, 7400 and 7265).  These downside price target will change as the new price peak is established near the 8031 price level.

Nasdaq Weekly Chart

This NQ weekly chart highlights the same suggested resistance level (the YELLOW LINE drawn near the recent highs) and highlights deeper Weekly Fibonacci downside price targets near 6950, 6000 and 5950.

Our expectations are that economic weakness and price rotation will set up and begin a downside price move on or near August 19, 2019, based on our cycle research.  We believe this move will initially target a -6 to -9% downside price move, then extend into a much deeper price decline ending near the start of 2020 or within Q1 of 2020.

See my current trend and trade signals for the SP500 index here.

Conclusion:

Our researchers believe traders should be actively scaling back existing long positions in preparation for this top setup.  Key psychological levels have already been reached and the minute the NQ breaks above 8000, the key Fibonacci target level and the key psychological level (8000) become critical elements for the market top formation.

Now is the time to plan and prepare for these incredible price swings in the markets.  The next 18-24 months are certain to present technical traders with countless opportunities for success with these bigger price moves.

Our recent calls in the markets have resulted in over 42% in total gains over the past 60 days.  Isn’t it time you learned how www.TheTechnicalTraders.com can help you find and time better trades?

BECOME A TECHNICAL TRADER AND PROFIT WITH US

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

Index Prediction System Is Telling Us A Very Different Story

On this day, celebrating fathers and all they do for families and their children, we thought we would share some really interesting research regarding the next six months trading expectations in the NASDAQ and what it means for your trading account.  One element of our research involves data mining and searching for historical price correlation models.  These types of elements help us identify when the price is acting normally or abnormally.

We like to focus on the NQ (NASDAQ) because its tech-heavy and is where a lot of the Capital Shift (money from other countries is flowing into as a safe/best asset class at this time).

Below, We are going to Geek-Out a little and sharing raw data values from one of our data mining utilities highlighting each month’s historical activity in the NQ.

Pay close attention to the “Total Monthly Sum” and the monthly NEG (negative) and POS (positive) values.  These values show the range of price activity over the past 20 years normalized for each month. Obviously, we can’t expect the markets to adhere to these normalized values, but we can gain insight from the data retrieved by this data mining tool.

To help you understand this data we’ll focus some brief analysis on the month of June, below. June has a total monthly NEG value of -1009 and a total monthly POS value of 1410.  Additionally, the NEG value is comprised of 9 months of data and the POS value is composed of 11 months of data.  Therefore, the relationship between NEG and POS months is roughly 1:1 – or about equal. Overall, the positive months outweigh the negative months by 401 points. The largest monthly positive and negative values are 492 and -189. This suggests the positive price aspect of these mined data points is about 2.3:1 respectively.

The conclusion we derive from this date is that June is moderately more positive based on historical price data then negative.  This data is derived from the NQ. Therefore the expectations of a positive 300 to 400 point move in the NQ for June would be in line with historical expectations.  Anything beyond that range should be considered a price anomaly. These types of price anomalies to happen fairly often but are difficult to predict.

As of today, the NQ has already moved upward by over 400 points since the end of May. This price advance equaling our expected data range would suggest that the upward price move in the NQ may be very close to ending.

=====[ June Monthly Analysis ]========================

– Largest Monthly POS : 492 NEG -189.25
– Total Monthly NEG : -1009 across 9 bars – Avg = -112.11
– Total Monthly POS : 1410 across 11 bars – Avg = 128.18
——————————————–
– Total Monthly Sum : 401 across 20 bars

Analysis for the month = 6
===================================================

As you scan through the rest of these data mining results, pay very close attention to the largest monthly ranges as well as the overall price bias described by the total monthly NEG and POS values.  For example, in July the monthly values are more narrow in range. Yet the total monthly NEG and POS values depict a broader range for price.

Additionally, the POS bars (13) compared to the NEG bars (6) describes a vastly different historical price relevance.  The possibility of an upside price bias in July is much stronger than what we determined four June.  The 13:6 ratio of upside to downside price bars in July converts into a nearly 2:1 upside price expectation versus a 1:1 ratio in June.  Because of this, we can determine that July will likely result in a positive upside price move of at least 150 to 250 points in the NQ before exhausting.

=====[ July Monthly Analysis ]========================

– Largest Monthly POS : 319.75 NEG -200
– Total Monthly NEG : -656 across 6 bars – Avg = -109.33
– Total Monthly POS : 1654 across 13 bars – Avg = 127.23
——————————————–
– Total Monthly Sum : 998 across 19 bars

Analysis for the month = 7
===================================================

Our data mining tool suggests that August may be much more volatile than July. The larger monthly total sum suggests a possible breakout move to the upside. The increases in total monthly values suggest volatility will also increase. Overall the combined July and August data points suggest rotation may end with a big move to the upside sometime in late August before a correction.

=====[ August Monthly Analysis ]========================

– Largest Monthly POS : 477 NEG -313.25
– Total Monthly NEG : -835.5 across 8 bars – Avg = -104.44
– Total Monthly POS : 1702.5 across 12 bars – Avg = 141.88
——————————————–
– Total Monthly Sum : 867 across 20 bars

Analysis for the month = 8
===================================================

September data points show an immediate reversal to the upside price bias. The data reporting from our data mining tool flips to the negative side fairly strong. Overall expectations are roughly 1:1 that a downside price move will dominate for September.

Our data mining utility suggests a downside price move of between -450 and -550 points.  If you’ve been following our research, you already know that we are predicting a moderately large downside reversal beginning in late August or September. It is our belief that the US stock markets will rotate downwards after a peak in price in August. We believe this downside move could last well into November, much like the downside move in 2018.

=====[ September Monthly Analysis ]========================

– Largest Monthly POS : 229 NEG -473
– Total Monthly NEG : -1460.25 across 10 bars – Avg = -146.03
– Total Monthly POS : 903.5 across 10 bars – Avg = 90.35
——————————————–
– Total Monthly Sum : -556.75 across 20 bars

Analysis for the month = 9
===================================================

Should our expectations play out in the market, the downside price move in September, October and possibly November, would result in a unique price anomaly setup near this price bottom.

As you can see from the data mining results, below, the last quarter (3 months) of the year typically results in upside price bias. Therefore, any deep downside price move after our expected peak in August will set up a very unique price anomaly pattern where skilled traders should be able to capture an incredible upside price run near the end of 2019.

=====[ October Monthly Analysis ]========================

– Largest Monthly POS : 480.25 NEG -679.75
– Total Monthly NEG : -1564.5 across 7 bars – Avg = -223.50
– Total Monthly POS : 2320.25 across 13 bars – Avg = 178.48
——————————————–
– Total Monthly Sum : 755.75 across 20 bars

Analysis for the month = 10
===================================================

=====[ November Monthly Analysis ]========================

– Largest Monthly POS : 316.5 NEG -768
– Total Monthly NEG : -1169 across 6 bars – Avg = -194.83
– Total Monthly POS : 1509 across 14 bars – Avg = 107.79
——————————————–
– Total Monthly Sum : 340 across 20 bars

Analysis for the month = 11
===================================================

Pay very close attention to the fact that December can be fairly mixed in terms of overall price bias and upside or downside price expectation.  With a 1:1 (equal price weighting) for both positive and negative price results and a monthly sum of only about 100 points, we would expect December to be moderately congested and flat.

=====[ December Monthly Analysis ]========================

– Largest Monthly POS : 782 NEG -616.25
– Total Monthly NEG : -1179.5 across 10 bars – Avg = -117.95
– Total Monthly POS : 1291.5 across 10 bars – Avg = 129.15
——————————————–
– Total Monthly Sum : 112 across 20 bars

Analysis for the month = 12
===================================================

And there you have it, our Father’s Day gift to all of you. These results from our proprietary data mining utility are providing you with a detailed map of what to expect in the NQ going forward through December 2019. This is only one aspect of our research team’s resources and unique capabilities that assist us in understanding what price will be doing in the future. There are many other utilities and trading indicator tools that we use to help confirm and validate our analysis.

We’ve included a chart of the S&P E-mini futures contract with a yellow line drawn across our predicted price modeling expectations starting from the end of 2017 until now. Pay very close attention to our expected price levels and the market price levels as time progressed forward. As you become more skilled in understanding how this data can be used to benefit your trading and deliver results, you’ll learn why our research team relies on our proprietary modeling tools and software so heavily.

We thought we might share a bit of specialized data with you on this Father’s Day so that you could use some of our proprietary information in your own research and analysis going forward.

Please remember, price action dictates everything. Even though we can model and data mine incredible information months or years into the future, everything comes down to what price is doing right now. If it confirms our analysis, then fantastic – our research may be right on the money.  If the price moves beyond our expectations and research, then we have to reevaluate our expectations in correlation with the data that we have to determine if we need to adjust our expectations going forward.

My point is, yes we can forecast, yes we have been correctly more times than not, but you cannot just go out and place trades based on this analysis alone because our analysis will change with the market.

To be blatantly honest, we don’t really care what the market does or when. We FOLLOW the market and trade on its coat tales, we don’t jump in front of it and guess/hope it will reverse as we are predicting.

Some of our articles/forecasts we share simply don’t happen and we get lots of flack from free followers of these articles. But what most followers fail to understand is that even when our predictions are DEAD WRONG, we and our subscribers make money in most cases. Again, we don’t trade the forecasts we just let them help guide us, and we trade with the dominant trend.

We have a good pulse on the major markets and can profit during times when most others can’t which is why you should join my Wealth Trading Newsletter for index, metals, and energy trade alerts.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these super cycles are going to last years. These super cycles starting to take place will go into 2020 and beyond which we lay out in our new PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

I am going to give away and ship out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans listed below, and you will receive:

1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)

2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND
GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!
Free Shipping!

Happy Fathers Day Guys!

Chris Vermeulen
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

ADL Predicts Expected Range Of The NASDAQ Before Breakout

Our advanced predictive modeling system is suggesting a defined range for the NQ over the next 30 to 60+ days before a bigger breakout move is expected.  If you’ve been following our research, you already know we have been predicting the NQ to move in a sideways pennant formation.  Our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting the NQ will stay within a defined price range over the next 30 to 60 days.

The upside price bias we are predicting is based on the ADL modeling systems suggestion that an upward price bias is inherent in the markets. You’ll see from the charts below that two different predictive results are driving our interpretation currently.

One result is predicting an upward price bias over the next 2 to 4 months whereas the second result is predicting a sideways price result over the same period of time.

Our conclusion is that the NQ will likely trade in a sideways pennant formation over this span of time before a breakout price move happens.

Our research continues to suggest a price peak may happen in August or September of 2019. We believe this peak aligns with our cycle research as well as aligns with our suggested pennant formation pattern. We believe the peak that forms near August or September will likely result in new all-time price highs. That breakout to new all-time highs will likely be the end of the move higher for now.   After our expected price peak sometime near September, we believe the markets will turn lower with a possible move of -10% to -15% or more.

This two-week bar chart of the NQ highlights our ADL predictive modeling results. You should be able to see the yellow dashed lines on this chart showing what we believe will be price support above 6800.  we’ve also drawn lines on the chart highlighting where the pennant formation price rotation will likely take place. Over the next few weeks, we expect the NQ price rotation to stay between 6800 and 7500.  This range presents an incredible opportunity for traders to trade this rotation.

This NQ monthly chart highlights to ADL predictive modeling results showing two separate ADL predictions. Our researchers use these results to create a combined consensus expectation for the markets. This particular NQ monthly chart suggests there is a strong upward price bias over the next 2 to 3 months. Combining this upward bias with our expectations of price support near 6800, we conclude that a sideways price rotation should be expected with a fairly volatile price range.

Please take notice of the upper yellow dashed lines of 8000. These ADL predictive levels suggest that the NQ will likely attempt a move above 8000 sometime in August or September of 2019, then move dramatically lower as price attempts to revert back to the 7500 level – or lower.

It is critically important for traders to understand the future price expectations of the NQ and the US stock market. Having knowledge of future price activity, like our ADL predictive modeling can produce, allows traders to plan for and execute strategic trading strategies.

Once the peak in August or September is reached, skilled traders should begin to prepare for a bigger downside price move which may last many months. Initially, our expectation is a move back to 7500. Our longer-term research and cycle analysis suggest prices may move much lower – possibly towards 6000 or lower.

We have a good pulse on the major markets and can profit during times when most others can’t which is why you should join my Wealth Trading Newsletter for index, metals, and energy trade alerts.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these super cycles are going to last years. These super cycles starting to take place will go into 2020 and beyond which we lay out in our new PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

Happy Trading!
Chris Vermeulen