Commodities so far this week have not changed much. But I can point out a few things for us to watch Thursday and Friday.
Precious Metals – Gold GLD fund – Silver SLV Fund – PM Stocks GDX Fund
We could start to see a shift between the price relationship between gold and the broad market. I pointed this out last week mentioning that gold and silver are starting to hold up in value while stocks sell off on big days. For example, Wednesday’s sell-off in equities did not have much effect on precious metals. This is what we want to see. It means money is moving out of stocks and into gold and silver bullion as a safe haven.
These three charts of GLD, SLV and GDX show Wednesday’s price action as gold and silver moved higher while precious metal stocks sold down with the rest of the market. This is generally a bearish indicator for gold and silver but because I am starting to see this happen more often and traders are ready for the market to top any day, I am seeing this as a bullish indicator. If the market starts to slide I have a feeling investors will be dumping a lot more money into gold and silver.
Gold, Silver, Precious Metals Stocks
Energy – Oil USO Fund – Energy Stocks XLE Fund
We are seeing a similar pattern in the energy sector. Oil had a nice move higher today while energy stocks sold off. Stocks are starting to fall out of favor.
Energy Oil Stocks
Natural Gas – UNG Fund
Natural gas is still in a bear market and trading under a major resistance trend line. This commodity could go either way so I am going to wait for the odds to be more on my side before jumping on board with a long or a short trade.
Natural Gas UNG Fund
Mid-Week Gold, Silver, Oil and Nat Gas Conclusion:
The market is starting to look and feel top heavy with many indicators and price action patterns giving cross signals. While the market could continue to rocket higher with new money getting dumped in from average investors because of solid 3rd quarter earnings, we must be cautious by tightening our stops and take some profits off the table. Until we get a short term oversold market condition I am trading very conservatively.
Waiting for a good trade is crucial in trading. If you always want to trade and force positions when the market is choppy you end up with lower probability trades.
We have been waiting for gold to breakout above the 2008 high for almost 2 years. These charts show we are slowly working our way there.
Gold Stocks Index – The Leading Indicator for Gold Bullion
I watch the price of gold stocks very closely because when there is large divergence from the price action of gold bullion I can get in a trade before the general public does.
Tuesday we saw gold stocks put in a powerful rally yet gold bullion did not move much. This told me there was going to be some positive action Wednesday in gold and there was a very nice rally, indeed.
This monthly chart of gold stocks shows a monthly breakout which is exciting to see. Most rallies last between 3-6 months on a breakout like this. That being said we could still have another 1-3 months of sideways price action as gold bullion tries to clear out the over head supply.
Gold Bullion – Monthly Timing Chart
The gold chart clearly shows that we are near a major breakout. You can also see the similar price action before the last major breakout which is encouraging.
Gold Breakout Trading Newsletter
GLD Gold Bullion Trust – Weekly Timing Chart
Gold has broken out of is bullish pennant and now trying to break through the overhead resistance. So far the price action is strong but do not expect a breakout instantly. The market always has a way of dragging things out much longer than one may anticipate.
Gold Bullion Trading Breakout
GLD Gold Bullion ETF – Daily Timing Chart
The daily chart clearly shows that if we continue to form a bull flag or some type of pennant formation it major breakout could takes weeks from here.
Gold ETF Breakout Trading
Natural Gas – Weekly Timing Chart
Several weeks’ back I pointed out that Natural Gas was extremely over sold and at 10 year lows which was a good point to start scaling into a position. This high risk setup has paid off well for those following actively trading the over bought and over sold conditions with me.
We now have a breakout and are waiting for a low risk entry point to buy more natural gas.
Natural Gas Breakout Signal Trading
Crude Oil – Weekly Timing Chart
Crude oil continues to trade within a set of bull wedges making it difficult to get a low risk setup. I trade over bought, over sold and trends, not sideways/trend less investments which USO has been in my eyes for a few months.
Soon enough it will flash a buy or sell signal for me and we will be active again with USO and other oil funds.
Crude Oil Bul Market Trading
Weekly Market Timing Conclusion:
Overall our precious metal stocks and bullion trades are doing well. We continue to wait for a breakout, hopefully to the upside, but have protection stops in place to lock in gains if prices drop on us.
The energy sector has been tricky because oil is trend less and natural gas has gone straight up. Again my focus is on low risk, high probability trades and I don’t chase or make trades when there is nothing to trade.
If you would like to receive my Free Weekly Trading Reports like this please visit my website: www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com
Chris Vermeulen
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Gold is back in the spot light as it flirts with the $1000 per ounce level. This closely watched commodity looks as thought it will rocket higher because of the multiple trading time frames indicating breakouts.
I mainly focus is on trading the daily chart but I always refer back to the longer time frames which are the weekly and monthly charts. Knowing the momentum and trend on these long term trading charts allow me to identify the strength of the rallies and sell offs on the daily chart. I use this analysis for determining how large of a position to take, and where to place profit targets and stop loss levels.
Trading gold stocks does provide explosive opportunities when the price of gold moves. The past couple years I have only been focusing on trading gold to the long side because the overall long term trend is up. Trading with the longer term trend always improves the odds of winning the trade. I will short GLD or GDX funds for an intraday trade using my simple Kitco gold overlay Day Trading Strategy. I have posted this strategy a couple of times on the internet, if you want to read more about it.
Below is my analysis explaining the price action of gold stocks on the daily, weekly and monthly charts. I also a listed the US and Canadian funds which I trade.
HUI Gold Stocks Index – Daily Chart – Short Term
The daily chart of the HUI clearly shows buy and sell signals, which were generated in the past 2 months. Using resistance trend lines for breakout levels is very important. I also use pivot lows to draw and connect my support trend lines, which allow me to calculate down side risk and buy signals. The recent breakout is very strong and that is because the weekly and monthly charts are showing a breakout to the upside triggering longer term traders/investors to buy.
Daily chart buy and sell signals are for short term trades which last between 2-20 trading days. My focus is to lock in 1-5% gains but in a strong trend I can pocket 10-20% return in a short period of time.
Gold Stocks Newsletter
HUI Gold Stocks Index – Weekly Chart – Intermediate Term
Weekly chart patterns and breakouts provide a much larger move in general so watching this chart is crucial for long term success. Following the weekly chart goes for trading every investment vehicle whether you are trading stocks, futures, FOREX etc…
This chart generated a buy signal in December of 2008, which we took advantage of. And just 2 weeks ago it gave us another buy signal. Again using my simple trading strategy which involves trend lines and the MACD momentum indicator, we are able to establish clear buy and sell signals.
Gold Stocks Trading
HUI Gold Stocks Index – Monthly Chart – Long Term
Long term investors will use the monthly chart for timing their buy and sell signals because once the momentum has shifted direction it tends to last for several months if not years. I do not focus on trading these long term signals but I use them to help me know the momentum (power) of the next possible breakout. This also helps me in deciding whether to scale out on rallies with some of my position locking in some profit and buying back on dips, while leaving a core position incase the price continues to rally.
The monthly chart of the HUI shows a breakout this month and if the price can hold until Oct we will have a complete long term buy signal. I use the MACD for momentum and the HUI:GLD ratio to confirm the breakout which puts the odds more in my favor.
Gold Stocks Newsletter
Precious Metals Funds for Trading Gold and Silver Moves – Daily Chart
Here is a list of the precious metals funds I trade on a regular basis. I trade both US and Canadian funds. Because I am based in Canada I focus on Canadian gold stocks and gold funds when there are intermediate/long term signals which I trade in my retirement account.
The funds I trade are GLD (gold bullion), GDX (gold miner stocks), SLV (Silver Bullion), XGD.TO (Canadian Gold Stocks), CEF/A.TO (Canadian Gold & Silver Bullion). If you look at a comparison chart you will see some funds provide much larger moves than others. In general I like to own a bullion fund and a precious metal stock fund so that I get the best of both worlds.
Gold Trading Investments GLD, SLV, HUI, GDX
My Gold Stocks Newsletter Trading Conclusion:
In short, Gold and gold stocks are on fire. The next 13 trading days are very important for gold as it battles to breakout above the $1000 – $1033 level which is the 2008 high. With gold trading at this MAJOR resistance level also known as a “Pivot Point”, the risk level is higher for traders. The odds are pointing to higher prices but we must recognize that price action becomes volatile and fast moving. We could see the price breakout and rally to the $1500 level within months which is what are currently positioned for. But we must realize that gold could create a double top and sell off very quickly which is why we have stops in place to protect us.
So those of you who are long be sure to lock in some profit and be ready for some wild price action in the coming weeks.
If you would like to receive these Free Weekly Reports please Opt-in to my newsletter at: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com
Chris Vermeulen
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How to trade hot commodities like natural gas, oil and gold – We should see big moves in the coming weeks as gas bottoms, and oil & gold breakout or breakdown. A lot of money is going to be exchanging hands quickly and the key is to be on the receiving end of things. Below are some charts showing where these commodities are trading.
How to Trade Gold – Weekly Chart
How I trade gold is relatively straight forward. I use a simple trading model which allows me to identify the down side risk for a potential gold trade. I also use the same model for trading oil, gas and silver.
Beyond finding good entry points, it is crucial to know when to take some profits off the table. The weekly gold chart clearly shows gold trading at a resistance level which means there are going to be more sellers than buyers, hence the reason it is called resistance?.
To trade gold I enter with my low risk entry points and sell half my position once I reach a resistance level. Today for example gold moved up into this long term resistance level and then started to head south. We took some profits off the table before gold dipped in the late afternoon for a healthy gain. Taking profits is a must or you’ll simply hold onto winning positions until they eventually turn into a loser.
Gold Newsletter
How to Trade Crude Oil – Weekly Chart
Trading crude oil is exciting because it moves much faster than gold. How to trade crude oil with low risk can be done by using my simple trading model which is a combination of indicators like momentum, support & resistance, volume, price patterns and media coverage. All these things combined allow for highly accurate trades with minimal down side risk.
Crude oil looks ready to make a big move. The odds are pointing to higher prices because oil has a multi month bullish price action and the falling US dollar helps increase the price of oil. I can see oil breakout and rally into the $95 per barrel level if things go that way in the coming weeks.
How To Trade Crude Oil Breakout
How to Trade Oil (USO Fund) – Weekly Chart
USO tracks similarly to the price of crude oil and it provides some great trades for both swing traders and day traders. I focus on trades that bounce off support with low downside risks, which occur on both the daily and weekly charts.
How to Trade Oil
How to Trade Natural Gas – Weekly Chart
Natural gas is looking ready to bottom here. If you go back to the early 90’s the $2-3 range is a major support level. While I don’t generally try to pick bottoms, there are some signature price patterns and volume patterns that have proven to be very profitable for catching sharp bounces.
How to trade Natural Gas
How to Trade Natural Gas – Daily Chart
The daily chart shows a perfect waterfall sell off with the price of natural gas dropping to a long term support level. This pattern combination shows panic selling which indicates a short term bottom is close.
The extreme panic selling and sharp decline in price, removes much of the down side risk. Scaling into a position over a few days, if the price continues to move lower, is important for this strategy to work its magic.
The black horizontal lines show my resistance levels for taking profits. If the price were to drop below $10 then I would exit the second half of the position to lock in the rest of the profit.
How to Trade UNG
How to Trade Commodities Conclusion:
Trading commodities is very simple with all the ETF’s and funds available. The energy funds like oil and gas have some issues with following the prices of their underlying commodity but I do not find it a problem with my style of trading.
I would really like to know the entire story about what is going on with the oil and nat gas funds which have crazy contango issues??? Why do other commodity funds like GLD (gold bullion) and SLV (silver bullion) not have these issues?? Why can’t they make a fund which follows oil and gas properly? All I know is that there are a lot of dishonest people in the financial industry taking honest hard working peoples money.
If you would like to receive my free weekly trading reports visit this webpage to join my newsletter: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com
Chris Vermeulen
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Another crazy week in commodities with precious metals and precious metal stocks surging higher on heavy volume, while natural gas and crude oil move lower. Money seems to be rotating out of energy and into precious metals.
Spot Gold Bullion – Weekly Trading Chart
Gold jumped higher today breaking out of its 6 month pennant pattern. If prices can hold into the weekend then I expect the $1000 per ounce to be reached quickly. Also Gold stocks took off like rockets, which are a strong sign that gold will follow through on this breakout. It will be interesting to see what happens from here.
Gold Newsletter
Spot Silver Bullion – Weekly Trading Chart
Silver and silver stocks are shooting higher as well.
Silver Newsletter
Natural Gas – Monthly Trading Chart
Natural gas continues to trade lower. The good news is that the price of natural gas is now at a major support level, which was formed as far back as 1996. The weekly natural gas chart shows much of the same price action that oil had before reversing to the up side in February of this year. I would not be surprised, if we see buyers stepping into natural gas at this level.
Natural Gas Newsletter
Crude Oil – Weekly Trading Chart
Crude oil continues to trade within its bullish wedge pattern. We will be looking for a low risk entry point for oil this month using the daily chart.
Crude Oil Newsletter
Commodity Trading Conclusion:
Precious metals are showing strength while the energy sector continues to have selling pressure. Gold, silver, natural gas and oil look ready to make big moves in the coming weeks and, being positioned on the right side, will generate some massive profits.
Staying focused for low risk entry points is important when volatility and emotions are running high. The excitement/stress for traders this week is very high. With precious metals and precious metal stocks breaking out today on massive volume, it has traders excited or in a panic, if they are not positioned yet. To add more fire to the week, natural gas continues to fall, triggering a panic sell reaction by many investors/traders.
I do like precious metals as a bull play here, but risk is a little higher than I would like. The past couple months precious metals have been jumping around like a yoyo, making it very difficult to find a low risk entry points.
I know many traders are in serious pain, because they bought natural gas a couple months ago, expecting a rally which did not happen. I would like to mention that I am seriously starting to think about scaling into Natural Gas over the next 1-2 months. Natural gas reminds me of a Canadian fund XTR, which I scaled into last February and am now sitting with a very healthy gain, not to mention a 16% dividend. I feel Nat Gas will pay off huge over the long run, but it will take some time to bottom.
If you would like to receive my Free Weekly Trading Newsletter or my Trading Signals visit my website at: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com
Over the past couple of months, gold and silver have been uneventful. In this report I have posted weekly charts to show the larger trend of gold and silver. Also I have provided small charts of the US and Canadian gold stock funds GDX and XGD.
Because this report has weekly charts, which are a slow and dull time frame to follow, I have added another one of my Kitco Spot Gold Overlay trades, which is a short day trade to liven things up.
GLD ETF – Gold Bullion Price Action – Weekly Chart
I spoke with a few members last week, who wanted me to change my analysis for gold, which I agree with. So I would like to address this now to keep everyone on the same path.
In previous reports I have pointed out the reverse head & shoulders pattern in this weekly chart below. But to be honest, it is not a reverse head & shoulders, which everyone is saying it to be.
Why is gold not in a reverse H & S pattern? Because a reverse H & S pattern is just that, it means the price will reverse from the previous trend. A reverse H & S happens after a downtrend, which forms a bottom and the trend is not moving higher.
Gold has been moving higher, which you can see in 2007 and this large pattern is more like a Cup & Handle pattern – extremely bullish.
Trading Spot Gold Chart - Weekly
SLV ETF – Silver Bullion Price Action – Weekly Chart
Silver is trading a little different than gold. As you can see the price is trading much lower than the 2008 high. There are also two small patterns forming, which are a small head and shoulders top or a bullish pennant.
Last Friday we saw gold and silver prices jump, but until we get a low risk entry point, I continue to watch these commodities move inside their large weekly price patterns.
Spot Silver Chart - Weekly
US & Canadian Gold Stock Funds
These small charts show how bullish the price action is this year for gold stocks. But the exciting part, which is tough to see here, is that the Canadian fund is starting to show bullish price action. When both the US and Canadian gold funds are moving together, it means there will most likely be some tradable moves in the near future. Let’s keep focused and ready to take action in the coming weeks, as these bull flags near the end of their cycle.
US Trading Gold Stocks
Canadian Trading Gold Stocks
Day Trading Spot Gold – Day Trading GLD ETF
I will keep this short because I have written about this once before and below is the link to read my gold trading strategy in detail.
Day trading spot gold using the real-time kitco overlay chart is what I use to identify a possible day trade. The shaded box below shows a simple waterfall sell off and when I see that price action, I will generally take a position the next day around that time for a short trade in GLD.
I did not think to save this kitco chart until the following day so the waterfall price action was miniaturized because of Fridays rally. Also I would like to note this waterfall pattern happened 3 times in a row last week and I took advantage of them.
My Basic Strategy
Gold tends to move similar to what it did the previous day and traders know this, which is why the patterns starts 5-30 minutes earlier the following day, as we anticipate the move. Moves tend to repeat for up to 3 days. So you identify a sizable move and take action on it the following two days, as long as the rest of the day trades similar to the previous days. I like to scale into positions and once I see it going my way I add one final position to increase my exposure.
I am sure some of you are wondering how I traded GLD at 8am ET?
I trade with an online broker that allows me to trade pre-market and post market hours. Not very often these setups happen before 9:30am ET but last week it did.
Important note:
Once you see the price of gold making opposite moves of the previous day, minimize your position or don’t take the trade. As you can see in this chart below, the red line is starting to move the opposite way of the previous day (baby blue line) and later in the afternoon it was completely the opposite. This is a warning that there is a shift in the buyers/sellers and you can see the next day prices spiked higher in the opposite direction.
Technical Gold Trading Conclusion:
Overall precious metals are trending sideways in their bullish patterns and we are waiting for some low risk entry points.
During slow trading times, which we are currently in, I like to look for other profitable positions to satisfy my need to trade. As a full time trader, it is important to have a few styles of trading, which allow you to profit in any market condition. My main focus is on the commodity ETF’s, with low risk setups, but I also day trade GLD when opportunities arise and I also trade extremely over bought/oversold index plays using the leveraged ETF’s and focusing on my Active Trading Partners stocks trades, which provides profitable trades week after week. Combining these trading styles allow me to pull money from the market week after week without forcing any positions. I just let perfect setups unfold and I take advantage of them.
Soon I will be providing these gold day trades and index trades for members, which I think is very exciting. If you would like to receive my free weekly trading reports please visit my website at: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com
Chris Vermeulen
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Commodities continue to trade at their pivot points while the pressure rises!
As mentioned in my last report precious metals are trading at support, this is referred to as a pivot point. With any luck we will see gold and silver rally Thursday and Friday, but it that fails I figure PM’s will slide quickly to lower levels.
I would like to note that today gold had some strange intraday movements which I think was some type of manipulation of prices. With today’s bullish looking candle in gold (GLD) it was indicating that gold was bouncing off support which would trigger buyers for tomorrow. But some BIG sellers stepped in pulling prices back down to close below the mid point of today’s price action. I cannot say I like seeing that happen.
GLD Gold Bullion Fund
Gold posted a nice intraday gain but gave it all back going into the close. This is not the best price action for higher prices but not much we can do. Let’s see if prices hold up over our support trend line and continue the move up.
Gold Newsletter Trading Chart
Gold Miner Stocks ETF
Gold stocks took it on the chin yesterday with both gold moving lower and equities. The extra downward pressure caused a trend line break. Some damage was done but we still could get a bounce.
Gold Stock ETF Trading Newsletter
SLV Silver Bullion Fund
Silver put in a nice bounce today while gold traded flat. I find silver moves more naturally than gold because it is not as popular and because the USA does not manipulate it like gold which is tied to the Dollar. Silvers move higher today is a positive indicator showing us that there are buyers for gold, but unfortunately the bigger force pushed prices back down intraday.
Silver SLV ETF Newsletter Trading Chart
USO Oil Fund – Weekly Trend Chart
Oil is trending sideways and taking a breather. I expect to see a breakout to the up side but this could still be a few weeks away. I will keep an eye on it for a low risk entry point.
Crude Oil USO ETF Newsletter Trading Chart
UNG Natural Gas Fund
Natural gas is still trending down which can be seen clearly on the weekly chart. The farther gas continues to sell down, the larger the bounce/potential we will have in the future. Don’t rush this trade; let’s wait for it to come to us.
Natural Gas Trading Newsletter Chart
Technical Traders Conclusion:
The broad market put in a solid bounce today as buyers stepped back in to accumulate shares.
Gold and silver are trying to find support to start a new leg higher.
Silver is leading the way which is always a good sign for gold and gold stocks.
Energy is not looking as hot, but once we see natural gas bottom and start heading higher it should be fun. We continue to focus on low risk setups for gold and silver while we wait for some signals from energy sector to come our way.
If you would like to receive my Free Weekly Technical Traders Charts visit my website: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com
Chris Vermeulen
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Rising Commodities, Falling Stocks & Risk Reward Ratio
Trading Risk/Reward
The past few months have been absolutely crazy in the financial markets. Financial advisors and banks are taking a beating from both the market condition and clients as individuals around the world are losing 30+ of their investments. We have seen oil prices drop over $110 per barrel from the high (73% decline), and the US dollar tumbled down to 71 and rebounded to 88 (23% gain) all in the mater of months.
Risk Management is what is needed if we want to stay in the game over the long term. Follow strict risk/reward rules is a must so that we don’t not get caught chasing stocks and funds only to have them turn around on us a few days later.
Focusing on keeping risk low for potential trades is crucial for turning a profit over the long run. In short I look for a basket of indicators including candle patterns and volume to be in favor when buying or selling a stock or fund. When a fund generates a buy signal I wait for a low risk entry point near my support or resistance level depending if I am looking to go long or short. I need to see a perfect setup so that the odds are favoring my side. Only then will I take a stab at the market. The biggest issue with this is that I do miss a lot of good trades, but the key here is that most of my trades are profitable and that is what makes it so powerful. I would rather make 20 trades a year, than 150 trades and make the same profits.
This Weeks Analysis on Gold
Gold continued its push higher last week getting a lot of investors and traders all excited. The daily chart does look strong and it is currently on a buy signal. But buying at this level is much too high of a risk. The price of gold is trading at the top of its 4 month trading range which previously led to a 20% selloff in bullion. Our support trend line is 10% away from the price of gold making it out of reach still. I trade reversals when risk is only 3% from my stop/support price.
Daily Gold GLD Chart
Gold Stocks
Gold stocks have been struggling to move higher and last Friday gold made a nice move higher while gold stocks sold down. My last article talked about how trading gold (GLD) may be a better investment then gold stocks right now simply because of the bearish broad market. The broad market looks like it’s about to make another leg lower and when the broad market sells off, it pulls all stocks with it. The daily chart of the HUI Gold Bugs Index shows precious metal stocks moving sideways while gold pushed higher. When gold stocks start to underperform the price of gold I tighten my stops and mentally prepare myself for gold to pull back. The smart money always seems to move in and out of stocks faster than the commodity which is a topic I mentioned in a previous report as well.
Gold Bugs Index Daily Chart
Crude Oil Analysis
Crude Oil has been under continuous selling pressure for the past 7 months and this is the first buy signal I have had for it since it topped back in July 2008. The weekly chart is very close to a buy signal. If you look at the weekly chart of USO crude oil fund you will see that volume has shot through the roof which generally indicates a turning point. Also the MACD indicator is about to cross which will put this fund on a buy signal if things go well all of next week. The support trend line is trending up slightly and the down trend line is holding the price inside a small triangle. If the price breaks out and all my indicators are putting the odds in favor of a long trade, then we will be looking for a buy point on the weekly chart in the next few weeks. The weekly trading signals are good for intermediate and long term traders.
Crude Oil (USO) Weekly Trading Chart
Conclusion:
The broad markets continued to move lower last week as it remains in a long term bear market. For those looking to take advantage of gold, silver and oil movements I recommend sticking with the commodity funds as they can increase in value while the broad market is selling off. The daily chart of the hui gold bugs index shows this clearly as gold stocks in general are underperforming the price of gold right now. There is an opportunity for oil to make a move higher if things come together in the next couple of weeks but until then we will be patient and let the trade come to us.
If you have any questions please feel free to send me an email. My passion is to help others and for us all to make money together with little down side risk.
I look forward to hearing from you soon!
Chris Vermeulen
The Gold and Oil Guy
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METALS: February gold futures closed down $35.50 at $819.50 today. Prices closed near the session low, hit a fresh four-week low and saw a bearish downside “breakout” from a trading range on the daily chart. Bearish “outside markets”–lower crude oil prices and a firmer U.S. dollar–did pressure the gold market today. Near-term chart damage was inflicted today.
March silver futures closed down 73.0 cents at $10.59 an ounce today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh three-week low today. Bearish “outside markets”–lower crude oil prices and a firmer U.S. dollar–did pressure the market today. A 2.5-month-old choppy uptrend on the daily bar chart was penetrated on the downside today.
ENERGY MARKETS
ENERGIES: February crude oil closed down $3.07 at $37.76 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh two-week low today, amid a firmer U.S. dollar and more recent dour world economic data that suggests less demand for energy worldwide. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage and have regained downside momentum recently. Prices remain in a six-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
February gold closed lower on Wednesday as it extended this week’s decline and closed below the 20-day moving average crossing at 847.60 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week’s decline, trendline support drawn off the November-December lows crossing near 801.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 862.90 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is last Monday’s high crossing at 892.00. Second resistance is October’s high crossing at 938.80. First support is today’s low crossing at 836.00. Second support is trading line support crossing near 801.50.
March silver closed lower on Wednesday due to profit taking as it consolidates above the 10-day moving average. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.787 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October’s low, the reaction high crossing at 12.230 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 11.770. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at
12.230. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.946. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.787.
ENERGY MARKETS
February crude oil closed sharply lower on Wednesday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of the rally off December’s low. Today’s low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends this month’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 52.95 is the next upside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 52.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below last Wednesday’s low crossing at 36.94 would temper the near-term friendly
outlook in the market. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 50.47. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 52.95. First support is today’s low crossing at 43.26. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 42.28.
http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.png00adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2009-01-07 23:00:312009-01-07 23:00:31Wed Jan 7th Gold, Silver and Oil Commodity Update
