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News and Emotions Aside, This Is Where Stocks and Metals Are Headed

If you follow the headline news, read multiple articles a day from different sources on the markets, and are human then you are likely underperforming the market in which you are trying to beat like gold, miners, the SP500 index or whatever it may be.

The information I talk about below and in this video should be a real eye opener for those have not seen technical analysis in action, just how clear the we can see what the stock market, bonds, metals, oil and more will do next. Even at a time like this when the markets are gyrating all over hte place from week to week, we can still gauge our risk and be a winner.

No matter where I go when someone asks me what I do for a living, the person asking has the same “Deer in the headlights” look on their face. I am a technical analyst and trade stocks and commodities for a living with zero external input other than what the price chart of an asset class has painted on the chart.

Most people have never heard of technical analysis for trading or investing, and those that have heard about it think its some type of VooDoo and holds little value. The reality is technical analysis outperforms most of those who trade based on news, earnings, economic data etc…

Why? because all those things are very random data points and unpredictable. If they are important big/smart/insider money has moved into position to take advantage of this before the information becomes public. This is why good news for stocks gets sold into once released for example.

I started trading stocks when I was 16 years old in high school and fall in love with reading charts. Now, 23 years later I have no doubt in my mind technical analysis and trading systems are the absolute best way to trade and invest for growth. Dont get me wrong I spent years digging through company perspectives, reports, press releases and a few years of doing that was almost enough to make me hate trading as it become more like a job and less profitable.

If you just want to cut to the point and know what and when to buy, take profits, and exit a position then technical analysis is what you seek!

HOW TO ANALYZE KEY MARKETS EVERY MORNING

The analysis presented below covers the SP500, Bond, Utilities, Gold, Silver, Oil, and even Bitcoin. This is the analysis I share very day before the opening bell to keep you up to date with current market trends, potentially explosive moves, and set you expectations so you do not become overly emotional and exit a trade early from fear, or excitement.


THIS HAPPENED LATER THAT SAME DAY – WASHOUT LOW

In the video above I talked about how the SP500 was setting critical support that day, and I did this before the opening bell at 9 am. We just take a look at what the market likes to do intraday with the price to shake traders out of their position and trigger their stop-loss orders just before a market reversal.

I live and die by these three rules for my technical trading

1. IDENTIFY TREND DIRECTION

Trends are more likely to continue then they are to reverse. Draw trend lines on the long-term and short-term charts.

2. FIND SUPPORT & RESISTANCE

Identify critical areas of support and resistance on the price charts. Calculate Fibonacci percent retracements, advancement levels, and other measured moves.

3. TIME CYCLES & SENTIMENT

Use cycle analysis, investor sentiment, volatility, panic selling, greed buying, and price patterns to form accurate price forecasts to use for trading. Opt-in to our free market trend forecast newsletter

REACHING THE CHARTS IS ONLY HALF THE EQUATION

Focus Just On The Charts and Ignore All Other Data/Opinions or else you’ll end up with analysis paralysis.

Traders contact me every day confused about which direction to trade. I can tell a couple things very quickly about their issues depending on how they state their problem or question, and its generally a simple fix, or answer that will get them back on track but analysis paralysis is one of the most common issues.

The second half the equation for trading success is a topic most traders turn a blind eye to because it seems confusing, and, or boring. Risk management is the key to long term success and a portfolio value that always goes up and to the right. Believe it or not, its super simple, takes seconds to figure out what position size you should take in any given stock or ETF trade.

In a future post, I am going to talk about how you can take half the financial risk while making 8x more profits. Stay Tuned!

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

IS THE OTHER SHOE ABOUT TO DROP WITH FED NEWS?

We’ve been watching the markets today and over the past few days after the Saudi Arabia attack and are surprised with the real lack of volatility in the US major markets – excluding the incredible move higher, then lower in Oil.  The real news appears to be something completely different than Oil right now.  Might it be the Fed Meeting?

You might remember our August 19th prediction, based on Super-Cycle research and patterns, that a breakdown in the global markets was about to take place?  This failed to validate because of external factors (positive news related to the US China Trade talk and other factors).  This didn’t completely invalidate the super-cycle pattern – it may have just delayed it a bit.

That super-cycle pattern initiated in 2013-2015 and concludes in 2019/2020.  This is one of the reasons why we believed the August 19 date was so important.  It aligned with our price cycle analysis and our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs.  We believed this was the date that we would learn the future of the markets and possibly start a bigger price breakdown.

It now appears that the foreign and US credit markets are starting to “freak out” and we may find out that the US Federal Reserve is rushing in to rescue the global markets (again) from their own creation.  The Repo Markets appear to be setting up a massive crisis event as rates skyrocket overnight.  See the article below from ZeroHedge.

Source : Zerohedge.com : “Nobody Knows What’s Going On”: Repo Market Freezes As Overnight Rate Hits All Time High Of 10%

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nobody-knows-whats-going-repo-market-freezes-overnight-rate-hits-all-time-high-10

Many analysts have discussed the US Dollar shortage in foreign markets that relates to global credit functions, sustainable trade functions and much more.  If the US Dollar shortage is reaching a critical point where foreign markets are unable to function properly and where Repo Rates are reflecting this crisis, we may be on the verge of a much bigger credit crisis event that we have imagined.

In our opinion, the scope and scale of this event depends on the September 17/18 US Fed meeting outcome and the tone of their message afterward.  If the Fed softens and injects capital into the global markets, we may see a bit of a reprieve – even though we may still see concerns weighing on the global markets.  If the Fed allows the card to fall where the may, so to say, we may see a bigger crisis event unfolding over the next 2 to 4 weeks – possibly much longer.

We believe this event is related to the Capital Shift that we have been discussing with you for more than 2+ years.  Capital always seeks out the safest and most secure returns in times of crisis.  Capital will also seek out opportunity at times – only when opportunity is relatively safe compared to risk.  This may be a time when opportunity is limited and the potential for risks/crisis are very elevated.  At those times, capital rushes away from risk and into safety in Cash, Metals and the safest instruments in the global markets – we believe that would likely be the US, Canadian, Japanese, British and Swiss markets/banking systems.

DOW (YM) DAILY CHART

This YM Daily chart highlights recent price ranges and shows us what a 1.5x and 2.5x volatility explosion could look like (see the Yellow and Blue highlighted ranges on the right end of the chart).  We believe the event that is setting up, with the US Fed meeting/announcements pending, could prompt a large volatility event over the next few days/weeks/months that may target these expanded volatility ranges.

MIDCAP INDEX DAILY CHART

This MC, MidCap, Daily chart highlights the same range expansions (1.5x and 2.5x) related to the recent price ranges in the MidCap Index.  Traders must take a moment to understand how an extremely volatile pricing event within these ranges could create dramatic profit or loss risks.  Imagine what would happen is the MC was suddenly targeting 1775 or 1620 on some type of crisis event – a 20% to 30% price decline.

DAILY TRANSPORTATION INDEX CHART

This Daily TRAN, Transportation Index, chart provides a similar picture of the type of volatility event that we believe could be setting up currently.  From current levels, the Transportation Index could rotate within a  +/- 15~25% price range if a new credit crisis event were to roil the markets.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

What can you do about it and how can you protect your investments from this event?  Learn to protect your assets by taking advantage of current high prices, pulling some profits, protect long trades, scale back your active trading and learn to size your trades appropriately.  If you have not already done so, strongly consider a position in precious metals (Gold or Silver) and move a larger portion of your portfolio into CASH.

The risks of another global credit crisis event appear to be starting to show very clear signs right now.  This event will likely be focused on foreign markets – not necessarily focused on the US markets.  We’ve been warning our followers about this type of event for many months now and we are alerting you to the fact that the Repo Markets appear to be screaming a very clear warning that foreign credit many be entering a crisis mode.

I urge you visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar!

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

G20 News Drive Big Moves In The Markets

This past weekend was full of exciting news and information.  Combine this with the strong US economic activity, the potential for some type of reprieve in the US/China trade issues and the historic meeting in North Korea between President Trump and Kim Jun Un, and the markets were set up for a big move at the open of trading in Tokyo.

The other big news originated from the Bank of International Settlements (BIS).  This Swiss-based central banking committee for “central banks” released an annual report on the progress of global central banks and the global economy last weekend.  They urged central banks not to chase easy money policies any longer and to focus on core policy changes, practical economic practices, and real leadership to help drive future growth.  They urged nations that easy money policies may help to show some types of immediate economic improvements – but that the risks of continuing such policies and lack of true economic reforms do nothing but pack risk into the back end of these efforts.

Recently we have been talking about the unit and very different opportunities in other assets like real estate and precious metals. Each metal is unique for market timing has its own personality. Our gold predictions are an eye-opener, why silver is awesome, and our most recent analysis on platinum is timely.

Our opinion is the US stock market is poised for a big move based on this news and continued economic activity.  If the US is able to settle trade issues in a manner that supports a strong future economic output and restore some balance to foreign trade, as well as continue to produce strong economic activity and output levels throughout the last 6+ months of this year, we could see a very strong price rally setting up into the end of 2019.  This could prompt a big move to the upside IF all things line up properly as we have suggested.

If things take an ugly turn over the next 2 to 4+ months, then we believe current support levels will likely act as a floor in the US stock market as the global economies struggle to find their “launch button” to jump-start their economies.  As the news stated, the economic factors of the globe are in a transitional state at the moment.  The US is the leading global economic engine and many other foreign economies must transition away from easy money policies and make hard choices to drive future growth.  Volatility will be KING over the next few months/years and the US Dollar will likely continue to strengthen as this transition plays out.

This ES chart highlights the resistance levels just below $3000 that we are watching as a critical ceiling in the ES.  As we have suggested, the news last weekend is driving upward price activity into this resistance area.  Traders should be cautiously bullish right now and should be keenly aware of risks that could prompt a breakdown in price.  Current support is near $2700.

Technology could be a huge winner if the US/China restore proper trade relations and establish a stronger future economic tie going forward.  In fact, the relief of a US/China trade deal could easily spill over into the DOW and Mid-Cap stocks as general trade and infrastructure deals will likely ramp-up quickly.  Our researchers believe the technology sector is the “canary in the coal mine” for the future of price related to trade and global economic activities.  We believe the technology sector is unfairly weighted in either direction based on the uncertainty of the global economy right now.

Resistance near $8000 is key.  Support near $6800 is also very important.  This leaves a $1400 range for price rotation within critical levels.  Our Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting even bigger price volatility ranges totaling over $3000 between target levels.  This suggests that volatility is still increasing and that traders should understand the risks of this volatility.  Currently, we are cautiously bullish as the NQ attempt to breach into new all-time high territory again.

Gold paused in the rally early in trading today, breaking back below $1400.  We have confidence in out research that Gold will continue to react to the Fear & Greed that is rampant throughout the globe at the moment and begin another upside move over the next 10+ days.  This move below $1400 is an excellent opportunity for traders to identify new Long entry positions for the future upside move.

Remember, the transition that is required over the next 2+ years will require many difficult decisions and a means of transitioning away from easy money policies towards more practical economic policies.  This will not be an easy task for many.  The fear/greed cycle will show up in precious metals early and quickly.  The next upside move should be towards levels above $1550 to $1650.

As we’ve been saying for many months, this is the time to be a skilled trader.  These volatility spikes, huge moves in the markets and incredible trade setups are fantastic opportunities for traders.  Join us in picking apart these moves, setups, and opportunities.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these super cycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I urge you to visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com