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Stock Market Has Entered a 25-35year Crisis Cycle Re-evaluation Event

We can only imagine what many of you are thinking and feeling right now.  Shock?  Concern?  Despair?  Some of you have already emailed us asking about the US and Global markets to find out what our predictive modeling systems are suggesting.  Today, we’re going to show you what the longer-term Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting for the S&P and NASDAQ.

First, we want to ask you to slow down, take a few seconds to realize we will recover from this virus event and the smart thing to do is protect your family, protect your assets, and prepare for the future.  Market crashes happen only 2-3 times in a lifetime and they, not the end of the world or financial system.

This event is different than the 2000 or 2008 market crash events.  Each of those past events was somewhat localized events that disrupted a segment or portion of the global economy.  Yes, the 2008 event was bigger than the 2000 event, but the localization of the event still presented a similarity that provided a moderately quick recovery process.

Before we continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

Next, we want you to attempt to understand this virus event is a bit different than the most recent crash events.  A virus pandemic of this nature will likely result in a much broader economic contraction and various collateral damage processes as it transitions across the globe.  Currently, our research team is attempting to watch for the early signs of these collateral damage processes to determine if a broader global market collapse is going to take place.  At this time, we must all try to prepare for what is unknown and could happen in the future.

The longer-term generational cycle (the roughly 85-year Strauss-Howe Theory suggests societies navigate a long term cycle that repeats itself, roughly, every 85 years).  This societal evolutionary theory centers around the concept that people repeat many of the same failures learned by previous generations – roughly every 85 years.  What was learned in the 1920s~1940s will have been forgotten in the 1990s~2020 and many of the same mistakes will be made.

One of our researchers, Brad Matheny, authored a book in March 2019 that analyzed these super-cycles and accurately predicted this market crash could happen as early as August or September 2019.  Within this book, Mr. Matheny made great efforts to illustrate how important it is for everyone to become aware of these bigger market cycles and to prepare for what was likely to come near the end of 2019 and into early 2020.  You can get your own copy of this book here.

Additionally, smaller market cycles take place within the bigger super-cycles. This example of the 8.6-year business cycle highlights the repetitive nature of these broader market cycles.  Think about how 10 of these smaller business cycles equal the much larger 85-year generational cycle.  Now, think about how each stage of the roughly 20~21 year generational cycle has played out over the last 85 years.

This screen capture highlights the phases and structures of the broader Strauss-Howe generational theory.  Pay very close attention to how structured the process is and what to expect in the future.  Also, notice that we entered a CRISIS phase in 2005.

Past cycles have lasted more than the average 20~21 years.  Longer cycle lengths are not uncommon within the broader 85-year super-cycle when larger societal events take place.  Thus, this current CRISIS phase could last 25 to 35 years before a new HIGH phase sets up.

The reason we are bringing all of this together within this article is because we want to clearly stress forward and future expectations as well as to make our longer-term market concerns very clear to all of you.  If, as the generational cycles suggest, we have entered a CRISIS phase and are moving toward a HIGH phase, then we are in the midst of a phase that can be very destructive to institutions and society as a whole.

“According to the authors, the Fourth Turning is a Crisis. This is an era of destruction, often involving war or revolution, in which institutional life is destroyed and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s survival. After the crisis, civic authority revives, cultural expression redirects towards community purpose, and people begin to locate themselves as members of a larger group.”

These super-cycles and the broader “collateral damage” issue is what leads our researchers to believe the US and Global markets may continue to target much deeper price support levels before finding a bottom.  Even though the US and global central banks are doing everything possible to avoid a contagion economic collapse, we believe many people have “forgotten” about these broader market cycles and may be shocked to learn the COVID-19 virus event is happening in the midst of an 85-year generational Super-Cycle that predicts a true price bottom (new HIGH phase) may not set up until 2030~2035.

Let’s take a look at where our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting the markets may bottom.

DAILY S&P 500 FUTURES CHART

We’ll start by exploring this Daily ES chart which highlights two key Fibonacci downside price targets: 1683 and 1225.  Look for the GREY and RED lines near the bottom of this chart and look for the BLUE/RED and GREY SQUARES near the right edge of this chart.  These SQUARES are the DAILY Fibonacci downside price targets as calculated by our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system.

Also, pay attention to the CYAN price channel that we’ve drawn on this chart highlighting the current downside price channel that has setup.  It is our opinion that price will likely attempt to stay within this price channel as it moves deeper to target these support levels – eventually attempting to set up a bottom near either of these deeper Fibonacci support levels.

WEEKLY S&P 500 FUTURES CHART

This Weekly ES chart highlights the Weekly Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system’s results – which are almost exactly the same as the Daily targets.  This is very important if you understand that the Fibonacci price structure is supposed to be structured in a universal means throughout all price activity.  Thus, if the Daily and Monthly Fibonacci Modeling system is targeting the exact same levels – then this carries much greater importance to us.

The same downside targets in the ES are 1683 and 1225.  These represent a continued downside price move of -32.75% or -50.25% from current levels.  The YELLOW lines we’ve drawn on the chart represent what we believe the bottom may look like if the first level of support, 1683, acts at a bottom.  We do believe a bottom will set up in a FLAG formation that may take many months to complete before any real rally begins.

We issued an important investment trade alert this week that you should know about if you have not read this alert so be sure to do so now!

WEEKLY NASDAQ FUTURES CHART

This Weekly NQ chart points to an even deeper price bottom.  The downside Fibonacci targets are 3900 and 1865 (-48.59% and -75.15% below current price levels).  These deeper price targets suggest the NASDAQ market may become unusually volatile over the next 12 to 24+ months.  We believe this could become an unforeseen risk for many global investors that believe technology will recover faster than many other market sectors.  If our research is correct, the NASDAQ could collapse to far deeper levels than the S&P or the Dow Industrials.

How could the NASDAQ collapse like this?  Remember the “collateral damage” aspect and think about what it would take for these technology companies to loose their financial support?  Companies like Twitter, Uber and dozens of others operate with negative annual cash-flow – they depend on spending money they can’t earn to stay in business.  If this cash reserve vanishes – what happens?

The process of getting to these lows can come in many forms – yet the targets are still there for us to understand and prepare for.

On the weekend I wrote an interesting post sharing a trading experience I had during the 2000 bull market and how there are some similarities in price patterns and psychologically with traders as we have right now. It’s worth a read.

Watch for the global markets to continue to target recent lows.  On the NQ chart, above, we’ve drawn some CYAN lines near recent lows to illustrate these levels.  If the global markets do collapse to the Fibonacci levels we are predicting, then a much bigger contagion event is taking place along with the generational cycles and an unraveling of many institutional processes and functions.  Remember, we may continue within the CRISIS phase of the Super-Cycle for another 3 to 10+ years.  The COVID-19 virus event may be just the trigger of this collapse – but the writing has been on the wall for many decades.

Be very cautious buying into these dips at the moment.  We have been warning about this event for a while. Just last week we published a short guide and our basic trading and investing strategy on how to profit from bear market cycles – explained. Our researchers predicted August/September 2019 as the “critical date” and urged “move to cash” at that time to protect your assets from this event – few listened to us while the markets continued to push higher.

Luckily, on February 23rd we closed out all of our remaining positions for our active ETF trading account with our subscribers. Our trading accounts are sitting at a new high watermark and we avoided the market crash and took advantage of the 20% rally in bonds.

Maybe more people will listen to us after reading this article and prepare for what may come in the near future?  Maybe some of you will grasp the idea that these Super-Cycles are real and learn this may become the greatest opportunity of your life with our help.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for short-term swing traders.

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter. If you are a long-term investor with any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Weakness Appears To Be Setting For This Week’s Economic Data

As the world reacts to the global economic slowdown because of the COVID-19 virus event and the massive stimulus programs and central bank efforts to support the global economy, investors still expect weakness in the US and foreign markets.  We believe this expected weakness will not subside until news of a proper resolution to this virus event is rooted in the minds of investors and global markets.

Hong Kong and China are currently concerned about experiencing a “third wave” of the COVID-19 virus within their society.  As the economies open back up to somewhat normal, people are very concerned that a renewed wave of new infections will suddenly appear and potentially result in another shut-down event or infectious cycle?  We believe all nations are watching what is happening in Hong Kong and China as they attempt to reopen their economies.

The rest of the world is still battling the rising infection rates and dealing with the economic shutdowns that have brought the global economy to its knees.  Europe, Japan, Canada, and the US are all experiencing vast disruptions to their economies and commodity prices and demand expectations are collapsing as a result.

Nearly a week ago, we issued a research article that suggested our proprietary Fibonacci Price Modeling tool’s key resistance levels may become a very valid ceiling for any price recovery.  It appears this is happening in the markets as the NQ Daily chart, below, shows.

Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

DAILY NASDAQ (NQ) CHART

The NQ resistance level, near 7880, has acted as a soft ceiling in the NQ over the past 4+ trading days.  Today, the NQ briefly rallied above this level, then rotated downward below this level again to confirm this key resistance level.  We believe this critical Fibonacci resistance level may continue to act as a price ceiling over the next few trading days and push prices lower as economic news and expectations hit the news this week and next.

The next downside price target for the NQ is 6565 – new price lows.

If you have not seen this important technical analysis on the Nasdaq which I posted a couple of days ago, be sure to see these charts.

SP500 (ES) WEEKLY CHART

This ES Weekly chart illustrates another key resistance level near 2679.  Although the ES price has not rallied up to reach this critical Fibonacci resistance level, we still believe this level is acting as a price ceiling and that the ES will weaken as future expectations are confirmed by earnings data, economic data and other collateral damage to the global economy.

We are still very early in understanding the total scope of this virus event.  The US and other global central banks are attempting to front-run any weakened expectations as a result of this virus event.  We continue to believe the extended collateral damage to the consumer, business and other aspects of the economy are yet to come.  Most recently, consumer delinquencies have begun to skyrocket and the news is being printed about landlords and renters being unable to satisfy obligations on April 1st.

This is part of the reason why we believe further caution is warranted at this time in the markets. We issued an Important Trade and Investment Alert Yesterday.

Our research team believes a deeper price low will likely set up over the next 30+ days to establish a true price bottom.  As we’ve warned, we believe extended collateral damage to the US and global economy will soon become better understood and the extended shutdown of the US and other economies only manages to complicate any positive expectations for a bottom.

We believe a deeper price low will set up within the next 30+ days and we urge skilled traders to pay attention to the broader expectations of the markets.  Earnings data and other economic data will continue to stream into the news centers over the next 30+ days.  Don’t get too aggressive with trying to buy a bottom in the markets just yet.  Be patient and wait for the markets to show you when the bottom has really setup.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for short-term swing traders.

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter. If you are a long-term investor looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to look into my Long-Term Investing Signals.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

The Selloff Structure Explained – Fibonacci On Deck

Many traders become very emotional when the markets turn Bearish and fail to properly understand that price structure is still driving market price movement.  This morning, I highlighted this structure to my subscribers attempting to alert them to the possibility that the markets could recover moderately over the next 3 to 5+ days attempting to set up the next “waterfall” downside price event.

On January 29, 2020, I posted a research article detailing my belief that a “waterfall” type of event was setting up in the markets.  This article was nearly 30 days prior to the peak in the markets.  It explained how events take place and how markets tend to develop a moderate recovery phase between selloff price declines.

January 29, 2020: ARE WE SETTING UP FOR A WATERFALL SELLOFF?

Skilled traders should notice the size and levels of each selloff event in the chart (above) and pay very close attention to how price initially collapsed from the peak, then recovered nearly 50% in early and late November before finally setting up a deeper waterfall price collapse in early December.

Our research team believes the US stock markets may attempt something similar over the next 3 to 5+ days as the Covid-19 economic outcome continues to process through the global markets.

The US and other Central Banks have taken broad steps to attempt to overcome the negative economic outcomes related to the Covid-19 global shutdown.  Their biggest concern is that consumer activity could diminish and banking/credit firms could come under severe pressures because of a consumer collapse.

There are over 35 million US low-wage jobs that may become at-risk because of the Covid-19 virus event.  We believe the true economic contagion of the global virus event may now be known until well into April or May 2020.  Yet we believe these at-risk, low-wage jobs are prevalent throughout the globe and foreign nations, such as Asia and Europe, may experience a similar consumer economic contagion over the next 6+ months.

Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

We believe the data related to the Covid-19 economic crisis will not fully be known until well into April or May 2020.  Because of this, we believe the US stock markets may recover to levels near the 50% Fibonacci Retracement levels on these charts before attempting a series of further downside price moves.  Skilled traders should not become overly emotional right now and pay attention to the structure of the price action as well as other technical conditions in play at the moment.  Our objective is to execute trades with a highly targets success rate – not to trade on emotions.

SPY DAILY CHART

This SPY Daily chart shows the SPY would only need to rally 18.70 points to reach the 50% Fibonacci retracement level on this chart.  This could happen very quickly given how close the price actually is to this key Fibonacci level.  If that were to happen over the next 3 to 5+ trading days, the downward sloping price channels from our TTCharger modeling system would move lower to meet price near 278 – which would set up a new resistance zone and possibly a new wave of selling.

INDU DAILY CHART

This INDU Daily chart shows the Dow Jones would have to rally about 2025 points (to levels near 23,886) to reach the 50% Fibonacci Retracement target.  If this were to happen, the sloping price channels on this chart would likely move lower to meet price near this 50% target level – presenting a very clear resistance zone for a new wave of selling to begin.

Remember, it is not about emotions or attempting to try to force the markets to adopt your “belief”.  Skilled traders attempt to identify risks, opportunities and realistic technical setups that allow them to objectively determine where and when the markets are providing a real opportunity for success.

We may be just a few days away from the next major wave of selling, yet any trader who jumped into an emotional trader over the past 5+ days expecting the markets to continue to break down is likely under a fair amount of stress right now.  Learn to read the charts and the structure of price more effectively and you’ll find the answers are already on the charts in front of you.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for short-term swing traders.

If you are a more active trader and swing trader visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter. If you are a long-term investor looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to look into my Long-Term Investing Signals.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Important Trade and Investment Alert Was Issued

We just issued this trade alert to members of The Technical Investor newsletter which allows members to protect their wealth and assets while continuing to take advantage of opportunities generated by the US and global markets.  This is the first trade alert issued in 2020 of this kind.

If you are an active investor or traders, have a retirement account of any type or have assets in the stock market, then we urge you to take action and sign up to get this investment trade signal.

Our focus is to help traders and investors protect and grow their wealth. We use proprietary price modeling tools that can’t be found anywhere else.  Our combined 55+ years investing and active trading experience provides you with incredible insight and opportunity.

Passive investing is something for the “other guys”.  If you want to grow your wealth, protect your assets and learn to take advantage of the biggest price swings in the markets, then you need to follow our research and price modeling systems with us.

If you are concerned this may to be active for you, just know that we only buy the SP500 ETFs or move your money to cash where it is the most effective at times. If you can call your broker and tell them what to do with our alert instruction, or if you can place the trades yourself, then you can follow these investing signals.

Each year we have 2-3 trade opportunities to add new capital to the market, and some years we may have a new bull or bear market signal. Remember, bull market trades will last 5-12 years, bear market trades will last 1-3 years. No matter what, we can make money during both markets.

Since 2007, Passive Investing would have returned only 53.75% ROI – only 4.48% annually.  Active investing using our proprietary price modeling systems and deploying our proprietary position allocation modeling tools returned over 135% ROI – a 11.49% annually over the same time period.  That’s a whopping 230% more annual return than simply letting your investments ride out the market fluctuations.

Allow us to take a minute to explain just how powerful this advantage really is to you.

Imagine you started with a $100,000 account and compared the difference between a passive investment style and TheTechnicalInvestor.com trading style over a span of 10 to 15 years.  Most investors contribute to their retirement accounts over a 25+ year span of time – possibly longer.  The difference between the two styles of investing is dramatically different in terms of the final results:

At the 5 year mark, the difference between the two styles is almost $48,000 in extra profits (over +38% more growth for your assets).

At the 10 year mark, the difference between the two styles is almost $140,000 in extra profits (over +91% more growth for your assets).

At the 15 year mark, the difference between the two styles is almost $318,000 in extra profits (over +164% more growth for your assets).

After the 15 year example (assuming your passive investment style maintained a 4.48% annual ROI and our active investment style maintained a 11.49% annual ROI), the results are stunning.

With passive investing, you would have nearly DOUBLED your assets and wealth.

With TheTechnicalInvestor.com active investing, you would have more than TRIPLED your assets and wealth.

When you add our proprietary “re-entry” triggering system, the numbers explode to +40% annual ROI with 1x leverage; 3512% with 2x leverage; 9417% with 3x leverage.

The difference is that we help you navigate the bigger price swings/trends in the market and actively help you manage your allocation in the markets using our proprietary price and position sizing technology.

What’s the cost for TheTechnicalInvestor.com? $249 per year or $149 every 6 months.  Annually that breaks down to about $21 a month, which is $1 per trading day to know you are on the right side of the market.

Isn’t it time you took advantage of proprietary technology and services and started to create even more opportunities to grow your assets?  The market volatility recently has created an incredible opportunity for everyone that has a retirement/401k account.  Now is the time to focus on these big price swings because this is when opportunities are created to grow your wealth 3 to 5 times faster.

Visit www.TheTechnicalInvestor.com to learn more.  Sign up today to learn what our newest trade alert action is all about and how you can start profiting from these huge price swings in the future.  $21 a month is nothing when you really think about it.  Join our other subscribers in learning to protect and grow your wealth with our technology today.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategiest
Found of Technical Traders Ltd.

Three Charts Every Trader and Investor Must See

Understanding the stock market and its potential through the use of technical analysis and historical price events has been proven repeatedly to outperform all forms of fundamental trading styles. The following is a story that walks you through my experience, the shift in my mindset and how I came to the conclusion that the three charts I share in this article are critical to your understanding of to make money in today’s market!

When I first learned to trade, I got all caught up with researching companies and finding the ones with the best earnings and future growth. I did that for several years after studying and following many “professional traders” who said it was the best way to trade and invest long term. We lost our shirts during the 2000 bear market by continuing to trade on fundamentals as stocks fell in value week after week. Even the companies that showed quarterly earnings growth fell in value – none of it seemed to make any sense to me, and it was very frustrating.

Losing money when buying the best companies made no logical sense, making me step back from the markets and ask myself, ‘what am I doing wrong here‘. People today are asking themselves the same question given today’s dizzying markets:

· Telsa shares fell from $971 a share down to $347, whopping 63% drop, in only a few weeks and then rebounded again too xx

· Netflix is down 30%, even though people are stuck at home desperately trying to find things to watch)

· Amazon has fallen 26% in the past couple of weeks despite soaring demand for their delivery services

· GDXJ, the gold miners sector that is typically a safe haven during times of volatility, crashed 57% even though gold is usually a safe haven during times of volatility.

So, what was I doing wrong? I started calling and visiting traders who were making money during the bear market to see what they were doing, and 100% of them were doing the same thing – Trading with Technical Analysis. I wasn’t doing anything wrong, per se. I was simply using the wrong tools and analysis for success!

What is Technical Analysis? In short, it’s the study of price, time, and volatility of any asset using price charts and indicators. Traders use technical analysis to find cycles and patterns in the market and trade on the analysis of preferred indicators as opposed to the fundamentals of a company and/or the economy in general.

When you start studying technical traders, you will notice every trader has a particular time frame, a preferred set of indicators, and trading frequency that fits their unique personality and lifestyle. Their brains can see the charts in ways you and I may not see them to predict future price direction over the next few hours, days, weeks, or months ahead. I quickly learned there are infinite ways to trade using technical analysis.

I was very surprised by how much these pro traders allowed me. While standing over their shoulders, I was looking at their charts to try to divine their high-level strategies and learn how they think, analyze, and trade. It was amazing how different each of them traded the market. Some traded currencies; others traded stocks, indexes, options, futures, etc. Most were day traders, swing traders, or a mix of the two. But none of them gave me their secret sauce. That is why I turned 100% of my focus to technical analysis. I was excited at the prospect of being able to profit from both rising and falling prices and no concern for anything other than price action reduced my research time dramatically. It was and is the biggest AH-HA moment of my life and a turning point for my career as a trader.

The year was 2001, when I made the shift to technical analysis. I unsubscribed from everything fundamental based. I canceled my CNBC, stopped listing to news, and stopped reading other people’s reports altogether. My goal was to create my own technical trading strategy that best suited my personality and lifestyle. I would have to discover the securities I was most comfortable trading, the frequency I would trade, and the type and amount of risk I was prepared to take.

I traded options, covered-calls, currencies, stocks, ETFs, and futures. From day trading to position trading (holding several months), I tried it all, hoping something would click for me to pursue at a much deeper level. Day trading, momentum, and swing trading were my sweet spots. Having three of them was a bonus as I know some traders only ever master one in their lifetime if they are lucky. I grew a liking for trading the major indexes like the DJIA, S&P 500, and Nasdaq… great liquidity with big money always at play.

Along my journey, I realized that if I could predict the overall market trend direction for the day or week, then I could day-trade small-cap stocks in the same direction as the index, knowing 80+% of the stocks follow the general stock market trend. I could generate much larger gains in a very short period of time. As time went on, I became comfortable predicting, trading, and profiting from the indexes, and my new trading strategy began to emerge.

I was fortunate enough to start learning about the markets and trading in college with a $2,000 E-Trade account, and then retiring (kinda) in 2009 at the age of 28. I built my dream home on the water, bought cars and boats, and spent time traveling with my growing family. I love trading and sharing my analysis with others – it is better than I had ever imagined and why I continue to help thousands of traders around the world every day with these video courses Trading System Mastery, and Trading As Your Business so you learn and make money from your home forever.

I contribute 100% of my trading success and lifestyle to the fact that I embraced technical analysis, where my strategy involves nothing more than price movement, position-sizing, and trade risk management techniques. All these allow me to easily reduce exposure, drawdowns, and losses with proper position sizing and protective strategies. If you want quick and simple, read about my journey and core trading tools in my book Technical Trading Mastery – 7 Steps to Win with Logic. My strategy is represented by human psychology and historical trading, as expressed in the three charts below.

CHART 1 – HUMAN PSYCHOLOGY IS WHAT DRIVES PRICE ACTION

This chart is my favorite as it explains trader and investor psychology at various market stages. It also includes a simplified market cycle in the upper right corner, letting you know where the maximum financial risk is for investors and the highest opportunity for a trade.

CHART 2 – 2000 STOCK MARKET TOP & BEAR MARKET THAT FOLLOWED

The chart may look a little overwhelming, but look at each part and compare it to the market psychology chart above. What happened in 2000 is what I feel is happening this year with the stock market sell-off.

In 2000, all market participants learned of at the same time was that there were no earnings coming from their darling .com stocks. Knowing they were not going to make money for a long time, everyone started selling these terrible stocks, and the market collapsed 40% very quickly.

What is similar between 2000 and 2020? Simple really. COVID-19 virus has halted a huge portion of business activity, travel, purchases, sporting events, etc. Everyone knows earnings are going to be poor, and many companies are going to go bankrupt. It is blatantly clear to everyone this is bad and will be for at least 6-12 months in corporate earnings; therefore, everyone is in a rush to sell their stock shares and are in a panic to unload them before everyone does.

CHART 3 – THE 2020 STOCK MARKET TOP LOOKS TO BE UNFOLDING

As you can see, this chart below of this year’s market crash is VERY similar to that of 2000 thus far, it’s based on a similar mindset, which is the fear of losing money, which causes everyone to sell their positions.

I am hopeful that we get a 25-30% rally from these lows before the market starts to fall and continue the new bear market, which I believe we are entering. Only the price will confirm the direction and major trend to follow, and since we follow price action and do not pick tops or bottoms, all we have to do is watch, learn, and trade when price favors new low-risk, high reward trade setups.

It does not matter which way the market crashes from here, we will either profit from the next leg down, or will miss/avoid it depending on if we get a tradable setup. Either cause is a win, just one makes money, while the worst-case scenario just preserves capital in a cash position, you can’t complain either way if you ask me.

Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, is if you lost money during the recent market crash, then you likely have not mastered a technical trading strategy and do not have proper trade management rules in place. All traders must manage risk and trades to be sure you lock in profits and limit losses when prices start pullback or collapse. Without either of these, you will not be able to achieve long term success/gains, and that’s a fact.

While we can all make money during a bull market when stocks are rising, if you cannot retain or grow your account during market downturns, then you may as well be a passive buy and hold investors. You are better at riding the emotional investor rollercoaster without wasting your time and effort as a trader if you are not going to spend the time and money to learn to follow someone to become a successful trader. Without proven trading strategies or someone to follow, you are more likely to underperform a long-term passive investor.

I get dozens of emails from people every week trying to trade this wild stock market and use leveraged ETFs, which doing so during these unprecedented market conditions is absolute craziness if you ask me.

These people think that because there are big moves in the market, they should be trading. That big money should be made trading them, which drives me crazy because it could not be further from the truth unless you are a scalp or day trader. To me, in this market condition, it’s about preserving capital, not risking it, in my opinion.

A subscriber to my market video analysis and ETF trading newsletter said it perfectly:

“Always intrigues me how many amateur surfers get to the north shore beaches in Hawaii, take one look at monster waves and conclude it’s way too dangerous. Yet the amateur trader looks at treacherous markets like these and wants to dive right in!!” Richard P.

I have to toot my own horn here a little because subscribers and I had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark for our accounts. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way.

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts, visit my ETF swing trading visit my website at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com.

Chris Vermeulen
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

These Index Charts Will Calm You Down

I put together this video that will calm you down, because knowing where are within the stock market cycles, and the economy makes all the difference.

This is the worst time to be starting a business that’s for sure. I have talked about this is past videos and events I attended that bear markets are fantastic opportunities if you can retain your capital until late in the bear market cycle. If you can do this, you will find countless opportunities to invest money. From buying businesses, franchises, real estate, equipment, and stocks at a considerable discount that would make today’s prices look ridiculous (which they are).

Take a quick watch of this video because it shows you what I expect to happen over the next 3-6 months, and beyond and it goes against what everyone else is thinking.

Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss my next special update!

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for short-term swing traders.

Visit my ETF Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Virus Curve, Market Crash, and Mortgage Massacre

In this last segment of our multi-part research article, we want to highlight our expectations of the Covid-19 virus event and how the next 6+ months of global market activity may play out.  We’ve covered some of the data points we believe are important and we’ve touched on the collateral damage that may be unknown at this time.  Today, we’ll try to put the bigger picture together for investors to help you understand what we believe may be the 12+ month outcome.

As the global central banks and US Fed attempt to come to the rescue, the reality is that monetary policy works better when consumers are able to actually go out and engage in spending and economic activity.  If the Covid-19 virus event contracts global consumer activity, as it has recently, for an extended period of time (4 to 6+ months), then we have a real issue with how QE efforts and consumer activity translate into any real recovery attempt.

The real risks to the global markets is an extended risk that the Covid-19 virus creates a contracting economic environment for many months/quarters and potentially fosters an environment where extensive collateral damage to corporations, consumer activity, credit/debt markets, and other massive financial risks boil over.

Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

News is already starting to hit that QE is not helping the deteriorating situation in the Mortgage banking business.  Remember, this is the same segment of the financial industry that started the 2007-08 credit crisis event.  News that mortgage lenders and bankers are already starting to experience margin-calls and have attempted to contract their exposure to the risks in the markets (a bit late) are concerning.  This is a pretty big collateral damage risk for the global markets.

(Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mortgage-massacre-continues-mounting-margin-calls-spark-crisis-wall-street )

Additionally, as we expected, applications for new mortgages have collapsed to their lowest level since 2009.  Until consumers feel confident in their ability to get out, engage in real economic growth and take on home loans they know are relatively secure in their ability to repay – there is going to be a continued market contraction.  The next phase of this contraction is a price reduction, forced selling/foreclosures and a glut of assets waiting for a bottom.

“Home-purchase applications dropped by 14.6% while

refinancing applications plummeted 33.8%… “

(Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/mortgage-apps-crash-most-2009 )

I think the most important aspect of this global virus event is to remember that we will survive it (in some form) and we will live to rebuild after this event completes.  Yet, the reality is that we were not prepared for this event to happen and we don’t know the total scope of this Covid-19 virus event.  We simply don’t know how long it will take to remove the threat of the virus and for societies to reengage in normal economic activity – and that is the key to starting a real recovery.

(Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/no-country-has-exit-strategy-expert-warns-lockdowns-could-last-months-years )

Hong Kong has recently reported a “third wave” of Covid-19 infections.  I believe we should attempt to learn from places like Hong Kong, where news is moderately accurate and reported via social media and other resources.  If we want to learn what to expect in the US and how the process of containing this virus may play out, we need to start learning from other nations that are ahead of us in the curve.

It appears that any attempt to resume somewhat normal economic activities while the virus is still active spouts a new wave of infections.  This would suggest that the only way to attempt to reengage in any somewhat normal economic activity would be when a vaccine or true medical cure is in place to allow nations to attempt to eradicate the virus as these waves continue. (Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/third-wave-hong-kong-thought-it-had-a-handle-on-coronavirus-it-doesnt-2020-03-23 )

The price collapse in 2008-09 represented a -56% decline from top to bottom.  Currently, the S&P has fallen by just over 35%.  We don’t believe the bottom in the US stock market has setup just yet and we do believe there is a greater downside price risk ahead.  We don’t believe the housing market will be able to sustain any of the current price levels for much longer.  We believe the collateral damage of this event is just starting to be known and we believe a greater economic contraction is unfolding not only in the US but throughout the globe.

Skilled traders need to understand the total scope of this event.  We’ve attempted to highlight this risk in this article and in our “Crunching Numbers” research article (PART III).  An economic contraction, like the Covid-19 virus event, could contract global GDP by as much as 8 to 15% over an extended 16 to 36+ month span of time.  Are we concerned about the Real Estate market?  You Bet!  Are we concerned about global markets?  You Bet!  Are we prepared for this as traders? You Bet!  Are the central banks global nations prepared for this? We certainly hope so.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for short-term swing traders.

Visit my ETF Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Market Wrap Technical Take with Moe & Chris – Audio

Yesterday I had a great call with Moe Ansari, who has over 40 years of experience trading and investing. We talked about the market and some technical analysis as to what we think about everything happening right now.

Moe and I share a comment thought which is:

IT IS NOT WHAT YOU MAKE, IT IS
WHAT YOU KEEP THAT COUNTS.

I have been pounding on the table for weeks since we closed out last trade in TLT for 20.07% profit on Feb 23rd, that cash is king, and it is more important to avoid uncertainty than it is to try and trade the random and volatile price action.

Subscribers of my ETF trading newsletter love the fact that our trading portfolio is at a NEW HIGH WATERMARK, and we completely sidestepped this market correction, which turned into a full out market crash.

I won’t lie. I knew a market correction was starting, which is why I adjusted our trailing stops to protect us if things began to turn south. But I did not expect a market collapse that would start a new bear market.

The good news is that because I strictly use technical analysis, position-sizing, and management of positions for profit-taking and trailing stops. We will never be caught on the wrong side of the market for more than a few days. So when a market collapse happens like what we are experiencing now, it does not affect our financial outlook.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for short-term swing traders.

Visit my ETF Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Chris Featured on TD Ameritrade TV – Safe Plays During Slowdowns

Recently I have been asked to talk on multiple TV shows, radio stations, and podcasts during this wild market correction in almost every asset class.

The reason being I think is from some recent articles I posted publically clearly shows how a technical trader can successfully time, trade, and protect capital no matter what happens in the equities, bonds, and commodities market.

In short, I had subscribers move their money into the leading assets in January which were GDXJ (gold miners) and TLT (bonds). I also talked about consumer staples, and utilities as safe havens.

These assets were outperforming the stock market and that is where you want your money to be positioned as you will earn more over time owning leaders that increase in value more than that of the average stock market index.

Spotting the leaders is not really that difficult, but what is tough is knowing what position size you should have in any given trade, where to place profit targets, and where to place stop losses/trailing stops.

As you have likely noticed gold miners GDXJ fell a whopping 57% from the highs if you didn’t have proven strategy then your likely still holding them and have endured one hell of a rollercoaster ride. Subscribers and I exited GDXJ at the high tick the day price reversed for a 9.5% profit because we had a trading strategy and executed our trading plan.

GDXJ had reached our extreme price target using technical analysis which was a clear resistance level for sellers to unload shares and that’s what did, sold our shares as well.

TLT actually had the biggest and best-looking chart out of all other asset classes which is why we focused mainly on that position with our capital. See our trade below as it paints a clear picture.

TLT/Bonds historically show that when they rally 20% in price quickly the instantly reverse and crash. Well, our Fibonacci upside target worked out to be a 20% gain and if that level was reached we would close out any remaining position we had, which we did. During the rally, we scaled out of the position at 5%, 7.5%, 10% gain, and then the last portion once 20% was reached. The next day, TLT reversed and fall 15% over the next two weeks.

TD AMERITRADE TV CLIP

CLICK HERE TO WATCH VIDEO

When To Get Aggressive With Your Portfolio And Gold Vs Gold Stocks

Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders joins Cory Fleck of Korelin Economics Report to discuss general strategies and market outlook for US stocks and precious metals. He argues that now is still the time to have a cash-heavy strategy.

As for Gold and gold stocks they are still in very different patterns. Gold continues to show strength and the stocks are doing well but still have yet to break out to get him excited.

Mr. Vermeulen has been a technical analysis and trader since 1997 and has been through a few bull/bear market cycles. He has a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for short-term swing traders.

Visit his ETF Wealth Building Newsletter to follow him to success by riding his coattails while navigating these financial markets.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com