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Could Hong Kong Disrupt China & The Global Markets Further?

Reading the news this weekend and watching the chaos in Hong Kong, one has to wonder how this violence and disruption in commerce is really affecting the Asian and global markets.  Many different news sources are already reporting that Chinese economic data continues to show weakness over the past 4 to 5+ months.

Additionally, Hong Kong, being a strategic source of income and business for the western world, has been disrupted with riots, protests and not violence as a result of a political battle between Chinese rulers and local Hong Kong residents.

It seems obvious to anyone outside of this situation that neither side is about to stop their actions any time soon and that means we are going to experience even further disruptions to the global markets and local markets.  Right now, our greatest concern is that the disruption in economic activity in China/Asia will result in a “cold” in the US and other foreign markets.

Our August 19th call for a potential US market breakdown was stalled because of recent news that China and the US would begin talks again attempting to resolve the trade issues.  Yet, we know these talks may last many months with no real progress in terms of lifting tariffs or real concrete outcomes.  We don’t believe the US is going to remove tariffs or ease up on trade-related factors until we see real progress made by China.  This would suggest we are in for a long-haul in terms of real relief in the markets.

Our research team still stands behind our August 19th breakdown call.  Our super-cycle research suggests that the US and global markets are poised for a price breakdown and we believe the recent news events have stalled this price move.  Particularly, we point to the nearly -1100 point price drop on August 22 through 26, just days before the news that China was willing to engage in new talks with the US about trade.  This move would have likely continued to break lower, as we predicted, had the Chinese not announced their intent to try to relieve pressures on the economy and the global economy. Before we get into more details, be sure to opt-in to our Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter

We may have to give the Chinese credit for moving the markets by simply making an announcement that they were “willing” to engage in talks at a critical time when a price breakdown appeared to be executing.  That one statement changed the way the markets perceived the future.  Global traders rotated to a perspective of “hey – maybe the Chinese are finally going to negotiate a solution”.  We believe this is a stall tactic while the Chinese attempt to work another angle to protect their markets/assets.

Hang Seng Index Weekly Chart

The Hang Seng Index Weekly chart highlights the extreme weakness of price over the past 12+ week.  A dramatic downturn from $30,000 to $25,725 has transpired and support near a previous trend channel is now acting as a final floor for price.  Once this level is broken, we believe the Hang Seng Index could fall to $21,500 or much lower and set off a wave of corporate bankruptcies and bond defaults.

Custom Smart Cash Index Weekly Chart

Our Custom Smart Cash Index Weekly chart is set up in a similar format.  It shows that the peak in value near early 2018 was the true peak in economic activity and price valuation.  Everything beyond that peak has resulted in weaker and more contracted price moves.  This suggests global traders have already been pulling capital out of the markets in preparation for some type of price correction.  It certainly does not align with the most recent “new price highs” in 2019 for many of the US major Indexes.

YANG Fibonacci 100% Measured Move

We believe a very strong potential for a Fibonacci 100% measured move in YANG ETF exists on a price breakdown as a result of the chaos and turmoil that will likely continue in Hong Kong and China.  We’ve seen at least two of these 100% measured moves complete over the past 6 months and our Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting a target level above $75 which happens to align with another 100% Fibonacci measured move.

Current support near $55 would be an excellent area for a stop level and targets near $65 & $72 would be appropriate for skilled technical traders.  The risk at this time is related to the support level near $55 and the potential for some positive outcome in Hong Kong or other trade-related news.  Any further deterioration of the situation in Hong Kong could result in a very quick price drop in the Asian markets.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

As we’ve been suggesting for more than 12 months, 2019 and 2020 are going to be fantastic years for skilled technical traders.  The potential for big trades (20% or more), like this YANG trade, will continue to set up in different sectors and global markets.  All we need to do is stay on top of the opportunities to find ways to profit from these moves.

We would advise traders and investors to take advantage of these higher prices to pull profits out of open long positions and take some risk off the table at this juncture in price. We entered a new trade today and our portfolio is primed and ready for big moves going into next week.

We believe our super-cycle research and other proprietary modeling systems are suggesting that price weakness will dominate the markets for the next few months. Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis and recession.

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH SUBSCRIPTION!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Markets Ready to Pop, But Up or Down?


CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Be sure to opt-in to our free market forecast newsletter

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH SUBSCRIPTION!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

US Fed Set To Rattle Global Markets – Part I

With less than 24 hours to go before the US Fed rate decision announcement, all eyes are watching how the US stock market is reacting to the possibility of a rate cut (25 basis point) that has been telegraphed by the US fed many weeks in advance. Almost as if the US stock market is moving against all odds, the S&P and NASDAQ have pushed higher into new all-time high territory while the Dow Jones index currently trades just below recent highs.  What should traders expect with the Fed announcement and beyond?

Probability of Rate Cut Percent

First, we need to understand the global markets have already priced a 25 basis point rate decrease into the markets based on expectations.  The CME Fed expectations data suggests the market is 78.1% confident that a 25 basis point rate decrease will happen.

Source (CME)

This suggests that global traders are already prepared for this move and we may not see much volatility if the US Fed does not surprise anyone with their language/future expectations.

We believe the US Fed is taking this rate decrease to ease the supply of US Dollars throughout the world.  Over the past 18+ months, the strength of the US Dollar has prompted a shift away from weaker global economies and into the US equities market, US Treasuries and the US Dollar.  We believe this shift is reaching a critical moment in time where the fragility of the foreign markets has reached a tipping point.

Weekly US Dollar chart

You can see from this Weekly US Dollar chart that the rally from the bottom in early 2018 has been tremendous – +11.25% and climbing.  While this US Dollar rally has taken place, many foreign currencies have continued to weaken while the global economy has recently slowed to a crawl.  As long as the US Dollar stays within the magenta price channel moving forward, we expect this trend to continue.

The shift in how capital is being deployed and the stress that continues throughout the globe with regards to economic activity and output is related to something that we believe took place back in 2007 through 2016 – the global effort to support a very weak global economy.

We highlighted some of our thoughts in this recent research post about the black hold in global banking.

Overall, we believe the actions by the global central banks and the US Fed from 2007 till 2016 created a “setup” in the global markets that very few people foresaw or understood.  This shift happened at a pace and fever that few people could comprehend and came to a head in November 2016 when President Trump was elected.  We believe it happened somewhat like this…

2004~2006: Greenspan raises rates on an unprecedented scale (over 450%) pushing the US/global banking/credit sector into crisis in 2007-08

2008~2010: As the biggest global banking/credit crisis unfolds, the US Fed and global central banks do everything possible to save the world from decades of economic malaise and destruction.  US Fed lowers interest rates to near ZERO creating a run on US dollar debt/credit.

The Current Market Setup

2011~2015: As foreign market engages in debt/credit expansion, infrastructure projects and an “easy money” rally mode, something begins to change in 2014~2015.  China realizes the nation’s wealth is being exported to the US and other markets as well as a US stock market rotation that shocked the global investors.

2016~2017: The US Elections (2016) took the focus away from the global markets for a period of 15+ months and allowed the easy US Dollar trading activities to continue into hyperspace.  This is when many foreign nations/companies took huge risks leveraging debt and success into future debt/risks based on a belief that “this success will never end”.

Then This Happened…

January 2017: President Trump is sworn in and the US Fed begins raising rates aggressively.  The disruption that resulted from this 2017 combination event resulting in one of the largest “global unwinding” processes we’ve seen in quite a while and it has really only just begun.

The downward rotation in the US Dollar in early 2017 as a result of uncertainty in US policy and perceived strength in foreign markets as US interest rates were still relatively low – under 1.4% most of that time.  After US FFR rates crossed above the 1.75% level, the easy US Dollar carry trade became much more difficult to maintain and foreign investors had already setup trillions in debts expecting the US Fed to maintain easy money policies for decades.


Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EFFR

What is the US Fed expected to do at this time?  Either they lower the FFR so that the global markets can continue to run their credit/debt functions and attempt to deleverage the “setup” over the next 5+ years or the US Fed risks creating a run-away train type of scenario where foreign central banks lack the ammo to support their own economies and the US Fed risks creating hyper-inflation by not acting accordingly.  In short, the US Fed to the global bankers rescues again.

Well, here we go with the US Fed setting the policy and expectations for the future as this incredible 1800% FFR rate increase has pushed the global markets into potential turmoil.  We’ll complete our research in the second half of this research post in a few hours stay tuned!

CRUCIAL WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, And S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where each commodity and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

US Dollar Strength Will Drive Markets Higher

Almost counter to current institutional thinking, the strength in the US Dollar will likely continue to push the US stock market higher over the next few weeks/months and act as a supporting price bias in any event of a short term global/us stock market price collapse.  Many traders/investors fail to understand the capacity of the US Dollar to wreak havoc on foreign markets as well as to act as a support level for US equities and US investments.

The support level near $96 is currently acting as a solid price floor.  Our researchers believe an attempt to breach the $99 level will happen soon and this continued strength will put further pressures on foreign currencies, commodities, metals and trade issues.

These shifting dynamics of the currency markets are presenting very clear evidence that investors believe stronger, more mature economies are going to continue to perform over the future months that weaker, more at-risk economies.  The Japanese Yen, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and US Dollar are all performing quite well in this Year-To-Date comparison graph (below).  The New Zealand Dollar, Euro, British Pound, and Australian Dollar are all dramatically weaker.

Our research team put this comparison chart together to further illustrate the weakness of Asian currencies in relation to the relative strength of the US and major global currencies.  This chart attempt to compare currency strength by grouping relative currency pairs and comparing them as an Asian Currency Group vs a Global Major Currency Group.  As price advances, the Asian Currency Group is relatively stronger overall.  As price declines, the Asian Currency Group is weakening and the Global Major Currency Group is strengthening.

Currently, this chart shows the fragility of the Asian Currency Group.  Any break of the lower price channel level and we enter a new downside price trend that may attempt to establish a much lower price support channel for Asian Currencies, Asian Stock Markets, and the overall global markets.

Our researchers believe the continued strength of the US Dollar and the US stock market are pushing historical normal price ranges beyond expected boundaries.  As gold increases because of fear and greed, countries with larger gold reserves can attempt to offset certain losses from currency and economic weakness.  Yet companies and governments that attempted to leverage the “Dollar Carry Trade” environment from years ago may find themselves in very dangerous territory as Asian currencies continue to weaken.

A stronger US Dollar will attempt to mute the upside price activity of Gold and Silver while pushing these currencies into deeper and deeper valuation declines.  See our recent charts and short term dollar/gold forecast here. A continued shifting of capital away from “at-risk” economies/nations could push these currencies into a death spiral type of free-fall over time.

We believe the US Dollar will continue to move moderately higher over the next 4+ weeks and likely attempt to move towards the $99 price level.  This move will somewhat mute the advance of Gold and Silver, yet we believe the weakness that is likely to unfold in the foreign currency markets will prompt renewed fear and greed – pushing Gold prices much higher – even as the US Dollar continues to strengthen.

Once the XAUUSD level breaks the $1440 level – it should rally up to the $1615 to $1625 level very quickly.  This would likely be the breaking point for the Asian currencies as well.  A move like that would likely push these Asian currencies below historical price envelopes and create a panic-type of a capital shift away from risk.

Our research team believes this move will likely happen sometime between Mid-August and early September 2019.  This means we are only about 35 to 45 days away from an incredibly volatile price swing in the global markets.  This is something that most traders/investors have failed to even begin to comprehend or consider.

What would happen if the Asian capital markets and currencies collapsed on broad weakness and a major credit/debt crisis event?  An event where currencies devalue to a level that suggests forward operations are severely threatened, the rising price of Gold is not offsetting losses and commodity prices collapse pushing even further pressures on commodity/currency backed loans/debt?

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months – most traders/investors have simply not been looking for it.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar Shipped To You Free.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I’M GIVING THIS GOLD BAR AWAY WITH 2-YEAR MEMBERSHIPS
AND 1OZ SILVER ROUND TO 1 YEAR SUBSCRIBERS

So kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your
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bull market and financial crisis!

SUBSCRIBE -> STACK GOLD BAR -> GET WINNING TRADES

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Precious Metals Breakout Rally or Reversal Time?

We have a good pulse on the major markets and can profit during times when most others can’t which is why you should join my Wealth Trading Newsletter for index, metals, and energy trade alerts.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these super cycles are going to last years. These super cycles starting to take place will go into 2020 and beyond which we lay out in our new PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

I am going to give away and ship out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans listed below, and you will receive:

1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)

2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND 
GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!
Free Shipping!

Chris Vermeulen
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Fed May Trigger Wild Swing In Index and Metals

As our research team continues to pour over the charts and look for any signs of direction regarding tomorrow’s Fed news, we put together a couple the charts that may highlight some expectations and in at what the markets may do the rest of the week.

The expectations that the US Federal Reserve may maintain rates at current levels or potentially drop rates by a quarter percent leaves an open interpretation as to how the global markets will digest this news. Obviously, leaving rates unchanged would be the most benign action the Fed could take. Often though, the markets interpret this as a sign of weakness. Whereas a quarter percent decrease in the US fed rates would suggest that the Fed is preparing for future economic weakness in the US and potential global economy, yet investors may consider this as a very bullish reaction to the Fed.

Our belief is that the Fed will leave rates unchanged and possibly hint at adjusting rates lower later this year or early next year in preparation for the US presidential elections. The US economy is still moderately strong and the recent trade deal with Mexico as well as policy advancement in DC leads us to believe the Fed has no reason to adjust rates right now. Of course, a quarter percent decrease would allow the Fed to spur additional economic growth and potentially jump-start the waning housing market in the US.

This first chart of the YM, the Dow E-mini futures, highlights key price technical support and resistance that will likely come into play over the next 3 to 10 weeks. We ask you to pay special attention to the dual resistance levels above 26,500. These double resistance levels act as a double ceiling in regards to price advancement.  In other words, some type of strong price advance of 27,000 would have to take place in order for the price to move beyond these resistance areas.

Should the Fed surprised the market and the market interpreted this move as strongly bullish, there is a moderate chance that the YM could advance beyond 27,000 before the end of this week or early next week.  We believe the Fed news tomorrow will be interpreted as a protectionist stance and the market made move lower from current highs.  Any big rotation lower after the Fed announcement tomorrow could prompt a new downside trend to retest our pennant/flag formation base near 25,000. Either way, our automated technical analysis prediction software will keep or get on the right side of the market.

Additionally, after the Fed announcement tomorrow, it is very likely that the US dollar may, under some pricing pressure and that precious metals could rocket hire and continue their advance towards $1450.  Any market reaction to the downside in the US stock market and/or the US dollar would likely push precious metals well above recent highs.  It all depends on how the market reacts to the US Fed announcement tomorrow, June 19.

We believe we have positioned our gold trades appropriately for the Fed news tomorrow.  Either way, we believe gold, precious metals, and the miners will advance after the Fed news tomorrow.  A close above $1375 in gold will prompt a very quick rallied towards $1440.

We’ll continue to watch how the markets react to the Fed news tomorrow with the knowledge that precious metals and gold should advance either way as fear and greed drive the metals higher.  We’ll look for new trades near the end of next week after the Fed news shakes out the short term traders. There is nothing wrong with being on the right side of a profitable trade in precious metals and miners.

If you want to trade profitably with us and fellow traders from in 87 other countries be sure to join our Wealth Building Newsletters Today!

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

US Markets Rally Hard – Could Another Big Upside Leg Begin?

Closing out the first week in June 2019, the US stock market rallied hard from recent lows and prompted many traders/investors to rethink their future plans.  At the same time, Gold and Silver began a decent price rally of their own while Oil found support just above $50.  It certainly has been an interesting week for traders.  One that was full of incredible opportunity as many symbols rotated 6 to 12% or more over the past 10+ days.

The fact that Oil is finding support above $50 while Gold and Silver continue to rally suggests that fear may be entering the metals market while Oil may have found a temporary price bottom near $50 to $51.  Weakness in the US Dollar is also helping both Oil and Metals to push higher.  Our recent research suggests that the US Dollar will find support near $95 indicates the US Dollar may fall a bit further – pushing Oil and Metals a bit higher.

The strength in the US stock market near the end of the week suggests fear of any US collapse or future economic concerns appears to be abated.  It is very unlikely the US major indexes would rally as they have on any extreme fear of any major US calamity or economic concerns.  A slightly weakening US Dollar and moderately strong US economic data continues to suggest the US stock market may continue to be the repository of funds for foreign investors for many years to come – or until something dramatic changes in the US.

It is rather simple to understand the capital process that is at work in the global economy at the moment; until foreign market valuations and expectations appear to be opportunistic for future returns, the US Dollar and the US stock market are the most likely targets for foreign investment and safety.  Weakening currencies, weakening global economies and weakening commodity prices will push capital away from foreign markets and into safety.  Safety will be found in the US markets, precious metals and possibly Crypto currencies.  Anything that avoids deflationary risks and credit/debt risks.

This YM Weekly chart highlighting our Fibonacci price modeling system shows how dramatic the upside price reversal was by the end of last week.  The closing candles created an Engulfing Bullish candlestick pattern which is typically quite bullish.  The fact that price closed above the GREEN Fibonacci trigger level is further indication that a renewed price rally may begin soon.  Support near $24,000 appears to be quite strong and any further downside price risk must first break this level.  As long as support holds and price continues an upside bias, there is a very strong potential for a move to above $28,000 in the works.

This NQ chart highlights a similar price pattern and suggests the NQ needs to climb above $7600 before a true rally can begin.  Ultimately, the upside targets for this move are near $8500 or higher based on current price rotation.  Support near $6800 is critical – so price must stay above this level for any future rally to continue.

We authored a VIX/Volatility article just a few days ago that highlighted our believe that the VIX would trade lower, within a sideways price channel till near the end of July or August 2019 – then begin another VIX Spike move upward.  This coincides with the current research we are seeing where the US stock market will likely continue to push higher, very possibly setting new all-time highs again, before any real risk of any downside price collapse happens.

Follow our research and don’t miss these opportunities.  We’ve been warning our followers for months that 2019 and 2020 are going to be incredible years for skilled traders.  These recent 10 to 20% moves in Gold, Silver, Oil and many ETFs are just the beginning.  Our research team and trading team are ready to help you find and execute for better success.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com