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Metals & The US Dollar – How It All Relates – Part II

This research post continues our effort to keep investors aware of the risks and shifting capital opportunities that are currently taking place in the global markets.  We started in PART I of this article by attempting to highlight how shifting currency valuations have played a very big role in precious metals pricing and how these currency shifts may ultimately result in various risk factors going forward with regards to market volatility.

Simply put, currency pricing pressures are likely to isolate many foreign markets from investment activities as consumers, institutions and central governments may need more capital to support localized economies and policies while precious metals continue to get more and more expensive.

One of the primary reasons for this shift in the markets is the strength of the US Dollar and the US Stock Market (as well as the strength in other mature economies).  The capital shift that began to take place in 2013-2014 was a shift away from risk and towards safer, more mature economic sources.  This shift continues today – in an even more heightened environment.  The volatility we are seeing in the US and foreign markets is related to this shift taking place as well as the currency valuation changes that continue to rattle the global markets.

US Dollar Index Weekly Chart

It is our opinion that, at some point, the support levels in foreign markets may collapse while the US and major mature global economies become safe-havens for assets.  When this happens, we’ll see the US Dollar rally even further which will push many foreign currencies into further despair.  The overall strength of the US Dollar is being supported by this continued capital shift and the way that global assets are seeking safety and security.  The same thing is happening in precious metals.

We believe the current setup in the US markets is indicative of a breakout/breakdown FLAG/Pennant formation.  We believe this current setup should prompt a very volatile price swing in the markets over the next 3 to 6+ months which may become the start of a broader event playing out in the foreign markets.  How this relates to precious metals is simply – more fear, more greed, more uncertainty equals a very strong rally in precious metals over the next 12+ months.

Dow Jones Index Chart

This Dow Jones chart highlights what we believe is a very strong Resistance Channel that needs to be broken if the US stock market is going to attempt to push higher in the future.  You can also see the BLUE lines we’ve drawn on this chart that sets up the FLAG/Pennant formation.  Although price broke through the lows of the FLAG/Pennant formation, we still consider it valid because it confirms on other US major indexes.  Should the Dow Jones fail to move above the previous price high, near early July 2019, then we believe the Resistance Channel will reject price near current levels and force it lower (filling a recent gap and targeting the $25,500 level or lower).

Custom Volatility Index Chart

Our Custom Volatility Index chart shows a similar type of setup.  Price weakness is evident near the upper channel level of this chart.  This chart is very helpful for our research team because it puts price peaks and troughs into perspective within a “channeling-type” of rotating range.  You can see that previous major price peaks have always settled above 16 or 17 on this chart.  And previous major price bottoms have always settled below 7 or 8 on this chart.  The current price volatility level is just above 13 – just entering the weakness zone in an uptrend.  If price were to fail near this level, a move toward 8 would not be out of the question.  We just have to watch and see how price reacts over the next few weeks to determine if these weakness channels will push price lower.

Gold Monthly Chart

If our research is correct, the entire move higher in precious metals, originating near the bottom in December 2015, is a complex wave formation setting up a WAVE 1 upside move.  This complex wave formation is likely to consist of a total of 5 price waves (as you can see from the chart below) and will likely end with Gold trading well above the $2000 price level near or before June 2020.

If this analysis is correct, we are about to enter a very big, volatile and potentially violent price move in the global markets that could rip your face off if you are not prepared.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS”

This BEAST of a market is about to explode as we’ve highlighted by this research and these charts.  It may start ripping our faces off in less than 30 days or it could take longer.  One thing is for sure, the global markets are set up for something big and precious metals are beating our foreheads saying “hey, look over here!!  This is where risk is trailing into as the markets continue to set up for this volatile price move!!”.

If you are not ready for this move, then we suggest you visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you stay ahead of these big swings in the markets.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I have had a series of great trades this month. In fact, over the past 20 months, my trading newsletter portfolio has generated over 100% return when compounded for members. And we locking in more profits on Tuesday with the Russell 2000 index. So, if you believe in technical analysis, then this is the newsletter and market condition for you to really shine.

Be prepared for these price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime 

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH SUBSCRIPTION!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Metals & The US Dollar: How It All Relates – Part I

The recent movement in the precious metals markets, an incredible 33% upside price move since August 2018, has reflected an increased level of fear and greed throughout the global markets.  Particularly, throughout the foreign markets.  Precious metals, specifically Gold, has skyrocketed to some of the highest levels in recent times as foreign currencies devalue against the US Dollar.  Still, consumers, institutions and central governments/banks are buying as much as they can right now.

12 Month Capital Shift Seen in Currencies

As we have been suggesting over the past 12+ months, a capital shift continues to play out in the global markets where capital is actively seeking the best, most secure locations for investment and we believe that will result in strength in mature global economies.  Take a look at this chart of various foreign currencies to understand how this capital shift process is really playing out across the globe. Be sure to opt-in to our Free Trade Ideas Newsletter.

Japan, Canada, Switzerland are all experiencing moderate price weakness against the US Dollar – yet these mature economies are fairing better than many others.  The relationship between the EUR and the GPB appears to be relatively stable as both currencies have dramatically weakened over the past 16+ months – almost in perfect alignment.  Comparatively, the other currencies within this display have experienced dramatic price weakness over the past 4+ years in relationship to the US Dollar and their associated PAIR currencies.

Gold Price Comparison In Other Currencies

The recent upside price move in precious metals exasperates the issue of localized consumption/acquisition of Gold/Silver as pricing pressures continue to push local pricing higher and higher.  We are still very early in the bullish price cycle for precious metals.  As increased fear and greed enter the markets over the next 15+ months, we believe the scramble to acquire physical metals and market positions will continue to increase even further.

These Gold Price Comparison charts, below, show just how dramatic the upward price move has been for foreign investors in local currencies.  In US Dollar terms, Gold has risen just over 33% (approx: $350 USD).  In Canadian Dollar terms, it has risen 30% over the past year (approx: $475 CAD).  In Australian Dollar terms, it has risen just over 34% (approx: $590 AUD).  In Chinese Yuan terms, it has risen just over 36% (approx: $$2,965 CNY).  In Indian Rupee terms, it has risen just over 29% (approx: $2,545 INR).  The reality is that precious metals have gotten very expensive for foreign investors in local currencies – and this is just starting to the metals rally.

The primary reason for this is the continued capital shift that has been taking place over the past 2 to 4+ years.  As the global markets entered a period where commodity prices started collapsing (2014 in Oil), the global markets started shifting away from emerging markets and risky assets/investments.  The hunt for more secure investment sources was on.

When Oil bottomed in early 2016, a reprieve in investor sentiment settled into the markets where expansion into more risky assets took place.  All of this changed with the top formation in the US stock market in early 2018 and the downside price rotation in Oil in October 2018.  Now, as precious metals start to rally and clearly illustrate that fear and greed are entering the markets, the continued hunt for secure, mature economic environments continue at a record pace.

In Part II of this research post, we’ll highlight why we believe the global markets are just starting a dramatic shift that will likely continue to unfold throughout the next 24+ months and why we believe it is important for all skilled technical traders to understand the risks that are present in the current global markets.  This is not your simple trending global market any longer (think pre-2014) – this is a BEAST.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I have had a series of great trades this month. In fact, over the past 20 months, my trading newsletter portfolio has generated over 100% return when compounded for members. And we locking in more profits on Tuesday with the Russell 2000 index. So, if you believe in technical analysis, then this is the newsletter and market condition for you to really shine.

Be prepared for these price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH SUBSCRIPTION!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

BIG PICTURE LOOK AT WHAT IS DRIVING GOLD

Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders joins me to take a look at the precious metals market and assess the other markets that need to be noted. We start with the USD and the recent relationship between the two. Next is the action in silver and platinum as they are playing catch up. Finally, we look at the US markets and the potential of a breakout higher or breakdown and how each of these would impact the PMs. Be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

I believe our super-cycle research and other proprietary modeling systems are suggesting that price weakness will dominate the markets for the next few months. Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis and recession.

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH SUBSCRIPTION!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Global market Chaos means Precious Metals will Continue to Rise

Reading the new today of the riots and protests in Hong Kong as well as the military action between Iran and Israel suggests to us that the metals markets are poised for a very big run this week and possibly much further into the future.

This type of Chaos creates a level of uncertainty in the global markets that will prompt a massive surge in the precious metals markets as traders and investors continue to pour into precious metals as a means to hedge against fear and weakness in the global markets.  At this point, we believe a move in Gold could easily target $1640 or higher and Silver could target just under $21 over the next 5 to 10 days.  This type of move would represent a +7 to 10% rally in Gold and a +10 to 20% rally in Silver.

Pay attention to how the ES, NQ, and YM react to trading as markets open on Sunday and Monday evening as well as the news events related to these issues.  Any escalation of tensions and fighting between parties throughout the world will likely shed shock waves throughout the global economy as well as prompt a contraction in price levels.

We attempted to warn all of our followers that the August 19th breakdown super-cycle event would likely present a massive potential for a price correction to the downside.  These super-cycle events operate on a much broader scale and scope than most people realize.  A delay of 20 to 30 days for an event to begin is equal to a span of 10 seconds in the larger scope and perspective of these bigger events.  Pay attention as this move really begins to play out over the next 25+ days.

Weekly Gold Chart

This weekly gold chart has followed our expectations from April/May 2019 almost perfectly.  Our original target of just below $1600 has almost been reached.  Now, with the global chaos playing out in China, Hong Kong, and other locations, we believe Gold could rally well past the $1600 and possibly move as high as $1640 to $1675 before attempting to stall and rotate.

What is interesting is that the price of gold is hitting new highs is most other currencies. This is something we will talk about in another article here shortly, so be sure to opt-in to our Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter

Weekly Silver Chart

Silver, which has continued to impress even the most passive traders. It has continued to outperform Gold over the past 30+ days.  Overall, our original target range of $18.75 – $21 is still valid, but we believe the true upside potential in silver is well past $34.  Right now, we believe Silver could rally well past $24 as the chaos in the foreign markets rattles global investors.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

If you followed our research over the past few months, you would have already known about these setups and trades.  If not, now is the time to pay attention.  The markets are going to react to this foreign market chaos by attempting to find true price valuation levels related to the fear and future economic expectations of the entire market.  Get ready for some really big moves over the next 8+ weeks.

As we’ve been suggesting for more than 12 months, 2019 and 2020 are going to be fantastic years for skilled technical traders or subscribers of our Weal Building Newsletter.  The potential for big trades (20% or more), like our recent UGLD 24% trade, will continue to set up in different sectors and global markets.  All we need to do is stay on top of the opportunities to find ways to profit from these moves.

We believe our super-cycle research and other proprietary modeling systems are suggesting that price weakness will dominate the markets for the next few months. Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis and recession.

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH SUBSCRIPTION!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Precious Metals About To Pull A Crazy Ivan

Nearly a month ago, we authored our “Crazy Ivan” research post suggesting that precious metals were about to pull a massive “crazy price move” while the US and Global markets breakdown in an attempt to revalue risk, support, resistance, and other unknown factors trying to “revalue” price to more suitable levels given future expectations.

The moves in Gold and Silver over the past 4+ weeks has been incredible.  The biggest surprise is in silver, even though we called this move as well.  The way precious metals prices transition through periods of risk or fear is that Gold increases in value as fear drives investors into Gold.  Whereas, Silver, the lesser shiny metal, which has seen prices further depressed over the past 5+ years, attempts to revert to a less depressed “fair value” to Gold.  This process happens every time Gold begins to move substantially higher and results in an incredible opportunity for Silver traders. But first, be sure to opt-in to our free market forecast newsletter

What is the Crazy Ivan event?  It is our belief that Gold and Silver will attempt to rally well beyond levels most analysts have been predicting for this year.  In fact, we believe Gold could be trading above $1750+ before the end of 2019 because of this Crazy Ivan event that we believe is unfolding right now.  This event is based on our belief that a massive shift in the capital will take place as soon as the US major indexes break below key support.  Once this support is broken, we believe the Crazy Ivan event will really begin to take form.

August 9, 2019: PART II – METALS AND VIX ARE ABOUT TO PULL A “CRAZY IVAN”

August 8, 2019: PART I – METALS AND VIX ARE ABOUT TO PULL A “CRAZY IVAN”

Gold Weekly Price Chart

Our research team believes Gold will have one last period where the price will pause before attempting to rally much further.  In fact, we believe Gold will potentially retrace to levels near or below $1500 one last time before the real Crazy Ivan event is unleashed.  This means we should be patient and wait for the next setup in Gold and Silver before jumping into any new trades.

Gold should pause near $1600, roll a bit lower towards the $1500 level near the end of September 2019, then begin setting up another “momentum base” to launch into the next rally.  Skilled technical traders should be very aware of this setup and not try to chase short term trades at this point.   Wait for the rotation to setup and wait for the momentum base before entering your next Gold trades.

Silver Weekly Price Chart

Silver will likely Follow Gold in this manner and rotate by a smaller amount – likely only $0.60 to $0.75 from a peak near $18.75.  Therefore, any opportunity to buy Silver below or near $18 is still a valid entry point before the next big move higher.

We, honestly, hope you were following our research last year and earlier this year where we continued to urge our followers and members to load up on physical metals while they could (before this big move started).  Even right now, you can still take advantage of the relatively low price levels before the next big move higher.

Check out these exciting charts full of opportunities that we will be sharing.

RAY DALIO SAYS BUY GOLD AND ERIC SPROTT IS A MEGA HOLDER OF METALS ESPECIALLY SILVER!

A recent article by Ray Dalio, he stated gold is the asset in which we should all be accumulating as it will be a top performer globally when things start to fall apart. On May 31st Eric Sprott talked about my gold forecast in detail. Since then I have accumulated more gold and silver from Eric Sprott’s company https://www.SprottMoney.com/ and you should too.


Eric Sprott Gold & Silver

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

This is the start of the Crazy Ivan price move we warned you about nearly a month ago.  We need to wait for one last minor price rotation in both Gold and Silver before the bigger Crazy Ivan price event hits.  We are only 7 to 14 days away from the start of that event.  Wait for Gold to rotate as we suggest and set up the Momentum Base near the middle of September – then get ready for the next leg of the Crazy Ivan even to hit. Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH SUBSCRIPTION!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Precious Metals ADL Predictions Getting Ready For A Big Move

This weekend we thought we would share some really important data and charts with all of you precious metals bugs/traders (like us).  You probably remember our October 5th, 2018 call in Gold that has set off an incredible series of events for all of us.  We made a prediction that day that Gold would rotate higher from the $1200 level targeting the $1300 level, then stall and move lower to set up a “momentum base” near April 21~24 before accelerating much higher after June/July 2019.  Our original research chart is shown below. But first, be sure to opt-in to our free market forecast newsletter

This incredible research targeted the $1600+ level by September/November 2019.  We are only about $70 away from that level right now and we have new ADL research to share with all of our followers.

If you are a fan of our research or you can understand the value of the ADL predictive modeling system and what we have highlighted for our followers – you already know that any future ADL predictions for precious metals should be of particular interest to all of you.  What are metals going to do over the next few months and how can you prepare for this move, let us help you try to prepare for this next move.

Check out these exciting charts full of opportunities that we will be sharing.

This Gold Monthly chat highlighting the ADL predictive modeling system results shows why gold traders need to be patient and wait for the next setup.  That setup exists over the next 30 days as the ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting that Gold will attempt a downside price rotation to levels near $1490 before attempting another rally back above $1600.  This is the next proper price rotation setup that traders need to look for.  The second setup occurs in Jan/Feb 2020 where the price is expected to rotate from above $1600 to levels near $1540 before launching into another big rally to levels above $1870.

The Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is one of the most incredible price modeling tools we use in our research.  We’ve just shown you what our research tools believe Gold will do over the next 14+ months.  We believe we are helping more traders and investors by proving our incredible research tools work better than any other technology solutions available in the market right now and are proving it by posting these types of charts many months before price can attempt to prove or disprove our research.

Now, one of the biggest moves is going to be in Silver and we’ve all been waiting for the incredible reversion of the Gold/Silver ratio.  It is at that point when Silver begins to rally faster than Gold is rallying that we will see a true reversion in the Gold/Silver ratio.  That event will result in an incredible rally in silver that could push the price of silver above $35 to $40 per ounce – or higher.

Our ADL predictive modeling system running on a Quarterly Silver chart highlights the opportunity that still exists for metals traders.  Silver will continue to rally as Gold rolls higher.  Silver will continue to rally to levels just below $20 over the next 8+months.  The big breakout to the upside starts to take place Q3 2020.  That move will push Silver prices to levels above $20 where a brief rotation will take place.  By Q1 2021, the price of silver will be rallying extensively and the cat will be out of the bag in terms of what or why the metals are skyrocketing.

These moves in precious metals are going to be once of the most incredible opportunities for investors.  There will be other swings in market sectors and major global market indexes as well.  This is the time for all traders/investors to take advantage of the resources that are available to learn to take advantage of these setups.  Our research team continues to deliver some of the most incredible research and predictive modeling results anyone has ever seen.  If you can not see the value of being able to see 14 to 24 months into the future.

We urge you to consider finding resources and a team of researchers that can assist you over the next 12+ months as the moves in the global markets are going to be incredibly large and varied.  Now is the time to take advantage of these opportunities and to find the right partners to assist you in finding the right trades.

CRUCIAL WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

THIS IS A KEY WEEK FOR US MARKETS, GOLD, AND OIL

Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders shares his thoughts on why this week is important for the US markets, gold, and oil. All of these are near strong support or resistance levels where if a break happens could result in an extended run. We breakdown the scenario for each market and level that are most important.

I can tell you that huge moves are starting to folding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these supercycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I urge you to visit my ETF Wealth Building Trading Newsletter  and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

All Eyes On Copper

Copper is a fairly strong measure of the strength and capacity of the global economy and global manufacturing.  Right now, Copper has been under quite a bit of pricing pressure and has fallen from levels above $4.50 (near 2011) to levels near $2.55.  Most recently, Copper has rotated higher to levels near $3.25 after President Trump was elected on November 2016, yet has recently fallen as trade and global economic concerns become more intense.

This should be viewed as a strong warning sign that institutional traders and investors are very concerned that the future economic and manufacturing activities throughout the world are continuing to contract.  Copper is used in various forms throughout all types of manufacturing and consumer products, such as computers, building & infrastructure, electronics, chemical & medical use as well as automobile and aircraft manufacturing.  It makes sense that copper prices would be a leading indicator for much of the global economy and relate to economic output and capacity.

Copper Monthly Long Term Chart

As the US/China trade war continues and we enter the final stretch of the US Presidential election cycle, we believe that copper will breakdown below the $2.50 level and attempt to identify past support levels below slightly $1.50 over the next 6 to 12+ months.  We believe the next big move in commodities will be a contraction move where certain commodities (mostly manufacturing & industrial related) will collapse as the world focuses on two of the most important events that are about to conclude in 16+ months: the US Presidential elections and the Global Trade/Economic issues.

Copper Monthly Pennant Pattern

The breakdown in commodity prices as related to slower expectations and global economic demand may see a dramatic downside move or may see a more measured “slide” towards the $1.45 level (much like what we saw happen between 2013 and 2016).  Overall, though, we believe the downside price move outweighs the upside at this time – unless some type of dramatic resolution to the US/China trade issues and global economic slowdown are ended.

We’ve also highlighted an extended long-term Pennant/Flag formation in Copper that should provide further insight as to the range of price rotation before the bigger breakdown in price occurs.  This pennant formation will likely contain the immediate price range/rotation over the next few months to between $2.30 to $3.00.  Should price break below the $2.25 level within the next 2~6+ months, then we would expect an immediate downside move towards the $1.50 level.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Following the core commodities as related to global economic and manufacturing demand and capacity are key elements to understanding how traders and investors are viewing the future expectations for the global markets.  Commodities like Copper, Gold, Silver, Oil, Natural Gas and others can often be leading indicators related to global economic output and expectations.  We urge all traders to prepare for a broader market contraction event over the next 6 to 12+ months based on our research that suggests Copper is setting up for a breakdown move.

These global market price swings in 2019 and 2020 are going to be huge events that will present incredible opportunities for skilled technical traders.  You don’t want to miss out on the opportunity these types of big moves present. In fact, last week we closed out 24.16% in profits for the first week of August and you can see the charts here.

Following the core commodities as related to global economic and manufacturing demand and capacity are key elements to understanding how traders and investors are viewing the future expectations for the global markets.  Commodities like Copper, Gold, Silver, Oil, Natural Gas, and others can often be leading indicators related to global economic output and expectations.  We urge all traders to prepare for a broader market contraction event over the next 6 to 12+ months based on our research that suggests Copper is setting up for a breakdown move.

These global market price swings in 2019 and 2020 are going to be huge events that will present incredible opportunities for skilled technical traders.  You don’t want to miss out on the opportunity these types of big moves present.

Recently warning that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

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Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Part II – Metals and VIX Are About To Pull A “Crazy Ivan”

In the first part of this multi-part research post, we highlighted what we are calling a Crazy Ivan price event (borrowed from the movie Red October – (source).  The one thing we want you to take away from this article is that August 19, 2019, should be a major price inflection date where the price is very likely to begin a new downside price trend in the US and global stock markets.  This will likely push commodity prices to extremes and may very well push Gold and Silver into the stratosphere as fear and greed take hold across the planet.

Part I we highlighted how the VIX and the NQ are set up to react to this Crazy Ivan pricing event and how we believe many traders/investors are simply unaware of the potential for this type of large reversion price move.  We want to be clear, we believe the US markets will be somewhat immune from extended downside risks.  This does not mean there won’t be a downside price move and this does not mean that the markets won’t experience the Crazy Ivan reversion trend.  It will likely happen just as we are expecting, yet we believe the US stock markets will quickly recover from this move – like it has done many times in the past.

Our research that highlighted this August 19, 2019 date and the potential for what we are calling the Crazy Ivan price move is rooted in our super-cycle analysis, predictive modeling tools, and other specialized proprietary price modeling solutions and utilities.  We believe we’ve identified a key inflection point/date that will start what we are calling a “breakdown move” which will lead to the Crazy Ivan event throughout the globe.  As we stated in the first part of this article – we don’t know the exact composition of this event yet, but we do know that is should begin to happen near or after August 19, 2019.

Now, let’s get busy digging into the Gold and Silver charts for all our followers.

Gold 2-Week Chart Interval

This first Gold 2-Week chart highlights our Fibonacci price modeling tool and helps to show us where the price is targeting for the initial upside move from the April 21~24 Momentum Base pattern that we called back in January 2019.  We believe the current breakout upside price move will initially target the  $1597 level before briefly stalling, then rallying further to target the $1785 level or higher.

We believe the Crazy Ivan event could push Gold much higher than our projected levels under certain circumstances:

A. The US Dollar weakens throughout the initial process of the Crazy Ivan event

B.  Cryptos collapse as governments clamp down on rogue exchanges/currencies

C.  Massive credit and debt issues arise in China, Asia or the EU that threaten future economic output and operations

D.  Some type of crisis event unfolds where global investors believe war or conflict is imminent. (think Hong Kong, North Korea or somewhere in that general vicinity).

Without these additional impetuses in the metals market, we believe the price will follow our Crazy Ivan expectations (YELLOW LINES, below) fairly closely over the next 30 to 60+ days.

Silver Daily Chart Interval

Silver, on the other hand, is set up to break substantially higher based on the upside move we expect in Gold and the possibility that the Gold/Silver ratio will continue to contract to lower levels.  Recently, the Gold/Silver ratio fell from approximately 93 to 86.  This move relates the total number of ounces of Silver one must buy to equal the price of one ounce of Gold.  Currently, this level is back up to 89.5 as Gold has rallied faster than Silver has rallied.

But what happens when traders catch onto the fact that Gold and Silver will rally as this Crazy Ivan event takes place and that Silver is the true undervalued metal across the planet?  At the peak of Gold/Silver prices near April 2011, the Gold/Silver ratio was resting near 32 (yes you read that properly).  What would that look like on the Silver chart, below, if Gold continued to rally to levels above $2000?  It is really simple to find out.

$2000 (Gold per ounce) / 32 = $62.50 per ounce for Silver

What if Gold rallied a full 100% Fibonacci measured move from the previous 1999-2011 rally?  That peak level would be $2700 in Gold and the calculation is still simple.

$2700 (estimate Gold peak) / 32 = $84.375 per ounce for Silver.

Could it happen like this?  Yes, in theory, and reality it really could happen that Gold rallies to a level that equals a full 100% Fibonacci price extension and the ratio level falls to levels near 32.  If that were to happen, then these calculations would be accurate.

This is why we believe the Crazy Ivan event will become the catalyst for some really incredible trading opportunities and big price swings over the next 6 to 13+ months.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Our $21 upside price target in Silver is really muted compared to our long term price projections.  Yet everything hinges on this August 19, 2019 breakdown cycle date and what happens after that.  Our research suggests this current downside price move may have been a volatility explosion related to the lack of liquidity in the global markets and to hint that the markets are capable of being far more irrational for far longer than anyone expects.

We are only 9 days into August and we have already closed out 24.16% in gains from the falling SP500 using SDS, and the pop in gold using UGLD, and from the oversold bounce and rally in silver miners SIL.

We urge all of our followers to pay attention to our research, consider your options very closely and prepare for this next move by pulling some of your active portfolio away from risks and into more protective measures.  This Crazy Ivan event is just 10 days away and we really want to urge all of our followers to not under-estimate this event cycle.

WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

BECOME A TECHNICAL TRADER AND PROFIT
CLICK HERE

Chris Vermeulen

Metals and VIX Are About To Pull A “Crazy Ivan” – Part I

We’re borrowing a term from the movie Red October (source) that describes an unusual change of direction for a Russian submarine with the intent to seek out enemies and unknown targets – called a “Crazy Ivan”.  We are using this term because we believe the markets are about to pull a very unusual “Crazy Ivan” move of their own – reverting to unknown price levels while the US/Global markets attempt to seek out risk, support, resistance and other unknown “revaluation” targets in the process.

Our belief is that a key cycle date, August 19, 2019, will be the start of a breakdown in the US markets that aligns with some outside type of catalyst event.  It could be that foreign central banks issue some news or warning at that time or it could be that Asia/China issue some type of catalyst to the event.  We don’t know what the catalyst will be but we can guess that it will be related to geopolitics or the global economy/credit/debt issues.  God forbid it to be some type of war or human crisis event – we really don’t need that right now.

Please review these earlier research posts for more information :

July 24, 2019: PART II – BLACK HOLE IN GLOBAL BANKING IS BEING EXPOSED

July 24, 2019: SILVER PRICE TARGET DURING THE NEXT BULL MARKET

July 20, 2019: US & GLOBAL MARKETS SETTING UP FOR A VOLATILITY EXPLOSION – ARE YOU READY?

July 13, 2019: MID-AUGUST IS A CRITICAL TURNING POINT FOR US STOCKS

Our job as research analysts is to highlight what we believe is likely to happen and why we believe it is likely to happen.  Therefore, without guessing as to the cause of the event, let’s focus on the “Crazy Ivan” event and how we can attempt to profit from it.

First, let’s take a look at the VIX chart.  The VIX basing level (the lowest level the VIX has attained between price spikes) has been increasing as US stock market volatility continues to increase.  The nature of the calculations that make up the VIX would suggest this increase in basing levels would happen as extended volatility continues to be present in the markets – so this is expected.  What is not expected is the August 19th price inflection point that we believe will drive an unexpected price reversion in the US and global stock markets.  We believe this cycle inflection date is key to understanding how the markets will react going into the end of 2019 and beyond.

If our analysis is correct, then we believe a breakdown in the US and global markets will occur on or shortly after August 19, 2019, where the US stock markets are poised for a -15% to -25% price reversion.  This downside move in the US stock market would set up an incredible “price anomaly” for skilled technical traders that should provide an incredible opportunity for future profits.

We believe the ultimate downside potential for this move may last all the way through the end of 2019 and into early 2020 – although we can’t be certain yet as to the depth and severity of this move using our predictive modeling tools and utilities.  All we know is that it is about to happen based on what our predictive modeling tools are telling us and we have continued to try to warn you of this move for the past few months.  So here it is – the Crazy Ivan (as we’re calling it).

Any VIX rally that pushes the price above 30 or 40 would have to be rather severe compared to previous rotations.  The spikes on this chart related as follows on the NQ chart :

Early May VIX Spike to 23.31 resulted in a -938.25 point move (-11.91%) in the NQ

The current August VIX spike to 24.80 resulted in a -848.75 point move (-10.54%) in the NQ.

What would a move to above 32 in the VIX look like on the NQ chart?  How about a move to above 42 on the VIX?  Hello Crazy Ivan.

This next chart of the NQ on a monthly basis highlights our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system at work.  This utility helps us to understand where the price will want to target in the future and also helps us to understand trend and outlying price trends (or price anomalies).  Price anomalies happen when price moves substantially away from where the ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting price wants to be at.  Thus, if the price of the NQ were to fall below $5500 very quickly (think Crazy Ivan) and our ADL modeling tool suggests that price really wants to be at $6800 at that time, then we have a $3300 price anomaly setting up.  This is a type of reactive price anomaly that suggests price is way off target and will attempt to revert to levels closer to the ADL predictive price levels.

We believe the Crazy Ivan event could push the price of the NQ much lower than our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting and create a price anomaly that may become one of the most profitable trades near the end of 2019.

You can see from this ADL predictive modeling chart that price is expected to be lower near the end of 2019, but steadily climb higher into early 2020.  If price were to end up below 6400 by the end of 2019, that would set up a 1000+ point price anomaly setup that could become an incredible upside price move in early 2020.  Time will tell as this Crazy Ivan event plays out.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In the second part of this article, we’ll study the Crazy Ivan event in the metals and show you what we believe will happen to both Gold and Silver as this event plays out.  You won’t want to miss this one.

WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

Become a technical trader and profit like a pro!
Click Here

Chris Vermeulen