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Metals and VIX Are About To Pull A “Crazy Ivan” – Part I

We’re borrowing a term from the movie Red October (source) that describes an unusual change of direction for a Russian submarine with the intent to seek out enemies and unknown targets – called a “Crazy Ivan”.  We are using this term because we believe the markets are about to pull a very unusual “Crazy Ivan” move of their own – reverting to unknown price levels while the US/Global markets attempt to seek out risk, support, resistance and other unknown “revaluation” targets in the process.

Our belief is that a key cycle date, August 19, 2019, will be the start of a breakdown in the US markets that aligns with some outside type of catalyst event.  It could be that foreign central banks issue some news or warning at that time or it could be that Asia/China issue some type of catalyst to the event.  We don’t know what the catalyst will be but we can guess that it will be related to geopolitics or the global economy/credit/debt issues.  God forbid it to be some type of war or human crisis event – we really don’t need that right now.

Please review these earlier research posts for more information :

July 24, 2019: PART II – BLACK HOLE IN GLOBAL BANKING IS BEING EXPOSED

July 24, 2019: SILVER PRICE TARGET DURING THE NEXT BULL MARKET

July 20, 2019: US & GLOBAL MARKETS SETTING UP FOR A VOLATILITY EXPLOSION – ARE YOU READY?

July 13, 2019: MID-AUGUST IS A CRITICAL TURNING POINT FOR US STOCKS

Our job as research analysts is to highlight what we believe is likely to happen and why we believe it is likely to happen.  Therefore, without guessing as to the cause of the event, let’s focus on the “Crazy Ivan” event and how we can attempt to profit from it.

First, let’s take a look at the VIX chart.  The VIX basing level (the lowest level the VIX has attained between price spikes) has been increasing as US stock market volatility continues to increase.  The nature of the calculations that make up the VIX would suggest this increase in basing levels would happen as extended volatility continues to be present in the markets – so this is expected.  What is not expected is the August 19th price inflection point that we believe will drive an unexpected price reversion in the US and global stock markets.  We believe this cycle inflection date is key to understanding how the markets will react going into the end of 2019 and beyond.

If our analysis is correct, then we believe a breakdown in the US and global markets will occur on or shortly after August 19, 2019, where the US stock markets are poised for a -15% to -25% price reversion.  This downside move in the US stock market would set up an incredible “price anomaly” for skilled technical traders that should provide an incredible opportunity for future profits.

We believe the ultimate downside potential for this move may last all the way through the end of 2019 and into early 2020 – although we can’t be certain yet as to the depth and severity of this move using our predictive modeling tools and utilities.  All we know is that it is about to happen based on what our predictive modeling tools are telling us and we have continued to try to warn you of this move for the past few months.  So here it is – the Crazy Ivan (as we’re calling it).

Any VIX rally that pushes the price above 30 or 40 would have to be rather severe compared to previous rotations.  The spikes on this chart related as follows on the NQ chart :

Early May VIX Spike to 23.31 resulted in a -938.25 point move (-11.91%) in the NQ

The current August VIX spike to 24.80 resulted in a -848.75 point move (-10.54%) in the NQ.

What would a move to above 32 in the VIX look like on the NQ chart?  How about a move to above 42 on the VIX?  Hello Crazy Ivan.

This next chart of the NQ on a monthly basis highlights our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system at work.  This utility helps us to understand where the price will want to target in the future and also helps us to understand trend and outlying price trends (or price anomalies).  Price anomalies happen when price moves substantially away from where the ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting price wants to be at.  Thus, if the price of the NQ were to fall below $5500 very quickly (think Crazy Ivan) and our ADL modeling tool suggests that price really wants to be at $6800 at that time, then we have a $3300 price anomaly setting up.  This is a type of reactive price anomaly that suggests price is way off target and will attempt to revert to levels closer to the ADL predictive price levels.

We believe the Crazy Ivan event could push the price of the NQ much lower than our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting and create a price anomaly that may become one of the most profitable trades near the end of 2019.

You can see from this ADL predictive modeling chart that price is expected to be lower near the end of 2019, but steadily climb higher into early 2020.  If price were to end up below 6400 by the end of 2019, that would set up a 1000+ point price anomaly setup that could become an incredible upside price move in early 2020.  Time will tell as this Crazy Ivan event plays out.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In the second part of this article, we’ll study the Crazy Ivan event in the metals and show you what we believe will happen to both Gold and Silver as this event plays out.  You won’t want to miss this one.

WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

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Chris Vermeulen

Is This The Start Of The Next Bear Market?

Over the past few days, we’ve received hundreds of emails from our followers and members asking if this is the big breakdown that everyone has been expecting in the markets.  Yes, we’ve warned that it will likely happen before the end of 2019, but we’ve also been very clear that we believe an August 19, 2019 price peak will setup this move and our recent research suggest the NQ will rally to levels above 8200 before this peak in the US market sets up.  So, in order to help our members and followers understand what we believe is actually happening in the markets, we’ve put together this research post to help everyone better prepare for the next few weeks and months.

First things first, the foundation of Fibonacci price theory is that price will always attempt to seek out new price highs or new price lows – ALWAYS.  Many of the US major indexes have recently established new price highs in early July 2019.  Think of this as a fundamental element in price structure when attempting to apply Fibonacci price theory.

When any chart establishes a new price high (a high price that is above the previous rotational peak level in price), the trend is established as BULLISH and we would immediately expect, at some future time, that price will rotate lower attempting to validate that new price high or attempt to reach a new price low.  At certain times, external news can create “price over-reaction” events within the scope of price volatility.  I’m certain many of you have experienced these types of expanded price ranges that turn into a “wash-out” type of wide-range rotations in the markets.

The combination of the US Fed and the US/China trade talk failures, as well as the rally in Gold, Silver and the US Dollar, are all acting to create a hyper-active rotation in the markets with larger volatility.

We suggest that everyone read these earlier research posts to better understand what is really happening in the markets right now :

July 30, 2019: August 19 Market Top Prediction

July 31, 2019: US Fed is rattling the global markets – Part II

It is our opinion that the US Fed announcement followed immediately by the US/China trade talk failure created a “hyper-active” price rotation event that will likely turn into a short-term buying opportunity.  Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is suggesting the NQ will attempt to target levels above 8200 before the August 19, 2019 peak sets up.  Therefore, it is still our belief that the markets are setting up a unique “price anomaly” with this current downside price rotation and that a move higher is in the works before the bigger downside price rotation actually begins.

This Daily NQ chart highlights the support level near 7600 that was set up by the June 2019 price rotation.  Yes, the price has moved lower into this zone, but we believe this zone will act as a moderate support level and that price will rotate higher early in the week of August 5, 2019.

This Weekly NQ chart highlights our Fibonacci price modeling system and shows the “Critical Support” level from the October 2018 highs as well as the Bullish/Bearish trigger levels (the RED/GREEN lines near the right edge of the chart) that constitute confirmed price rotations.  At this time, the current BEARISH trigger levels are near 7540 and the NQ is still 140 points above this level.

NEXT MOVES FOR GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused on gold miners and the SP 500 index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

We believe this current downside price move is setting up to become an over-reaction price swing that will likely result in a very short-term buying opportunity for skilled technical traders.  Failure to reach levels below 7400 on the NQ would be a very strong indication that this is a “failed new price low rotation” on the Weekly chart.  And, as Fibonacci price theory suggests, price must always attempt to establish a new price high or new price low – at all times.  Thus, a failure to establish a new price low on this weekly chart would mean it MUST rotate higher to attempt to establish a new price high.  8200+, here we come.

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where each commodity and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been set up for this move for many months.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Palladium collapses After Our Double-Top From Early July 2019

It was almost like Palladium traders followed our research to the letter when the trend reversed on July 11, 2019.  Our research team issued a report indicating a Double-Top pattern was setting up in Palladium on July 3, 2019.  At that time, our proprietary cycle indicators and our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling systems suggested a large downside price swing was highly likely.

January 24, 2018: HAVE YOU SEEN PALLADIUM’S TRADABLE PRICE PATTERN?

July 3, 2019: PALLADIUM SETS UP ANOTHER DOUBLE TOP PATTERN

Palladium is a very interesting metal that is used in various industry sectors as a component for automobile equipment/parts, medical equipment, and many other industrial sectors.  It is a great leading indicator to help gauge future expectations for various global industries and as a measure of consumer/industrial consumption and expectations.  When Palladium is rallying, it is a fairly solid sign that consumers are bullish on the global economy and are purchasing equipment, autos and other industrial elements to support future growth expectations.  When Palladium is falling, it is a fairly solid sign that consumers are reigning in their spending on new cars and other industrial items that are manufactured with Palladium.

One of the biggest factors that are likely driving this move in Palladium is the renewed interest in Gold and Silver as the global market enters a very fragile period.  Palladium is a precious metal that is used in jewelry and other consumer products – like Gold and Silver.  Yet Palladium does not have the status in the precious metals world like Gold and Silver do.  When fear and greed enter the markets, Gold, Silver, and Platinum take center-stage.  Palladium, because of its more industrial use base, its not something that will rally like Gold and Silver will when a crisis hits.

This Daily Palladium chart shows how the weakness in price started just after the price peak on July 11, 2019.  Over the past 3+ weeks, Palladium rotated downward towards the $1500 price level, then stalled.  Global traders were focused on earnings data, the US Fed announcement, and other data.

The recent breakdown is a result of three factors

_ US Fed rates decrease (expecting weaker global economic output)

_ The rally in Gold and Silver (where global traders are starting to focus their attention)

_ The fragility of global economic/trade functions that continue to plague the global markets

These three factors will move the focus away from industrial use metals (Copper, Palladium, and Aluminum) and towards the more traditional Gold/Silver moves.

This Weekly Palladium chart highlights the Fibonacci price modeling system’s lower target levels.  Pay attention to the fact that $1315 and $1000 are key downside target levels in Palladium.  The Daily chart Fibonacci levels suggest that minor support may be found near $1400.  The Weekly Fibonacci chart suggests major support is really down near $1000.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

We believe once the $1475 level is breached to the downside, Palladium will quickly fall to levels near $1300 before briefly stalling and attempting to find support.  This move in Palladium aligns almost perfectly with our August 19 US market “Peak” prediction from months ago.  We believe the ultimate lower levels, near $1000, are a very strong possibility over the next 3+ months as we believe the global markets, and the US markets, are setting up for a fairly big price rotation after August 19, 2019.

Don’t miss any of these big moves or our incredible research posts.  Find out how www.TheTechnicalTraders.com can help you find and execute better trades and prepare for these big price swings that are about to explode.

NEXT TRENDS FOR GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused on gold miners and the SP 500 index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where each commodity and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Metals React To Fed Shockwaves – Ready For Next Move

On July 31, 2019, the US Federal Reserve decreased the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) by 25 basis points.  We believe the US Fed was pushed to take this action for three reasons that are directly related to the fear and greed that is abundant in the global markets.

Reason #1 Fed Had To Cut Rates

First, the US Fed is very concerned that the US housing market has stagnated and weakened over the past 16+ months.  The Fed has pushed the FFR towards our modeling system’s upper boundary (2.0 to 2.25) many months ago and this has pushed the housing market over a supply/demand precipice that may already be too far gone for a substantial recovery.  The US Fed, attempting to prevent another housing market collapse, must attempt to ease lending in an attempt to spark new real estate activity.

Reason #2 Fed Had To Cut Rates

Second, the US Fed must attempt to ease the foreign market US Dollar carry trade liabilities and attempt to allow more US Dollar opportunity in the foreign economy.  Over the past 2 to 3+ years, the supply of US Dollars within the foreign markets has diminished considerably while demand has increased.  Because of this, a US Dollar shortage currently exists in much of the global economy.  The US Fed is attempting to allow more US Dollar supply by lowering the FFR.

Reason #3 Fed Had To Cut Rates

Lastly, the US Fed, attempting to accommodate a more adaptable rates policy in order to more adequately facilitate the global economic turmoil that is persistent throughout the world.  Even though the US economy is still very strong and showing only mild signs of weakness currently, the US Fed felt the need to become more accommodating to allow more flexibility for global central banks to navigate through the current trade and geopolitical issues.

Dollar Hits Resistance And Should Reverse Down

Metals reacted by moving lower as the US Dollar rallied after the Fed announcement.  The US Dollar is currently near the upper price channel that we believe will prompt a weaker US Dollar over the next few weeks and will likely prompt a move lower over the next few weeks – allowing metals the ability to skyrocket higher over this same span of time.

Gold Set To Rock Higher

Gold is reacting to the US Dollar/Fed news by rotating within the black line and magenta arc levels that we highlighted weeks ago.  These Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs highlight key price levels that are acting as resistance for Gold right now.  Once price breaks these levels, Gold will skyrocket above $1550 and likely target $1650 or higher.

Silver Ready To Rally

As we’ve highlighted several times, Silver is likely the best trading opportunity set up on the planet right now.  We’ve highlighted where we are currently (“We Are Here”) and where we believe the price will move to in the future on this chart.  Using our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc levels and Fibonacci price ranges, we can “guess” where price may target in the future and where peaks and valleys may form.  We believe silver is setting up for a move to levels above $21~$22 right now and will begin this move higher within the next 2 to 5 weeks.

Even though the US Fed is attempt to act as a savior for the global central banks and attempting to easy US monetary policy while the global markets attempt to address their political and economic issues, we believe the US economy is uniquely strong in relation to other global economies and we believe the fear/greed factors will continue to increase over the next 15+ months or longer.

Gold and Silver are setting up to become some of the best trades we’ve seen in a very long time for us, technical traders.  We believe Silver could rally well above $30 over a very short period of time.  Don’t worry about the rotation in the metals markets as a reaction to the US Fed.  The real news is that the US Dollar has reached the upper price channel limit which should prompt a bigger upside move in the US metals.

CRUCIAL WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where each commodity and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Silver Should Pause At $16.75 Before Next Rally Starts

Our advanced Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting that the current Silver rally may be nearing a point where the price will pause and retrace a bit before advancing further.  The incredible breakout rally over the past few weeks in Silver was a real surprise for many investors.  The sleepy shiny metal that everyone thought was dormant broke well above the $15.50 level on huge volume and continued to rally to levels near $16.65.

We published some incredible research regarding the longer-term potential for precious metals – specifically the potential for Silver as the Gold/Silver ratio continues to decline.  Please take a minute to read this research post PART I.

We believe the upside potential for Silver is, at a minimum, targeting $26 to $34 for an immediate upside price objective.  Overall, longer-term, we believe Silver could rally well above $50 as the Gold/Silver ratio falls to levels below 65.

This Daily Silver chart highlights our Fibonacci price modeling system and shows you that price has already reached the upside price objectives for this current expansion leg.  Sometimes price may rally beyond these levels (in extreme trending), but we believe the recent pause in the rally suggests the price will rotate lower (to levels near $16) before attempting another upside rally leg.  We’ve highlighted what we believe will happen with arrows on the chart and we believe the next leg higher will align closer to the early August time-frame.

This Weekly Silver chart also highlights our Fibonacci price modeling system, yet it shows the longer-term price modeling results.  Overall, the CYAN level, near $16.65, is acting as our first level of moderate price resistance.  We believe the support from the previous price peak, drawn as a MAGENTA LINE, will act as support and price will rotate between current levels and this support level before forming a momentum base and attempting to move higher – targeting the $18 to $18.50 level.

Take advantage of this price rotation before the next move higher.  Silver is extremely undervalued in comparison to Gold.  Any reversion of the Gold/Silver ratio, which is already taking place, will mean that Silver will rally 30% to 60% faster than Gold rallies. This will happen because the disparity in price between Gold and Silver has reached an extreme level.  As precious metals rally, this disparity level decreases.  Silver moves higher much quicker because it continues to be extremely undervalued compared to Gold and is more affordable nicknamed “poor man’s gold”.

There are dozens of great trades setting up right now in preparation for the August 19 price peak/price rotation that we predicted months ago.  The markets are setting up for some really big swing trades and we urge all traders/investors to be prepared for these moves by joining my Wealth Building Newsletter

If you want to see 5 other crucial warning signs about the US markets topping and the pending gold and silver bull market just take a look at this short video and charts.

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where stocks are headed along with precious metals for the next 8-24 months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset NewsletterYou won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Silver Price Target during the Next Bull Market

It is time to explore the details of our Gold vs. Silver ratio research and to start to understand the potential for profits within this move in precious metals.  The first part of our research article highlighted the Gold vs. Silver ratio and why we believe the “reversion process” that is taking place in price could be an incredible opportunity for traders.

Historically, when the Gold vs. Silver ratio reaches an extreme level, and precious metals begin to rally, a reversion within the ratio takes place, which represents a revaluation process for silver prices compared to gold prices.  This typically means that the prices of Silver will accelerate to the upside as the price of gold moves higher – resulting in a decrease in the ratio level.

This reversion process related to precious metals pricing is an opportunity for traders to take advantage of an increased pricing advantage to generate profits.

For every drop of 5.0 points in the gold/silver ratio, the price of Silver should increase by 6.5% to 7.5% to the price of Gold.

This research is based on our belief that Gold and Silver will continue to rally and potentially enter a parabolic upside price advance soon.  If this takes place and precious metals begin to skyrocket higher, the ratio level will react in a hyperactive “reversion process” where Silver may move higher at a rate that is substantially faster than Gold.  This is the process that we are exploring and our researchers are attempting to shed some insight into this event.

I believe a reversion process has already begun to take place within the precious metals market.  We believe this reversion process is about to explode as a dramatic revaluation event unfolds over the next 12+ months.  This process will become more evident to traders as the price of Gold continues to rally towards the $1750+ level and as the price of Silver explodes higher in larger and larger advances.

Gold/Silver/US Dollar ratio chart

This Gold/Silver/US Dollar ratio chart is the basis of our analysis for the reversion process event and the associated revaluation event.  Our previous analysis suggests Gold will attempt a move to levels above $1650 to $1700 on the next breakout move higher.  This next upside price move will expose the price reversion event for all traders to witness and we have mapped out the expected Silver price advantage for all traders going forward.

Gold/Silver Ratio – Silver Price vs Ratio Level

We put together this reference table to assist all traders in understanding just how important this move could be to them.  This reference table shows the current Gold/Silver price levels (in GREY) as the ratio levels change from 88 to lower levels.

If the price of Gold were to stay at the same $1426 level while Silver rallied to prompt an 82 or 77 ratio level, the price of silver would move from the current price of $16.19 to $17.39 or $18.52 in order to reflect this decreased ratio level.  That represents a 7.5% to 14.3% price increase.

Yet if the price of Gold advances to $1650 or $1750 while the ratio level drops to the 82 or 77 ratio level (because Silver advances fast than Gold), then the price of Silver would move from the current price of $16.19 to $20.12 to $22.73.  That move represents a 24.2% to 40.3% price increase in Silver when Gold increased only 15.7% to 22.7%.

What If Silver Advances Quicker Than Gold?

If Silver advances even faster than our “what if” scenario, above, and Gold continues to advance as we expect, the increased price reversion process taking place in Silver as a process of this revaluation event could result in a 70% to 110% fast price advance in Silver than the price advance that takes place in Gold.

We believe the next upside price leg in Silver will target $19.50 to $22.75.  This target range supports the highlighted area on our Ratio table (below).  In other words, we believe the ratio level will attempt to quickly move toward the 70 to 77 level as Gold prices rally over the next few months.  This would push silver up into the $22.50 to $25 price level very quickly.

What If Gold Rallies Faster Than Silver?

If Gold were to rally above $1950 on an extended upside price advance before August or September, we believe the reversion process would become extremely hyperactive in nature and the price of Silver could push well above $29~34 per ounce – may be even higher.

This declining ratio level acts as a turbo-boost for the price of Silver as Gold continues to advance.  The recent rotation to the downside suggests the ratio relationship between Gold and Silver has already stated a reversion process – the only question is “where will it end?”.  Our researchers believe it will stop where it stops and we believe the 65 level on the Ratio chart is just the initial target for this first upside leg.

Imagine where Silver could go if the ratio level fell to levels below 40 and gold rallied to $2500 or more?  Ok, stop imagining and take a look at this second extended ratio table.

Pay attention to the fact that Silver could rally more than 300% if Gold moves up above $1750 and the Gold/Silver ratio drops below the 55 level.  If Gold were to continue to rally and the Gold/Silver ratio continued to fall, Silver could rally well above $50 over the long run.

Silver Price Range As Gold/Silver Ratio Move To the Average

We’ve attempted to graph the ranges of the expected move in Silver into segments based on the Gold/Silver ratio to assist traders in understanding just how powerful this setup really is.  Imagine what it would take for Gold to move up to levels above $1750 (which is our expected target for the next leg higher) and for Silver to rally into the 55 to 65 ratio level.  If that happens, the expected target price for Silver would be somewhere between $30 and $40 – more than 100% higher than the current price of Silver.

If you think $50 is unimaginable or unrealistic, we’ve just shown you why it is possible these levels could be reached before the end of 2019 or in 2020.  If you have not grasped the reality of what is likely to unfold over the next 6 to 12+ months in the global markets and that precious metals are the setup of the decade, then pay attention to the fact that gold and silver are poised for moves ranging from 40% to 240% over the next 12+ months depending on the scale and scope of this move.

Our current objectives for the ratio levels are still 55 to 65 within this next move higher where Gold will target $1750.  Beyond that level, we’ll have to update you as the price continues to explore new highs.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, don’t miss the trade of the decade. These opportunities for skilled technical traders over the next 16+ months is incredible.  Huge price swings, incredible trends, big rotations and we could see nearly 300%+ profits to be had if you know what to trade and when.  These types of opportunities are perfect for skilled technical traders like us and we want to help you prepare for and trade these opportunities.

This bear market for stocks and the new bull market for metals has been a long time coming, but finally, almost all the signs are showing that it’s about to start. As a technical analyst since 1997 having lost a fortune and making a fortune from bull and bear markets I have a good understanding of how to best attack the market during its various stages.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months – most traders/investors have simply not been looking for it.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar Shipped To You Free.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD & SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIPS

 

 

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

What Could The Next Gold Rally Look Like? Part I

I have been going over the past data to attempt to identify future price targets and to help traders understand the true potential for the current precious metals price rally.  We’ve been sharing our data and research with you for many months are pleased to continue to share our predictive modeling system’s outputs and data.  Today, we wanted to play a bit of “what if” with the data in an attempt to relate just how explosive this move in precious metals may be over the next 6 to 12+ months.

Given our belief that precious metals prices will hold last weeks breakout to the upside and that Gold will rally in a parabolic price mode, we have attempted to identify how Silver would react given the price advance of Gold and the historic price ratio between Gold vs. Silver.

A number of pricing dynamics are taking place throughout the global stock markets and the historical measures of price relationship in advancing and declining markets could help us better understand the potential upside for Silver as the price of Gold continues to rally.  Here we go with our “what if” results.

Gold Fibonacci Price Amplitude – Weekly Chart

You may remember when we were calling for Gold to rally from $1200 to just above $1300 earlier this year?  We warned that once this move completed, a pause and pullback back below $1300 would set up a “Momentum Base” near April 21 that would become the launchpad for a much bigger move to the upside.  Now that we’ve seen this setup complete almost exactly as we predicted months in advance, we are waiting for the price to breach the Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc that is currently acting as resistance for Gold (see the chart below).

Once this level is broken, we believe Gold will rally to levels near or above $1560 and attempt to set up another “Momentum Base” somewhere between $1560 and $1640.  This price level represents a key price zone where multiple price inflection points align and where a larger Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc exists.  It is very likely that price will run into resistance near this zone – although it may become very brief price resistance.

Let’s assume that Gold could target various upside price levels in the near future and that Gold may attempt to reach levels just below $2000 before the end of this year (2019).  We’ve broken our research into price segments that will help us understand and breakdown Gold price advancement levels for future reference.  We’ve selected : $1650, 1750, 1850 & 1950 price levels for our research.

The Gold/Silver ratio chart, below, highlights the incredible rotation we’ve recently witnessed as Silver exploded higher last week.  Gold followed this move higher roughly 24 hours later.  The ratio between the price of Gold vs. Silver was at historical highs near 93 just a few days ago.  Currently, it is at 88.1 – after Silver rallied to help close the price gap between the two metals.  As you can also see from this chart, historical normal price levels are much closer to the 45 to 65 range.

What happens when this Gold/Silver ratio value becomes extended is that Gold holds more value than Silver.  Silver is a precious metal that is often overlooked because Gold is the primary focus of metals traders.  Yet, when a panic hits the global stock markets and Gold begins to move dramatically higher, Silver becomes an incredible opportunity as traders pile into Silver expecting it to close the price ratio gap quickly.

How big is this price disparity between Silver and Gold?  How much more will Silver potentially rally if Gold hits certain key upside price targets?  You should take a look at my article talking about the best metal to own for 2019 and beyond here. I compare gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. Let’s find out and explore some really incredible opportunities.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Using special reference points, the current ratio level, and our expected ratio level, we can determine that for every drop of 5.0 points in the ratio level, the price of Silver should increase by 6.5% to 7.5% to the price of Gold.  Therefore, if Gold trades higher to $1500 and the ratio drops from 88 to 83, Silver should be trading at a level of $18.29.

We determined this ratio relationship process by identifying “anchor points” within the historic ratio chart, mapping out price levels that occur at these levels in advancing and declining metals markets, then mapping the corresponding ratio relationships so we could attempt to make these types of predictions.

Just wait to and see our PART II the shows what silver should do just reach a normal price ratio in tomorrows article!

I love to take on these types of challenges and to play “what if”.  The idea that we may find some unknown or unseen opportunity for traders and investors is very exciting.  We’ll share more of our research in Part II of this article and we’ll show you exactly what we expect to happen in the metals markets as the ratio continues to “revert”.

In short, the opportunities for skilled technical traders over the next 16+ months is incredible.  Huge price swings, incredible trends, big rotations and we could see nearly 300%+ profits to be had if you know what to trade and when.  These types of opportunities are perfect for skilled technical traders like us and we want to help you prepare for and trade these opportunities.

This bear market for stocks and the new bull market for metals has been a long time coming, but finally, almost all the signs are showing that it’s about to start. As a technical analyst since 1997 having lost a fortune and making a fortune from bull and bear markets I have a good understanding of how to best attack the market during its various stages.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months – most traders/investors have simply not been looking for it.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar Shipped To You Free.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I’M GIVING AWAY – FREE GOLD & SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIPS

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Gold and US Stock Election and Decade Cycles

Recently I have been trying to show all the different angles to look at and analyze the US stock market and the precious metals sector. At the end of this report, I will share with you several other crucial angles and charts you must see for our self.  There are several very intriguing things unfolding right now which are interconnected in ways you may not have known.

Gold Years and Seasonality

Let’s start off with the price of gold and what it typically does each month during the presidential election year, which is this year 2019. The graph below shows the average price movement during the elections since 1971 and I think the chart speaks for its self.

What I get from this, is that investors become uncertain with the future and accumulate gold. This years election I feel is much like a Midterm election. With recent past presidents, they have been in for two terms so this election, in my opinion, is much like a Midterm election if Trump stays in power.

This next chart is the seasonality of gold. Meaning which direction gold trades during each month on average every year. This second chart along with the election chart above both show gold tends to pull back the second half of July, so don’t be alarmed if it happens.

Dow Jones Election Years

The US stock market in general, but in this case, I’m using the Dow Jones industrial average you can see where stock prices should move during the rest of this year as we go into the November election.

Dow Jones Decade Cycle

As you may or may not know, I have a thing with cycles when it comes to trading. Yes, it seems a little far fetched and can be perceived as Voodoo to some people but statistics don’t lie and I have made an incredible living from the financial markets incorporating cycles in all my trades from long term investing right down to my 30-minute trading charts.

The website SeasonalCharts.com shares this really interesting information and chart about the decade cycle and I want to share it with you here:

“The stock market appears to follow a 10-year cycle. During the first half of the decade, equity prices on average do not increase, however in the second half they clearly do. In addition, U.S. equities have demonstrated very good performance in years ending with the number 5 (e.g. 1995 or 2005). Their average profit amounted to 30 %. That equals 40% of the average profit for the entire decade! 

The decade-cycle chart of the Dow Jones shows the average 10-year trend of the index over the last more than 100 years.”

As you can see from those four graphs the odds are pointing towards a market top in the US stock market based on statistics and long-term cycles. And for gold to become the investment of choice and rally the second half of this year.

Below are several other eye-opening charts about gold and US equities. You should take a quick look at each because what I’m sharing in this post and links below is more than enough to know where the markets are headed next. No need to look anywhere else and I think you will agree after you review each section. My analysis is logical, proven, and easy to understand the big picture trends no matter if you are a total newbie to the trading and the financial markets.

Top 5 Important Gold And Stock Market Analysis Posts

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

On June 17th I showed my chart of the transportation index forming a double top formation. It’s known that the transportation index leads the broad stock market and if the transports are breaking down then we must expect the bear market is close. I then went on to talk about the precious metals breakout with silver and silver miners leading the way. Gold miners broke out as well while gold continued to hold its bullish formation. See Transportation index double top.

Concluding Thoughts:

In short, this years election I feel is much like a Midterm election in terms of what stocks and gold should do. With recent past presidents, they have been in for two terms so this election, in my opinion, is much like a Midterm election if Trump stays in power. you should now have a firm grasp of where stocks are headed along with precious metals for the next few months and beyond. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

This bear market has been a long time coming, but finally, almost all the signs are showing that it’s about to start. As a technical analyst since 1997 having lost a fortune and made fortunes from bull and bear markets I have a good understanding of how to best attack the market during its various stages.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months – most traders/investors have simply not been looking for it.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD or SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

So kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

Right on the Gold Bull Market

 


Chris Vermeulen had been calling for a gold breakout for a number of months. Some FSN Members snarkily doubted his call. However, they’re not doubting him any longer, what with gold breaking resistance and now hovering near $1400 the ounce. Chris oil call was also remarkably on the money, with oil crashing to the low $50’s from the mid $60’s. Chris is calling for silver to soon join the fun and then it will be off to the races.

Click Here to Listen to the Audio