The two trend reversals everyone has been waiting a year for are about to take place, but they have not yet started.
While I do think 2014 is the year we see gold, silver, miners and many other commodities rally, it is important to follow the trend and wait for a reversal to form before getting overly excited and long commodities.
Each time we see the daily charts form some type of bullish pattern gold market traders become instantly bullish. And each time this happens they get another reality check about their trading technique of trying to pick a bottom.
I just published a book in December which teaches readers how to identify trends and stages in the market – “Technical Trading Mastery – 7 Steps to Win With Logic”. Buying into a bear market rally is not a high probability winning position. Odds favor that sellers will pull the price down and likely to new lows.
This January is one of these times and gold market traders are getting excited and long positions. While the bottom may in for precious metals, buying a bounce in a bear market is tricky and you better have some trading discipline to exit if price starts to sell back down.
Eventually we will see the stock market rollover and breakdown below its support trendline and gold will rally. But keep in mind, some of the largest percentage based moves take place just before a reversal. What does this mean? It means that the stock market could easily go parabolic and rally for a few more weeks, then reverse down sharply. And precious metals would do the opposite, sell off, make new lows, then reverse back up and start a new bull market.
Stock Market VS. Gold – Gold Market Traders Be Aware!
Below are a few more charts showing my big picture trend analysis for silver and gold miners.
Gold Market Traders Conclusion:
In short, the precious metals sector is still in a bear market and has not yet reversed to the upside. As you know I don’t pick bottoms or tops which go against the longer term trend. In this case the trend is down for precious metals so I am not trying to pick a bottom.
While I am starting to get excited about the eventual bottom in gold, I am still sitting on the fence with my cash.
If you would like to get my analysis every day and my gold trades be sure to join me at www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com
Chris Vermeulen
http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.png00adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2014-01-20 10:59:282014-03-03 12:09:49Gold Market Traders: Metals And Stock Market will Swap Trends – Part II
2013 was one of the worst years for gold in a generation and the strangest part of it is that this loss came during a time in what should have been a banner year for gold.
When the Fed launched its QE1 and QE2 programs, gold posted huge gains but with QE3, we only had a brief rally in late 2012, it’s been all downhill form there.
The price of gold over the last year highlights just how much Europe has become a powerful driver behind gold vs. the US which has historically been the main mover. When the European debt crisis started a few years ago, people fearing a financial meltdown in Europe put a lot of their money into gold as it was the save haven of choice.
However, with financial and political risk in Europe subsiding, we have seen money leave gold and move into other markets, hence the big outflows from gold ETF’s.
Other factors that have dragged on gold over the last year include falling jewelry demand, the loss of its role as an inflation hedge with deflation becoming more of a concern in some areas, also tax increases on gold imports in India, and the supposedly improving economy in the US. All these contributed to the selling of gold.
Gold and gold stocks crashed last year in the summer. They have since been going through a stage one base. This suggests that 2014 will mark the start of a new bull market for gold, gold mining stocks and commodities. The commodity sector as a whole should be your focus in the coming months if you want to be able to invest in something for longer than a few days or weeks and make a huge amount of money be sure to check out my gold newsletter.
Gold Market Traders & Manipulators Provide Contrarian Bullish Outlook
Gold market traders and manipulators like some of the commercial banks/brokerage firms have been verbally slamming gold, and it turns out many are not as negative as lead us to believe…
Goldman Sachs we all know are the biggest hypocrites. While advising clients to sell gold in the second quarter of 2013, they bought a stunning 3.7 million shares of the GLD. And when Venezuela needed to raise cash and sell its gold, guess who jumped in to handle the transaction? Yup, GS! So while they tell everyone to sell gold, they are accumulating as much as they can without being obvious.
There is a lot more reasons and fundamentals to be bullish on commodities and gold, but that is not the point of this technical based report.
Weekly CRB Commodity Index – Bull Market Cycle About To Start
Taking a quick look at the CB index which is a basket of commodities, it looks as though a breakout above its down trend line will trigger a new bull market in the commodity sector. While this has not yet happened it looks as though it may happen in the next few months.
On stock market that recently broke out of a Stage 1 basing pattern (new bull market) is the Toronto Stock Exchange. This index is heavily weighted with commodity based stocks. I talk about this more in my new long-term algorithmic trading newsletter.
In this report I want to show you some interesting charts that are pointing to a new gold bull market cycle which looks to be starting.
The chart below of the gold miner’s bullish percent index is often misread by many traders and trade off its information incorrectly. Many for example think this index is based on stocks trading above a moving average which is no correct.
How a bullish percent index is calculated is based on Point & Figure buy and sell signals with each individual stock within the sector and in our case the gold minders ETF GDX.
Gold prices peaked in 2011 at $1923 an ounce when the gold mining stocks index was above 80%. Why is this important? Because gold stocks typically lead the price of gold in both directions, tops and bottoms.
As of today we have the reverse situation with the bullish percent index at 13% and showing bullish divergence from that of gold stocks. This is an early signal that the new gold bull market cycle is turning up and it should not be overlooked.
Also we see the 5th and final Elliott wave pattern forming and we could once again witness another multi year rally in the price of gold.
Gold Mining Bullish Percent Index – Weekly Chart
Gold Miners ETF – Monthly Chart
Gold stocks have not yet broken out to start a rally as you can see in the chart below. But the important thing to note is that the daily chart has formed a mini Stage 1 Basing patterns and could breakout this week to kick start a multi month/year rally.
Gold & Gold Stock Bull Market Conclusion:
If you have been following me for a while, you know I don’t try to be a hero and pick tops or bottoms. We all know that strategy is a losing one over the long run.
Since 2011 I have been a very dormant gold trader. Why? Because the price and technical indicators topped out and confirmed a massive consolidation or bear market was in motion.
With gold, gold stocks and precious metals about to start a new bull market, it is time to get back to trading gold and gold stocks.
You can get my daily gold, silver and gold stock analysis every morning with my gold newsletter and save 50% on your membership by joining today!
http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.png00adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2014-01-12 13:18:522014-03-03 12:19:40Gold Market Traders – New Gold Bull Market Cycle Has Started
Back on April 9th I posted a short tutorial on how to momentum trade gold along with my short term gold forecast.
