The US Stock market rallied on Friday, October 25, on TESLA earnings crushing expectations as well as news that any positive US trade deal outcomes could see almost immediate removal of future tariffs that are scheduled to be implemented near the end of October. This was enough for the markets to rally from the start of trading and continue to push higher until near Noon in NY. After new highs were reached, the markets contracted a bit headed into the close.
Gold shot up early this morning before the news related to the US trade deal hit. Our opinion is that this is a natural advancement in precious metals that is not new related or muted by some external factors. Precious metals have been setting up a sideways FLAG formation for over 2 months and we believe the apex/breakout move is near.
Oil was somewhat flat to close out the week and closed trading near $56.63. The past three days we have seen oil rise from the $53 level to the current price levels, but we believe oil is still fundamentally oversupplied and that price will continue to weaken over time.
The real question before all of us right now is will this new nominal high represent a new breakout bullish price trend heading into a US Presidential Election cycle, or is this more price rotation within a defined price range?
If you consider all the shifting aspects of the US political and economic landscape as well as the current geopolitical and economic factors, we believe any real breakout move will come as we get closer to November 2020 – not now. We believe this is still price rotation and we believe the NQ is the likely cause of this new nominal price high on Friday. Tesla crushed earnings and that set a positive tone for Friday’s trading.
TRANSPORTATION INDEX DAILY CHART
The TRAN, Transportation Index, is still trading near current resistance and has not shown any true new price high yet. It will be interesting to see how the markets open up early next week and what news may drive a new price trend by then.
MID-CAP SECTOR DAILY CHART
The Mid-Cap has failed to rally to recent price highs which suggest this is not a broad market rally. We would want to see more defined price advancement across all sectors and above recent price highs to call this a broad market rally/breakout
Pay attention to the new that originates this weekend. We don’t believe a deal will be reached with regards to trade as quickly as some others may believe and we still believe the next 12+ months of the US Presidential election cycle will be full of surprises. We may start to get more clarity of a true price trend after the New Year (2020). Until then, we’re staying cautious of these price rotations and picking our trades.
I urge you visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Bar!
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/0-1.png456850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-10-29 10:56:222019-10-29 10:56:22Nominal New Highs Reached, Skilled Traders Should Still Be Cautious
We continue to alert our followers of the extended Wedge (Flag or Pennant) formation that has setup over the past 16+ months in most of the US major indexes. The reason these are so important for skilled technical traders is because the Apex of these formations typically result in a violent price move that may result in a dramatic profit opportunity (or massive risk event). The most interesting facet of the current Wedge formation is that it is happening just 12 months before the US Presidential Election cycle.
It is our believe that a major price reversion event will begin to take place over the next 2 to 6+ weeks and complete near the end of 2019 or into early 2020. This reversion event is and continues to align with our super-cycle event analysis from earlier this year. Our researchers believe this reversion event is essential for price to establish “true valuation levels” and to begin a renewed future price trend. We believe that trend will begin between June 2020 and August 2020 and will result in a strong bullish price trend. We also believe this bullish price trend in the US stock market may last well beyond 12+ months – well into 2021 and beyond.
CUSTOM TECHNOLOGY WEEKLY INDEX CHART
This Custom Technology Index chart highlights the Wedge formation that is one of our main concerns. The Technology sector is one of the most heavily weighted sectors in the US stock market and the one that typically has the highest price to earnings multiple. Over the past 5+ years, billions have poured into the Technology sector chasing the rally and the security of the US stock market/US Dollar. A breakdown in this sector (like the DOT COM crash) could be devastating for the global markets. As you can see, the price is already very close to the lower price channel and could breakdown within the next 2 to 5+ weeks. Pay attention to weakness in the NASDAQ and/or the technology sector overall.
MONTHLY S&P 500 CHART
This S&P 500 chart highlights the rising Wedge formation that is set up and nearly complete. This Monthly chart also highlights the extended volatility within the global markets compared to levels prior to 2018. It is our opinion that the Apex of this Wedge will result in a breakdown/price reversion event targeting levels below 2600 on the SPX. This reversion could extend to levels below 2000 on extended price weakness. Our opinion is that the bottom will form sometime between December 2019 and April 2020 where a new Wedge formation will setup before reaching the Apex and starting a new upside price trend near August/October 2020.
We prepared for a very volatile price rotation/reversion event as these Wedges reach their Apex moment. Skilled technical traders should be able to find lots of opportunity for profits over the next 6+ months with these big price rotations.
WEEKLY US DOLLAR CHART
The US Dollar will likely rotate within the Magenta price channel as this has continued to provide very clear price support over the past 20+ months. We don’t believe the US Dollar will decline by more than 5% to 7% throughout the reversion event. The fact is that the US Dollar has regained a level of dominance within the world and the US Dollar may continue to strengthen for many months into the future.
Remember, these reversion events are essential for proper price exploration and future price trends to establish. They are fundamental to all price activity. A healthy price rotation will allow for future trends to establish and mature well into 2021~2024. The current Wedge formations must complete and the Apex rotation must happen in order for price to conduct “true price exploration” and “true price valuation”. From these levels, price will establish a new price trend that may continue for many years into the future.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
We strongly suggest all readers consider the risks of their open portfolio positions and take steps to protect against any unwanted risk exposure. As we are suggesting, we believe the Apex event will begin within 2 to 4+ weeks – possibly sooner. If you want to know what we are advising our clients about this event, visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can assist you.
I urge you visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar!
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. This quick and simple to understand guide on trading with technical analysis will allow you to follow the markets closely and trade with it. Never be caught on the wrong sie of the market again and suffer big losses. PDF guide: Technical Trading Mastery
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/120.png484850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-09-24 08:43:562019-09-24 08:43:56The Equities Wedge At The Edge – Front And Center
Our researchers identified this critical Double-Top pattern in the Transportation Index after a very strong price rally on Friday, July 12. Double-Top patterns are very important in terms of Fibonacci price structure because they reflect a complete price rejection at a certain price level. In this case, the TRAN Double Top level is $10,655 and our research team believes weakness at this level will push a downward price swing which should attempt to break through the $10,250 level and possibly attempt to move much lower.
The Transportation Index reflects future expectations for shipping of goods and raw materials across the US and, of course, is somewhat related to global economic activity. If the Transportation Index falls in price, then future expectations are for weaker economic activity. If it rises, then investors expect the economy to continue to strengthen.
This Double-Top formation in the TRAN could set up to become a very ominous warning sign for traders and investors.
Recent news about the contraction of China’s economy and the fact that Q2 earnings are about to hit the US markets and global markets could become a key factor in the future for volatility and price. We believe the markets are already setting up a topping pattern after breaching key psychological levels last week.
MINERS ARE OUTPERFORMING US EQUITIES – TOP IS NEAR!
Last month I talked about how I have been waiting for gold miners to start outperforming the US stocks market. Once miners start outperforming in a big way (just like we saw in 2007), we know the stock market is topping out and something really bad is about to happen.
In the last couple of weeks, the gold miners index is up over 20% while the SP500 is up only 4%, this feels like the start-of-the-end if you know what I mean.
Gold miners and silver broke out today in a big way which could very well be the start of an epic rally for the precious metals sector as we heading into the end of the year.
Looks at the SP500 index in the chart below which is of the 2007 bull market top. Currently, the SP500 has formed a very similar pattern in 2019 and with the precious metals rocketing higher I think it almost lights out for the US equities.
TRANSPORTS, INDUSTRIALS, and SMALL-CAP STOCKS Confirm Market Is Topping
Based on the 2008 weekly chart below the US stock market could be literally 2-6 weeks away from collapsing. What makes this even scarier is that the market liquidity is the worst its been in my 23 years of trading. This means when the selling starts we will likely see some sort of flash crash as we saw in 2008, 2015, and 2018. Price drops so quickly that by the time you figure out what you want to do and get your money properly positioned most of the move is already finished. See 2008 and 2019 Comparison Charts here.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
Pay attention to our research because we feel the market could breakdown on weakness later this week or early next week. Our predictive modeling systems are suggesting an August 19th, 2019 breakdown date and we are only about 25 trading days away from that date.
In short, the bear market has been a long time coming, but finally, almost all the signs are showing that it’s about to start. As a technical analyst since 1997 having lost a fortune and making a fortune from bull and bear markets I have a good understanding of how to best attack the market during its various stages. Stay Tuned for My Cycle Analysis Article Next!
Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter. You won’t want to miss this big move, folks. As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months – most traders/investors have simply not been looking for it.
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I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally also and some of these supercycles are going to last years. We go into great detail with this simple one of a kind and a real eye-opening financial market research booklet full of timely charts.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.
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I believe the outcome of the past 6+ months with regards to global trade, currency devaluations, and consumer sentiment will result in weaker US earnings in Q2 than at any time over the past 3+ years. We believe US stocks, after recently breaching key psychological price levels ($300 SPY and $3000 ES) are poised to set up a sideways Pennant price pattern formation headed into a key price breakdown near the middle of August 2019.
Our cycle indicator tools and predictive modeling suggests that August 19, 2019, is the date to watch out for and after that date, we believe the US and global stock markets may begin a new downward price phase that could lead to a dramatic price decline. Read our August 19 Top warning here
This week I will share a report showing some really interesting charts rm a very different point of view that signal a larger correction is coming based on some leading sectors and proprietary analysis. You can get this report by joining my free newsletter located at the bottom of my Current Index Trade Signal Page here.
Earning Season Expectations For This Week
Early this week, July 15 through July 19, a total of 173 companies will be reporting earnings – including a number of very large firms such as Bank Of America (BAC), Alcoa (AA), US Bancorp (USB), IBM, Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK), E-Bay (EBAY), Netflix (NFLX), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Citigroup (C), United Airlines (UAL), JP Morgan Chase & Co (JPM), Wells Fargo & Co (WFC) and others. The mix of reporting firms this week includes financial, consumer, basic materials, healthcare, home builders and many others.
If anything has disrupted these industries over the past 3+ months it has been the shock to the markets related to the October 2018 to December 2018 US stock market price collapse and the continuing trade wars/issues with China. It is our opinion that these trade wars and pricing disruptions have resulted in a much more difficult environment for certain US and foreign nations to achieve Q2 expectations. Thus, we are planning for a few interesting surprises over the next 10 to 15+ days.
Next week, July 22 through July 26, a total of 659 companies will be reporting earnings. We believe the bulk of these earnings reports will provide increased US and global market price volatility and could actually present a number of surprise results (both positive and negative).
The Nasdaq website reported this article on June 17, 2019, which we found interesting.
Expectations for Q2 2019, and to be quite honest – the rest of 2019, is overall quite negative from this article. We believe the US markets will still be the top-performing global stock market because of the strength of the US economy and dynamic foundation of growth and opportunity going forward 2 to 4+ years. But we are very concerned that the second half of 2019 stock market correction is about to hit and shock traders with a -15% to -20% (or more) price collapse initiated by the recent psychological price levels being breached and the Q2 earnings data that could shock the global markets.
From the Nasdaq article, Zacks Sector analysis for Q2 vs. Q1 2019 shows concern in a number of sectors while Consumer Discretionary and Retail/Wholesale shows Revenues increase and Margins fall. Overall, it is quite distressing to see these expectations when one considers the strong economic data being released recently.
(Source)
The computer and technology sector seems uniquely poised for a very rough year based on Zachs expectations. Overall, Q1 2019 earnings expectations were -6.7%, Q2 2019 earnings expectations are -11.5% and Q3 earnings expectations are -11.5%. This does not look like a very positive set of data for the rest of this year and we believe this is where the real risk of a US stock market price collapse resides.
Months ago, we warned that a July 2019 market top is setting up and that we believed the US stock market would rotate much lower after a peak in July setup. About 45 days ago, we adjusted our expectations to suggest that this top would likely form in August or early September based on our predictive modeling system output and our cycle tools. We’ve honed the date down to August 19, 2019 (+/- 5 days) as the date that we believe the US stock market will TOP and/or initiate a new downside price move from this date.
You can see from the chart, below, that we believe the current price top may actually be near the highest point reached over the next 30+ days. We believe earnings data will change the dynamics of price activity and increase volatility over the next 2 to 3 weeks. Setting up a sideways Pennant price formation as the global markets and investors digest this new economic data. Ultimately, a price breakdown is likely (a price revaluation event) that will allow for continued upside price growth in the future.
This Daily DJI chart highlights our expectations and highlights our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs that suggest the true price top formation will happen sometime near August 19, 2019. We believe this date is critical and that price could begin a very quick and dramatic downside price move near this date based on the data we are expecting to see from Q2 earnings.
We urge traders to plan and prepare for this potential setup by reducing risk in long positions and preparing for a potential downside price move that could be related to global market concerns, Q2 earnings data and continued global trade/economic issues.
Overall, once this price revaluation event is completed, much like the event in Oct~Dec 2018 and the event in May 2019, the US stock market will very likely resume the upward price bias/trend and continue to attempt to establish new all-time price highs into 2020 and beyond.
Price rotations, like the one we are suggesting, may happen after August 19, 2019, are very healthy for the markets. These types of moves allow price to establish support and resistance levels, revalue assets, shake out certain biases and provide for future price moves/trends.
Be prepared. The data may result in a very big increase in volatility over the next 10~15+ days and this could result in a very dramatic price correction setting up as we’ve suggested. Learn how our research team can help you stay ahead of these bigger market moves and find incredible trading opportunities as these big moves take place.
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these supercycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
I urge you to visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.
Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/122.png543850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-07-15 21:22:192019-07-15 21:22:19Earnings may surprise the stock market – Watch Out!
We believe a unique Pennant/Flag formation is setting up in the US stock markets. We believe the Small Cap sector may provide a better technical reference to the price breakout we are expecting in late August or early September than the mid or large-cap sectors. The charts tell a very interesting story when comparing the different sectors to the SPY.
As most of you are well aware, the very deep selloff between October and December 2018 prompted a low price pivot point that most technical analysts are using as a reference to support. What we find interesting is that these Small Caps have really failed to mount any type of price recovery. We believe this is because of the continued capital shift where foreign investors and institutional investors are piling into mid-cap and large-cap equities chasing dividends and safety. The small-cap index chart may provide the best technical reference for the pennant formation and eventual breakout move.
This weekly chart of TNA highlights exactly what we are referencing in comparison to the mid-cap and large-cap charts. Pay very close attention to the support level near $53.50. Also, notice that define panic formation setting up after the December 2018 bottom. We believe the price rotation in the small-cap index is clearer and more identifiable than the rotation in the mid-And large-cap indexes. We also believe the small-cap index will show early warning signs of price weakness or strength after the apex of this move.
The mid-cap and large-cap weekly charts paint a very different picture than the small-cap chart. We can see the upward price slow after the bottom in December 2018 was much more aggressive. We can also see an upward sloping Pennant formation setting up between the lower, blue, price channel and the magenta upward sloping price channel from the recent lows. Please pay close attention to the upper and lower support zones we drawn on this chart. Any future break down in price will likely find support near the upper support zone and possibly pause near this level before attempting a breakdown further if needed.
This last SPY weekly chart highlights the similarities between the made In the large-cap indexes. The way price reacts to these channels as well as creates these Pennant formations in unison is rather interesting. Compared to the small chart, the TNA, it is clear that the main and large-cap prices are moving somewhat in tandem.
At this point in the process, we are waiting for wave 3 to end and wave 4 to begin of the pennant formation. As price continues to consolidate within the pennant range, we should take advantage of opportunities that exist within this rotation and prepare for a brief breakout to new all-time highs. After new all-time highs are reached, we believe an immediate downside price rotation will begin sometime in September 2019 and last possibly into October or November 2019 – possibly longer.
Pay attention to vertical line number 10 on this chart. This price cycle reference occurs on September 8, 2019. It also occurs right after the apex of the pennant formation between the red and magenta lines. Our researchers believe a washout high price rotation, targeting new price highs, will be the likely resulting breakout move. After the washout high exhausts, we believe an immediate downside move will likely begin and push prices back below the 282 to 270 level while attempting to find support. Ultimately this downside move may attempt to retest the 240 level or lower. Time will tell.
Our suggestion is to pay attention to the small-cap index in relation to the mid-cap and the large-cap symbols. We believe the small-cap sector will provide greater detail for technical analysts and researchers. Overall, every one of these charts paints a fairly clear picture. We believe our research is accurate and that the market will do exactly as we are suggesting. The only thing that we are unsure of, at this point, is where the new all-time high price level will peak.
Our ADL predictive modeling system is providing some guidance in regards to this peak level. We will continue to provide further guidance and research as these price swings continue. It would be wise to prepare to trade a tightening price channel as this pennant formation continues – then be prepared for some very big price swings in late August and all through September.
We have a good pulse on the major markets and can profit during times when most others can’t which is why you should join my Wealth Trading Newsletter for index, metals, and energy trade alerts.
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these super cycles are going to last years. These super cycles starting to take place will go into 2020 and beyond which we lay out in our new PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
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Chris Vermeulen
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/30.png430700adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-06-20 10:32:262019-06-20 10:32:26Small Caps May Lead A Market Rally
Our advanced predictive modeling system is suggesting a defined range for the NQ over the next 30 to 60+ days before a bigger breakout move is expected. If you’ve been following our research, you already know we have been predicting the NQ to move in a sideways pennant formation. Our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting the NQ will stay within a defined price range over the next 30 to 60 days.
The upside price bias we are predicting is based on the ADL modeling systems suggestion that an upward price bias is inherent in the markets. You’ll see from the charts below that two different predictive results are driving our interpretation currently.
One result is predicting an upward price bias over the next 2 to 4 months whereas the second result is predicting a sideways price result over the same period of time.
Our conclusion is that the NQ will likely trade in a sideways pennant formation over this span of time before a breakout price move happens.
Our research continues to suggest a price peak may happen in August or September of 2019. We believe this peak aligns with our cycle research as well as aligns with our suggested pennant formation pattern. We believe the peak that forms near August or September will likely result in new all-time price highs. That breakout to new all-time highs will likely be the end of the move higher for now. After our expected price peak sometime near September, we believe the markets will turn lower with a possible move of -10% to -15% or more.
This two-week bar chart of the NQ highlights our ADL predictive modeling results. You should be able to see the yellow dashed lines on this chart showing what we believe will be price support above 6800. we’ve also drawn lines on the chart highlighting where the pennant formation price rotation will likely take place. Over the next few weeks, we expect the NQ price rotation to stay between 6800 and 7500. This range presents an incredible opportunity for traders to trade this rotation.
This NQ monthly chart highlights to ADL predictive modeling results showing two separate ADL predictions. Our researchers use these results to create a combined consensus expectation for the markets. This particular NQ monthly chart suggests there is a strong upward price bias over the next 2 to 3 months. Combining this upward bias with our expectations of price support near 6800, we conclude that a sideways price rotation should be expected with a fairly volatile price range.
Please take notice of the upper yellow dashed lines of 8000. These ADL predictive levels suggest that the NQ will likely attempt a move above 8000 sometime in August or September of 2019, then move dramatically lower as price attempts to revert back to the 7500 level – or lower.
It is critically important for traders to understand the future price expectations of the NQ and the US stock market. Having knowledge of future price activity, like our ADL predictive modeling can produce, allows traders to plan for and execute strategic trading strategies.
Once the peak in August or September is reached, skilled traders should begin to prepare for a bigger downside price move which may last many months. Initially, our expectation is a move back to 7500. Our longer-term research and cycle analysis suggest prices may move much lower – possibly towards 6000 or lower.
We have a good pulse on the major markets and can profit during times when most others can’t which is why you should join my Wealth Trading Newsletter for index, metals, and energy trade alerts.
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these super cycles are going to last years. These super cycles starting to take place will go into 2020 and beyond which we lay out in our new PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
Happy Trading!
Chris Vermeulen
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/1.png387700adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-06-16 17:18:492019-06-16 17:18:49ADL Predicts Expected Range Of The NASDAQ Before Breakout
As we’ve been warning over the past few weeks and months, the current price rotation in the US stock market is very much related to the strength of the US Dollar and the continued Capital Shift that is taking place as trade issues and currency valuations drive investors into the US equity and debt markets as protection against risk. We talk about some of these new Super-Cycles starting and how we can take advantage of them in this new guide.
The US Dollar stalled today after a recent price decline from just above $98 to a current level near $96.60. Over the past 15+ months, the US Dollar has risen from lows near $88 to highs near $98 – an 11.2% price rally. Meanwhile, many other foreign currencies have collapsed over this same span of time.
We believe the continued Capital Shift is driving further investment in the US stock market and debt market as a way to avoid the risks of further currency valuation declines and as a means of protecting wealth. Until this currency dynamic changes, we expect the strength of the US economy and US Dollar to continue to push investors into the US equity markets.
This being said, a very interesting dynamic is starting to set up. Gold and Silver have started to move higher while Oil, Natural Gas and other commodities are pushing lower. This type of activity in the commodity markets suggests some increased fear is driving investors away from speculating on increased global economic activities and pushing capital into expectations of a market top or deeper correction.
We’ve read recently where institutional traders have started initiating heavy short positions in the US markets and we believe these investors have jumped the gun a bit. We don’t see how or where a massive US market collapse is likely given the current strength in the US Dollar and the US economy. Yes, at some point this dynamic may shift and at some point, we may see a fairly deep correction of 12% to 18%. We believe that a top may happen in August or September 2019 – after the US stock market (DOW) reaches new all-time highs above $30k.
Right now, we believe the first rotation of our expected Pennant/Flag formation is starting to set up and we look for early signs in the DOW and TRAN charts.
This TRAN chart shows price rotation near the CYAN resistance level originating from the late April peak and spanning the early May price high. We believe this resistance level may play a key role in understanding how and when the next upside price leg begins to advance. We expect a downside price rotation to take place pushing the TRAN towards the $9600 level over the next few days/weeks.
This YM chart highlights a similar price pattern, but clearly illustrates one key difference – the New Price High. This fundamental element of Fibonacci price theory is that any attempt to break a past critical price high which results in a “new price high” designates the current trend as Bullish. Within Fibonacci price theory, price is always seeking to establish new price highs or new price lows – AT ALL TIMES. Therefore, a new price high or new price low is very significant.
The TRAN chart may continue to consolidate below the CYAN resistance level whereas the YM chart may attempt to push higher, with a bullish bias, setting up a Pennant/Flag formation as we expect. This would indicate that even though economic and transportation expectations are waning, the bullish bias in the YM suggests the Capital Shift factor is still pushing the US stock market upward.
Pay close attention to that big blue ellipse near the top of the chart. We drew that in place many months ago as an indicator of where we believe critical resistance is should the markets attempt to push higher and attempt new all-time highs.
We still believe this resistance is valid and as price rotates into the Pennant/Flag formation, we’ll extend this resistance forward – carrying the same slope and angle forward. If the YM is going to attempt a move to above $30k before our expected August/September 2019 top setup, it will have to push well above this resistance zone to accomplish this move.
Watch Gold and Silver over the next 3 to 4 weeks as any perceived weakness will push the precious metals higher still. We believe Gold will reach $1450 this summer and possibly higher before August as smart money rotates into the safe havens in anticipation of a bear market.
If you wanna become a technical trader with use and trade ETFs then be sure to join our Wealth Building Newsletter today and get our daily video analysis and swing trade alerts. In the past 17 months, our newsletter trade signals have generated 91% ROI for its subscribers, be sure to join before the markets start making new big moves and profit with us!
Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/29.png387700adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-06-13 11:38:152019-06-13 11:38:15US Stock Market Setting Up A Pennant Formation
