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Transportation Index Points To Stock Markets Weakness

The recent news that the US and China will restart trade talks resulted in a fairly large upside price rotation as this “good news” suggests that some resolution to the trade issues may be in the works soon. Yet we want to warn traders that the US will likely want to see progress and action regarding any trade resolution before tariffs are reduced and eventually removed.  We can’t imagine that the US would take any promises stated by China as any real progress towards balancing trade or normalizing relations.  We believe the process of resolving the US/Chinese trade dispute could still be many months away from any real opportunities for traders and the global markets.

The other issue on the table this week and in the immediate near future is the “no-deal” BREXIT.  News that the Queen assisted Boris Johnson by shuttling Parliament in the UK to help facilitate a “no-deal” BREXIT could send shock-waves throughout the global markets over the next 30 to 60+ days.  Even though the US and UK appear to have settled on some strong trade resolutions to help calm the waters, the fallout in the EU as well as the reverberations that may be felt throughout the world over the next 12+ months. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to our Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter

Weekly Transportation Index

Overall, we are relying on some of our favorite alternate charts to help us understand what the markets are really showing us in terms of price action and direction.  One of our favorites, the Transportation Index, has recently crossed below the Bearish Fibonacci Trigger Level (early Aug 2019) and continues to trail below 10,400.

A double-bottom setup has formed near the 9695 level that appears to be a fairly strong level of support.  If this level is broken in the future, our Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting downside price targets below 8500 (below the lows in December 2018).  This would suggest that any real downside risk could extend the US indexes below the December 2018 lows on a breakdown move.

SP500 Daily Index Chart

]As we try to translate the Transportation Index analysis into the ES chart, the very first thing we focus on is the tight, sideways price range that continues to “coil” before a breakout/breakdown move.  The low set up in early August 2019 (near 2775.75) is still the most recent critical low in price formation.  The other recent low present a very interesting setup – a potential Double-bottom setup near 2817.75, yet we also see a recent “new low” setup from the dip in price on August 26 (with a low of 2810.25).  This new low follows the Fibonacci price theory rules to support a bearish/downside price trend setup that should continue to dominate the markets until we see any type of “new highs”.  Therefore, the analysis of the TRAN chart and the current setup in the ES continues to suggest a breakdown move is likely.

SP500 Weekly Index Chart

This Weekly ES chart highlights how the Fibonacci price modeling system is interpreting the recent volatility and price rotation over the past 18+ months.  Pay very close attention to the current Bullish and Bearish Fibonacci Trigger Levels.  While you are at it, pay very close attention to the previous Bullish and Bearish Fibonacci Trigger Levels.  What you will notice is that the current price rotation over the past few weeks is right between the current and past Fibonacci trigger levels for both the Bullish and Bearish price rotation going all the way back to the downside rotation in November/December 2018.  This would suggest that the current price level is very fragile in terms of future direction.

We are not seeing any real clear price direction or trend right now, the current Fibonacci price trigger levels are more than 100 points away from the current price (either direction) and the support level near 2800 is still holding.  The Daily chart suggests price is attempting to hold above support near 2880.  Yet the new low on the Daily chart suggests price has recently shown a Fibonacci Trend with potentially confirms price weakness and a potential bearish outcome.

How are traders to interpret all of this information and make decisions?

Headed into this weekend, our research team suggests pairing back any open long positions you may have in your portfolio off of these recent highs and preparing for a bigger price move going into the end of 2019.  Our researchers still believe a breakdown in price will occur as the BREXIT, US/China trade issues and further economic contractions continue to undermine real growth opportunities going into the end of 2019.  But time will tell if we are correct in our interpretations or not. Check out these other exciting trading tools and chart full of opportunities that we will be sharing.

We believe the news events are artificially supporting the markets with expectations that may prove to be many many months away.  Watching the other “alternative” charts (like the TRAN, XLF, IWM, YINN, and others), we can clearly see the price recovery in the ES, NQ, and YM are somewhat isolated price moves related to news related expectations.  The rest of the market is not reacting like these major indexes.

We would advise traders and investors to take advantage of these higher prices to pull profits out of open long positions and take some risk off the table at this juncture in price. We entered a new trade today and our portfolio is primed and ready for big moves going into next week.

We believe super-cycle research and other proprietary modeling systems are suggesting that price weakness will dominate the markets for the next few months.

We are only 5 to 11 days away from a new major event and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis and recession.

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH SUBSCRIPTION!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Energy Sector Setting Up For Another Big Trade

Our research team has been nailing some really great trades recently in Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, ETFs, and many other market segments.  Some of these trades have resulted in fantastic gains of +10% to +20% for our members.

One trade in particular that we called back in July was the Energy trade in Crude Oil and ERY.  Specifically, we suggested that Crude Oil would fall based on our ADL predictive modeling system and that ERY would set up a very nice trade with targets set relatively close to the basing/bottom pattern. But first, be sure to opt-in to our free market forecast signals newsletter

You can read our original research here:

July 10, 2019: PREDICTIVE MODELING SUGGEST OIL HEADED MUCH LOWER

July 26, 2019: ENERGY SETS UP TWO NEW TRADES – HERE THEY ARE

While the original setup resulted in a fantastic trade setup and completion – where both targets hit and the price extended more than $10 beyond our Target 2, we are now alerting you that ERY will likely set up another, even bigger, opportunity over the next 30+ days.

We believe our previous research, particularly related to Crude Oil, will result in ERY rotating lower over the next 20+ days, possibly towards the $50 level, before setting up another momentum base and beginning an upside move targeting the $70 to $75.  If our research is correct, this move will come at a time when global markets are expecting must slower economic activity and/or a massive supply glut in Oil.

Daily ERY Chart (Inverse Energy Sector ETF)

This Daily ERY Chart shows the original trade setup that occurred after our July 26 post and includes the original target levels drawn as YELLOW ARROWS on the chart.  It is easy to see the success of this trade and how ERY rotated higher as Crude Oil weakened.

Weekly ERY Chart (Inverse Energy Sector ETF)

This Weekly ERY chart highlights what we believe will be the next trade setup which will start to complete the momentum base sometime near the end of September or into early October.  We expect the rally in ERY to begin in mid-October and carry on into November, based on our ADL predictive modeling system (see the original article listed above).

We believe the downside rotation in ERY that we are expecting will coincide with a moderate upside move in Crude Oil over the next 30+ days before a bigger breakdown in Oil prices creates this incredible opportunity in ERY.  Skilled technical traders just need to wait for the momentum base to complete. I just posted this gold and silver trading setup unfolding here.

Check out these exciting charts full of opportunities that we will be sharing.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

If you follow our ADL predictive modeling system’s research, you’ll see that it expects Crude Oil to break down to levels below $40 before or near the end of 2019.  That move could come quicker than we expect is global markets accelerate the economic slowdown we’ve seen recently.  We’ll keep you informed of this, and other, great trades as they setup.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH SUBSCRIPTION!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Has the Basing Setup In Natural Gas Completed?

Back in June 2019, we posted a research article suggesting that Natural Gas was setting up an extended basing pattern below $2.35 preparing for a seasonal rally that typically initiates in late August or early September.  We believe the basing pattern has nearly completed and now is the time to begin positioning for the upside price rally that we believe will hit in Natural Gas as early a September 5th or so.

Our original research posts to review :

June 10, 2019: NATURAL GAS MOVES INTO BASING ZONE

June 25, 2019: NATURAL GAS SETS UP BOTTOM PATTERN

Our research tools suggest that September has a 65% probability of rallying more than 6x the historical range.  This would suggest a rally potential of more than $2 exists in September for Natural Gas.  Our tools also suggest that October has a 75% probability of rallying more than 3.2x the historical range.  This would suggest a potential rally of more than $1.20 in October.

Combine those potential moves and probabilities over a 60-day span and we are talking about a $2.50 to $3.50 potential price rally with a 70%+ historical probability of success. But first, be sure to opt-in to our free market forecast newsletter.

Daily Natural Gas Chart

This Daily Natural Gas Chart highlights the price rotation as price continued to base below the $2.40 level.  We’ve also highlighted the basing range as a blue rectangle on this chart.  We expect the upside move to begin in early September and to continue to rally towards the $2.75 level before finding initial resistance.  It is very likely that this rally will build momentum as we end October and start into September.  It will not be “straight up” as we have drawn on this chart.

Weekly Natural Gas chart

This Weekly Natural Gas chart highlights our longer-term expectations for the price rally.  The initial move will likely end just below $3.00 (likely in the $2.75 to $2.95 range).  After that level is reached, we expect a bit of resistance as price rotates near the Bullish Fibonacci Price Trigger Level, then rallies beyond it to target levels above $3.65.  Once price moves above $3.50, we could experience a price spike as we had in 2018 where price reached as high as $5.00 in Natural Gas.  Skilled technical traders could play this move for incredible profits if they time their entries and exits well.

UGAZ 3x Long Natural Gas ETF Chart

We believe most skilled technical traders that want to avoid massive leveraged risks should consider trading UGAZ – the 3x Long Natural Gas ETF.  Yes, risks still exist in this trade as any further downside price rotation before a rally begins could present a moderate degree of loss.  Yet, we believe the upside potential for the rally and the historical data supporting the very strong probability for an upside price rally outweighs the risks at this time.  Support near $11 would be our ultimate downside price risk.  Any entry below $14 would be acceptable given the current setup and expectations.  Immediate upside expectations are for price to move towards the $18 level, then pause before moving even higher towards the $22 to $24 level.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Remember, we called this move over 60 days ago and are alerting you to the very real possibility that the basing pattern is complete.  We expect the upside price rally to begin very early in September at this point and the timing of this trade seems perfectly aligned with our historical price modeling systems and other predictive modeling tools.

This could be one of the best short term trades going into the end of 2019.  You won’t want to miss this one.

Check out these exciting charts full of opportunities that we will be sharing.

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

ES Must Hold Above 2800 Or The Selling Will Intensify

First off, we were so happy to hear from all of our followers over the weekend and early today regarding their support for our incredible market predictions – specifically the call about the August 19th breakdown prediction.  We stuck to our guns believing in our predictive modeling systems and our research team.  We knew it would be just a matter of time before the weakness our models were showing us to actualize in a real price breakdown.  We want to thank all of you who wrote to us and thanked us and our team for their hard work and dedication.

Now, we’ll highlight some recent events in the ES chart (S&P500 E-Mini Futures) and how it related to the bigger picture in the markets.

Before we get into the details of the market recovery today, we want all of you to understand that is natural for the markets to move in rotational waves as price establishes new highs or lows.  In fact, it is essential and healthy for the markets to do this.  When the markets move in an unnatural way by trending excessively over short periods of time, it reflects an imbalance in the fundamentals of the markets or the core elements of supply/demand economics.  When the bottom falls out of a market, for example, it is usually because of some type of external news item or some other type of external factor/event.  The markets themselves naturally have a way of processing expectations and price value through the process of buying and selling in an open market.

Therefore, as we continue this research post, please understand that any further price breakdown will likely become a process of price waves or rotations over the next few days and weeks that continue to break the most recent series of upward sloping highs and lows (from January 2019 till July 2019). But first, be sure to opt-in to our free stock market forecast newsletter.

Let’s get started with the analysis.

240 Minute ES Chart Highlights

This first 240 minute ES chart highlights the intraday rotational price structure and how the Fibonacci price modeling system is currently identifying 2850 to 2897 as a key Support/Resistance level for the price.  Initially, as the breakdown in price happened on Friday and late Sunday, price blew past the projected Fibonacci target levels.  This can sometimes happen in extended trending or when outside news drives market price one direction or another.  The basics of Fibonacci price theory are that price will attempt to revert to within the last trending range before attempting to establish a new price highs or new price low.  So with each subsequent higher or lower move within a trend, the price will attempt to revert within that range before attempting another trend/move.

In this case, the 2850 to 2897 level is the target level identified by the Fibonacci Target Levels that we want to watch.  This is where the price will likely initiate the next big move from and we believe it will be to the downside.

Daily Chart Highlights

This Daily chart highlights the 2887 level for both the LONG and SHORT Fibonacci Trigger Price Level.  The one thing we want you to take away from this research article is how the levels all seem to align with one another.  This Daily chart is suggesting levels that align with the 240-minute chart.  This is very important and provides consistency across multiple intervals for the Fibonacci system.

At this point 2887 is critical for price.  Any measure to stay above this level would provide greater confidence that some type of price recovery may form in the future.  Any failure to stay above this level would mean the breakdown should continue lower.

The last item we want to highlight on this Daily chart is the 2817 level (the BLUE projected Fibonacci target level).  This aligns very closely with the data you’ll see on the next Weekly chart.  Pay attention to how these levels work together to pinpoint price structures.

Weekly ES chart

This Weekly ES chart shows the bigger Fibonacci price modeling system and the key levels we are watching on the longer-term charts.  Obviously, the 2790 to 2800 level is critical on this chart.  That is a price level that aligns with the BLUE Fibonacci downside target level and the past Bearish Fibonacci Trigger Level from June 2019.  It is very likely that this level will be the last level of defense for a price if the breakdown continues.  This weekly chart also highlights that we need to see price move below 2575 to qualify as a “new Bearish Trend” on this chart.   So we have a long way to go before we can really attempt to confirm a new longer-term Bearish trend is in place.

The way the Fibonacci modeling system address volatility can sometimes extend the range of the Trigger levels based on how price reacts and sets up.  In this case, because of the extended volatility in the markets and because of how the price has rotated recently, the Fibonacci price modeling system will not confirm a new bearish price trend until price moves below 2575.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

This sets up a type of “ladder pricing event” in our future.  First, the 2887 level (from the Daily chart).  Then 2850 (from the 240-minute chart).  Then the 2795 to 2817 level.  After that – LOOK OUT BELOW.

Over the next few days and weeks, we’ll see how these levels are targeted and/or breached as the price continues to rotate.  We believe this downside rotation is just starting at this point and we have yet to really break below the 2728 lows from June 2019.  Price MUST break these levels if the true breakdown move we are expecting is going to take place.  Get ready for some really great trades – they are about to unload on all of us.

Check out these other exciting charts full of opportunities that we will be sharing with our followers.

Join us with a subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride our coattails as we navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset ETF Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

The August Stock market Breakdown Prediction and Analysis

Our August 19th breakdown prediction aligns with our other analysis tools and predictive modeling systems.  The key to understanding price action lies in two modes of operational aspects for analysts.  Either the analysis is going to be correct and the markets will break down as we have predicted or the analysis will be incorrect and the markets will break higher to rally to new highs.  We call this the “failure to fail” mode or the “failure to succeed” mode of compliance for price.  Either it will do what we expect or it won’t.

There are a few things that we, as analysts, must take into consideration with regards to future predictions of price action and direction.  First, sometimes we fail to make perfect predictions.  It is not easy or 100% guaranteed that our predictions will become valid or accurate on the day we suggest price should move in a certain direction.

We are going to show you the ADL charts that support our predictions and we are going to discuss why we believe the setup is still valid, but we are going to have to let price confirm our prediction and wait for it to move in a direction that either confirms our research or invalidates it.

As many of you know, we use advanced tools to help us understand and predictions regarding future price moves.  Many of our tools align with price cycles, predictive modeling, and other price modeling tools that we use to try to understand where and when the price may turn or continue to trend in a specific direction.

One of our most advanced tools is the Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling tool.  With it, we can ask the ADL tool to show us what price will attempt to do in the future based on a type of DNA candlestick mapping that attempts to isolate the highest probability outcomes.

Weekly NQ Futures Index Chart

Below, we’ve included a Weekly NQ ADL chart that shows you what our ADL predictive modeling system it expecting the NQ price to do over the next 10+ weeks.  You can see from this chart that price is expected to trail lower from current levels and to potentially reach a low point of 6500 by early October 2019.

One other aspect that we must consider is that price can sometimes react 2-5 weeks later than the ADL predictive price levels show.  We call these Price Anomalies.  This is where price sets up an unusual price formation that is actually moving against the ADL predictive price level (in this case, staying higher while the ADL predictive price level moves lower).

We determine these to be price anomalies because, in most cases, the price will eventually break toward the ADL predictive price level in a reversion move.  Therefore, these anomalies can sometimes be very good trading signals as price moves against the ADL predicted trend.

Be sure to opt-in to my free market research newsletter


VIX Weekly Chart

The ADL of the VIX Weekly chart shows a spike in the VIX levels over the next 3 to 7+ weeks.  This spike will likely coincide with a downward price move in the US markets that could begin as early as early September 2019.

The purpose of this ADL VIX Chart is to show you how our ADL modeling system is able to warn us of future price moves and how we can align certain analysis results with other charts to form a larger perspective of the markets in general.


Concluding Thoughts:

As of right now, the August 19th breakdown prediction we shared more than a month ago still stands as the price has yet to rally above 8050 on the NQ to present a new upside price trend.  Our ADL predictive modeling system is still suggesting that the price wants to move lower from current levels and attempt to target the 6500 price level.

Even though the exact August 19th date did not result in a price breakdown event, you must understand we were calling for a breakdown to happen “on or near August 19”.  That means sometime this week or next week most likely – possibly a bit later if the price anomaly of the stock indexes holding up at the upper end of our ADL price range.

If you’ve followed our research long enough you’ll understand that we can make these predictions about the future based on our advanced predictive modeling tools and research – yet we can’t be 100% accurate on the date/time of the event because we don’t have the ability to see that much detail or control what the global markets do in terms of price, trends, global central banks, and other factors.  We can only relate what we see in the markets using our modeling tools and attempt to help you understand what our predictive modeling systems are suggesting.

Right now, a price anomaly where the price is trading above our expected price prediction level appears to be set up which will likely result in a price breakdown in the near future (3 to 10+ days).  Time will tell.  If price rallies because of some external factor and breaks the 8050 highs on the NQ, then we would consider the ADL predictive analysis result to potentially be invalidated because of this new high.  Currently, that is not the case and we are waiting for the breakdown event to begin and will position our money accordingly when price confirms the move.

If you like this big-picture analysis and forecasts be sure to opt-in to my free market research newsletter or let me send you my low-risk index ETF trade signals plus my analysis with my Wealth Building Trading Newsletter.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Part III – Is the Fed Too Late Prevent A Housing Market Decline?

So, the reality is that based on our modeling system and our research, there are only two ways that the US Fed (and likely the global central banks) can navigate out of this inflation killing debt glut that has sunk the global markets into a quicksand-like economic malaise; either A. reduce debts dramatically across the board (all nations) in an attempt to allow for some level of future growth/inflation opportunity, or B. find a way to push GDP out levels to 2x (or higher) that of current debt levels.  A is much more difficult to negotiate and navigate – but it may be an option sometime in the future.  B is the more likely option with a transition into some type of new 21st-century economic model that assists in advancing the build-it, sell-it model.

In the last, Part II, a section of our research, we showed you a chart of our US Fed modeling system and where we believe the US Fed should be targeting rates currently.  The one thing that was a bit different than our original model, created in 2013, was the election of President Trump and the EU, US/China trade wars.  This could complicate things a bit in the future, but overall the model continues to perform well.

Our research suggests that given current global market factors, we are looking at a very narrow pricing structure for US fed rates that are completely dependent on consumer activities (consumer optimism and activity, perception of the economic opportunities and supply/demand price equilibrium).  Which is why we believe the next 15+ months could be very interesting for global traders and consumers.

We use a simple tool to track the levels and scope of the changing markets in various areas of the US and have noticed a dramatic increase in the numbers of Foreclosures and Pre-Foreclosures in various prime markets over the past 12+ months.  Take a look at some of these maps.

Be sure to opt-in to my free market research newsletter

In each one of these maps, there are more than 500+ current active Foreclosures and/or Pre-Foreclosure listing.  These are prime real estate areas like Los Angeles/Hollywood, CA, New York City, NY, San Francisco, CA, Phoenix, AZ, Chicago, IL and Newark, NJ.  Either the market is changing or the consumer is changing because affordability is sky-high.

The law of supply and demand dictates that when the price gets too high and affordability is beyond the scope of the average buyer, then price MUST fall to levels that support healthy buyers and re-balance the marketplace.  This type of price reversion has happened many times in the past, but this time we believe the US Fed may just let the dust settle and allow these foreclosures to funnel through the traditional channels (banks and financial institutions.

We do believe the US Fed is slightly behind the curve in terms of rate levels and actions.  The Fed waited till 2016 to begin raising rates when our model suggested rates should have been raised in 2013.  Additionally, the Fed raised rates above the 2.25% upper boundary of our modeling system.  The Fed recently began to decrease rates from the 2.5% level which we agree with.  The Fed target should be between 1.5% to 2.0% at this point and levels should fluctuate up and down within this range for the next 4+ years – gradually settling near 1.25% near 2024.

Again, there are only two outcomes that can dramatically alter the path without our modeling system – dramatic debt reduction or dramatic GDP increases.  Possibly, we may see a combination of both of these over the next 10+ years, but our belief is that the US Fed is trapped in a low growth, mild inflationary mode waiting for GDP to increase while attempt to PRAY that no asset bubble pops.  The reality is that bubble will pop and price levels will revert to find “true value” before any real GDP increases begin to take form.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

It’s going to be an interesting 10+ years, folks.  Get ready for some really big price swings in almost all the global markets and various sectors.

Real Estate has already run through the price advance cycle and the price maturity cycle.  There is really only one cycle left to unfold at this point which is the “price revaluation cycle”.  This is where the opportunity lies with select real estate ETFs which we are keeping my eye on to profit from falling real estate prices.

I can tell you that huge moves are starting to folding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these supercycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I urge you to visit my ETF Wealth Building Trading Newsletter  and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

THIS IS A KEY WEEK FOR US MARKETS, GOLD, AND OIL

Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders shares his thoughts on why this week is important for the US markets, gold, and oil. All of these are near strong support or resistance levels where if a break happens could result in an extended run. We breakdown the scenario for each market and level that are most important.

I can tell you that huge moves are starting to folding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these supercycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I urge you to visit my ETF Wealth Building Trading Newsletter  and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

PART II – Fed Too Late To Prevent A Housing Market Crash?

In Part I of this research, we highlighted the Case-Shiller index of home affordability and how it relates to the US real estate market and consumer economic activity going forward.  We warned that once consumers start to shift away from an optimistic view of the economy, they typically shift into a protectionist stance where they attempt to protect wealth, assets and risk of loss while attempting to weather the economic storm.

We’ve seen this happen in 2008-09 as well as after the 9/11 attacks in the US in 2001.  The process is always somewhat similar.  Consumers start to react to pricing levels that are unaffordable and do so by trying to skimp on extraneous purchases like travel, new cars, credit card debt or other items that are not essential.  The other thing that happens is that the lower tier borrowers (the “at-risk borrowers”) typically begin to become delinquent on debts and fall behind on their mortgage payments.  This is how the process starts.

Once it starts, a shift takes place in the market that can be sudden or it can be transitional.  The shift is often termed as a change from a “Seller’s Market” to a “Buyer’s Market”.  This terminology is used to describe who is in control of the transaction and who has the advantage within the transaction.  When it is a “Seller’s Market”, buyers are typically offering to pay MORE for an item/home and the seller does not have to stress about trying to sell their property/items.  When it is a “Buyer’s Market”, the buyer is able to negotiate with the seller, demanding more concessions, lower prices, better deals and often has a wide variety of sellers wanting to court the buyer away from other property/items.  See how this shift in market dynamics can really change the way a marketplace works.

Now, lets take a look at how the US consumer is doing, overall, and how it might reflect a change in the marketplace if certain fundamental change.

This chart of the delinquency rates for All Loans and Leases in the US shows an increase in the levels of delinquencies starting near the 2016 year.  This aligns with the year that the US Fed began raising the Fed Funds Rate and is exactly 1 year after the Chinese initiated capital controls to attempt to prevent local currency (Chinese Yuan) from leaving the country and landing in other countries as foreign assets.  In 2015, the delinquency rate for All Loans and Leases was near 2004~05 levels (below  30,000).  Right now, the level is above the 2008 level near 36,000.

Consumer Credit Card Delinquencies are rising sharply.  Since 2016, the increase in sub-prime credit card delinquencies has skyrocketed above the peak levels of 2008-09 and continues to stay above 5.5%.

Meanwhile, those nasty Mortgage Backed Securities held outright are still massively higher than in 2008/09 based on this Fred data.  We are unsure why the data is reported as ZERO in 2008, but we can safely assume that a $1.55 Trillion risk factor in these MBS levels is not something that we would consider a minor risk factor.

Now, in the first part of this article, we promised to show you some data from our proprietary Fed modeling utility and to show you what we use to determine if the US Fed is ahead of the curve or behind it.  Here you go..

Our original research model of the US economy and the Fed Rate levels into the future are shown below.  You can see that our model suggests the US Fed, as of 2013, should have been raising rates towards the 1.5% level then gradually raising them further towards 2.0% to 2.25% before 2017.  This type of increase would have slowed the advance of the real estate price levels and moderated the expansion of the debt levels that are currently associated within this sector.  Instead, the US Fed was late in their efforts to raise rates – starting only in late 2016.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Based on our model, current rates should be dropping toward levels near 1.25% to 1.75% as US debt, GDP and population levels continue to increase.  In the 4 years after the 2020 election, rates should stay below 2% as the US Fed is somewhat trapped until GDP increases dramatically.  Our modeling system suggests there are only two ways the US Fed can attempt to raise rates above 2.5% in the future; a. the US GDP increases dramatically (increasing to levels more than 1.5x total US debt annually), or b. US debt is dramatically reduced while GDP continues to grow at moderate rates.

In the last part of this 3 part article series, we’ll show you more data that will allow you to prepare for the future events that may unfold and show you how to watch for some of these trigger events yourself.

If you are like me and have friends who know nothing about real estate like cops and techie programmers building spec homes and thinking its easy money, then you know the market is or has already topped. In fact, take a look at home sales month over month in Canada.

House Values Declining Month Over Month

Real Estate has already run through the price advance cycle and the price maturity cycle.  There is really only one cycle left to unfold at this point which is the “price revaluation cycle”.  This is where the opportunity lies with a select real estate ETF I am keeping my eye on to profit from falling real estate prices.

I can tell you that huge moves are starting to folding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these supercycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I urge you to visit my ETF Wealth Building Trading Newsletter  and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Fed Too Late To Prevent A Housing Market Crash?

Real Estate is one of the biggest purchases anyone will make in their lifetime.  It can account for 30x to 300x one’s annual income and take over 30 years to pay off.  After you’re done paying for your property, now you have to keep paying to maintain it and to support the property taxes to keep it.  What has happened to the US Real Estate market since the 2008-09 global credit market collapse and is the US Fed behind the curve?

Case-Shiller Home Price Index

One of the most common indicators used to measure national housing affordability and price trend is the Case-Shiller Home Price Index.  In this chart, we are displaying the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index – including all markets in the US.  It is fairly easy to see that in last 2016, on a national level, the Case-Shiller index had reached the 2006 peak level.  After that, the new Trump economy pushed it even higher where we now near 210.  This is a very uncommon level for this index and because we are in uncharted territory with this 210 ranking, it should concern everyone that a reversion maybe somewhere in our future.

Fed Funds Rate data from early 1990 till now

The question we’ve been asking our research team is “Is the US Fed behind the curve in the markets and how will that translate into the US/Global equity markets?”

When we consider the recent Fed rate increases (starting in 2016), our research team compared these levels to a modeling system we build back in 2013.  This modeling system suggests what the US Fed should have been doing based on certain GDP, Population and other factors.  The chart below is the Current Fed Funds Rate data from early 1990 till now.  The rise in valuation on the Case-Shiller index can almost be directly correlated to the amount of money available in the global markets and the US Fed rate levels.  More money and lower interest rates mean everyone was stampeding into housing expecting it to increase in value (which it did).  But what is next with the US Fed turning cautious recently?

US 30 Year Mortgage Rate

The US 30 Year Mortgage Rate has continued to rotate between 3.5% and 5% (on average).  We all know these rates vary depending on the borrower’s credit rating and other factors. Yet we believe any rates above 4% (on average) are dangerous for the markets and once lenders start to tighten requirements for loans while sellers start to aggressively decrease their asking price in order to attract buyers, we could see a massive shift in the market within a matter of months, not years.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

The global markets are setting up for some type of event.  Capital is being pulled out of the markets as investors/traders wait to see what happens with the US/China trade issues, the EU as well as the US Presidential election in November 2020.  Many economists and researchers believe a recession is fast approaching and are waiting for any signs that it is starting.

Are the turmoils setting up in the global stock market about to fracture into the global real estate market as well?  As investors and consumers engage in risk aversion processes, how will that result in continued economic activity in certain sectors of the global market?  Could it be that we are about to experience an economic contraction/reversion event that many analysts have failed to comprehend?

In part II of this article, we’ll show you our US Fed proprietary modeling system’s data and show you why we believe something big is going to unfold over the next 3 to 5+ years.  We’ll also highlight some very interesting data regarding the US real estate market that you should be preparing for right now.

Real Estate has already run through the price advance cycle and the price maturity cycle.  There is really only one cycle left to unfold at this point – the “price revaluation cycle”.  This is where the opportunity lies with a select real estate ETF I am keeping my eye on.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these super cycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I urge you to visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Negative Yields Tell A Story Of Shifting Economic Leadership

Negative yields are becoming common for many of the world’s most mature economies.  The process of extending negative yields within these economies suggests that safety is more important than returns and that central banks realize that growth and increases in GDP are more important than positive returns on capital.  In the current economic environment, this suggests that global capital investors are seeking out alternative solutions to adequately develop longer-term opportunities and to develop native growth prospects that don’t currently exist.

Our research team has been researching this phenomenon and how it relates to the continued “capital shift” that is taking place throughout the globe.  We believe we have some answers for anyone interested in our opinions.  We also believe the longer-term answers will depend on what happens over the next 5 to 7 years throughout the globe and how economic expectations shift as well as how global debt is dealt with.

We urge all of our followers to read all of the segments of this research post about how the global central banks are pushing the envelope and have been for many years :

Aug 14, 2019: GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS MOVE TO KEEP THE PARTY ROLLING

Throughout our research, we referenced a number of current articles to determine our own outcomes and expectations.  Some of the articles we used as reference are listed below.

Sources for some of our research:

Each of these resources helped to create a bigger picture of what we believe will likely happen and how the process may unfold.  We’ll start by attempting to understand the core elements of the negative yield perspective and how/when it may change.

Negative yields are a result of expected economic malaise rooted in the understanding that GDP growth and economic output are relatively flat and not expected to rise.  It comes down to the fact that if investors identified true growth opportunities in the major global economies, the yields for the debt instruments would reflect investor optimism (resulting in higher yields).  Thus, the core element of the current global economic malaise is that the planet is transitioning from a very fragile 19th-century economic model into something new – we call it the 21st-century economic model.

This process will likely take an additional 10+ years to really begin to complete and may require many false starts as the world begins to understand exactly what is required to make this transition.  Debt, as a process of engaging in economic activity, is something that is essential for some level of inflation, income, and the creation of future growth.  Debt becomes a major issue when growth declines over extended periods of time resulting in a default risk for some nations/countries.  Yet, as the human population continues to expand and global central banks continue to attempt to find the spark that will launch the new economic growth model, debt is essential to avoid economic contraction.

As we’ve hinted to, above, we believe the true answer is the transition away from 19th century economic structures that have resulted in massive risk factors (like unfunded pensions, unfunded state, and federal liabilities and massive global bank, investment banking and industrial level economic “black holes”) and to move towards true new world economic model.  What that looks like is something we are considering at the moment and have a few ideas of.

Currently, there are a few new industries that show promise across the globe in terms of the new 21st-century economy and fledgling new industries.

_  Cannabis industry

_  Human Care Services Industry

_  Alternate housing Solutions

_  Eco-Sustainability Solutions

_  Fintech Wealth Creation Solutions

_  Social/Infrastructure Restoration Solutions

We believe the next 10+ years will become very fluid as traditional economic models are replaced with newer, more alternative, types of economic solutions that spark real growth industries and opportunities.  We hope this process of transition initiates fairly quickly before any extended failure process takes place to start the reduction of capacity and resources that will be required for the rebuilding of the new 21st-century economy.  Time will tell.

What this means for the rest of us is that we need to stay very focused on the fact that transitional asset shifts are very likely over the next 10+ years.  The only time in history that we believe was similar to the current global economic environment was shortly after WWII.  Global debts had skyrocketed and economic expectations throughout the planet were mild at best.  Germany and most of Europe was beginning a rebuilding process while most of SE Asia and Japan were also attempting to rebuild and restructure after a brutal series of global wars.  Much of the outside world was still in some form of an undeveloped economic structure at that time.  For most of the developed world, the process of rebuilding and identifying real economic growth came nearly 20 years after the end of WWII – near the late 1950s and early 1960s as a type of Renaissance Era.

Given today’s world and how quickly things progress, we believe the process may take about 7 to 14 years to complete this time – depending on how quickly we are able to transition the global away from risks and systematic failures that are a result of clinging to failed 19th-century components.

It is our opinion that wild price rotations in a variety of global assets will plague the global markets over the next 7+ years as pools of capital are moved into and out of opportunities for returns and gains.  We believe all of the world’s global markets are at risk for these very volatile rotations in price levels and that individual segments of the global markets will become targets for price declines and advances as capital attempts to force a “price discovery” process that seeks to identify true price values.

The process of true price discovery is convoluted with the steps of shaking off old expectations, risks, liabilities, falsehoods, and processes while attempting to identify real future value and executing the steps to transition these resources into renewed future expectations.  It is almost like tearing down a structure in order to build something better and more efficient from the usable pieces of the old structure.

Our opinion is that skilled technical traders need to stay very fluid right now and to understand that broader risk factors are at play throughout the globe.  Every major and minor economy on the planet will likely feel some aspect of the transition that is taking place within the global economy.  We’ve highlighted a few charts, below, to show variations of risk as related to the trends that have taken place over the past 8+ years.  Two of these charts shows a Pitchfork type of price channel.  Once price breaks below these price channels, we enter a new territory of downward price trends that will begin the price discovery process.

This chart of the German DAX suggests the lower price trend channel is currently near $9300.  As time progresses, that channel continues to rise.  We would expect the $10,000 level to be a critical psychological level going forward.

This chart of the FSTE 100 shows a similar pattern where the lower price channel is near $5450 currently.  As we progress further in time, that level continues to rise.  We would suggest the $6000 will become critical for price support in the FTSE going forward.

The SPY sets up a similar pattern but shows more of our cycle and other research elements.  The lower BLUE price channel, near $240, is our current price channel providing longer-term support.  Below that level, we would fall back to the 2016 lows near $209.40.

Pay attention to what happens in the global markets over the next 6 to 18 months.  The US Presidential election, Brexit and a host of other global issues are still playing out.  We believe we are just starting this transition process and we believe now is the time for all skilled technical traders to fully understand that risks, price rotation, and true price discovery are very likely outcomes that may drive very wild price moves for many years into the future.

We urge all of our followers to read all of the segments of this research post about how the global central banks are pushing the envelope and have been for many years :

Aug 14, 2019: GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS MOVE TO KEEP THE PARTY ROLLING

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In closing, sit back and think about all the opportunities that will be created over the next 7+ years if you are skilled enough to trade these massive price swings.  Think about how the world will transition away from risk factors that continue to plague our future and towards something that will usher in a 50+ year run of opportunity and gains.  If you are young enough to enjoy this run, now is the time you will want to find a solid team of people that can help you navigate this process and find success.

We are only halfway into August and we have already closed out 24.16% in gains from the falling SP500 using SDS, and the pop in gold using UGLD, and from the oversold bounce and rally in silver miners SIL.

We urge all of our followers to pay attention to our research, consider your options very closely and prepare for this next move by pulling some of your active portfolio away from risks and into more protective measures.  This Crazy Ivan event is just 10 days away and we really want to urge all of our followers to not under-estimate this event cycle.

WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

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Chris Vermeulen