Posts

Gold Stock About To Rally While Oil Becomes Less Than Worthless, What?

Another great morning talking with the team at TraderTV.live

These guys are nothing short of incredible traders, educators, and entertainers. If you want a morning trading show that timely, gives out trade ideas, and will make you laugh, this is it, guys!

I keep pounding my fists on the table hoping people can see what I am trying to warn them about, which is the next major market crash, much worse than what we saw in March. See this article and video for a super easy to understand the scenario that is playing out as we speak.

If you want to learn more about the Super-Cycles and Generational Cycles that are taking place in the markets right now, please take a minute to review our Change Your Thinking – Change Your Future book detailing our research into these super-cycles.  It is almost impossible to believe that our researchers called this move back in March 2019 in our book and reports.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is going to be an incredible year for skilled traders.  Don’t miss all the incredible moves and trade setups.

Subscribers of my ETF trading newsletter had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over in February, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way with TLT bonds for a 20% gain. Yesterday we closed out SPY ETF trade taking advantage of this bounce and our account is at another all-time high value. Exciting times for us technical traders!

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts. These simple to follow ETF swing trades have our trading accounts sitting at new high water marks yet again this week, not many traders can say that this year. Visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.

We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Is Stock Market Volatility About to Spike Higher than March?

A very interesting setup is currently taking place in the VIX chart with our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system that has us quite concerned.  The Daily VIX chart running our Fibonacci Price Modeling system, which is one of our primary price modeling tools, is suggesting upside price targets for the VIX near 110, 134 and 158.  The reason these levels are extended into future price expectations is because of the recent explosion in volatility over the past 90 days.

Yet, the real concern originates from the question “what would it take for the VIX to rally to these levels and is this a real possibility in the current global markets?”.  So, we attempted to answer that question by attempting to identify what it would take for the VIX to skyrocket above 110 in the near future.

Before we continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX) DAILY CHART

First, pay attention to this VIX Daily chart and the targeted levels above 100.  Please understand that in order for the VIX to skyrocket higher reaching levels above 100 would require another massive downside price move in the US and global markets – something unexpected and very dramatic.  Is this an unrealistic expectation given the current global market environment headed into Q2 and Q3?  We really don’t believe it is an unrealistic potential expectation at this point.

We’ve recently authored a series of articles suggesting the global markets are marching through a human psychological process related to the virus event (crisis).  Somewhat similar to the “Grieving Process”, a crisis event prompts a similar set of human emotions ending in an angry and helpless feeling.  We believe this early stage crisis event process has positioned the global markets clearly within the Denial and Stigmatization phase of the crisis event. These are the Second and Third human responses to a major crisis event (Source: www.orau.gov/).

If we are correct and the markets are reacting to the Denial and Stigmatization phases of this virus event, then the next transitional phases are Fear and Withdrawal/Hopelessness.  Could this transition into a more fearful human instinct prompt a massive collapse in the US and global markets?  If so, what would be the cause of this transition into fear?

We believe the transition may come from the continued economic strain that is likely to become very evident in Q2 and Q3 of 2020.  Right now, the US stock market is only -10% to -15% from recent all-time highs.  The reality of the virus event for traders is that this is only a minor blip in the markets so far.  Yes, the markets fell much lower recently, but traders/investors have shrugged off the real risks and put their faith into the US Fed and global central banks to navigate a successful recovery.  What if that doesn’t happen as we expect?

What if the real numbers for Q2 and Q3 come in dramatically lower than expected?  What if global GDP contracts by -10% or -15% for the next 12+ months?  What if consumers don’t return as quickly as we expect?

The Race To Cash and Bonds Again: I talked with Cory Fleck from Korelin Economics Report today. Listen to our thoughts on the race to the safe-haven assets, bonds, and cash. What about gold and gold stocks? These have been more correlated to the US markets but the charts of the major stocks and gold are still very bullish.

CLICK TO HEAR OUR CONVERSATION

WEEKLY DOW (YM) CHART

Take a look at this Weekly YM Chart and pay attention to the downward sloping price channels that help guide us to a conclusion.  Additionally, the Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is showing us a new target near 12,475.  If this is accurate, then a breakdown in price over the next 6+ months may push the YM to levels near 12,500 (-50% from the recent peak in April 2020).  A move like this would certainly prompt a massive increase in the VIX and would frighten traders, investors, and consumers into a “helplessness” mentality.  What can you do when the markets are collapsing like this except wait for the bottom.

The one thing we can be certain of is that at long as humans exist on this planet, economies will continue to function at some level.  Being human in today’s world means we engage in economic activity and trade.  Therefore, we believe there is a moderate risk that the US and global markets have completely misinterpreted the true price valuations and expectations based on this research.  Simply put, we believe a Denial phase has taken root where investors and traders simply deny and ignore the real potential for future collapse.

I keep pounding my fists on the table hoping people can see what I am trying to warn them about, which is the next major market crash, much worse than what we saw in March. See this article and video for a super easy to understand the scenario that is playing out as we speak.

If you want to learn more about the Super-Cycles and Generational Cycles that are taking place in the markets right now, please take a minute to review our Change Your Thinking – Change Your Future book detailing our research into these super-cycles.  It is almost impossible to believe that our researchers called this move back in March 2019 in our book and reports.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is going to be an incredible year for skilled traders.  Don’t miss all the incredible moves and trade setups.

Subscribers of my ETF trading newsletter had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over in February, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way with TLT bonds for a 20% gain. Yesterday we closed out SPY ETF trade taking advantage of this bounce and our account is at another all-time high value. Exciting times for us technical traders!

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts. These simple to follow ETF swing trades have our trading accounts sitting at new high water marks yet again this week, not many traders can say that this year. Visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.

We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Must Watch Market Analysis Videos: Gold, Silver, S&P500, Oil

Here are a few of the best videos right now on where the financial markets are going next and how to trade them stress-free and with a trading plan.

This covers the S&P500, bonds, gold, silver, miners, natural gas, and crude oil

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL MARKET TOP

KILLER MARKET ANALYSIS ON PREDICTING PRICE THIS WEEK

HOW TO TRADE THE MARKETS, AND WHEN DO METALS GO BALLISTIC?

I have to toot my own horn here a little because subscribers and I had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark for our accounts. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way, and yesterday we locked in more profits with our SPY ETF trade on this bounce.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is going to be an incredible year for skilled traders.  Don’t miss all the incredible moves and trade setups.

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts. These simple to follow ETF swing trades have our trading accounts sitting at new high water marks yet again this week, not many traders can say that this year. Visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.

We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

The Fed Induced Twilight-Zone

The past three weeks have been filled with intense drama, incredible highs and lows, political battles that continue to this day, and millions of questions from people throughout the world.  Throughout this COVID-19 virus event and the collapse of the US and global markets, one continued belief has prevailed – the US Fed will attempt to rescue the global markets (again).

Late last week, President Trump announced a task force to evaluate how and when to reopen the US economy and more than US nine states have already committed to a staged reopening process.  COVID-19 virus being what it is, the US is going to attempt to lead the way forward.  This means every resource and every effort will be taken to engage in a proper process to protect our future while battling this virus outbreak.

This was also a pivotal week for the US Stock market. With the US Fed in buying mode attempting to counter the recent weakness in the markets, literally trillions of dollars have poured into the US stock market over the past 5+ days.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 532 points (+2.2%).  The NASDAQ rallied 581.50 points (+7.06%). The S&P 500 rallied 89.25 (+3.2%).  Obviously, capital is pouring into the NASDAQ faster than the other major indexes and this suggests investors believe in the earnings and future capabilities of technology companies over more traditional market segments.

Continued global economic weakness and shuttered US states will have a chilling result on Q2 outcomes and revenue growth.  We continue to believe Q2 and Q3 of 2020 will be much weaker than investors are expecting and we believe the US Fed has lulled many investors into believing a “deep V bottom” is the most likely outcome.  Over time, we believe the loss of 20+ million working Americans and the destruction of the shuttered global economy will translate into much weaker global market price levels.

Before we continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

NASDAQ (NQ) WEEKLY CHART

This NQ weekly chart highlights the real potential for downside risks.  The appreciation in price from the 2016 levels are a direct result of investor anticipation of growth after the 2016 election.  What’s changed is that a major risk to the markets has unraveled more than all the growth we’ve accumulated over the past 2+ years.  Investors should stop to consider the real economic outcome over the next 2+ years before jumping into the Fed-backed Twilight Zone.

As the total scope of the global economic environment continues to shift, it does make sense that certain technology companies may benefit from any type of extended virus event.  Gaming companies, technology suppliers and resellers, certain software companies and a host of streaming and content firms may gain users and incomes over the next 12+ months.  Yet, we continue to believe the COVID-19 virus event may continue to present risks in the markets going forward.

The NY Federal Reserve issues a GDP Nowcast which attempts to translate forward economic GDP outcomes in near-real-time.  The current level for Q1 2020 GDP is -0.4% and -7.9% for Q2 2020.  This suggests the second, and possibly third, quarters could be substantially weaker overall than what we’ve just experienced over the past 50+ days.    Even though the stock markets began to collapse on February 25, 2020 – we really didn’t begin to understand the total scope of the economic contraction until nearly the middle of March (very late in Q1).  Q2 may reflect the complete global economic burden of this virus event and we believe investors are failing to comprehend the total scope of this risk at the moment and how it relates to future earning capabilities.

Weakness in Q2 and possibly Q3 earnings for 2020 could have a shock-wave across many sectors of the US and global markets which we are somewhat blindly ignoring.  Asset values, belief in a “V” type bottom setup, lack of disruption for state and local governments and others seem to continue to be the prevailing attitude.  With the US Fed to the rescue, somehow investors seem to believe the recovery process will only take a few weeks or a few months.

We found this information very interesting in terms of how local governments generate revenues and how the virus event may present a very real 20 to 40% revenue contraction for state and local governments over the next 24+ months.  Based on this data, nearly 40 to 50% of annual revenue to state and local governments may be at risk.  When we consider the 20+ million people in the US that have recently filed for unemployment (nearly 6% of the total US population and 8% of the total working population), we can’t expect a stellar economic output.

S&P 500 (ES) MONTHLY CHART

This ES Monthly chart highlights our expectation that the US Stock market will attempt to establish a deeper bottom in price that may take the form of a FLAG formation setup.  We don’t believe the continued disruption to the global markets will do anything to support the past 3+ week recovery in the US markets.  Global investors will likely end up backing the US as the leader in this recovery, yet we believe the actual bottom in the markets will take place over the next 12+ months and likely complete just before the November 2020 elections.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Our proprietary modeling systems have reflected the recent strength in the US stock market adequately – yet they have failed to result in any changes regarding allocation into the markets.  For right now, everything stays the same as it was.  We do believe the Fed’s buying will potentially prompt a “false trigger” if the rally continues.  We will assess the trigger when and if it happens in the near future.

Until we get a more accurate understanding of the risks, we feel it is much safer to assume the worst-case scenario going forward.  There is simply no way to paint a positive picture when people throughout the globe are losing their jobs, incomes, and all sense of normalcy.  The reality is that this disruption in the global banking and financial sector is certainly a big one that could last well into summer. If you read this article or watch the video you will understand the magnitude of this market top that looks to be forming.

As of right now, skilled investors are preparing for a potentially deeper price bottom and watching what is happening in the markets with interest – waiting for the right trigger to jump on the next big trend.

I have to toot my own horn here a little because subscribers and I had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark for our accounts. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way, and yesterday we locked in more profits with our SPY ETF trade on this bounce.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is going to be an incredible year for skilled traders.  Don’t miss all the incredible moves and trade setups.

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts. These simple to follow ETF swing trades have our trading accounts sitting at new high water marks yet again this week, not many traders can say that this year. Visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.

We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Banking & Finance Expected To Get Crushed

Big news out today on CNBC about Gilead drug cured all 125 people from serious COVID-19 conditions within 5 days, This is amazing to hear, stocks are popping today up 3-5% which is to be expected for this type of news but the damage to the financial markets has already been done.

But early data recently published suggests the Banking and Finance sector may continue to get crushed under a massive weight of real losses and exposure to risk in the Derivatives Markets.  As with the 2008-09 Credit Crisis, Derivatives losses extended compound risk factors by 10x to 20x or more for in some instances.  We believe the banking and finance sector may be setting up for a massive implosion if global derivatives implode as leveraged accounts collapse.

Two very interesting news articles that may assist readers in understanding the current Financial market contagion event are:

Bank Earnings Armageddon by TheInstitutionalRiskAnalyst.com

Xi fears Japan-led manufacturing exodus from China by Asia.Nikkei.com

The Chinese/Asian economy is built upon the premise that global demand will continue without interruption over the next many decades.  Additionally, China and Asia have leveraged capital systems and financial functions by deploying a very shadowy measure of lending and banking functions.  We’ve all heard the stories of how collateral-based loans were offered many times over as stock in Copper or other raw materials were simply moved from one location to another to secure loans on the same material.

As with any great Ponzi scheme – it all starts to collapse when investors decide they don’t want to play games any longer.

FEDERAL RESERVE – RETAIL & FOOD SERVICES SALES

These recent St. Louis Federal Reserve charts paint a fairly clear picture that retail and food services sales have collapsed to below levels of 4+ years ago – and this is just getting started.

FEDERAL RESERVE – BORROWER DELINQUENCY RATE

This next chart shows that sub-prime borrower delinquency rates have already peaked above both the 2000 and 2008-09 peak levels.  The current virus event collapse is a completely different beast of destruction than what we’ve experienced before.

This is why we believe the Banking and Financial sectors are about to get hammered over the next 6+ months as a massive credit and debt deleveraging process continues to take place.  Consumers recently displaced from the workforce will suddenly find themselves without the ability to pay their bills and credit card balances.  This is not just happening in the US or select areas – this is happening throughout the world right now.  Banking and Finance are staring into a black hole in terms of just how big and destructive the displacement of consumer jobs/earnings capacity really is.

We believe the recent recovery in the US stock market was a reactionary event prompted by the US Fed stepping in to “stick their finger in the dike” as an effort to thwart the downside price collapse.  When the reality of the situation really begins to settle in about 60 days, banks and other financial institutions are going to have a difficult time explaining losses and exposure to derivatives risks that were clearly evident in March and April 2020.

Before we continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

WEEKLY CHART – NASDAQ REGIONAL BANKING INDEX

This first Weekly chart of the NASDAQ Regional Banking Index shows just how destructive the initial downside price move has been.  Even though the US Fed stepped in with a massive $5+ trillion rescue plan, the recovery in this sector has been minor.  We believe that is because most investors understand the true risks in this sector are likely in the hundreds of trillions range with derivatives and leveraged positions.

UCC WEEKLY CHART – CONSUMER SERVICES SECTOR

This UCC Weekly chart shows a bit more of a recovery after the US Fed stepped in to save the day.  Yet, we fully believe a deeper price low is likely to set up as the full extent of total newly unemployed put additional strains on expectations.  Consumers without income can suddenly collapse multiple trillions in credit/debt over a very short period of time.

XLF FINANCIAL SECTOR WEEKLY CHART

The XLF Financial Sector Weekly chart paints a very clear picture of the downside risks current in play.  After a massive initial collapse, a brief sideways recovery has taken place.  Yet the true risk for this sector takes place over the next 24+ months as these newly displaced workers attempt to manage with little or no income and attempt to satisfy debt levels that were acquired expecting pre-2020 income expectations.  New cars, new homes, new credit card debt, new everything purchased on credit has suddenly become the beast that destroys the financial/banking sector.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Our researchers believe the true scope of this crisis won’t be known for at least another 30 to 60+ days.  The closer we get to the end of Q2, the more likely we are to see real data reflecting real risks in the Banking and Financial sectors.

Until we get a more accurate understanding of the risks, we feel it is much safer to assume the worst-case scenario going forward.  There is simply no way to paint a positive picture when people throughout the globe are losing their jobs, incomes, and all sense of normalcy.  The reality is that this disruption in the global banking and financial sector is certainly going to be a big one that could last many months or years and if you read this article or watch the video you will understand the magnitude of this market top that looks to be forming.

I have to toot my own horn here a little because subscribers and I had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark for our accounts. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way, and yesterday we locked in more profits with our SPY ETF trade on this bounce.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is going to be an incredible year for skilled traders.  Don’t miss all the incredible moves and trade setups.

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts. These simple to follow ETF swing trades have our trading accounts sitting at new high water marks yet again this week, not many traders can say that this year. Visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.

We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

The Next Big Breakout Trade: Large Cap Gold Stocks

This technical analysis video I put together has a lot of great trading opportunities in it while providing a lot of educational content to help you see the markets and trade in a way that will reduce your risk/exposure when needed.

I use my BAN trading strategy which is I focus on the Best Asset Now and only trade the sector, index, or commodity that has the least risk and most upside potential at the current moment.

I won’t lie, im super picky and conservative so trades are few and far between but as a swing trader, or any trader for that matter, the quality of a trade alert trumps quantity. Watch this video below and see what I provide my subscribers every morning before the opening bell. If you like it, then join us and become a technical trader today!

Before we continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

I have to toot my own horn here a little because subscribers and I had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark for our accounts. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way, and yesterday we locked in more profits with our SPY ETF trade on this bounce.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is going to be an incredible year for skilled traders.  Don’t miss all the incredible moves and trade setups.

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts. These simple to follow ETF swing trades have our trading accounts sitting at new high water marks yet again this week, not many traders can say that this year. Visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.

We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

If Investors Crunched Data This Their Expectations Would Change Dramatically

New economic data being released as earnings start to hit may alter how investors perceive the recent price recovery in the US and global markets.  Many institutional analysts began suggesting “the bottom is in” and recently began to issue stronger forward guidance.  The new data suggests we are seeing an economic contraction that, in some cases, maybe 2x or 3x the contraction that took place in the 2008-09 Credit Crisis.

The US stock markets reacted to this news and earnings data by collapsing over -2% in early trading.  Gold and Silver are both lower as we write this article which would indicate weakness across the broader market.  We continue to believe a deeper price low will set up in the near future with the US and global stock prices attempting to retest recent price lows – possibly falling below these levels.  We believe the collateral damage to consumer engagement, manufacturing, transportation, retail/leisure, real estate and other sectors of the economy is just now starting to become evident.  What the economy may look like near Mid-May is anyone’s guess.

MANUFACTURING OUTPUT INDEX

One of the most interesting data items published recently in the US Manufacturing Output Index which reported at -6.3%.  This is the largest downside (negative) print going back over 20 years.  It is nearly 2x larger than the deepest levels from the 2008-09 Credit Crisis and nearly 6x the levels of the 2001 9/11 terrorist attacks.  This time it really is different.

Before we continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

Source: https://www.investing.com

NEW YORK EMPIRE STATE MANUFACTURING INDEX

The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index was no different – posting a level at -78.20%.  This massive negative number is nearly 2x the deepest levels printed during the 2008-09 Credit Crisis and clearly illustrates how the COVID-19 virus event has disrupted manufacturing output across the globe.  Depressed manufacturing translates into decreased shipping, decreased supply, decreased demand, and decreased overall economic engagement (employment, support services, taxes, and others).  A number similar to the lows of 2008-09 would be sufficiently terrible.  A number that is 2x below the lowest levels in 2008-09 is absolutely destructive to forward expectations.

Source: https://www.investing.com

NAHB REAL ESTATE INDEX

Real estate is starting to feel the pinch too.  The NAHB Real Estate Index came in at 30.  The only times in history where this level has been reached were September 1990, October 2006, and June 2007.  These areas in history clearly point to an early recession indicator in the markets.  We found it interesting that September 2001 (9/11) didn’t experience any major downside print in the NAHB index.  The lowest level reached after 9/11 was 46 (November 2001).  The current 30 level is shocking.  If history is any indication of what to expect in the future, this real estate index may attempt to set up an extended bottom near or below 15 to 20 over the next 12+ months.

Source: https://www.investing.com

REDBOOK INDEX

Lastly, the Redbook Index – which printed a level of -8.3.  This index of over 9000 retail locations is one of the broadest market indicators of consumer/retail-based activity in the US.  Obviously, with the shutdown taking place within the US and across the globe, we were not expecting any type of fantastic number. Yet our concern is that consumer engagement continues to slowly emerge from the shutdown over the next 12+ months and the collapse in retail may become prolonged

Historically, this is the deepest level printed on the Redbook Index since 2008-09.  We believe the continued shutdown and disruption to traditional manufacturing, supply and retail will continue to present very negative outcomes for global economic measures.  Thus, we believe the risks to the US and global stock market are still very real for skilled traders.

Source: https://www.investing.com

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

The US Fed and global central banks are doing everything possible to support a shocked global economy – yet they can’t print enough money to replace the global activity of consumers, manufacturers, and traditional economic functions. They can just attempt to “patch things up” while they wait for consumers and manufacturers to begin operating near-normal levels.

It is very important for skilled traders to understand the bigger economic risks that are at play and to understand the process of price moves within the current market cycle.  I was recently interviewed about my market opinions and stated very clearly how investors could fall into a “suckers rally” trap.  Listen to my talk here.

Be prepared for more downside risks and a potential for a much deeper price bottom over the next 6+ months.  Those individuals/firms suggesting “the bottom is in” are certainly jumping the shark, in our opinion, right now.  It’s a pretty big event to come out right now and tell investors “buy these dips because we believe the US Fed has everything under control”.  Be cautious and use your own skills to wait for a proper bottom setup.

I have to toot my own horn here a little because subscribers and I had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark for our accounts. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way, and yesterday we locked in more profits with our SPY ETF trade on this bounce.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is going to be an incredible year for skilled traders.  Don’t miss all the incredible moves and trade setups.

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts. These simple to follow ETF swing trades have our trading accounts sitting at new high water marks yet again this week, not many traders can say that this year. Visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.

We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Could This Be a “Suckers” Rally?

Everyone I know who is not involved in the stock market or has little knowledge about it is calling me and asking what stocks, indexes, and commodities to buy because everything is so cheap and dividends are juicy again.

Just look at the market sentiment chart, and price cycles that the stock market goes through, and listen to my talk below while reviewing these to images. It’s not rocket science, but the lack of education on the financial markets coupled with the force of greed to make money and miss out on the next big bull market has everyone getting suckered into this dead-cat bounce, also known as a bear trap, bear market rally.

LISTEN TO MY TALK – CLICK HERE

If you want to see something else really exciting/nerve-wracking/ and real check out this post on the Stock Market Top.

A subscriber to my market video analysis and ETF trading newsletter said it perfectly:

“Always intrigues me how many amateur surfers get to the north shore beaches in Hawaii, take one look at monster waves and conclude it’s way too dangerous. Yet the amateur trader looks at treacherous markets like these and wants to dive right in!!” Richard P.

I have to toot my own horn here a little because subscribers and I had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark for our accounts. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is going to be an incredible year for skilled traders.  Don’t miss all the incredible moves and trade setups.

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts. These simple to follow ETF swing trades have our trading accounts sitting at new high water marks yet again this week, not many traders can say that this year. Visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.

We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Downside Opportunities Everywhere – Watch These Symbols

As the global markets enter the Q1 earnings season where a host of new data and expectations will flood the markets over the next 30+ days, skilled traders should put these three symbols on their watch-list over the next few days and weeks.

We’ve been writing about how we believe the downside risks within the US and global stock markets are still very real.  Many industry analysts believe the bottom has set up in the US stock market already – we don’t believe this is the case.  Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system continues to suggest a deeper downside move is in the works and we believe this potential retest of recent lows will setup another incredible opportunity for skilled traders.

Recently, we’ve posted a number of research articles to help you understand what is really taking place in the global markets.  The COVID-19 virus has set-off a consumer demand contraction event that will ripple across all sectors of the global economy.  There is no other way to interpret the data right now – if consumers don’t come back into the economy at levels near the late 2019 engagement levels, then the global economy will continue to contract.  Consumers make up over 85% of GDP values.

HERE ARE SOME OF OUR MOST RECENT ARTICLES TO ASSIST YOU…

Now, onto the three symbols setting up an incredible upside opportunity if the global markets rotate lower as our predictive modeling is suggesting…

FAZ – DIREXON INVERSE FINANCIAL SECTOR ETF

The first symbol is FAZ.  This ETF moves higher as the financial sector stocks move lower.  These include banks, financial institutions, and other financial services companies.  The reason we believe FAZ has a potential to move higher is that we believe the lack of consumer engagement in retail, restaurants, leisure shopping and other types of normal spending activities will put incredible pressure on business loans, consumer loans, commercial and residential real estate, business credit lines and many other aspects of the financial sector.  Simply put, it would be foolish to think that some level of default and/or extended risks would not come from any type of consumer disengagement from the economy.  Again, consumers make up over 85% of the total GDP levels.  If we take away even 20% to 30% of these consumers, we could see a dramatic collapse in certain sectors of the economy.

Thus, we believe the Financial sector is poised for another downside price move which will prompt a rise in FAZ from current levels to near $50~$60.  This represents 65% to 85%+ upside potential.

Before we continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

MZZ – PROSHARES ULTRASHORT MIDCAP 400 ETF.

The MidCap sector is uniquely vulnerable to any economic contraction related to consumer activity.  Many of the Midcap companies are uniquely consumer-based and/or consumer sector related.  Thus, should another market downtrend attempt to retest recent lows or attempt to set up a deeper price bottom, the Midcap 400 ETF may see an incredible upside price move.  Upside price targets are near $29 to $30 – which is 55% to 65% higher than the current price level. Ultimately, any deeper price lows set up because of a deeper price bottom setting up in the US and global markets could push MZZ well above $35.

QID – PROSHARES ULTRASHORT QQQ ETF

The last symbol we believe could see a big upside move related to increased future risk in the US and global markets is QID – the NASDAQ Inverted ETF.  The reason we believe risks in the US and global major markets may bleed over into this ETF is that the NASDAQ has been a major component of US & foreign investment over the past 24+ months.  Global investors continue to believe that technology firms will out-perform the general market – thus, more capital has poured into this sector of the market over the past 20+ months than many other sectors.

This capital influx also creates an opportunity for contrarian traders if the markets fail to recover – as many people believe will happen.  This capital that has recently poured into the NASDAQ may become “at-risk” if another deeper downside price move takes place.  Investors may have hard stops in place and forced selling may take place if the markets attempt to establish a deeper price bottom in the near future.

Conservatively, an upside price move in QID to levels near $27 (45%) is the first Fibonacci target. Further upside target levels near $30.50, $42.50 and $44.25 also exist. Of course, these higher target levels would be the result of a much deeper global market collapse where a deeper bottom in price is established.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

We believe these three symbols present very real opportunities for skilled technical traders.  Wait for the right setup and confirmation before jumping into these trades. If the US and global markets begin to move lower on poor earnings or economic data, jump over to these charts to see how they are reacting to price weakness.  There is a very real opportunity for 20~40+% profits in each of these charts with the right setup in place.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is going to be an incredible year for skilled traders.  Don’t miss all the incredible moves and trade setups.

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts. These simple to follow ETF swing trades have our trading accounts sitting at new high water marks yet again this week, not many traders can say that this year. Visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.

We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

AI Fibonacci Modeling Predicts $26 As Next Silver Target

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system incorporates an intelligent “Inference Engine” into internal decision-making and future analysis.  This type of “Adaptive Learning” is one of the core elements of Artificial Intelligence – the ability to read inputs, adapting to price structures and setups and infer expected outcomes/results based on a complex decision-making process.  Today, we are alerting you that our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting $26 is the next target level for Silver (which is currently trading near $15.65).

Learning how to interpret the data presented by our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is simple – it does the internal analysis automatically and presents future target levels and trigger levels on the charts as lines and blocks.  Trigger levels are set up as both GREEN and RED lines for current Bullish and Bearish Trends.  Each of these trends also has target BLOCKS drawn out into the future representing where the Adaptive Fibonacci system believes the next price target will be located.  These target levels are determined by the Adaptive Learning Inference Engine and represent the best outcome of the true Fibonacci price structure we can deliver.

WEEKLY SILVER CHART

This Weekly Silver chart highlights the incredible +66% upside opportunity setting up based on our research.  Silver continues to underperform compared to Gold and it continues to be overlooked as a safe-haven metal.  Back in September 2019, we authored this article suggesting Silver would become the “Super-Hero” of precious metals.  That research is still very valid today.

This Weekly Silver chart highlights our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system’s results and clearly shows you the upside price target near $26.  We believe the US and Global stock markets may continue to weaken as earnings and forward guidance continue to rattle investors’ expectations.  This uncertainty will translate into a continued upside price rally in Metals.  Gold will obviously lead the way higher, yet we believe the sleeper metal is Silver.  Once silver clears recent highs near $19.75, be prepared for an incredible parabolic upside move.

DAILY GOLD CHART

The other aspect of this move is that Gold will continue to move higher as well.  The next upside target for gold is $1840, followed by a brief pause in price, then a continued rally to levels near $2000.  If you think the metals rally it sputtering out right now, we urge you to reconsider your thinking.

Before we continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

WEEKLY GOLD CHART

Precious metals will likely continue to rally higher and higher, eventually entering a parabolic upside price rally, as global concerns reach a peak.  After the US and Global stock markets set up a real price bottom, metals will continue to rally for 8 to 12+ months after that bottom has setup.  Metals are about to become one of the fastest-growing assets on the planet and may not stop until well into 2021 or 2022.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Do yourself a favor and take a minute to review some of our most recent market research and really prepare for the rally in metals.  That last Weekly Gold chart highlights what we believe will be the initial upside price rally (in YELLOW) and shows how Gold will target $2000, then briefly pause, then attempt another upside move to levels above $2300.  Our real upside price target for the long-term Fibonacci peak in Gold is near $3750 – that should tell you something really important.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is going to be an incredible year for skilled traders.  Don’t miss all the incredible moves and trade setups.

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts. These simple to follow ETF swing trades have our trading accounts sitting at new high water marks yet again this week, not many traders can say that this year. Visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.

We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.