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US Markets “Roll Over” On Earnings and Economic Data At Channel Highs

As we near the end of October 2019, a very interesting price setup is taking place across many of the US market sectors recently.  We only have a total of about seven trading days left in October 2019 and the Financial Sector ETF is rolling over with what appears to be an Engulfing Bearish price pattern near price channel highs.  Additionally, the tech-heavy NASDAQ (NQ) has been mostly weaker compared to the ES and YM.

On September 30, 2019, we published this research post that highlighted why our predictive modeling systems suggested the S&P 500 and NASDAQ market sectors would become much more volatile than the Dow Jones Industrials: MODELING SUGGESTS BROAD MARKET ROTATION IN THE NQ & ES.

We believe this research is still very valid given the current price rotation near these price channel highs and given the potential that the Dow Jones stocks may become relatively stronger alternatives than the S&P 500 and NASDAQ sector stocks.

We believe a downside price rotation is setting up in the US and global stock markets and we believe the potential for large price moves exists in at-risk sectors like the Financials, Technology, Biotech, Energy, Services and other sectors that do not directly relate to what we feel are “essential consumer staples”.  The Dow Jones Industrials Index is full of companies that traditionally perform better in a consumer-based economic contraction for investors – which is why we believe the YM will present a very unique opportunity going forward for skilled traders.

FAS DAILY CHART, THE DIREXION FINANCIAL BULL ETF

This first FAS Daily Chart, the Direxion Financial BULL ETF highlights the price channel in YELLOW and highlights the recent price rotation near the $80 price level which constitutes a potential “new lower high” price rotation.  Our longer-term cycle analysis tools predict a downside price move initiating over the next 7 to 10 trading days.  We believe this new downside price trend could push price levels below the lower price channel level if this move is associated with external news or economic data that panics the markets.

IWM, RUSSELL 2000 ETF, DAILY CHART

This IWM, Russell 2000 ETF, Daily chart highlights an “island Doji top” formation that is setting up as a very unique price formation.  When Doji type candles form with a gap above the previous bars, this is often considered an “island top” type of formation.  Doji candles represent indecision and uncertainty.  They are often found near-critical top and bottom formation.  In this current formation, we believe the island top formation is a very clear warning that a major price top is setting up in the Mid-Caps which would also be considered a “new failed price high” formation.  Ultimately, the $144.50 level becomes critical support if price falls.

SSO, PROSHARES ULTRA S&P 500 ETF, DAILY CHART

This SSO, ProShares Ultra S&P 500 ETF, Daily chart highlights a similar price range setup.  Notice how all of these sectors have rotated into these ranges over the past few months – very similar to what happened in 2015/16 prior to the 2016 elections.  We believe the uncertainty related to global trade, global economics and the US political “circus” will continue to put pricing pressure on the US stock market and global markets.  We believe the inability to achieve “new price highs” throughout many sectors is a very clear warning that a larger downside price move, a type of price reversion, maybe setting up and we have been trying to warn our followers to be very cautious in taking unnecessary risks at this time while trading.

If our cycle research and predictive modeling systems are correct, we could be setting up for a downside price move that may act as a “true price exploration/reversion event” and potentially target levels that may be below the June 2019 lows.  If this move is associated with some external news event or global crisis event, we may see prices fall to levels below the December 2018 low price levels.

Overall, we urge all skilled technical traders to stay very cautious over the next few months.  Target solid trades that present very clear opportunities and properly position your trades to attempt to mitigate unknown risks.  This is not the time to go “all-in” on anything as the markets are far more capable of being irrational than you are likely to be able to handle the risks that are associated with a crazy market move.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I urge you visit my ETF Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Bar!

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.  Visit our web site to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

The Russell and Transportation Tell A Completely Different Story

We’ve been writing about the broader US stock market for many months – highlighting the Pennant/Flag formations that have continued to set up since early 2018.  Sometimes, the keys to really understanding what is transpiring behind the scenes in the US markets is to pay attention to various market segments and to consider applying some “outside the box” thinking. Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.

Our research team would like to fall back into price analysis using the Russell 2000 and the Transportation Index as “additional measures” that mirror the US major stock market in terms of price, volatility and future price targets.  The interesting facet of this type of analysis is that we can study any symbols we want and apply the different techniques, patterns and insight we learn to the total scope of the broader US stock market.  Thus, we can attempt to identify how and when certain price actions may become more intense or volatile while comparing how our predictive modeling systems and other tools share unique outcomes.

The Russell 2000 and the Transportation Index should be on every skilled traders radar – along with the three major US stock market symbols (ES: S&P500, YM: Dow Jones, and NQ: NASDAQ).

Additionally, all traders should follow the US Dollar, Gold, Silver, Oil, VIX and a handful of other key market sectors.  The old saying is “it is not a stock market – it is a market of stocks” is very true.

After the two day selloff, many traders still have questions about what lies ahead for the US markets.  We’re reading some reports of a “collapse taking place in the US stock market” and others, like our research team, believe this move in the markets is related more closely to a “move away from risk and a capital shift into safety”.  So which is it?  A collapse in the making or a sideways shift of capital into various safe-havens?  Let’s look at the charts.

WEEKLY RUSSELL 2000 (IWM) CHART

This Weekly Russell 2000 (IWM) chart highlights the rotation that has been in place throughout much of 2019.  The MAGENTA support level near 144.25 has proven to be intermediate support through multiple downside price cycles.  Ultimate Support resides at 125.00.  The current downside price move is still above the intermediate support level, although that could be breached over the next few trading days if price weakness resumes.  Therefore, until the 144.25 level is breached, we would presume that price may attempt to find support or form an intermediate basing pattern near recent lows.  Our ADL predictive modeling system suggests the YM (Dow Jones) may have already bottomed.  Thus, any continued weakness in the US stock market may result in a “wash-out” price low point near Ultimate Support.

TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE (IYT) WEEKLY CHART

This Transportation Average (IYT) Weekly chart shares a similar price setup as the Russell chart.  Again, we can see the recent downturn in price has only really moved back towards intermediate support near 174.25 and has yet to really attempt to breach into “new low price” territory.  Because of this, we can assume the downside moves in the ES, NQ, and YM which did result in “new low” price formations can’t be completely confirmed until the IWM and IYT also break into “new low” price formations.  Ultimately, the MAGENTA support levels are key to understanding if this is a “collapse” or a “shift in capital” as we suggest.

CUSTOM WEEKLY MARKET VOLATILITY INDEX

One of our favorite tools for understanding market price volatility and potential is our Custom Volatility Index.  This Weekly Custom Volatility Index chart highlights the current downside price rotation in historically rational terms.  Much like the two charts above, this chart shows the current price levels are still well above the previous two base/bottoming price levels – thus, we have little confirmation of a breakdown or collapse in prices (yet).  If the price of our Custom Volatility Index were to move lower and close below 8.00 on an END OF WEEK basis, then we would see a new “closing price” low that would immediately send up warning flags of a possible price collapse in the US stock markets.

Ultimately, without this type of price move happening, we are well within the standard deviation ranges of normal price rotation and strongly believe this rotation to be a shift in capital away from risk and towards value, safety, and Blue Chips.  Think of it like this, traders and investors are shifting their investments away from what has been “high flying” and moving their capital into more traditional blue chip/dividend-paying assets.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Of course, time will tell if our analysis and predictions are correct or not.  We urge you to also read our recent ADL predictions research post suggesting the ES and NQ will see broader price rotation and volatility than the YM in this recent post here.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Be sure to ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar and SPECIAL OFFER – CLICK HERE

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. This quick and simple to understand guide on trading with technical analysis will allow you to follow the markets closely and trade with it. Never be caught on the wrong side of the market again and suffer big losses. PDF guide: Technical Trading Mastery

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Dow Jones May Have Already Bottomed But SP500 & Nasdaq Have Further To Go

Have you been following our research?  Were you prepared for this move like we were?  Did you profit from this incredibly quick and volatile downside price move in the US markets?  What is it going to do to the foreign markets and what next?

Our team of researchers has been all over this setup many months before it happened.  In fact, we issued a research article on September 30 suggesting our predictive modeling system was warning of a big price rotation in the NQ and ES.  On September 21, we authored another research article suggesting a “massive price reversion may be days or weeks away”.  On September 7th, we authored yet another article suggesting “US STOCK MARKET HASN’T CLEARED THE STORM YET”

In case you missed our research, read and follow our work below.  While others may have completely missed this week’s breakdown move, we called it more than 30+ days ago and provided very clear and concise information for all of our followers to know what was about to breakdown in the markets.  Our morning coffee video analysis recap is the one thing… that single investment that’s going to turn into the greatest investment you’ve every made for your trading and investments.

If you find that you get analysis paralysis from reading too many articles from various news and trading sites feel free to do your self a favor just skip reading 5- 10 articles a day and being confused about what to do next get our Daily 8 Minute Technical Analysis of all the major markets and commodities. Forget the news and follow the markets with our proven technical analysis methods.

September 30, 2019: PREDICTIVE MODELING SUGGESTS BROAD MARKET ROTATION IN THE NQ & ES.

September 25, 2019: DEMOCRATS LAUNCH FORMAL IMPEACHMENT – WHAT SHOULD TRADERS EXPECT?

September 24, 2019: IS SILVER ABOUT TO BECOME THE SUPER-HERO OF PRECIOUS METALS?

September 23, 2019: IS THE TECHNOLOGY SECTOR ABOUT TO BREAK LOWER?

September 21, 2019: MASSIVE PRICE REVERSION MAY BE DAYS OR WEEKS AWAY

September 17, 2019: VIX TO BEGIN A NEW UPTREND AND WHAT IT MEANS

September 7, 2019: US STOCK MARKET HASN’T CLEARED THE STORM YET

August 30, 2019: TRANSPORTATION INDEX POINTS TO STOCK MARKETS WEAKNESS

August 13, 2019: GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS MOVE TO KEEP THE PARTY ROLLING – PART III

DOW JONES DAILY PRICE CHART

Now for the really good stuff, the YM may have already reached its lowest point and may begin to form a bottom near the 26000 levels.  This is the predicted downside price target level from our ADL predictive modeling system and it only took two big down-days to reach this level.  We really need to pay attention to how the markets react at this point and the YM will be key to understanding if the rest of the ADL predictions about the ES and NQ are likely to play out as we suggested.

DAILY SP500 INDEX

This ES chart highlights the downside price move to the 2880 level, our projected price target, and initial support level.  At this point, the ES has fallen, just like the YM, to levels that may prompt some price support.  We do believe the ES will fall further, possibly targeting the 2800 price level, before finding any real support.

Read the research articles listed in today’s research post.  We’ve been well ahead of this move the entire time and we called this move perfectly using our predictive modeling systems, Fibonacci price modeling systems, and other tools.  Our researchers have the ability to see into the future sometimes without predictive modeling tools.

In fact, we already have an idea of what will happen over the next 3 to 5+ years, but the price is our ultimate tool of choice.  We allow price to dictate what it wants to do, then use our predictive modeling tools to align price movement with our technical and predictive analysis – that is our secret, and you can’t get it anywhere else on the planet.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Be sure to ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar and SPECIAL OFFER TODAY ONLY – CLICK HERE

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. This quick and simple to understand guide on trading with technical analysis will allow you to follow the markets closely and trade with it. Never be caught on the wrong side of the market again and suffer big losses. PDF guide: Technical Trading Mastery

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

US Indexes Continue To Rally Within A Defined Range

This week ended with the S&P, Dow Industrials and Nasdaq stalling near recent highs.  From a technical perspective, both Thursday and Friday setup small range price bars (Doji candles or small Spinning Top type bars) after the upside price move on Wednesday.  These are indicative of price consolidation and indecision.

The news events that initiated this rally, nearly a week ago, continue to drive sentiment in the markets.  Yet the news from the ECB that new stimulus efforts would begin with $20 Billion Euros monthly invested in assets until they decide it is not required any longer suggests the EU is desperate to support extended growth and some renewed inflation.  This move by the EU pushed banks and the finance sector higher while the US stock market stalled near the end of the week.

At these lofty levels, almost all of our indicators and predictive modeling systems are suggesting the US stock markets are well within an overbought mode.  Of course, the markets can continue in this mode for extended periods of time as central banks and external efforts to support the asset/stock market continues, at some point investors/traders will recognize the imbalance in price/demand/supply as a fear of a price contraction.

We are very cautious that the market is setting up a lofty peak at this time.  It is important for traders and investors to understand the global situations that are setting up in the markets.  With precious metals moving higher, it is important to understand that FEAR and GREED are very active in the markets right now.  The continued capital shift that has been taking place where foreign investors are shifting assets into US and more mature economies trying to avoid risks and currency risks is still very active.  Yet the lofty prices in certain segments of the US stock markets means that this capital shift may take place where investment capital is shifted away from more risky US assets (high multiple speculative stocks) and into something that may appear to be undervalued and capable of growth.

The shifting focus of the global markets, the EU and the continued need for stimulus at this time is somewhat concerning.  Our view is to watch how the global markets play out and to maintain a cautious investment strategy.  We shifted into an extremely cautious mode back in February/March as the US market completed the October/December 2018 breakdown and precious metals started a move higher.  We continue to operate within this extremely cautious investment mode because we believe the foundation of the global markets are currently shifting and we don’t believe the stability of the markets is the same as it was after the February 2017 market collapse.

What do we believe is the result of this shift in our thinking?  This is very simple.  We are entering into the final 13+ months of the US presidential election cycle, the trade wars between the US and China continue to drag on with is muting economic activity, the EU continues to battle to find some growth/inflation while Great Britain attempts to work out a BREXIT deal as soon as possible.  Meanwhile, we continue to try to find opportunities in the markets with these extreme issues still pending.  We don’t believe any real clarity will happen until we near October/November 2020. Be sure to opt-in to our Free Trade Ideas Newsletter to get more updates.

This ES Weekly chart highlights the range-bound price rotation that currently dominates the US stock market.  Overall, the US stock market and the economy are much stronger than any other economy on the planet.  The risk factor is related to the fact that the capital shift which has been pushing asset prices higher as more and more capital flows in the US stock market may have reached a point of correction (headed into the US presidential election cycle).  As long as price stays within this range, we believe continued extreme volatility will continue.  Our Fibonacci system suggests price must close above 3178 to qualify as a new bullish trend and/or close below 2577 to confirm a new bearish trend.

This Transportation Index weekly chart shows a similar setup.  Although the Fibonacci price trigger levels are vastly different.  Price would have to climb above 11,475 to qualify for as a new bullish trend whereas it would only have to fall below 10,371 to qualify as a new bearish trend.  Given the past rotation levels, it is much more probable that price may rotate into a bearish trend before attempting to reach anywhere near the bullish price trigger level.

Our Custom volatility index suggests price has rallied last week well into the upper “weakness zone”.  This move suggests the upside price move may already be well into the overbought levels (again) and may begin to stall.  Traders need to be cautious near these level.  We continue to suggest that skilled technical traders should look to pull some profits from these lofty levels to protect cash/profits.  Any extreme volatility and/or a bigger price rotation could be disastrous for unprepared traders.

We are excited to see what happens early next week.  News will be a big factor – as it always is in this world.  Pay attention to how the markets open early this week and keep your eyes open for any crisis events (wars, bombings or other geopolitical news).  And get ready for some really big volatility to hit the global markets.

This is the time for skilled technical traders to really shine as these bigger moves roll on.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

So, if you believe in technical analysis, then this is the newsletter and market condition for you to really shine, especially with my trading indicators coming online.

Be prepared for these price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime 

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH SUBSCRIPTION!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

August 19 Price Peak Prediction Is Confirmed By Our ADL Predictive System

Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive price modeling system is one of the most unique and incredible predictive price utilities anyone has ever seen.

Over the past 24+ months, the ADL system has been able to call nearly every market rotation in the US major indexes (the ES, NQ, and YM) as well as our incredible call in Gold from October 2018 till now.  There is really nothing on the planet that can make accurate predictions for future price activity like our ADL predictive modeling tool.

Weekly chart of the NQ – NASDAQ

This Weekly chart of the NQ (NASDAQ futures) highlights the ADL predictive modeling systems results from a price peak in late April 2019.  The results consist of 52 unique price instances that make up the future predictive price levels.  This prediction suggested that price would fall to levels near $7200 by May 27, 2019, then rally from that date to a peak level near August 19, 2019.  This new August 19 peak level will likely be near $8500 – nearly +500 pts from the current price level.

Traders that have setup short positions may feel quite a bit of pressure over the next 4+ weeks as this move higher extends to align with our ADL predictive modeling system.  Overall, we believe a volatile price period in the markets may extend near this August 19 prediction where price volatility will increase and a potential for a downside price rotation may occur.

Additional ADL predictive results suggest a downside potential for price to levels near $7200 as volatility increases near August 19, 2019.  These predictions are suggesting that the key date, August 19, 2019, will likely be the peak in the price for a period of time.  The downside predictions where the price is suggested to reach $7200 indicates the range of potential volatility after the August 19 peak.

We have been suggesting that traders continue to scale back long positions before this peak is reached.  Ideally, we urge traders to pull some profits off the table and to prepare for this potential rotation in price as well as to prepare for increased volatility near or after August 19, 2019.  Our extended research suggests deeper support is found near $6700 and we believe a volatility increase could drive prices towards these levels in a reversion price rotation.

As of right now, the most logical expectation for the price is for a continued upside price bias lasting 3 to 4 more weeks reaching a price peak near August 19, 2019 – just as we originally predicted. The Fed rate cut we just talked about could be what spurs the market on for this final exhaustion rally. As we near that critical date, we expect to see increased volatility throughout the global stock market and we would expect the VIX to begin a spike move higher.

Currently, an ADL price anomaly is setting up that may prompt a quick downside move on or after the August 19 date.  It is because of this price anomaly setup that we are suggesting the bottom for the price could be anywhere between $6500 and $7200 (ADL predicted levels).  In other words, get ready for some increased volatility and a very strong potential for a price reversion to unfold.

We have seen some really strange price action in small-cap stocks this week which I will cover shortly as well, so stay tuned!

CRUCIAL WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where each commodity and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

US Fed Set To Rattle Global Markets – Part I

With less than 24 hours to go before the US Fed rate decision announcement, all eyes are watching how the US stock market is reacting to the possibility of a rate cut (25 basis point) that has been telegraphed by the US fed many weeks in advance. Almost as if the US stock market is moving against all odds, the S&P and NASDAQ have pushed higher into new all-time high territory while the Dow Jones index currently trades just below recent highs.  What should traders expect with the Fed announcement and beyond?

Probability of Rate Cut Percent

First, we need to understand the global markets have already priced a 25 basis point rate decrease into the markets based on expectations.  The CME Fed expectations data suggests the market is 78.1% confident that a 25 basis point rate decrease will happen.

Source (CME)

This suggests that global traders are already prepared for this move and we may not see much volatility if the US Fed does not surprise anyone with their language/future expectations.

We believe the US Fed is taking this rate decrease to ease the supply of US Dollars throughout the world.  Over the past 18+ months, the strength of the US Dollar has prompted a shift away from weaker global economies and into the US equities market, US Treasuries and the US Dollar.  We believe this shift is reaching a critical moment in time where the fragility of the foreign markets has reached a tipping point.

Weekly US Dollar chart

You can see from this Weekly US Dollar chart that the rally from the bottom in early 2018 has been tremendous – +11.25% and climbing.  While this US Dollar rally has taken place, many foreign currencies have continued to weaken while the global economy has recently slowed to a crawl.  As long as the US Dollar stays within the magenta price channel moving forward, we expect this trend to continue.

The shift in how capital is being deployed and the stress that continues throughout the globe with regards to economic activity and output is related to something that we believe took place back in 2007 through 2016 – the global effort to support a very weak global economy.

We highlighted some of our thoughts in this recent research post about the black hold in global banking.

Overall, we believe the actions by the global central banks and the US Fed from 2007 till 2016 created a “setup” in the global markets that very few people foresaw or understood.  This shift happened at a pace and fever that few people could comprehend and came to a head in November 2016 when President Trump was elected.  We believe it happened somewhat like this…

2004~2006: Greenspan raises rates on an unprecedented scale (over 450%) pushing the US/global banking/credit sector into crisis in 2007-08

2008~2010: As the biggest global banking/credit crisis unfolds, the US Fed and global central banks do everything possible to save the world from decades of economic malaise and destruction.  US Fed lowers interest rates to near ZERO creating a run on US dollar debt/credit.

The Current Market Setup

2011~2015: As foreign market engages in debt/credit expansion, infrastructure projects and an “easy money” rally mode, something begins to change in 2014~2015.  China realizes the nation’s wealth is being exported to the US and other markets as well as a US stock market rotation that shocked the global investors.

2016~2017: The US Elections (2016) took the focus away from the global markets for a period of 15+ months and allowed the easy US Dollar trading activities to continue into hyperspace.  This is when many foreign nations/companies took huge risks leveraging debt and success into future debt/risks based on a belief that “this success will never end”.

Then This Happened…

January 2017: President Trump is sworn in and the US Fed begins raising rates aggressively.  The disruption that resulted from this 2017 combination event resulting in one of the largest “global unwinding” processes we’ve seen in quite a while and it has really only just begun.

The downward rotation in the US Dollar in early 2017 as a result of uncertainty in US policy and perceived strength in foreign markets as US interest rates were still relatively low – under 1.4% most of that time.  After US FFR rates crossed above the 1.75% level, the easy US Dollar carry trade became much more difficult to maintain and foreign investors had already setup trillions in debts expecting the US Fed to maintain easy money policies for decades.


Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EFFR

What is the US Fed expected to do at this time?  Either they lower the FFR so that the global markets can continue to run their credit/debt functions and attempt to deleverage the “setup” over the next 5+ years or the US Fed risks creating a run-away train type of scenario where foreign central banks lack the ammo to support their own economies and the US Fed risks creating hyper-inflation by not acting accordingly.  In short, the US Fed to the global bankers rescues again.

Well, here we go with the US Fed setting the policy and expectations for the future as this incredible 1800% FFR rate increase has pushed the global markets into potential turmoil.  We’ll complete our research in the second half of this research post in a few hours stay tuned!

CRUCIAL WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, And S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where each commodity and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

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Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NQ Should Reach 8031 Before Topping

With earnings data starting to hit the markets and recent news that China’s economic activity levels shrank to levels not seen in nearly 30 years, we believe our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is showing us a target level in the NASDAQ (NQ) that will likely be reached within the next 7 to 10 days.  We believe once this target level is reached, the US stock market will immediately begin an extended topping formation with sideways price action and increased volatility) which will culminate in our August 19, 2019 setup date for a much deeper price correction.

At this time, traders should start to prepare for this topping event and prepare for price resistance to be found as the NQ nears this 8031 level – only 60 pts away.  If you are sitting on a bunch of profitable long trades, our suggestion would be to scale back 50% to 60% of these open positions and prepare for a top setup to begin within 7 to 10 days.  The volatility we expect to see over the next 30 days will likely be 2x or 3x current levels.

Nasdaq Daily Chart

This Daily NQ chart highlights the Fib Target Resistance level and shows our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system’s current downside price targets (7760, 7400 and 7265).  These downside price target will change as the new price peak is established near the 8031 price level.

Nasdaq Weekly Chart

This NQ weekly chart highlights the same suggested resistance level (the YELLOW LINE drawn near the recent highs) and highlights deeper Weekly Fibonacci downside price targets near 6950, 6000 and 5950.

Our expectations are that economic weakness and price rotation will set up and begin a downside price move on or near August 19, 2019, based on our cycle research.  We believe this move will initially target a -6 to -9% downside price move, then extend into a much deeper price decline ending near the start of 2020 or within Q1 of 2020.

See my current trend and trade signals for the SP500 index here.

Conclusion:

Our researchers believe traders should be actively scaling back existing long positions in preparation for this top setup.  Key psychological levels have already been reached and the minute the NQ breaks above 8000, the key Fibonacci target level and the key psychological level (8000) become critical elements for the market top formation.

Now is the time to plan and prepare for these incredible price swings in the markets.  The next 18-24 months are certain to present technical traders with countless opportunities for success with these bigger price moves.

Our recent calls in the markets have resulted in over 42% in total gains over the past 60 days.  Isn’t it time you learned how www.TheTechnicalTraders.com can help you find and time better trades?

BECOME A TECHNICAL TRADER AND PROFIT WITH US

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

Index Prediction System Is Telling Us A Very Different Story

On this day, celebrating fathers and all they do for families and their children, we thought we would share some really interesting research regarding the next six months trading expectations in the NASDAQ and what it means for your trading account.  One element of our research involves data mining and searching for historical price correlation models.  These types of elements help us identify when the price is acting normally or abnormally.

We like to focus on the NQ (NASDAQ) because its tech-heavy and is where a lot of the Capital Shift (money from other countries is flowing into as a safe/best asset class at this time).

Below, We are going to Geek-Out a little and sharing raw data values from one of our data mining utilities highlighting each month’s historical activity in the NQ.

Pay close attention to the “Total Monthly Sum” and the monthly NEG (negative) and POS (positive) values.  These values show the range of price activity over the past 20 years normalized for each month. Obviously, we can’t expect the markets to adhere to these normalized values, but we can gain insight from the data retrieved by this data mining tool.

To help you understand this data we’ll focus some brief analysis on the month of June, below. June has a total monthly NEG value of -1009 and a total monthly POS value of 1410.  Additionally, the NEG value is comprised of 9 months of data and the POS value is composed of 11 months of data.  Therefore, the relationship between NEG and POS months is roughly 1:1 – or about equal. Overall, the positive months outweigh the negative months by 401 points. The largest monthly positive and negative values are 492 and -189. This suggests the positive price aspect of these mined data points is about 2.3:1 respectively.

The conclusion we derive from this date is that June is moderately more positive based on historical price data then negative.  This data is derived from the NQ. Therefore the expectations of a positive 300 to 400 point move in the NQ for June would be in line with historical expectations.  Anything beyond that range should be considered a price anomaly. These types of price anomalies to happen fairly often but are difficult to predict.

As of today, the NQ has already moved upward by over 400 points since the end of May. This price advance equaling our expected data range would suggest that the upward price move in the NQ may be very close to ending.

=====[ June Monthly Analysis ]========================

– Largest Monthly POS : 492 NEG -189.25
– Total Monthly NEG : -1009 across 9 bars – Avg = -112.11
– Total Monthly POS : 1410 across 11 bars – Avg = 128.18
——————————————–
– Total Monthly Sum : 401 across 20 bars

Analysis for the month = 6
===================================================

As you scan through the rest of these data mining results, pay very close attention to the largest monthly ranges as well as the overall price bias described by the total monthly NEG and POS values.  For example, in July the monthly values are more narrow in range. Yet the total monthly NEG and POS values depict a broader range for price.

Additionally, the POS bars (13) compared to the NEG bars (6) describes a vastly different historical price relevance.  The possibility of an upside price bias in July is much stronger than what we determined four June.  The 13:6 ratio of upside to downside price bars in July converts into a nearly 2:1 upside price expectation versus a 1:1 ratio in June.  Because of this, we can determine that July will likely result in a positive upside price move of at least 150 to 250 points in the NQ before exhausting.

=====[ July Monthly Analysis ]========================

– Largest Monthly POS : 319.75 NEG -200
– Total Monthly NEG : -656 across 6 bars – Avg = -109.33
– Total Monthly POS : 1654 across 13 bars – Avg = 127.23
——————————————–
– Total Monthly Sum : 998 across 19 bars

Analysis for the month = 7
===================================================

Our data mining tool suggests that August may be much more volatile than July. The larger monthly total sum suggests a possible breakout move to the upside. The increases in total monthly values suggest volatility will also increase. Overall the combined July and August data points suggest rotation may end with a big move to the upside sometime in late August before a correction.

=====[ August Monthly Analysis ]========================

– Largest Monthly POS : 477 NEG -313.25
– Total Monthly NEG : -835.5 across 8 bars – Avg = -104.44
– Total Monthly POS : 1702.5 across 12 bars – Avg = 141.88
——————————————–
– Total Monthly Sum : 867 across 20 bars

Analysis for the month = 8
===================================================

September data points show an immediate reversal to the upside price bias. The data reporting from our data mining tool flips to the negative side fairly strong. Overall expectations are roughly 1:1 that a downside price move will dominate for September.

Our data mining utility suggests a downside price move of between -450 and -550 points.  If you’ve been following our research, you already know that we are predicting a moderately large downside reversal beginning in late August or September. It is our belief that the US stock markets will rotate downwards after a peak in price in August. We believe this downside move could last well into November, much like the downside move in 2018.

=====[ September Monthly Analysis ]========================

– Largest Monthly POS : 229 NEG -473
– Total Monthly NEG : -1460.25 across 10 bars – Avg = -146.03
– Total Monthly POS : 903.5 across 10 bars – Avg = 90.35
——————————————–
– Total Monthly Sum : -556.75 across 20 bars

Analysis for the month = 9
===================================================

Should our expectations play out in the market, the downside price move in September, October and possibly November, would result in a unique price anomaly setup near this price bottom.

As you can see from the data mining results, below, the last quarter (3 months) of the year typically results in upside price bias. Therefore, any deep downside price move after our expected peak in August will set up a very unique price anomaly pattern where skilled traders should be able to capture an incredible upside price run near the end of 2019.

=====[ October Monthly Analysis ]========================

– Largest Monthly POS : 480.25 NEG -679.75
– Total Monthly NEG : -1564.5 across 7 bars – Avg = -223.50
– Total Monthly POS : 2320.25 across 13 bars – Avg = 178.48
——————————————–
– Total Monthly Sum : 755.75 across 20 bars

Analysis for the month = 10
===================================================

=====[ November Monthly Analysis ]========================

– Largest Monthly POS : 316.5 NEG -768
– Total Monthly NEG : -1169 across 6 bars – Avg = -194.83
– Total Monthly POS : 1509 across 14 bars – Avg = 107.79
——————————————–
– Total Monthly Sum : 340 across 20 bars

Analysis for the month = 11
===================================================

Pay very close attention to the fact that December can be fairly mixed in terms of overall price bias and upside or downside price expectation.  With a 1:1 (equal price weighting) for both positive and negative price results and a monthly sum of only about 100 points, we would expect December to be moderately congested and flat.

=====[ December Monthly Analysis ]========================

– Largest Monthly POS : 782 NEG -616.25
– Total Monthly NEG : -1179.5 across 10 bars – Avg = -117.95
– Total Monthly POS : 1291.5 across 10 bars – Avg = 129.15
——————————————–
– Total Monthly Sum : 112 across 20 bars

Analysis for the month = 12
===================================================

And there you have it, our Father’s Day gift to all of you. These results from our proprietary data mining utility are providing you with a detailed map of what to expect in the NQ going forward through December 2019. This is only one aspect of our research team’s resources and unique capabilities that assist us in understanding what price will be doing in the future. There are many other utilities and trading indicator tools that we use to help confirm and validate our analysis.

We’ve included a chart of the S&P E-mini futures contract with a yellow line drawn across our predicted price modeling expectations starting from the end of 2017 until now. Pay very close attention to our expected price levels and the market price levels as time progressed forward. As you become more skilled in understanding how this data can be used to benefit your trading and deliver results, you’ll learn why our research team relies on our proprietary modeling tools and software so heavily.

We thought we might share a bit of specialized data with you on this Father’s Day so that you could use some of our proprietary information in your own research and analysis going forward.

Please remember, price action dictates everything. Even though we can model and data mine incredible information months or years into the future, everything comes down to what price is doing right now. If it confirms our analysis, then fantastic – our research may be right on the money.  If the price moves beyond our expectations and research, then we have to reevaluate our expectations in correlation with the data that we have to determine if we need to adjust our expectations going forward.

My point is, yes we can forecast, yes we have been correctly more times than not, but you cannot just go out and place trades based on this analysis alone because our analysis will change with the market.

To be blatantly honest, we don’t really care what the market does or when. We FOLLOW the market and trade on its coat tales, we don’t jump in front of it and guess/hope it will reverse as we are predicting.

Some of our articles/forecasts we share simply don’t happen and we get lots of flack from free followers of these articles. But what most followers fail to understand is that even when our predictions are DEAD WRONG, we and our subscribers make money in most cases. Again, we don’t trade the forecasts we just let them help guide us, and we trade with the dominant trend.

We have a good pulse on the major markets and can profit during times when most others can’t which is why you should join my Wealth Trading Newsletter for index, metals, and energy trade alerts.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these super cycles are going to last years. These super cycles starting to take place will go into 2020 and beyond which we lay out in our new PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

I am going to give away and ship out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans listed below, and you will receive:

1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)

2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND
GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!
Free Shipping!

Happy Fathers Day Guys!

Chris Vermeulen
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

ADL Predicts Expected Range Of The NASDAQ Before Breakout

Our advanced predictive modeling system is suggesting a defined range for the NQ over the next 30 to 60+ days before a bigger breakout move is expected.  If you’ve been following our research, you already know we have been predicting the NQ to move in a sideways pennant formation.  Our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting the NQ will stay within a defined price range over the next 30 to 60 days.

The upside price bias we are predicting is based on the ADL modeling systems suggestion that an upward price bias is inherent in the markets. You’ll see from the charts below that two different predictive results are driving our interpretation currently.

One result is predicting an upward price bias over the next 2 to 4 months whereas the second result is predicting a sideways price result over the same period of time.

Our conclusion is that the NQ will likely trade in a sideways pennant formation over this span of time before a breakout price move happens.

Our research continues to suggest a price peak may happen in August or September of 2019. We believe this peak aligns with our cycle research as well as aligns with our suggested pennant formation pattern. We believe the peak that forms near August or September will likely result in new all-time price highs. That breakout to new all-time highs will likely be the end of the move higher for now.   After our expected price peak sometime near September, we believe the markets will turn lower with a possible move of -10% to -15% or more.

This two-week bar chart of the NQ highlights our ADL predictive modeling results. You should be able to see the yellow dashed lines on this chart showing what we believe will be price support above 6800.  we’ve also drawn lines on the chart highlighting where the pennant formation price rotation will likely take place. Over the next few weeks, we expect the NQ price rotation to stay between 6800 and 7500.  This range presents an incredible opportunity for traders to trade this rotation.

This NQ monthly chart highlights to ADL predictive modeling results showing two separate ADL predictions. Our researchers use these results to create a combined consensus expectation for the markets. This particular NQ monthly chart suggests there is a strong upward price bias over the next 2 to 3 months. Combining this upward bias with our expectations of price support near 6800, we conclude that a sideways price rotation should be expected with a fairly volatile price range.

Please take notice of the upper yellow dashed lines of 8000. These ADL predictive levels suggest that the NQ will likely attempt a move above 8000 sometime in August or September of 2019, then move dramatically lower as price attempts to revert back to the 7500 level – or lower.

It is critically important for traders to understand the future price expectations of the NQ and the US stock market. Having knowledge of future price activity, like our ADL predictive modeling can produce, allows traders to plan for and execute strategic trading strategies.

Once the peak in August or September is reached, skilled traders should begin to prepare for a bigger downside price move which may last many months. Initially, our expectation is a move back to 7500. Our longer-term research and cycle analysis suggest prices may move much lower – possibly towards 6000 or lower.

We have a good pulse on the major markets and can profit during times when most others can’t which is why you should join my Wealth Trading Newsletter for index, metals, and energy trade alerts.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these super cycles are going to last years. These super cycles starting to take place will go into 2020 and beyond which we lay out in our new PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

Happy Trading!
Chris Vermeulen

US Memorial Day Weekend Market Analysis

The US Memorial Day weekend is set up to become a very interesting time for investors.  The EU voting is complete and the change in EU leadership may move the markets a bit.  China appears to be playing a waiting game – attempting to hold the US/Trump at bay until after the 2020 US elections.  This week is certain to be very interesting for traders/investors.

The European stocks moved higher in trading on Monday as the relief from the EU election event and support for auto shares pushed the markets higher. The transition in the EU over the next few months will solidify into a political and social agenda.  The EU leadership must acknowledge these future objectives of all parties in order to maintain some level of calm.  It is evident that many EU nations are relatively satisfied with the current leadership while others are transitioning into more centrist leadership.  The next 4+ years will be full of further transition in the EU.

China is another global issue that is relatively unsettled.  We’ve been doing some research with regards to China and the potential future political and economic pathways that may become evident in the near-term future.  Our biggest concern is that China has been inflating their economic levels for decades and the true scope of the Chinese economy may be much weaker than everyone expects.  If our suspicions are correct and China has been inflating economic levels for many years, then the transition to a consumer/services-driven economy may be dramatically over-inflated and the US/China trade issues could be biting much harder than the Chinese want to admit.

The “Sell in May and go away” market saying may become absolute truth in 2019.  Our expectations are still suggesting that an attempt at new market highs may take place before August 2019, but the current market rotation (lower) is setting up a very strong potential for further downside price action at the moment.  Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting the $7294 level in the NQ is key support.  Below this level, the NQ could break much lower and potentially target $6850 or lower.

 

The YM is setting up a similar price pattern with resistance near 25,840.  We believe this resistance will push prices lower as we move further into early June.  The potential for some type of surprise economic data or Fed/Global market move after this weekend is somewhat higher than expected.  There is a lot of shifting taking place throughout the globe and we believe this turbulence will reflect in the US market soon enough.

 

As of right now, our expectations are that a brief upside price rally will take place over the next 4~7+ days before a continued downside price trend may become evident.  Pay attention to the news cycles for key elements that could drive the US stock market lower.  We will continue to update you with regards to our proprietary research and expectations.  The next 7+ days will likely be nothing but sideways price rotation within a Pennant/Flag formation.

Read our research to understand how this setup coincides with the GOLD price setup and why it is important to understand why July 2019 is so important.  Please take a minute to review these recent research posts that focus more on the US Dollar and Gold, and also the July turning point for US Stocks.

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We continue to see money flow into the safe-haven assets like the Utility sector, bonds, and most importantly precious metals. I anticipated this and our XLU utilities ETF taken with members for 4.4% already, and our VIX ETF trade we closed for a 25% last week.

For May I am going to give away and ship out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans listed below, and you will receive:

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!

Chris Vermeulen