Posts

Bitcoin Price Collapse Continue For Many Months

The recent price collapse in Bitcoin may be the start of a much bigger price trend in the Cryptos.  The support level near $9000 has been breached and the current resistance arc, see the MAGENTA Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs on these charts, are clearly acting as a major contracting price resistance level.  Our research suggests price will find support near $7900, then $5571, then possibly just above $2000. But first, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter

The Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs are a proprietary modeling tool we use to measure and track how price may react based on previous price swings.  They are the visual deployment of two unique theories;  Fibonacci price theory and Tesla’s Mechanical Resonance theory.  The basis behind our thinking when we created this proprietary tool was that Fibonacci price theory suggests that all price movement is related and structured to previous price movements and that Tesla’s theory that everything we touch, see and know to exist is the result of ENERGY suggested to us that ENERGY may be one of the most important components in understanding price movement.

Energy is typically measured in Volts and Amps.  We adopted a different approach to this thinking, we used Sound structures and energy as the basis for our proprietary analysis: attack, intensity, decay, sustainability, amplitude, and frequency, as well as pressure and velocity.

“In Physics, sound energy is a form of energy.  Sound is a mechanical wave and as such consists physically in oscillatory elastic compression and in oscillatory displacement of fluid.  Therefore, the medium acts as a storage for both potential and kinetic energy.”

source : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sound_energy

Imagine trying to unlock the concept that Time and Price are a fluid environment where energy (price movement over time) creates a lasting and dynamic method of storing energy, displacing energy and developing kinetic energy that could interact and displace future price trends, rotations, swings?

How in the world would you attempt to identify or study these types of price energy waves to attempt to develop a system of successfully using these tools for trading and analysis?

You do exactly what we did – you try to apply your best researchers to the task and attempt to validate your research across various platforms, symbols, and sets of data.

With more than 54 years of experience in the markets and have studied almost all types of price theory, technical analysis, and other types of market price, technical, and fundamental analysis techniques.  We put our skills to the test every day in order to find and execute the best trades. If you want to see more of our trading indicators and tools click here.

BITCOIN FIBONACCI PRICE AMPLITUDE ARCS

These Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs, as we call them, are what we believe to be the hidden price energy wave that exists behind the linear constructs of the charts we are used to seeing.  They work by creating breakouts and channels that price must react to.  In this case, the Magenta price arc is acting as a contracting ceiling for the price (resistance) and price should continue to stay below the MAGENTA price arc until it reaches a point where enough energy exists to break through that arc.

WEEKLY BITCOIN CHART

This Weekly Bitcoin chart provides a better example of how our proprietary Fibonacci Price Amplitude arcs are deployed.  In this example, we can clearly see the bottom that formed in late 2018 and the peak that formed in late June 2019.  We can see two HEAVY Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs: one MAGENTA and the other one GREEN.  These are what we believe are the major amplitude arc levels.  The others are minor levels.

Each peak or valley on this chart sets up a new Price Amplitude energy pattern.  Some are more relevant than others in term of how price will react to them.  All of them are important to understand and to help us relate to how price may move in the future, yet we try to stick with the most important Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs when we share charts with our readers.  You’ve probably seen some of our other research charts with lots of arcs and lines drawn all over them – those are part of our research team’s work to dig into the hidden energy layer that exists behind price activity on every chart.

This Weekly Bitcoin chart suggests that price will continue to attempt to test various support levels while staying within the Magenta price arc.  We believe the $5571 level is the likely target at this time.

Don’t chase this move lower in Cryptos.  Wait for the bottom to setup and form before looking for the next move higher.  If price breaks below $5571, then we could see a target level near $2100 very quickly.  If price is unable to generate enough energy to break the Magenta price arc, time will eventually push price into the next arc series where a broader price range/rotation may be in the future.

5 OTHER CRUCIAL WARNING SIGNS ABOUT THE US MARKETS TOPPING AND THE GOLD AND SILVER BULL MARKET

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where stocks are headed along with precious metals for the next 8-24 months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

News and Emotions Aside, This Is Where Stocks and Metals Are Headed

If you follow the headline news, read multiple articles a day from different sources on the markets, and are human then you are likely underperforming the market in which you are trying to beat like gold, miners, the SP500 index or whatever it may be.

The information I talk about below and in this video should be a real eye opener for those have not seen technical analysis in action, just how clear the we can see what the stock market, bonds, metals, oil and more will do next. Even at a time like this when the markets are gyrating all over hte place from week to week, we can still gauge our risk and be a winner.

No matter where I go when someone asks me what I do for a living, the person asking has the same “Deer in the headlights” look on their face. I am a technical analyst and trade stocks and commodities for a living with zero external input other than what the price chart of an asset class has painted on the chart.

Most people have never heard of technical analysis for trading or investing, and those that have heard about it think its some type of VooDoo and holds little value. The reality is technical analysis outperforms most of those who trade based on news, earnings, economic data etc…

Why? because all those things are very random data points and unpredictable. If they are important big/smart/insider money has moved into position to take advantage of this before the information becomes public. This is why good news for stocks gets sold into once released for example.

I started trading stocks when I was 16 years old in high school and fall in love with reading charts. Now, 23 years later I have no doubt in my mind technical analysis and trading systems are the absolute best way to trade and invest for growth. Dont get me wrong I spent years digging through company perspectives, reports, press releases and a few years of doing that was almost enough to make me hate trading as it become more like a job and less profitable.

If you just want to cut to the point and know what and when to buy, take profits, and exit a position then technical analysis is what you seek!

HOW TO ANALYZE KEY MARKETS EVERY MORNING

The analysis presented below covers the SP500, Bond, Utilities, Gold, Silver, Oil, and even Bitcoin. This is the analysis I share very day before the opening bell to keep you up to date with current market trends, potentially explosive moves, and set you expectations so you do not become overly emotional and exit a trade early from fear, or excitement.


THIS HAPPENED LATER THAT SAME DAY – WASHOUT LOW

In the video above I talked about how the SP500 was setting critical support that day, and I did this before the opening bell at 9 am. We just take a look at what the market likes to do intraday with the price to shake traders out of their position and trigger their stop-loss orders just before a market reversal.

I live and die by these three rules for my technical trading

1. IDENTIFY TREND DIRECTION

Trends are more likely to continue then they are to reverse. Draw trend lines on the long-term and short-term charts.

2. FIND SUPPORT & RESISTANCE

Identify critical areas of support and resistance on the price charts. Calculate Fibonacci percent retracements, advancement levels, and other measured moves.

3. TIME CYCLES & SENTIMENT

Use cycle analysis, investor sentiment, volatility, panic selling, greed buying, and price patterns to form accurate price forecasts to use for trading. Opt-in to our free market trend forecast newsletter

REACHING THE CHARTS IS ONLY HALF THE EQUATION

Focus Just On The Charts and Ignore All Other Data/Opinions or else you’ll end up with analysis paralysis.

Traders contact me every day confused about which direction to trade. I can tell a couple things very quickly about their issues depending on how they state their problem or question, and its generally a simple fix, or answer that will get them back on track but analysis paralysis is one of the most common issues.

The second half the equation for trading success is a topic most traders turn a blind eye to because it seems confusing, and, or boring. Risk management is the key to long term success and a portfolio value that always goes up and to the right. Believe it or not, its super simple, takes seconds to figure out what position size you should take in any given stock or ETF trade.

In a future post, I am going to talk about how you can take half the financial risk while making 8x more profits. Stay Tuned!

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Democrats Launch Formal Impeachment – What Should Traders Expect?

News of the formal impeachment proceedings came just after the markets closed on September 24, 2019.  The markets had already broken a bit lower most of the day after Consumer Confidence and Jobs expectations were weaker than expected.  We had just authored a public research post about our belief that the Technology sector was about to breakdown and begin to move lower.  Additionally, we pushed out a post about how Silver would become the “Super-Hero” of 2019/2020 based on our expectations of further gains.

We believe the new impeachment proceedings will result in a market that is very similar to what happened when the US invaded Kuwait in August 1990.  At that time, the US launched a very fast invasion of Kuwait that prompted a massive news event and resulted in hours of new invasion video that drew millions of Americans into watching the news every night.  This invasion was almost like an extended Super Bowl or an extended World Series event where millions of people are actively engaged in this event, stop engaging in the local economy and focus their attentions on the news cycle, content and political circus originating in DC. But first, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR TRADERS

For traders, it means we have to be prepared for just about anything.  It means the news events will become even bigger drivers of market rotation and trends as well as the fact that we must prepare for weaker economic data over the next 13+ months.  The impeachment process is going to be a dramatic distraction for many people and business ventures.  Many will simply fall into a “protectionist” mode where new expenses, expansion and other facets of life/business will be put on hold until after November 2020 (or later).

Our research team believes the initiation of these impeachment proceedings will act as a process of muting or weakening the US economy over time.  Starting out slowly at first, then gaining strength as the news cycle picks up more and more “dirt” while both sides posture and position for advantage into the November 2020 election cycle.  The end result will be a decidedly weaker US economy as a result of this new impeachment process and we believe the final outcome could leave some career politicians bloodied and battle-weary.

NASDAQ DAILY CHART

This NASDAQ Daily chart highlights what we believe will become the future breakdown of the technology heavy NASDAQ as investors become sidetracked on the impeachment investigation and the political side-show that is going on in DC.  This type of chaos in DC tends to take the focus away from finance and business as the political theater, the pending US presidential election and the never-ending news cycle fill the void.  Weakness and volatility could become a standard operating environment for skilled technical traders over the next 12+ months.

S&P 500 DAILY CHART

This S&P 500 Daily chart highlights the same setup and weakness that we expect to settle into the US markets over the next 12+ months.  The previous Double-top formation in the SPX near 3026 could become a major point of resistance should price breakdown and continue to move lower on a price revaluation/reversion move.  We believe the impeachment investigation announced today will cause enough concern and uncertainty in the global markets to derail any real efforts by the central banks to support the global economy.  At this point, consider buying consumer essentials, utilities, precious metals and dividend earning stocks for the longer term.

MONTHLY S&P 500 CHART

This Monthly S&P 500 chart highlights the volatility that has setup in the US markets since early 2018.  It also highlights the previous two US presidential election periods on the chart in BLUE.  The reality is that every US presidential election cycle is associated with price rotation in the US stock markets.  This happens because the level of uncertainty and confusion about forward economic policy is heightened.  Traders and investors don’t know what to expect as the political battle wages, so price rotation and volatility is normally heightened as the news cycle drives shorter term price trend.  The same thing is going to happen over the next 12+ months – but we have the added FUEL of the impeachment investigation.  Get ready for some really big price swings in the global markets.

MONTHLY GOLD CHART

Lastly, Gold – that shiny safe metal that almost everyone had forgot about 3+ years ago is now poised for a move to just below $2000 over the next 8+ months.  Our initial target is just below $1800 (actually $1795) for Gold on this next upside price move.  You can see our proprietary Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs on this chart and where we’ve drawn the “Current Resistance” line on this chart.  Once gold rallies past this level, $1625, then we believe the next phase of the upside price rally towards $1800 will be very quick – possibly even settling well above $1800.

Many of our readers remember the Kuwait invasion and what happened in the US at that time.  Certainly we can’t be the only ones over 50 that remember what happened in 1990.  The reality is that society reacts to these types of outside events by either becoming motivated to engage in some way or becomes more protectionist by staying home, watching the news and not taking risks.  We believe the later will be the case over the next 12+ months as more clarity is determined by the ongoing impeachment and election processes.

Our advice would be to protect everything you can right now.  Don’t wait for a breakdown in prices to learn that you should have protected your assets.  The new cycle will be driving prices until things settle after November 2020.  Thus, this is like riding out a very violent storm with crazy winds and waves.  You don’t know what to expect and where it will hit next.  What we do know is there will be some really big waves, price swings and opportunities for skilled technical traders.

With more than 54 years of experience in the markets and have studied almost all types of price theory, technical analysis, and other types of market price, technical, and fundamental analysis techniques.  We put our skills to the test every day in order to help our clients find and execute the best trades. If you want to see more of our trading indicators and tools click here.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation, or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.  Visit our web site (www.thetechnicaltraders.com) to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

Is Silver About To Become The Super-Hero Of Precious Metals?

If you’ve been following our research, you already know how accurately we’ve been nailing the precious metals price moves.  We’ve been calling Gold and Silver accurately since early 2018 and continue to focus a good portion of our efforts in studying these incredible setups.  Let’s have a little fun and start with two charts from near July 20, 2019, to help our followers understand what we’ve been expecting, but first, be sure to opt-in to our free market research newsletter

This first Monthly Silver chart highlights what we believed would be the approximate wave structure of the silver price advance going forward.  We did not attempt to accurately time these peaks of valleys, we simply used our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs to allow price to tell us where these peaks may form.  From those levels, we used our best “guess” to identify the trough bottoms.

You can see a “Started Here” line near the bottom of this chart.  This highlights where we created this chart and where the price was when we first posted it in our research (near $16.39).  As of today, the price of Silver is near $18.75 and climbing.  We’ve drawn in the missing data on this chart and highlighted the endpoint with a “NOW Here!” message.  Once the price of silver breaks above that BLUE Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc, it should rally up to $23 to $25 before finding new resistance.

SILVER WEEKLY CHART

This next Silver Weekly chart was shared with our members near July 25, 2019.  Pay very close attention to the arrows we drew on the chart at that time.  Guess what the price of Silver actually did after this chart was shared with our readers?  Yup, Silver shot up to $19.75 in early September, rotated back to the $17.50 level near the middle of September, and is starting a new rally towards the $23 to $25+ level right now.  Does that look familiar to you on this chart (below)?

If this seems amazing to you because we were able to see these moves so accurately into the future and had such a keen insight into the future metals price rotation – don’t be alarmed.  Our proprietary research tools are second to none.  Our team of researchers have more than 54 years of experience in the markets and have studied almost all types of price theory, technical analysis, and other types of market price, technical, and fundamental analysis techniques.  We put our skills to the test every day in order to help our clients find and execute the best trades. If you want to see more of our trading indicators and tools click here.

WHAT NEXT?

What next?  Well, the charts above actually show you what’s next.  The new charts, below, highlight new charts and new triggers that we believe will drive the current rally in Silver even higher.

Take notice of the HEAVY MAGENTA Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc.  The reason we highlight this MAGENTA level and the GREEN level in heavier line drawn is because these levels tend to become the major price inflection points within the arcs.  In other words, these levels are where the price will either stall/reverse or breakout of a trend and possibly explode into a bigger price trend.  The current Magenta line has just been crossed and the price is already exploding to the upside.  If this continues as we expect, this Weekly Custom Metals Index could rally another 25% higher – which would put Gold well above $1800 per ounce and Silver well above $24 per ounce.

SILVER DAILY CHART

This last Silver Daily chart is our Silver Cycle chart.  It shows that we expect Silver to reach levels above $23 to $25 before early November 2019.  That means Silver could rally 20~25% from current levels within the next 30+ days to reach our current upside targets.  Are you ready?

On Tuesday the stock market was hit with heavy selling volume sending money into the safe haven equities sector which was the XLU utilities ETF. We we in position for a wave of fear and locked in 2.72% on XLU with subscribers.

If you’ve missed any of our past analysis, please take a minute to visit our site to learn how our team of skilled researchers can help you find and execute better trades.  This move in the metals markets is going to be an incredible opportunity.  We’ve been alerting our members of this opportunity for months.  If you are not prepared for this move and/or want to learn how we can help you, please review our trade signal Wealth Building Newsletter today.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NOTICE : Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation, or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.  Visit our web site (www.thetechnicaltraders.com) to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

Is The Technology Sector about to break lower?

We believe the current capital shift in the US stock market may be settling into the Technology sector as investors move away from growth and into value.  Technology has recently recovered very nicely from the late December 2018 lows and is currently setting up a very eerily similar pattern across multiple charts.

If our analysis is correct, we believe the Technology sector may be setting up for a downside price breakdown near the APEX of these Pennant/Flag formations that appear in our charts.  Near recent, all-time highs, this downside breakdown could be rather large in size, possibly as much as -20% to -35% or more, and could result in a global stock market decline that could shock most investors/traders.

The economic data that has recently been announced in the US continues to show moderate strength overall.  The jobs numbers are decent.  The consumer is still moderately active and we are getting into the Christmas Rally season.  Yet we are also in the midst of a Presidential Election cycle that continues to heat up and drive almost daily new headlines.  Our opinion is that the US consumer will become fixated on the political theater while we get closer to the November 2020 elections and may curb Christmas/holiday spending if news/perspective suddenly darken.

One of the first sectors we believe could break is the Technology sector – where foreign investors have poured billions into this sector while chasing price gains and to protect against foreign currency devaluation.  Once investors determine Technology is no longer “safe”, then a downside price event (true price exploration) will likely happen and we are concerned the downside risks could be much greater than 20~25%.

This AMD weekly chart provides one of the clearest pictures of the tight Pennant/Flag formation setting up in price.  After a Double-Top type of formation near $35, any further price advance was rejected near $36.  The current tight price rotation after the August 2019 peak suggests a very tight Pennant/Flag formation is setting up.  If our analysis is correct, the APEX/breakout/breakdown event is only a few days away.  Our count of the Pennant rotation suggests the breakdown move (lower) is the most likely outcome.

This AMZN chart highlights a similar pattern to the AMD chart.  Although the current Pennant/Flag formation is a little more defined, the structure is still the same.  An August 2019 high after a Double-Top formation, downward price rotation after the August 2019 peak and a clear APEX setting up RIGHT NOW.  The downside risk in AMZN is clearly a drop to near previous support (near $1310) – -20% or more.

GOOG provides a very clear example of the price volatility that is setting up a major Pennant/Flag formation.. Although the current setup is broader than the previous two examples, the potential for a breakdown event in GOOG is still strong.  The Double-Top pattern near $1280 provides clear resistance.  The recent narrowing price channel sets up a very clear Pennant/Flag formation.  We believe the downside price move in GOOG will initially target the lower price channel, then break that channel and continue lower.

Netflix has already broken below the lower price channel.  This is what brought this entire sector to our attention recently.  If Netflix continues lower, it could draw the entire Technology sector and US major indexes much lower over the next few days/weeks.  The downside price risk in Netflix is easily -25% to -45% – or more.

Our Custom Technology Index chart shows how the overall Technology sector is struggling to stay above the lower price channel.  Our concern is that one or more of the major technology firms may break the lower Pennant channel and attempt to start a breakdown in the US stock market.  If this is the case, then a panic may setup in the markets where investors dump technology very quickly.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Skilled technical traders are adept at finding ways to profit from nearly any price trends.  A quick trade in TECS or an Inverse NASDAQ ETF would allow many skilled traders to attempt to profit from this APEX/breakdown potential. We don’t have confirmation of the breakdown event just yet, but it certainly appears that the Technology sector could come under some severe pressure over the next 30+ days

Also, take a look at all my precious metals trade signals this year (2019) with a total gain for subscribers of my Wealth Building Newsletter of 41.74% profit. More than double the return than if you bought and held GDXJ gold miners ETF.

My point here is that no matter how much you love metals or technology stocks (and I LOVE them both), you do not need to always be in a position with them. There are times to own, and times to watch with your money safely in cash.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are life-changing events in a good way if traded correctly.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NOTICE : Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation, or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.  Visit our web site (www.thetechnicaltraders.com) to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

The Equities Wedge At The Edge – Front And Center

We continue to alert our followers of the extended Wedge (Flag or Pennant) formation that has setup over the past 16+ months in most of the US major indexes.  The reason these are so important for skilled technical traders is because the Apex of these formations typically result in a violent price move  that may result in a dramatic profit opportunity (or massive risk event).  The most interesting facet of the current Wedge formation is that it is happening just 12 months before the US Presidential Election cycle.

It is our believe that a major price reversion event will begin to take place over the next 2 to 6+ weeks and complete near the end of 2019 or into early 2020.  This reversion event is and continues to align with our super-cycle event analysis from earlier this year.  Our researchers believe this reversion event is essential for price to establish “true valuation levels” and to begin a renewed future price trend.  We believe that trend will begin between June 2020 and August 2020 and will result in a strong bullish price trend.  We also believe this bullish price trend in the US stock market may last well beyond 12+ months – well into 2021 and beyond.

CUSTOM TECHNOLOGY WEEKLY INDEX CHART

This Custom Technology Index chart highlights the Wedge formation that is one of our main concerns.  The Technology sector is one of the most heavily weighted sectors in the US stock market and the one that typically has the highest price to earnings multiple.  Over the past 5+ years, billions have poured into the Technology sector chasing the rally and the security of the US stock market/US Dollar.  A breakdown in this sector (like the DOT COM crash) could be devastating for the global markets.  As you can see, the price is already very close to the lower price channel and could breakdown within the next 2 to 5+ weeks.  Pay attention to weakness in the NASDAQ and/or the technology sector overall.

MONTHLY S&P 500 CHART

This S&P 500 chart highlights the rising Wedge formation that is set up and nearly complete.  This Monthly chart also highlights the extended volatility within the global markets compared to levels prior to 2018.  It is our opinion that the Apex of this Wedge will result in a breakdown/price reversion event targeting levels below 2600 on the SPX.  This reversion could extend to levels below 2000 on extended price weakness.  Our opinion is that the bottom will form sometime between December 2019 and April 2020 where a new Wedge formation will setup before reaching the Apex and starting a new upside price trend near August/October 2020.

We prepared for a very volatile price rotation/reversion event as these Wedges reach their Apex moment.  Skilled technical traders should be able to find lots of opportunity for profits over the next 6+ months with these big price rotations.

WEEKLY US DOLLAR CHART

The US Dollar will likely rotate within the Magenta price channel as this has continued to provide very clear price support over the past 20+ months.  We don’t believe the US Dollar will decline by more than 5% to 7% throughout the reversion event.  The fact is that the US Dollar has regained a level of dominance within the world and the US Dollar may continue to strengthen for many months into the future.

Remember, these reversion events are essential for proper price exploration and future price trends to establish.  They are fundamental to all price activity.  A healthy price rotation will allow for future trends to establish and mature well into 2021~2024.  The current Wedge formations must complete and the Apex rotation must happen in order for price to conduct “true price exploration” and “true price valuation”.  From these levels, price will establish a new price trend that may continue for many years into the future.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

We strongly suggest all readers consider the risks of their open portfolio positions and take steps to protect against any unwanted risk exposure.  As we are suggesting, we believe the Apex event will begin within 2 to 4+ weeks – possibly sooner.  If you want to know what we are advising our clients about this event, visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can assist you.

I urge you visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar!

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. This quick and simple to understand guide on trading with technical analysis will allow you to follow the markets closely and trade with it. Never be caught on the wrong sie of the market again and suffer big losses. PDF guide: Technical Trading Mastery

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Massive Price Reversion May Be Days or Weeks Away

Our researcher team believes a massive global market price reversion/correction may be setting up and may only be a few days or weeks away from initiating.  Our team of dedicated researchers and market analysts have been studying the markets, precious metals, and most recently the topping formation in the ES (S&P 500 Index).  We believe the current price pattern formation is leading into a price correction/reversion event that could push the US major indexed lower by at least 12 to 15%.

Historically, these types of price reversion events are typically considered “price exploration”.  Over time, investors push a pricing/valuation bias into the markets because of expectations and perceptions related to future market valuations and outcomes.  What happens when these current valuation levels and future expectations shift perspective from optimistic to potentially overvalued is that a price reversion event takes place.  This happens when investors shift focus, determine value exists at a different price level and abandon previous valuation expectations.

The rotation in price is actually a very healthy process that must take place from time to time.  The structure of price waves (for example Elliot Wave, Fibonacci, Japanese Candlestick, Gann and other price theories) are based on this process of price rising to overbought levels, then retracing to oversold levels – again and again as price trends higher or lower.  This is the process of “price exploration” – just as we are describing.  In order for price to trend higher or lower over time, price must move in the wave like pattern to identify true value (retracement/reversion) and extended value (a rally or selloff) in a type of wave formation.

Here are examples of the typical price wave formations within an extended or intermediate-term price trend, but before you continue quickly opt-in to our Free Market Trend Newsletter.

These price formations/structure are inherent in all price activity/movement in every financial instrument traded throughout the world.  They are the underlying structural foundation of all price activity and the basis of Elliot Wave, Fibonacci, Japanese Candlestick and many other price theories.

WEEKLY CUSTOM VOLATILITY INDEX

Our Custom Volatility index is highlighting a very interesting pattern/setup currently that suggests a moderate price reversion may take place over the next few days/weeks.  We’ve highlighted these patterns on the chart below illustrating how our Custom Volatility index helps to identify these types of patterns.  They form after a moderately deep price decline, the first downside (RED) line shown in these examples, and are followed by a moderate price recovery.  Then, a deeper price decline sets up only 3 to 5 weeks after the initial price bottom resulting in what can sometimes be a very broad market decline.

For example, the decline in February 2018 resulted in a very moderate second price decline compared to the initial selloff.  The October 2018 price decline resulted in a similar pattern on our Custom Volatility index, but the second price decline was much deeper and more violent than the example in February 2018.  This is the type of price correction that we are expecting to see happen within the next 2 to 4 weeks.

The current price rotation on our Custom Volatility index mirrors the previous rotations almost perfectly and the new breakdown event should only be 3 to 10+ days away from starting.  The big question is “will this be a moderate price reversion event or a more violent price reversion event like we saw in November/December 2018?”

WEEKLY CUSTOM SMART CASH INDEX

Our Custom Smart Cash Index is suggesting weakness is dominating the global markets right now.  We would expect to see our Smart Cash index rise as investor expectations rally and as global stock markets rally.  Yet, this index has been steadily moving lower as weakness dominates investor sentiment.  We believe we may begin a new price reversion event (a price breakdown) on some news event or economic that could push the global stock market dramatically lower – possibly my 12%+ or more.  Our earlier, August 19th breakdown predictions, suggested a downside breakdown could result in a 16% to 24% market correction – these levels are still very valid.

WEEKLY DOW JONES INDEX

The Dow Jones Index is setting up a DUAL-FLAG (pennant) formation that has kept our researchers entranced over the past few months.  This very broad market patter strongly suggests a very violent and explosive price move is just days or weeks away.  We’ve highlighted the “Flag Apex Range” on this chart to show you where and when we expect this explosive move to begin.  Investors need to be very aware that these flag/pennant formations are extremely close to reaching the breakout/breakdown APEX and all of our other research tools are suggesting a move lower is the highest probability outcome given the current markets setup.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

As we’ve stated earlier, the global markets are very much “waiting on news events”.  It appears fundamentals and earnings are driving only 30~40% of the market movement recently.  NEWS is driving 60% to 70% of the global markets price rotation.  Geopolitical news, commodity supply news, war or any other aggression news is also very important in today’s world.  Pay attention to the news items that hit the markets as the global central banks attempt to navigate the undulating global market environment.

Our advice for skilled technical traders would be to protect everything from risks and prepare for some very extreme volatility over the next 3 to 15+ days.  We believe the APEX even is about to happen and it could become a massive price reversion event.

I urge you visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar!

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. This quick and simple to understand guide on trading with technical analysis will allow you to follow the markets closely and trade with it. Never be caught on the wrong sie of the market again and suffer big losses. PDF guide: Technical Trading Mastery

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.  Visit our web site (www.TheTechnicalTraders.com) to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

Is A Price Revaluation Event About To Happen?

Skilled technical traders must be aware that price is setting up for a breakout or breakdown event with recent Doji, Hammer and other narrow range price bars.  These types of Japanese Candlestick patterns are warnings that price is coiling into a tight range and the more we see them in a series, the more likely price is building up some type of explosive price breakout/breakdown move in the near future.  The ES (S&P 500 E-mini futures) chart is a perfect example of these types of price bars on the Daily chart (see below).

Tri-Star Tops, Three River Evening Star patterns, Hammers/Hangmen and Dojis are all very common near extreme price peaks and troughs.  The reason they form is that price is unable to rally or fall far enough within a normal trading day to project broader range types of Japanese Candlestick patterns and these rotational/top/bottom types of Japanese candlestick patterns are often found at or near key reversal points in price.  When they form in a series, like we are seeing currently, it is a very ominous warning that price will react in an explosive movement – either UP or DOWN. Be sure to opt-in to our Free Trade Ideas Newsletter.

Here are some examples of how these types of Japanese Candlesticks may appear in a chart.

Hammer type of patterns are similar to Doji pattern because the difference between the open/close price is very narrow.  Yet, instead of the Open/Close range forming near the middle of the price bar, Hammers form when this range forms near the high or low of the price bar.  They fall into the “umbrella” group of patterns and warrant a bit of extra consideration depending on where they form in price.  The can often create very clear warning signals just prior to a major price reversal.

SP500 (ES) DAILY CHART

This ES Daily chart highlights the sideways DOJI/HAMMER price channel that is setting up over the past 5+ trading days.  We believe this sideways, narrow price range, is going to prompt a massive price breakout or breakdown in the near future.  Historically, this current price level is strong resistance, thus, until we see any price move above 3035 on the ES, we must assume this resistance will continue to hold and a breakdown event may be the likely outcome.  The only way we can determine if price is capable of attempting to move higher is to wait for price to actually make a new high price above previous resistance.

MID CAP INDEX DAILY CHART

This MC, MidCap, Daily chart highlights the same period of time, but notice the range of the price bars on this MC chart are broader in range and scope.  We are not seeing Dojis bars like we are seeing on the ES chart.  This suggests that the real price action is taking place in the MidCap market, the Transportation Index and other trading instruments.  We would likely need to watch how the rest of the market is reacting to this sideways trading while attempting to understand that the S&P is setting up for a big breakout or breakdown event.

MID CAP INDEX WEEKLY CHART

This MC Weekly chart hSP500 (ES) Daily Chartelps us to understand the past 2+ years price rotation and why the current price levels, near 2000, are so important.  In January 2018, price collapsed from these levels.  In October 2018, price again collapsed from these levels – into a massive -24.85% downside move.  Currently, we’ve seen price test the 1995 level multiple times and fail.  Will it fail again and what is the potential for a broader downside price move?

As we stated earlier, until price is able to clear the 2000 price level, we must assume that resistance near 2000 will continue to hold and that price is more likely to move lower than higher at this time.  The only way we can determine if price is going to attempt to rally is to wait for it to attempt to reach a new high price from within recent price rotation.

Headed into this weekend, we would strongly suggest that all skilled technical traders plan for and prepare for some type of external new events, crisis events or anything that could drive price higher or lower.  It seems news is one of the biggest driving factors in the global markets recently.  Traders/investors are waiting for an impetus to drive trends.  The US Fed dropping rates really didn’t do much to improve investor sentiment.  It appears global traders want something BIGGER and BROADER to push prices higher at this time.  Improved global trade and economic ties would do it – but we don’t think that is going to happen within the next 3+ months.

Get ready for a wild ride and be sure to subscribe to my ETF trading newsletter so you don’t miss these opportunities www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

VIX To Begin A New Uptrend and What it Means

The news of the drone attack on Saudi Arabia over the weekend prompted a big upside move in Oil (over 10%) and a moderate downside rotation in the US major indexes/stock market.  Although prices had recovered slightly by the opening bell on Monday, September 16, the shock wave resulting from this disruption in oil supply is just now starting to play out.

The long term uncertainty in the markets, as well as the rotation in the US Dollar and other foreign currencies, could play a bigger role in the type of volatility and extent of the immediate price rotation that may result from this external news event.  Our VIX predictions and ADL predictive modeling system are suggesting volatility will become front and center over the next 60+ day before settling into a more narrow price range.

As we see it, this disruption in oil is an external factor related to the markets.  Yes, it will disrupt about 5% of the global oil supply.  Yes, some type of retaliation could take place over the next 30 to 60 days.  Yes, the global markets will continue to rotate until they have priced in the additional risk related to this current event and potential future events.  That means investors must understand the value and opportunity of proper position sizing and risk management.  The next few weeks may be full of surprises.

VIX INDEX FIBONACCI UPSIDE TARGETS CHART

Our VIX chart highlights what we expect in terms of the potential upside price volatility in the US stock market.  You can see we expected the VIX price to decline after the peak in early August 2019, then bottom near August 20~21 and attempt a move higher (related to our August 19 breakdown expectations).  This breakdown never happened as news events pushed the general markets higher – abating the spike in the VIX we were expecting.  Our further expectations were that VIX would cycle lower near the end of August 2019 and into very early September 2019 before setting up a bottom near 24 and extending higher.  Obviously, our expected levels were off by quite a bit, but the rotation in the VIX continues to align with our rotational cycles.

Therefore, we believe the potential for an upside price move in the VIX is still very valid, especially given the events of last weekend and the continued trade talks, market fragility and potential for major news events.  We believe the VIX may be starting an upward price cycle that could push it well past 21~24 should the US stock markets rotate lower or contract.

 

SP500 INDEX WEEKLY ADAPTIVE DYNAMIC LEARNING (ADL) CHART

Our ES Weekly Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) chart highlights why we believe an extended volatility range exists over the next 60+ days and why we believe a rotation of 8 to 12% is a real possibility in the US stock market/major indexes.  Our ADL predictive modeling system is very useful because it highlights where price may attempt to target out into the future based on a proprietary price mapping/data mining solution.  The purpose of this tool is to map historical price activity by unique price pattern, technical data and categories, learn from the past and attempt to use this data to predict the future.  We’ve found it to be extremely valuable in our research.

This ES Weekly ADL chart suggests an 8 to 12% price range is set up in the US stock markets over the next 60+ days.  This suggests that and price weakness or external news event could send the US stock market much lower before finding any real support.  Any absence of this breakdown event or crisis-type news event would suggest that prices will attempt to drift moderately higher over the next 60+ days.

In other words, there is a very real potential for a potentially big downside price rotation currently set up in the markets.  That potential vanishes in early November 2019 as the ADL predictive modeling system suggests a more narrow target range for the price with an upside price bias driving markets to potentially new all-time highs.

 

CONCLUDING THOUGHT:

Get ready for some really great trading opportunities over the next 4+ months.  Any downside price rotation will present a very clear buying opportunity for skilled technical traders and members of our ETF Wealth Building Newsletter as we lead into the November/December market rally (Christmas Rally).  This means we must continue to be cautious of extended volatility and play these price rotations with a strong focus on managing risk before the November/December rally sets up to close out 2019.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

So, if you believe in technical analysis, then this is the newsletter and market condition for you to really shine.

Be prepared for these price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH SUBSCRIPTION!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

METALS ARE FOLLOWING DOWNSIDE SELL OFF PREDICTION BEFORE THE NEXT RALLY

It is absolutely amazing how the precious metals markets have followed our October 2018 predictions almost like clockwork.  Our call for an April 21~24 momentum base below $1300 followed by an extensive rally to levels above $1550 has been playing out almost like we scripted these future price moves.

Now that the $1550 level has been reached, we are expecting a rotation to levels that may reach just below the $1490~1500 level before attempting to set up another momentum base/bottom formation.  And just like clockwork, Gold has followed our predictions and price is falling as we expected. Just look at our October 2018 chart where we forecasted the price of gold rallies and corrections along the way.

GOLD FORECAST & IS THE DEBT CRISIS ABOUT TO BE REBORN IN 2020?
https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/is-the-debt-crisis-about-to-be-reborn-in-2020/

GOLD MINERS SELL OFF – DAILY CHART

Unfortunately, so many traders are highly emotional and fall in love with positions in shiny metals or gold miner stock positions. Yet we all know if you trade on emotions or fall in love with a position, you are most likely to lose a ton of money. Two weeks ago I got so much flack from traders when I said gold miners were on the verge of a violent drop in price, then the bottom fell out and the dropped huge. Then last Thursday morning when gold, silver, and miners are trading up huge in pre-market and at the opening bell I warned it looked like a big fakeout and price could collapse for yet a second leg down and the same response from those emotional traders who love their positions and won’t sell them when they should as active traders.

The downside rotation currently in Gold is likely not quite over yet and the gold mines will selloff the most.  This new momentum base should setup and complete above $1455~1465 as a true Fibonacci price rotation completes.  The next upside price leg should push Gold well above the $1760~1780 level – so get ready for another big rally of 20%+.

 

CAN YOU OUTPERFORM THE GDXJ?

If you like to trade in the precious metals sector then you most likely love to trade the gold miners ETF GDXJ. As you can see above GDXJ is only up 19.55% year to date. Sure, it’s a nice gain, but are you still holding your metals position knowing you just gave back most or all of your profits?

Being a technical analyst my focus is to only enter a position when the charts/analysis point to an immediate price advance or decline. I site in cash waiting for the next cycle top or bottom to form in an asset class like gold miners, gold, silver, or silver miners, and once the cycle starts I jump on the wave and ride it for the move until it shows signs that its weakening and will break. almost 50% of the year my portfolio is sitting in cash. And my average position only lasts around 12 days.

Take a look at all my precious metals related trades this year (2019) below. They are all winners, and total gain for subscribers of my Wealth Building Newsletter is 41.74% profit. More than double the return than if you were riding the GDXJ roller coaster for 9 months straight and all your money at risk.

My point here is that no matter how much you love metals (and I LOVE METALS), but you do not need to always be in a position in them. There are times to own, and times to watch with your money safely in cash.

 

 

GOLD EXPECTATIONS – DAILY CHART

The one aspect of all of this that all skilled technical traders need to keep in mind is that this initial upside price move in precious metals is very indicative of extended fear and greed in the global markets.  We all need to understand how every upside move of $10 in Gold related to a new, high, extreme fear level related to the global markets.  The bottom in Gold, near November 2016, was in relation to fear that the global markets would become, potentially, rattled by the new US president.  The continued upside move in Gold is less of that extended fear as we are entering the new US 2020 presidential election cycle.  At this point, it is related to the fear that the global markets have extended beyond means to sustain future growth expectations and that central banks may be losing control (and the ability to manipulate) the global financial markets.

The end result is that the fear and greed that is starting to show up in the precious metals markets may become an “unruly beast” if it continues to grow in strength and velocity.

 

SILVER EXPECTATIONS – DAILY CHART

Our expectations with Silver was that it would stall just below $17, rotate downward briefly and then begin another upside move – somewhat inline with Gold.  What really happened is that Silver prices extended to levels just below $20 before weakening.  This is partially due to the fact that metals suddenly became more “in focus” for global investors and also partially due to the fact that Silver suddenly became a “hot topic” because of the Gold/Silver ratio that continued to stay above 86~89.  Once traders realized the incredible value that Silver really presented – it seemed everyone started piling into the silver trade and we believe this increased volume drove prices towards the $20 level.

Still, Silver has recently rotated lower again, moving to levels below $18 and following Gold into a momentum basing pattern.  We do believe Silver and Gold may have a bit further to go to the downside before really finding support.  Our researchers believe Silver may target the $17 price level before completing the momentum base.  If this is the case, skilled traders should look for opportunities below $17.40 and get set up for the next upside price leg.

 

Keep reading our research because our proprietary tools have been nailing all of these price targets and moves many months in advance.  The next bottom in metals should set up within the next 10~15+ days – then the next upside leg will begin.  This time Gold should target $1800 and Silver should target $21 to $24.  This will be an incredible move higher if it plays out as we suspect.

I urge you visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar!

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com