Posts

Is Silver & Gold Mirroring 1999 to 2011 Again?

Our research team continues to dig into underlying patterns and set up in the global markets to assist skilled technical traders in understanding the current Covid-19 virus event and other key technical data.  Recently, we’ve authored a number of detailed research articles that we believe helped prepare traders for the events of the past 30 to 90+ days.  If you missed them, please take a moment to review some of our critical market research posts:

February 24, 2020: HAS THE EQUITIES WATERFALL EVENT STARTED OR A BUYING OPPORTUNITY?

January 31, 2020: A COMBINATION TOPPING PATTERN IS SETTING UP

December 20, 2019: WHO SAID TRADERS AND INVESTOR ARE EMOTIONAL RIGHT NOW?

Today, we are writing about a pattern our research team is seeing in the Gold/Silver ratio which is correlated to the price movement of Gold.  What does this mean and how can we profit from this setup?  Let’s get started trying to explain this chart pattern/setup.

GOLD:SILVER RATIO CHART FROM A NEW ANGLE

This first chart highlights the pattern we have identified and how we believe a similar pattern is setting up again in the current market.  The setup of the pattern is explained in the text below, but quickly scroll down and look at the first chart and the pink shaded areas “A” to get an idea of what we are talking about.

PRIOR TO “A” PATTERN SETUP

_ After a moderate price decline in Gold (1996 through 2001), a bottom sets up as the price of Gold begins to base near support.

_  The Gold/Silver ratio (BLUE), falls throughout this pattern setup as both Gold and Silver prices decline somewhat in unison.

THE SETUP “A”

_  Gold prices begin to rally moderately while pushing the Gold/Silver ratio higher over an extended period of time (from 1999 to 2003: about 4 years).

_ The Gold/Silver ratio peaks and begins to decline in mid-2003 as the price of Gold continues to rally at a bit more accelerated rate.

_ Gold prices begin a parabolic upside price advance in early 2006 after the Gold/Silver ratio collapses about 18% to 20% from the peak level near 82.50.

We believe a similar type of pattern is setting up right now in the metals market and we believe both Gold and Silver will engage in a price advance over the next 10+ months that may be similar to the post-A set up in mid-2003.  If you are familiar with what happened in the metals market at that time, Silver began to advance at a faster rate than the price of Gold advanced.  This is what caused the Gold/Silver ratio to begin to collapse.

Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

SILVER MONTHLY CHART FROM 1993 TO 2004

This Silver chart from 1993 to 2004 clearly shows how the price of Silver was reacting throughout the setup prior to “A” and after “A” in the chart (above).  Silver began a moderate price advance in 1993 from a level near $3.50 and advanced to a level near $7.50 in 1998.  Then, it began a downside price move to reach new lows in 2002.  At that point, the markets changed.  Gold and Silver began to advance almost in unison with Gold still advancing slightly more than Silver until early/mid-2003.  Once Silver broke dramatically higher, in late 2003-04, the Gold/Silver ratio started breaking downward instead of upward.  This is the pattern we are seeing in the metals market right now.

We believe the recent rotation in the metals market and the dramatic price divergence between Gold and Silver are setting up another similar type of pattern that could prompt both Silver and Gold to rally upward from current levels by at least 200%.

CURRENT SILVER MONTHLY CHART

The extremely deep price retracement on this Monthly Silver chart (below) highlights what we believe is a deep washout low price rotation that is setting up the “disconnect” as we have tried to explain in the Gold/Silver ratio chart and historical Silver chart (above).  Yes, Gold also moved dramatically lower over the past 2+ weeks illustrating the shock to the markets that took place as the Covid-19 virus event disrupted the US and global markets.  But our researchers believe this dramatic washout low in Silver is setting up a much bigger pattern, longer-term than most people understand.

Recently, news that global precious metals suppliers have received a tremendous surge of orders for the physical stock over the past 2+ weeks (source: https://www.msn.com).  In fact, many global suppliers and mints are simply “out of stock” at the moment.  This surge in demand changes the dynamics of the market and how we look at the washout low in Silver.

If demand continues to surge, which we have no reason to doubt at this stage of the Covid-19 virus event, and Silver begins to rally as it did in 2002~2005, then the Gold/Silver ratio will begin to collapse just as it did in 2003~2007 (see the first chart – Post “A”).  This means the demand for metals is skyrocketing and Silver has suddenly become a more “in demand” physical metal than Gold.

You want a reality check on how to trade gold, silver and the stock market in this type of market condition be sure to check this out.

CURRENT GOLD WEEKLY CHART

We believe the next phase of price action in Gold is a move above $1990 as demand for metals continues to surge.  This would represent a 100% Fibonacci price expansion of the last price rally from the lows set in September 2018 (near $1168).  It would also represent a rally from the current level of at least +22.50% in Gold.  Subsequently, if Silver begins to rally at a greater rate than Gold over this same span of time, Silver could rally to levels above $22 representing a +53% price rally according to our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system (the CYAN target on the chart above).

Pay attention to the Gold/Silver ratio and the price of Silver compared to Gold over the next 30 to 60+ days.  If our research is correct, the current low price of Silver will be a distant memory in less than 60 days and a tandem price advance in both Gold and Silver will propel the metals much higher.  How much higher?  From 2003 to the peak in 2011, Gold rallied 450% (from $350 to over $1900).  Over that same span of time, Silver rallied 1024% (from $4.50 to just under $50).

If we are right about this pattern setup and the future opportunities it may present, we could see Silver trading above $160 per ounce within 4 to 7 years.  Can you guess where Gold would likely be trading if Silver rallied 1000% from current levels?  Don’t miss this next big move in the metals.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for short-term swing traders.

Visit my ETF Trading Newsletter and if you like what I offer, and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

High Yield Bond and Transports Signal Gold By Signal

Technical Analysis is the theory that price relates all news, fundamental and correlative future expectations into current and recent price activity.  It is the theory that price is the ultimate indicator and that charts paint a very clear picture for those individuals that are capable of understanding the message that is being presented.

In this research article, we are going to highlight the technical analysis components that we believe are painting a very clear picture that an “early warning” signal is flashing very brightly in the US and Global markets right now.

Cross market analysis and methods of rationalizing true price rotation, valuation and trend become the foundation of most technical analysis.  Studies, technical indicators, advanced price theory and all the rest of the tools we use are ways for us to better understand what price is actually showing us.  Today, we are going to focus on Gold, High Yield Corporate Bonds, and the Transportation Index because combined they are telling us something big is close to happening.

Before you continue, take a second and join my free trend trade signals email list.

Gold is a safe-haven instrument that measures uncertainty, fear, greed and the future expectations related to a secure global market economy.  When a crisis, economic or other uncertainty fears are minimized, Gold tends to move lower or consolidate into a lower price range.  When fears, economic uncertainty or any type of crisis event is causing concerns for global investors, Gold then begins to move higher as a measure of protection from risk and fear of any type of crisis event.

PRICE OF GOLD – BULL FLAG WITHIN A BULL MARKET

Gold has recently rallied well above the $1400 level and formed a large Bullish Flag pattern.  The recent rally above $1400 confirmed the new Bullish Price Trend for Gold which indicates global investors are becoming more fearful of a crisis event or some other type of economic uncertainty.

We believe the next move high in Gold will push prices above the $1625 level, then above the $1745 level.  If that happens, we’ll know the fear of some type of crisis event is very real and that the Bullish major trend in Gold may continue for many years to come.

We just posted a much more detailed report on the new 7-year bull market starting for gold and mining stocks, which if you have not yet seen take a look at the charts.

As much as we like to think that Gold leads the market in terms of measuring fear and uncertainty, Corporate Bonds also share a role in the understanding and future expectations related to economic capacity.

If Corporate Bonds begin to sell-off before a major downside market trend begins, it represents a fear that future earnings and the ability to support/service corporate debt levels may be at risk.  The way I explain this to people is that it is like a ship “battening down the hatches” and securing the cargo before entering a major storm.

A Corporate Bond sell-off indicates that global investors believe the economy is grinding to a halt and that earnings going to decline – thus putting debt at risk of failure in the future and this is why investors sell their bonds, and they they typically move before the stock indexes do. Think of high yield bonds as a leading indicator by a few days.

HIGH YIELD CORPORATE BONDS – POTENTIAL MAJOR BREAKDOWN

This HYG chart highlights the support channel in Corporate Bonds that appears to be at risk of being broken.  If a breakdown in price happens, this downside rotation in HYG would be a very clear warning that the US and global stock markets may be entering a serious price correction period.

If Bonds were to move dramatically lower while Gold rallied, we can only interpret this as fear has really begun to hit the markets and traders are panicking.

TRANSPORTATION INDEX – ECONOMIC LEADING INDICATOR

Lastly, take a look at this Transportation Index chart and pay very close attention to the Head-n-Shoulders pattern setup on the right side of the chart.  You’ll see a similar Head-n-Shoulders pattern in May 2019 – just before a moderate downside price rotation.

As we move into the end of this year with liquidity diminishing and volatility starting to increase, the potential for a dramatic price sell-off becomes even greater.  The lack of real market depth and liquidity, as well as this “early warning” set up in the charts, suggests a market breakdown event may be happening right before our eyes. It also may not happen, which is fine also.

As technical traders we do not require price to move in any one direction, we simply follow price and bet on the direction it’s moving. But if we do get a breakdown here it could be really exciting especially if you have a trade or two on the right side of the market.

The cross-market Technical Analysis and the chart patterns are suggesting that a peak has set up and that future expectations are much weaker than they were 14 to 18+ months ago.

We recently published this article highlighting some of our proprietary Indicators and Indexes suggesting this recent rally in the US stock market may have been a “euphoric zombie-land rally” with no real support behind it.

Dec 2, 2019: IS THE CURRENT RALLY A TRUE VALUATION RALLY OR EUPHORIA?

If our analysis is correct, and we get the drop in stocks, it could be a very big downside move.

We believe these charts confirm that price and Technical Analysis are screaming an “Early Warning” signal that price weakness is setting up in the US and global markets.  We believe the continued lack of liquidity throughout the Christmas holiday season may prompt a very big breakdown price move at any time in the near future.  When any one of these charts begins a price move to confirm these predicted setups, it won’t take long for the bigger major trends to follow-through.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly. This week we entered two new trades and it’s not too late to get into them before they run higher!

We’ll keep you informed as this plays out with Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar Shipped To You!

Chris Vermeulen
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Welcome To The Zombie-Land Of Investing – Part 2

In Part I of this research post, we highlight how the ES and Gold reacted 24+ months prior to the 2007-08 market peak and subsequent collapse in 2008-09.  The point we were trying to push out to our followers was that the current US stock market indexes are acting in a very similar formation within a very mature uptrend cycle.

We ended Part I with this chart, below, comparing 2006-08 with 2018-19.  Our intent was to highlight the new price high similarities as well as the price rotation similarities between the two critical peaks in market price. We are terming the current market a “Zombie-land” because it appears global investors are somewhat brain-dead as to the total risks that are setting up in the global markets right now. But, wait before you continue reading make sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.

Forward guidance is waning. Earning expectations are decreasing.  Debt levels are skyrocketing all over the planet.  Global banks are continuing to move into more Quantitative Easing measures to attempt to spark growth.  The equity markets are 9+ years into a rally while the global central banks are 10+ years into some form of continued QE efforts.  Global economic data suggests a moderate downturn in economic activity and growth for many foreign nations.  We believe the next crisis will not originate in the US, but from outside the US.  We believe the risks associated with the massive debt levels in the foreign markets will be the reason for another price decline.  Quite possibly, a commodity price collapse (think OIL) will become the catalyst for this event.

IF OIL WERE TO FALL BELOW $45…

If Oil were to fall below $45 (eventually possibly flirting with the $30 price level) as our predictive modeling suggests, then we believe many foreign nations will suddenly become serious risk factor related to debt/credit and could potentially create a domino-process where the US/Global markets collapse on this new risk factor. Our last predictive model signal was for natural gas and we just close out the trade locking in 19% profits this week.

IS 2007 SETTING UP ALL OVER AGAIN?

But what if this is 2007 setting up all over again?  Take a look at the ES chart above – where a peak setup in May/June 2007, followed by a deep price correction.  Follow that price move even further to see how price rallied to a new all-time high throughout July, August and most of September before setting up in a deeper price rotation in late September and carrying forward into October.  Now, take a look at this current ES Weekly chart to see if there is any similarity between them.

GOLD UP 50% FROM ITS LOWS ALREADY

Gold has already rallied nearly 49% from the 2015 lows and the recent price rotation is somewhat similar to what happened to Gold in 2006-2007.  The extended base that set up between 2017 and 2018 could be interpreted as a similar type of base that set up in 2006-07.  The current rally is somewhat similar to what happened in late 2007 and early 2008 when the US stock market began to collapse volatility expanded in a strong uptrend which was followed by a moderate price retracement before Gold began a rally totaling more than 250% from the base/bottom.  Is this setup happening again right now?

WEEKLY NQ CHART SHOWS THE EXTENDED MELT-UP

This Weekly NQ chart shows the extended melt-up that is taking place after the October to December deep price rotation that took place in 2018.  We believe this deep price rotation is similar to the deep price rotation that happened between July and September 2007.  The subsequent “melt-up” process is a function of the “zombie-land” function of price and bias.  Investors chase after security and returns by pushing the price higher and higher when fundamentals and expectations don’t align with these expectations.  This same type of “zombie-land melt-up” happened in 2007 as well.

We understand the implications of this research post and want to warn all of our followers they need to be extremely cautious of the current market setup.  Even though the US stock market may continue an upside bias within a melt-up process, we believe there are very strong underlying risks in the markets that could prompt a very deep price correction.

THE US FED IS NOT LOWERING RATES BECAUSE …

The US Fed is not lowering rates because of market strength and super strong forward guidance.  They are lowering rates because they believe risks exist in the debt/credit market and are trying to stay ahead of a big problem – a potentially very big problem.  The overnight REPO market has been a topic for our researchers for the past 45+ days as this temporary institutional debt tool has exploded recently.  Now, the US Fed has actively decreased rates and has begun acquiring more debt on its balance sheet.. hmm.  That seems strangely similar to another credit/debt crisis event.

(source: https://thesoundingline.com/october-saw-the-largest-increase-in-feds-balance-sheet-since-the-financial-crisis/)

We know many of our followers may consider this just another warning from a bunch of doom-sayers again.  We’re not wishing for this outcome – trust us.  We simply look at the technical data, determine a probable outcome and present our findings to our followers to try to keep them informed.

Too many similarities are starting to align to make this just some strange coincidence.  Too many unknowns and uncertainties are aligning just 12 months before a US presidential election cycle.  It seems strangely familiar to us that these same types of price events are unfolding now.  If there is no correlation then we’ll likely be incorrect in our analysis.  But if we are right and there is a major price reversion event setting up, we think it is wise to alert as many of our friends as possible.

Keep reading our research because our proprietary tools have been nailing all of these price targets and move many months in advance.

I urge you visit my ETF Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Bar!

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Is Silver About To Become The Super-Hero Of Precious Metals?

If you’ve been following our research, you already know how accurately we’ve been nailing the precious metals price moves.  We’ve been calling Gold and Silver accurately since early 2018 and continue to focus a good portion of our efforts in studying these incredible setups.  Let’s have a little fun and start with two charts from near July 20, 2019, to help our followers understand what we’ve been expecting, but first, be sure to opt-in to our free market research newsletter

This first Monthly Silver chart highlights what we believed would be the approximate wave structure of the silver price advance going forward.  We did not attempt to accurately time these peaks of valleys, we simply used our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs to allow price to tell us where these peaks may form.  From those levels, we used our best “guess” to identify the trough bottoms.

You can see a “Started Here” line near the bottom of this chart.  This highlights where we created this chart and where the price was when we first posted it in our research (near $16.39).  As of today, the price of Silver is near $18.75 and climbing.  We’ve drawn in the missing data on this chart and highlighted the endpoint with a “NOW Here!” message.  Once the price of silver breaks above that BLUE Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc, it should rally up to $23 to $25 before finding new resistance.

SILVER WEEKLY CHART

This next Silver Weekly chart was shared with our members near July 25, 2019.  Pay very close attention to the arrows we drew on the chart at that time.  Guess what the price of Silver actually did after this chart was shared with our readers?  Yup, Silver shot up to $19.75 in early September, rotated back to the $17.50 level near the middle of September, and is starting a new rally towards the $23 to $25+ level right now.  Does that look familiar to you on this chart (below)?

If this seems amazing to you because we were able to see these moves so accurately into the future and had such a keen insight into the future metals price rotation – don’t be alarmed.  Our proprietary research tools are second to none.  Our team of researchers have more than 54 years of experience in the markets and have studied almost all types of price theory, technical analysis, and other types of market price, technical, and fundamental analysis techniques.  We put our skills to the test every day in order to help our clients find and execute the best trades. If you want to see more of our trading indicators and tools click here.

WHAT NEXT?

What next?  Well, the charts above actually show you what’s next.  The new charts, below, highlight new charts and new triggers that we believe will drive the current rally in Silver even higher.

Take notice of the HEAVY MAGENTA Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc.  The reason we highlight this MAGENTA level and the GREEN level in heavier line drawn is because these levels tend to become the major price inflection points within the arcs.  In other words, these levels are where the price will either stall/reverse or breakout of a trend and possibly explode into a bigger price trend.  The current Magenta line has just been crossed and the price is already exploding to the upside.  If this continues as we expect, this Weekly Custom Metals Index could rally another 25% higher – which would put Gold well above $1800 per ounce and Silver well above $24 per ounce.

SILVER DAILY CHART

This last Silver Daily chart is our Silver Cycle chart.  It shows that we expect Silver to reach levels above $23 to $25 before early November 2019.  That means Silver could rally 20~25% from current levels within the next 30+ days to reach our current upside targets.  Are you ready?

On Tuesday the stock market was hit with heavy selling volume sending money into the safe haven equities sector which was the XLU utilities ETF. We we in position for a wave of fear and locked in 2.72% on XLU with subscribers.

If you’ve missed any of our past analysis, please take a minute to visit our site to learn how our team of skilled researchers can help you find and execute better trades.  This move in the metals markets is going to be an incredible opportunity.  We’ve been alerting our members of this opportunity for months.  If you are not prepared for this move and/or want to learn how we can help you, please review our trade signal Wealth Building Newsletter today.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NOTICE : Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation, or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.  Visit our web site (www.thetechnicaltraders.com) to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

Rising US Dollar Mutes Metals Moves and Puts Pressures on Global Markets

The Rising US Dollar continues to shift the investing landscape as a stronger US Dollar mutes the price acceleration in precious metals and continue to put pricing pressures on the global economy.  The current levels of the US Dollar Index, above 99, clearly illustrates how the shifting landscape of the global economies has changed.  Prior to 2014/2015, when a minor currency/market crisis hit China and capital controls were installed in China to help reduce capital outflows, the US Dollar Index average price range was between 73 and 90.  Of course, the US Dollar Index weakened in 2008-09 and rotated within this range after 2010 – settling near 80 near the beginning of 2014. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter

So, this impressive rally in the US Dollar throughout the 2015-2016 US Presidential election cycle, as well as the continued rally since the lows near December 2018, is not something that we can simply chalk up to normal price rotation.  Something dramatic has shifted in the global markets since 2015/2016 and the new trend is US Dollar strength.

We believe the recent rallies in Gold and Silver related to this US Dollar strength are something every trader should consider relative to the real perspective of the global markets.  Gold and Silver have become extremely expensive in certain foreign markets because of currency price levels and the stronger US Dollar typically mutes price rallies in precious metals.  Therefore, the combination of a strong US Dollar and a rising metals price suggests “this time is different”.

We are starting to see news posts of how unique this setup really is in relation to traditional market dynamics.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-breaks-away-emerging-market-103653513.html

https://www.msn.com/en-in/money/personalfinance/why-is-gold-suddenly-so-expensive/ar-AAGqZKE?li=AAggbRN

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-28/gold-gains-set-off-silver-scramble-as-investors-play-catch-up

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/gold-crosses-record-rs-40000-mark-as-recession-fears-seep-in/articleshow/70892512.cms

The reality is that no matter what happens in the US Dollar or other foreign currencies, Gold and Silver are in very high demand as investors continue to pour assets into precious metals – which have quickly become one of the best-performing assets for 2019 and very likely for 2020 and beyond.

This Daily US Dollar Index chart highlights the strength of the US Dollar over the past 6+ months.  The ability of the US Dollar to continue to trade above 96~97 and push higher towards the 99 ~ 100 level shows the very high demand for US Dollars throughout the globe and the strength of the US Dollar in comparison to much weaker foreign currencies.  With the expectation of a weakening global economy, trade issues, negative interest rates, and bankrupt nations watching their futures spiral completely out of control, investors are naturally seeking out the strongest, safest assets – and are not seeking the highest potential returns.  This is a shift to safety.

We believe that gold is about to launch into a new upside leg once it breaches our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc resistance level near 1550.  The new upside target is $1625 or higher – where $1700+ could be the real upside objective for Gold.  If the US dollar rotated a bit lower after setting the new highs near 99, Gold could explode to the upside on moderate US Dollar weakness.

This Weekly chart of the Gold to Silver ratio highlights what we believe will be the next upside price leg for Gold over the next 6+ months.  We believe the true upside for Gold is 25 to 30% from current levels.  That puts our upside target near $2000 to $2100 near the end of 2019.  If that is the case, and silver continues to rally faster than Gold, then Silver could easily rally 30 to 50% from current levels.

If gold does what we believe is possible over the next 6+ months, then Silver will likely target the $26 price level fairly quickly, then push even higher and attempt to reach levels above $31 to $40 before the end of 2019.  We believe the strength of the US Dollar will continue and the rally in metals will continue as the shifting environment of the global markets continues to drive investors into safety.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

This could be the “once in a lifetime” trade fore those of you that followed our research.  We’ve been warning about this move for many years and have clearly illustrated the breakout opportunities in both Gold and Silver related to the US Dollar and foreign currencies over the past 12+ months.

You still have time to get into both the Gold and Silver trade if you believe our analysis is correct.  This move will likely continue for many months into the future – well into and past the 2020 US presidential election event.  The markets wait for no man or woman.  This shift in the global markets is different than 2008-09.  The reason it is different should be clearly evident in the strength of the US Dollar and the early shift in the precious metals markets that didn’t happen in 2008-09.  Something is spooking global investors into metals and we believe we know what it is – the mature credit cycle rooted in foreign market credit/debt exposure/liability.

It is our opinion that the falling foreign currencies and lower economic expectations are related to the fact that global foreign markets took advantage of the cheap US Dollar between 2010 and 2014, borrowed like fools and leveraged their economies to the max while never expecting the economic shift to happen quite like this.  Now, with credit and debt piled up in the expensive US Dollar, weak economic and trade data and outlooks and further concern originating from the “grey/shadow banking sector” – we believe the dance has already begun and investors know the tune.  Run into safety – run into Gold/Silver and the US Dollar.

We believe our super-cycle research and other proprietary modeling systems are suggesting that price weakness will dominate the markets for the next few months. Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis and recession.

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH SUBSCRIPTION!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Today’s Stock, Metal, and Energy Forecasts – Aug 16 2019

Good morning, Lots of great analysis including Bitcoin today.

Executive Summary:
– Stocks set to gap higher and at short-term resistance. We will see if sellers jump back into the market and drive prices lower to fill the gap. Its Friday so if we have a weak close in price near the lows then Monday could be another huge sell-off.

– Bonds are trading a major long term resistance trend channel on the monthly chart. I would expect bonds to stall and pullback over the next few months. The video shows this very clearly.

– Metals are giving mixed signals and gold hit our key price target and resistance area yesterday for a quick 22% profit.

– Oil and natural gas are still in downtrends but not giving much insight at this time.



GET MY TRADE ALERTS COMPLETE WITH ENTRY, TARGETS, AND STOPS SENT IN REAL-TIME!

JOIN ME AND TRADE WITH A PROVEN STRATEGY TODAY!

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

Double Top In Transportation and Metals Breakout Are Key Topping Signals

Our researchers identified this critical Double-Top pattern in the Transportation Index after a very strong price rally on Friday, July 12.  Double-Top patterns are very important in terms of Fibonacci price structure because they reflect a complete price rejection at a certain price level.  In this case, the TRAN Double Top level is $10,655 and our research team believes weakness at this level will push a downward price swing which should attempt to break through the $10,250 level and possibly attempt to move much lower.

The Transportation Index reflects future expectations for shipping of goods and raw materials across the US and, of course, is somewhat related to global economic activity.  If the Transportation Index falls in price, then future expectations are for weaker economic activity.  If it rises, then investors expect the economy to continue to strengthen.

This Double-Top formation in the TRAN could set up to become a very ominous warning sign for traders and investors.

Recent news about the contraction of China’s economy and the fact that Q2 earnings are about to hit the US markets and global markets could become a key factor in the future for volatility and price.  We believe the markets are already setting up a topping pattern after breaching key psychological levels last week.

MINERS ARE OUTPERFORMING US EQUITIES – TOP IS NEAR!

Last month I talked about how I have been waiting for gold miners to start outperforming the US stocks market. Once miners start outperforming in a big way (just like we saw in 2007), we know the stock market is topping out and something really bad is about to happen.

In the last couple of weeks, the gold miners index is up over 20% while the SP500 is up only 4%, this feels like the start-of-the-end if you know what I mean.

Gold miners and silver broke out today in a big way which could very well be the start of an epic rally for the precious metals sector as we heading into the end of the year.

Looks at the SP500 index in the chart below which is of the 2007 bull market top. Currently, the SP500 has formed a very similar pattern in 2019 and with the precious metals rocketing higher I think it almost lights out for the US equities.

See my updated chart showing where gold miners and the stock market is today within this cycle:  https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/next-bull-and-bear-markets-are-now-set-up/

TRANSPORTS, INDUSTRIALS, and SMALL-CAP STOCKS Confirm Market Is Topping

Based on the 2008 weekly chart below the US stock market could be literally 2-6 weeks away from collapsing. What makes this even scarier is that the market liquidity is the worst its been in my 23 years of trading. This means when the selling starts we will likely see some sort of flash crash as we saw in 2008, 2015, and 2018. Price drops so quickly that by the time you figure out what you want to do and get your money properly positioned most of the move is already finished. See 2008 and 2019 Comparison Charts here.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Pay attention to our research because we feel the market could breakdown on weakness later this week or early next week.  Our predictive modeling systems are suggesting an August 19th, 2019 breakdown date and we are only about 25 trading days away from that date.

In short, the bear market has been a long time coming, but finally, almost all the signs are showing that it’s about to start. As a technical analyst since 1997 having lost a fortune and making a fortune from bull and bear markets I have a good understanding of how to best attack the market during its various stages. Stay Tuned for My Cycle Analysis Article Next! 

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months – most traders/investors have simply not been looking for it.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar Shipped To You Free.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally also and some of these supercycles are going to last years. We go into great detail with this simple one of a kind and a real eye-opening financial market research booklet full of timely charts.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD or SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

So kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your
FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the
next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com