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Fed May Trigger Wild Swing In Index and Metals

As our research team continues to pour over the charts and look for any signs of direction regarding tomorrow’s Fed news, we put together a couple the charts that may highlight some expectations and in at what the markets may do the rest of the week.

The expectations that the US Federal Reserve may maintain rates at current levels or potentially drop rates by a quarter percent leaves an open interpretation as to how the global markets will digest this news. Obviously, leaving rates unchanged would be the most benign action the Fed could take. Often though, the markets interpret this as a sign of weakness. Whereas a quarter percent decrease in the US fed rates would suggest that the Fed is preparing for future economic weakness in the US and potential global economy, yet investors may consider this as a very bullish reaction to the Fed.

Our belief is that the Fed will leave rates unchanged and possibly hint at adjusting rates lower later this year or early next year in preparation for the US presidential elections. The US economy is still moderately strong and the recent trade deal with Mexico as well as policy advancement in DC leads us to believe the Fed has no reason to adjust rates right now. Of course, a quarter percent decrease would allow the Fed to spur additional economic growth and potentially jump-start the waning housing market in the US.

This first chart of the YM, the Dow E-mini futures, highlights key price technical support and resistance that will likely come into play over the next 3 to 10 weeks. We ask you to pay special attention to the dual resistance levels above 26,500. These double resistance levels act as a double ceiling in regards to price advancement.  In other words, some type of strong price advance of 27,000 would have to take place in order for the price to move beyond these resistance areas.

Should the Fed surprised the market and the market interpreted this move as strongly bullish, there is a moderate chance that the YM could advance beyond 27,000 before the end of this week or early next week.  We believe the Fed news tomorrow will be interpreted as a protectionist stance and the market made move lower from current highs.  Any big rotation lower after the Fed announcement tomorrow could prompt a new downside trend to retest our pennant/flag formation base near 25,000. Either way, our automated technical analysis prediction software will keep or get on the right side of the market.

Additionally, after the Fed announcement tomorrow, it is very likely that the US dollar may, under some pricing pressure and that precious metals could rocket hire and continue their advance towards $1450.  Any market reaction to the downside in the US stock market and/or the US dollar would likely push precious metals well above recent highs.  It all depends on how the market reacts to the US Fed announcement tomorrow, June 19.

We believe we have positioned our gold trades appropriately for the Fed news tomorrow.  Either way, we believe gold, precious metals, and the miners will advance after the Fed news tomorrow.  A close above $1375 in gold will prompt a very quick rallied towards $1440.

We’ll continue to watch how the markets react to the Fed news tomorrow with the knowledge that precious metals and gold should advance either way as fear and greed drive the metals higher.  We’ll look for new trades near the end of next week after the Fed news shakes out the short term traders. There is nothing wrong with being on the right side of a profitable trade in precious metals and miners.

If you want to trade profitably with us and fellow traders from in 87 other countries be sure to join our Wealth Building Newsletters Today!

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Technical Trader Launches New Active Trading Dashboard and Tools for Index Trading Signals

Collingwood, Jun 17, 2019 (Issuewire.com)  – The Technical Traders Ltd has announced the release of their revised intuitive Trading Application for all current members. This new trading application represents an increased ability to better serve our client and members as well as improved levels of service, information, and automation. The Technical Traders Ltd plans to continue expanding this application to include proprietary trading models, alert services, market updates, and much more in the future.

The newly released Trading Application is a revision to the Phase-1 development process started in January 2019. Phase-1 of this platform provides a live updating portfolio, charting, and instant SMS and email trader alerts for Buy Triggers, Price Targets, and Stop Loss. These automated features allow all of our members to visit the application to review and monitor all portfolio updates while the application runs the automation/trades on live data.

Future updates to this application, Phase-2, will include a new index trading system and signals, spike alert trades, gap window trades, chatroom, and more. The Technical Traders Ltd expects to release the second phase of this application before November 2019

“Once this new application is fully released in the next couple months this trading newsletter and its tools will make it one the best trading tools available for active traders no matter if you are a day trader, swing trader, or long term investor, you can trade and follow the markets with ease”, said Chris Vermeulen. He also stated, “This is his life’s work all coming together to create a traders dashboard that he has always dreamed of”.

Brad Matheny stated, “My objective is to continue to deliver the best research and tools we can make available to our members. This trading application is a remarkable leap forward for The Technical Traders Ltd. It allows us to focus on our research, tools, and development of incredible new utilities and proprietary solutions for its users vs. attempting to manually manage the same data the application can handle in an automated process”. He added, “The potential for what we can create as real value, proprietary insight and profitable opportunities for our members is limitless at this point – all it takes is for us to continue what we have been doing for years with our new focus of delivering these value solutions through our specialized trading application dashboard”.

The Technical Traders Ltd expects to continue releasing a series up updates and improvement, with the inclusion of new trading systems, services, and alerts, over the next 6+ months before attempting to move the application into Phase-3 development which will be another game-changer for traders, and investors around the world.

Website : https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/

Investors are confident, bullish and buying stocks, but…

The Technical Traders Ltd has identified a unique price to volatility relationship between the SP500 and VIX index.  The calculations required to compute the VIX index are composed of a number of factors. That final value of the VIX index is reported on an annualized basis. This means that VIX index as already internalized the past 12 months price volatility into the current VIX levels.

We believe this increased VIX volatility expectation could be muting future VIX spikes and trading systems focus on the VIX Index.  The fact that the VIX as likely to internalized that large October to December 2018 price rotation and will not move beyond this price range until well after April or May of 2020 creates a unique problem for VIX systems and analysts. In short, the VIX has normalized a 20% price volatility expectation, or more, and will not reduce this expectation until well after April or May of 2020.

Taking a look at this weekly VIX chart clearly highlights the large 472% increase in January and February 2018.  The reason why the VIX increased by this incredible amount is that the prior 12 months price volatility was extremely muted.  The price rotation in the SPX was -343, for a total of -12%. The second VIX Spike between October and December of 2018 resulted in a 227% increase while price rotated more than 600 points, -20.61%, in the SPX. Obviously, the larger price movement in October through December 2018 would have likely resulted in a large VIX move if prior volatility expectations had remained the same.

It is our belief that the January to February 2018 price volatility rotation increase the VIX volatility expectations by at least 30 to 40%. The second, much larger, price rotation during October to December 2018 pushed the VIX volatility expectations higher by at least 10 to 15%. Our researchers believe the normalized VIX levels representing current price volatility are likely to stay above 12 or 13 until well after November or December 2019 if price volatility and expectations stay rather muted. Any additional large price rotations, to the downside, will likely continue to normalize or internalize increased VIX level volatility expectations.

This SPX chart helps to compare the relative VIX price increases in relation to the true SPX price volatility. We’ve also drawn a 12-month price window, as a red box on this chart, to highlight how the VIX attempts to normalize the past 12 months volatility going forward. It is our belief that a move above 500 to 600 points in the SPX may only prompt a rally in the VIX to near 28 to 30. Whereas, the same price swing from October to December 2018 prompted a VIX move to about 36. We would need to see the SPX move at least 900 points before the VIX will spike above 25 again.  Remember after January or February of 2020 the VIX may begin to contract again as price volatility stays muted for the rest of this year.

We currently believe a large price rotation may be set up for near the end of 2019. Our proprietary cycle modeling systems and extended research are suggesting this downside move may begin sometime near August or September of 2019. Remember, this new VIX research suggests that any large price downswing may result in a very moderate VIX price increase at first. In other words, things could get very interesting towards the end of 2019 for traders.

Please take a minute to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com and see how we have been navigating, trading and profiting from the market over the past 17 months, I think you will be pleasantly surprised. Our research team believes the US stock market will likely form an extended pennant formation over the next 60+ days.  Now is the time for us to plan and prepare for what may become a very volatile second half of 2019 and early 2020.

Become A Technical Trader Today Using
Our Trade and Investing Signals
CLICK HERE

Chris Vermeulen

Index Prediction System Is Telling Us A Very Different Story

On this day, celebrating fathers and all they do for families and their children, we thought we would share some really interesting research regarding the next six months trading expectations in the NASDAQ and what it means for your trading account.  One element of our research involves data mining and searching for historical price correlation models.  These types of elements help us identify when the price is acting normally or abnormally.

We like to focus on the NQ (NASDAQ) because its tech-heavy and is where a lot of the Capital Shift (money from other countries is flowing into as a safe/best asset class at this time).

Below, We are going to Geek-Out a little and sharing raw data values from one of our data mining utilities highlighting each month’s historical activity in the NQ.

Pay close attention to the “Total Monthly Sum” and the monthly NEG (negative) and POS (positive) values.  These values show the range of price activity over the past 20 years normalized for each month. Obviously, we can’t expect the markets to adhere to these normalized values, but we can gain insight from the data retrieved by this data mining tool.

To help you understand this data we’ll focus some brief analysis on the month of June, below. June has a total monthly NEG value of -1009 and a total monthly POS value of 1410.  Additionally, the NEG value is comprised of 9 months of data and the POS value is composed of 11 months of data.  Therefore, the relationship between NEG and POS months is roughly 1:1 – or about equal. Overall, the positive months outweigh the negative months by 401 points. The largest monthly positive and negative values are 492 and -189. This suggests the positive price aspect of these mined data points is about 2.3:1 respectively.

The conclusion we derive from this date is that June is moderately more positive based on historical price data then negative.  This data is derived from the NQ. Therefore the expectations of a positive 300 to 400 point move in the NQ for June would be in line with historical expectations.  Anything beyond that range should be considered a price anomaly. These types of price anomalies to happen fairly often but are difficult to predict.

As of today, the NQ has already moved upward by over 400 points since the end of May. This price advance equaling our expected data range would suggest that the upward price move in the NQ may be very close to ending.

=====[ June Monthly Analysis ]========================

– Largest Monthly POS : 492 NEG -189.25
– Total Monthly NEG : -1009 across 9 bars – Avg = -112.11
– Total Monthly POS : 1410 across 11 bars – Avg = 128.18
——————————————–
– Total Monthly Sum : 401 across 20 bars

Analysis for the month = 6
===================================================

As you scan through the rest of these data mining results, pay very close attention to the largest monthly ranges as well as the overall price bias described by the total monthly NEG and POS values.  For example, in July the monthly values are more narrow in range. Yet the total monthly NEG and POS values depict a broader range for price.

Additionally, the POS bars (13) compared to the NEG bars (6) describes a vastly different historical price relevance.  The possibility of an upside price bias in July is much stronger than what we determined four June.  The 13:6 ratio of upside to downside price bars in July converts into a nearly 2:1 upside price expectation versus a 1:1 ratio in June.  Because of this, we can determine that July will likely result in a positive upside price move of at least 150 to 250 points in the NQ before exhausting.

=====[ July Monthly Analysis ]========================

– Largest Monthly POS : 319.75 NEG -200
– Total Monthly NEG : -656 across 6 bars – Avg = -109.33
– Total Monthly POS : 1654 across 13 bars – Avg = 127.23
——————————————–
– Total Monthly Sum : 998 across 19 bars

Analysis for the month = 7
===================================================

Our data mining tool suggests that August may be much more volatile than July. The larger monthly total sum suggests a possible breakout move to the upside. The increases in total monthly values suggest volatility will also increase. Overall the combined July and August data points suggest rotation may end with a big move to the upside sometime in late August before a correction.

=====[ August Monthly Analysis ]========================

– Largest Monthly POS : 477 NEG -313.25
– Total Monthly NEG : -835.5 across 8 bars – Avg = -104.44
– Total Monthly POS : 1702.5 across 12 bars – Avg = 141.88
——————————————–
– Total Monthly Sum : 867 across 20 bars

Analysis for the month = 8
===================================================

September data points show an immediate reversal to the upside price bias. The data reporting from our data mining tool flips to the negative side fairly strong. Overall expectations are roughly 1:1 that a downside price move will dominate for September.

Our data mining utility suggests a downside price move of between -450 and -550 points.  If you’ve been following our research, you already know that we are predicting a moderately large downside reversal beginning in late August or September. It is our belief that the US stock markets will rotate downwards after a peak in price in August. We believe this downside move could last well into November, much like the downside move in 2018.

=====[ September Monthly Analysis ]========================

– Largest Monthly POS : 229 NEG -473
– Total Monthly NEG : -1460.25 across 10 bars – Avg = -146.03
– Total Monthly POS : 903.5 across 10 bars – Avg = 90.35
——————————————–
– Total Monthly Sum : -556.75 across 20 bars

Analysis for the month = 9
===================================================

Should our expectations play out in the market, the downside price move in September, October and possibly November, would result in a unique price anomaly setup near this price bottom.

As you can see from the data mining results, below, the last quarter (3 months) of the year typically results in upside price bias. Therefore, any deep downside price move after our expected peak in August will set up a very unique price anomaly pattern where skilled traders should be able to capture an incredible upside price run near the end of 2019.

=====[ October Monthly Analysis ]========================

– Largest Monthly POS : 480.25 NEG -679.75
– Total Monthly NEG : -1564.5 across 7 bars – Avg = -223.50
– Total Monthly POS : 2320.25 across 13 bars – Avg = 178.48
——————————————–
– Total Monthly Sum : 755.75 across 20 bars

Analysis for the month = 10
===================================================

=====[ November Monthly Analysis ]========================

– Largest Monthly POS : 316.5 NEG -768
– Total Monthly NEG : -1169 across 6 bars – Avg = -194.83
– Total Monthly POS : 1509 across 14 bars – Avg = 107.79
——————————————–
– Total Monthly Sum : 340 across 20 bars

Analysis for the month = 11
===================================================

Pay very close attention to the fact that December can be fairly mixed in terms of overall price bias and upside or downside price expectation.  With a 1:1 (equal price weighting) for both positive and negative price results and a monthly sum of only about 100 points, we would expect December to be moderately congested and flat.

=====[ December Monthly Analysis ]========================

– Largest Monthly POS : 782 NEG -616.25
– Total Monthly NEG : -1179.5 across 10 bars – Avg = -117.95
– Total Monthly POS : 1291.5 across 10 bars – Avg = 129.15
——————————————–
– Total Monthly Sum : 112 across 20 bars

Analysis for the month = 12
===================================================

And there you have it, our Father’s Day gift to all of you. These results from our proprietary data mining utility are providing you with a detailed map of what to expect in the NQ going forward through December 2019. This is only one aspect of our research team’s resources and unique capabilities that assist us in understanding what price will be doing in the future. There are many other utilities and trading indicator tools that we use to help confirm and validate our analysis.

We’ve included a chart of the S&P E-mini futures contract with a yellow line drawn across our predicted price modeling expectations starting from the end of 2017 until now. Pay very close attention to our expected price levels and the market price levels as time progressed forward. As you become more skilled in understanding how this data can be used to benefit your trading and deliver results, you’ll learn why our research team relies on our proprietary modeling tools and software so heavily.

We thought we might share a bit of specialized data with you on this Father’s Day so that you could use some of our proprietary information in your own research and analysis going forward.

Please remember, price action dictates everything. Even though we can model and data mine incredible information months or years into the future, everything comes down to what price is doing right now. If it confirms our analysis, then fantastic – our research may be right on the money.  If the price moves beyond our expectations and research, then we have to reevaluate our expectations in correlation with the data that we have to determine if we need to adjust our expectations going forward.

My point is, yes we can forecast, yes we have been correctly more times than not, but you cannot just go out and place trades based on this analysis alone because our analysis will change with the market.

To be blatantly honest, we don’t really care what the market does or when. We FOLLOW the market and trade on its coat tales, we don’t jump in front of it and guess/hope it will reverse as we are predicting.

Some of our articles/forecasts we share simply don’t happen and we get lots of flack from free followers of these articles. But what most followers fail to understand is that even when our predictions are DEAD WRONG, we and our subscribers make money in most cases. Again, we don’t trade the forecasts we just let them help guide us, and we trade with the dominant trend.

We have a good pulse on the major markets and can profit during times when most others can’t which is why you should join my Wealth Trading Newsletter for index, metals, and energy trade alerts.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these super cycles are going to last years. These super cycles starting to take place will go into 2020 and beyond which we lay out in our new PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

I am going to give away and ship out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans listed below, and you will receive:

1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)

2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND
GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!
Free Shipping!

Happy Fathers Day Guys!

Chris Vermeulen
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

How Chinese Trade Issues Will Drive Market Trends

It is becoming evident that the US/Chinese trade issues are going to become a point of contention for the markets going forward.  We’ve been review as much news as possible in an attempt to build a consensus for the future of the US markets and global markets.  As of last week, it appears any potential trade deal with China has reset back to square one.  The news we are reading suggests that China wants to reset their commitments with the US, remove all tariffs and wants the US to commit to buying certain levels of Chinese goods in the future.  Additionally, China has yet to commit to stopping the IP/Technology theft from US companies – which is a very big contention for the US.

This suggests the past 6+ months of trade talks have completely broken down and that this trade issue will likely become a market driver over the next 12+ months.  The global markets had anticipated a deal to be reached by the end of March 2019.  At that time, Trump announced that he was extending talks with China without installing any new tariffs.  The intent was to show commitment with China to reach a deal at that time – quickly.

It appears that China had different plans – the intention to delay and ignore US requests.  It is very likely that China has worked to secure some type of “plan B” type of scenario over the past 6+ months and they may feel they are negotiating from a position of power at this time.  Our assumption is that both the US and China feel their interests are best served by holding their cards close to their chests while pushing the other side to breakdown through prolonged negotiations.

Our observations are that an economic shift is continuing to take place throughout the globe that may see these US/China trade issues become the forefront issue over the next 12 to 24 months – possibly lasting well past the November 2020 US Presidential election cycle.  It seems obvious that China is digging in for a prolonged negotiation process while attempting to hold off another round of tariffs from the US.  Additionally, China is dealing with an internal process of trying to shift away from “shadow banking” to eliminate the risks associated with unreported corporate and private debt issues.

The limited, yet still valid, resources we have from within China are suggesting that layoffs are very common right now and that companies are not hiring as they were just a few months ago. One of our friends/sources suggested the company he worked for has been laying off employees for over 30 days now and he just found out he was laid-off last week.  He works in the financial field.

We believe the long term complications resulting from a prolonged US/China trade war may create a foundational shift within the global markets over the next 16 to 24+ months headed into the November 2020 US Elections.  We’ve already authored articles about how the prior 24 months headed into major US elections tend to be filled with price rotation while an initial downside price move is common within about 16+ months of a major US election event.  This year may turn out to prompt an even bigger price rotation.

US Stock Market volatility just spiked to levels well above 20 – levels not seen since October/November 2018, when the markets fell nearly 20% before the end of 2018.  The potential for increased price volatility over the next 12+ months seems rather high with all of the foreign positioning and expectations that are milling around.  It seems like the next 16+ months could be filled with incredibly high volatility, price rotation and opportunity for skilled traders.

Our primary concern is that the continued trade war between the US and China spills over into other global markets as a constricted price range based trading environment.  Most of the rest of the world is still trying to spark some increased levels of economic growth after the 2008-09 market crisis.  The current market environment does not settle well for investor confidence, growth, and future success.  The combination of a highly contested US Presidential election, US/China trade issues, a struggling general foreign market, currency fluctuations attempting to mitigate capital risks and other issues, it seems the global stock markets are poised for a very big increase in volatility and price rotation over the next 2 years or so.

Our first focus is on the Hang Seng Index.  This Weekly chart shows just how dramatic the current price rotation has been over the past few weeks and how a defined price channel could be setting up in the HSI to prompt a much larger downside objective.  Should continue trade issues persist and should China, through the course of negotiating with the US, expose any element of risk perceived by the rest of the world, the potential for further price contraction is very real.  China is walking a very fine line right now as Trump is pushing issues (trade issues and IP/Technology issues) to the forefront of the trade negotiations.  In our opinion, the very last thing China wants is their dirty laundry, shady deals and political leadership strewn across the global news cycles over the next 24+ months.

 

The DAX Weekly Index is showing a similar price pattern.  A very clear upper price trend channel which translates into a very clear downside price objective is price continues lower.  Although the DAX is not related directly to the US/China trade negotiations, the global markets are far more interconnected now than ever before.  Any rotation lower in China will likely result in a moderate price decrease in many of the major global market indexes.

 

As we’ve suggested within our earlier research posts, US election cycles tend to prompt massive price rotations when the election cycles are intense. In our next post PART II of this report, we talk about what happened in the past election cycles reviewing the monthly charts and weekly SP500 index charts which are very telling in what could be about to happen next for the stock market from an investors standpoint.

For active swing traders, you are going to love our daily trading analysis. On May 1st we talked about the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” and that is excactly what is happening now right on queue. In fact, we closed out our SDS position on Thursday for a quick 3.9% profit and our other new trade started Thursday is up 18% already.

Second, my birthday is only three days away and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.

Right now I am going to give away and shipping out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. I only have 7 left as they are going fast so be sure to upgrade your membership to a longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans, and you will receive:

1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)

2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)

I only have 13 more silver rounds I’m giving away
so upgrade or join now before its too late!

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!

Happy May Everyone!

Chris Vermeulen

 

 

Stay tuned for PART II next!

 

Index Trading Signals for Momentum, Swing, and Trend Following

Since 2001 I have been refining my index trading skills and strategies in the hope that one day I would provide a steady stream of trades and income and possibly even be able to automate the trading for me.

Now, 18 years later I have made most of these dreams/goals come true with a robust trading system that makes trading momentum drops and pops, swing trading, and trend following really simple. While it’s not 100% complete, and likely never will be as I’m always working on adapting things work with the everchanging markets, it is something I’m really proud of and excited to share with fellow traders. Over the next month or so I will be pushing to get this new application running for members to watch and receive the trade alerts.

Take a look at this year’s chart of the system which really is incredible, but the rally the market is experiencing is also not the norm in terms of price action.

 

The next chart shows the most recent trade taken this Thursday and the first momentum trade target was hit in less than 24 hours for a quick 2.5% profit on the SP500.

 

To make things even more exciting this strategy works well with high momentum stocks and the most recent trade we took on CPRX we locked in 10% from our entry price as shown below.

 

I am about to launch a new technology product to assist our members like this one explained above, where we can highlight our proprietary price modeling systems complete with all the trade signals (entry, stops, targets). This added analysis and trade signals are bonus value added for our loyal followers.

If you want to stay ahead of these markets moves and find greater success in 2019 and beyond, then Join www.TheTechnicalTraders.com today.

 

EXTRA UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY

First, we typically see stocks sell-off and as the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!”

So what does this mean? It means we should start to see money flow into the safe-haven assets like the Utility sector, bonds, and most importantly precious metals.

Second, my birthday is this month, and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.

For May I am going to give away and ship out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter for the first 25 subscribers. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans, and you will receive:

1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)

2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)

I only have 25 silver rounds I’m giving away
so upgrade or join now before its too late!

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!

Happy May Everyone!

Chris Vermeulen

How Close Are The Markets From Topping?

Now that most of the US Major Indexes have breached new all-time price highs, which we called over 5+ months ago, and many traders are starting to become concerned about how and where the markets may find resistance or begin to top, we are going to try to paint a very clear picture of the upside potential for the markets and why we believe volatility and price rotation may become a very big concern over the next few months.  Our objective is to try to help you stay informed of pending market rotation and to alert you that we may be nearing a period within the US markets where increased volatility is very likely.

Longer term, many years into the future, our predictive modeling systems are suggesting this upside price swing is far from over.  Our models suggest that price rotation will become a major factor over the next 12 to 15+ months – headed into the US Presidential election cycle of November 2020.  Our models are suggesting that the second half of this year could present an incredible opportunity for skilled investors as price volatility/rotation provide bigger price swings.  Additionally, our models suggest that early 2020 will provide even more opportunity for skilled traders who are able to understand the true price structure of the markets.  Get ready, thing are about to get really interesting and if you are not following our research or a member of our services, you might want to think about joining soon.

We are focusing this research post on the NQ, ES and YM futures charts (Daily).  We will include a longer-term YM chart near the end to highlight longer-term expectations.  Let’s start with the NQ Daily chart.

The NQ Daily chart, below, highlights our ongoing research, shows the 2018 deep price rotational low and the incredible rally to new all-time highs recently.  The most important aspect of this chart is the “Upside Target Zone” near the $8040 level and the fact that any rally to near these levels would represent an extended upside price rally near the upper range of the YELLOW price channel lines.  We believe any immediate price rotation may end near the $7500 level (between the two Fibonacci Target levels near $7400 & $7600) and could represent a pretty big increase in price volatility.

 

This ES Daily chart highlights the different in capabilities between the NQ and the ES.  While the NQ is already pushing into fairly stronger new price highs, the ES is struggling to get above the Sept/Oct 2018 highs and this is because very strong resistance is found between $2,872 and $2,928.  It is very likely that the price volatility will increase near these highs as price becomes more active in an attempt to break through this resistance.  It is also very likely that a downside price rotation may happen where price attempts to retest the $2,835 level (or lower) before finally pushing into a bigger upside price trend.  The Upside Target Zone highs are just below $3,000.  Therefore, we believe any move above $2,960 could represent an exhaustion top type of price formation.

 

This YM chart is set up very similarly to the ES chart.  Historical price highs are acting as a very strong price ceiling.  While the NQ is already pushing into fairly stronger new price highs, the YM continues to struggle to get above the Sept/Oct 2018 highs and this is because very strong resistance is found between 25,750 and 27,000.  Please take notice of the very narrow resistance channel (BOX) on this chart that highlights where we believe true price support/resistance is located.  We believe it is likely that a downside price rotation may happen where price attempts to retest the $26,000 level (or lower) before finally pushing into a bigger upside price trend.

 

As you can tell from our recent posts and this research, we believe price volatility is about to skyrocket higher as price rotates downward.  Our predictive modeling systems are suggesting that we are nearing the end of this current upside move where a downward price move will establish a new price base and allow price to, eventually, push much higher – well above current all-time high levels.

We’ve issued research posts regarding Presidential election cycles and how, generally, stock market prices decline 6 to 24 months before any US Presidential election.  We believe this pattern will continue this year and we are warning our followers to be prepared at this stage of the game.  No, it will not be a massive market crash like 2008-09.  It will be a downside price rotation that will present incredible opportunities for skilled traders.  If you want more of our specialized insight and analysis, then please visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we help our members find success.

Lastly, we’ve included this Weekly YM chart to show you just how volatile the markets are right now.  Pay very close attention to the Fibonacci Target Levels that are being drawn on this chart.  The downside target levels range from $16,000 to $21,060.  The upside target levels range from $30,000 to $32,435.  Top to bottom, The Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting a total volatility range of over $16,000 for the YM Weekly chart and this usually suggests we are about to enter a period of bigger price rotation and much higher price volatility.

 

Right now, we suggest that you review some of our most recent posts to see how we’ve been calling these market moves, visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com/FreeResearch/.  It is important for all of our followers to understand the risks of being complacent right now.  The markets are about to enter a period of about 24+ months where incredible opportunities will become evident for skilled traders. If you know what is going to happen, you can find opportunities everywhere.  If not, you are going to be on the wrong side of some very big moves.

Chris Vermeulen

Why Are The Markets Ignoring The Treasury Inversion?

Our research continues to support a Bullish price bias over the next 30+ days, very likely reaching to new all-time highs again, before June/July 2019.  For many months, other researchers have continued to predict “doom and gloom” with warnings of Treasury yield inversions, global collapse events, and other crisis events.  Yes, we believe continued price rotation will drive future price swings and they could be volatile moves – yet we believe any crisis event will actually become an incredible opportunity for long traders to BUY into the markets at extreme lows.

Recently, our researchers focused on OIL and the Transportation Index as key elements suggesting this upside move is far from over.  Oil has moved from below $55 ppb to well above $60 ppb.  We believe this move will continue higher to target the $64 ppb level were resistance is likely to be found.  We do believe that some price rotation in Oil is likely to happen in the Summer months – when travel increases and Summer blend gas hits the markets.  Winter has been uniquely difficult this year and the rise in Oil prices, where OPEC and foreign market events have attempted to push prices above $50 ppb, is warranted given global economic activities.

 

While Oil continues to climb, the Transportation Index is also rallying above recent resistance near $10,500 and pushing higher targeting the $11,250 level.  This is important because the Transportation Index typically leads the US economy by about 3~6 months and is a key indicator of investors future expectations for the US and global economy.  Any push above $11,000 in the Transportation Index would likely mean we are going to attempt to reach all-time highs near $11,634.  A move like this would likely push the US Stock Market Indexes well above recent all-time highs as well.

 

Much of our recent analysis has been an attempt to relate the opportunity that exists over the next 30~60 days in the US Stock Market.  For well over 12 months, we’ve been suggesting a capital shift is taking place where the US stock market, and the US Dollar, are uniquely positioned to become safe-haven investments for foreign investors.  We believe this process is still taking place and we believe the US market could continue to push up to new all-time highs before another rotational move sets up.  Our most recent research suggests a peak may form near June/July 2019 that should concern traders.  Until then, we believe the upside price bias will continue and we still believe new all-time highs are about to be reached.

As of today, we have technical confirmation that a renewed upside price move is taking place and we continue to watch the precious metals for any signs of a base/momentum bottom.  Follow our research and learn how we can help you find and execute better trades.

Take a minute to find out why Technical Traders Ltd. is quickly becoming one of the best research and trading services you can find anywhere.  We are about to launch a new technology product to assist our members and we continue to deliver incredible research posts, like this one, where we can highlight our proprietary price modeling systems and adaptive learning solutions.  If you want to stay ahead of these markets moves and find greater success in 2019 and beyond, then please take a minute to see how we can help you.  Once this June/July peak begins, you won’t want to miss the next big move…  Join www.TheTechnicalTraders.com today.

Chris Vermeulen