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My Gold and Miners Rally & Prediction

We’ve been trying to alert all of our followers of the setup in precious metals for well over 6 months.  Here is our research post from February 6, 2019 (nearly 4 months ago) that highlights our prediction of an April 21~24 momentum base and our earlier calls predicting a move above $1300, then a stall and move lower towards the base in April, then the next leg higher.

We could not have been clearer in our analysis and we predicted the bottom and rally in gold in Oct, called the top and closed our GDXJ miners position near the in February, and called for gold to bottom this April/May over 7 months in advance.

 

SEE GOLD PREDICTION CHART FROM OCTOBER 2018
Predicted the rally, then the correction which brings us to today
See Blog Post

 

SEE GOLD CORRECTION FORECAST FEB 6th
Expecting pullback to $1275 level
Read these articles and see for yourself why our research and predictive modeling system are second to none.

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Extended Gold Mega Base Could Prompt An Incredible Rally

Here we go again..  We’ve been nailing the Precious Metals moves for many months and we’ve heard from many of our followers and members about our research.  Some of you might remember our November 24, 2018 prediction that Gold would rally above $1300, then stall and set up a “Momentum Base pattern near April 21~24, 2019 .  We find it incredible that we can make a prediction about Gold nearly 6+ months ahead of the move using our proprietary predictive modeling tools and then sit back and wait for it to happen just as we predicted.

On March 28, 2019, we posted this research article regarding the “Final Buying Opportunity for Gold”.  Our researchers believe this current double-bottom setup is the last time you’ll see Gold prices below $1300 for quite some time in the future.  Again, we were warning our followers that the opportunity to position their gold trades was setting up and this low price setup may be the last time we see Gold near these lows.

Our current research suggests the bottoming is over and the new price leg should begin to prompt a Gold price rally over the next 5~7+ weeks targeting a level well above $1375 initially.

This Daily Gold chart highlights the price rotation and the Double-Bottom that has currently set up in Gold.  Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting an upside price leg targeting at least $1330 (on this Daily chart) will become the initial upside price leg.  Remember, the Daily Fibonacci modeling system is predicting price moves over 10~30+ days.

 

This Weekly Gold chart is highlighting the same Fibonacci predictive price modeling system on long term data – weekly data.  You can see how we’ve highlighted the price rotation peaks and valleys as well as how the Fibonacci modeling system is predicting a broader upside price move with a target near $1425 or higher.

If you pay attention to the MAGENTA price rotations we’ve highlighted throughout the initial upside price move, you’ll see there are a total of FIVE (5) rotations within that first price leg.  A perfect 5 wave rotation upward.  Then, the following downside price move consisted of a THREE (3) wave downside price move – resulting in a DOUBLE-BOTTOM price formation.  Should this next wave, wave C, rally in equal form to Wave A, the upside price target for the move would be $1450.  We believe this next price advance will be bigger than Wave A and likely result in a price target range well above $1650.

 

As we’ve been saying for many months, get ready and here we go.  Once the protectionist moves into Cryptos have waned and traders realize the magnitude of this potential precious metals rally (as well as the fact that Cryptos will not provide the same level of protection as precious metals), the hunt for the shiny metals will be on.  It would be very wise to stay well ahead of this move and prepare for this upside leg now.

We have been trying to tell you about this move for over 6+ months.  We hope you’ve been paying attention and understand that even with a 4% to 8% price risk (or more) in your accumulation of Gold/Miners and precious metals positions, this trade is for the longer-term objective – not the short-term 8 to 12%.  This next upside price move could target the $2100 to $2400 level if it extends into a complex advancement wave.  That would mean Wave C could end well above $2100 and that Wave E could target the $5000 level or much higher.

We’ll keep you informed of this move, but you better start planning for this upside move before you miss this bottom. And just because we like to hear it – remember, we called this move back in November 2018 – over 6 months ago.

UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY: First, we typically see stocks sell-off and as the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” which is what has been happening.

So what does this mean? It means we should start to see money flow into the safe-haven assets like the Utility sector, bonds, and most importantly precious metals. I anticipated this and our XLU utilities ETF taken with members has already hit our first profit target, and our VIX ETF trade also hit out 15% profit target and we the balance of it is still up 25% as of yesterday.

Second, my birthday was this month, and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.

For May I am going to give away and ship out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans listed below, and you will receive:

1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)

2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)

I only have few silver rounds I’m giving away
so upgrade or join now before its too late!

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!

Chris Vermeulen

A Bullish Trade In Commodities

Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders joins me to focus on a couple of commodities sectors. We start off with oil and a level that Chris is watching closely to buy. Then we look at the precious metals.

3 DAYS LEFT TO GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS WITH SUBSCRIPTION!

We continue to see money flow into the safe-haven assets like the Utility sector, bonds, and most importantly precious metals. I anticipated this and our XLU utilities ETF taken with members for 4.4% already, and our VIX ETF trade we closed for a 25% last week.

For May I am going to give away and ship out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans listed below, and you will receive:

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND GET FREE SILVER ROUNDS!

Chris Vermeulen

Eye Opening Currency Charts – Why Metals Are Falling

The incredible strength of the US Dollar over the past 12+ months has put downward pricing pressure on Gold and Silver.  I believe this downward pricing pressure could be muting any upside price advanced in Gold and Silver by as much as 20% to 30% or more.

The US Dollar has turned into the global “safe-haven” for international investors and foreign governments.  Over the past 6 to 12 months, or more, the US Dollar has been the only fiat currency to see any strength and upward trend.  All the other major global currency levels have fallen – some dramatically lower.

The EUR, GBP, AUD, CAD, and CHF have all fallen sharply over the past 6 to 12 months as the strength of the US Dollar and US Economy continued to surprise many.  We’ve been calling this a “capital shift” that started back in 2015~2016 – when the 2016 US Election cycle began and China began to implement capital controls.  At the same time, foreign nations such as Brazil and Venezuela began to shift into an economic abyss while the UK dealt with BREXIT negotiations.  All of these external factors created an environment where the US Dollar became a global safe-haven for global investors – all of which were seeking US equities and US Dollars to hedge weakening foreign currencies and weak foreign stock market performance.

 

I think that the US Dollar strength, in combination with the continued foreign Gold acquisitions has amounted to a resolved “reversion” in Gold prices that could reflect a 10% to 20% price anomaly.  In other words, the strength of the US Dollar has muted the advancing price of Gold by our estimates of 2x to 2.5x the strength of the US Dollar.  Over the past 12 months, the US Dollar rallied from 89.42 (April 2018) to 97.92 (May 2019: current price).  This reflects a 9.60% increase in the value of the US Dollar.

If my research is correct, the price of Gold should have rallied by about 18% to 26% from the April 2018 levels IF the US Dollar had not appreciated in value as it has.  Therefore, the true price of Gold should be somewhere near $1600 (18% above April 2018 levels) to $1700 (26% above April 2018 levels) if we attempted to eliminate the “reversion effect” of the US Dollar strength.

We come to this conclusion by statistically analyzing the US Dollar strength after April 2018 and how Gold reacted to this strength – by falling over 12.5% from near $1350 to a level near $1170.  That range of time reflected an 8% price advance in the US Dollar.  Thus, a ratio of 1.5 to 1 has clearly been established within that move.  More recently, from August 2018 till now, the US Dollar has rallied 1.47% while the price of Gold has rallied 8.87%.  The current price of Gold is -5.60% below the April 2018 price level.

If we were to assume that the rally in the US Dollar deflated the price appreciation of Gold by nearly equal ratios, then we take the April 2018 price of Gold ($1350) and add the related price variances of Gold over this span (essentially reverting the price of Gold to April 2018 US Dollar levels : $1350 * 1.27) and we end up with $1714.50.  This reflects a greater than 30% price anomaly from the current price of Gold.

Gold Futures – Goldchart by TradingView

We need to ask ourselves one simple question, what would it take for Precious Metals and the global stock markets to revert back to these expected price levels?  Would it be a move away from the US Dollar?  Would it be some shift in foreign currency valuations?  Would it be a combination of factors that drive greater fear into the markets and reflect a US Dollar valuation decline?  In the second part of this article, I will explore some possibilities and explain why I believe we are just days or weeks away from finding out exactly what will cause this price anomaly to revert along with my proprietary gold price cycle forecast.

I just highlighted the strength of the US Dollar in comparison to other foreign currencies and suggested this US Dollar strength may have created a “price anomaly” setup in Precious Metals – specifically Gold.  I believe a very unique setup is happening in the global markets right now and that the price of Gold is substantially undervalued compared to risks that are present throughout the global economies.  I believe the strength of the US Dollar has muted the upside potential of Gold by at least 20% to 30% over the past 12+ months and I believe a shift is taking place where Gold is starting to break these pricing constraints.

If the analysis is correct, I believe traders only have about 3~6+ weeks before we’ll find out why and what will cause this price anomaly to revert back to what I believe is “price normalcy”.  The strength of the US Dollar, as well as the continued global “capital shift” where foreign investors are piling into the US stock market and US Dollar related investments, have continued to put incredible pricing pressures on Precious Metals.  We believe this “shift” may be about to revert back to some levels of normalcy in term of Precious Metals pricing.

I believe a major Pennant/Flag formation is setting up in Gold where this price anomaly event will be resolved.  This type of price anomaly reset, or reversion will prompt a massive upside price advance in Gold and Silver that will attempt to restore proper pricing levels to the Precious Metals commodities.  I believe we are just weeks away from the completion of this Pennant/Flag apex/breakout event and believe the upside price targets identified align with a series of key events that are likely to unfold over the Summer months of 2019.  Take a few minutes to read the recent three-part research post regarding these events and how they relate to the global stock/commodity markets here.

 

Our predictive modeling systems have been warning that a price advance in Gold and Silver will take place between April/May of 2019 and Aug/Sept or 2019.  We are calling this the “initial upside price leg” because we believe this upside price move will be just the beginning of a much larger move higher for Precious Metals.  We’ve highlighted some of the biggest concerns we currently have related to the global stock market price appreciation levels and the concerns related to the US Presidential Election cycle in precious articles – Please read them here :

We believe it is imperative to alert all investors/traders of this event and to attempt to allow all investors/traders to plan for what may become one of the biggest global stock market swings in recent history as well as one of the biggest moves in Precious Metals in history.

My proprietary cycle analysis and trade signals are suggesting a mild price recovery in Gold will prompt moderate upside pricing pressure over the next 10~20+ days.  This aligns perfectly with our Pennant/Flag formation, see the previous chart.  It would be expected that Gold prices would form a moderate price support level near $1270 before moving back up to the upper Pennant price channel, near $1295.  Then, price should set up the “Apex Breakout” move – which will likely be a “washout-low” price rotation (somewhere near or below $1270) with a very quick reversal to the upside – breaking $1330 and rallying much higher.  This type of rotation is very common and often prompts traders to jump into short positions on the “washout-low” formation before getting clobbered on the reversal/rally.  Be prepared.

 

Lastly, we want to alert everyone to a chart we’ve been following that could become a determining factor for the future of the global stock market levels, the US Dollar and Precious Metals.  The one thing we don’t want to see is a massive decline in yield in the 2 Year Treasuries.  This would indicate failed growth expectations throughout the globe and, in particular, reflect concerns that the US markets could contract/decline in-line with further global market devaluations.

We’ve already been trying to warn investors that the US Presidential Election cycle will likely create a stalling price pattern in the US stock market.  We’ve been warning, for the past 18 months, that Gold is setting up a massive bottom/breakout formation.  We’ve recently highlighted the global concerns (Europe, China, US, and others) that may combine to create something like a “perfect storm” for currencies and the global equities markets.  If that translates into “yield weakness” in the US Treasuries, think about how that would translate into the Precious Metals “reversion” that we are suggesting is only a few weeks away?

Chart courtesy of www.crescat.net

 

We strongly urge investors to pay very close attention to our research and prepare for this event.  Yes, the Capital Shift event is still taking place and as long as nothing disrupts this shift, capital will continue to flow into the US Dollar and US Equities.  Our concern is that the charts are telling us we are very near to the end of this event cycle and we are alerting all of our followers so they can prepare for this move.  It may start out mildly – it may not.  We do know that our predictive modeling systems are suggesting that July/August 2019 are on our radar for a major price rotation/event.

UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY

First, we typically see stocks sell-off and as the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” which is what has been happening.

So what does this mean? It means we should start to see money flow into the safe-haven assets like the Utility sector, bonds, and most importantly precious metals. I anticipated this and our XLU utilities ETF taken with members has already hit our first profit target, and our VIX ETF trade also hit out 15% profit target and we the balance of it is still up 25% as of yesterday.

Second, my birthday was this month, and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.

For May I am going to give away and ship out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans listed below, and you will receive:

1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)

2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)

I only have 25 silver rounds I’m giving away
so upgrade or join now before its too late!

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!

Happy May Everyone!

Chris Vermeulen

 

Silver Sets Up A Long-Term Wave B Bottom

Precious Metals traders have been hanging on every turn in the markets over the past 2+ years.  The upside price move in early 2016 setup a very strong expectation that further upside price moves were about to result in an upside price explosion in metals.  Remember, 2016 was a very big US Presidential election year.  2020, being the next big US Presidential election year, is only about 7 months away and the rancor has already started in the news cycles.

Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting that Silver has set up an ABC bottom in Oct/Nov 2018 and has already initiated an A/B upside price leg that should result in a C or C/D/E price advance over the next few months.  Our Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting an upside price target of $22 per ounce for this move, which breaks the previous July 2016 highs of $21.22.  We believe the ultimate upside target of this next bullish move is bear $28 to $29 based on longer-term Fibonacci price modeling.

Initially, this upside move must break the $16.30 level, which represents immediate resistance.  Then, it must push above the $18.66 level, which represents secondary resistance.  Once Silver passes the $18.66 level, the last leg higher will attempt to break the $21.22 level and push up into new recent highs (higher than the 2016 highs).

We believe the current US Presidential election cycle will be full of twists and turns – most of which will be very public and explosive.  We believe this election cycle will create a certain level of fear in the markets that are above and beyond what we have seen over the past 15+ months.  In a method that is very similar to what happened in 2016, the public will become entrenched in the election cycle process and the global economy may suffer slightly as the political shenanigans continue to play out on our TVs, newspapers and web browsers.

The October/December 2018 lows were, most likely, the lowest price levels we will see going forward.  Additionally, the current price levels, below $15 per ounce, may be the last time we’ll have the opportunity to see prices this low in a number of years.  Our price modeling is suggesting that Silver and Gold will begin a Momentum Base Rally from these lows that may last many years.

If you want to know when we get long Silver next be sure to join our Wealth Trading Newsletter and get our trading signals. In fact, we are giving away and shipping FREE Silver rounds for select membership levels for the next few days.

Chris Vermeulen