Our researchers have created this research post to highlight a big price move based on super-cycle research and patterns that should begin on or near August 19, 2019. Back in April/May 2019, we started warning of a critical top formation we believed was aligned for July 2019. In May/June, we altered this date to align more closely with our super-cycle research and determined the August 19, 2019 date.
It is our belief that this date will initiate a breakdown price move that may align with external news related or economic related data. Our research continues to point to the potential for a large global breakdown in equity prices related to some type of near-crisis event. It could be related to something within the US or outside the US – but either way, we slice it, August 19 looks to be the date we need to focus on.
– Crazy Ivan Market Prediction for Stock Market and Volatility Article
–Crazy Ivan Precious Metals Prediction Article
FANG Custom Index Weekly Chart
This FANG custom index weekly chart highlights how our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs work in alignment with price rotation and trends. The theory behind this analysis is that price trends operate at a frequency and amplitude that we can map out – much like Tesla’s theory of Mechanical Resonance.
In our studies, we have learned how to identify relative price amplitude and frequency factors, then align these to price peaks and valleys. The result is that we can see where hidden support and resistance channels form and where the price will potentially reach an “inflection point”.
Right now, this week and next on this FANG chart are likely to see increased volatility and the potential for a price breakdown as the current RED arc level sets up a massive resistance channel.
Custom Smart Cash Index Chart
Our custom Smart Cash Index chart is also highlighting an overall weakness in the US and global markets. Once this chart breaks the lower price channel level, there is a very strong possibility that this index will break down toward the $134 level (or lower) as the global markets attempt to identify price support. Overall lows could target the $111 level (seeing in 2016) if the breakdown is excessive.
Custom Volatility Index
This Custom Volatility Index is suggesting a deeper price low is setting up if the August 19 breakdown date acts as we suspect. If the global markets break lower, then this Custom Volatility Index will be pushed into an extreme low territory (below 5.5) were a very deep bottom/base will setup (as we have seen before). If it reaches levels below 4.0, then we should be very close to a very deep “V” type bottom.
The recovery from this base/bottom will likely be somewhat extended as the shift in the capital around the globe seeks out the best, safest locations and returns. We believe this bottom will complete near the end of 2019 or into early 2020 where the US markets will quickly gain acceptance as the location for global assets to avoid extended risks.
What Does All This Mean?
August 19 is only a few days away and we could see fireworks start in the global financial market place.
If our analysis is correct, we have only 4 to 7+ days before a major breakdown in price starts and we are yet unsure of the source or intensity of this event if there is one. Multiple analysis types are pointing to August as a key turn date and the market could fall by as much as 16-25% if there is a trigger event to spark the crisis.
What should you do? Well, being a pilot, quasi engineer, and technical trader using logic, rules, and processes to do things. I always wait for the price to confirm a new trend before taking action and entering a position. This is how we profited last week from the SP500 index falling. We traded the 2x bear fund SDS and locked in a quick profit.
The days are long gone where I would buy or sell stocks or trends based on tips and forecasts. That type of trading is really called legal gambling and the odds generally are not in your favor unless you tips are coming from insiders who actually know something.
Using technical analysis and proven strategies we can follow the market trends and profit from them no matter which the market moves. We bet with the market (the house) and provide entry, target, and stops for all trades we initiate.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/32.png561850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-13 10:49:382019-08-13 10:49:38August 19 (Crazy Ivan) Event Only A Few Days Away
We’re borrowing a term from the movie Red October (source) that describes an unusual change of direction for a Russian submarine with the intent to seek out enemies and unknown targets – called a “Crazy Ivan”. We are using this term because we believe the markets are about to pull a very unusual “Crazy Ivan” move of their own – reverting to unknown price levels while the US/Global markets attempt to seek out risk, support, resistance and other unknown “revaluation” targets in the process.
Our belief is that a key cycle date, August 19, 2019, will be the start of a breakdown in the US markets that aligns with some outside type of catalyst event. It could be that foreign central banks issue some news or warning at that time or it could be that Asia/China issue some type of catalyst to the event. We don’t know what the catalyst will be but we can guess that it will be related to geopolitics or the global economy/credit/debt issues. God forbid it to be some type of war or human crisis event – we really don’t need that right now.
Please review these earlier research posts for more information :
July 24, 2019: PART II – BLACK HOLE IN GLOBAL BANKING IS BEING EXPOSED
July 24, 2019: SILVER PRICE TARGET DURING THE NEXT BULL MARKET
July 20, 2019: US & GLOBAL MARKETS SETTING UP FOR A VOLATILITY EXPLOSION – ARE YOU READY?
July 13, 2019: MID-AUGUST IS A CRITICAL TURNING POINT FOR US STOCKS
Our job as research analysts is to highlight what we believe is likely to happen and why we believe it is likely to happen. Therefore, without guessing as to the cause of the event, let’s focus on the “Crazy Ivan” event and how we can attempt to profit from it.
First, let’s take a look at the VIX chart. The VIX basing level (the lowest level the VIX has attained between price spikes) has been increasing as US stock market volatility continues to increase. The nature of the calculations that make up the VIX would suggest this increase in basing levels would happen as extended volatility continues to be present in the markets – so this is expected. What is not expected is the August 19th price inflection point that we believe will drive an unexpected price reversion in the US and global stock markets. We believe this cycle inflection date is key to understanding how the markets will react going into the end of 2019 and beyond.
If our analysis is correct, then we believe a breakdown in the US and global markets will occur on or shortly after August 19, 2019, where the US stock markets are poised for a -15% to -25% price reversion. This downside move in the US stock market would set up an incredible “price anomaly” for skilled technical traders that should provide an incredible opportunity for future profits.
We believe the ultimate downside potential for this move may last all the way through the end of 2019 and into early 2020 – although we can’t be certain yet as to the depth and severity of this move using our predictive modeling tools and utilities. All we know is that it is about to happen based on what our predictive modeling tools are telling us and we have continued to try to warn you of this move for the past few months. So here it is – the Crazy Ivan (as we’re calling it).
Any VIX rally that pushes the price above 30 or 40 would have to be rather severe compared to previous rotations. The spikes on this chart related as follows on the NQ chart :
Early May VIX Spike to 23.31 resulted in a -938.25 point move (-11.91%) in the NQ
The current August VIX spike to 24.80 resulted in a -848.75 point move (-10.54%) in the NQ.
What would a move to above 32 in the VIX look like on the NQ chart? How about a move to above 42 on the VIX? Hello Crazy Ivan.
This next chart of the NQ on a monthly basis highlights our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system at work. This utility helps us to understand where the price will want to target in the future and also helps us to understand trend and outlying price trends (or price anomalies). Price anomalies happen when price moves substantially away from where the ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting price wants to be at. Thus, if the price of the NQ were to fall below $5500 very quickly (think Crazy Ivan) and our ADL modeling tool suggests that price really wants to be at $6800 at that time, then we have a $3300 price anomaly setting up. This is a type of reactive price anomaly that suggests price is way off target and will attempt to revert to levels closer to the ADL predictive price levels.
We believe the Crazy Ivan event could push the price of the NQ much lower than our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting and create a price anomaly that may become one of the most profitable trades near the end of 2019.
You can see from this ADL predictive modeling chart that price is expected to be lower near the end of 2019, but steadily climb higher into early 2020. If price were to end up below 6400 by the end of 2019, that would set up a 1000+ point price anomaly setup that could become an incredible upside price move in early 2020. Time will tell as this Crazy Ivan event plays out.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
In the second part of this article, we’ll study the Crazy Ivan event in the metals and show you what we believe will happen to both Gold and Silver as this event plays out. You won’t want to miss this one.
WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500
In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.
I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.
On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.
More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/110.png470850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-10 00:10:492019-08-10 00:10:49Metals and VIX Are About To Pull A “Crazy Ivan” – Part I
