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CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
Do you want to know where other opportunities can be found based on this NQ prediction? Are you ready for these types of great trade setups for the rest of 2019 and into 2020? In part II of this article, we’ll highlight two more great trade setups that align with our expectations for the US and global markets. You should be starting to get a feel of where stocks are headed along with precious metals for the next 8-24 months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter. Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter. You won’t want to miss this big move, folks. As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months. Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!
Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis! Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.comDeutsche Bank Massive Exposure Could Cripple Europe
A recent article we found on ZeroHedge highlights the risk exposure from Deutsche Bank and how that derivatives/banking risk could spill over into another global financial market crisis again. The ZeroHedge article stated that Deutsche Bank has $49 trillion dollars in derivatives exposure, making it the single greatest danger to Europe and global financial institutions imaginable at this time. This additional article from TheStreet, from May 2016, highlights the continued risks associated with the global financial system and the level of derivatives risk that is inherent in the system. Here is a quote from that article that attempts to rationalize debt exposure… ”Let’s take the latest data in Deutsche Bank’s annual report for 2015. It shows that the bank’s total, notional exposure to derivatives transactions is 41.9 trillion euros ($46.8 trillion). While that’s more than 35% lower than its 2013 exposure, it still looks huge. However, after offsetting the positive and negative exposures against each other, the net exposure is a much more manageable 18.2 billion euros ($20.3 billion).” The data that we’ve been able to find regarding US exposure to the global derivatives market is rather limited in scope. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis provides some data, but we believe this data fails to include shadow/gray banking risks. Traders must be aware of the fact that the global economy has been running on ether after the 2009 market collapse. Global central banks have poured capital into the markets and foreign economies have consumed vast amounts of easy-money capital to run up huge debt levels while creating massive shadow/gray level financial systems. In our opinion, the current global banking situation is far more fragile now than it was 10 years ago. The US is in a far better position to handle risks and exposure to risks than it was in 2008-09 and the real issue before us is the level of unknown risks that are a complete black hole in the foreign markets.Ray Dalio Says Gold Is the Best Asset During Global Financial Reset And Eric Sprott Likes Gold Also.
A recent article by Ray Dalio, he stated gold is the asset in which we should all be accumulating as it will be a top performer globally when things start to fall apart. On May 31st Eric Sprott talked about my gold forecast in detail. Since then I have accumulated more gold and silver from Eric Sprott’s company https://www.SprottMoney.com/ and you should too.Federal Reserve Bank Data Is A Warning Sign
Ok, now take a look at these graphs from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis to see the data that is currently being reported. Net US Acquisitions of non-derivatives assets have been relatively tame over the past 6+ years. We can see from this chart the continued acquisition of assets from 2002 through 2007-08 – just before the credit crisis event. Then, we can see how dramatically the assets were dumped between 2007 and 2009. We’re not seeing that type of setup or event play out currently in the US. This next chart highlights the US financial derivatives net position and we can see the peak in 2008-09 and the dramatic deleveraging that has taken place over the past 8+ years. This chart shows the US financial derivatives levels are less than 25% of the levels from the start of 2008. ($31B vs $125B). This last chart highlights the fact that US investors and institutions have been deleveraging from derivatives recently – as shown by the net negative transactions data on this chart. This suggests that investors are worried about the future and have been attempting to remove risk from their investments since the peak in early 2018. Notice similar net transaction declines in 2014-15 and 2009-10. We believe the dips in these assets are related to US Quantitative Easing actions and investor concerns regarding the elimination of easy money policies. We will take a look at when and how these correlations to risk aversion and QE actually take place in Part II. In the second part of this article, we’ll explore how the US economy, US Fed and global banking sector could be complicating this derivative risk exposure and how traders need to prepare for this event – if it takes place as we suspect. If you want to see 5 other crucial warning signs about the US markets and global economic downturn just take a look at this short video and charts. In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here. I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here. On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis. More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts. On June 17th I showed my chart of the transportation index forming a double top formation. It’s known that the transportation index leads the broad stock market and if the transports are breaking down then we must expect the bear market is close. I then went on to talk about the precious metals breakout with silver and silver miners leading the way. Gold miners broke out as well while gold continued to hold its bullish formation. See Transportation index double top.CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where stocks are headed along with precious metals for the next 8-24 months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter. This bear market has been a long time coming, but finally, almost all the signs are showing that it’s about to start. As a technical analyst since 1997 having lost a fortune and made fortunes from bull and bear markets I have a good understanding of how to best attack the market during its various stages. Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter. You won’t want to miss this big move, folks. As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months – most traders/investors have simply not been looking for it. Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!
Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis! Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.comBECOME A TECHNICAL TRADER TODAY AND TRADE WHAT MATTERS – PRICE ACTION! CLICK HERE
Chris VermeulenOur continued efforts to alert and assist fellow traders to the incredible setups that are currently happening throughout the globe with regards to increased global economic tensions are starting to take root. We are hearing from our readers and follower and we love the comments we are receiving. Near April/May 2018, we started predicting that the end of 2018 and almost all of 2019/2020 were going to include incredible opportunities for skilled traders. We made these predictions at about the same time that we issued a series of incredible calls regarding the future market moves in 2018 & 2019.
April 22, 2018: Predictive Modeling Is Calling For A Continued Rally
https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/our-advanced-predictive-modeling-is-calling-for-a-continued-rally/
May 8, 2018: If You Knew What We Knew…
https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/if-you-knew-what-we-knew/
September 17, 2018: Predictive Trading Model Suggests Falling Stock Prices During US Elections
https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/predictive-trading-model-suggests-falling-stock-prices-us-elections/
January 20, 2019: Will China Surprise The Market?
https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/china-surprises-the-us-stock-market/
Our most recent multiple-part research post regarding the current global economic environment and how EU elections, US/China trade issues and a very contentious US Presidential Election cycle are poised to continue driving increased price volatility just hit the digital medium last weekend (https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/us-vs-global-sector-rotation-what-next-part-ii/ ). We urge all of our followers to read this detailed article about how a series of global events are stacking up to create incredible opportunities for skilled traders.
Today, we are focusing on Crude Oil because our proprietary adaptive learning Fibonacci modeling system is suggesting a surge of massive volatility is very likely to happen over the next few months in Crude Oil and we believe the DOWNSIDE price risk is the most likely outcome at this point. Fibonacci price theory dictates that price must ALWAYS attempt to seek out new price highs or new price lows – ALWAYS. We interpret this price requirement as the following:
“Tracking major price peaks and valleys, one can determine if the price is currently achieving new higher high price levels or lower low price levels (thus continuing the price trend) or failing to reach these new higher high or lower low levels. Any failure to reach new higher highs or lower lows is a warning that price may be attempting to continue a previous price trend or reversing.”
This Weekly chart of Crude Oil clearly illustrates our thinking in terms of this Fibonacci price theory component and other technical aspects. The CYAN price trend line (downward sloping) suggests a failure to establish any new price highs over the longer term trend. Additionally, the recent downward price rotation suggests price weakness may be returning to Crude Oil. Pay very special attention to the Fibonacci price projection levels on the right side of this chart. Notice that the upside price projections start near $74 and the downside price projections start near $33. This is an incredible $41 price range in Crude Oil and this very wide Fibonacci projection range suggests massive volatility is about to hit.
This Daily Crude Oil chart showing our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system’s results also suggests incredible upside and downside price projections. The upside levels target the current price level (near $63.50) as well as additional levels above $70. The downside levels target a range of lower price objectives between $53 and $57. The current Fibonacci price target level (CYAN) is quite interesting as it suggests Oil prices will find resistance near $63.50 and potentially move lower if this upside price trend fails.
Therefore, we take the entire analysis into consideration and come to the following conclusion:
If price falls below the $64 level and begins to move below $61.85 (the Daily Fibonacci Bearish Trigger Level), then we would consider the current upside price trend to have “failed” in attempting to reach a “new higher high” level (which would require price to move to levels above $66.60). This conclusion would suggest that the failure of the upside price move should prompt a downside price move attempting to take out the $60.07 lows (attempting to establish a “new lower low” price level).
The longer-term downward sloping price channel suggests the failure to achieve recent higher price highs is indicative of a failed rally attempt which will prompt a new downside price move in the near future. The only condition that could reverse this analysis is if Oil prices rallied above $66.60 and attempted to break the longer term price channel.
It is our opinion that Crude Oil will attempt a move lower, attempting to breach the $60.07 low price level and attempt a move back to levels near $55 to $56 before finding support. This current rotation in price is a process of setting up a downward sloping Pennant/Flag formation (we believe). Global economic factors, being what they are right now, are likely to see increased supply and decreased demand for Oil across the planet – at least until more clarity and resolution is established with the US/China trade issues and the US Presidential elections.
Get ready for a big move in Crude Oil. Our analysis suggests the move will be to the downside with a downside target between $53 and $55 right now. Any further price expectations will be updated as we get further information from our proprietary price modeling systems. Remember, any new conflicts/wars with Iran or in the Middle East will push Oil prices much higher and negate the technical analysis/supply/demand price analysis we’ve presented. We would not like to see any conflicts happen, but we have to be aware that this reality exists and that Oil could rally well past $70 if a new conflict occurred.
If you want to follow the exact trades I take while learning to read the charts and make money be sure to join my Wealth Trading Newsletter today!
Chris Vermeulen
Our research team, at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com, have been pouring over the charts and data to identify what is likely to happen over the next 60+ days in terms of global stock market volatility vs. the US stock market expectations. Recently, we posted a research article highlighting our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system on the Transportation Index (https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/markets-rally-hard-is-the-volatility-move-over/). This research suggests we are still going to experience increased price volatility over the next 30 to 60+ days and that price rotation may become somewhat of a normal expectation throughout the rest of 2019.
We believe the key to understanding price volatility over the next 30+ days lies in understanding the potential causes of uncertainty and capital shifts that are taking place around the globe.
Next week, On May 23~26, 2019, the European Elections take place (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/0/european-elections-2019-uk-vote-date-results/). This voting encompasses all 26 EU nations where all 753 European Parliament seats may come into question. The biggest issues are BREXIT and continue EU leadership and economic opportunities for members. The contentious pre and post-election rancor could drive wild price swings in the global markets over the next 10+ days.
A tough stance between both nations, the United States and China, have left trade talks completely unresolved (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china/chinas-tough-trade-rhetoric-leaves-talks-with-u-s-in-limbo-idUSKCN1SN207). At this point, the currency market is attempting to absorb much of the future expectations while the US/China stock markets react to immediate news events and perceived future economic outcomes. Overall, until this issue is resolved for both nations, the news cycles will likely drive increased price volatility across the global markets.
The US 2020 Presidential Elections are ramping up with over 24 Democratic potentials attempting to unseat President Trump. The current new from DC regarding the continued DOJ investigations and political posturing regarding Barr, Nadler and a host of other DC actors is setting up for a “cliff hanger” outcome over the next 12+ months. This will likely become one of the most hotly contested US Presidential election events in decades. The news of investigations, political corruption, and a potential US political “coup” attempt is certain to keep everyone guessing over the next 2+ years.
The markets are reacting to this volatility by attempting to adjust valuations expectations and future economic outcomes in multiple forms; currency price valuations (attempting to adjust to a shifting future economic landscape as well as to attempt to mitigate risk/capital/credit issues), Stock Market price valuations (attempting to further mitigate risk/capital and credit issues, and debt rates (attempting to effectively price risk and output expectations for the future).
Here is a map of the Currency Market over the past 12 months. We can see the dramatic shift that has taken place since the price peak in February 2018.
Overall, the US Dollar has continued to strengthen over the past 12+ months and is regaining the “King Dollar” status as the global uncertainty continue to plague foreign and EU markets. We don’t expect this to change in the near future.
Our continued research into the current price rotation in the US and global markets suggest that we are going to continue to experience moderately high price volatility across all markets over the next 30 to 60+ days – possibly well into the end of 2019. As we suggested, above, the uncertainty relating to the multiple election events and global trade/geopolitical events do not present a foundation of calm and collected future guidance. The only thing we can suggest regarding these future expectations is that the US and more mature global markets should be able to navigate these uncertain times much more effectively than emerging or “at risk” foreign markets.
Below, you will see a global Heat-Map spanning one week. Traders should take special notice that certain EU countries are surviving the recent global price rotation quite well (France, Netherlands, Switzerland, Ireland, Germany, and others). We believe this is the result of the fact that these economies are rather mature and consistent in their output and expectations. Pay attention to the South American, Asian and Caribbean nations. It would appear that a fairly strong price contraction is taking place throughout much of these nations as the focus shifts towards the more mature markets.
The following One Month global Heat-Map highlights a slightly different economic picture for some nations, yet confirms the shorter-term (weekly) trends for many others. Bermuda, Cayman, Germany, and Switzerland appear to be the Bullish Leaders over the past 30 days while the rest of the globe appears to be slipping into Bearish price trends. Canada and the UK appear moderately mixed with some green showing on the heat-map – which would be expected as both of these nations are considered mature global economies with strong economic ties to the US.
We believe the next 10~30+ days are going to be filled with moderate price volatility and we expect a setup in the global markets, near the end of June 2019, where a massive price volatility explosion may take place. This could be correlated with some trade issue, some fallout of the EU elections or some breakdown in credit/debt risks taking place between now and September 2019. We’ll go into more detail in Part II of this research post.
This is proving to be an incredible trading year for traders who follow our trade alerts newsletter.
For active swing traders, you are going to love our daily trading analysis. On May 1st we talked about the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” and that is exactly what is happening now right on queue. In fact, we closed out our SDS position on Thursday for a quick 3.9% profit and our other new trade started Thursday is up 18% already.
Second, my birthday is only three days away and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.
Right now I am going to give away and shipping out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. I only have a few more left as they are going fast so be sure to upgrade your membership to a longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans, and you will receive:
1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)
2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)
I only have a few more silver rounds I’m giving away
so upgrade or join now before its too late!
SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!
Happy May Everyone!
Chris Vermeulen