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Our Long-Anticipated Gold Momentum Rally Begins

Over the past 6+ months, we’ve been covering the price rotations in precious metals very closely.  We’ve issued a number of amazing calls regarding Gold and Silver over the past few months.  Two of the biggest calls we’ve made were the late 2018 research post that suggested Gold would rally to above $1300, then stall.  The other amazing call was our research team’s suggestion that April 21~24 would see Gold setup an Ultimate Base, or what we were calling a “Momentum Base”, near $1250 to $1275.

We issued both of these markets calls many months in advance of these dates/price levels targeting these moves.  In both cases, we issued these market calls well over 60 days prior to the move actually taking place.  The accuracy of these calls can be attributed to our proprietary price modeling solutions as well as the skill and techniques of our research team.  Don’t mind us while we take a few seconds to take credit for some truly amazing precious metals calls over the past 6+ months.

This Weekly Gold chart highlights just about everything we have been suggesting would happen over the past 12+ months.  The rally in Gold from below $1200 to almost $1350 setup an upside price leg that we believe is still just beginning.  The rotation lower, after the February 2019 highs, setup the Momentum Base near April 24 – RIGHT ON TARGET.  Now, the upside price advance that we’ve been predicting should launch Gold well above the $1400 price level appears to be setting up.

Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning price modeling system, as well as our Adaptive Fibonacci Price modeling system, have been key elements to unlocking these early calls.  You can read more about our earlier Gold and Silver calls by reading this article: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/adl-predictions-for-price-of-gold/

The next leg higher for Gold will see a price peak near $1450 before another brief sideways/stalling pattern sets up.  After that, our research suggests a rally will quickly drive Gold prices above $1550 (or much higher).

 

As we’ve been suggesting, Silver will likely lag behind Gold by about 20+ days.  We believe Silver is going to see an incredible upside price move – even bigger than Gold in percentage terms.  Our belief is that Silver will be trading above $26 to $28 per ounce – almost DOUBLE the recent low price level, when Gold will be trading just above $2000 per ounce.  The reason for this is the relationship between the Gold/Silver/US Dollar pricing levels – called the Gold/Silver Ratio.  The chart is below

When the ratio is above 0.80, we consider this to be a “Moderate Peak” zone for Gold.  Where the price of Gold (per ounce) represents more than 80 ounces of Silver.  The ratio of the price of Gold to the price of Silver is a fairly common measure to determine when Silver is very undervalued compared to Gold.  When the ratio typically falls above 0.80, then the price of Silver is very cheap compared to the price of Gold.  When this ration move above 0.90, these levels are Extreme Peaks in the disparity of pricing between Gold and Silver.  These are the areas where both Gold and Silver rally back to restore a ratio level closer to 0.60 or 0.65 (or lower).

This would indicate that the price of Silver will rally much faster than the price of Gold and in order for this ratio to move back to the 0.06 level, Silver would have to rally at a rate of 1.35:1 or 1.45:1 compared to Gold.

Custom Index – chart by TradingView

 

This Weekly Silver chart highlights the levels we are watching for the upside breakout in Silver to begin – $15.40 or higher and we believe the upside price move in Silver till accelerate well above $18 per ounce very quickly.  Again, the move in Silver will likely lag behind Gold by at least 20+ days.  So now if the time to buy Silver in physical form (or any form) as we prepare for this move.  Once it starts, we can promise you that the rally will be impressive and quick.

 

Watch how Gold and Oil react over the next few weeks as Fear re-enters the global markets.  Our belief is that Oil will fall while Gold initiates the first leg higher, towards $1400 to $1450 before stalling.  Once this happens, we can be certain a new upside price advance is beginning in Gold and this could be a fairly strong indicator that the markets are weakening and there is increased global fear.

This is proving to be an incredible trading year for traders who follow our trade alerts newsletter.

For active swing traders, you are going to love our daily trading analysis. On May 1st we talked about the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” and that is exactly what is happening now right on queue. In fact, we closed out our SDS position on Thursday for a quick 3.9% profit and our other new trade started Thursday is up 18% already.

Second, my birthday is only three days away and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.

Right now I am going to give away and shipping out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. I only have 4 left as they are going fast so be sure to upgrade your membership to a longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans, and you will receive:

1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)

2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)

I only have 4 more silver rounds I’m giving away
so upgrade or join now before its too late!

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!

Happy May Everyone!

Chris Vermeulen

Silver Sets Up A Long-Term Wave B Bottom

Precious Metals traders have been hanging on every turn in the markets over the past 2+ years.  The upside price move in early 2016 setup a very strong expectation that further upside price moves were about to result in an upside price explosion in metals.  Remember, 2016 was a very big US Presidential election year.  2020, being the next big US Presidential election year, is only about 7 months away and the rancor has already started in the news cycles.

Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting that Silver has set up an ABC bottom in Oct/Nov 2018 and has already initiated an A/B upside price leg that should result in a C or C/D/E price advance over the next few months.  Our Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting an upside price target of $22 per ounce for this move, which breaks the previous July 2016 highs of $21.22.  We believe the ultimate upside target of this next bullish move is bear $28 to $29 based on longer-term Fibonacci price modeling.

Initially, this upside move must break the $16.30 level, which represents immediate resistance.  Then, it must push above the $18.66 level, which represents secondary resistance.  Once Silver passes the $18.66 level, the last leg higher will attempt to break the $21.22 level and push up into new recent highs (higher than the 2016 highs).

We believe the current US Presidential election cycle will be full of twists and turns – most of which will be very public and explosive.  We believe this election cycle will create a certain level of fear in the markets that are above and beyond what we have seen over the past 15+ months.  In a method that is very similar to what happened in 2016, the public will become entrenched in the election cycle process and the global economy may suffer slightly as the political shenanigans continue to play out on our TVs, newspapers and web browsers.

The October/December 2018 lows were, most likely, the lowest price levels we will see going forward.  Additionally, the current price levels, below $15 per ounce, may be the last time we’ll have the opportunity to see prices this low in a number of years.  Our price modeling is suggesting that Silver and Gold will begin a Momentum Base Rally from these lows that may last many years.

If you want to know when we get long Silver next be sure to join our Wealth Trading Newsletter and get our trading signals. In fact, we are giving away and shipping FREE Silver rounds for select membership levels for the next few days.

Chris Vermeulen

Index Trading Signals for Momentum, Swing, and Trend Following

Since 2001 I have been refining my index trading skills and strategies in the hope that one day I would provide a steady stream of trades and income and possibly even be able to automate the trading for me.

Now, 18 years later I have made most of these dreams/goals come true with a robust trading system that makes trading momentum drops and pops, swing trading, and trend following really simple. While it’s not 100% complete, and likely never will be as I’m always working on adapting things work with the everchanging markets, it is something I’m really proud of and excited to share with fellow traders. Over the next month or so I will be pushing to get this new application running for members to watch and receive the trade alerts.

Take a look at this year’s chart of the system which really is incredible, but the rally the market is experiencing is also not the norm in terms of price action.

 

The next chart shows the most recent trade taken this Thursday and the first momentum trade target was hit in less than 24 hours for a quick 2.5% profit on the SP500.

 

To make things even more exciting this strategy works well with high momentum stocks and the most recent trade we took on CPRX we locked in 10% from our entry price as shown below.

 

I am about to launch a new technology product to assist our members like this one explained above, where we can highlight our proprietary price modeling systems complete with all the trade signals (entry, stops, targets). This added analysis and trade signals are bonus value added for our loyal followers.

If you want to stay ahead of these markets moves and find greater success in 2019 and beyond, then Join www.TheTechnicalTraders.com today.

 

EXTRA UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY

First, we typically see stocks sell-off and as the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!”

So what does this mean? It means we should start to see money flow into the safe-haven assets like the Utility sector, bonds, and most importantly precious metals.

Second, my birthday is this month, and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.

For May I am going to give away and ship out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter for the first 25 subscribers. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans, and you will receive:

1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)

2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)

I only have 25 silver rounds I’m giving away
so upgrade or join now before its too late!

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!

Happy May Everyone!

Chris Vermeulen

Gold May Give Us One More Chance With New Lows

Our proprietary price cycle tool is showing us that the Daily Gold cycles may dive a bit lower, possibly into the $1250 to $1265 level, over the next 3~7+ days before reaching an ultimate low.  We’ve been covering the precious metals markets like hawks because of our proprietary price modeling tools that suggested the April 21~24 dates as an ultimate low/momentum base pattern.  This new cycle formation highlights the potential that a deeper price low in Gold may set up over the next 5 to 7 days and it may become an incredible buying opportunity for skilled traders.

Taking a look at this cycle chart, we can see the deep price low that may target the $1270 levels or levels just below the $1270 price area.  It appears that this new price low may form somewhere near the end of this week, May 3rd, or early next week, May 6th or 7th.  Please pay attention to this potential price move as this may be the last low price reversal before a very strong upside price move.

 

You may remember our analysis from January 2019 regarding the ADL price predictions for Gold (the chart is below).  Pay very close attention to the “April/May 2019” dates as we are targeting that low price level right now and the upside price potential showing predicted price levels well above $1400.

Skilled traders need to try to understand a move like this in Gold will likely be predicated on some external global news events that create a level of fear in the markets.  We don’t know what they may be at the moment, but our suspicions are that they are going to be related to the EU and/or China (or both).

This is it.  This should be the last low price rotation (if it happens) before Gold begins to skyrocket higher.  Pay attention and remember we were very early in making this call – so it will be an incredible run if it happens as we predicted 5 months ago.

With a total of 55 years of technical analysis and trading between Brad Matheny, and myself Chris Vermeulen, our research and trading signals makes analyzing the complex and ever-changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and Trading Courses are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.

Chris Vermeulen

Markets Are Setting Up A Shake-Out – Be Prepared

Now that the April 21 ~ 24 Gold “momentum base” prediction that we’ve been discussing for the past 4+ months has past and appears to be accurate, we think it is time to start warning of increased market volatility and the potential for a market “shake-out” to happen.  Last week was a key component to our future price predictions and market projections.  We believed our proprietary price modeling systems were accurate and had latched onto a key component of the markets – the “momentum base” call in Gold for April 21 ~ 24 of this year.  Remember, this original research post was made in September 2018 – over 7 months ago.  We kept refining our research over the past 4+ months and warned, repeatedly, that this base in Gold would likely prompt a market shake-out over the next 30~60+ days.

The moves in the major markets, over the past few weeks, have been very telling.  With the SPY and NASDAQ pushing to new all-time highs, strong earnings (overall) and the global markets setting up for another shoe to drop (at some point in the future), it leaves many questions for skilled traders.  What’s going to happen next and what should we expect from price?

Well, we have a few simple answers for you regarding the next few weeks expectations as well as some bigger future predictions.

First, Crude Oil rotated dramatically lower on Friday.  This was a big downward price rotation considering the Trump/Iran deal stance early on in the week.  A disruption in the supply of Oil is often a driver of bigger market swings.  I learned a long time ago to watch Gold and Oil all the time.  These are often the leading commodities that reflect fear/greed in the markets and potential global unrest.

With Crude Oil slipping below a key Fibonacci trigger level (at $65.25) and another key Fibonacci trigger level sitting at $61.60, it seems rather obvious that Oil may slip back below $60 on deeper price rotation over the next few weeks which could lead to a bigger “shake-out” in the markets.  We recently posted an article about how Oil could rotate lower and retest the sub $55 level (https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/oil-may-be-setup-for-a-move-back-50/ ).  At this point, a breakdown of oil prices below the $61.60 level would indicate the very strong potential for further downside price.

 

Precious metals have setup our momentum base/bottom on the dates we predicted over 4+ months ago (April 21 ~24).  It is incredible that our ADL price modeling system can be so accurate so far into the future.  Our proprietary price modeling systems provide us with an incredible advantage over most other research firms.  The ADL and Fibonacci price modeling systems are predicting an upside price advance of at least 12% to 20% over the next few weeks.  Read one of our original research posts here: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/45-days-until-a-multi-year-breakout-for-precious-metals/

The upside price potential in precious metals should not be overlooked.  Additionally, the implication that some other global market malaise could unfold between now and the end of 2019 to drive precious metals prices even higher is fairly strong.  We’ve been warning that Europe, China, and even the US markets could come under some pricing pressure or increased volatility as the US markets establish new price highs.  It makes sense that traders would be preparing for another deep price rotation as prices near previous peak levels.

 

The Transportation Index rotated downward near the end of the week quite hard. Thursday, April 25, saw the Transportation Index fall over -250 pts (over -2.25%) after briefly breaching a key resistance level near $11,050.  As we’ve been suggesting, the Transportation Index typically leads the markets by a few week/months and we follow it as a means of understanding future trends, risks and price rotations.  Right now, the Transportation Index is suggesting increase price rotation and price volatility is likely to “shake-out” the markets for a while.

 

Lastly, the YM (Dow Futures), is setting up in a very narrow price channel below the recent all-time high established in early October 2018 (at $26,966).  This decreased price volatility suggests that the US major indexes are setting up for a price breakout move.  Congesting price channels suggest that price is stuck within a defined price range/channel and the ultimate breakout move will likely be a big breakout move to one side or the other.  We have our suspicion as to which direction the move will likely be and we’ll share it with you now.  Our longer-term analysis suggests that price will continue to push higher while attempting new all-time price highs.  Our expectations that price volatility will increase throughout the rest of 2019 suggest we could see some very big price swings over the next 7+ months.  But for right now, we believe this YM price channel will result in a brief upside price breakout that will push the YM price to new all-time highs (briefly) before retracing to form another extended sideways price channel near $27,000. Stocks, in general, are doing well as all our positions rallied last week with one stock jumping over 11% in one session.

 

Below, we have included a Daily YM chart that highlights this current price channel in MAGENTA.  Pay very close attention to this channel as we near the eventual price breakout that will end this congestion.  Weakness may prompt a “false breakout” to the downside, suckering in shorts, before a continued upside rally pushes prices over the $27,000 market, then stalling to set up the next Pennant/Flag formation.  We’ve seen this type of price action many times in the past.  Any downside “false breakdown” would prompt a big increase in volatility.  This aligns with our broader market analysis.  The push to the upside to establishing new all-time highs also aligns with our broader market analysis.  Thus, we expect a pretty big series of price events to unfold over the next 2~5+ weeks.

 

If you like our research and want to learn how we can help you find and execute great trades, please visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com.  Get ready for the next big moves and learn how our team of skilled researchers and traders can help you stay ahead of these market moves.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

 

Our April 21~24 Gold Call Is Here

One of the most important things about making calls about any future price movement is to have confidence in your research team and systems.  The second most important thing is to make these calls public so everyone can see if you were right or wrong about your predictions.  Predicting the future, often many months in advance, is not an easy task.  We like to ask people, how many people do you know that can predict something in the future, almost to the exact day, and find they were accurate more often than being wrong?

Well, this is the time we’ll see if our predictions are accurate or not.  Back in October 2018, we issued a research post indicating that Gold would rally above $1300, then stall, then set up a momentum base between $1260 and $1275 near mid-April or early May.  Here is a link to that public post: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/45-days-until-a-multi-year-breakout-for-precious-metals/

In February/March 2019, our research team honed in on the April 21~24 dates as a key cycle date for a very likely momentum bottom setup.  You can read our research here.  We believe these dates will be key to the future rally in Gold and they may very well be the last time we see sub-$1300 price levels for a while, but gold does need to reverse to the upside this week.

Currently, Gold is trading at $1278.10 with a recent low at $1273.  Remember our original prediction that the momentum base would likely setup between $1260 and $1275?  Right now, we believe this Momentum base is setting up exactly as we predicted back in October 2018 – over 6 months ago.

As we continue to watch this Momentum Base setup play out, we urge skilled traders to watch the outlying symbols for signs of confirmation and validation.  The news about the Iran Oil Sanctions, today, may become a key element going forward – but it is too early to tell right now.  We believe some global economic event will drive prices of Gold much higher over the next 30+ days.

Gold has moved lower over the past 30+ days from the $1340 level down to near the $1270 level – just as we predicted as well.  The timing of this recent downswing in price is perfect for our April 21~24 Momentum Base call.  We do believe there is still a chance that a $1255 to $1260 level may be seen this week or next.  The Momentum Bottom/Basing formation may form over a 7 to 10+ day range.  So, pay attention to these opportunities in Gold over the next few days and weeks.

NUGT (3x gold miners bull ETF) continues to fall as Gold Bases.  In fact, NUGT has fallen to levels that we have not seen since January 2019.  The reality of the matter is that NUGT may be the best confirmation tool/symbol we have right now for timing the end of our Momentum Base in Gold.  When NUGT rotates higher and forms the base, it will very likely mark the end of weaker prices for the entire precious metals sector and the beginning of the upside price rally we have been predicting.

As our research team likes to state – this is “do or die” time with regards to our predictions from many months ago.  We’ve stuck by them for months, telling anyone who would listen this setup would be the last time you see sub-$1300 levels in Gold for many months – possibly years.  If our analysis is correct, we suggest you pay attention to these symbols and lower Gold price levels right now.  Once this move begins to rally, it could take the markets by surprise.

Our expectations are that by mid-May, or so, we should already be in an upside price swing that should be targeting the $1450 to $1550 level.  This means we have about 7 to 15 trading days until we start to see some real upside price move in precious metals.

We should remind you that gold needs to find a bottom this week and price could become choppy and volatile.

Get ready and follow our research.  How many other research firms do you know that are capable of calling the markets 6+ months in advance with this type of accuracy?

Please visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades for your future.

Chris Vermeulen

Prepare For Unknown Price Action As New Highs Are Reached

The ES and NQ are very close to breaking out to new all-time highs this week and possibly over the next few weeks.  The NQ is very close to these new high levels already.  Traders must not take this move for granted as increased volatility and a very real chance for a price correction become even greater once we break into “new high territory”.

This upside move has taken almost 5 months to climb back from the December 2018 lows.  It has been a very dramatic rally to say the least.  We’ve seen dozens of professional analysts suggest the markets would rotate lower all the way up this rally.  It seems as though everyone wanted to be right that the market top in October 2018 was going to be the start of something big.  We were one of the few analysts that called the market accurately.  Our September 17, 2018 analysis called for almost every leg of this price swing over the past 7+ months.  We stuck by our research while others were skeptical and doubting our research.  We stuck to it because we believe in our work and modeling tools.

Now, our modeling tools are suggesting we could be setting up for a pretty big increase in volatility over the next 2~3 months with the potential for bigger price rotation into May/June 2019.  As we are reading our modeling system results, the key elements are that price will achieve new all-time highs, the price will increase in volatility and Gold should begin an upside price move over the next 2~5+ weeks.  The move in Gold suggests one of two things may happen, or both.  The US Dollar may weaken or the US stock market may correct a bit based on some economic event or outside foreign economic event.

Either way, the move in Gold suggests that increased volatility is almost a sure thing over the next 60 to 90 days.  The only reason Gold would rise is if there is some increased fear factor throughout the planet in regards to the protection of assets and fear of some unknown event.  Therefore, if our analysis is correct and Gold does rise as we have indicated, then something is about to create a big increase in volatility.

The key to all of this is that the ES and NQ will move into NEW HIGH territory before this volatility increase begins to become apparent.

This ES Weekly chart shows just how close the ES (S&P500 Futures) are too new all-time highs.  The ES needs to climb another 41 points (+1.41%) before it touches the previous all-time high levels.  That is really only one of two good upside days.  Once it breaks the 2947 level, then the 3000 psychological level becomes a very real target.

 

This NQ Weekly chart shows that the NQ is really just inches away from breaking to new all-time highs.  The NQ only needs to rally 24.50 points (+0.31%) before the 7731 level is breached.  We believe this move will happen very early this week and we could see the NQ push all the way above the 8000 level in short order.  Our Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting 9130 and 9625 levels may become the ultimate highs – but it is still very early to tell at this stage of our research.

 

Back in July and August 2018, we started warning that the end of 2018 and all of 2019 were going to be very good years for skilled traders.  We’ve seen a nearly 3800+ point price swing in the NQ and a +1200 point price swing in the ES.  Let’s face it, folks, these are very big moves and if you had been capable of trading these moves efficiently, this is the type of price rotation that makes millionaires out of average traders.

Get ready, because the rest of 2019 and almost all of 2020 are going to be just as exciting to trade so be sure to get our trade signals.

We’ll see you on the other side of “new all-time highs” for the US Stock market here soon.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Precious Metals Give Traders Another Opportunity

We know many of you follow our research posts and have been waiting for the Gold/Silver setup we predicted would happen near April 21~24, 2019 back in January 2019.  Well, it looks like our predictions were accurate and the current downward price rotation in Gold/Silver are the opportunities of a lifetime for precious metals traders.

Our original research regarding the predicted Gold price rotation and breakout initially posted in October 2018 and was updated in January 2019.  You can read our updated post here.

This research suggested, back in October 2018, that gold would rally above $1300, then stall and setup a momentum base near April 21~24, 2019.  Currently, we are actively seeking entry positions in Gold, Silver and many other stock market sectors related to the metals and miners.

We’ll start by highlighting the Gold to Silver price ratio.  When this ration moves well above 80, it is generally considered a long term buy trigger.  The reason for this is that this ratio attempt to reflect the price of Silver to the price of Gold.  When this level reaches above 80, it traditionally reflects an extremely cheap price ratio for both Gold and Silver and usually prompts a big price advance in the near future.

 

Taking a look at historical price moves for both Gold and Silver, we fall back to the big upward price advance that began after the 2009 market crash.  One thing that all traders and investors must understand is that, currently, Silver presents an incredible opportunity for bigger returns than Gold.  Yes, Gold will likely rally higher and provide an incredible opportunity for upside gains.  Yet, historically, Silver begins to move a bit later than Gold does and the upside potential of Silver tends to be 40~70% greater than the upside potential for Gold.

Take a look at this comparison chart, below, of the 2009 to 2011 price move.  Gold shot up nearly 100% – as shown on the chart.  Silver shot up over 150% when the breakout move happened a bit after the Gold move started.  We expect the same type of price advance pattern in the near future.  We expect Gold to begin the move higher and Silver to lag behind this upside move a bit – possibly for a few months.  Eventually, Silver will break to new multi-year highs and could rally 130% to 220% above current levels – possibly higher.

 

Over the next few months, we believe increased volatility in the US stock market may drive prices a bit lower as price rotates near all-time highs.  We believe this rotation, coupled with foreign market concerns (think Brexit, Europe, China, South America) as well as the US Election cycle may cause the markets to enter a period of stagnation and sideways trading.  These impulses may become a catalyst for precious metals to break recent highs and begin an upward price advance as a general increase in FEAR settles into the global markets.

We do believe Gold and Silver will likely move a bit higher over the next 30+ days as the US stock markets continue to push higher towards new all-time highs.  Yet, if the volatility increases, as we expect, and a bigger price rotation takes place (see the chart below), we believe Gold and Silver may experience another price drop to near or below current levels before a massive upside breakout move begins.  Historically, the price of Gold contracts throughout the initial price correction phase of the S&P500 and begins to accelerate upward near the end of a correction phase.  This is because investors and traders are typically shocked to see the correction take place and move into a protective mode as true fear sets in.  When fear subsides, traders move out of precious metals and back into stocks.

 

Our current expectations are that Gold will continue to push lower, below $1275, in an attempt to establish our April 21~24 momentum base.  This base should be at or near ultimate lows for the price of Gold and we would expect a pennant or sideways price channel to complete this bottoming formation.  Ideally, any price move below $1250 is a gift for skilled traders.  We’ll just have to wait to see where this bottom sets up before we know just how low Gold will fall before the next leg higher.

We believe the next upside price leg in Gold will push prices above $1400 initially, likely in May or June 2019.  After that peak is reached, we believe a period of rotation and a potential for a price decline is very real.  We believe this next leg higher will really to levels above $1400, then price will stall and retrace – possibly retracing back to levels below $1300 again.  It would be at that point that skilled traders should consider this the last opportunity for long entries before the bigger move to the upside.

 

Our research into this move, which initiated back in October 2018, has called these rotations almost perfectly.  If our newest research is correct, you will have at least two opportunities to enter fantastic long trades in Gold and Silver, one setup hitting between April 21 and April 28 and another setup after the initial upside price rally retraces (likely in June or July 2019).  After that last retracement, we believe the bigger upside rally will begin and both Gold and Silver will initiate a rally that could be an opportunity of a lifetime for skilled traders.

Follow our research by visiting www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades in 2019 and beyond.

Chris Vermeulen

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What’s Next for Stocks, Gold, Silver, Oil & Nat Gas?

December 13, 2009
The past three weeks have been interesting to watch as the Dow (DIA ETF) has broadened causing traders to be shaken in and out of positions. Commodities have been under pressure as the US dollar has risen. Below are some charts of these investments and what I think could happen in the next couple weeks.

DIA – Exchange Traded Fund
As you can see the broadening formation is bearish as it results in a short term pullback. This type of price action is what frustrates breakout and novice traders. As traders jump into positions once the previous high is broken, they hope for a rally. Instead the market briefly moves higher then reverses and moves down to penetrate the previous pivot low. This is where breakout traders place their stops and as the market knows this, it obliges by moving below this level to shake out these traders before it rallies again.

That being said, it looks like stocks could make a new high this week, just enough to suck in more short term breakout traders before rolling over once again to test a deeper support level. A pullback to the $99-100 level would make for a great buy point.

DIA ETF Trade

DIA ETF Trade

GLD – Gold Exchange Traded Fund
The strengthening dollar is putting pressure on precious metals with gold testing the first support level. Depending on what the dollar does in the coming days we could see gold test the second support level.

In my opinion gold can test the second support level without triggering any major sell signals for traders and investors. The trend will still be up and it is important to know the horizontal support level is more important than a trend line support level.

GLD Gold Trend

GLD Gold Trend

SLV – Exchange Traded Fund
Silver is in the same boat at gold. Only time will tell if we get a bounce or a further test lower. Either way, the underlying trend is still up and we will be able trade it.

SLV Silver Trading

SLV Silver Trading

USO – Oil Exchange Traded Fund
Oil broke down out of its bull flag last week and is currently testing both trend line support and horizontal support levels. We could see a short term bounce here to the $37, 38 or 40 levels. Taking money off the table at each resistance level and raising your stop is an important money management strategy I use for this type of play.

This is a high risk type of play which I am not taking part in. But I do find it fun to track plays like this for educational reasons.

How to trade Oil

How to trade Oil

UNG – Natural Gas Exchange Traded Fund
The natural gas fund is a touchy topic with so many traders. I get emails every day asking why I trade UNG because of the contango and the fact that so many people have lost money with it; they don’t want to touch it again. My answer is very simple, it works perfectly fine for short term trading which lasts 1-20 days. “If it works, Don’t Fix It”.
I do agree UNG is tougher than other ETFs to trade, but it still makes money and that is what our goal is.

Anyways natural gas has found some support and is bouncing around. We could see it trend sideways or up until a test of our blue resistance trend line is reached. From there we can asses the situation for a possible trade.

The underlying trend is down on the monthly and weekly charts so do not get too excited about going long anytime soon.

UNg Natural Gas Trade

UNg Natural Gas Trade

ETF Trading Conclusion:
Overall the market feels a little top heavy and the price action on the charts are saying the same thing. My short term indicators are telling me the Dow (DIA fund) is over bought and ready for a couple days of selling. With any luck we will see a test of support which will flush out most short term traders this week, then a nice low volume rally going into Christmas. On the other hand, the market has been holding up well and prices could continue to drift higher from here. If that is the case we simply continue to hold our current long positions and enjoy the ride.

Silver and gold are testing support levels and if the market continues to rally here, I figure precious metals will follow. But if we see stocks pull back and test support, then we will most likely see the metals pull back further also.

Crude oil has formed a scary looking chart as it flushes out traders on this recent drop. My general rule for spec plays is to buy when the chart looks scary, but is trading at multiple support levels. It is very difficult to buy at these levels but as my good buddy David Banister from ActiveTradingPartners.com always says, “Buy when they Cry, Sell when it’s Loud”. Meaning buy when everyone is panicking out of their positions, and sell when everyone is buying into the move usually seen by high volume levels and much higher prices.

Natural Gas is jumping around like crazy. We continue to wait for a tradable price pattern to form in conjunction with a support or resistance level to help put the odds more on our side.

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Chris Vermeulen
www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com